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USA - DOW JONES - SP500 - NAS - NR 77
Beins
14.12.2015 19:34
#8334

Endre
Hvorfor et fallende junk-bond marked ikke betyr økonomisk nedgang eller resesjon. En ekspert forklarer.
Beins
15.12.2015 09:47
#8336

Endre
Det interessante nå er om SP satte en bunn i går på 1993 - før den gikk opp til 2021 og avsluttet sterkt.

Nå er futtene positive i øyeblikket (+12), og det KAN være en indikasjon i positiv retning. Om ting faller på plass, er det muligheter for en mer positiv utvikling fram mot jul og nytt år.

Men da må oljeprisen ikke falle mer. Oljenæringen er så viktig i USA nå at prisnedgang slår negativt ut på børsen.
blåball
15.12.2015 10:13
#2142

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Oljenæringen i USA er stor , men ikke i forhold konsumbasert økonomi i USA .

Men som all " råvareindustri " generer oljenæringen en rekke arbeidplasser og service næringer , og i enkelte delstater er dette alfa og omega .

I tillegg sliter kullindustri .

KINA setter sin valutakurs stadig lavere mot Dollaren , og dette gir FED ( Yellen utfordringer , som etter min mening gir ett fortsatt lavt rentenivå i USA og resten av Verden flere år til .

Storbankene vil nok ha ett høgere rente nivå i USA , men dei tjener nok på høyrente obligasjoner og trading posisjoner i markedet , etter min mening .

En gradvis men sein BNP utvikling i USA , tisier ett lavt rentenivå flere år fremover . ( Store investeringer innen innfrastruktur og økte kostnader til energigjenvinning til ett bedret klima mål på " Verdens temparatur mål , jamfør Paris avtale / ambisjoner ).
Beins
15.12.2015 15:36
#8339

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Tilnærmet rakettstart på SPX i dag - opp 24 poeng til 2045 nesten på direkten. Dette kan antyde at 1993 var bunnen i denne runden

falitt
16.12.2015 17:46
#21958

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Nå kommer sannsynsligvis renteøkningen i USA. Litt merkelig denne oppgangen i USA. "Vanlige folk" merker lite til den, på tross av arbeidsledighet som stadig går ned, tilsynelatende.

Tilsynelatende fordi
"The labor force participation rate hit a 38-year low in September and October, with just 62.4% of American civilians older than 16 either working or looking for work. It has since improved marginally, to 62.5% in November.
---
Til sammenligning er tilsvarende i Norge på 74,3%, i arbeid...

Betyr dette at mange rett og slett har gitt opp, og melder seg ut av samfunnet ?

Endret 16.12.2015 17:46 av falitt
LinPiao
16.12.2015 20:03
#2417

Endre
Endelig hever FED renten i USA etter sju år med nullrente. Enda bedre: De varsler fire renteøkninger neste år. Ting begynner endelig å ligne på en normal verden.

Det samme er utenkelig i Europa. Men historisk ligger vi tre kvartaler bak USA i denne syklusen, selv om det virker rart i dag.
delta
16.12.2015 20:55
#21850

Endre
FED signalene i kveld må vel være noe av det beste aksjemarkedet kunne tenkt seg (jf. sakset fra marketwatch.com):

Yellen: Fed can be prudent about future interest rate hikes

Yellen says Fed confident new tools can move interest rates up 'smoothly'

Yellen says 'neutral' level of fed funds rate is unusually low

Policy remains easy despite rate hike, Yellen says

Delaying rate hike would just have meant abrupt tightening later, Yellen says

Yellen says Fed hiked because it believes low inflation is temporary

Yellen says some Fed members lowered their estimates of full employment

Yellen says factors holding down inflation will 'fade'

Yellen says risks from global economy have lessened

Yellen says some cyclical weakness remains in labor market, cites low wage growth

Yellen says future rate hikes will proceed gradually, but adds caveats

Yellen says Fed confident economy will continue to strengthen

-----
Yellen: 'Entire' Fed committed to achieving 2% inflation goal

Yellen: If inflation does not act as expected, that would give Fed pause

Yellen: No simple formula on inflation for what is needed for Fed to hike again

Yellen: All oil prices need to do is stabilize for impact on inflation to wash out

Yellen: We do need to monitor inflation carefully

Yellen: Fed will not focus on short-term market volatility

Yellen: Fed would keep an eye on 'persistent' market developments

Yellen: Underlying health of U.S. economy is 'quite sound'

Yellen: It is a 'myth' that economic expansions falter because of old age

Yellen: Negative rates is something the Fed could study

Yellen: Size of balance sheet might end up being larger than pre-crisis level

Yellen: It would be nice to get fed funds rate to level so it can respond to downturn

Endret 16.12.2015 21:13 av delta
Beins
16.12.2015 20:57
#8350

Endre
falitt

Ulike målemetoder gir ulike svar. I USA tar man med alle de gamle i beregningen, dvs befolkningen over 16 år utgjør nevneren.
I Norge stopper man ved 74 år og får en lavere nevner.

ILO har sammenlignet land og brukt en og samme metode - de fikk 63% deltakelse i USA og 65% i Norge i 2013.

Endret 16.12.2015 20:56 av Beins
Beins
16.12.2015 22:08
#8353

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delta

Aksjemarkedet responderte meget positivt på Yellens outlook og kommentarer for øvrig - SPX opp 1,45% til 2073 .

Plutselig er man kun snaue 3 % fra ATH (2135) igjen. Det svinger.

Endret 16.12.2015 22:12 av Beins
delta
17.12.2015 22:15
#21853

Endre
Du verden for et kortsiktig fokus investorene på NYSE har. Opp mye i går og litt mer ned i dag enn oppgangen i går. Verden ser vel lik ut nå som for 24 timer siden. Mulig investorene er treige i nøtta og vingler i synspunktet om framtiden fra dag til dag. Det har vel vært ventet volatilitet i tiden rundt FED beslutningen, og i morgen kan det vel også bli mye volatilitet med store opsjonsforfall (triple switch..et eller annet).
Beins
18.12.2015 22:31
#8382

Endre
Nok en begredelig dag i USA - SPX nå nede i 2006 igjen og har mistet 67 poeng på et par dager. Ganske nervøst med andre ord.

Så lenge SPX holder seg over 1993 foreligger et positivt scenario, mens fall under vil gi et mer negativt bilde.

Blir interessant å lese Caldaros ukentlige oppdatering.
delta
18.12.2015 23:37
#21855

Endre
Mye volum i dag og de siste par dager forut, og mye av det kan visst henge sammen med quadruple "witching" (the expiration of three related classes of options and futures contracts, along with individual stock futures options) i dag. qw skjer en gang i kvartalet, og den i desember er visst den største. Jeg ser at noen mener man ikke skal legge for mye vekt på utviklingen på børsen i dag som følge av det.

Endret 18.12.2015 23:38 av delta
Beins
19.12.2015 15:24
#8387

Endre
Jeg ser at Caldaro forventer at nedgangen vi ser nå, vil utfolde seg noe lenger slik at vi får nye kortsiktig bunner.
Vi får se.

highlander
29.12.2015 00:41
#5253

Endre
USA-børsene hentet seg greit inn i forhold til hva de var på da Oslo Børs stengte. Dow, Nasdaq og S&P500 endte bare marginalt ned, hhv. 0,14, 0,14 og 0,19 %.
highlander
29.12.2015 00:46
#5254

Endre
Da jeg var inne på Marketwatch.com i kveld fant jeg dette:

Opinion: The four biggest geopolitical risks in 2016

China, Russia, the Middle East and cyberspace threaten global order

CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (Project Syndicate) - The end of the year is a good time to consider the risks that lie ahead of us. There are of course important economic risks, including the mispricing of assets caused by a decade of ultra-low interest rates, the shifts in demand caused by the Chinese economy's changing structure, and European economies' persistent weakness.

But the main longer-term risks are geopolitical, stemming from four sources: Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace.

Although the Soviet Union no longer exists, Russia remains a formidable nuclear power, with the ability to project force anywhere in the world. Russia is also economically weak because of its dependence on oil revenue at a time when prices are down dramatically. President Vladimir Putin has already warned Russians that they face austerity, because the government will no longer be able to afford the transfer benefits that it provided in recent years.

The geopolitical danger arises from Putin's growing reliance on military action abroad - in Ukraine and now in Syria - to maintain his popularity at home, using the domestic media (now almost entirely under Kremlin control) to extol Russia's global importance. Russia also uses its gas exports to Western Europe and Turkey as an economic weapon, although Turkey's recent decision to source gas from Israel shows the limits of this strategy. As Putin responds to this and other challenges, Russia will remain a source of substantial uncertainty for the rest of the world.

China is still a poor country, with per capita gross domestic product at roughly a quarter of the U.S. level (on the basis of purchasing power parity). But, because its population is four times larger, its total GDP is equal to America's (in PPP terms). And it is total GDP that determines a country's ability to spend on military power, to provide a strategically significant market for other countries' exports, and to offer aid to other parts of the world.

China is doing all of these things on a scale commensurate with its GDP. Looking ahead, even with the more moderate growth rates projected for the future, China's GDP will grow more rapidly than that of the U.S. or Europe.

China is now expanding its strategic reach. It is asserting maritime claims in the East and South China Seas that conflict with claims by other countries in the region (including Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam). In particular, China is relying on the so-called "nine-dash line" (originally created by Taiwan in 1947) to justify its claim to most of the South China Sea, where it has created artificial islands and asserted sovereignty over their surrounding waters.

The U.S. characterizes China's policy as "anti-access area denial": an effort to keep the U.S. Navy far from the Chinese mainland and therefore from the coasts of America's allies in the region.

China also is expanding its geopolitical influence through initiatives like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, aid programs in Africa, and its "One Belt, One Road" plan to establish maritime and territorial links through the Indian Ocean and Central Asia, extending all the way to Europe. The current Chinese political leadership wants a peaceful and cooperative relationship with the U.S. and other Western countries.

But, looking to the future, the challenge for the U.S. and its allies will be to deter future generations of Chinese leaders from adopting policies that threaten the West.

[fortsetter]

Endret 29.12.2015 00:46 av highlander
highlander
29.12.2015 00:47
#5255

Endre
[fortsatt]

In the Middle East, much of the world's focus has been on the threat posed by ISIS to civilian populations everywhere - including Europe and the United States. But the bigger issue in the region is the conflict between Shia and Sunni Muslims, a divide that has persisted for more than a thousand years. For most of that time, and in most places, the Shia have faced discrimination - and often lethal violence - at the hands of Sunnis.

Thus, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-ruled Gulf states view Iran, the region's Shia power, as their strategic nemesis. Saudi Arabia, in particular, fears that Iran wants to settle old scores and attempt to shift custodianship of Islam's holy sites in Mecca and Medina to Shia control. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran would also be a fight over the vast oil riches of the Arabia Peninsula and the enormous financial wealth of small Sunni states like Kuwait and Qatar.

The final source of risk, cyberspace, may soon overshadow all the rest, because borders and armies cannot limit it. The threats include denial-of-service attacks on banks and other institutions; unauthorized access to personal records from banks, insurance companies, and government agencies; and industrial espionage.

Indeed, widespread theft of technology from U.S. companies led to a recent agreement between China and the U.S. that neither government will assist in stealing technology to benefit its country's firms.

These are important issues, but not nearly as serious as the threat that malware poses to critical infrastructure - electricity grids, air traffic systems, oil pipelines, water supplies, financial platforms, and so on. Recent cases of malware use have been attributed to China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea. But states need not be involved at all: Individuals and nonstate actors could deploy malware simply by hiring the needed talent in the international underground marketplace.

Cyber weapons are relatively cheap (and thus widely accessible) and capable of reaching anywhere in the world. They are the future weapons of choice for attacking or blackmailing an adversary. And we still lack the ability to block such attacks or to identify unambiguously their sources.

These four sources of risk constitute an unusually serious set of geopolitical challenges. By highlighting them, I don't mean to downplay the importance of other issues - U.S. monetary policy, weak commodity prices, debt crises, and the like - that are likely to affect the global economy in the year ahead. What's special about the threats emanating from Russia, China, the Middle East, and cyberspace is that they will persist and threaten our economic future for years to come.
Beins
29.12.2015 00:48
#8409

Endre
Børsene utviklet seg brukbart de, selv om makro er inne i en litt laber periode. Det følger av CFNAI-indelsen for november der vi ser en utvikling litt under trendvekst.

OECD ser USA i en posisjon med vekst litt under trend i noen måneder, jfr siste konjunkturrapport

Beins
29.12.2015 16:32
#8412

Endre
Vi ser noen kjøpssignal på SPX - RSI > 50 og MACD-kryss.

Dersom SPX klarer å gå gjennom toppene fra sist - den første er på ca 2075 - så blir bildet mer avklart i positiv retning.

Beins
29.12.2015 20:10
#8415

Endre
Stadig bedring i chartet med 2080 nå.
Ett viktig motstandsområde er tilbakelagt.
Beins
31.12.2015 17:05
#8425

Endre
Makro i USA - ikke alt er helt bra på den fronten. Chicago PMI for november var en skuffelse.
Også børsene viser litt usikkerhet akkurat nå, jfr chartet over.

"Economic activity in the Midwest contracted at the fastest pace in more than six years in December, according to the Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI.

The index fell to 42.9 from 48.7 in November. Economists had expected it to rise 1.3 points to 50 in the December reading. The index has spent much of the year below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. "

MW 31.12

Endret 31.12.2015 17:05 av Beins
Beins
04.01.2016 16:42
#8435

Endre
USA åpner kraftig ned. SPX negativ med 45 poeng eller 2,2 % i øyeblikket.
Det store fallet på Shanghai-børsen har skremt investorene.
Shanghai ned 6,89%.

Dermed var stigningen til 2080 kun midlertidig, og vi får vente til ny bunn er satt.

Noe svakere makro i USA pluss utfordringer i Kina kan potensielt ryste børsene en del i 2016.
delta
04.01.2016 16:52
#21877

Endre
Mye av årsaken til stupet på Kinabørsene kan visst være spekulasjon om at børsen der vil tynges når 6 mnd fristen for salgsforbud for en rekke store eiere utløper, og det ventes salgspress når de får anledning til fritt å selge sine aksjer. Hvis da Kina ikke forlenger det kunstige forbudet.
renud
04.01.2016 17:41
#11345

Endre
delta
Eller hvis da ikke disse "storinvestorer med eierskap på over fem prosent" benytter børsfallet til heller å øke sine posisjoner.
Beins
06.01.2016 21:17
#8450

Endre
Når korreksjonen fortsatte etter en for så vidt fint plassert bunn på 1993, tok det naturlig nok noe tid før den nye bunnen er inne.

Nå i kveld har SPX vært nede i 1979. Ifølge Caldaro bør vi forvente at bunnen blir satt om relativt kort tid.

Det er et negativt overheng i forhold til OSE. Det kan gi noen svake timer i morgen.

Endret 06.01.2016 21:28 av Beins
OldNick
07.01.2016 18:31
#17684

Endre
UBS mener det globale aksjemarkedet allerede er inne i et bearmarked.


UBS thinks the global bear market has already begun

Joshua Brown, "The Refomed Broker", BusinessInsider
Jan. 07, 2016

In a 39-page report overnight, UBS technical analysts Michael Riesner and Marc Müller make the case that the global stock market is already in a bear market and that the few remaining soldiers still on their feet will eventually fall. These last few un-corrected markets - Japan, US large caps and European Small/Mid caps -may run on a bit further, but the seven-year cycle demands an end to the bull that began in 2009.

There's a lot of nuance to the call, of course, but the below introductory paragraph covers the basics. One thing I should mention - I read technical notes from all over The Street and from among my friends in the financial blogosphere every week. I can't remember the last time I read a bullish one. Virtually none of the technicians I follow believe that last year's 13% correction in the S&P 500 was the correction.

Here's the note:

S&P-500 trades in 4th longest bull market since 1900 Bear markets are defined by a market decline of 20% and more. It's a fact that since its March 2009 low, with 82 months and a performance of 220%, the S&P-500 now trades in its 4th longest and 5th strongest bull market since 1900. So from this angle alone we suggest the 2009 bull cycle has reached a mature stage.

Having said that, if we look at equities globally the picture looks more diverse. Last year we said we think the May top in the MSCI World represents a major equity top. Our view is unchanged, and in this context it is important to understand and sort in the extent of last year's summer correction. In the MSCI World universe, we saw in 20 out of 48 markets a correction of 20% and more (DAX -25%), which is per definition bear market territory. The MSCI Emerging Market has been factually trading in a bear market since 2011 but from its May top alone the EM complex lost another 28% into its late August low!

Together with the 200-day moving averages rolling over in more and more markets globally, the break of the 2011 bull trend in the Russell-2000 and the equally weighted Valueline-100 index in the US, as well as intact sell signals in our monthly trend work, we can clearly say that globally, a bear market is already underway in more and more markets; whereas the S&P- 500 has just corrected 13% from its May top, and where into H1 2016 we can still see the large and mega cap driven S&P-500, Dow Jones Industrial and Nasdaq Composite to hit a new all-time high.


Josh here - UBS notes that the average cyclical bull market over the last century and change has ended with a 37% denouement for the Dow Jones Industrial Average:



Endret 07.01.2016 18:32 av OldNick



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