"
Du er her: Forside > In the pit - Oslo Børs > REC -- bunnen nådd for oppkjøpskandidat?
REC -- bunnen nådd for oppkjøpskandidat?
highlander
26.07.2016 15:46
#6278

Endre
Som forventet bunnet REC ut på 1,40-tallet. Det har vært en rekyl til foreløpig cirka 1,64 (sist onsdag) - etter det har REC flere ganger klart å løfte seg så vidt over 1,60, men ikke klart ny topp - ei heller ny bunn, så inntil videre ligger aksjen og konsoliderer mellom cirka 1,50 og 1,60...
highlander
09.08.2016 17:15
#6309

Endre
Friskere takter i REC igjen de siste dagene, så den forventede rekylen kom til slutt. Aksjen sluttet i dag på 1,685. Den indilerte bunnen satt på 1,40-tallet den dagen Q2-tallene kom stod seg altså fint. :)

Anbefaler en relativt tight trailing stop om man ikke har tatt gevinsten allerede.
highlander
11.08.2016 14:06
#6320

Endre
Ser ut som om 1,685 ble toppen i denne omgang. Nå er REC på vikende front igjen...

Sparebank1 Markets er negative til aksjen i en oppdatering, gjentar salg og opererer med et kursmål på 1,20.

highlander
05.09.2016 21:51
#6403

Endre
Swedbank har nedgradert REC fra "strong buy" til "neutral", samtidig som kursmålet tas ned fra 2,70 til 1,50 kr.
OldNick
05.09.2016 23:02
#18298

Endre
Polysilicon-markedet har fått mer og mer karakteristika som et råvare-marked, hvor konkurrentene produserer et produkt med omtrent samme specs til samme marked.

Et slikt marked opplever utrolige svingninger i pris-syklusen, hvor prisene på toppen kan tilsvare bunn-prisen flere ganger (flere-100% pris-økninger).

Det kan være prisdifferanse å hente (premiums) dersom en aktørs produkt har en/flere kvaliteter som distanserer dem fra konkurrentene, men generelt er det å ha de laveste produksjonskostnadene som avgjør konkurranse-kraften for det enkelte selskap.

Og for REC er det fluid bed reaktor-teknologien (FBR) som fortsatt gir REC kostnadsfordelene fremfor de (fleste andre) konkurrentene som anvender Siemens-teknologien.


I PV-solar industrien har det dessverre oppstått tekniske handelshindre som import-toll i noen markeder, men de vil jeg tro vil bli redusert/eliminert med tiden.

Foreløpig er det overskudd fra poly-produsentene, og det presser prisen fortsatt i den lave enden slik at den beveger seg ned i 3 kvartil på cash cost kurven. Det er typisk i en overskudd-situasjon.



Polysilicon-industrien cash cost kurve, slik REC Silicon så det i Q2-rapporten


Hvor lang tid vil det vare inntil det blir underskudd på poly-silicon, det er det store spørsmålet for industrien og REC?

(Da vil aksjen "ta av", eller 6-9 mnd før vil den begynne å bevege seg.)

Torvund indikerte tidligere i år (var det under Q4-2016 eller Q1-2016?) at dette punktet kunne nås til vinteren. Denne gangen var han ikke like klar, og årsaken var at etterspørselen i China var forventet ned i H2 vs. H1-2016, på tross av ny installasjonsrekord globalt (ca. 67GW forventet i 2016), med sterk vekst i "the Americas".

Vi kan vel konkludere med at Torvund og REC ikke forventer at markedsbalanse inntrer i 2016.

Endret 05.09.2016 23:07 av OldNick
mabimb
08.09.2016 09:08
#196

Endre
Er det noen som har gode råd.Sskal det kjøpes eller selges.
mabimb
09.09.2016 09:41
#197

Endre
Stille som i graven.
OldNick
09.09.2016 10:11
#18316

Endre
Mitt eneste råd: La ikke REC bli en for stor del av din portefølge.

For min del: <1%

Jeg venter på boom'en som kommer når det blir underskudd i markedet, da vil vi kunne se 4-5 gangen for REC (tror jeg).

Ellers vil jeg kjøpe litt til ved disse kursene.
mabimb
09.09.2016 10:45
#198

Endre
Takker
OldNick
11.09.2016 11:14
#18320

Endre
Her er et par artikler om markedsutsiktene for 2017.

Ser ikke ut som om vi kan forvente underskudd i 2017 heller. Ting tar tid dersom veksten avtar.

Det kommer fortsatt til å bli tøffe tider fremover for REC og resten av polysilikon-produsentene, dessverre.

Dette er realitetene investorer som investerer i markeder som ikke er frie, men sterkt forstyrret av politikk med subsidier og skatteinsentiver som ikke er langlivede (en politikers horisont er som kjent kun frem til neste valg).

Solar industry set for renewed oversupply and shakeout

Sam Pothecary, PV Magazine
June 02, 2016

The first half of 2016 has seen unprecedented levels of PV installations driven by China, and it will be China that causes a dramatic slump in global demand for solar PV cells and modules in the second half of the year. IHS Technology expects this to cause sharp price declines, which will be a gut check for a number of PV companies, which means a shakeout is probably on the horizon.

China installed close to an almost unbelievable 13 GW of PV in the first half of 2016, as PV developers scrambled to put their projects in place before the feed-in tariff drop in China on June 30, 2016. However, to balance out these huge numbers, PV installations are expecting to fall by 80% in the third quarter of the year, with the Chinese government's goal to keep installations below 20 GW for the year.

As China pulls back its installations, prices are expected to plummet, which can already be seen in the industry, as prices for modules that will ship in the second half of 2016 will be as little as $0.44 per watt. To add to the strain that the PV industry will be placed under, huge expansions of production capacity will add to the oversupply, dragging the prices down further.

"After a crazy PV expansion (15 GW of cell ; 18 GW of module) from China PV makers, solar cell and module production capacity of China and Taiwan is expected to reach 76.5 GW and 80.4 GW at the end of this year while the forecast of global PV installation is in the range of 65 GW - 69 GW," said Morgan Kuo, global PV strategic marketing manager at Heraeus.

It's not just in China that the demand is slowing, but the U.S. market is experiencing similar pullbacks. In the U.S. though, this is not a result of a reduction of installations, but instead it's because of high inventories, after large numbers of Chinese modules were shipped there in 2015. On top of this, the extension of the investment tax credit past 2016 has caused developers to extend plans to complete solar projects into 2017.

Long-term effects

These factors combined will put a huge strain on PV module suppliers, who are already in financially precarious situations, and will most likely lead to a shakeout and consolidation in the industry. However, the industry has seen this before, and while there may be some short-term negative effects, it is unlikely that they will be too severe, or last for too long.

"Everyone lived the hangover from Italy in 2011 for a long time, that was a solid two-year oversupply and it was quite pronounced," Andy Klump, CEO of Clean Energy Associates, told pv magazine. "I don't think we are at that level of irrationality, but I do think there will be a bit of an oversupply. But once again, we have seen this cycle play out several times in the solar market and we will see supply pick up in 2017, so it is a question of what kind of uptick we will see with lower pricing. But there will always be a lag effect for demand to catch up."

The long-term effects could actually benefit the solar industry, as prices are likely to stay lower, leading to cheaper solar power. "The oversupply issue occurs again this year. But it is good to reduce the cost of solar energy and will increase the RE share in the global electricity demand in the near future," added Kuo.

Endret 11.09.2016 11:14 av OldNick
OldNick
11.09.2016 11:15
#18321

Endre
H2-2016 solar slowdown will preface 10% global contraction in 2017, says GTM

Ian Clover, PV Magazine
Aug. 03, 2016

The latest Global Solar Demand Monitor from GTM Research forecasts a drop in solar installations globally in the second half (H2) of 2016 as the markets in China, Japan and the U.K. plummet following a strong first six months.

The report also forecasts a global market slowdown in 2017 of around 10% below 2016's expected cumulative figure of 73 GW. However, recovery thereafter will be steady and sustained, GTM Research believes, culminating in a global market growing by around 105 GW by 2021.

In assessing current trends in the global solar market, GTM Research identified five drivers that will shape the remainder of the year, prefacing next year's mild contraction in global installation rates.

The most obvious and widely expected shift for H2 is the deceleration of installation pace in China as the world's largest and most dynamic solar market engineers an 11% FIT pullback. Over the course of the first half of the year, PV installations in China surged to record levels, with the month of June alone seeing 10 GW of new capacity installed nationwide - near enough 50% of what had been initially expected for the entire year.

However, on June 30 the FIT was reduced significantly; a move that will trigger a stark drop-off in installations, particularly in the three leading solar provinces, GTM Research believes.

Aping this trend are the solar markets of the U.K. and Japan, with the former on the go-slow following a record-breaking Q1 in which 1.5 GW of new PV capacity was added. Following the cessation of the ROC scheme on April 1, there has been a major drop in demand for new large-scale solar capacity, with GTM Research seeing no new utility-scale projects set to come online for the remainder of the year. Regressive FIT policies in the distributed generation markets will also suppress growth.

Japan, meanwhile, will experience a "sharp negative turn" in H2 following the introduction of new government FIT rules that could eliminate up to 30% of the country's 56 GW pipeline of approved projects. Annually, GTM Research is forecasting a 12% year-over-year market contraction for Japan.

Taking up the baton

The blow of these lost GWs from three of the largest solar markets globally will be softened by triple-digit growth in the solar markets of the U.S. and India, the GTM report confirmed, with the extension of the ITC deadline shoring up the U.S.'s place as a top three market through to 2021.

A notable trend in the U.S. market is this project spillover triggered by the ITC extension, with GTM Research actually revising downwards its 2016 forecast to 14.5 GW as around 60% of utility-scale projects initially slated for this year are held back until 2017. The U.S. has now surpassed one million solar installations and boasts cumulative installed capacity of 27.5 GW.

India's solar garden appears rosiest, with GTM's projected 127% growth this year enough to see the country supplant the U.K. as the fourth biggest PV market globally.

Endret 11.09.2016 11:15 av OldNick
OldNick
11.09.2016 11:15
#18322

Endre
The Indian solar pipeline stands at 25 GW, of which a further 3.8 GW is expected to be commissioned over the second half of this year.

Extrapolated over the entire year, GTM's report shows that China is on course to grow by 26.4 GW this year, followed by the U.S. (14.5 GW) with Japan in third place (10.2 GW).

A massive 80% of global solar installations will this year be centered on these five countries (China, U.S., Japan, India and the U.K.), but that dominance will be eroded between now and 2021 as LatAm leads the charge (reaching cumulative installed capacity of 26 GW by that date) followed by Southeast Asia (23 GW) and the MENAT region (19 GW).
______


Oppsummert installert kapasitet, 5 største globalt (GWp) pr. 2015:

China: 43.5 GW
Tyskland: 39.7 GW
Japan: 35.4 GW
USA: 25.6 GW
Italia: 19.2 GW
______


Utvikling for kapasitetsfaktor for PV-sol og vind-energi, globalt:





Kapasitetsfaktor = Produksjon [GWh] / ([kapasitet [GWp] x 24 x 365)


Kommentar: Man kan si at utviklingen i kapasitetsfaktor over tid viser "industrienes læringskurve", og den er positiv :-)


Ref: BP Statistical Review

Endret 11.09.2016 11:18 av OldNick
OldNick
23.09.2016 08:29
#18368

Endre
Resultat varsel fra REC.

Priskrigen de har prøvd å intensivere for å ta markedsandeler, har slått tilbake på dem selv.

REC: REC Silicon ASA Trading Update

Børsmelding
23.09.2016

Fornebu, Norway - REC Silicon ASA (REC Silicon) reports that due to ongoing negative effects from the trade war between the US and China and the recent decline in PV market conditions, lower sales than previously anticipated have occurred in the third quarter. As a result, third quarter polysilicon sales volumes (excluding fines and powders) are now expected to be approximately 1,800 MT.

There continue to be ongoing negotiations between the US and China towards a resolution of the trade war. But, as it is a political process, timing and outcome of such a resolution remain uncertain.

Third quarter revenues are currently expected to be USD 45-50 million, compared to USD 71.1 million in the previous quarter. The decrease in revenue can be mainly attributed to lower FBR sales volumes.

REC Silicon's cash balance as of September 22, 2016 is USD 81 million.

Third quarter total polysilicon production volumes (excluding fines and powders) are forecasted to be roughly 3,900 MT, compared to guidance of 4,490 MT. FBR production is forecasted at 3,300 MT, compared to guidance of 3,830 MT. FBR cash cost is expected to be in line with guidance of USD 12.0/kg.

Semiconductor production and silicon gas sales volumes are expected to be in line with guidance of 250 MT and 800 MT respectively.

The company is taking measures to maintain a healthy cash position and manage inventory levels. The company will adjust production capacity utilization according to market demand and currently anticipates running at approximately 50% of full capacity at Moses Lake by October 1, 2016. Production is expected to run at reduced rates until market conditions improve. The company will continue to limit capital expenditures to critical maintenance.

Semiconductor polysilicon and silicon gas production in Butte will be unaffected, as those product lines are not affected by the solar trade war or the recent negative PV market developments.

Construction and spending on the Yulin joint venture plant remains on track for start-up in the second half of next year. With regard to the company's joint venture payment obligations, the relevant agreements permit deferral of the $15 million second capital contribution until at least July 2017, and negotiations are underway with the joint venture partner to defer the company's second and third capital contributions, totaling $169 million, beyond 2018. Without a resolution to the trade war and if REC is unable to make its contributions, the agreements also permit the company to forego making its remaining contributions, in which case, its equity position in the joint venture would be diluted accordingly.

Third quarter results as well as fourth quarter guidance will be given on November 2, 2016.

For further information, please contact:
James A. May II, CFO, Phone: +1 509 989 1023, Email: james.may@recsilicon.com
Chris Bowes, IR, Phone: +1 509 793 8127, Email: chris.bowes@recsilicon.com
Nils O. Kjerstad, IR Contact Europe, Phone: +47 9135 6659 , Email: nils.kjerstad@crux.no
highlander
28.09.2016 15:37
#6446

Endre
Det har vært blodig i REC etter resultatvarselet, og meglerhusene har også blitt mer lunkne til aksjen:

HSBC har nedgradert sin anbefaling på REC fra kjøp til hold, og redusert kursmålet fra 2,40 til 1,10 kr.

Storbanken Citi har meldt at de avslutter dekningen av aksjen, og oppgir at de ønsker å bruke analytikerressursene andre steder.

Pareto Securities opprettholder kjøpsanbefalingen, men har nedjustert kursmålet fra 1,80 til 1,30 kr pr aksje.

Swedbank har nedjustert kursmålet fra 1,50 til 1,00 kr pr aksje.
Profitt
28.09.2016 22:08
#14873

Endre
Får nok et oppsving over ei krone imorgen 👍
OldNick
03.10.2016 14:16
#18390

Endre
Iflg. denne artikkelen fortsetter China å kutte i solsubsidiene.

Og de har litt å kutte, hvis det er riktig at den har vært US$0.42/kWh produsert fra PV-sol anlegg.

Det tilsvarer jo 0.42 x 8 = NOK3.36 pr kWh.
Helt meningsløst, og kan forklare hvorfor China's solindustri har vokst til å tilsvare ca. 20% av verdens installerte kapasitet, og har over 50 ganger (5 000%) de siste 5 årene.

Men hvorfor gråte?

Forståsegpåere påstår jo at PV-solindustrien skal være lønnsom uten subsidier?? Hohoho

Kina kutter subsidiene på sol - igjen?

Vi ser effektene nå, sier Tom Hauglund


Odd S. Parr, Hegnar.no
03.10.2016

I dagens markedsrapport tar investeringsøkonom Tom Hauglund i Nordnet utgangspunkt i Kinas kutt i subsidieordningene på sol 1. juli i år.

- Vi ser effektene av det nå. Lagrene er fulle, ettersom produsentene ønsket mest mulig solpanel før kuttet i subsidieordningene ble iverksatt. I etterkant er etterspørselen kraftig ned, og mer enn markedet fryktet. Silisiumprisene har falt over 25 prosent i sommer, og faller hver uke, skriver han.

- Dette er selvsagt fryktelige nyheter for REC Silicon, som nettopp startet opp produksjonen igjen, fortsetter Hauglund.

Og nettopp sommerens kraftige prisfall var bakgrunnen da selskapet fredag 23. september måtte sende ut et resultatvarsel.

Nye Kina-kutt?

Fredag viste så Reuters til et oppslag i Shanghai Securities Times, der Kina foreslår kutt i subsidieordningene med ytterligere 40 prosent. Dagens subsidie på 0,42 dollar per kwh foreslås kuttet til 0,20 dollar per kwh.

- Dette er ikke videre hyggelige nyheter, verken for Paris-avtalen eller REC Silicon. Morgan Stanley mener nå at Kinas statlige subsidiefond er 55 milliarder yuan i minus (ca. 8,25 milliarder dollar). De kinesiske energiselskapene falt 10 prosent på nyhetene, fortsetter Hauglund.

REC Silicon faller 2,2 prosent til 1,08 kroner i mandagens handel på Oslo Børs. Etter at aksjen ble sendt ned i 95 øre i kjølvannet av resultatvarselet, har den altså likevel steget 13,6 prosent.

Endret 03.10.2016 14:16 av OldNick
highlander
11.10.2016 15:07
#6477

Endre
Sparebank 1 Markets har kommet med nok en analyseoppdatering på REC der de gjentar salg og reduserer kursmålet i REC Silicon, denne gangen til 0,80 kr pr aksje...
highlander
27.10.2016 15:38
#6530

Endre
Arctic Securities har redusert kursmålet i REC Silicon fra 1,60 kr til 1,20 kr i en analyseoppdatering.

Meglerhuset har nå en hold-anbefaling på aksjen.
OldNick
02.11.2016 08:40
#18490

Endre
REC Silicon kom med Q3-2016 rapport idag.

Salget er kraftig ned, men på linje med resultatvarselet.
De har produsert mye for lager før de tok ut kapasitet.
De har redusert cash-beholdning, og vil foreta nye kostnadsreduksjoner og vil redusere bemanningen med nye 70 personer.

Ingen lystelig rapport fra Torvund, dette. Det er en knalltøff business i polysilikon-markedet med kinesisk overkapasitet de dumper i vesten.

REC: REC Silicon - Q3-2016 results

Børsmelding
02.11.2016

Fornebu, Norway - REC Silicon ASA (REC Silicon) reported third quarter revenues of USD 50.9 million, compared to USD 71.1 million in the previous quarter. The lower revenues are primarily a result of the disruption of the solar grade polysilicon market due to the expiration of the 2015 feed in tariffs in China, which affected the entire value chain. The ongoing solar trade war between the US and China also continues to restrict REC Silicon's access to polysilicon markets in China. The corresponding EBITDA during the third quarter was a loss of USD 7.9 million compared to a loss of USD 14.3 million in the previous quarter.

The company also reported a September 30, 2016 cash balance of USD 86.8 million.

Q3 polysilicon sales of 1,775 MT were in line with guidance given in the September 23, 2016 Trading Update. Finished goods inventory increased by 2,132 MT during the third quarter.

Silicon gas sales volumes increased to 772 MT compared to 610 MT in the prior quarter.

In order to maintain liquidity and manage inventory, the company is announcing additional cost cutting initiatives and has reduced production capacity utilization to approximately 50% at the Moses Lake facility. As part of the cost cutting initiatives, the company is announcing a reduction in headcount of approximately 70 employees. "We have been successful in maintaining sufficient liquidity during this period of market disruption. Because of our efforts to control costs, I expect REC Silicon to remain a low cost leader in the polysilicon industry, even at reduced production rates." said Tore Torvund, CEO.

The Yulin joint venture plant remains on target for start-up in the second half of 2017. With regard to the company's joint venture payment obligations, the relevant agreements permit deferral of the $15 million second capital contribution until at least July 2017, and negotiations are underway with the joint venture partner to defer the company's second and third capital contributions, totaling $169 million, beyond 2018. Without a resolution to the trade war and if REC is unable to make its contributions, the agreements also permit the company to forego making its remaining contributions, in which case, its equity position in the joint venture would be diluted accordingly.

For more information, please see the attached third quarter 2016 report.

A live webcast from the presentation can be accessed at www.recsilicon.com or the following link: http://webtv.hegnar.no/presentation.php?webcastId=40091939

For further information, please contact:
Chris Bowes, IR, Phone: +1 509 793 8127, Email: chris.bowes@recsilicon.com
Nils O. Kjerstad, IR Contact Europe, Phone: +47 9135 6659, Email: nils.kjerstad@crux.no


REC: Q3-2016 Report (PDF)

REC: Q3-2016 Presentation (PDF)
highlander
02.11.2016 10:59
#6550

Endre
Analysering er en ganske så subjektiv oppgave:

Pareto - som har anbefalt kjøp - mener at Q3-rapporten til REC Silicon i sum er positiv mens SP1M (som har anbefalt salg) mener at den var negativ. Pareto vil øke sine estimat for 2017 etter rapporten mens SP1M vil redusere det. (Kilde: Xi)
Utmothavet
02.11.2016 11:16
#11697

Endre
higlander
Her er mere fra Pareto analysen


REC Silicon (REC) just published its Q3'16 results, with an EBITDA loss of USD 8m, versus consensus at a
loss of USD 2m and us at break-even. Revenues were reported at USD 51m for the quarter, in line with
consensus, and the deviation is thus explained by higher cost for non-FBR products, as FBR cash cost at
USD 9.9/kg was stronger than expectations at USD 12/kg. The cash position at the end of Q3'16 stood at
USD 87m, better than our assumption of USD 81m, despite lower result, on further net working capital
release. As a consequence of adverse market conditions, the company will reduce headcount by 70
employees, targeting a USD 11/kg FBR cash cost from Q1'17 despite running at 50% utilization at Moses
Lake. It has also taken a USD 79m impairment in the quarter due to this. Polysilicon demand expected to
recover in H1'17, but uncertainty remains for H2'17, which will be dependent on the FiT regime in China.
In sum, a positive report on a stronger cash position and targeted lower cash cost, which all else equal
will lift our EBITDA'17e from USD 27m to USD ~35m. We have a Buy recommendation and a target price of NOK 1.3 for REC.

Q3'16 results
 REC realized revenues for Q3'16 of USD of 51m, above the indications given at the trading update in
September in the range of USD 45-50m
 EBITDA came in at a loss of USD 8m, versus consensus at a loss of USD 2m and our assumption of
break-even due to higher non-FBR costs, as FBR cash cost came in at USD 9.9/kg
 Cash position at the end of Q3'16 stood at USD 87m, stronger than our assumption of USD 81m on
further net working capital reduction
 The company includes a USD 79m impairment due to the adverse market conditions

Outlook
 The company sees polysilicon demand recovering in H1'17, but uncertainty in H2'17 depending on
the FiT regime in China
 Due to the market conditions, REC will reduce headcount by 70 employees, thus targeting an FBR
cash cost of USD 11/kg despite running at 50% utilization at Moses Lake
 An FBR cash cost of USD 11/kg all else equal lifts our EBITDA'17e from USD 27m to USD ~35m
highlander
02.11.2016 11:39
#6552

Endre
Takk for det, Utmothavet.
highlander
06.11.2016 17:00
#6557

Endre
Pareto Securities har økt kursmålet i REC fra 1,30 til 1,40 etter resultatfremleggelsen, samtidig som kjøpsanbefalingen opprettholdes.

Sparebanken 1 Markets, derimot, har gjentatt sin salgsanbefaling, men oppjustert kursmålet fra 0,80 til 1,00 kr.
mabimb
01.12.2016 09:53
#199

Endre
Er det noen som har noe nytt ang. denne spende aksjen.
highlander
08.12.2016 17:26
#6683

Endre
REC har endelig løftet seg opp fra avgrunnen, og opplevd et par gode dager, så forhåpentligvis er det verste unnagjort.

Swedbank har omsider oppgradert sin anbefaling på REC til kjøp, og satt et kursmål på 1,6 kr.



Stocktalk.no eies av MarketMind AS
Adresse: Thunesvei 2, 0274 Oslo Tlf: 21 07 50 08 Email: st [at] stocktalk.no Orgnr: 979 175 027 MVA
Kontakt oss | Hjelp | Regler | Sett som startside | Legg til favoritter © 2008 Vestover AS