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KINA EN ØKONOMISK KJEMPE
dammerud
08.10.2005 00:02
#9991

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China tips $100bn trade surplus

Friday, October 7, 2005 Posted: 1302 GMT (2102 HKT)


Export goods are loaded onto a cargo vessel at Qingdao port.YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

China
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Manage Alerts | What Is This? BEIJING, China (AP) -- China predicts its trade surplus could triple to $100 billion this year, lifted by a 30 percent jump in exports, state media reported Friday.

China's Commerce Ministry warned that the surge could create new trade tensions, put additional pressure on China to revalue its currency and cause financial risks, the official China Daily newspaper reported.

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted as saying that China needed to do more to boost domestic consumption as a way to shrink the trade gap.

China's trade surplus from January to August reached $60 billion, already far exceeding the $32 billion recorded for all of 2004.

By year's end, the surplus was expected to balloon to $90 billion to $100 billion, the ministry said.

Exports have increased despite China's decision in July to make its currency, the yuan, about 2 percent stronger against the U.S. dollar, and allow it to trade in a restricted float against a basket of currencies.

Chinese textile and clothing exports have surged with the lifting of global textile quotas on January 1, and the United States and Europe have put limits on Chinese textile shipments to protect their own clothing manufacturers.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be in Beijing later this month for talks with Chinese economic officials.

U.S. officials would like to see China accelerate its efforts to allow the value of yuan set by market forces.

The U.S. trade deficit with China, which reached $162 billion last year, an all-time high with any country, has been a persistent source of irritation between the two trading powers.

tea
08.10.2005 00:10
#3355

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Dette er en tråd med mening. 1/5 av jordens befolkning i sterk vekst fortjener oppmerksomhet. Imidlertid har vi en tendens til å glemme India med sine drøye 1 mrd innbyggere. India har i flere år hatt sterk vekst, og med en gradvis åpning mot omverdenen vil landet få stor innflytelse på verdensøkonomien fremover.
Riktignok ligger de en del år bak Kina i utvikling, men de vil forlenge den perioden hvor det tilbys billige varer og tjenester til vesten, samt bidra til økte råvarepriser i mange år fremover.
Til glede for råvarebaserte økonomier som Norge....
dammerud
08.10.2005 07:31
#9992

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Til Tea.

Kina/India er også hvilken løsning på befolkningsveksten man velger eller må velge.

Kina med sine 1,4 milliarder og India med sine nå + - 1 milliard.

Man skjønte i Kina at man måtte gjøre noe med befolkningstilveksten.
Kom med en drakonisk løsning som følges strengt opp av myndighetene og som er "akseptert " av befolkningen.

. 1 barns familie med muligheter for to barn dersom det første barn var handicapped eller far og mor kom hver fra etbarns familie og for gardbrukerfamilie hvis første barn var ei pikebarn. Selektiv abort i Kina har nå ført til at ca 95 % er pikefostre ! og det mangler ca 100 million unge jenter som skulle være i produktiv alder nå !

Drastisk nedgang i befolkningsveksten og høyere levestandard + en ny økonomisk politikk har ført til den nye situasjon.

India,Pakistan og Bangladash praktiserer ikke myndighetstyrt barnebegrensing og det er en eksplosiv befolkningsøkning på det indiske kontinent og om noen få år vil India gå forbi Kina i befolkningstørrelse..

Men hvor det er muligheter for ultralyd og abort er det selektiv utvelging av jentefostre!!.

Tøft for ei jente å bli født og deretter å bli diskriminer og holdt nede.

Man bør ha dette i hodet re India/Kina.

Jan

Ps. Har reist på kryss og tvers i Kina og det er styggmye mennesker der og kineserne er virkelig arbeidsnarkomane som en rekke utenlandske bedrifter utnytter med billig arbeidskraft. Produksjonsavtalene gir Kina en bra andel av disse selskapenes fortjeneste og har du lyst å opprette bedrift i Kina er det fantastiske muligheter med et enormt indre marked og et globalt marked basert på kvalitet og pris.

Politikken har ført til enorm økonomisk vekst i urbane og industristrøk mens i utkanten og distriktene er det mye fattigdom.

Reiste i kanalsystemet og var innom små sidekanaler hvor folk bodde inntil kanalene med kloakk flytende i kanalene og tydelig fattigdom. Kjøpte noe der og alt var utrolig billig .Ikke rart med slik fattigdom.

Luksus og skyskrapere i Shanghai og Beijing.
Stort program for myndighetene og neste uke er det møte i Bejing om hvordan man utjevner dette.

Jan




[Endret 08.10.05 07:38 av dammerud]
[Endret 08.10.05 08:15 av dammerud]
[Endret 08.10.05 08:24 av dammerud]
falitt
08.10.2005 09:16
#9643

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tea:
India er et viktig poeng. Veksten overasket siste kvartal og lå over 8%. India har vel passert Kina i folkemengde også ? Om ikke, så blir det ikke lenge til. India har langt høyere tilvekst.
Det mange ikke er klar over, er at disse folkerike landene i sterk vekst, har en eksplosiv økning i handelen seg imellom.
Denne egenhandelen øker i betydning og gir relativt stor vekst selv om eksporten til Europa og USA skulle stagnere.
gorwell
08.10.2005 22:24
#6890

Endre
Kina er større enn India og kommer til å være det, i alle fall i overskuelig fremtid. Sånn 20-50 år. Skal du pukke på det og det skal du sikkert, befolkningsmessig utgangspunkt 1300 vs 1000 mill mennesker med en tilvekst på 1% for Kina og 2% for India blir antallet individer det samme etter sånn 26 år.

Samhandelen dem imellom er liten men kommer nok til å ta seg opp, ikke minst når USA går i koma.

De siste to punktum er hva verden håper vil kunne skje. Håper.

gorwell
dammerud
16.10.2005 19:28
#10065

Endre
VIA teo [1479]
16.10.05 17:35

e 2005/10/14-shana

China's Demand For Oil Pressures Global Markets: S and P

Years of heated economic growth in China has strained the country's oil resources and triggered a hunt overseas for fresh supply which is expected to continue pressuring global oil markets for decades to come, ratings agency Standard and Poors said.
China's race for resources is also fraying international tempers and is one main driver of soaring oil prices, which for months now have hovered well above 60 dollars a barrel, the ratings agency said in a report.
"This expansion strategy is already helping rattle the global oil markets and straining international relations," it said.
"This is one of the reasons for higher energy prices, which are putting pressure on those companies that use large amounts of energy."

"Helping China to satiate its energy needs without sending the global markets into shock will require international cooperation, based on recognition of mutual interest," added analyst John Bailey.

By 2030 the International Energy Agency predicts that China's imports will soar to 10 million barrels per day, accounting for 80 percent of its energy demand.
A report last month by China's National Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning body, put the estimates even higher.

"In 2010 half of China's oil needs will come from imported oil, by 2020 up to 80 percent of China's oil needs will be dependent on imported oil," it said. Analysts also widely believe that if current prices were maintained it would easily knock off one percentage point of China's high flying economy that in the first half of the year rose by 9.5 percent.
OldNick
29.11.2005 02:16
#3054

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China not manipulating currency: U.S.
Monday, November 28, 2005

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration on Monday determined that China was not manipulating its currency to gain economic advantages but still pressed the Chinese to move more quickly to allow the yuan's value to be set by market forces.

The administration's determination, made in a currency report it is required to submit to Congress every six months, was certain to disappoint critics who contend that Chinese currency practices play a large role in America's soaring trade deficits.

Treasury Secretary John Snow said China's decision to allow a small revaluation of its currency last July had been a factor in deciding not to brand China a currency manipulator, but he said more must be done.

Les mer her
gorwell
29.11.2005 02:37
#7214

Endre
Det hjelper å kjøpe et Boeing eller 50.....

gorwell
OldNick
23.12.2005 08:25
#3164

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Beijing plans curbs on metals industry

China will rein in uncontrolled growth of the metals industry and slow energy demand by halting investment in new aluminum projects and small copper smelters.

Thursday, December 22, 2005


China will rein in uncontrolled growth of the metals industry and slow energy demand by halting investment in new aluminum projects and small copper smelters.
The government will also veto investment in new mines and smelters for tungsten, molybdenum, tin, antimony and so-called rare earths, its top planning agency said Wednesday. The ban still allows spending to modernize smelters and reduce pollution, the National Development and Reform Commission said.

Premier Wen Jiabao is trying to cool excessive investment in aluminum, steel and other industries, which has driven up raw material prices, increased pollution and spurred inflation in the world's fastest-growing major economy. China makes a third of the world's steel and is the biggest producer of aluminum.

"After the rapid expansion of aluminum capacity in the past two years, the state now wants to curb investment in copper," said Ren Yunhe, copper analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Research and Consulting in Shanghai.

The mainland's spending on factories, roads and other fixed assets rose 29 percent in November, the fastest pace this year, suggesting Wen's efforts to slow investment may not be having the desired effect so far.

"Irrational investment since 2003 has resulted in excessive capacity," Liu Zhi, industrial policy director with the commission, said in Beijing. China's economy, Asia's second-largest, may be 17 percent larger and growing even faster than previous estimates, according to a government report Tuesday. The economy expanded by more than 9 percent in the past nine quarters. The measures outlined Wednesday are regulations intended to guide development of the economy. The classification of industries as to whether they should be "encouraged," "restricted" or "eliminated" will be revised every year. Industries that have caused environmental damage or have been wasteful with energy, such as power generators smaller than 50,000 kilowatts and oil refining units smaller than one million tonnes, will be shut down in the coming year.

By 2010, the mainland wants to have two major steelmakers each with a capacity of more than 30 million tonnes a year and a few producers of 10 million tonnes per year each. The measures specified that no investment would be allowed in new copper smelters with a capacity of less than 100,000 tonnes a year.

China currently has 18 copper smelting projects, planned or being built, which will raise capacity to 3.7 million tonnes by the end of 2007 from 1.6 million tonnes in 2004, the commission said in October. The nation's investment in copper smelting almost doubled in 2004, it said.

Aluminum output capacity will reach 10.3 million tonnes this year, and exceed demand by 2.6 million tonnes, according to Liu.

The metals and mining industries will account for about 15 percent of the country's estimated coal demand of 2.15 billion tonnes this year, according to the China Economic Information Network, an affiliate of the commission.

Still, the government will encourage exploration and development of mines for resources such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel, it said. Loans and tax breaks will be available.

For the steel industry, rising output has spurred record prices for iron ore and coal this year, and falling prices for steel. . From next year, China will start closing steel blast furnaces of less than 300 cubic meters and steelmaking converters and electric arc furnaces less than 20 tonnes, he said.

The mainland's steel production capacity has risen 12 percent this year to 470 million tonnes and 150 million tonnes more are either planned or being built. That compares with steel consumption this year of about 300 million tonnes. BLOOMBERG


[Endret 23.12.05 08:26 av OldNick]
OldNick
23.12.2005 08:26
#3165

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China PBOC Official Upgrades 2005 GDP Growth Estimate To 9.4%

22:27 EST Thursday, Dec 22, 2005

BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China's central bank's research bureau Friday raised its gross domestic product growth estimate for this year to 9.4% from 9.2%.

The bureau cut its consumer price index forecast for 2005 to 1.8% from 2%, according to a report by Tang Xu, the director of the research bureau, published in the central bank-backed Financial News.

The previous forecast issued by the bureau was in late September.

Expectations for the yuan to rise have eased, as shown by the fact that the one-year forward exchange rate against the dollar has stabilized since Nov. 11th, said the report.

China's GDP is expected to grow 8.8% and CPI is expected to rise 2.0% in 2006, it said.

China's GDP is expected to grow 9% in the fourth quarter of this year, and CPI is expected to rise 1.3% in the same period, according to the report.

The report also summarized the factors that will have an influence on prices next year.

High international oil prices and a rebound in investment would put pressure on prices to rise. Utilities and resources prices have the potential to rise next year, which would be an important factor in pushing the CPI up, it said.

Changes to the pricing system for resources, such as oil, electricity, water, natural gas and coal, will push prices higher next year, said the report. China reformed the pricing system this year, which involves a gradual loosening of government control over resources prices to allow more market influence.

But a decline in prices in sectors with overcapacity problems, including cement, iron and steel, and uncertainty over grain prices, could push prices lower, it said.

The figures given in the research bureau's quarterly report, which is based on economic models, are based on assumptions that the world economy will expand at 4.3% next year, that China's fiscal expenditure will grow by 13% and that interest rates will remain at current levels.

But for the first time, the report didn't include as one of these assumptions that the foreign exchange rate will remain at the current level, suggesting that the forecasts were made taking into account possible fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate.

It is the first time this year that the bureau has given a forecast for next year's GDP and CPI.

Thursday, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, said China's GDP is expected to rise around 9.4% for full-year 2005, and 8%-9% next year.

Yao said the forecasts don't take into account the results of the recent nationwide census.

Tuesday, China raised its 2004 GDP output by 16.8% to CNY15.988 trillion from CNY13.688 trillion, based on data collected in the census.

Li Qiang, chief statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics and spokesman for the State Council's Economic Census Office, said the revised GDP growth for 2004 won't exceed 10%. GDP growth for 2004 had previously been stated as 9.5%.

The research report issued Friday didn't say whether it takes into account the results of the census. The report doesn't represent the central bank's opinion, the bureau said.

-Zheng Xiaolu contributed to this story, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 6588-5848; tracy.zheng@dowjones.com
-Edited by David Riordan
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-22-05 1948ET
OldNick
01.03.2006 10:07
#3330

Endre
China reports big energy discoveries

Feb 28, 2006, interfax.com

Beijing. February 28. INTERFAX-CHINA - China's energy reserves have grown with the new discoveries of 943 mln tons of oil, 526.3 bln cu m of natural gas and 69.8 bln tons of coal, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in the 2005 Economic Development Statistical Report released on Tuesday.

Total energy consumption rose 9.5% to 2.22 bln tons of coal equivalent in 2005. The biggest rises were seen in natural gas, up 20.6% to 50 bln cu m, hydroelectricity, up 13.4% to 401.0 bln kWh, and coal consumption, up 10.6% to 2.14 bln tons, the report said.

Crude oil consumption rose 2.1% to reach 300 mln tons in 2005. Mine safety improved, with the death rate down 8.7% to 2.81 deaths for every mln tons of coal mined.

The energy consumption-GDP ratio was unchanged from last year, at 1.43 tons of coal equivalent per RMB 10,000 (USD 1,240) of GDP.

Energy consumption in 2005

……………………..Consumption……Growth yoy….Consumption in coal eq…..Distrib

Coal………………...2.14 bln tons…….….10.6%.........2164 mill metric tonnes…..77.1%
Oil……………….…..300 mln tons…….…..2.1%...........437 mill metric tonnes…..15.6%
Natural Gas……….....50 bln cu m..……..20.6%............61 mill metric tonnes…...2.2%
Hydro electric…….401.0 bln kWh……….13.4%...........128 mill metric tonnes…...4.6%
Nuclear………….….52.3 bln kWh………...3.7%.............17 mill metric tonnes…...0.6%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

……

Noen kommentarer og analyse:

Dimensjonen “tons” skal leses “long tons”, hvis nyhetsbyrået brukes internasjonal standard. 1 long ton = 1016 kg. Denne omregningsfaktoren er brukt over i min beregnede ”consumption in coal eq.”, hvor forbruket er omregnet etter energi-innhold i de ulike energikildene. Disse omregningsfaktorene er tatt fra World Energy Council.

For omregning fra produsert kWh i vann- og kjernekraft anlegg til eq. tonn kull i varmekraftverk, har jeg brukt 38.5 % utbytte (av forbrenningsvarmen i kull).

Sum ”tons” forbruk i coal eq. 2005 = 2807 mill metric tonnes = 2762 mill long tons. Det er langt mer enn referert i artikkelen, ca. 2220 mill tons.

Dette kan sees på 2 måter: Enten er forbrukstallet for kull for høyt, eller totalforbruk i kull-ekv. for høyt. Hvis det siste er tilfelle, ville det innebære at kullforbruket ble 1600 mill tons (istedet for 2140 mill tons). Tallene nedenfor indikerer at totals forbruk (i ”coal eq.”) angitt over i artikkelen er feil

Ser at dødsstatistikken er 2.81 pr. 1 mill tons, dvs. total antall blir da ca. 2.81 x 2140 = ca. 6000 i 2005. Relativt høy menneskelig kostnad ved å bryte kull i Kina altså.

BP World Energy 2005 har produsert statistikk frem til og med 2004 (pr. idag, neste oppdatering ventes i juni). Den er vist nedenfor, sammen med estimat fra tabellen over, brukt vekst-% for tilbake kalkulering.

Energy consumption (estimated) in 2004

……………………..Consumption (NBS)..…………Consumption (BP)

Coal………………...1966 mill metric tonnes.………1891 mill metric tonnes
Oil…………………....299 mill metric tonnes…….….309 mill metric tonnes
Natural Gas..……....41.5 bln cu m…………………....39 bln cu m
Hydro electric……….354 bln kWh…………………...328 bln kWh
Nuclear……………..50.4 bln kWh………...............50.1 bln kWh


Som vist, stemmer tallene relativt dårlig overens (bortsett fra nuclear).

Oljeforbruket i 2005 ble tidligere i januar oppgitt av ”National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)”, til ca. 313 mill. metric tonnes (ref. OldNick [3197]). De oppgav også at oljeforbruket utgjorde ca. 22 % av energiforbruket i Kina, hvilket ikke stemmer med fordelingen beregnet over.

Strømproduksjon fra kjernekraft viser at noe nytt anlegg ikke er satt i drift i løpet av 2005. De har tidligere vist til planer om å bygge 2-3 anlegg av størrelse ca. 1 GW pr. år. Ang. vannkraft, så driver de vel og kjører i gang ”3 gorges”, som er oppgitt å skulle gi 19.3 GW ved full utnyttelse, fra endelig ferdigstillelse planlagt i 2009. Det skulle bidra med ca. 25-30% økning fra dagens vannkraft-nivå. Muligens er den store økningen fra 2004 en del av dette prosjektet, som allerede har startet å produsere kraft.

Reserve-økningene oppgitt over virker helt meningsløse, da de har en erstatningsrate på flere-100 % for alle kategorier kilder. De følger nok ikke vestlige standarder for rapportering.

Man ser at Kina’s energi-forbruk domineres totalt av kull. De har ikke oppgitt noen reservetall her, kun nye tilleggsreserver på 70 mrd. tonn (>30 års forbruk med dagens rate). BP angir 114.5 mrd. tonn (ca. 62 anthracite, ca. 52 lignite), så +70 til er ganske meningsløst. (Det tilsvarer også ca. 8% økning i worldwide reserver)

Også økningen i oljereserver er formidabel. 943 mill. tonn = 5.9 mrd. fat. BP angir Kina’s reserver pr. 2004 til ca. 17, dette utgjør da en økning på ca. 35%.

MEN, økningen i energiforbruk holder tritt med økningen i GDP, som også er oppgitt til ca. 9.4% tidligere i januar. Økningen faller hovedsakelig på kull, da de har klart å bremse økningen i oljeforbruket, som jo var >15% i fra 2003 til 2004.



[Endret 01.03.06 10:32 av OldNick]
mororo
01.03.2006 10:30
#2

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Hvilke fond vil dere kina-eksperter anbefale? Blir knall langsiktig
dow
01.03.2006 10:35
#9106

Endre
Tysklands innenriks økonomi er og har vært helt ræva men DAX indexen har vært en av de beste de siste 3 årene. Samtidig falt og falt aksjeindexene i Kina til i fjor sommer da det ser ut som at det bunnet ut. Selskapene i dag er så internasjonale at det ikke spiller stor rolle hvor de er notert men hvilke markeder de er representert i.
OldNick
20.03.2006 08:04
#3409

Endre
2.6 mrd. tonn/år ! Det var 1/2-parten av verdensforbruket for 4-5 år siden.


Official: China to Boost Coal Output

© 2006 The Associated Press
Mar 18, 2006

BEIJING — China plans to boost coal output by up to 18 percent before 2010 to meet soaring energy needs despite environmental concerns, a government newspaper quoted an industry official as saying.

Annual coal production is projected to reach as much as a record 2.6 billion tons in 2010, up from 2.19 billion tons last year, Guo Yuntao, director of the China Development Research Center for the Coal Industry, told the China Daily newspaper.

That growth rate is much slower than in recent years, when output rose by nearly 70 percent in 2000-2005, Guo said in comments published by the newspaper on Saturday.

The latest forecast is based on projections that government efforts to improve energy efficiency will succeed, the report said.

The government has been trying to encourage use of nontraditional energy sources such as windmills and nuclear power in an effort to clean up the environment and reduce reliance on imported oil.

But coal accounted for 76 percent China's energy needs in 2005, and that proportion could rise to 80 percent after 2010, Guo said.

China's energy consumption per unit of economic output was the same in 2005 as in the previous year, despite pledges to improve efficiency, the China Daily report said.



[Endret 20.03.06 08:04 av OldNick]
dow
21.03.2006 17:07
#9329

Endre
SHANGHAI (AFP) - Signs of a sharp downturn are emerging in Shanghai's once-sizzling property market with prices slumping more than 30 percent for some apartments and increasing reports of mortgage defaults.
OldNick
22.03.2006 14:49
#3423

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Diesel rationing sparks panic in China

From Jane Macartney in Beijing, TimesOnline.co.uk
Mar 21, 2006

TWO of China’s biggest oil suppliers have begun to ration diesel, triggering lorry queues at petrol stations across two of the country’s most prosperous provinces. Such was the demand that the state-run oil giants Sinopec and PetroChina set a limit on customers of 25 to 50 litres a visit.
The rationing appears to be restricted to the southeastern provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, two of the most dynamic regional economies in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. One driver at a petrol station in Zhejiang was astonished at the queues: There are no shortages in neighbouring Fujian province, he said.



Speculation has been building for weeks that the Chinese Government was ready to allow an increase in petrol and diesel prices and the public reaction was swift as news, and rumours, of the rationing spread across Zhejiang.

Some pumps in the province are reported to have run dry. The owner of a private transport firm in the eastern Zhejiang port city of Ningbo said: “Our drivers are stranded here because both the Sinopec and PetroChina petrol stations next door told us they ran out of diesel.”

However, this latest bout of rationing has been less serious than a supply crunch last summer that hit most eastern and southern regions in the country for about two weeks. An official with Sinopec in the Jiangsu provincial capital of Nanjing said: “What’s different this time is that stockpiling, not supply shortage, is the cause of queueing and rationing.”

The squeeze last August was led by a surge in fuel exports. State refiners boosted overseas sales to rescue slumping domestic margins caused by the Government’s cap on pump prices.

The Sinopec official said that the company was better prepared this time: “Stocks are below normal, but we still have oil to supply.” He said the company’s inventories could last another five days, against a typical stock of seven to ten days.

Speculation has grown this month that Beijing will announce a retail price rise in petrol within days, now that the annual session of the National People’s Congress, the parliament, has ended. China avoids policy changes during parliament — to reassure its 1.3 billion people that the Government is moving smoothly to ensure a better standard of living.

A price increase would be the first since last July, when prices were raised about 15 per cent — while crude prices had increased more than 30 per cent. China has kept a lid on price increases, fearing inflation and possible social unrest. The diesel price is particularly sensitive because it accounts for one third of all Chinese oil demand. It is the main fuel used by farmers, who have gained least from economic reform, and who are most vulnerable to sudden price swings.

Les mer her
OldNick
28.03.2006 03:36
#3453

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China predicts gradual slowing of economic growth

Reuters, The Associated Press
TUESDAY, MARCH 28, 2006

SHANGHAI China's economy is expected to grow 8.9 percent in 2006, slowing from 9.9 percent last year, the central bank's research department said in a report published Monday.

Annual growth in China's gross domestic product will gradually slow to 9 percent in the second quarter, 8.9 percent in the third and 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter from 9.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, said the report, carried by The China Securities Journal.

The estimates pointed to a slowdown from last quarter, when gross domestic product was up 9.9 percent from a year earlier, although China has repeatedly, and wrongly, projected milder economic growth for several years now.

The central bank did not say why economic growth would slow. Its report focused on inflation.

The consumer price index, China's main gauge of inflation, is expected to be up about 2 percent this year, it said. The index climbed 1.8 percent in 2005.

"In general, our country's GDP growth will gradually trend lower in future but will still maintain a high level," the bank said. "We also see no major fluctuations for consumer prices in future."

Changes to natural resource prices, expected to be rolled out and extended to public utilities this year, would raise the consumer price index by 0.7 percentage point and the producer price index by 1.27 percentage points, it said. Commodity prices would be relatively stable.

China's economy expanded by 10.1 percent in 2004, but growth has been gradually slowing as the government attempted to rein in excess investment in real estate projects and some industries, like steel and cement.

The government's five-year-plan, setting policy through 2010, calls for bringing economic growth down to 7.5 percent a year, with 2006 growth at 8 percent.
OldNick
04.04.2006 19:55
#3494

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Oil giant discovers China's biggest natural gas field

chinaview.cn 2006-04-03 18:56:38

BEIJING, April 3 (Xinhua) -- Oil giant Sinopec Corporation has discovered China's biggest ever natural gas field with proven deposits of 251 billion cubic meters in the southwestern Sichuan Province.

Sinopec said in its annual report released Monday that it has submitted a plan to authorities for the development of the Puguang natural gas field in northeast Sichuan.

The plan proposes commercial production from 2008 with an annual production of 4 billion cubic meters, which could double by 2010.

Sinopec plans to build a pipeline to supply natural gas from Puguang to Jinan, capital of Shandong Province in East China.

Prior to Puguang, China only had four natural gas fields with deposits exceeding 200 billion cubic meters each, the report says.

......

(Kommentar: For å sammenligne, Snøhvit er ca. 190 mrd. Sm3, Shtockman ca. 3300 mrd. Sm3, South Pars ca. 8-14000 mrd. Sm3)
grong2
24.04.2006 20:59
#186

Endre
Hedge funds make big bets on China boom
Greater China hedge funds are growing in both popularity and assets as managers profit from the region's growth.
By Amanda Cantrell, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 24, 2006: 1:31 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - U.S.-China trade relations may be fraught with controversy thanks to a large trade deficit, the outsourcing of jobs and concerns about human rights abuses in the country.

But China's economic growth has inevitably whipped up investor interest as well, with hedge funds leading the charge.


MORE HEDGE FUND NEWS
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Improved returns draw in a solid $24 billion as investors poured more money into the hot sector. (more)
Hanging onto Harvard's $25.9 billion stash
Emerging-markets whiz Mohamed El-Erian takes over the world's biggest endowment fund -- can he match the performance of near-legendary, now-ousted Jack Meyer? (more)
U.S. millionaire count hits record
New report finds households with a net worth of $1M or more rises 11 percent, while those with $5 million or more soars 26 percent. (more)


Some investors, concerned about corruption and a lack of regulatory oversight, are fearful of diving directly into the growing Chinese stock market.

But hedge funds, which are private investment pools for wealthy individuals and institutional investors, began setting up shop in the region years ago, attracted by the area's high return potential. These funds seek to profit from market inefficiencies, which are becoming harder to find in highly liquid and efficient markets such as those in the U.S. and Europe.

These funds may require greater risk tolerance than their U.S. counterparts do, but the returns can be worth it. China-based hedge funds gained 16.8 percent through March of this year, according to publishing and research firm Hedge Fund Intelligence (HFI).

Estimates for the U.S. hedge fund market range from $1.2 to $1.5 trillion, but assets in Asia-Pacific hedge funds now account for $115 billion, according to HFI. Assets in Hong Kong-based hedge funds have jumped from $1.8 billion in 2000 to $15.9 billion in 2005.

Hedge fund interest climbs as markets rise
Sandra Manzke, a hedge fund industry veteran who last year founded Maxam Capital, which runs investment products that are based on indexes of hedge funds, said that as the Chinese government continues to broaden its financial markets to foreign investors, hedge fund interest in the region has climbed.

"We really are becoming a more global economy," she said. "You'll start seeing a lot more interest in China as they move into allowing more foreign ownership."

China's markets can be daunting to new investors, with its multiple share classes and markets scattered across different parts of China. But it has become a more rewarding investment this year, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index climbing 22 percent for the year to date.

Investors still cannot short the stocks of companies based in mainland China, but hedge fund managers have gotten around this by making long investments in mainland China companies and shorting Hong Kong and Taiwan-based companies, because shorting is legal in those markets.

Many hedge fund managers invest in a "greater China" basket of stocks, in addition to commodities. That means they buy stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes as well as Taiwan and Hong Kong-listed stocks.

Buying commodities such as metals is one way hedge funds play the China boom, because China is one of the fastest growing users of commodities, according to Jim Melcher, founder of New York-based hedge fund firm Balestra Capital.

Manzke has long been attracted to Asia because its markets have continued to offer potential for high returns while at the same time becoming more sophisticated – for example, managers in Japan can now short stocks.

She recently launched an index product that is comprised of Asian funds. Manzke notes that China-based funds are on the rise – not just in Hong Kong, which boasts highly regulated and well-established markets, but on mainland China as well.

Shanghai-based funds on the rise
Manzke said there are currently eight hedge funds based in Shanghai, running a total of $406 million. She expects that market will grow as long as the Chinese stock market continues to outperform.

One of those Shanghai-based hedge funds is managed by Martin Currie, an Edinburgh, Scotland-based money management firm with $21.3 billion in assets.

Martin Currie's China hedge fund invests in greater China and focuses on small and mid-sized companies in which the management has a stake in the company, according to Allan MacLeod, head of sales for the firm.

MacLeod notes that the fund, which has holdings in Hong Kong and Taiwan, is up about 35 percent for the year to date.

Seven of the fund's 10 staff members are based in Shanghai, including Chris Ruffle, the lead portfolio manager for the firm's China funds, who is fluent in Mandarin. MacLeod said that conducting due diligence on an investment in China is different than conducting due diligence on more mature equity markets such as the U.S. and European markets.

"The markets are less well researched than other markets, so we have a very heavy emphasis on company visits," he said. "You need to know what to look for, and you need to know your way around Chinese accounting. Experience is extremely important."

Corruption keeps some managers away
Maxam Capital's Manzke said another important part of the due diligence process is getting to know which brokers, administrators and other entities that service hedge funds are reliable – especially important in light of the recent fraud at the U.S. hedge fund Bayou Group, which formed a fake entity to audit its own books.

"You have to do a lot more due diligence on the service providers," she said of investing in Asian hedge funds. "You want a recognizable, big name accounting firm
grong2
24.04.2006 20:59
#187

Endre
.


[Endret 24.04.06 20:59 av grong2]
Herr Blom
24.04.2006 22:49
#46

Endre
Mororo m.fl.
"There are nine million bicycles in Beijing..." het en sang
en gang.
Tenk når alle der, og i andre folkerike områder av Østen skal bytte ut tohjulsballongdekka med BILER!!!!!
Da blir det fett med oljeaksjer generelt.

Norges Kommende OljeAksjeMoguler
Vi skal drite penger Vi.....
OldNick
10.05.2006 07:47
#3651

Endre
Herr Blom!

Tilgangen på tomskaller er ubegrenset. "Gammelt jungelord"


Fears for environment as China plans 48 new airports

Jonathan Watts in Beijing, Guardian.co.uk
May 10, 2006

China plans to build 48 new airports over the next five years in an aviation spending splurge that will delight architects and plane makers but heighten concerns among environmentalists.

With the economy booming, hundreds of millions more journeys are being made by air every year, prompting a rush to buy planes that has made China the most important customer for Boeing and Airbus. But the boom is also set to benefit international design firms and construction companies, including British names such as Norman Foster and Arup.

According to the domestic media, China will spend 140bn yuan (£9.4bn) on airport development between 2006 and 2010 - more than the total for the previous 15 years. Zhao Hongyuan, of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, told the China Daily that the number of airports would rise in that time from 142 to 190. Work is already under way to expand the three biggest international hubs: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Last year a mega-terminal opened in Guangzhou, part of work to double capacity to 27 million passengers by 2009. A second runway opened last year at Pudong airport, near Shanghai, which can handle 35 million passengers a year. And the terminal building under construction at Beijing Capital international airport, designed by Norman Foster, is expected to be the world's biggest airport building.

Even after the new facilities are built the country's 1.3 billion people will be served by fewer than 200 airports, compared with more than 10,000 in the US, which has a quarter of the population. To expand services to less developed areas the government plans to turn airports in Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Wuhan and Shenyang into regional hubs. Yunnan - one of the most beautiful provinces in China - is hoping to cash in on an expected tourism boom by building five new airports, Xinhua news agency reported.

In February China made itself the darling of the global aviation industry by promising to buy 100 planes and recruit 1,000 new pilots every year until 2010.

Les mer her


og - Kina vil ikke bare bygge opp strategiske energireserver, men også for en rekke andre råvarer også, såsom Cu og Uran.

Meget interessant, og vil være sterkt pris-støttende i mange år fremover. Her er tonnagene store, idet de er verdens største forbruker av en rekke metaller som Ni, Cu , Zn og Al (ca. 20-25% av totalt verdensforbruk).

China, Worried About Resources, To Build Up Its Mineral Reserves

By JAMES T. AREDDY. Online.wsj.com
May 10, 2006; Page A7

SHANGHAI, China -- China says it intends to build strategic reserves of minerals like copper and uranium, in addition to the energy stockpiles it already has said it will amass, in the latest sign of Beijing's concern about ensuring an adequate supply of natural resources.

The Ministry of Land and Resources said in its five-year plan that it will build up reserves over the next four years of uranium, copper, aluminum, manganese and other minerals that the country "urgently needs." The statement follows pledges by Beijing to begin filling four strategic reserves of crude oil as soon as this year.

The ministry didn't say how reserve levels might be managed with stockpiles of some of the same raw materials held by China's State Reserve Bureau, an agency within another government ministry that last year lost millions of dollars trading copper on global markets.

It also isn't clear whether the move will affect commodity prices.

......

The Land Resources ministry said it plans to have as many as 10 metal reserves with holdings of 20 million metric tons of copper and 200 million tons of bauxite, which is used to make aluminum. It also said it will have two or three backup stockpiles of oil containing 4.5 billion to five billion metric tons and a similar number of coal reserves with 100 billion tons of stock.

Although analysts said the numbers are high, wording of the ministry's plan suggests some of the reserves will be in proven -- or unmined rather than extracted -- form. The ministry also said it will allocate more money to finding resources while monitoring mining capacity more carefully.

If Beijing attempted to purchase outright the amounts suggested by the Land Resources ministry, "it would drive [prices of] the world's commodities out the roof," said Jim Lennon, an analyst at Macquarie Bank in London. He added, however, that China wants to secure access to these commodities rather than simply stockpile them.

......

[Komm: Tonnagene som her er nevnt er vanskelig å feste lit til.

F.eks. 4.5 mrd. tonn olje er > 1 årsforbruk world wide (ca 4.2 mrd. tonn/år). Tidligere har strat.lager på opptil 500 mill fat=ca. 70 mill. tonn vært nevnt. (USA har som kjent snaut 700 mill. fat strat.lager)

For Cu er årsforbruket ww ca. 18 mill. tonn, tilsvarende misforhold her. Kina bruker i år ca. 4.2 mill. tonn.

100 mrd. tonn kull er større enn deres offisielle reserver innenlands, og ww forbruk ca. 6 mrd. tpy, av disse bruker Kina selv ca. 2.2 mrd. tonn.

Noe problemer med tolken kanskje ??]



[Endret 10.05.06 07:47 av OldNick]
grong2
15.05.2006 22:27
#463

Endre
Investing in China no easy task

MarketWatch's upcoming survey of Investing in Asia provides a good opportunity to look closer at a few of the unique aspects of China's often-chaotic market and how investors can mitigate some of the inherent risks.

Link
OldNick
07.06.2006 04:42
#3698

Endre
Kontruksjonen av verdens største damprosjekt "Three Gorges" er ferdigstillt

Dam and blast as Three Gorges flood control starts

6 Jun 2006

BEIJING, June 6 (Reuters) - China blew up the last temporary wall protecting the Three Gorges Dam on Tuesday, using enough explosives to bring down 400 10-storey buildings, state media reported.

The 580-metre (1,900-ft) long, 140-metre high cofferdam connected to the southern bank of the Yangtze river was brought down in 12 seconds in a series of explosions using 191.3 tons of explosives planted beneath the water, Xinhua news agency said.

The blast sprayed nearly 190,000 cubic metres of concrete fragments into China's longest river, Xinhua said. Engineers declared the operation a complete success that would not trigger earthquakes.

"Blasting away the concrete cofferdam ... will spark off no severe geological disasters," Li Yong'an, general manager of China Yangtze River Three Gorges Development Corporation, was quoted as saying.

Removal of the cofferdam, a watertight chamber which allows building work under water, means the world's largest dam had effectively commenced flood control, Xinhua said, two years ahead of schedule.

Construction of the Three Gorges Dam -- the world's largest hydroelectricity project -- was completed last month after first breaking ground in 1997.

More than 100 people died during the $25 billion construction project, state media reported, and 1.3 million people have been or are still to be relocated.


men - samtidig har Kina et nytt, megaprosjekt på trappene, også dette i Yangtze, men 1500 km lenger oppe i elva. Omtrent samme størrelse: ca. 20 GW kapasitet.

China: Another dammed gorge

By Pallavi Aiyar
June 3, 2006

YUNNAN Province, China - Even as the main dam of the mammoth Three Gorges reservoir, the world's largest hydroelectric project, was completed in late May several months ahead of schedule, China is gearing up to launch another massive Yangtze River dam-building project.

Sandwiched between the towering majesty of the Jade Dragon and Haba Snow Mountains in the northwestern part of Yunnan province, "Tiger Leaping Gorge" is one of the world's deepest river gorges. Here about 1,500 kilometers upstream from the Three Gorges Dam, the Jinsha River (as the Yangtze is known in its upper reaches) thunders its way through the 18km-long gorge with, as yet, untamed power.

The gorge's evocative name is related to a legend according to which a tiger once leaped across the narrowest point of the ravine where it is a mere 30 meters wide. Elsewhere, the gorge is up to 80 meters in width, while the mountain peaks on either side reach more than 3,000 meters above the river.

......

A series of eight big dams on this part of the Yangtze are currently being considered, which when completed would flood some 13,300 hectares of prime farmland, including large parts of the gorge, and force the relocation of 100,000 people from the fertile river valley.

Yu Xiaogang, founder of Green Watershed and winner of the Goldman environmental award for 2006, said the formal announcement for the plan to construct a dam on the gorge was made in 2003. The project, which according to local officials will have the capacity to generate 20 million kilowatts of electricity once finished, is a joint venture between the provincial government of Yunnan and a subsidiary of the China Huaneng Group - one of the largest state-owned enterprises in the power sector.

Pre-project planning has been ongoing for the past few years, including geological surveys and the measuring of the homes and land of those that will need to be relocated. An environmental impact assessment (EIA) and social impact assessment (SIA), required by Chinese law for any large hydroelectric project, are being carried out.

The essential problem Yu points out is that all of this is being done in total secrecy. The SIA is supposed to involve the participation of people who will be affected by the dam. In reality none of the farmers who will be forced to move have been given any information regarding compensation or the scheduling for the dam.

......

The Tiger Leaping Gorge dam has, in fact, been listed as one of the country's major infrastructure projects for the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-10). Although final approval by the central government is still pending, Yu says this means there is a very strong likelihood that the project will go ahead.

In power-hungry China, this is not an uncommon story. According to the United Nations Environmental Program, China already has more than 85,000 dams, some 46% of the world's total. More than 20,000 of these are classified as "big". According to Chinese media reports, 16 million people across the country have already been displaced as a result of constructing large dams.

China's potential hydropower capacity is the biggest in the world. A recent government survey put the figure at about 700,000 megawatts, of which 400,000MW was deemed commercially viable. According to a one study, 16% of all electricity generation in China today comes from hydropower.

Les mer her
Magic
07.06.2006 09:27
#2249

Endre
fra imarkedet

Børsras i Kina
Shanghai-indeksen i Kina raste nesten 5 prosent på bekymringer om kannibalisme i forbindelse med nye børsnoteringer.



Nok en gang var det signalene fra den amerikanske sentralbanksjefen som tynget investorene i Asia.

- Ytterligere rentehevinger betyr at den amerikanske økonomien kan være i ferd med kjøles ned, noe som er negativt for de aksjene ved eksportrelaterte asiatiske børsene, sier forvalter Kim Hyun Tae i Landmark Investment Management i Seoul til Bloomberg News.

Bernanke sa i en tale tidligere i uken at økningen i inflasjonsindikatorer ikke er velkommen og at han vil sørge for at trenden ikke fortsetter. Det indikerer at banken trolig vil fortsette å heve styringsrenten. Markedet hadde håpet at det ville bli en pause i renteøkningen nå i juni.

Dermed frykter investorene i Asia at den amerikanske styringsrenten blir rammet av økende inflasjon. Høye lånekostnader i USA kan medføre lavere forbruk og ramme de eksportsensitive aksjene i Asia.

Den brede indeksen Morgan Stanley International Asia Pacific falt til en nye bunn på tre måneders basis. Indeksen var i morgentimene onsdag ned 1,8 prosent til 123,99 poeng og har ikke været lavere siden 8. mars.

I Japan falt Nikkei 225 1,9 prosent to 15.096,01 poeng, mens den mer brede indeksen Topix ble sendt ned hele 2,2 prosent.

Størst var fallet i Kina der Shanghai Composite-indeksen stupte 4,9 prosent. Dermed opplever indeksen det største fallet siden januar 2002. Bekymringen for at investorene kun skal konsentrere seg om de nye aksjene som kan noteres skal gå på bekostning av de eksisterende aksjene i markedet. Nylig ble det vedtatt at børsnoteringer igjen kan bli lovlig i Kina. Etter flere år med fullstans i nye børsnoteringer.



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