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KINA EN ØKONOMISK KJEMPE
dammerud
21.05.2005 10:07
#8866

Endre
Velkommen til en ny topic som skal ta for seg utviklingen i Kina, en blivende økonomisk stormakt og hvor Norge har store muligheter ,

1300 millioner mennesker i et land som er i ferd med å bli verdens største marked og økonomiske dynamo som bl.a. re tekstilbransjen har skremt "vannet" av mange.

En økonomisk vekst som sprenger alle grenser.

Håper at flere er med å bidra til med info om hvor bedrifter i ditt distrikt er inne, i forhandlinger eller har muligheter .

Her har jeg en flott link som dere kan vende tilbake til for å få info både på norsk og engelsk om Kina.

KINAFORUM MED MASSE LINKER

Les "Sammen er vi krutt"

Dessuten denne:
Norges offisielle nettside mot Kina




Olje og fisk er bl.a relevante temaer ,men også mange andre interessante muligheter.

Jan






[Endret 21.05.05 10:09 av dammerud]
[Endret 21.05.05 10:11 av dammerud]
[Endret 21.05.05 10:19 av dammerud]
dammerud
21.05.2005 10:26
#8867

Endre
Her er litt mer generelt om norsk satsing.
Man har et apparat både hjemme og ute.

Innovation Norway and the Norwegian Seafood Export Council (NSEC) both have offices in Beijing.

Innovation Norway
As of 1 January 2004 the new state owned company Innovation Norway has replaced the following four organisations: The Norwegian Tourist Board, the Norwegian Trade Council, the Regional Development Fund, SND and the Government Consultative Office for Inventors, SVO.

Innovation Norway promotes nationwide industrial development profitable to both the business economy and Norways national economy, and helps release the potential of different districts and regions by contributing towards innovation, internationalisation and promotion.The new state owned company employs more than 700 people. Innovation Norway has offices in all the Norwegian counties and in more than 30 countries world wide. The head office is situated in Oslo.

Innovation Norway's office in Beijing is situated inside the embassy compound in Sanlitun. The office is headed by Trade Counsellor Harald Naevdahl.

In order to obtain information in English about Norway or Norwegian business and industry, please visit one of the English web sites with links on the right.


The Norwegian Seafood Export Council

NSEC is the Norwegian seafood industry's combined marketing and information council.

The goal of its operations is to increase the interest for and awareness of Norwegian seafood in Norway and the rest of the world. The industry finances NSEC's activities through a separate statutory fee on the export of Norwegian fish and seafood. Marketing Counsellor Jan Fossberg is in charge of the NSEC Beijing office. The office is situated inside the embassy compund in Sanlitun.






[Endret 21.05.05 10:26 av dammerud]
dammerud
21.05.2005 12:18
#8868

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Hu: China working hard to open up
Monday, May 16, 2005 Posted: 10:52 PM EDT (0252 GMT)
CNN har en uke full av kinaprogram:
Temaer:

EYE ON CHINA
• Economy sets a sizzling pace
• Giant aspires to superpower status
• Shanghai: China's business engine
• Space: China's great leap skyward
• Environment pays price of progress
• Asian tussle for dominance
• Rural citizens fighting back
• IT warms cooperation with India
• Games heads leave little to chance
• Xinjiang: On the new frontier
• Young, angry ... and wired
• Tiger in house of the flying hero
• Middle Kingdom 'best under heaven'
• Special report: Eye on China

Her er fra talen til møtedeltagerne i Fortune Global Forum in Beijing på mandag 16. mai:

BEIJING, China (Reuters) -- Chinese President Hu Jintao says his country will work hard to open up to the rest of the world and help overseas businesses invest in what has become the world's fastest-growing major economy.

"China will unswervingly pursue a basic policy of opening up to the rest of the world and will further pursue our economic and technical cooperation with the rest of the world," Hu told delegates to the Fortune Global Forum in Beijing on Monday.

"We are certainly willing to create an even better climate for foreign businesses to make investment and trade with China," he told the business forum.

Hu said economic globalization meant China and Asia were quickly becoming a new growth engine for the world, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported. (Full text)

Hu said that particularly since the reform program pioneered by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, China has undergone a profound transformation.

In the 26 years from 1978 to 2004, China's GDP increased from $147.3 billion to $1.6494 trillion, with an average annual growth rate of 9.4 percent.

Foreign trade rose from $20.6 billion to $1.1548 trillion, averaging an annual growth rate of over 16 percent.

Hu said the number of rural poor had fallen from some 250 million to 26 million.

Hu made no mention of a trade row over textiles with Europe and the United States, which last week said it would restrict imports of three kinds of clothing from China that have surged dramatically unless the two countries work out a compromise.

The European Union is also considering curbs on Chinese clothing imports.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao was quoted by Xinhua on Monday as saying U.S. curbs on China's textile exports were not conducive to good trade relations.

China enjoyed a huge trade surplus with the United States of $4.59 billion in April and $21.2 billion for the first four months of 2005, a stark contrast to the same period last year, when it ran up a deficit of about $10.7 billion.

The sharp turnaround is fuelling complaints by U.S. exporters in particular that China is reaping an unfair advantage by keeping the yuan pegged at 8.28 per dollar, as it has since 1997, instead of letting the currency strengthen to reflect rising productivity.

Several economists expect imports to pick up in coming months and to reduce the trade deficit. Others, though, say China is becoming less reliant on foreign goods as the huge investments of recent years, in everything from steel mills to chip plants, lead to increased production for sale both at home and abroad.

Evidence from big companies doing business with China suggests that the world's seventh-largest economy has been largely immune to a slowdown emerging in other parts of the world.

Jan.





[Endret 21.05.05 12:22 av dammerud]
dow
21.05.2005 14:06
#8003

Endre
The Echoes of Beijing

Stephen Roach (from Beijing)




Over the years, I have made probably ten visits to the Temple of Heaven in Beijing. But this time it literally took my breath away. Built in the 15th century, it is one of Ming China’s greatest monuments — an extraordinary complex of sacrificial buildings that is three times the size of the Forbidden City. The centerpiece — the magnificent three-level white marble Altar of Prayer for Good Harvest — was the scene for the major social extravaganza of the just-completed Fortune Global Forum. Staged by the Beijing municipal government, the Temple of Heaven was magically transformed by lights, music, opera, and traditional costumes and dancing into what had to be a preview of the opening ceremony of the 2008 Olympics. It was a truly spectacular event. On the surface, the China boom never looked more glorious.

Beneath the surface, however, there is a growing sense of unease in China. Don’t get me wrong — the backward looking data flow still looks terrific. GDP growth continues to soar — gains in 2003 were just revised upward to 9.5% (from 9.3%) and the Chinese economy was estimated to be holding at that pace in the first period of 2005. The latest update of the more reliable industrial output figures paints an equally impressive figure — a reacceleration to 16% y-o-y growth in April versus somewhat more subdued year-end 2004 comparisons of 14.4%. Growth is not the issue in China. There has been plenty of it in recent years and there is an ample reservoir of considerably more growth to come in the pipeline. The issue is the consequences of that growth.

Two considerations are especially critical in that regard — China’s own efforts to maintain the internal stability of its economy and the world’s response to the China growth juggernaut. Recently, Chinese officials have taken dead aim on the nation’s over-heated property sector with a new series of tough administrative measures. This is the third such action this year, but this one seems to have real teeth in going after excesses on both the demand and supply sides of the property. There is a new tax on any “property flipping” that will be imposed on transactions taking place within two years of a purchase and there are new penalties for excess developer’s profits and the restriction of land supply. These actions were jointly issued by seven agencies within the central government — underscoring a deep sense of determination on the part of China’s senior leadership to come to grips with the major internal excess of the Chinese economy. This is clearly a much tougher message than I picked up in late March, when I met with senior officials at the annual China Development Forum (see my 22 March dispatch, “China Goes for Growth”). That could finally mean “game over” for the Shanghai property bubble.

Meanwhile, back home, the US government has unleashed a multi-pronged assault on Chinese trade. The Commerce Department has imposed “surge protection” quotas on the imports of several categories of textile products made in China. The Treasury Department has issued the functional equivalent of an official ultimatum on the currency issue — making it crystal-clear that China is on the brink of being found guilty of manipulating the renminbi. And the US Congress is moving full speed ahead in the consideration of a more broadly based scheme of stiff tariffs on all Chinese-made products shipped to the United States. Reflecting the confluence of lingering angst in a tough US labor market and a China-centric trade deficit, the scapegoating of China has now become the favorite political sport in Washington (see my 9 May dispatch, “Politicization of the Trade Cycle”). Never mind, the flawed macro logic behind this potentially tragic outbreak of protectionism. US politicians seem increasingly united in their efforts to blame China for America’s massive foreign trade and current-account deficits.

The real test for China comes from the potential interplay between these two sets of forces — internal measures aimed at containing the property bubble and external measures aimed at constricting Chinese trade. This could be an exceedingly difficult set of circumstances for an unbalanced Chinese economy, whose growth dynamic is powered by two major drivers — exports and export-led investment. Collectively, exports and fixed investment now make up about 80% of total Chinese GDP. By going after the property bubble, Beijing is attempting to squeeze the biggest piece of that — domestic investment — whereas Washington is taking aim on the export component. This potential double whammy is especially disturbing in that China lacks the backstop of internal private consumption; in 2004, household consumption fell to a record low of 42% of Chinese GDP — the smallest consumption share of any major economy in the world. (Note: While investment, exports, and private consumption collectively account for more than 100% of Chinese GDP, a negative offset of some 34% of GDP comes from imports, while another 12% shows up in the form of government consumption).

This could well be modern-day China’s toughest macro challenge. Time and again — but especially over the past eight years — the Chinese economy has had to cope with very tough external and internal circumstances. The Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, the synchronous global recession of 2001, and the SARS outbreak of early 2003 were all formidable threats that most in the West thought would derail the Chinese economy. Yet China barely skipped a beat on all of those occasions. This time the challenge is very different and potentially much more significant — ironically, coming just when the world has become convinced that the Chinese growth miracle is here to stay. If Beijing gives on the currency front after having just taken actions to pop the property bubble, the risk of a major shortfall of Chinese economic must be taken seriously.

But the real
chateau
21.05.2005 16:22
#1338

Endre
En spennende topic, Dammerud.
Kina er et land i full blomst.
Er akkurat kommet hjem etter en fantastisk ferietur, hvor jeg hovedsakelig oppholdt meg i og rundt Beijing.
En rekker over ganske mye på 12 timers dagsturer hvis en starter dagen like tidlig som kineserne.
Det er en enorm byggeaktivitet i Beijing, og hovedfokuset er nå¨rettet inn mot olympiaden 2008.
Det som slo meg er at Beijing på mange måter en topp moderne by.
Folk er vennlige og tildels meget nyskjerrige på hvor vi kommer fra, og hva vi har som proffesjon.
Spesiellt blir en tilsnakket av unge studenter som vil praktisere engelsken de har lært.
Noen av dem vet også ganske mye om Norge.
Det er faktisk slik at en noen ganger må en være avvisende ovenfor studentene, og si at det ikke passer å samtale akkurat der og da.
Hvis ikke blir en stående på samme sted hele dagen.
Det ser også ut som at ungdommen lider av det samme kjøpepresset og motehysteriet som en finner i vestlige land.
Mobiltelefonen er også kommet inn for fullt, og da spesiellt blant ungdommen.
Ønsker deg en god tur, Dammerud.
Min tur var verd hver eneste krone, og jeg reiser gjerne tilbake ved en senere anledning.
dammerud
21.05.2005 19:32
#8869

Endre
Takk Chateau og Dow.
Jeg gleder meg.

Fortsatt god helg.


[Endret 21.05.05 23:06 av dammerud]
lanse
22.05.2005 00:52
#6206

Endre
Velkommen etter dammerud jeg satte fingeren på dette i 2003.

Link

Nå er det på tide å se på reverseringen.


lanse
lanse
22.05.2005 01:00
#6207

Endre
Vil bare påpeke att mye har skjedd siden den gangen og att jeg har lært mye om renbini og forståelsen rundt pegen, har også mye igjen å lære.

lanse
lanse
22.05.2005 01:18
#6209

Endre
Dammerud du liker sikkert ikke dette att jeg var i forkant, som du forstår så er jeg stort sett i skuddlinjen med kontroversielle meninger, som jeg var i 2003.

Er det ikke behagelig dammerud å finne en gammel sannhet.

Jeg blir så lei av dere.?

Topicen din er gammeldags sannhet, '

Du minner meg om taxisjåførene.


lanse
lanse
22.05.2005 01:50
#6210

Endre
Det minste nytenkning her burde Være å vise litt forståelse over Chinesisk tankegang.
dow som viser seg å ha diktatorisk matematisk tekning og store analytiske evner vet vel alt om PEGGEN til US.

Så jeg venter spent på fremtiden ifra dow sine store analytiske evner..


lanse
lanse
22.05.2005 01:55
#6211

Endre
Ikke bare Blir jeg lei av dere, jeg blir også sliten av dere.

mvh

lanse
lanse
22.05.2005 02:07
#6212

Endre
Nå går jeg på stranden og slapper av for en stund, men dere bør tenke dere om før dere ser på meg som en idiot, og heller se på linken min.


lanse
dow
22.05.2005 02:14
#8016

Endre
Ble litt rot dette, halve innlegget forsvant.


[Endret 22.05.05 02:15 av dow]
dammerud
22.05.2005 06:04
#8870

Endre
Til lanse.
takk for innleggene dine og tilbake til valutakinatopicen.

Alltid godt å være i forkant.

Men selv om en må hoppe etter Wirkola så kan en ny stil ,innfallsvinkel, virke forhåpentlig noenlunde bra.

Dows pro og contra re utviklingen er interessant.
Vi får se.

Fortsatt god helg.

jan


[Endret 22.05.05 06:06 av dammerud]
trader.nr1
22.05.2005 09:30
#5159

Endre
Nå får du en tøff jobb dammerud, å "mene noe etter lanse" blir en hard nøtt. Nesten verre enn å hoppe etter wirkola...:-) :-)
skipper*
22.05.2005 09:31
#1363

Endre
Hei dammerud

Håper du får en interessan tur til China.

Jeg har,som du sikkert ha forstått hatt med Chinesere å gjøre siden 1966, det var den gang vi hadde chinesisk crew på norske skip... den gang var det Mao som regjerte og når vi kom til Chinesisk havn var det alltid vanskelig å bestemme hvem var hvem ,for de gikk alle i den samme dressen , Mao uniformen., vi viste når losen kom ombord,for han hadde kikkerten hengende rundt halsen.
I 1975 fikk vi de første signaler om at China hadde en undergruns opposisjon, vi fikk noen Aftenposten Ukemagasin og i 3 av disse magasinene hadde noen skrevet på sigarettpapir med skrivemaskin og limt inn i avisen , slagord mot Mao noe som dengang sikkert var dødsstreff...
Jeg har forresten lest at det var metoden Chinesisk undergrunn gav signaler til den øvrige verden at noe var i gjære...China hadde en opposisjon...

Når vi nå ser hva China har oppnådd etter revolusjonen så er det bare fantastisk, de er på vei til å blir verdens mektigste handelspartnere...
Jeg leser at 75 % av all containerexport fra China er det Amerikanske selskapet varehuskjedene Wal-Mart og K-Mart så da vet vi hvordan det står til med amerikanske forbruksvareproduksjon...
Det chinesiske arbeidsmoral, flid og mange kloke hoder gjør at vi bare har sett begynnelsen av noe enormt...
Jeg ser CCTV hver morgen og en morgen var det interjuv med Utenriksminister Petersen i prigrammed Dialoge , det var interessant å se, selv om han var litt tam, men chinserne lurte på hvorfor Norge ikke solgte mere olje til China og det forklarte urenriksmnisteren kom av den lange transportveien...
men de hadde oppdaget at Norge gav ut store summer til utviklingsland og det var noe China ikke kunne klare, men utenriksministeren mente at han ikke kunne skrive ut en sjekk der og da.....
det var ikke så enkelt mente utenriksministeren
(Hadde det vært Bondevik er jeg ikke sikker om han ikke hadde tatt opp sjekkheftet)





poldco
22.05.2005 12:56
#17919

Endre


Heisann, som jeg har fortalt dere tidligere så har min eldste sønn vert i Kina i to år, han kom hjem nylig med en nydelig kinesisk svigerdatter til meg og min kone.

Skal oppfordre han til å skrive litt her (det er vel lov det LLx2), tenker han kan bidra med litt der han som har bodd midt i ''maurtuen''.





[Endret 22.05.05 12:56 av poldco]
dammerud
22.05.2005 13:01
#8873

Endre
Takk til deg Skipper.
Det er nesten som vi har vært gamle kjenninger i mange år.

Hvis du går inn på KINAFORUM MED MASSE LINKER
så er det mye interessant å lese fra Kina.
Vi har hatt mange forelesninger om maotiden og foreleseren i vårhalvåret redigerer denne hjemmesiden.

Det var et grusefullt 10 -år som også hadde sine utløpere til Norge og studentmiljøet på Blindern. var inne for tilleggsutdanning da og gikk sammen med ildrødw maoister som viftet med den lille røde.

Kulturrevolusjonen var i grunnen en antikulturrevolusjon..

heldigvis greidde de å snu(Fjellvettregelelen) og nå er det litt av en dynamo.
Re lanse ,så er det mange som har hoppet etter Wirkola og gjort det bra.

Det er viktig med innleggene fra "Stocktalkhopp"gjengen.

ha en fortsatt god helg.

PS. Ser at Poldco melder seg på i "EtterWirkolagjengen"
Velkommen skal dere være.

Jan


[Endret 22.05.05 13:03 av dammerud]
dammerud
22.05.2005 13:17
#8875

Endre
Plukket dette i SNI- topicen: via Future (gammel halm må til for å bygge dette opp til en god topic) Er det noen som har andre klipp. Kan være her et tips til å se på Snitopicen ellers og også andre selskaper som er kinarelaterte.

Jinhuitopicen er en egen topic som er godt ivaretatt.

Interessant å få relatert til norske bedrifter.

SNI - SNTG ESTABLISHES JOINT VENTURE IN CHINA

London - February 23, 2005 - Stolt-Nielsen S.A. (NasdaqNM:
SNSA; Oslo Stock Exchange: SNI) today announced that its
subsidiary, Stolt-Nielsen Transportation Group (`SNTG`),
has established a joint venture in China with Shanghai
Kingman Container Service Company Limited.

The joint venture company is called Shanghai Stolt-Kingman
Tank Containers Transportation Ltd (`SSKTCTL`) and has been
established to provide integrated, multi-modal tank
container services to China`s bulk liquid chemical and food
industries.

SSKTCTL will be managed and staffed by some of the most
experienced and dedicated personnel from the tank
container, transport and shipping industries and will offer
an array of services and support functions to meet the
growing demands of the Chinese tank container market for
bulk liquids, food stuffs and chemicals.

Commenting, Otto Fritzner, CEO of SNTG, said:
`This is a joint venture with considerable growth potential
and we are confident that the company will become
synonymous in China with quality, safety, innovation and
reliability. Through its local expertise, local network of
offices and depots, and diversified fleet of tank
containers, SSKTCTL is able to provide a one-stop solution
to meet the ever-increasing demands of the Chinese market.`

Kommentar: Spennende, rett og slett




[Endret 22.05.05 13:41 av dammerud]
skipper*
22.05.2005 20:06
#1365

Endre
Hei dammerud,
Ja nå har vi jo pratet på denne ST i flere år så det blir som du sier vi blir som gamle kjendte... men jeg må si at disiplinen på ST har forbedret seg meget etter betalingen ble innført...

Nå, var nå dette China Topicen og som sagt så var jeg der under Mao's tid... på den tiden var det ikke så mange nordmenn som gjorde business i China , men shippinge var et av de områder norske redere klarte å få til noe...

Det fortelles om en tidligere styrmann fra Rogaland som siden ble stor reder på China... han kjøpte gamle linjeskip og chartet disse til chineserne på lange T/C ... Blant Chineserne ble han den gang bare kalt "Arne from Norway "...
Under en Chinesisk delegasjon som kom til norge så var "Arne " den eneste personen de ville snakke med ,han hadde chinesernes tillit noe som er meget viktig... og er det fortsatt.

Når China startet opp med skipsbygging så var Gearbulk og avdøde Kristian Jebsen fra Bergen en av de første som bestilte en stor ordre av moderne skip bygget i China,
det var nok på grunn av prisen på nybygene , kvaliteten kom etter hvert, men det gikk fint til slutt...
Siden har det jo rent skip ut fra chinesiske verksteder til alle verdens redere..

En kan si at Chineserne får alt opp i hendene , vestlige eksperter kommer med tegninger, teknologi og kapital .

Så det enste chineserne må stille med er raske små hender som er billige i drift, god arbeidsmoral, ingen streiker , ingen arbeidsbegrensninger , 24 timers skift etc... det er faktisk suksessen til China... I tillegg til at chineserne er meget respektfulle og har nesten null kriminalitet ...

jeg tror China nå holder på å bli læremester for resten av verden....sesielt i Afrika ...og Asia..


dow
23.05.2005 17:31
#8052

Endre
Ikke så morsomt å være aksje investor i Kina.




[Endret 23.05.05 17:31 av dow]
lanse
23.05.2005 20:51
#6217

Endre
Det var vel dette jeg menta dammerud, mulig reversering i China nå se på $COP tidlig å si enda men verd å følge med på.


lanse
lanse
23.05.2005 21:02
#6218

Endre
dow [8052]
Symtomatisk dette att dow endrer innleggene sine, feigheten har sin pris.


lanse
lanse
23.05.2005 21:05
#6219

Endre
Forøvrig en svært interesang topic du startet dammerud, mye burde vært dedikert peggen.
Og dens påvirkning.


lanse
Bruce Wayne
23.05.2005 21:08
#6103

Endre
At aksjemarkedet i Kina ikke hadde gjort det noe særlig bra det siste året hadde jeg hørt/lest, men at det var så dårligt, og hadde vart så lenge, det var en overraskelse. Hvorfor shipping shortes over i lav sko på HK-børsen nå er jo også lettere å forstå nå.
dow
23.05.2005 21:22
#8057

Endre
BW

Det har med at det er delvis statseide selskaper og man regner med at markedet vil ha problem med å absorbere nedsalgene. Hang Seng har jo klart seg mye bedre.
lanse
23.05.2005 21:35
#6222

Endre
Poenget mitt dammerud er att du kan samenlignes med taxisjåførene,,,,,

Kanskje er vi i reverseringen, i Chinas påvirkning av den vestlige påvirkning,

BDI har en urovekkende utvikling for tiden.


lanse
lanse
23.05.2005 21:38
#6223

Endre
Opps, ser att feige dow er her også.


lanse
dammerud
23.05.2005 22:00
#8880

Endre
Til lanse:

Mitt motiv eller hva som fikk meg til å starte denne topic var kort og godt at jeg reiser til Kina til mandag
I forkant av denne turen som er litt spesiell fordi den arrangeres av en av folkehøyskolene i Norge som har egen Kinalinje ,er at deltagerne har i løpet av vinteren hat 9 tretimers forelesninger om kultur, historie, skikker, geografi og den økonomiske utvkling. Samtidig har vi den kinesiske kanalen vi får på parabolen og litteratur.
Spising med pinner og kinesisk gymnastikk har også vært på programmet.

Vi skal til Bejing og muren, Xian, Guelin i sør og noen dager i Shanghai.

Dette at Kina nå etter den såkalte kulturrevolusjonen snudde helt om gikk i en økonomisendringæra var så interessant og spennende at jeg opprettet denne topicen og prøver å følge med.
Det var det og ikke at jeg ville hoppe bedre enn Wirkola som gjorde at jeg opprettet denne topicen.

Anbefaler alle å se på linken fra
KINAFORUM MED MASSE LINKER


MVH.

Jan.

lanse
23.05.2005 22:05
#6229

Endre
dammerud [8882]

All respekt til deg dammerud og god reise, skulle nesten likt å følge deg.

Det jeg mener er att jeg håper du ikke blir blendet av reisen og att "den nye økonomien" kanskje er på hell.


mvh
lanse

PS. god reise
skipper*
23.05.2005 23:41
#1374

Endre
hei igjen dammerud, jeg skulle vært i seng,

men china historie og kultur er alltid interesannt

... derfor må jeg fortelle deg en sann historie fra gamledager da Capteinen alltid hadde boy såkalt "Captains Boy", det var forresten en av de mest respekterte stillingene blant det chinesiske crew...

Well, dette var en gammel Kaptein som drakk litt for mye og da kune han til tider være litt stygg med Boyen sin og gi han en ørefik ....
så en dag så var kapteine edru og hadde fått bonanger for at han hadde vært stygg med den gode boyen sin. Så han bestemteseg for å være snill med han for fremtiden... så han sa til til Kim ..."My dear Kim, from today I will never hit you more , you are a good boy, I am very sorry"
"Thank you my dear Captain, if so is true, I will stopp piss in you coffecup every morning before I serve you coffe , my dear Captain" ...

Så slik var china mannens hevn på overmakten... kapteinen...








[Endret 23.05.05 23:42 av skipper*]
[Endret 23.05.05 23:43 av skipper*]
Bruce Wayne
23.05.2005 23:57
#6107

Endre
Husker jeg kjøpte meg en en NAD-forsterker på midten av åttitallet, ble overrasket over at den var laget i Kina og hadde såpass høy produksjonskvalitet. Tenkte da litt over mulighetene Kina hadde, men det tok jo noen år...
Utmothavet
24.05.2005 00:38
#5271

Endre
Hei Dammerud
Ser du skal til Bejing og muren, Xian, Guelin i sør og noen dager i Shanghai.

Det blir en opplevelserik tur - har ikke vert i Guelin - men besøkte for 2 år siden Xian og Bejing på en uke, - det var i minste laget. Skulle brukt 4-5 dager til - for det ble hektisk.

Shanghai er jeg 3-5 ganger i året, og var der sist i april og neste blir mulig om en mnd.
Kulturell er denne byen en nedtur i forhold til dem andre, men et økonomisenter av dimensjoner. Skyskrapere og enorme boligblokker er kjennemerke. Vist du er der en dag med lite "forurensning" kan du ta turen opp i Orient Perle Tower (første perlen 278m over bakken), for å få god utsikt over havnen og en del av skyskraperne. Du må ta en tur på shopping "Kopi markedet" (kle, klokke, bagger, DVD etc.), for her kan du prute prisene til det hele blir morsomt - også for menn :-)
PS. viser du interesse for produktet - blir prisen høyere en den kunne blitt :-))

Ha en god tur

Kinesiske myndigheter sier de vil revaluere sin valuta, men sier at de ikke har noen tidsplan for når dette kan gjennomføres.
dammerud
24.05.2005 09:30
#8884

Endre
Takk for tipsene ,Utmothavet.
Gleder meg.

Til Skipperen:
En gammel halmhistorie.

Skipperen (kapteinen) og førstestyrmannen var ikke helt gode venner . Etter at en litt fuktig kveld og førstestyrmann på vakt, skrev kapteinen i loggboka " Førstestyrmannen ikke helt edru i dag" Nestkommanderende ble rasende og krevde det fjernet".Men nei", sa K." det er jo riktig"

Neste dag sto det i loggboka: "Kapteinen edru i dag".

K ble sint og forlangte det fjernet.
"Men stemmer jo", svarte førstestyrmannen.

Jan





[Endret 24.05.05 09:42 av dammerud]
skipper*
25.05.2005 09:10
#1379

Endre
Good Morning

Ser på Chinesisk TV CCTV Buiz-China ... og der refereres en chinesisk høytstående finans politiker som sier at
" Revaluering av den Chinesiske valutta vil være et setback for Chinese økonomi "..... så noen revaluering tror jeg amerikanerne kan glemme... det er jo de som kjører presset for revalueringen av den chinesiske valutta ..

Og for norge og Norges Bank blir det liten hjelp å få på prisstigningen for china importen på sko, tekstiler m.v... så norsk rente blir nok ikke satt opp på lenge..........

Chineserne begynner nå å ha tilstrekkelig økonomisk markeds makt til å styre seg selv og sin egen økonomi..

EU's Ministeren som var på CCTV i dag, og diskuterte Chinesisk tekstil idustriens export til EU , han mente det var ingen motforestillinger av noe slag der i gården mellom China og EU.....

Så verden kommer til å bli oppdresset med China klær så lenge verden består , ser det ut for ...

Så mitt reiseråd .........dammerud
ta minst mulig med deg i kofferten, du får alt i china... ha en fin tur !!!









[Endret 25.05.05 09:13 av skipper*]
lanse
26.05.2005 20:22
#6253

Endre
Mye ifra China er tatt ut, som alltid så er "taxisjoførene" i bakkant.


lanse
dammerud
27.05.2005 07:38
#8906

Endre
Sykler du lanse?

Kina er den "store stygge ulven" re oljebehovet.

Fra Aftenposten:
Sykkel taper for bil i Kina
For 15 år siden hørte Beijings sykkelstier til de beste, sikreste og triveligste i hele verden. Det var en mektig følelse å bølge frem med klyngen av syklister på vei hjem fra jobben. Syklistene eide gaten.
TORBJÖRN PETERSSON
Beijing

Bilen er i ferd med å fortrenge sykkelen som fremkomstmiddel i Kina. Her må syklistene ta i bruk all sin fantasi for å finne en vei gjennom bilkøen i sentrum av Beijing.

I dag gjøres den kinesiske hovedstadens sykkelveier smalere, mens det legges til en fil ekstra og parkeringsplasser for kjøretøy med motor. Syklistene har etter hvert fått samme rettigheter i Beijing-trafikken som plankton har i verdenshavene; hvis de ikke holder seg unna, er det slutt for dem.

En folkestimmel står bøyd over en sykkel som akkurat har kollidert og ligger forvridd i et gatekryss. Ved siden av ligger det et livløst menneske som ikke hadde den minste mulighet til å komme seg unna på sykkelen. Det er et skremmende, men ikke spesielt uvanlig syn.

Sterk vekst.

For hvert år er bilparken i Beijing vokst med 200 000 kjøretøyer; nå er den på to millioner. Det er nok å betrakte nybygde veier og ringveier for å kunne fastslå hvilken type fremkomstmiddel som prioriteres. Ved slutten av fjoråret sluttet byen med den tidligere obligatoriske sykkelregistreringen.
For 20 år siden var sykler fremdeles en av de største anskaffelser en familie gjorde i løpet av en generasjon. I dag er sykkelen nedgradert og ses på fremfor alt som et billig fremkomstmiddel for fattige.
- Politiet pleide å stå i denne gaten for å innkreve sykkelskatten på fire yuan pr. år (ca. det samme i kroner), men nå er den skatten fjernet, sier Wang Shifeng, som er vakt ved en parkeringsplass for sykler utenfor et kontor i sentrum av Beijing.
Raseri.

Mange syklister ble sinte og nektet å betale skatten da de merket at sykkelstiene etterhvert ble overtatt av bilene. De lokale trafikkmyndighetene tok protestene på alvor og avskaffet skatten. Det var ikke verdt bryderiet å bruke arbeidskraft til å kreve inn bare fire yuan pr. syklist.

Da skatten forsvant, ble det oppfattet som et klart tegn på at det virkelig gikk mot slutten for Kina som "sykkelens rike", og at landet gikk over til å dyrke bilen.

- Men fremdeles finnes det flere syklister i trafikken enn det er bilister, selv om syklistene ikke kan ses like mye som før, sier sykkelparkeringsvakten i Beijing sentrum.

Tettere i Nederland.

Guo Haiyan, som er nestformann i foreningen til sykkelens fremme, holder frem en diger bunke med statistikk og fastslår at det fremdeles finnes nesten 10 millioner sykler i Beijing.

- Det er blitt vanskeligere å bruke sykkelen, og de som har råd, skaffer seg bil i stedet, men det er fortsatt mange som sykler i bolig- og studentkvartalene, sier hun.

Kineserne er med andre ord fremdeles et syklende folk, men sykkeltettheten pr. innbygger er faktisk større i Nederland enn i Kina.
Guo Haiyan i foreningen til sykkelens fremme roter frem mer statistikk: Det er 470 millioner sykler i Kina, mot bare 20 millioner registrerte biler. Kina produserer 70 millioner nye biler hvert år, hvorav 50 millioner går til eksport.
Jeg glemmer å spørre henne om foreningen arbeider for å påvirke myndighetene for å tillate lys på syklene etter mørkets frembrudd. Hvis sykkellykt brukes i dag, anses det som et lovbrudd, for med sykkellys risikerer man å blende møtende bilister.

I stedet skjuler Beijings mørklagte forsteder på kveldstid mange syklister som tråkker omkring med livet som innsats.
Sitat slutt.

Konklusjon.
Bedre økonomi gir mulighet for kjøp av bil.
Bilen trenger veier, parkeringsplasser og ikke minst drivstoff.
20 mill nye kinesiske biler til eget bruk hvert år + import ? skaper et enormt behov for drivstoff.
Jo bedre økonomi jo flere biler jo mer drivstoffbehov desto mer oljeimport desto sto større press på oljeprisen desto raskere minsking av reserver osv > Peak oil.
Jan




[Endret 27.05.05 07:38 av dammerud]
dammerud
27.05.2005 14:00
#8910

Endre
ITfremstøt fra Kina i Norge !!!!!!

ZTE builds NMT’s CDMA network in Norway

Timo Poropudas

Nordic Wireless Watch - May 27, 2005 at 04:04 GMT





ZTE Corporation, China’s largest listed telecommunications manufacturer and leading wireless solutions provider, on Thursday unveiled Europe’s first CDMA-based digital trunking network in Oslo, Norway.

The network, built for NMT (Nordisk Mobiltelefon AB), is one of the pioneering technologies for Norway’s broadband mobile public services, special enterprises and professional subscribers. The network is based on ZTE’s GoTa (global open trunking architecture) technology, the world’s first CDMA-based trunking technology.

NMT has secured a license for the 450MHz band in Norway and in Sweden. It is bidding for the same radio frequency in Finland.

MobileMonday has invited all the Finnish bidders to a public discussion forum on Monday, June 6 starting at 18 o’clock in Restaurant Teatteri in downtown Helsinki.

The NMT network will cover the whole of Norway and phase I of the project is scheduled to be completed by June this year. A variety of services, including voice, high-speed data, professional trunking, and value-added services such as location, video monitoring, streaming media, cell broadcast and VOD, will be available to customers in Norway via the new network.

The network follows a successful demonstration of ZTE’s GoTa technology last year and the signing of a contract with NMT in December 2004.

“The demonstration of our technology last year received high praise from the Norwegian government,” said Fang Rong, Vice President of ZTE’s International Division. “The GoTa system’s feature-rich services, high spectrum efficiency and high data rate were particularly noted.

“ZTE is extremely proud of its position as a leading supplier of CDMA and its development of GoTa – the world’s first CDMA-based digital trunking mobile communications system – and we are very pleased to be bringing this technology to Europe.”

As a 3G-based technology, GoTa offers significant advantages over traditional 2G-based trunking systems, offering high-speed data services, smooth migration to all-IP, low installation costs and high-quality voice services.

ZTE offers a full CDMA portfolio, from network products to service platforms, service applications and terminals, all of which are in use around the world. ZTE’s GoTa system has been successfully deployed in more than 15 countries, including China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, and has become one of the world’s major digital trunking technologies.

Related News

dammerud
28.05.2005 08:27
#8925

Endre
Power plant needs generate business
(China Daily)
Updated: 2005-05-25 08:56

A host of infrastructure projects in China's energy sector are being pushed forward to satiate the country's soaring energy demands, a senior official from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said yesterday.

Addressing the Higher-level Forum on China's Energy Strategy of the eighth China Beijing International High-Tech Expo yesterday in Beijing, NDRC Vice-Minister Zhang Guobao said the central government has planned a raft of projects to ensure energy supply by promoting nuclear power, hydro-power and other renewables, and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector.

"We have completed the blueprint to build large scale LNG facilities across the country," said Zhang, referring to the LNG projects in Guangdong and Fujian in South China currently under construction.

Many gas companies, both foreign and domestic, such as Sinopec, PetroChina, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), BP and Shell, have shown interest in China's LNG sector and submitted proposals to the top policy maker, the NDRC, to build LNG terminals close to China's coastal cities.

These pending gas projects could be in line with the policy planner's blueprint layout.

The country will also put an intensified focus on developing nuclear and renewable energies to generate power, Zhang indicated.

"The renewable energy law passed earlier this year has set a target to generate 20 million kilowatts of power using renewables by 2020," said Zhang.

Wind power will be the focus of much development, said Zhang, given China's huge land mass which has great potential for application of the technology. The word's second largest energy consumer after the United States will offer public tenders to global wind power equipment vendors to build several 1,000 megawatt (MW) wind power plants across the country, said Zhang.

These wind power plants will be located in China's wind-rich areas such as Jiangsu in the east, Guangdong in the south, Inner Mongolia in the north and Jilin in northeastern China.

On the nuclear power front, the State Council has recently approved projects to extend the Ling'ao plant in South China's Guangdong Province and the Qinshan plant in Zhejiang Province.

Two 1,000-MW nuclear reactors will be added in the Ling'ao phase two project, said Zhang.

A further two 650-MW reactors will be put into the phase two project at the Qinshan plant.

China has vowed to increase nuclear power generation fourfold to 40,000 megawatts by 2020. It will eventually account for 4 per cent of the country's installed capacity - which means at least 30 new nuclear plants will need to be built within 15 years.

According to industry insiders more reactors are planned for Liaoning, Shandong and Guangdong.

The bidding process has recently been concluded for construction of 12 hydro-power generation units for the right bank power plant of the Three Gorges Project, Zhang added. The plant is expected to go operational in two to three years.

Surging energy demand and hefty investment in the energy sector have boosted rapid growth in China's equipment manufacturing industry and raw material production, said Zhang.

The fast expansion of the gas and power industry have provided a large number of orders to steel makers, ship builders and electric power equipment suppliers both in China and abroad.

China's large industrial producers such as Baosteel, Dalian Shipyard Co Ltd and other foreign power transmission & generation equipment makers such ABB, Alstom are all competing to supply the market Zhang said.


dow
30.05.2005 07:09
#8180

Endre
Det drar seg til i textil krigen

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- China will abolish export tariffs on a total of 81 categories of textile products beginning June 1, while scheduled tariff increases on another 74 categories of textiles will also be scrapped, according to published reports Monday.

Remove is apparently in response to U.S. import quotas imposed on some Chinese products earlier this month. See full story.

China's ministry of finance said in a statement on its Web site that the export duties it has charged on 78 types of textile products since Jan. 1 will be removed and it will also scrap plans to impose duties on exports of flax yarn.

China also restated its previously announced plans to end duties on two other types of textile products.

China's reversal of the decision to voluntarily impose and increase tariffs on textile exports comes just days ahead of a planned visit by US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, who is expected to raise the issue with Chinese authorities, according to AFX-Asia.

The move follows decisions by the U.S. and the EU to set new curbs on imports of Chinese made textile products after a steep surge in shipments this year.

Trade friction is rising around China's textile exports, as its shipments of certain products to U.S. and European markets soared as much as 500% in the first quarter of this year. A global quota system expired at the end of last year.

Earlier this month, the Bush administration said it will re-impose quotas on Chinese textile imports, ruling that the imports pose a threat to the U.S. clothing industry
OldNick
01.06.2005 00:27
#2426

Endre
AFX News Limited
China exploring ways to use forex reserves to buy oil - report
05.30.2005, 11:56 PM

BEIJING (AFX) - China is exploring ways to use some of its huge foreign exchange reserves to buy imported oil, the Shanghai Securities News reported, citing an unidentified source.

The newspaper said the plan, which was first proposed as early as 2000, would reach the twin objectives of making better use of the nation's foreign exchange and ensuring vital oil supplies.

The paper quoted Li Yang, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a former member of the monetary policy committee under the central bank, as saying the plan to use foreign exchange reserves to build up strategic oil reserves is reasonable.

But he said the biggest obstacle to the plan is coordinating the actions of various government ministries and departments.

China had foreign exchange reserves of 659 mln usd as of the end of March.

A number of economists have recommended that China diversify its reserves, which are still heavily weighted towards US dollars.

In March, Guo Shuqing, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, suggested China could use some of its foreign exchange reserves to purchase imported oil.

He also said at that time: 'Such a move would not cost us too much of our foreign exchange reserves... Purchasing 100 mln tons of oil would require only some 30 bln usd.'

China is already planning to build a strategic oil reserve though actual stocking of the reserve is said to be moving ahead slowly.

Niu Li, a researcher on global oil issues with the State Information Center, was quoted in the Shanghai Securities News today as saying the government should speed up this plan to shift reserves into oil in order to reduce investment risk.

......

Det har vaert snakk om aa bygge opptil 550 mill. fat reservekapasitet, men forelopig er ca. 30 mill. fat anlegg meldt under bygging.
dammerud
14.06.2005 23:11
#8967

Endre
Re Kina.
Jeg kom hjem i går etter en rundreise i Kina og Der går det så energien står på.

1. Motorveibyggingen går for fulle mugger.
2. Millioner av nye biler på veiene
3. Millioner biler bestillt til O.L i 2008 (spesielt drosjer)
4, Trafkkkaos i de fleste byene jeg var inne i.
5. ca 100 millioner kinesere har så god økonomi(meget god økonomi) at de har råd til ny bil.
6. Har reist litt på kanalene . Millioner av elvebåter som frakter kull(enorme mengder) byggematerialer og gods. osv .
De har dieselmotorer.

7. Overaskende .
Flere airconditinannlegg enn i USA.

Beijing har 14 mill innbyggere,trafikkaos og jeg antar flere millioner airconditionannlegg.
mestepartem av gamle Bejing er borte og nye 20 etasjers blokker gror opp som pattehatter samt en rekke finansinstitusjoner.

Shanghai med sine 16 mill inbyggere med store bygg, skyskrapere og bygging i forstedene og svære bilfelt i flere etasjer og en enorm trafikk. Tusenvis av nye boligblokker bygges. Alle har en airconditionkasse utenfor.

Her er det enorme tall.

Det er store kullforekomster i China og masse gruveulykker.

Moderniseringen fører til øket behov for energi.
I Shanghai er det nærmest strømrasjonering fra kl. 10 om kvelden.

Moderniseringen av bilparken har vært rettet mot personbiler og det er stort sett meget nye biler på veiene.
Lastebilene er av en eldre dato.

1300 millioner kinesere er i gang.

Og oljen er en viktig del i denne utviklingen.

Jan



[Endret 14.06.05 23:11 av dammerud]
Gomle
14.06.2005 23:15
#1871

Endre
flott innlegg Hr. Dammerud.
Tyren
15.06.2005 00:06
#2555

Endre
De sa på CNBC i dag at boligprisen var ned 20% i Shanghai siste år, og ant. boligsalg ned 70%. Rart... mulig jeg hørte/så feil.
dammerud
15.06.2005 06:14
#8969

Endre
Til Tyren. Det er riktig. Myndighetene satte med nye regler en stopp for den kraftige økning i boligprisene. masse boliger ble også bygget spekulativt for å tjene på stadig økende boligpriser.

Fyller opp med bakgrunnsstoff.
Hadde en kjempefin tur rundt i Kina, meget lærerik og via forelesninger så oppfattet, og lærte (Learning by knowing)
utrolig mye.
Særlig i elvebåt på noen av kanalene ga meg en bakgrunnsinnfo som jeg ikke tror mange europeere har vært borte i .
Millioner av elvebåter som tar tungtransporten langt inn i Kina og i et finmasket nett av store og små kanaler.

Hva var det som dro i gang denne økonomiske oppgang.
President Ding (72 år den gangen og han blir hyldet og lovprist nå , men Mao er meget lavt nede) åpnet Kina og sa at Shanghai skulle være dragekjeften som som åpnet seg for verdens handelen.
Men president Clinton gjorde sitt:
Her er en bakgrunnsstudie hentet 15.juni 2005;

PBS.

U.S trade with China. Expectations vs. Reality

av Ned Barker



A closer look at the debate over U.S. trade with China: What has been the result of permanent trade relations and China's entry into the World Trade Organization, how much does the trade deficit matter, do the Chinese have unfair advantages and what's the outlook going forward?

In the late 1990s, Washington was a sharply divided political city, but there was a growing consensus on one big issue. Most Republicans and Democrats agreed that trade with China would be a boon for America.

President Clinton summed up the mainstream consensus in Washington with a message to Congress in the spring of 2000. In a letter circulated to House members, he wrote, "China with more than a billion people is home to the largest potential market in the world… If Congress makes the right decision, our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in China made by American workers on American soil, without being forced to relocate manufacturing to China. …We will be able to export products without exporting jobs."
Her tok Clinton 100 % feil. Amerikanske foretak etablerte seg med skattefritak, PSA og billig arbeidskraft fra Kina.
Kina utdanner nå 400 000 ingeniører i året og 100 000 er og har vært studenter i USA. Det er store tall , men så er det enormt mange mennesker i Kina.)

Clinton was pushing Congress to permanently normalize trade relations with Beijing, helping to ease China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO). Big business was furiously lobbying Capitol Hill in favor of the legislation. It saw China, with its 1.2 billion consumers, as a vast new emerging market and many parts of Corporate America wanted a piece of the action.

Just weeks before the legislation received the president's signature, Robert Burt, chairman of the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs of leading American corporations, spoke boldly about the future. "This historic legislation will be remembered as the key that opened the door for America to sell its products and services to the world's largest emerging marketplace," he declared.

Other executives around the U.S. were equally strong in supporting U.S. trade with Beijing, and China's efforts to get into the WTO because they reasoned that China would then be required to play by the same trading rules as the WTO's other members. Moreover, as Europeans rushed to do business in China, American corporate captains did not want to be left behind. They worried that unless the U.S. backed the move, they would lose out to the Europeans, a worry Chinese officials played upon effectively from time to time during the 1990s.

On Capitol Hill, legislation to normalize trade with China got overwhelming bipartisan support in the Senate, where it passed, 83 votes to 15. Even in the House, where Democrats were split on the issue, the president received support from three-quarters of the Republicans, and the legislation passed by a wide margin, 237 to 197.

President Clinton signed the legislation at the White House in early October, and China joined the WTO 14 months later, on Dec. 11, 2001.




[Endret 15.06.05 06:27 av dammerud]
[Endret 15.06.05 06:52 av dammerud]
dammerud
15.06.2005 06:16
#8970

Endre
So How Did the U.S. Trade Opening with China Work Out?

For many, America's trade with China has not lived up to the enthusiastic advance billing from the Clinton administration, its Republican supporters on Capitol Hill and Corporate America.

Expanded trade with China has, in fact, been a blessing for large U.S. multinationals like Boeing, Caterpillar, and Cargill, which had trumpeted the prospect of a massive Chinese market for American products and services. China is the world's fastest growing market for commercial aviation, and needs billions of dollars worth of airplanes from Boeing. Its growing infrastructure has been a boon for companies like Caterpillar, which produces tractors and other heavy equipment. And it is importing billions of dollars worth of farm products, a boon to companies like Cargill. Last year, China bought $2.9 billion worth of soybeans -- the top U.S. export crop to China. China also has proven to be a growing market for U.S.-made fertilizer and chemicals.

But China has been a tougher market to crack for smaller and mid-sized American companies, like those selling bicycles, vacuum cleaners, and lawn mowers, who face stiff price competition from Chinese manufacturers of these products. And they also face discriminatory rules, burdensome red tape, language difficulties, and a population that earns only a fraction of what U.S. consumers make, and therefore lacks the purchasing power to buy consumer goods made in America.

Yvonne Smith, the communications director at the Port of Long Beach, literally sees the imbalance in U.S.-China trade. She reports that through Long Beach alone, the U.S. is importing $36 billion in goods yearly from China and exporting just $3 billion. By her account, the mix of products is very unfavorable to the U.S.

"We export cotton, we import clothing," Smith reports. "We export hides, we bring in shoes. We export scrap metal. We bring back machinery. We're exporting waste paper, we bring back cardboard boxes with products inside them."

Overall, the U.S. trade deficit with China reached a record $124 billion dollars in 2003 and the figure is headed even higher this year. Today, U.S. imports from China outpace U.S. exports to China by more than five to one, and the deficit shows no signs of abating.

These deficits are much larger than the trade deficits that the United States experienced in the 1980s and 1990s with Asian trading partners such as Japan. Put in historical perspective, America's current trade deficit with China is roughly double what it was at its height with Japan in the mid-1980s, when trade frictions between the U.S. and Japan led Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) to famously declare on the floor of the U.S. Senate: "We're in a trade war, and we're losing it."

dammerud
15.06.2005 06:19
#8971

Endre
Does the Trade Deficit with China Matter?

Economists disagree about the significance of the U.S. trade deficit with China. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a 12-member panel set up by Congress several years ago to report annually on our relations with China, says the burgeoning trade deficit is a matter of "long-term economic health and national security" for the U.S.

Conservative economist Paul Craig Roberts, who served in the Reagan administration, predicts the trade deficit will cause a crash of the U.S. dollar before long, and warns that the U.S. will wind up having a third-world economy, supplying raw-materials to other countries, who then ship back finished goods to the U.S. Economist Larry Mishel, president of the liberal Economic Policy Institute, contends that the trade deficit with China has cost the United States more than a million jobs over the past decade.

But free-traders like Washington Times columnist Bruce Bartlett argue that the U.S. can afford high trade deficits with countries like China because China and other countries from which we buy consumer goods turn around and invest roughly $500 billion a year of their capital in the U.S. economy.

"Economic theory tells us that if we ever reach the point where it becomes a problem, there is an automatic adjustment mechanism, which is that the dollar will fall in value," Bartlett says. "When the dollar falls, then that makes U.S. exports cheaper on the international market in terms of foreign currencies and it makes imports more expensive in terms of dollars."

Brink Lindsey, economist and vice president for research at the libertarian Cato Institute in Washington, adds that the bilateral trade deficit with China should not worry Washington. "Bilateral trade deficits don't matter at all -- except politically," Lindsey asserts. "It's an eyesore, politically, that we sell less to China than we buy. And it drives up protectionist pressures, so in that sense it's something to be concerned about. But as far as economic fundamentals, the fact that we run a trade deficit with China doesn't particularly matter. What matters is our overall trade balance."

However, it is the overall trade balance, now running at more than $500 billion a year, that worries some on Wall Street, as well as economists such as Larry Mishel.

"We have a trade deficit now that's running around 5 percent of GDP," says Mishel. "This is very large by historical standards, and you run the risk of foreign investors losing confidence in the United States, pulling back from the dollar, the exchange rate falling, and interest rates rising, and all that could cause a major recession in the United States."
Dette avsnittet illustrerer det som skjer i Kina:

Another reason for concern about the trade deficit with China among American industrialists and the U.S. labor movement is the size of China's massive population. With a workforce that is far larger than the combined populations of Japan, Korea and the other so-called "Asian Tigers," China is fast becoming the world's primary factory, producing everything from footwear, clothing, furniture, toys, and computers to big-screen television sets, lasers, space components and huge port cranes.

Analysts concerned with long-term U.S. economic security see China's seemingly inexhaustible supply of cheap labor, coupled with the Chinese government's commitment to a rapid development strategy and the movement of Chinese industries into high-tech sectors, as posing a long-term threat to American producers across the board.





[Endret 15.06.05 06:22 av dammerud]
nedfortelling
15.06.2005 07:55
#3289

Endre

Sterk produksjonsvekst i Kina
Av TDN Finans

Industriproduksjonen i Kina steg 16,6 prosent på årsbasis i mai sammenliknet med måneden før.

Dette viser foreløpige tall fra kinesiske myndigheter offentliggjort onsdag, ifølge Bloomberg News.

Ifølge en sammenstilling foretatt av Bloomberg News var det på forhånd ventet en oppgang på 15,8 prosent på månedsbasis.

I forrige måned steg industriproduksjonen med 16,1 prosent på årsbasis.

Så langt i år er industriproduksjonen i Kina opp med 16,3 prosent sammenlignet med samme periode i fjor.

dammerud
15.06.2005 08:03
#8973

Endre
Re produksjonen, så er det mest i lavteknologi som silke, klær, sko osv. viderefoeredling av innkjøpte produkter.
var på 3 silkefabrikker under mitt besøk og voldsom produksjon av silkeprodukter so er av meget høy kvalitet.
Kjøpte selv silkedyner, skjorter, jakker og andre relaterte silkevarer.
Anbefales å kjøpe silke i Kina.

Her finner du infoen om forholdet Kina - USA

forholdet USA - Kina




[Endret 15.06.05 08:34 av dammerud]
sentrum
15.06.2005 08:56
#862

Endre
Utrolig dette med Kina, var selv en rekke ganger i Shanghai i perioden 1986 til 88.
Bybilde den gang var preget av sykkler med trafikkpoliti som dirigerte traffikken fra bambustårn i veikanten.
Ikke en skyskraper å se men men som nå en utrolig forurensning forårsaket av kullfyrte ovner.
McStock
15.06.2005 12:00
#621

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Jeg syns det er et par aspekter som mangler her.

For det første er det jo ikke slik at Kina kan fortsette å stjele markedsandeler og arbeidsplasser fra USA og verden forøvrig fortsetter som om ingenting har skjedd. Kinas vekst er i all hovedsak eksportdrevet. Og størstedelen av eksporten kjøpes av amerikanere for penger de har lånt av Kina. Når den dagen kommer, og jeg tror tidligere heller enn sent, at amerikanerne ikke har råd til å opprettholde sitt overforbruk vil det ramme Kina hardt. En markant nedgang i eksport til USA vil gi umiddelbart utslag i betydelig overkapasitet i produksjon. Det blir Kinas første virkelige test som en kapitalistisk nasjon.

For det andre er det, som tidligere nevnt på topicen her, relativt enkle varer Kina vokser på. Når det gjelder mer avansert teknologisk utvikling ligger Kina mange tiår etter den vestlige verden og Japan. Selv med de utdanningstallene for ingeniører som du refererte, dammerud, så vil Kina måtte legge ned enorme satsinger innen grunnforskning før de har mulighet til å representere en reell trussel innen utvikling av ny teknologi. Med fare for at jeg ikke husker tallene rett så mener jeg Kinas satsing inne grunnforskning for 2004 var noe sånt som 1/100 av USAs. Dette gjelder forøvrig ikke bare teknologi, men også medisinske aspekter.

I tillegg har de en markeds- og finansstruktur som totalt mangler erfaring i håndtering av opp- og nedturer i økonomisk utvikling. Alt i alt har Kina en enormt lang vei å gå, og den veien kommer til å ha både mange dype nedturer og høye topper.
josteinih
15.06.2005 12:18
#19

Endre
Veksten i Kina er så enorm at flaskehalser som forhindrer videre vekst kan gjøre seg gjeldende. Hva kan stoppe Kinas vekst fremover?
- Mangel på energi, spesielt olje på kort sikt
- Stål (ser ut til at problemet er forbigående)
- Mangel på andre råvarer?
- Revaluering av Yuanen

En ressurs som derimot ikke er en flaskehals er størrelsen på arbeidsstyrken.

Tipper peak oil om noen år setter en stopper for Kinaeventyret...
dow
15.06.2005 12:36
#8279

Endre
Verden er inne i et eventyrlig bullmarked i boligpriser. (Se bare på prisene i Norge). Dette er mye drevet av investeringer fra store fond og finansinstutisjoner og har blitt drevet av lav real rente som følge av at billig arbeidskraft i Kina har gitt verden mulighet til å vokse uten for mye inflasjon. Dersom dette er en boble som sprekker vil veksten i Kina og alle andre land stoppe rimelig kjapt med deflasjon som resultat og da sitter kineserene med en haug av overkapasitet og gigantisk arbeidsledighet. Opptøyer og krav om demokrati vil igjen bli tema. En oljekrise kan trigge et worldwide krakk i boligmarkedet. Foreløbig så er det kun Australia og UK som har sett nedganger i boligprisene sannsynligvis trigget av rentehevinger i disse to landene.
josteinih
15.06.2005 12:46
#22

Endre
Dow,

Enig med deg der. Jeg frykter at vi står foran en periode med økende inflasjon i den industrialiserte delen av verden. Både økte transportkostnader og redusert global vekst følger av høye oljepriser. De billige produktene fra Kina blir ikke så billige lenger, og hvor skal eksportveksten komme fra? Det blir i hvert fall ikke til USA som har mest å tape på et peak oil scenario som er i ferd med å matrialisere seg.
McStock
15.06.2005 12:53
#624

Endre
Aaaaahhhhh hvor det skal bli deilig med litt skikkelig krisestemning i økonomien. Scenarioet dow tegner må komme, det er helt uunngåelig. Det et er bare et spørsmål om tid. Ubalansene i verdensøkonomien må korrigeres.

Her skal shortes eiendomsselskaper og retailsjapper (les walmart/kmart) i mengder. Så snart timingen blir rett - foreløpig har jeg bomma litt med timingen når det gjelder short dollar, men tålmodighet vil gi resultater...
dow
22.06.2005 23:48
#8414

Endre
He added that in addition to making equipment in China, Cisco plans to outsource much of its research and development to China
Utmothavet
23.06.2005 00:54
#5481

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Velkommen hjem dammerud.
Ser Dammerud har vert i Kina - men har problem som meg å gjengi opplevelsen. Shanghai har i dag mere en 20 mill mennesker - når noen snakker om 16-18 mill er det registrerte med "pass" fre en provins til en annen. .... alle uregistrerte er ikke med.

Har fra mine siste turer til Kina (3-4 ganger i året) skrive litt på JIN tropicen, - men energi krisen kan velte og delvis stoppet veksten i Kina. Industrien må stoppe 2 av 7 dager i uken, - grunnet strømm mangel.

Industri vekst er enorm, og da ikke mest av Kinesiske bedrifter, - men en rekke land fra hele verden. Spesielt er Taiwanske selskaper i flertall i en rekke byer, - og største innbygger tallet i noen by utenfor Taiwan ligger 1-2 timer utenfor Shanghai.... med mere en 1500 bedrifter..... og samme by her ca 500 bedrifter fra andre land. Nabo byen har nesten samme situasjon......

Ser noen mener USA er en viktig faktor i Kina bilde - tror ikke det - ikke for Kina, - men for USA. Har hatt med kunder fra USA til Kina - og alle er meget overrasket av dagens Kina. Den som ikke har vert der siste 10-12 år..... glem historie og bli oppdatert. Dersom en reiser inn i landet - eksempel Xian - kan se likhetsrekk - men også der er industri revulusjonen merkbar. Industrilønn rundt Shanghai er høy (180 USD pr mnd) men dersom en ser på alle andre provinser - er lønns kost langt lavere (faktisk 30-50% av Shanghai).

Staten bygger enorme mengder med motorveier - men veksten i bilpark er større - og veiregler er sterkt mangel full - og andre billister stoler ikke på andre billister.... Kanalene vil være en viktig del av ifrastrukturen i mange år ennå. Vist ikke denne eksisterte ville det bli total sammen brudd i infrastruktur.

Effektivitet snakker vi om i Norge - men vi skal lete lenge etter "arbeidere" som er mere effektive en i Kina. Er i Russland nå - og her blir det importert mange Kinesere. Det eneste dem klager på - er for korte arbeidsdager - dem ønsker å jobbe minimum 12 timer....
Min påstand; Kina klarer seg uten USA - men ikke omvendt ...
dammerud
26.06.2005 07:55
#9030

Endre
Takk for innlegget ditt, Utmothavet.

Var i to av de nye industribyene utenfor Shanghai. Med tipp/topp moderne utenlandske bedrifter. Voldsom byggevirksomhet . Og biltrafikken er enorm . Bare nye flotte biler.

Ikke mye svinger på lavsletta skal jeg si deg.

I et område med høyt grunnvann og med tusener av fiskedammer og rismarker satte de opp pillarer kilometer på kilometer snorrett så langt jeg kunne se for å ha veikroppen godt over flomnivået.
3 kjørebaner i hver retning.

Du nevnte kanalene og elvebåter.
Det finnes millioner av disse , mange.

Jan.
dammerud
26.06.2005 08:12
#9032

Endre


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

June 26, 2005
With Bid for Unocal, U.S. Struggles on China Policies
By RICHARD W. STEVENSON
WASHINGTON, June 25 - President Bush's initial response to the proposed takeover of a major American oil company by a Chinese rival has been to duck. It is not hard to see why.

The $18.5 billion offer by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation for Unocal, which had already made a deal to be acquired by the American oil giant, Chevron, is forcing the administration to confront its own internal rifts over whether China should be viewed as friend, foe or something in between.

It is putting a spotlight on a host of related economic and foreign-policy issues - from North Korea's nuclear program to America's growing dependence on foreign capital and the upward pressure on gasoline prices caused by China's thirst for oil - that defy easy solutions.

Hardly a week goes by without Mr. Bush vowing to make America less dependent on foreign sources of energy, so any deal that increases that dependence - or is even perceived as doing so - would create a problem for him.

And the situation has left the administration once again confronting the likelihood that its numerous ties to the oil industry will become a political issue.

"It's nothing but a headache for them," said James B. Steinberg, who was deputy national security adviser under President Bill Clinton.

For now, the administration is in a holding pattern. With no deal yet agreed to, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow told the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday that the issue remained hypothetical. The White House has avoided substantive comment on the matter.

People inside and outside the administration who are involved in the matter said the White House would do its best to avoid taking a position for a while by referring a deal, if one is completed, to a body known as the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, which reviews sensitive acquisitions by companies from abroad on the basis of national security.

"We have so much on the plate with China," said an adviser to Mr. Bush, who would speak only on the condition of anonymity because the president discourages unauthorized discussions about internal deliberations. "How do you come down hard on them for this deal?"

Dealing with energy policy has always been politically fraught for Mr. Bush, who got his start in business in the mid-1970's as an independent oilman in West Texas and who has often been cast by his opponents as a tool of the oil industry. Vice President Dick Cheney is even more of a lightning rod for that type of criticism, having led Halliburton, the giant oilfield services company, before joining the Republican ticket in 2000.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was a director of Chevron for a decade before Mr. Bush's election, and even had a Chevron tanker named for her. (The tanker has subsequently been renamed.)

Even if he were inclined to take a strong stand on the takeover, Mr. Bush would still have to navigate divisions among his advisers over how to proceed.

In recent months, the Pentagon and the State Department have been taking a harder line toward China, reflecting a broader push by conservatives in and out of government.

In a speech in Singapore this month, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld criticized China for stepping up military spending in the absence of an obvious threat, and said growth in political freedom in China has not matched economic growth. State Department officials have been blunt in stating that China has not done enough to use its economic clout to press North Korea into serious negotiations about ending its nuclear program.

Even before the oil deal was in the headlines, the White House was working furiously to file the rough edges off a soon-to-be-released Pentagon report on China that described the country as a potential military threat. And in just two weeks, Ms. Rice is expected to land in Beijing, pressing anew for help on North Korea and making the point that if the North refuses to give up its nuclear program, the administration wants China to join in on sanctions. The Chinese have made clear they want to avoid that at all costs.

But if Mr. Bush's national security advisers have tended toward a more hawkish view of late, his economic team has by and large viewed China as a vast market to be opened, a vital source of capital for the United States and a country whose political liberalization can be encouraged through economic engagement. Taking punitive action against China now, Mr. Snow told the Senate Finance Committee on Thursday, would be counterproductive.

It is still not clear where some of the major players in the internal debate, especially Mr. Cheney, the primary architect of the administration's energy policy, may come out.

"It will require some presidential leadership to address this array of issues and assign priorities and deal with the politics," said Richard C. Bush, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who is an authority on China.

The coming talks with Beijing over North Korea's nuclear threat come against the backdrop of a trans-Pacific relationship that grew warmer after a rocky start at the beginning of the Bush administration. But the diplomatic maneuvering has been subject to periodic flare-ups of tension over a variety of issues, including Taiwan and China's support for Iran, a major supplier of China's oil.

"Remember, to the Chinese everything is related: the economics, the diplomacy, the military posture. It's all one," said a senior administration official, who declined to speak on the record because of the sensitivity of the diplomacy.

The White House's reasons for playing for time, and avoiding any immediate escalation of tensions with Beijing, start with the fact that its most urgent diplomatic priority right now - defusing the nuclear threat from North Korea - depends to a great extent on co
dammerud
26.06.2005 08:17
#9033

Endre
]
einarf [843]
Kom med dette innleget på "PEAK OILTOPICEN" Legger det inn her.
24.06.05 23:01


Høyere industriproduksjon i Kina enn forventet i mai. Økningen skyldes økt utenlands etterspørsel.
Kinas oljeimport økte i mai 8,2% fra mai 2004. Fra nyttår tom. mai mnd økte importen 5,1%.
Disse mai tallene viser at oljeetterspørselen holder seg godt i Kina.

I juni reduserte IEA etterspørselveksten for olje i Kina med 0,5%, eller 10.000 fat pr, dag, fra 7,6% til 7,1% for 2005.

China May oil imports climb, product imports slide
Fri Jun 24, 2005 04:55 AM BST
Printer Friendly | Email Article | RSS
BEIJING (Reuters) - China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, imported 8.2 percent more crude oil in May than a year earlier, while imports of refined petroleum products fell sharply, official figures showed on Friday.
China imported 10.41 million tonnes of crude oil last month or 2.45 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to the average for 2004 and down sharply from around 3 million bpd in April, signalling that demand could be slowing.
Imports in the first five months of the year rose 5.1 percent to 52.3 million tons, customs figures show.

Refiners kept processing rates high through the month, taking advantage of strong export markets and cutting costly imports of refined oil products.

Imports of light diesel fell 91.6 percent to 25,313 tonnes compared with the same period of 2004, while fuel oil shipments slid 40.7 percent to 1.61 million tonnes, the General Administration of Customs said.

Shipments of gasoline -- China's largest single product export category -- were up 47 percent at 671,754 tonneswhile exports of diesel soared 141 percent compared with the previous year to 132,476 tonnes.

Government price caps on gasoline and diesel have meant refiners have made little or no profit on products churned out for domestic consumption.

Some refiners also may have been building up diesel stockpiles ahead of an expected surge in summer demand to fuel generators during forecast brownouts.

Power demand could outstrip supply by up to 30 gigawatts -- three quarters of the shortfall that last summer triggered brownouts across two thirds of China's provinces.

The International Energy Agency said earlier this month that China's rapid oil demand growth contracted in April as refiners ran down stocks and cut petroleum product imports. It shaved its demand growth estimate for the year by 10,000 bpd to 7.1 percent.


dammerud
28.06.2005 11:33
#9047

Endre
Se på denne.

Tallet på brukere av internett i Kina har nå passert 100 millioner. Bare USA
har i dag flere nettbrukere, med 135 millioner, meldte statlige medier i
Beijing tirsdag.

Kommentar : Rotet meg inn på en nettkafe i beijing kl. 23.00 på kvelden. over 40 maskiner og like mange ungdommer, alle maskinene med kinesiske skrifttegn hvor så og si alle chattet eller drev med spill.
Greidde med litt hjelp og fiksfakserier å få latinske bokstaver og å komme inn på Stocktalk.
Fikk skrevet innlegg, men gikk ikke med e-mail

Hørte senere at Kina filtrerer internett hvor ord som demokrati og demonstrasjon bl.a annet filtreres bort.

Jan

Prøvde med e-mail, men fikk bare kinesiske skrifttegn.

Jan.





[Endret 28.06.05 11:33 av dammerud]
[Endret 28.06.05 11:34 av dammerud]
dammerud
03.07.2005 04:35
#9078

Endre
Hvem styrer Kina og med hvilken agenda.

En elite som er avhengig av kunnskap, arbeidsinnsats og å kunne levere og med en ny ideologi.
Se følgende innlegg.':

World News



July 02, 2005

Mao-style call for the party line
By Jane Macartney in Beijing
An education campaign has conjured up the days of the Cultural Revolution



GUO HONG is one of 69 million people in the Chinese Communist Party, the world’s largest political organisation.



It is a privilege that gives him not only a better chance at career promotions but also the advantages of extensive connections in a country where who you know counts for more than what you know.

Mr Guo (not his real name) knows that he must pay a price to be among the chosen few, and not just his dues of a few pounds a year. More important is his participation in a system of ideological indoctrination reminiscent of the days when students brandished Chairman Mao’s Little Red Book to demonstrate their dedication to the Communist cause.

This is a China at odds with the picture of housewives haggling over the price of tofu or trendy youngsters sipping margaritas and dancing to Britney Spears.

The party’s determination to maintain an iron political grip seems hard to reconcile with a country so eager to embrace capitalism that it attracts $1 billion a week in foreign investment, and where branches of McDonald’s have sprouted even in the smaller towns.

China must be the fastest-changing society on earth. Yet those who oversee the Communist Party want the change to be on their terms. They want to preserve the old ways that have ensured that this highly centralised and secretive organisation has maintained its control over 1.3 billion people for more than half a century.

But grumbling is to be heard even at the grassroots of the party, and the latest source of the discontent among the party faithful has been a nine-month “education campaign” that ended this week.

Party members have been required to study a series of secret documents. They had to stop work for days to attend classes and group discussions.

They were required to put down their own views, a practice that conjures up the self-criticisms of the ultra-leftist days of the 1966-76 Cultural Revolution. This had to be done in longhand: using a computer was forbidden lest participants delegated the job to tech-savvy children or e-mail each other a pro-forma essay.

Party members complained that they were ordered to come to work more than an hour early or stay late to join study sessions. Many pretended to be abroad or out of town. Most were banned from unnecessary travel. “Maintaining the education of the advanced nature of Communist Party members” was the campaign’s less than catchy title, and even after nine months few party members could explain what it meant.

“It’s something about making sure that we party members are more aware about economic reforms than ordinary people,” one young man said. “It’s a way for President Hu Jintao to stamp his imprint on the party now that he has been in power for a couple of years,” another middle-aged member said. “He needs to make people realise that he is in charge, and not Jiang Zemin.”

Mr Jiang stepped down as president and party chief nearly three years ago, but still exerts broad influence through his network of high-ranking protégés. Zu Jiahe, a professor at the Institute of Marxism at Peking University, said: “This campaign requires every party member to look at himself and improve himself. In thinking you should be more upright, in working you should be more efficient, in difficulties you should stand on the front line.”

Why do party members need to be reminded of their duty? Many party members had been seduced away from the belief in frugality and serving the people that was central to Mao’s revolution, Dr Zu said.

“The pity is some party members have forgotten their role. That’s why there is more and more corruption these days. The ability of the party to rule has decreased, the prestige of the party has decreased and the trust of the vast masses in the party has weakened.

“Party members are the elite of our society. Only if they think unanimously will society have cohesion and energy.”

But those party members have been less than impressed, and their mobile phones have hummed with anonymous messages mocking the campaign.

“I have been committed to the party all my life,” one elderly official said. “Why do I have to take part in something so humiliating? I feel like a schoolboy.” Others preferred to joke about a campaign that relies on ideology to reinforce legitimacy at a time of change.




CalleCanon
03.07.2005 08:43
#1896

Endre
Spennende artikkler. Utviklingen i China er interessant (så klart)! "Plutselig" så har bl.a jeg mye å takke China før. Jeg tenker på at jeg har tjent på shipping og oljeaksjer pga at først og fremst chinesene har drivit opp priser på f.eks. shipping-rater og olje.
At omfavne kapitalismen og siden tro at det går å opprettholde samme kontroll over folket som tidligere tror jeg ikke går over lenger tid. Med kapitalismen så kommer demokratien som en sterk kraft, som en snøboll som har begynnt å rulle. Du kan ikke ha litt demokrati, det blir antingen eller. Dere husker hva som skjedde i Øst-blokket når Lech Walesa som fagforeningsleder på et verft i Polen klarte å sette i gang en "liten" reformprosess . Forr eller senere så vil man få antingen demokrati eller tilbake til total statssyring. Det skal bli interessant å se hvordan China, eller heller kommunistpartiet og ledelsen, takkler den transformasjonen til demokrati som jeg tror nå kommer. Om overgangen blir gradvis pga at ledelsen skjønner at de må liberalisere eller om det blir revolusjon for at "Partiet" holder på det "gammle".
Ellers så er det spennende hva som skjer når (ikke hvis, regner med at det må komme) Yuan blir sluppet fri eller skrives opp. Chinesene får mer kjøpkraft, vanskeligere for chineser å eksportere. Vil da deres økonomi bremses og de vil kjøpe mindre fra utlandet eller vil deres bedrede kjøpkraft bidra til ennå større import og bl.a mer chinesiske turister. Oppskriving av Yuan, skal man tørre å håpe på det?
CC
dammerud
03.07.2005 17:16
#9080

Endre
Tar med dette fra Peakoiltopicen. via "TEO"

UPDATE: China's Crude Run Cuts May Not Be Bearish Signal

Friday July 1, 2005, 6:36 pm

UPDATE: China's Crude Run Cuts May Not Be Bearish Signal

SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--China plans to trim some of its refinery operating rates this month, but this alone may not necessarily be a strong signal that demand from Asia's runaway oil consumer has slowed.

Sinopec Zhenhai Refining & Chemical Co. (1128.HK), China's largest oil refinery, plans to process 1.47 million metric tons of crude oil this month, down from a record 1.48 million tons in June, according to a source.

This is the equivalent of 347,600 barrels a day, down from 361,600 b/d in June, which is approximately the plant's nameplate capacity.

Several large refineries along the country's coast have also scheduled run cuts this month, a trend that has raised some eyebrows in the industry.

Strong Chinese demand for oil has been a major factor behind the run-up in benchmark prices. New York crude futures hit a record high of $60.95 a barrel Monday, on concerns that supply may not keep pace with bullish consumption growth later this year in key markets such as the U.S. and China.


Although prices have since retreated, they're still nearly 45% higher in the past one year.

Significantly, however, China's refinery runs alone don't tell the whole demand story. Refinery operations are being reduced from already-high rates. The country processed 24.56 million tons of crude in May, 6% more than a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This brought the January-to-May tally a sizable 8.3% higher compared with the same period last year.

Also key is how much oil refiners are holding in storage.
Beijing doesn't release data on oil inventories, but stock levels are understood to be near capacity given high crude imports and a slowdown in domestic products sales.

State-owned oil companies have come under pressure from a breakdown between products prices in the tightly controlled domestic market and sky-high international prices.
This has cut into profits and should encourage stockpiling - implying this month's run cuts aren't particularly out of line.

Crude imports, meantime, were up a firm 5.1% on year between January to May at 52.3 million tons despite sharply higher prices, while domestic crude production was up 5% at 74.81 million tons.

Further evidence of a lack of room to store oil was seen earlier this week, when state-owned Unipec emerged to offer some of its term crude cargoes on the spot market.

China's total oil demand is forecast to rise 7.1% this year to 6.89 million b/d, according to the International Energy Agency, the OECD watchdog.

While this is well short of the 15.4% jump in 2004, that year's increase was compared with a low base for 2003, when much of the region's economic activity - and oil demand - was hit by the SARS epidemic.




[Endret 03.07.05 17:17 av dammerud]
dammerud
06.07.2005 09:29
#9091

Endre
Her er fasiten:

Kina venter et handelsoverskudd på 70 milliarder dollar (470 milliarder
kroner) i 2005, over dobbelt så mye som i fjor.

CalleCanon
06.07.2005 09:41
#1899

Endre
En liten Yuan-appresiering hadde nok vart på sin plass ja.
CC
OldNick
07.07.2005 15:45
#2492

Endre
Reuters
Heatwave bakes China, power demand up
Thursday July 7, 1:00 am ET

BEIJING (Reuters) - Searing tempEratures across booming China have driven up energy demand, exposed an over-reliance on coal and are taking a toll on industry, Xinhua news agency said.

Power shortages this summer should be "much more serious" than last year -- when China faced its worst energy crunch in two decades -- a source from the State Electricity Dispatching Center were quoted as saying.

"Many experts attribute the power shortage to the skyrocketing economy, especially high-power-consuming industries," Xinhua said in an overnight report.

China's unbalanced energy structure was also to blame, because excessive reliance on thermal power meant coal shortages could "immediately lead to a terrible power generation breakdown," Xinhua said.

China has poured billions of dollars into expanding its power transmission and generation capacity, but the national power system is forecast to struggle to meet demand until 2006-2007.

Generators nationwide are expected to crank out 25 to 30 gigawatts less power than consumers want to use this summer with no end to the crippling heatwave in sight.

Temperatures were expected to stay above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) across most of China over the next few days, especially in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, which saw its hottest day in 70 years on Sunday when the mercury hit 39 C (102 F), Xinhua said.

The heat had forced the suspension of construction projects in many cities and caused water shortages, fires and traffic accidents, it said.

On Monday, almost 100 people in Shanghai were poisoned when toxic ammonia burst from a steel container that exploded after baking for hours under the sun, the China Daily said.

"The local production safety bureau came to the conclusion the blast was caused by the high temperature making the substance expand," the newspaper said.

NIGHT SHIFTS

Power consumption in Shanghai had set three records in a week and the local grid was already stretched to capacity, Xinhua said.

Premier Wen Jiabao has called on government officials to set an example by setting air-conditioners at 26 C or above and abandoning Western-style suits at meetings. Many cities have limited power use by big consumers and told factories to shut down or introduce night shifts to cut electricity demand.

"The power limitation policies apparently affect the economic results of many industries," Xinhua said without elaborating.

China was rushing to expand and guarantee power supplies and had urged local governments to set different electricity prices for different times of day, Xinhua said.

Beijing would also reform the market for coal for electricity generation use to "solve the contradiction between the soaring power consumption and insufficient coal supply," Zhao Yuzhu, deputy head of the State Electricity Dispatching and Telecommunication Center, was quoted as saying.

The heatwave had also taken a toll on agriculture, extending a drought in parts of eastern, western and central China, Xinhua said.

"Farmers have had to postpone the time for the autumn sowing, which should be done after the summer harvesting. They are worried about missing the right season," it said.
dammerud
13.07.2005 09:43
#9156

Endre
Kina med gigantoverskudd
Av dn.no

Den kinesiske eksportmaskinen har gått for fulle mugger i første halvår. Årets handelsoverskudd ligger an til en tredobling.

Verden får ikke nok av kinesisk elektronikk og tekstiler. Taperne er USA og EU-landene, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

Kinesiske selskaper eksporterer hva de makter for tiden. I juni økte den kinesiske eksporten med 30,6 prosent til 66 milliarder dollar. Importen vokste med 15,1 prosent til 56,3 milliarder dollar.

Kina fikk et handelsoverskudd på nesten 40 milliarder dollar (264 milliarder kroner) i første halvår. Dette er allerede mer enn hele fjoråret.

Det et ventet handelsoverskuddet vil passere 100 milliarder dollar i år – en tredobling sammenlignet med 2004.


chateau
13.07.2005 09:53
#1464

Endre
Kjøpte en del kunst, fortrinnsvis malerier da jeg var i Kina i mai.
Nå behøver en ikke å reise til Kina for å få utført tjenester derfra.
Oljemalerier eksempelvis er allerede stor butikk der.
Legger ved en link hvor de som er interressert kan sende digitale bilder av noe de vil ha malt (potrett av barn, barnebarn, et landskap du er glad i etc).
Prisene er rimelige og kvaliteten god.

http://www.oilpaintingdali.com/index.asp
wave
13.07.2005 09:59
#1120

Endre
Sender sporenstreks over et foto av en elg. Joda, den står der i solnedgangen.

Hva i all verden er vitsen med å la en person som sitter på den andre siden av kloden male av et foto av dine barn vedkommende aldri har sett?
chateau
13.07.2005 10:24
#1466

Endre
ref wave [1122]

99,9% av alle potrettfoto blir malt på denne måten.
Antagelig er du blant de gjenværende heldige 0,1 % som kjenner en potrettmaler, eller kanskje du bruker en gatemaler når du er i syden med familien?
Resultatet blir ofte imponerende der også.
eshuse
21.07.2005 13:30
#1185

Endre
Kina revaluerer sin yuan fra klokken 13 i dag, melder Reuters. Kursen blir 8,11. Dollartilknytningen gis opp, men valutaen skal fortsatt holdes i et intervall på +/- 0,3 prosent mot dollar.



Hva var gammel kurs mot dollar?
Stratofortress
21.07.2005 13:38
#2611

Endre

8,28 yuan pr. dollar
Opportunity
21.07.2005 13:40
#2340

Endre
Det er bare 2,11% fra ca. 8,28. Og fremdeles semi-pegging mot dollar. Det er jo bare symbolsk og betyr jo lite. Men dersom amerikanerene er fornøyd med dette så kan jo Kineserene smile bredt.
OldNick
10.08.2005 15:52
#2564

Endre
China unveils yuan basket
By OMAR EL AKKAD
Wednesday, August 10, 2005
Globe and Mail Update

China revealed for the first time on Wednesday the contents of the basket of currencies against which the yuan trades.

The currency basket's main components are the U.S. dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the South Korean won.

The currencies of Singapore, Britain, Malaysia, Russia, Australia, Canada and Thailand are also included in the basket, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, said during a speech to launch a new operations centre for the People's Bank of China in Shanghai. The news confirms some economists' speculation that Canada's currency would have a place in the basket, but as sort of a “second-tier” component — not as influential in setting the exchange rate as the currencies of China's biggest trading partners.

However the weighting of each currency was not disclosed.

Since the yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar was loosened in May, the currency has appreciated in value slightly, strengthening from 8.11 initially to 8.1062 on Wednesday.

China also announced Wednesday it will allow some of the nation's biggest companies to trade directly with banks in China's foreign exchange market. Restrictions were loosened for businesses that import and export at least $2-billion (U.S.) a year.

Both moves indicate the government is willing to let market forces play a bigger role in China's economy. However the timing still caught traders and investors off guard. Speculation among foreign exchange players focused on when the next yuan revaluation would be, not the contents of the currency basket. Some analysts predicted it could be months or years before the contents became known.
dammerud
08.10.2005 00:02
#9991

Endre
China tips $100bn trade surplus

Friday, October 7, 2005 Posted: 1302 GMT (2102 HKT)


Export goods are loaded onto a cargo vessel at Qingdao port.YOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

China
International Trade
United States
or Create Your Own
Manage Alerts | What Is This? BEIJING, China (AP) -- China predicts its trade surplus could triple to $100 billion this year, lifted by a 30 percent jump in exports, state media reported Friday.

China's Commerce Ministry warned that the surge could create new trade tensions, put additional pressure on China to revalue its currency and cause financial risks, the official China Daily newspaper reported.

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan was quoted as saying that China needed to do more to boost domestic consumption as a way to shrink the trade gap.

China's trade surplus from January to August reached $60 billion, already far exceeding the $32 billion recorded for all of 2004.

By year's end, the surplus was expected to balloon to $90 billion to $100 billion, the ministry said.

Exports have increased despite China's decision in July to make its currency, the yuan, about 2 percent stronger against the U.S. dollar, and allow it to trade in a restricted float against a basket of currencies.

Chinese textile and clothing exports have surged with the lifting of global textile quotas on January 1, and the United States and Europe have put limits on Chinese textile shipments to protect their own clothing manufacturers.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be in Beijing later this month for talks with Chinese economic officials.

U.S. officials would like to see China accelerate its efforts to allow the value of yuan set by market forces.

The U.S. trade deficit with China, which reached $162 billion last year, an all-time high with any country, has been a persistent source of irritation between the two trading powers.

tea
08.10.2005 00:10
#3355

Endre
Dette er en tråd med mening. 1/5 av jordens befolkning i sterk vekst fortjener oppmerksomhet. Imidlertid har vi en tendens til å glemme India med sine drøye 1 mrd innbyggere. India har i flere år hatt sterk vekst, og med en gradvis åpning mot omverdenen vil landet få stor innflytelse på verdensøkonomien fremover.
Riktignok ligger de en del år bak Kina i utvikling, men de vil forlenge den perioden hvor det tilbys billige varer og tjenester til vesten, samt bidra til økte råvarepriser i mange år fremover.
Til glede for råvarebaserte økonomier som Norge....
dammerud
08.10.2005 07:31
#9992

Endre
Til Tea.

Kina/India er også hvilken løsning på befolkningsveksten man velger eller må velge.

Kina med sine 1,4 milliarder og India med sine nå + - 1 milliard.

Man skjønte i Kina at man måtte gjøre noe med befolkningstilveksten.
Kom med en drakonisk løsning som følges strengt opp av myndighetene og som er "akseptert " av befolkningen.

. 1 barns familie med muligheter for to barn dersom det første barn var handicapped eller far og mor kom hver fra etbarns familie og for gardbrukerfamilie hvis første barn var ei pikebarn. Selektiv abort i Kina har nå ført til at ca 95 % er pikefostre ! og det mangler ca 100 million unge jenter som skulle være i produktiv alder nå !

Drastisk nedgang i befolkningsveksten og høyere levestandard + en ny økonomisk politikk har ført til den nye situasjon.

India,Pakistan og Bangladash praktiserer ikke myndighetstyrt barnebegrensing og det er en eksplosiv befolkningsøkning på det indiske kontinent og om noen få år vil India gå forbi Kina i befolkningstørrelse..

Men hvor det er muligheter for ultralyd og abort er det selektiv utvelging av jentefostre!!.

Tøft for ei jente å bli født og deretter å bli diskriminer og holdt nede.

Man bør ha dette i hodet re India/Kina.

Jan

Ps. Har reist på kryss og tvers i Kina og det er styggmye mennesker der og kineserne er virkelig arbeidsnarkomane som en rekke utenlandske bedrifter utnytter med billig arbeidskraft. Produksjonsavtalene gir Kina en bra andel av disse selskapenes fortjeneste og har du lyst å opprette bedrift i Kina er det fantastiske muligheter med et enormt indre marked og et globalt marked basert på kvalitet og pris.

Politikken har ført til enorm økonomisk vekst i urbane og industristrøk mens i utkanten og distriktene er det mye fattigdom.

Reiste i kanalsystemet og var innom små sidekanaler hvor folk bodde inntil kanalene med kloakk flytende i kanalene og tydelig fattigdom. Kjøpte noe der og alt var utrolig billig .Ikke rart med slik fattigdom.

Luksus og skyskrapere i Shanghai og Beijing.
Stort program for myndighetene og neste uke er det møte i Bejing om hvordan man utjevner dette.

Jan




[Endret 08.10.05 07:38 av dammerud]
[Endret 08.10.05 08:15 av dammerud]
[Endret 08.10.05 08:24 av dammerud]
falitt
08.10.2005 09:16
#9643

Endre
tea:
India er et viktig poeng. Veksten overasket siste kvartal og lå over 8%. India har vel passert Kina i folkemengde også ? Om ikke, så blir det ikke lenge til. India har langt høyere tilvekst.
Det mange ikke er klar over, er at disse folkerike landene i sterk vekst, har en eksplosiv økning i handelen seg imellom.
Denne egenhandelen øker i betydning og gir relativt stor vekst selv om eksporten til Europa og USA skulle stagnere.
gorwell
08.10.2005 22:24
#6890

Endre
Kina er større enn India og kommer til å være det, i alle fall i overskuelig fremtid. Sånn 20-50 år. Skal du pukke på det og det skal du sikkert, befolkningsmessig utgangspunkt 1300 vs 1000 mill mennesker med en tilvekst på 1% for Kina og 2% for India blir antallet individer det samme etter sånn 26 år.

Samhandelen dem imellom er liten men kommer nok til å ta seg opp, ikke minst når USA går i koma.

De siste to punktum er hva verden håper vil kunne skje. Håper.

gorwell
dammerud
16.10.2005 19:28
#10065

Endre
VIA teo [1479]
16.10.05 17:35

e 2005/10/14-shana

China's Demand For Oil Pressures Global Markets: S and P

Years of heated economic growth in China has strained the country's oil resources and triggered a hunt overseas for fresh supply which is expected to continue pressuring global oil markets for decades to come, ratings agency Standard and Poors said.
China's race for resources is also fraying international tempers and is one main driver of soaring oil prices, which for months now have hovered well above 60 dollars a barrel, the ratings agency said in a report.
"This expansion strategy is already helping rattle the global oil markets and straining international relations," it said.
"This is one of the reasons for higher energy prices, which are putting pressure on those companies that use large amounts of energy."

"Helping China to satiate its energy needs without sending the global markets into shock will require international cooperation, based on recognition of mutual interest," added analyst John Bailey.

By 2030 the International Energy Agency predicts that China's imports will soar to 10 million barrels per day, accounting for 80 percent of its energy demand.
A report last month by China's National Development and Reform Commission, China's top planning body, put the estimates even higher.

"In 2010 half of China's oil needs will come from imported oil, by 2020 up to 80 percent of China's oil needs will be dependent on imported oil," it said. Analysts also widely believe that if current prices were maintained it would easily knock off one percentage point of China's high flying economy that in the first half of the year rose by 9.5 percent.
OldNick
29.11.2005 02:16
#3054

Endre
China not manipulating currency: U.S.
Monday, November 28, 2005

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration on Monday determined that China was not manipulating its currency to gain economic advantages but still pressed the Chinese to move more quickly to allow the yuan's value to be set by market forces.

The administration's determination, made in a currency report it is required to submit to Congress every six months, was certain to disappoint critics who contend that Chinese currency practices play a large role in America's soaring trade deficits.

Treasury Secretary John Snow said China's decision to allow a small revaluation of its currency last July had been a factor in deciding not to brand China a currency manipulator, but he said more must be done.

Les mer her
gorwell
29.11.2005 02:37
#7214

Endre
Det hjelper å kjøpe et Boeing eller 50.....

gorwell
OldNick
23.12.2005 08:25
#3164

Endre
Beijing plans curbs on metals industry

China will rein in uncontrolled growth of the metals industry and slow energy demand by halting investment in new aluminum projects and small copper smelters.

Thursday, December 22, 2005


China will rein in uncontrolled growth of the metals industry and slow energy demand by halting investment in new aluminum projects and small copper smelters.
The government will also veto investment in new mines and smelters for tungsten, molybdenum, tin, antimony and so-called rare earths, its top planning agency said Wednesday. The ban still allows spending to modernize smelters and reduce pollution, the National Development and Reform Commission said.

Premier Wen Jiabao is trying to cool excessive investment in aluminum, steel and other industries, which has driven up raw material prices, increased pollution and spurred inflation in the world's fastest-growing major economy. China makes a third of the world's steel and is the biggest producer of aluminum.

"After the rapid expansion of aluminum capacity in the past two years, the state now wants to curb investment in copper," said Ren Yunhe, copper analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Research and Consulting in Shanghai.

The mainland's spending on factories, roads and other fixed assets rose 29 percent in November, the fastest pace this year, suggesting Wen's efforts to slow investment may not be having the desired effect so far.

"Irrational investment since 2003 has resulted in excessive capacity," Liu Zhi, industrial policy director with the commission, said in Beijing. China's economy, Asia's second-largest, may be 17 percent larger and growing even faster than previous estimates, according to a government report Tuesday. The economy expanded by more than 9 percent in the past nine quarters. The measures outlined Wednesday are regulations intended to guide development of the economy. The classification of industries as to whether they should be "encouraged," "restricted" or "eliminated" will be revised every year. Industries that have caused environmental damage or have been wasteful with energy, such as power generators smaller than 50,000 kilowatts and oil refining units smaller than one million tonnes, will be shut down in the coming year.

By 2010, the mainland wants to have two major steelmakers each with a capacity of more than 30 million tonnes a year and a few producers of 10 million tonnes per year each. The measures specified that no investment would be allowed in new copper smelters with a capacity of less than 100,000 tonnes a year.

China currently has 18 copper smelting projects, planned or being built, which will raise capacity to 3.7 million tonnes by the end of 2007 from 1.6 million tonnes in 2004, the commission said in October. The nation's investment in copper smelting almost doubled in 2004, it said.

Aluminum output capacity will reach 10.3 million tonnes this year, and exceed demand by 2.6 million tonnes, according to Liu.

The metals and mining industries will account for about 15 percent of the country's estimated coal demand of 2.15 billion tonnes this year, according to the China Economic Information Network, an affiliate of the commission.

Still, the government will encourage exploration and development of mines for resources such as copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and nickel, it said. Loans and tax breaks will be available.

For the steel industry, rising output has spurred record prices for iron ore and coal this year, and falling prices for steel. . From next year, China will start closing steel blast furnaces of less than 300 cubic meters and steelmaking converters and electric arc furnaces less than 20 tonnes, he said.

The mainland's steel production capacity has risen 12 percent this year to 470 million tonnes and 150 million tonnes more are either planned or being built. That compares with steel consumption this year of about 300 million tonnes. BLOOMBERG


[Endret 23.12.05 08:26 av OldNick]
OldNick
23.12.2005 08:26
#3165

Endre
China PBOC Official Upgrades 2005 GDP Growth Estimate To 9.4%

22:27 EST Thursday, Dec 22, 2005

BEIJING -(Dow Jones)- China's central bank's research bureau Friday raised its gross domestic product growth estimate for this year to 9.4% from 9.2%.

The bureau cut its consumer price index forecast for 2005 to 1.8% from 2%, according to a report by Tang Xu, the director of the research bureau, published in the central bank-backed Financial News.

The previous forecast issued by the bureau was in late September.

Expectations for the yuan to rise have eased, as shown by the fact that the one-year forward exchange rate against the dollar has stabilized since Nov. 11th, said the report.

China's GDP is expected to grow 8.8% and CPI is expected to rise 2.0% in 2006, it said.

China's GDP is expected to grow 9% in the fourth quarter of this year, and CPI is expected to rise 1.3% in the same period, according to the report.

The report also summarized the factors that will have an influence on prices next year.

High international oil prices and a rebound in investment would put pressure on prices to rise. Utilities and resources prices have the potential to rise next year, which would be an important factor in pushing the CPI up, it said.

Changes to the pricing system for resources, such as oil, electricity, water, natural gas and coal, will push prices higher next year, said the report. China reformed the pricing system this year, which involves a gradual loosening of government control over resources prices to allow more market influence.

But a decline in prices in sectors with overcapacity problems, including cement, iron and steel, and uncertainty over grain prices, could push prices lower, it said.

The figures given in the research bureau's quarterly report, which is based on economic models, are based on assumptions that the world economy will expand at 4.3% next year, that China's fiscal expenditure will grow by 13% and that interest rates will remain at current levels.

But for the first time, the report didn't include as one of these assumptions that the foreign exchange rate will remain at the current level, suggesting that the forecasts were made taking into account possible fluctuations in the yuan exchange rate.

It is the first time this year that the bureau has given a forecast for next year's GDP and CPI.

Thursday, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist at the National Bureau of Statistics, said China's GDP is expected to rise around 9.4% for full-year 2005, and 8%-9% next year.

Yao said the forecasts don't take into account the results of the recent nationwide census.

Tuesday, China raised its 2004 GDP output by 16.8% to CNY15.988 trillion from CNY13.688 trillion, based on data collected in the census.

Li Qiang, chief statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics and spokesman for the State Council's Economic Census Office, said the revised GDP growth for 2004 won't exceed 10%. GDP growth for 2004 had previously been stated as 9.5%.

The research report issued Friday didn't say whether it takes into account the results of the census. The report doesn't represent the central bank's opinion, the bureau said.

-Zheng Xiaolu contributed to this story, Dow Jones Newswires; 8610 6588-5848; tracy.zheng@dowjones.com
-Edited by David Riordan
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-22-05 1948ET
OldNick
01.03.2006 10:07
#3330

Endre
China reports big energy discoveries

Feb 28, 2006, interfax.com

Beijing. February 28. INTERFAX-CHINA - China's energy reserves have grown with the new discoveries of 943 mln tons of oil, 526.3 bln cu m of natural gas and 69.8 bln tons of coal, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in the 2005 Economic Development Statistical Report released on Tuesday.

Total energy consumption rose 9.5% to 2.22 bln tons of coal equivalent in 2005. The biggest rises were seen in natural gas, up 20.6% to 50 bln cu m, hydroelectricity, up 13.4% to 401.0 bln kWh, and coal consumption, up 10.6% to 2.14 bln tons, the report said.

Crude oil consumption rose 2.1% to reach 300 mln tons in 2005. Mine safety improved, with the death rate down 8.7% to 2.81 deaths for every mln tons of coal mined.

The energy consumption-GDP ratio was unchanged from last year, at 1.43 tons of coal equivalent per RMB 10,000 (USD 1,240) of GDP.

Energy consumption in 2005

……………………..Consumption……Growth yoy….Consumption in coal eq…..Distrib

Coal………………...2.14 bln tons…….….10.6%.........2164 mill metric tonnes…..77.1%
Oil……………….…..300 mln tons…….…..2.1%...........437 mill metric tonnes…..15.6%
Natural Gas……….....50 bln cu m..……..20.6%............61 mill metric tonnes…...2.2%
Hydro electric…….401.0 bln kWh……….13.4%...........128 mill metric tonnes…...4.6%
Nuclear………….….52.3 bln kWh………...3.7%.............17 mill metric tonnes…...0.6%

Source: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)

……

Noen kommentarer og analyse:

Dimensjonen “tons” skal leses “long tons”, hvis nyhetsbyrået brukes internasjonal standard. 1 long ton = 1016 kg. Denne omregningsfaktoren er brukt over i min beregnede ”consumption in coal eq.”, hvor forbruket er omregnet etter energi-innhold i de ulike energikildene. Disse omregningsfaktorene er tatt fra World Energy Council.

For omregning fra produsert kWh i vann- og kjernekraft anlegg til eq. tonn kull i varmekraftverk, har jeg brukt 38.5 % utbytte (av forbrenningsvarmen i kull).

Sum ”tons” forbruk i coal eq. 2005 = 2807 mill metric tonnes = 2762 mill long tons. Det er langt mer enn referert i artikkelen, ca. 2220 mill tons.

Dette kan sees på 2 måter: Enten er forbrukstallet for kull for høyt, eller totalforbruk i kull-ekv. for høyt. Hvis det siste er tilfelle, ville det innebære at kullforbruket ble 1600 mill tons (istedet for 2140 mill tons). Tallene nedenfor indikerer at totals forbruk (i ”coal eq.”) angitt over i artikkelen er feil

Ser at dødsstatistikken er 2.81 pr. 1 mill tons, dvs. total antall blir da ca. 2.81 x 2140 = ca. 6000 i 2005. Relativt høy menneskelig kostnad ved å bryte kull i Kina altså.

BP World Energy 2005 har produsert statistikk frem til og med 2004 (pr. idag, neste oppdatering ventes i juni). Den er vist nedenfor, sammen med estimat fra tabellen over, brukt vekst-% for tilbake kalkulering.

Energy consumption (estimated) in 2004

……………………..Consumption (NBS)..…………Consumption (BP)

Coal………………...1966 mill metric tonnes.………1891 mill metric tonnes
Oil…………………....299 mill metric tonnes…….….309 mill metric tonnes
Natural Gas..……....41.5 bln cu m…………………....39 bln cu m
Hydro electric……….354 bln kWh…………………...328 bln kWh
Nuclear……………..50.4 bln kWh………...............50.1 bln kWh


Som vist, stemmer tallene relativt dårlig overens (bortsett fra nuclear).

Oljeforbruket i 2005 ble tidligere i januar oppgitt av ”National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)”, til ca. 313 mill. metric tonnes (ref. OldNick [3197]). De oppgav også at oljeforbruket utgjorde ca. 22 % av energiforbruket i Kina, hvilket ikke stemmer med fordelingen beregnet over.

Strømproduksjon fra kjernekraft viser at noe nytt anlegg ikke er satt i drift i løpet av 2005. De har tidligere vist til planer om å bygge 2-3 anlegg av størrelse ca. 1 GW pr. år. Ang. vannkraft, så driver de vel og kjører i gang ”3 gorges”, som er oppgitt å skulle gi 19.3 GW ved full utnyttelse, fra endelig ferdigstillelse planlagt i 2009. Det skulle bidra med ca. 25-30% økning fra dagens vannkraft-nivå. Muligens er den store økningen fra 2004 en del av dette prosjektet, som allerede har startet å produsere kraft.

Reserve-økningene oppgitt over virker helt meningsløse, da de har en erstatningsrate på flere-100 % for alle kategorier kilder. De følger nok ikke vestlige standarder for rapportering.

Man ser at Kina’s energi-forbruk domineres totalt av kull. De har ikke oppgitt noen reservetall her, kun nye tilleggsreserver på 70 mrd. tonn (>30 års forbruk med dagens rate). BP angir 114.5 mrd. tonn (ca. 62 anthracite, ca. 52 lignite), så +70 til er ganske meningsløst. (Det tilsvarer også ca. 8% økning i worldwide reserver)

Også økningen i oljereserver er formidabel. 943 mill. tonn = 5.9 mrd. fat. BP angir Kina’s reserver pr. 2004 til ca. 17, dette utgjør da en økning på ca. 35%.

MEN, økningen i energiforbruk holder tritt med økningen i GDP, som også er oppgitt til ca. 9.4% tidligere i januar. Økningen faller hovedsakelig på kull, da de har klart å bremse økningen i oljeforbruket, som jo var >15% i fra 2003 til 2004.



[Endret 01.03.06 10:32 av OldNick]
mororo
01.03.2006 10:30
#2

Endre
Hvilke fond vil dere kina-eksperter anbefale? Blir knall langsiktig
dow
01.03.2006 10:35
#9106

Endre
Tysklands innenriks økonomi er og har vært helt ræva men DAX indexen har vært en av de beste de siste 3 årene. Samtidig falt og falt aksjeindexene i Kina til i fjor sommer da det ser ut som at det bunnet ut. Selskapene i dag er så internasjonale at det ikke spiller stor rolle hvor de er notert men hvilke markeder de er representert i.
OldNick
20.03.2006 08:04
#3409

Endre
2.6 mrd. tonn/år ! Det var 1/2-parten av verdensforbruket for 4-5 år siden.


Official: China to Boost Coal Output

© 2006 The Associated Press
Mar 18, 2006

BEIJING — China plans to boost coal output by up to 18 percent before 2010 to meet soaring energy needs despite environmental concerns, a government newspaper quoted an industry official as saying.

Annual coal production is projected to reach as much as a record 2.6 billion tons in 2010, up from 2.19 billion tons last year, Guo Yuntao, director of the China Development Research Center for the Coal Industry, told the China Daily newspaper.

That growth rate is much slower than in recent years, when output rose by nearly 70 percent in 2000-2005, Guo said in comments published by the newspaper on Saturday.

The latest forecast is based on projections that government efforts to improve energy efficiency will succeed, the report said.

The government has been trying to encourage use of nontraditional energy sources such as windmills and nuclear power in an effort to clean up the environment and reduce reliance on imported oil.

But coal accounted for 76 percent China's energy needs in 2005, and that proportion could rise to 80 percent after 2010, Guo said.

China's energy consumption per unit of economic output was the same in 2005 as in the previous year, despite pledges to improve efficiency, the China Daily report said.



[Endret 20.03.06 08:04 av OldNick]
dow
21.03.2006 17:07
#9329

Endre
SHANGHAI (AFP) - Signs of a sharp downturn are emerging in Shanghai's once-sizzling property market with prices slumping more than 30 percent for some apartments and increasing reports of mortgage defaults.
OldNick
22.03.2006 14:49
#3423

Endre
Diesel rationing sparks panic in China

From Jane Macartney in Beijing, TimesOnline.co.uk
Mar 21, 2006

TWO of China’s biggest oil suppliers have begun to ration diesel, triggering lorry queues at petrol stations across two of the country’s most prosperous provinces. Such was the demand that the state-run oil giants Sinopec and PetroChina set a limit on customers of 25 to 50 litres a visit.
The rationing appears to be restricted to the southeastern provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu, two of the most dynamic regional economies in the world’s second-largest oil consumer. One driver at a petrol station in Zhejiang was astonished at the queues: There are no shortages in neighbouring Fujian province, he said.



Speculation has been building for weeks that the Chinese Government was ready to allow an increase in petrol and diesel prices and the public reaction was swift as news, and rumours, of the rationing spread across Zhejiang.

Some pumps in the province are reported to have run dry. The owner of a private transport firm in the eastern Zhejiang port city of Ningbo said: “Our drivers are stranded here because both the Sinopec and PetroChina petrol stations next door told us they ran out of diesel.”

However, this latest bout of rationing has been less serious than a supply crunch last summer that hit most eastern and southern regions in the country for about two weeks. An official with Sinopec in the Jiangsu provincial capital of Nanjing said: “What’s different this time is that stockpiling, not supply shortage, is the cause of queueing and rationing.”

The squeeze last August was led by a surge in fuel exports. State refiners boosted overseas sales to rescue slumping domestic margins caused by the Government’s cap on pump prices.

The Sinopec official said that the company was better prepared this time: “Stocks are below normal, but we still have oil to supply.” He said the company’s inventories could last another five days, against a typical stock of seven to ten days.

Speculation has grown this month that Beijing will announce a retail price rise in petrol within days, now that the annual session of the National People’s Congress, the parliament, has ended. China avoids policy changes during parliament — to reassure its 1.3 billion people that the Government is moving smoothly to ensure a better standard of living.

A price increase would be the first since last July, when prices were raised about 15 per cent — while crude prices had increased more than 30 per cent. China has kept a lid on price increases, fearing inflation and possible social unrest. The diesel price is particularly sensitive because it accounts for one third of all Chinese oil demand. It is the main fuel used by farmers, who have gained least from economic reform, and who are most vulnerable to sudden price swings.

Les mer her
OldNick
28.03.2006 03:36
#3453

Endre
China predicts gradual slowing of economic growth

Reuters, The Associated Press
TUESDAY, MARCH 28, 2006

SHANGHAI China's economy is expected to grow 8.9 percent in 2006, slowing from 9.9 percent last year, the central bank's research department said in a report published Monday.

Annual growth in China's gross domestic product will gradually slow to 9 percent in the second quarter, 8.9 percent in the third and 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter from 9.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, said the report, carried by The China Securities Journal.

The estimates pointed to a slowdown from last quarter, when gross domestic product was up 9.9 percent from a year earlier, although China has repeatedly, and wrongly, projected milder economic growth for several years now.

The central bank did not say why economic growth would slow. Its report focused on inflation.

The consumer price index, China's main gauge of inflation, is expected to be up about 2 percent this year, it said. The index climbed 1.8 percent in 2005.

"In general, our country's GDP growth will gradually trend lower in future but will still maintain a high level," the bank said. "We also see no major fluctuations for consumer prices in future."

Changes to natural resource prices, expected to be rolled out and extended to public utilities this year, would raise the consumer price index by 0.7 percentage point and the producer price index by 1.27 percentage points, it said. Commodity prices would be relatively stable.

China's economy expanded by 10.1 percent in 2004, but growth has been gradually slowing as the government attempted to rein in excess investment in real estate projects and some industries, like steel and cement.

The government's five-year-plan, setting policy through 2010, calls for bringing economic growth down to 7.5 percent a year, with 2006 growth at 8 percent.
OldNick
04.04.2006 19:55
#3494

Endre
Oil giant discovers China's biggest natural gas field

chinaview.cn 2006-04-03 18:56:38

BEIJING, April 3 (Xinhua) -- Oil giant Sinopec Corporation has discovered China's biggest ever natural gas field with proven deposits of 251 billion cubic meters in the southwestern Sichuan Province.

Sinopec said in its annual report released Monday that it has submitted a plan to authorities for the development of the Puguang natural gas field in northeast Sichuan.

The plan proposes commercial production from 2008 with an annual production of 4 billion cubic meters, which could double by 2010.

Sinopec plans to build a pipeline to supply natural gas from Puguang to Jinan, capital of Shandong Province in East China.

Prior to Puguang, China only had four natural gas fields with deposits exceeding 200 billion cubic meters each, the report says.

......

(Kommentar: For å sammenligne, Snøhvit er ca. 190 mrd. Sm3, Shtockman ca. 3300 mrd. Sm3, South Pars ca. 8-14000 mrd. Sm3)
grong2
24.04.2006 20:59
#186

Endre
Hedge funds make big bets on China boom
Greater China hedge funds are growing in both popularity and assets as managers profit from the region's growth.
By Amanda Cantrell, CNNMoney.com staff writer
April 24, 2006: 1:31 PM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - U.S.-China trade relations may be fraught with controversy thanks to a large trade deficit, the outsourcing of jobs and concerns about human rights abuses in the country.

But China's economic growth has inevitably whipped up investor interest as well, with hedge funds leading the charge.


MORE HEDGE FUND NEWS
Hedge funds post best 1st quarter in 3 years
Improved returns draw in a solid $24 billion as investors poured more money into the hot sector. (more)
Hanging onto Harvard's $25.9 billion stash
Emerging-markets whiz Mohamed El-Erian takes over the world's biggest endowment fund -- can he match the performance of near-legendary, now-ousted Jack Meyer? (more)
U.S. millionaire count hits record
New report finds households with a net worth of $1M or more rises 11 percent, while those with $5 million or more soars 26 percent. (more)


Some investors, concerned about corruption and a lack of regulatory oversight, are fearful of diving directly into the growing Chinese stock market.

But hedge funds, which are private investment pools for wealthy individuals and institutional investors, began setting up shop in the region years ago, attracted by the area's high return potential. These funds seek to profit from market inefficiencies, which are becoming harder to find in highly liquid and efficient markets such as those in the U.S. and Europe.

These funds may require greater risk tolerance than their U.S. counterparts do, but the returns can be worth it. China-based hedge funds gained 16.8 percent through March of this year, according to publishing and research firm Hedge Fund Intelligence (HFI).

Estimates for the U.S. hedge fund market range from $1.2 to $1.5 trillion, but assets in Asia-Pacific hedge funds now account for $115 billion, according to HFI. Assets in Hong Kong-based hedge funds have jumped from $1.8 billion in 2000 to $15.9 billion in 2005.

Hedge fund interest climbs as markets rise
Sandra Manzke, a hedge fund industry veteran who last year founded Maxam Capital, which runs investment products that are based on indexes of hedge funds, said that as the Chinese government continues to broaden its financial markets to foreign investors, hedge fund interest in the region has climbed.

"We really are becoming a more global economy," she said. "You'll start seeing a lot more interest in China as they move into allowing more foreign ownership."

China's markets can be daunting to new investors, with its multiple share classes and markets scattered across different parts of China. But it has become a more rewarding investment this year, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index climbing 22 percent for the year to date.

Investors still cannot short the stocks of companies based in mainland China, but hedge fund managers have gotten around this by making long investments in mainland China companies and shorting Hong Kong and Taiwan-based companies, because shorting is legal in those markets.

Many hedge fund managers invest in a "greater China" basket of stocks, in addition to commodities. That means they buy stocks listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen indexes as well as Taiwan and Hong Kong-listed stocks.

Buying commodities such as metals is one way hedge funds play the China boom, because China is one of the fastest growing users of commodities, according to Jim Melcher, founder of New York-based hedge fund firm Balestra Capital.

Manzke has long been attracted to Asia because its markets have continued to offer potential for high returns while at the same time becoming more sophisticated – for example, managers in Japan can now short stocks.

She recently launched an index product that is comprised of Asian funds. Manzke notes that China-based funds are on the rise – not just in Hong Kong, which boasts highly regulated and well-established markets, but on mainland China as well.

Shanghai-based funds on the rise
Manzke said there are currently eight hedge funds based in Shanghai, running a total of $406 million. She expects that market will grow as long as the Chinese stock market continues to outperform.

One of those Shanghai-based hedge funds is managed by Martin Currie, an Edinburgh, Scotland-based money management firm with $21.3 billion in assets.

Martin Currie's China hedge fund invests in greater China and focuses on small and mid-sized companies in which the management has a stake in the company, according to Allan MacLeod, head of sales for the firm.

MacLeod notes that the fund, which has holdings in Hong Kong and Taiwan, is up about 35 percent for the year to date.

Seven of the fund's 10 staff members are based in Shanghai, including Chris Ruffle, the lead portfolio manager for the firm's China funds, who is fluent in Mandarin. MacLeod said that conducting due diligence on an investment in China is different than conducting due diligence on more mature equity markets such as the U.S. and European markets.

"The markets are less well researched than other markets, so we have a very heavy emphasis on company visits," he said. "You need to know what to look for, and you need to know your way around Chinese accounting. Experience is extremely important."

Corruption keeps some managers away
Maxam Capital's Manzke said another important part of the due diligence process is getting to know which brokers, administrators and other entities that service hedge funds are reliable – especially important in light of the recent fraud at the U.S. hedge fund Bayou Group, which formed a fake entity to audit its own books.

"You have to do a lot more due diligence on the service providers," she said of investing in Asian hedge funds. "You want a recognizable, big name accounting firm
grong2
24.04.2006 20:59
#187

Endre
.


[Endret 24.04.06 20:59 av grong2]
Herr Blom
24.04.2006 22:49
#46

Endre
Mororo m.fl.
"There are nine million bicycles in Beijing..." het en sang
en gang.
Tenk når alle der, og i andre folkerike områder av Østen skal bytte ut tohjulsballongdekka med BILER!!!!!
Da blir det fett med oljeaksjer generelt.

Norges Kommende OljeAksjeMoguler
Vi skal drite penger Vi.....
OldNick
10.05.2006 07:47
#3651

Endre
Herr Blom!

Tilgangen på tomskaller er ubegrenset. "Gammelt jungelord"


Fears for environment as China plans 48 new airports

Jonathan Watts in Beijing, Guardian.co.uk
May 10, 2006

China plans to build 48 new airports over the next five years in an aviation spending splurge that will delight architects and plane makers but heighten concerns among environmentalists.

With the economy booming, hundreds of millions more journeys are being made by air every year, prompting a rush to buy planes that has made China the most important customer for Boeing and Airbus. But the boom is also set to benefit international design firms and construction companies, including British names such as Norman Foster and Arup.

According to the domestic media, China will spend 140bn yuan (£9.4bn) on airport development between 2006 and 2010 - more than the total for the previous 15 years. Zhao Hongyuan, of the Civil Aviation Administration of China, told the China Daily that the number of airports would rise in that time from 142 to 190. Work is already under way to expand the three biggest international hubs: Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Last year a mega-terminal opened in Guangzhou, part of work to double capacity to 27 million passengers by 2009. A second runway opened last year at Pudong airport, near Shanghai, which can handle 35 million passengers a year. And the terminal building under construction at Beijing Capital international airport, designed by Norman Foster, is expected to be the world's biggest airport building.

Even after the new facilities are built the country's 1.3 billion people will be served by fewer than 200 airports, compared with more than 10,000 in the US, which has a quarter of the population. To expand services to less developed areas the government plans to turn airports in Chengdu, Kunming, Xi'an, Wuhan and Shenyang into regional hubs. Yunnan - one of the most beautiful provinces in China - is hoping to cash in on an expected tourism boom by building five new airports, Xinhua news agency reported.

In February China made itself the darling of the global aviation industry by promising to buy 100 planes and recruit 1,000 new pilots every year until 2010.

Les mer her


og - Kina vil ikke bare bygge opp strategiske energireserver, men også for en rekke andre råvarer også, såsom Cu og Uran.

Meget interessant, og vil være sterkt pris-støttende i mange år fremover. Her er tonnagene store, idet de er verdens største forbruker av en rekke metaller som Ni, Cu , Zn og Al (ca. 20-25% av totalt verdensforbruk).

China, Worried About Resources, To Build Up Its Mineral Reserves

By JAMES T. AREDDY. Online.wsj.com
May 10, 2006; Page A7

SHANGHAI, China -- China says it intends to build strategic reserves of minerals like copper and uranium, in addition to the energy stockpiles it already has said it will amass, in the latest sign of Beijing's concern about ensuring an adequate supply of natural resources.

The Ministry of Land and Resources said in its five-year plan that it will build up reserves over the next four years of uranium, copper, aluminum, manganese and other minerals that the country "urgently needs." The statement follows pledges by Beijing to begin filling four strategic reserves of crude oil as soon as this year.

The ministry didn't say how reserve levels might be managed with stockpiles of some of the same raw materials held by China's State Reserve Bureau, an agency within another government ministry that last year lost millions of dollars trading copper on global markets.

It also isn't clear whether the move will affect commodity prices.

......

The Land Resources ministry said it plans to have as many as 10 metal reserves with holdings of 20 million metric tons of copper and 200 million tons of bauxite, which is used to make aluminum. It also said it will have two or three backup stockpiles of oil containing 4.5 billion to five billion metric tons and a similar number of coal reserves with 100 billion tons of stock.

Although analysts said the numbers are high, wording of the ministry's plan suggests some of the reserves will be in proven -- or unmined rather than extracted -- form. The ministry also said it will allocate more money to finding resources while monitoring mining capacity more carefully.

If Beijing attempted to purchase outright the amounts suggested by the Land Resources ministry, "it would drive [prices of] the world's commodities out the roof," said Jim Lennon, an analyst at Macquarie Bank in London. He added, however, that China wants to secure access to these commodities rather than simply stockpile them.

......

[Komm: Tonnagene som her er nevnt er vanskelig å feste lit til.

F.eks. 4.5 mrd. tonn olje er > 1 årsforbruk world wide (ca 4.2 mrd. tonn/år). Tidligere har strat.lager på opptil 500 mill fat=ca. 70 mill. tonn vært nevnt. (USA har som kjent snaut 700 mill. fat strat.lager)

For Cu er årsforbruket ww ca. 18 mill. tonn, tilsvarende misforhold her. Kina bruker i år ca. 4.2 mill. tonn.

100 mrd. tonn kull er større enn deres offisielle reserver innenlands, og ww forbruk ca. 6 mrd. tpy, av disse bruker Kina selv ca. 2.2 mrd. tonn.

Noe problemer med tolken kanskje ??]



[Endret 10.05.06 07:47 av OldNick]
grong2
15.05.2006 22:27
#463

Endre
Investing in China no easy task

MarketWatch's upcoming survey of Investing in Asia provides a good opportunity to look closer at a few of the unique aspects of China's often-chaotic market and how investors can mitigate some of the inherent risks.

Link
OldNick
07.06.2006 04:42
#3698

Endre
Kontruksjonen av verdens største damprosjekt "Three Gorges" er ferdigstillt

Dam and blast as Three Gorges flood control starts

6 Jun 2006

BEIJING, June 6 (Reuters) - China blew up the last temporary wall protecting the Three Gorges Dam on Tuesday, using enough explosives to bring down 400 10-storey buildings, state media reported.

The 580-metre (1,900-ft) long, 140-metre high cofferdam connected to the southern bank of the Yangtze river was brought down in 12 seconds in a series of explosions using 191.3 tons of explosives planted beneath the water, Xinhua news agency said.

The blast sprayed nearly 190,000 cubic metres of concrete fragments into China's longest river, Xinhua said. Engineers declared the operation a complete success that would not trigger earthquakes.

"Blasting away the concrete cofferdam ... will spark off no severe geological disasters," Li Yong'an, general manager of China Yangtze River Three Gorges Development Corporation, was quoted as saying.

Removal of the cofferdam, a watertight chamber which allows building work under water, means the world's largest dam had effectively commenced flood control, Xinhua said, two years ahead of schedule.

Construction of the Three Gorges Dam -- the world's largest hydroelectricity project -- was completed last month after first breaking ground in 1997.

More than 100 people died during the $25 billion construction project, state media reported, and 1.3 million people have been or are still to be relocated.


men - samtidig har Kina et nytt, megaprosjekt på trappene, også dette i Yangtze, men 1500 km lenger oppe i elva. Omtrent samme størrelse: ca. 20 GW kapasitet.

China: Another dammed gorge

By Pallavi Aiyar
June 3, 2006

YUNNAN Province, China - Even as the main dam of the mammoth Three Gorges reservoir, the world's largest hydroelectric project, was completed in late May several months ahead of schedule, China is gearing up to launch another massive Yangtze River dam-building project.

Sandwiched between the towering majesty of the Jade Dragon and Haba Snow Mountains in the northwestern part of Yunnan province, "Tiger Leaping Gorge" is one of the world's deepest river gorges. Here about 1,500 kilometers upstream from the Three Gorges Dam, the Jinsha River (as the Yangtze is known in its upper reaches) thunders its way through the 18km-long gorge with, as yet, untamed power.

The gorge's evocative name is related to a legend according to which a tiger once leaped across the narrowest point of the ravine where it is a mere 30 meters wide. Elsewhere, the gorge is up to 80 meters in width, while the mountain peaks on either side reach more than 3,000 meters above the river.

......

A series of eight big dams on this part of the Yangtze are currently being considered, which when completed would flood some 13,300 hectares of prime farmland, including large parts of the gorge, and force the relocation of 100,000 people from the fertile river valley.

Yu Xiaogang, founder of Green Watershed and winner of the Goldman environmental award for 2006, said the formal announcement for the plan to construct a dam on the gorge was made in 2003. The project, which according to local officials will have the capacity to generate 20 million kilowatts of electricity once finished, is a joint venture between the provincial government of Yunnan and a subsidiary of the China Huaneng Group - one of the largest state-owned enterprises in the power sector.

Pre-project planning has been ongoing for the past few years, including geological surveys and the measuring of the homes and land of those that will need to be relocated. An environmental impact assessment (EIA) and social impact assessment (SIA), required by Chinese law for any large hydroelectric project, are being carried out.

The essential problem Yu points out is that all of this is being done in total secrecy. The SIA is supposed to involve the participation of people who will be affected by the dam. In reality none of the farmers who will be forced to move have been given any information regarding compensation or the scheduling for the dam.

......

The Tiger Leaping Gorge dam has, in fact, been listed as one of the country's major infrastructure projects for the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-10). Although final approval by the central government is still pending, Yu says this means there is a very strong likelihood that the project will go ahead.

In power-hungry China, this is not an uncommon story. According to the United Nations Environmental Program, China already has more than 85,000 dams, some 46% of the world's total. More than 20,000 of these are classified as "big". According to Chinese media reports, 16 million people across the country have already been displaced as a result of constructing large dams.

China's potential hydropower capacity is the biggest in the world. A recent government survey put the figure at about 700,000 megawatts, of which 400,000MW was deemed commercially viable. According to a one study, 16% of all electricity generation in China today comes from hydropower.

Les mer her
Magic
07.06.2006 09:27
#2249

Endre
fra imarkedet

Børsras i Kina
Shanghai-indeksen i Kina raste nesten 5 prosent på bekymringer om kannibalisme i forbindelse med nye børsnoteringer.



Nok en gang var det signalene fra den amerikanske sentralbanksjefen som tynget investorene i Asia.

- Ytterligere rentehevinger betyr at den amerikanske økonomien kan være i ferd med kjøles ned, noe som er negativt for de aksjene ved eksportrelaterte asiatiske børsene, sier forvalter Kim Hyun Tae i Landmark Investment Management i Seoul til Bloomberg News.

Bernanke sa i en tale tidligere i uken at økningen i inflasjonsindikatorer ikke er velkommen og at han vil sørge for at trenden ikke fortsetter. Det indikerer at banken trolig vil fortsette å heve styringsrenten. Markedet hadde håpet at det ville bli en pause i renteøkningen nå i juni.

Dermed frykter investorene i Asia at den amerikanske styringsrenten blir rammet av økende inflasjon. Høye lånekostnader i USA kan medføre lavere forbruk og ramme de eksportsensitive aksjene i Asia.

Den brede indeksen Morgan Stanley International Asia Pacific falt til en nye bunn på tre måneders basis. Indeksen var i morgentimene onsdag ned 1,8 prosent til 123,99 poeng og har ikke været lavere siden 8. mars.

I Japan falt Nikkei 225 1,9 prosent to 15.096,01 poeng, mens den mer brede indeksen Topix ble sendt ned hele 2,2 prosent.

Størst var fallet i Kina der Shanghai Composite-indeksen stupte 4,9 prosent. Dermed opplever indeksen det største fallet siden januar 2002. Bekymringen for at investorene kun skal konsentrere seg om de nye aksjene som kan noteres skal gå på bekostning av de eksisterende aksjene i markedet. Nylig ble det vedtatt at børsnoteringer igjen kan bli lovlig i Kina. Etter flere år med fullstans i nye børsnoteringer.
OldNick
12.06.2006 08:20
#3721

Endre
Lang artikkel i NYTimes om forurensingen fra Kina's vanvittige kullforbruk, verdens strste (selvsagt)...

The Energy Challenge
Pollution From Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow

By KEITH BRADSHER and DAVID BARBOZA, NYTimes.com
Published: June 11, 2006


Coal has given parts of China a Dickensian feel, with miners coated with black soot and air that is thick with pollution.

HANJING, China — One of China's lesser-known exports is a dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants.

In early April, a dense cloud of pollutants over Northern China sailed to nearby Seoul, sweeping along dust and desert sand before wafting across the Pacific. An American satellite spotted the cloud as it crossed the West Coast.

Unless China finds a way to clean up its coal plants and the thousands of factories that burn coal, pollution will soar both at home and abroad. The increase in global-warming gases from China's coal use will probably exceed that for all industrialized countries combined over the next 25 years, surpassing by five times the reduction in such emissions that the Kyoto Protocol seeks.

The sulfur dioxide produced in coal combustion poses an immediate threat to the health of China's citizens, contributing to about 400,000 premature deaths a year. It also causes acid rain that poisons lakes, rivers, forests and crops.

The sulfur pollution is so pervasive as to have an extraordinary side effect that is helping the rest of the world, but only temporarily: It actually slows global warming. The tiny, airborne particles deflect the sun's hot rays back into space.

But the cooling effect from sulfur is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will last for decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually overwhelm the cooling from sulfur and deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say. A warmer climate could lead to rising sea levels, the spread of tropical diseases in previously temperate climes, crop failures in some regions and the extinction of many plant and animal species, especially those in polar or alpine areas.

Coal is indeed China's double-edged sword — the new economy's black gold and the fragile environment's dark cloud.

Already, China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.

To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants — and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030.

Les mer her
dammerud
12.06.2006 08:54
#11872

Endre
Et innlegg på Cnn forteller at at selveste Kina er blitt et forbruksland.
Bedre personøkonomi fører til et internt kjøpepress og valg av kvalitet.

Re det med kull så har jeg kjørt på den store kanalsystemet hvor 10 000 vis av elvebåter lastet med kull dominerte trafikkbildet.


Kinaforum, en flott info link og portal på norsk om Kina..


[Endret 12.06.06 09:02 av dammerud]
OldNick
12.06.2006 18:51
#3725

Endre
Et resultat av sentralmyndighetenes forsøk på utjevning ?


China Begins Ambitious Rural Road Upgrading Program

2006-06-09, Xinhua

China has begun the implementation of an ambitious program that will see the building or upgrading of 1.2 million kilometers of rural highways before the end of 2010.

The country's top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said the central government would this year provide a subsidy of 17.5 billion yuan (2.2 billion U.S. dollars) for 28,008 rural roads totaling 119,200 kilometers.

These roads will cost a total of 45 billion yuan (5.6 billion dollars). They include 27,012 roads in east and central China and 996 in the west, the NDRC said on its website.

The upgrading of rural roads would help create favorable conditions for developing the rural economy, improving the living standards of rural residents and building the Socialist new countryside, said the NDRC.

The 11th five-year-plan adopted by the National People's Congress in March says all Chinese villages and townships will be accessible by highway by 2010.

Official statistics show that by the end of 2005, China had three million kilometers of rural roads, including 980,000 kilometers of sealed roads.

Currently 99.8 percent of China's townships and 94.3 percent of its villages are served by highways.


[Endret 12.06.06 18:53 av OldNick]
OldNick
15.06.2006 18:44
#3747

Endre
Er Kina på vei mot en virkelig overoppheting ?

Med de vekstratene som nå vises, og en eventuelle avmating i deres viktigste markeder, så har de vel ikke innenlandsk konsum til å ta unna for produksjonskapasiteten ?

China Steps Up Efforts to Cool Investment Expansion (Update6)

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- China's government stepped up efforts to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy as a report showed investment in manufacturing and real estate unexpectedly accelerated.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he'll curb money supply, a day after Premier Wen Jiabao told local governments and banks to limit lending. Urban investment in fixed assets jumped 30.3 percent in the first five months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today.

``The risks to the economy are from the investment boom turning to bust,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics in London. ``The best way to avoid a hard landing in 2007 or 2008 is to start deflating that investment bubble now.''

China is producing more manufactured goods than markets require, causing profits to slump in some industries and threatening to cause an abrupt slowdown in the economy, according to the World Bank. Growth averaged 9 percent in the past decade as companies including Ford Motor Co. and Baosteel Group Corp. built factories, straining supplies of raw materials and energy.

The central bank will ``step up open market operations,'' including selling more bills to banks, to adjust money in the financial system, Zhou said at a conference in Beijing today. On June 13, the People's Bank of China convened a meeting of the nation's commercial banks to enforce curbs on lending, the bank said on its Web site yesterday.

Les mer her
grong2
16.06.2006 10:26
#742

Endre
Med 9,4 prosent i gjennomsnittlig årlig vekst i kinesisk økonomi de siste 25 årene, kan man glede seg over en nær ti-dobling av produksjonen i denne perioden.

Om lag en tredjedel av denne veksten skyldes bedre utnyttelse av gitte ressurser, såkalt TFP-vekst (for Total Factor Productivity). Resten av veksten skyldes økt tilgang på arbeidskraft og kapital.

Men veksten har ikke kommet gratis. Her er to kostnader som begge vekker dyp bekymring i det kinesiske lederskapet:

Inntektsfordeling er blitt så skjev at den truer stabiliteten i samfunnet
Forurensningen har fått et omfang som truer naturens bærekraft

Link
OldNick
17.06.2006 04:47
#3752

Endre
Shenhua, Kina's største kullgruveselskap, satser hard på CTL.

Shenhua Group Has 8 CTL Projects in Pipeline; Targeting 30M Tons per Year by 2020

16 June 2006

Shenhua’s first direct coal liquefaction train is due to come online in 2007.

China Daily. Shenhua Group. China’s biggest coal producer (and the third-largest in the world) is planning eight Coal-to-Liquids projects that will produce some 30 million tons per year (about 600,000 barrels per day) of synthetic oil and products by 2020.

The first three of the eight projects will have a total capacity of 4 million tons per year, and are due to be completed by 2010. The eight plants will be built in Shaanxi, and the autonomous regions of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang Uygur and Ningxia Hui. Shenhua is building both direct and indirect liquefaction projects.

The State-owned energy conglomerate is partnering with international companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell and Sasol on technology transfers.

“We have almost finalized talks with South Africa and will possibly sign a deal with them sometime next week,” Zhang [Yuzhuo] said, declining to give details of the accord.

China is forecasting that its oil consumption will increase to about 450 million tons (about 9 million barrels per day) by 2020—with 60–62% of that imported. Of that increase, China projects using 216 million tons of gasoline and diesel (about 4.7 million barrels per day) by 2020.

In 2005, China consumed 6.988 million barrels of oil per day, according to BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
mar
17.06.2006 15:41
#1404

Endre
Blikket blir nok flyttet hit og bort fra USA lagertall og annet.
Utmothavet
17.06.2006 20:42
#7077

Endre
grong2 [742]
Sitter nå igjen på hotellet i en by like utenfor Shanghai - i dette landet som endres i rekord fart.
Foruresning og intektsfordeling er et par problem områder. Først nevnte kan hindre sist nevnte - og da kan et opprør komme fra bøndene (som en gang tidligere). Det er ikke noen overhengede fare, - men Mao kom vel til makten med et slikt opprør.

Det som skremmer mest og kan skape vansker, - er økning av privat biler (ikke frma og stats eide). Infrastrukturen kan slå sprekker allerede i 2007, - med økende trafikk av varer til eksport havner - og masse "ny rike" som skal vise sin status med egen bil. Det bygges veier med stor hastighet, - men ny bil salget er nok større !!!!
grong2
19.06.2006 09:23
#747

Endre
Utmothavet - jeg skal straks til bl.a. Kina selv. Har du noen tips for særlige interessante ting å fokusere på der? Send gjerne en privat melding.

grong2
19.06.2006 09:24
#748

Endre
Even if you've never been to India, eaten its food or watched its movies, there is a good chance you interact with it every day of your life.

That's because India -- the second most populous nation in the world, and projected to be by 2015 the most populous -- is itself being transformed. In the tradition of writers citing Asia's "tiger" economies and the Chinese "dragon," now comes the elephant.

Last year per capita income in India was $3,300; in China it was $6,800. Prosperity and progress haven't touched many of the nearly 650,000 villages where more than two-thirds of India's population lives.

Backbreaking, empty-stomach poverty, which China has been tackling successfully for decades, is still all too common in India. Education for women -- the key driver of China's rise to become the workshop of the world -- lags terribly in India.

The nation has more people with HIV/AIDS than any other in the world, but until recently the Indian government was in a disgraceful state of denial about the epidemic. Transportation networks and electrical grids, which are crucial to industrial development and job creation, are so dilapidated that it will take many years to modernize them.

Yet the litany of India's comparative shortcomings omits a fundamental truth: China started first. China's key economic reforms took shape in the late 1970s, India's not until the early 1990s.

But India is younger and freer than China. Many of its companies are already innovative world beaters. India is playing catch-up, for sure, but it has the skills, the people and the sort of hustle and dynamism that Americans respect, to do so. It deserves the new notice it has got in the U.S.

Link
skipper*
19.06.2006 09:28
#2957

Endre

Utmothavet

Hva i fanden gjør du i China dersom du ser slike store vanskeligheter ?????
Da bør du holde deg med steinrøyse !
Var selv i China i 1967og 1975 da MAO var hersker , tror aldri det chinesiske folk ønsker seg tilbake til den tiden...

lanse
20.06.2006 04:25
#7936

Endre
cimg src=http://pub.tv2.no/multimedia/na/archive/00253/ol__nedtelling_253358c.jpg>

lanse
lanse
20.06.2006 04:25
#7937

Endre


lanse
OldNick
30.06.2006 16:35
#3836

Endre
Kina sliter med å nå sine ambisiøse mål om å redusere energiintensiteten med 20% innen 2010.

Helt utrolig vekst i kull- og oljeforbruket fortsatt. Mye CO2 og annen forurensing dette.

China struggling to reduce energy consumption

June 30, 2006, english.people.com.cn (Source: Xinhua)

China will be struggling to meet targets for reducing energy consumption unless it takes serious measures to change its economic growth patterns,experts said.

While China's GDP growth continues at around 10 percent this year, the country is striving to reduce its energy consumption.

The aim is to reduce energy consumption by 20 percent for every 10,000yuan (1,250 US dollars) of GDP between 2006 and 2010.

However, considering the current economic situation, the goal of reducing energy consumption by four percent this year does not look like being reached easily unless China makes great changes in its macro-economic policy," said Zhou Dadi, Director General of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.

China saw sharp growth in energy consumption this year. According to statistics, in the first four months, China's coal consumption rose by 13.8 percent over the same period of last year, coke, 11 percent and electricity, 12.5 percent.

China produced 60.55 million tons of crude oil in the first four months with a year-on-year growth of 1.9 percent while its imports of crude oil rose by 17.3 percent to 49.15 million tons.

China's energy consumption is increasing due to two factors, said Zhou.

According to Zhou, the Chinese economy will continue its high-speed growth inherited from the five-year period from 2001 to 2005 and this will not cool down in the short term.

Heavy industrial sectors such as metallurgy, chemicals and building materials continue to grow rapidly. Investment is still hot and economic growth is still the index local governments place the most importance on, he said.

On the other hand, the goal of reducing energy consumption requires fundamental changes in China's energy consumption methods, he said.

China's energy problems cannot be solved independently and it is a matter of the macro economy of the country, said Tao Dong, economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

It depends on changes in China's economic growth mode, said Zhou.

Five industrial sectors - iron and steel, chemicals, building materials, oil and coke refining and electricity and heat generation - use over half of the country's total energy consumption.

Experts agree that the first step should be pricing reform.

Les mer her
OldNick
05.07.2006 11:33
#3869

Endre
Mer om bil salg statistikk i Kina, første halvår 2006.

GM: 453852 / 12.5% = ca. 3.6 mill. biler solgt Jan-Juni i år. Jepp, salget øker utrolig.

GM sales in China surge 47 per cent in first half; VW sales up 30 per cent

July 4, 2006 - 11:55

By: ELAINE KURTENBACH

SHANGHAI (AP) - Despite its woes in the U.S. auto market, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) reports business in China is booming.

The world's largest automaker said Tuesday its sales in China during the first half of this year jumped 47 per cent over a year earlier, helped by stronger than expected demand.

GM and its joint ventures sold 453,832 vehicles in China in the January-June period, compared with 308,722 in the same period of 2005, the company stated.

GM claims a 12.5 per cent share of China's quickly growing auto market, up from 10.8 per cent a year earlier, making it the No. 1 foreign automaker in the country.

Last year, its sales in China surpassed those of longtime leader Volkswagen AG of Germany, which also reported strong sales growth in the first half.

Beset by declining profits and growing competition back home, General Motors has sought to cash in on a rebound in auto sales in China by rolling out new and upgraded models under several brand names.

Sales of the Buick Excelle sedan climbed 38.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half to 145,786 units, while sales of the Sail and other Chevrolet models surged 81.4 per cent to 75,710.

"We capitalized by rolling out a series of new and upgraded products under several brands to complement our existing lineup of vehicles," said Kevin Wale, president of GM China Group.

China reported that overall auto sales rose 30.8 per cent in the January-May period to 2.97 million units, while output rose 32 per cent to three million units.

That followed a 21 per cent increase in passenger car sales during 2005.

GM's flagship joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Group saw sales rise 49 per cent in the first half to 201,901, while sales of its minivan and commercial joint venture, SAIC-GM-Wuling, climbed 45 per cent to 250,066, GM said.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen reported Tuesday that its sales in China jumped 30 per cent in the first half amid launches of several new models.

Volkswagen said it sold 345,375 units in China in the six-month period, including imports and Audi-branded vehicles.

VW was the first major foreign automaker to enter the China market in 1984 through a joint venture. Its sales fell about 15 per cent last year to 564,306, while GM sales climbed 35 per cent to 665,390.

Les mer her
grong2
20.07.2006 12:47
#825

Endre
Har med egne øyne sett hvordan miljøet i Kina er tildels totalt ødelagt. Men myndighetene tar visse grep for å gjøre noe med det. Noen økonomer har anslått at Kinas vekst ville vært 4 prosentpoeng lavere om de hadde gjennomført alle "nødvendige miljøtiltak". Det sier i alle fall noe om skalaen på problemene...

China's Big Clean-Up Sparks Business Boom

JINSHAN, China (AP) -- China has budgeted some 1.3 trillion yuan (US$162 billion; euro127 billion) for environmental protection in 2006-2010. At the same time, its more than 600 big cities are belatedly tackling long-neglected sewage treatment and searching for ways to restore depleted aquifers and purify tainted rivers and lakes.

The country's 27-year-old economic boom has left its waterways and coastlines severely polluted by industrial and farm chemicals and domestic sewage. Its countryside is littered with garbage and construction waste, and its cities suffocated by smog.

Having long failed to enforce its own environmental safeguards, China lacks the expertise to clean up its own mess. Contracts for such work often go to foreign companies like Suez, which has a 50-year contract to provide water treatment and supplies for the Shanghai industrial zone.

China's market for environmental goods and services is about $32 billion (euro25.6 billion) annually, according to the U.S. government's Office of Energy and Environmental Industries. Almost $20 billion (euro16 billion) of that involves water treatment.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have announced new loans for almost $750 million (euro600 million) in new cleanup projects in just the past month. Some involve simple approaches such as building terraces for fields and replanting forests. But many others will require advanced technology.

"China now realizes that environmental cleaning is part of development," said Jean-Louis Chaussade, executive vice president of Suez SA in charge of Suez Environment. "It's an enormous objective. It's huge and it will take a generation," he said.

Link
OldNick
27.07.2006 14:27
#4021

Endre
Kina: Oppgradert til stabil.

- 21-25% "bad loans",
- reservene av utenlandsk valuta runder snart US$1.000 mrd (beregnet, ikke alt er US$).

S&P upgrades China on growth outlook, bank reforms

Jul 26, 2006

HONG KONG, July 27 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's raised China's long-term sovereign credit rating on Thursday, rewarding Beijing for cleaning up its banking sector and liberalising the world's fourth-largest economy.

S&P upgraded China by a single notch to A from A-minus, bringing it into line with the assessment of rival Moody's Investors Service. S&P has a stable outlook on China's rating, whereas Moody's on July 7 raised its outlook to positive.

"The upgrade on the ratings on China reflects China's persistent efforts to strengthen the banking sector to reduce the future fiscal burden, as well as China's continuing economic liberalisation and reform that will further entrench excellent growth prospects," S&P said.

The ratings agency, which last upgraded China on July 19, 2005, also raised its rating on Hong Kong to AA from AA-minus.

"The higher credit rating on China reduces the likelihood of potential negative developments in China spilling over to Hong Kong and adversely affecting its credit standing," S&P said.

Andrew Freris, chief Asia-Pacific economist for BNP Paribas, said the upgrade was no surprise given that China has a huge external surplus and is a booming economy with low inflation.

"The most important thing is China's external debt is around $318 billion and they have foreign exchange reserves of $941 billion. China is a net lender to the world to the tune of $623 billion -- primarily to the U.S.

"The reserves have been continuously increasing, while foreign debt has been modestly stable with small rises," he said.

China's economy grew 11.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1995. Its trade surplus hit a record $14.5 billion in June.

This high growth rate has given China the fiscal firepower to clean up its banking system, where non-performing assets have fallen to a range of 21 to 25 percent of total loans, a proportion that S&P said was likely to fall further.

"Foreign participation in China's financial system will also help to spread best practices, which in turn will improve the performance of the banking sector's credit underwriting," the agency said.
OldNick
27.07.2006 14:49
#4022

Endre
Oil Is Like Milk; China Has No Need to Buy Cows: Andy Mukherjee


Andy Mukherjee

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- If your life depended on drinking a glass of milk every day, would you buy a cow?

That's the question Chinese planners must ask themselves as they evaluate their push to buy energy assets from Sudan and Angola to Iran, an effort that has prompted the country's state- owned oil companies to spend $15 billion in the past five years.

Agreed, the world's second-biggest auto market after the U.S. needs every drop of oil it can get. And China isn't the only country that has begun to equate energy security with physical possession of oil-producing assets.

On July 18, I wrote about a copycat drive by India.

Whereas the Chinese have bought more than 100 oil fields and companies in the past five years, the Indians have been largely unsuccessful in their quest. In the past year alone, state-owned Indian oil companies have lost at least five deals to their Chinese and Korean counterparts.

The issue, however, is more complex than who's succeeding and who's not. What needs to be considered is whether it makes sense for any Asian nation to make the purchase of energy- producing assets a cornerstone of its foreign policy when the economics of this global oil-hunt may itself be dubious.

According to three McKinsey & Co. consultants, if China manages to keep domestic production from its aging fields at the current level, it will need to buy 3 percent of the world's proven petroleum assets -- more than the combined reserves of BP Plc, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA -- to meet projected demand until 2025.

"Even if it were possible to buy all the reserves China is likely to need, the investment probably wouldn't be a smart one," Ivo Bozon, Subbu Narayanswamy and Jonathan Woetzel wrote in a special China edition of the McKinsey Quarterly.

Paying Premium Prices

``A much more efficient and less costly strategy would be to reform the state-controlled petroleum sector, open it to foreign investment, and integrate the country into the global system that supplies Japan, the U.S. and other big energy consumers,'' Bozon, Narayanswamy and Woetzel said.

According to the McKinsey consultants' estimates, Chinese national oil companies pay at least a 10th more than their international rivals for foreign reserves.

Why are they paying this premium? How does buying oil fields in Sudan -- and risking relations with the U.S. in the bargain -- secure China's energy supplies?

Of what use would China's overseas investments be if, say in the event of a world war, its enemies gained control of the Straits of Malacca, the chokepoint through which four-fifths of the oil used by China passes?

Value and Vulnerability

Even if China were promised home delivery of all the overseas crude it needed, where would it receive the commodity and how would it be refined?

"To keep up with surging demand, the country needs to build a large, technologically world-class refinery every year for the next 15 years, at a cost of about $2 billion apiece," the McKinsey researchers said.

.

Real Security

For Asian nations, buying oil assets is a political project. Perhaps politicians have a sharper assessment of future security risks than the market. Or, what's more likely, they are just being overanxious and bidding up prices of even marginal assets.

.

The world has invested significant resources in creating a global energy network that makes oil a traded commodity.

There's nothing to be gained in bypassing the network, even if it could be done. The idea should be to find the most efficient way to embrace it.

If you need milk every day, you should buy a refrigerator. A cow in the backyard would be too much.

(Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
grong2
28.07.2006 11:57
#879

Endre
In India, 'next great' industrial story - "Made in China" may be getting a new rival

As global manufacturers seek new places to plant their flags, India - where factories have long been conspicuous for their relative absence - is seeing early stirrings of an industrial renaissance. The effects could be profound for India's vast number of poor people, and for the international sourcing of goods from cars to bras.

For decades, manufacturing in India has been hobbled by antiquated labor laws, creaking infrastructure and paperwork. The new economy of call centers and software campuses arrived to buoy the relatively privileged, but for many of the three-quarters of Indians with less than middle-school education, few factories meant few jobs.

Across India, total exports - mostly manufactured goods - are rising at a 26 percent annual clip, the Commerce Ministry reported recently. The manufacturing sector is growing at 9.4 percent annually, compared with 6 percent a year from 1991 to 2004, according to the Finance Ministry.

Special economic zones - the same enclaves of relative economic freedom that spearheaded China's export-led industrialization - are now spreading here, providing tax holidays, more control over infrastructure like water and power and less regulation. At least 75 zones are in the works, with more than a dozen already operating.

This kind of pilot-project recalls how China once tested new policies and created an appetite for them nationwide, said Li Kui-wai, an economist at Hong Kong University.

Link

og

Slideshow


[Endret 28.07.06 12:11 av grong2]
grong2
31.07.2006 22:22
#905

Endre
China, India moving ahead of the pack

HONG KONG - The United States, China and India will together account for more than 50% of global economic growth between 2005 and 2020, with Asia's overall share of the world economy rising to 43% from its current 35%, according to the "Foresight 2020" study conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and sponsored by Nasdaq-listed Cisco Systems.

The next 15 years will see a significant outpacing by Asia, and particularly the powerhouses of China and India, of the rest of the developing world in gross domestic product (GDP), wages and consumption power. The Foresight 2020 study projects the continued rapid growth of China, with it matching the US as the world's largest consumer market in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2020.

However, the report also projects continued economic primacy for the United States, saying: "The US will remain the most important single country across all the dimensions of power as [the] result of the size of its GDP, its military might, internal cohesion and persistent technological lead."

Link
grong2
01.08.2006 10:42
#909

Endre
China, Largest Command Economy, Isn't Responding to Commands

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's leaders are finding that the world's largest command economy no longer responds to their commands.

Growth is hurtling along at the fastest pace in a decade, defying official efforts to curb investment in unneeded factories and real-estate projects. The government's immediate concerns are that overheated growth will saddle China with excess capacity, create more asset bubbles, and increase friction with the U.S. and other trading partners.

In Beijing, an airport terminal under construction will be bigger than all five terminals at London's Heathrow Airport combined. The capital will also add an estimated 1 billion square feet of high-end property by 2008, according to Jack Rodman, a partner at Ernst & Young in Beijing.
``I keep wondering where all the demand is going to come from for all this expensive office space,'' says Rodman.

In the banking system, measures taken so far to curb lending ``are like taking a spoonful of water from an overflowing swimming pool,'' says Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong.

Outstanding yuan-denominated loans on June 30 stood at 21.5 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion), 15.2 percent higher than a year earlier. New yuan lending in the first half totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, approaching the central bank's full-year target of 2.5 trillion yuan.

China's banks carry more than 1.3 trillion yuan ($163 billion) of non-performing loans, exceeding 8 percent of those on their books, according to Moody's Investors Services. Moody's rates the financial strength of Chinese banks E+, on par with Pakistan's and Ukraine's.

Link
grong2
02.08.2006 18:50
#939

Endre
Emerging Giants

These new contenders hail from seemingly unlikely places, developing nations such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and even Egypt and South Africa. They are shaking up entire industries, from farm equipment and refrigerators to aircraft and telecom services, and changing the rules of global competition.

Unlike Japanese and Korean conglomerates, which benefited from protection and big profits at home before they took on the world, these are mostly companies that have prevailed in brutally competitive domestic markets, where local companies have to duke it out with homegrown rivals and Western multinationals every day.

As a result, these emerging champions must make profits at price levels unheard of in the U.S. or Europe. Indian generic drugmakers, for example, often charge customers in their home market as little as 1% to 2% of what people pay in the U.S. Cellular outfits in North Africa, Brazil, and India offer phone service for pennies per minute. Yet these companies often thrive in such tough environments. Egyptian cellular operator Orascom boasts margins of 49%; Mahindra's pretax profit rose 81% last year.

Some already are marquee names. Lenovo Group, the Chinese computer maker, made waves last year by buying IBM's $11 billion PC business. Indian software outfits Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and Wipro have revolutionized the $650 billion technology services industry. Johannesburg brewer SABMiller PLC is challenging Anheuser-Busch Cos.' leadership right in the U.S.

These companies are just the first wave. The biggest international cellular provider? Soon it may be Mexico's América Móvil, which boasts more than 100 million Latin American subscribers and led BusinessWeek's latest rankings of the world's top information technology companies. Never heard of Hong Kong's Techtronic Industries Ltd.? If you buy power tools at Home Depot Inc., where its products now fill the aisles, you probably know some of the brands it manufactures: Ryobi, Milwaukee, and RIDGID.

That leaves the new multinationals in a strong position. Over the next decade, the World Bank projects, developing nations' share of world gross domestic product is expected to grow from one-fifth to one-third. During the next two decades, predicts Goldman, Sachs & Co., China, India, Brazil, and Russia alone will add to their populations some 225 million consumers who earn at least $15,000 a year. That's more than the combined population of Germany and Japan.

How can Western multinationals respond? The first step is to begin respecting the new competition. That is the attitude David C. Everitt, president of Deere's $10.5 billion agricultural division, is adopting toward Mahindra. Everitt concedes the Indian rival could someday pass Deere in global unit sales. Mahindra dominates the Indian market, which is bigger even than America's, and is especially strong in the small tractors that account for two-thirds of U.S. sales.

No matter how the big U.S. companies respond, gone is the era when they could afford to wait for an emerging market to ripen, then count on their ability to roll over the unsophisticated local players. "If you don't participate in these markets, you not only miss opportunities but also are cut out of all the innovation that comes from competing there," says University of Michigan management strategist C.K. Prahalad. "Then you won't be able to withstand the pressure when these companies come and hit you here." Whether one chooses to confront or collaborate, the new multinationals are set to change the rules in industry after industry.

Link

Slideshow versjon
grong2
02.08.2006 19:03
#940

Endre
China and India Tech Plays: An S&P Roundup

Link
OldNick
02.08.2006 19:16
#4057

Endre
re. grong [939],


morsom artikkel. Tar et annet klipp:

Emerging Giants

By Pete Engardio, with Michael Arndt in Chicago and Geri Smith in São José dos Campos, Brazil
BusinessWeek Online

Like other rural residents of southern Mississippi, Jamie Lucenberg, 35, faced a huge cleanup job last fall in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. He needed a tractor fast to clear debris and trees from his 17-acre family farm, just 16 miles north of devastated Biloxi. "We literally had to cut our way up and down the blacktop roads," recalls Lucenberg.

But rather than buy an American-made John Deere or New Holland, brands he grew up with, Lucenberg chose a shiny red Mahindra 5500 made by India's Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. "I have been around equipment all my life," says Lucenberg, who also used the tractor to earn extra money clearing destroyed homes along the Gulf Coast.

But for $27,000, complete with a front loader, the 54-hp Mahindra "is by far the best for the money. It has more power and heavier steel," Lucenberg says. "When you lock it into four-wheel drive, you can move 3,000 pounds like nothing. That thing's an animal." The local dealership in nearby Saucier, Miss. (population 1,300), figures it has sold 300 Mahindras in the past four months.

Surprised that a company from India is penetrating a U.S. market long dominated by venerable names like Deere & Co.? Then it's time to take a look at how globalization has come full circle. A new breed of ambitious multinational is rising on the world scene, presenting both challenges and opportunities for established global players.
________

Mahindra & Mahindra er et av Stensrud nøkkelselskap i Kon-Tiki fondet.

Aksjen må ha 3-4 doblet seg siden han begynte å kjøpe.

Dette indiske selskapet er sidenotert på LSE, London.

De er ikke "helt borte" i Stavanger, nei.
grong2
03.08.2006 15:26
#950

Endre
Ja, jeg har endel felles synspunkter og vurderinger med noe av det Skagenfondene gjør. De er flinke på flere områder. Morsom traktor historie ja :)

China asserts itself as leader of Third World

Harare - On a parade ground in the Zimbabwean capital the national commissioner of police recently told police academy graduates that they should learn Chinese.

And why not? African regimes such as Zimbabwe, largely shunned by the West, are turning to China for economic and political salvation.

Trade between China and Africa has increased more than 300 percent since 2000.

John Robertson, an independent economist in Harare.
"My biggest fear is that Zimbabwe has become so weakened that at some stage the Chinese will say: 'We can bail you out,' and in exchange we not only will repay money but sell their products in the region.
In December, Nigerian officials shut down several shopping centres run by Chinese traders in Lagos.

Even in South Africa, unions, fearful of job losses, especially in the clothing and textile industries, are pressing the government to renegotiate trade agreements with China.

But Friedman believes that despite any resentment in the streets, corrupt and repressive African governments that have nowhere else to turn will look more and more to China for political legitimacy and protection.

Even if China has offered little political help so far, it presents itself as a leader of the third world.

Link
grong2
03.08.2006 16:01
#951

Endre
Direkte investeringer i Kina er som kjent ikke uten utfordringer:

ANALYSIS-Risk rears its head in China's corporate bill market

SHANGHAI, Aug 3 (Reuters) - A corruption probe touching one of Shanghai's largest private investment companies has raised questions about the risk involved in China's fledgling short-term corporate debt market and the accuracy of local rating agencies.

The central bank gave approval in May 2005 for firms to issue corporate bills with maturities of up to one year as part of its efforts to wean companies off excessive reliance on bank loans, which account for nearly 90 percent of their funding.

In March this year, Shanghai-based Fuxi Investment Holding Co. became the first private company to issue such debt, selling 1 billion yuan ($125 million) of one-year bills.


But last week Fuxi stunned the market by announcing that its chairman, Zhang Rongkun, was cooperating with an official investigation. It did not elaborate beyond saying that company operations were continuing as normal.

Suddenly, analysts say, investors who had blithely assumed that corporate bills would move in line with the short-term government debt market were confronted with the notion of credit risk.

"The Fuxi incident has rung a warning bell for the corporate bill market," said bond analyst Qu Qing at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities. "Corporate bills are a product that do not require guarantees. Once issuers fail to pay, investors will face heavy losses."

The price of Fuxi's bills on the interbank market plunged in response to news of the investigation, with the yield surging to 4.1898 percent last Friday from 2.4095 percent a week earlier.

Link
grong2
03.08.2006 16:25
#953

Endre
Guangfa's Chen Buys Winemakers to Lift Small-Cap Fund (Update1)

Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Chen Shide is beating all mutual funds investing in China by buying shares of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co. and Yantai Changyu Pioneer Wine Co., which are benefiting from growing personal incomes.

Chen's 1.69 billion yuan ($212 million) Guangfa Small Cap Growth Equity Fund has returned 101 percent over the past 12 months. That is more than double the gain, including reinvested dividends, of the Shanghai Composite Index. It is the top mutual fund among 346 open-end China equity funds that are tracked by Bloomberg.
``My sole criteria for selecting small-cap stocks is stable earnings growth,'' said Chen, 40, a fund manager with GF Fund Management Co. in Guangzhou, in a telephone interview. ``The earnings growth for consumer stocks will be quite sustainable and impressive in the coming couple of years.''

``Consumer stocks are a buy this year, with the economy becoming more reliant on domestic spending as the major driver,'' said Chen.

To avoid potential risks, Chen makes an average of 20 company visits a year and diversifies his investments. Chen currently invests in 43 stocks.

``I never invest more than 3 percent of the assets in a single stock, and I pay much heed to corporate governance issues and the integrity of management,'' said Chen, a basketball fan who earned a master's degree from Guangzhou-based Jinan University in 1994. ``If you know enough about them, they carry no risks at all.''

China's wine market, worth more than 7 billion yuan, is expanding at an annual pace of more than 10 percent, according to China Wine Online, an Internet-based beverage publication. China is the world's sixth-biggest winemaker.

``The most difficult thing facing fund managers is to know about the transparency of small-cap companies,'' said Zhang Xuejun, who manages the $270 million Desheng Small-Cap Fund at Guotai Junan Allianz Fund Management Co. in Shanghai. ``You need to have good communication with management executives of these companies.'' Zhang's fund has returned 42 over the past year.

A government program to make tradable more than $200 billion of mostly government-held stocks also has helped end a five-year slump that almost halved China's market value.

Link
grong2
07.08.2006 16:36
#995

Endre
Pitfalls for advertisers in Chinese market

Dusseldorf, Germany - German businessmen's eyes light up when they think of China and the unlimited possibilities presented by Asia's biggest market.

But promoting their products poses a major challenge because most of the 1.3 billion Chinese cannot read the advertising slogans if they are written in Latin script.

Translating into Chinese is difficult. The foreign language and the Asian culture are fraught with pitfalls that could easily turn a company's debut in the new market into a disaster.

China presents a whole new challenge. Slick but empty phrases that advertisers love to conjure up for the European and North American markets are not possible in Chinese.

'Each character or pictogram has a meaning. It's not possible to compose anything without the help of native speakers and tests in different dialects,' according to Kircher.

Some of the more successful translations are, according to Kircher: Siemens (xi-men-zi 'gate to the west'), BMW (bao-ma 'valuable horse') and Mercedes-Benz (ben-shi 'fast and safe driving').

Pharmaceutical concern Hoechst, on the other hand, experienced major difficulties with its name.

An initial version came across to many Chinese as 'I want to cheat you,' while a second variation was very similar to the Chinese pronunciation of 'Hitler.'

US concern Pfizer also ran into trouble marketing its potency drug Viagra. The closest translation was under copyright to a competitor, so it opted for 'wan-ai-ke,' which means 'guest who makes love 10,000 times,'

This was frowned on by many Chinese who considered it too provocative.

'The art of finding the correct phrase lies in choosing characters that have a positive meaning and fit the product being marketed. The pronunciation also has to have an association with the Western brand,' Kircher says.

Link
grong2
08.08.2006 22:18
#1001

Endre
China's many roads to prosperity

HONG KONG - Build it and they will come. But it is not a field of dreams that the Chinese government is building for the country's 1.3 billion people; it is a highway - or, rather, a grand network of highways that by 2035 is scheduled to expand to 85,000 kilometers. That's 10,000km longer than the United States' Interstate highway system, currently the world's biggest.

Called "7-9-18", the network will be formed by seven lines emanating from Beijing, nine running through the country north tosouth, and 18 going east to west. It will cover an area with a population of 1 billion and connect all towns and cities with populations above 200,000. It will also link all major transport hubs for aviation, railway, shipping and automobiles and trucks.

The country is investing 2 trillion yuan (US$241.9 billion) in the massive project. Once it is completed, residents in the more developed eastern part of the country should be able to access the nearest expressway in an average of 30 minutes, while those living in central provinces will need an hour. In the remote and underdeveloped west, the closest expressway will be an average of two hours away.

The government considers the project a key part of its development strategy, claiming that it will allow as many as 400 million people to work their way out of poverty and into the middle class in the next 15 years. Despite more than two decades of soaring economic growth, more than 200 million people continue to live on less than $1 a day in China. The country's economic miracle has taken place mainly in the nation's urban centers and remains out of reach for many of its 800 million rural dwellers.

Expressway construction is different in China than in most other countries in that the 7-9-18 links are toll roads largely financed, built and operated by private companies under contract from provincial governments. The contracts establish a period of private ownership during which the companies recoup their investment. After that, local governments take over. This has meant that roads go up fast and furious in the more populous and prosperous regions of the country, while it remains to be seen how truly connected remote western provinces will wind up.

As with so many things in China, the vision is greater than the reality. But the two are coming closer together all the time.

Link
OldNick
09.08.2006 16:36
#4085

Endre
Auto sales drop 16 per cent in July

www.chinaview.cn 2006-08-09

BEIJING, August 9 -- China's July passenger vehicle sales dipped 16 per cent from the previous month, an industry association said yesterday.

"The decline is a normal seasonal adjustment in the industry," Zhu Yiping, the spokeswoman for the Beijing-based auto association told China Daily.

.

However, the auto association said that July sales of passenger vehicles gained 5.39 per cent year-on-year, mainly boosted by strong car sales.

.

Compared to the same period last year, auto sales enjoyed healthy growth in the first seven months of 2006.

Statistics showed combined sales of passenger vehicles jumped 32.14 per cent year-on-year to 2.85 million units from January to July.

Les mer her
grong2
09.08.2006 21:04
#1003

Endre
China's growth: How fast is too fast?

For plenty of Chinese, times have never been better.

But along with the prosperity, there are the worriers - the authorities in Beijing and experts in financial capitals - who say there are signals that the world's fourth-biggest economy is in danger of racing out of control.

What really alarms them is an accelerating orgy of investment in apartment buildings, shopping malls, roads, steel mills, factories, mines, ports and theme parks. Much of the money is coming in the form of loans from mainland Chinese banks, whose balance sheets would make an examiner in the West blanch.

"Investment is skewed towards fixed assets. That is where the problem lies," said Connie Leung, chief economist at Hong Kong-based ERA Economic Research Analysis, a research advisory business specializing on China.

"There are a lot of sectors where producers and suppliers can't raise prices because there is lots of competition. An economy like that can't be overheated," Leung said.

"I think the consequences would manifest themselves first of all in the financial sector," said Frank Harrigan, assistant chief economist at the Asian Development Bank. "Bank balance sheets would deteriorate; non-performing loans would rise quickly."

Although there is an assumption that the government will bail out state- owned banks as it has in the past, the continued accumulation of bad loans increases the danger of a financial crisis.

However, Ren Zhiqiang, one of the highest-profile property developers in Beijing, dismisses fears of a debt explosion from residential property.

Ren, president of the Beijing Hua Yuan Group, flips through glossy brochures of some of his futuristic residential and retail complexes while sitting at his boardroom table. With a laugh he declared: "The banks are always asking me to lunch.

"Housing loans are the best kind of loans in China," he said. "Less than 2 percent of borrowers can't pay their loans on time. Even for those that can't pay, it doesn't mean the banks can't get their money back. They still have the house."

The cost of raw materials have been rising at phenomenal rates in recent months and there are signs that wages are now beginning to rise, at least in the manufacturing centers.

Yet other statistics suggest all is well with manufacturing. Profits were up 28 percent in June from a year earlier as exports continued to power ahead.

But some economists say the official profit data is misleading because the government keeps on increasing the number of companies included in the sample. Walker, the CLSA economist, said the sharp rise in salaries and commodity prices is putting a serious squeeze on profits. By correcting for the number of companies in the sample, year-on-year profit growth comes down to about 6 percent, he said, not 28 percent.

Link
grong2
18.08.2006 10:41
#1086

Endre
Brazil, Russia, India, China Stock Funds Beat Emerging Markets

Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Funds investing in Brazil, Russia, India and China are outperforming emerging markets by combining the world's two most populous nations with two countries feeding their expansion.

``The four countries all have high economic growth and there seems to be virtuous cycle between them,'' said Grant Yun Cheng, who co-manages the $491 million dit-BRIC Stars fund in Frankfurt. Demand for commodities and building materials in China and India is injecting money into the economies of oil- producing Russia and natural resources-rich Brazil, he said.

Link
grong2
22.08.2006 10:37
#1104

Endre
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Profit at Chinese industrial companies grew 28.6 percent in the seven months through July from a year earlier as surging energy and raw material prices boosted earnings at miners and oil companies.

Combined net income rose to 967.9 billion yuan ($121 billion), the Beijing-based National Bureau of Statistics said today in a statement. Growth accelerated from 28 percent in the first half and 20.6 percent in the same period last year. Total sales jumped 26.4 percent to 16.5 trillion yuan.

Earnings are improving as faster economic growth boosts demand for copper and coal and as makers of consumer goods start to pass on higher costs. Higher profits are complicating government measures to curb an investment boom that drove economic growth to 11.3 percent in the second quarter.

``A lot of investments are currently financed by profits, not just by the private sector, but from the state enterprise sector,'' said Bert Hofman, chief economist at the World Bank in Beijing. The government should ``look much more at instruments such as monetary policy, taxation and subsidization'' to control investment.

Link
grong2
22.08.2006 10:39
#1105

Endre
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Southeast Asian ministers began discussions today aimed at dismantling market barriers as they seek to increase investment and trade in the region amid rising competition from China and India.

Economic and trade ministers from the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, meeting in the Malaysian capital of Kuala Lumpur must agree on lowering regional tariffs and standardizing rules as they move toward forging a single market by 2015. They also seek to bridge their differences on drawing up trade accords with countries from the U.S. to China.

``The economic challenge facing Asean is to get investors to view Asean as a single, cohesive, economic entity,'' Malaysia's trade minister Rafidah Aziz said today. ``Developments in the world economic environment make it imperative for Asean to deepen economic integration and strengthen linkages with other major trading partners.''

Link
grong2
22.08.2006 10:44
#1106

Endre
BEIJING, Aug 21 (Reuters) - China's environmental chief has blamed fraudulent environmental approvals and patchy installation of control equipment for rises in pollution, state media reported on Monday.

Pollution discharges increased in 17 provinces in the first half, despite a government pledge to cut emissions 2 percent by the end of the year, the Shanghai Daily newspaper quoted Zhou Shengxian, director of the State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA), as saying.

"Fraud in project approval was prominent, with many projects passing their environmental assessment without fulfilling the necessary criteria," Zhou said.

"It is clear the conflict between economic growth and environmental growth is coming to a head."

Link
grong2
22.08.2006 17:06
#1119

Endre
Jeg tror man foregriper begivenhetene noe all den tid det også rapporteres at det er flere hundre millioner kinesere som man ikke har arbeid til. At det er noe press i noen av de mest utviklede områdene er en annen sak. Et annet pussig fenomen sett med mine øyne er kineseres hang til å fråtse i amerikansk junk food. De elsker det. I Shanghai så jeg blant annet en av restaurantene til Pizza Hut ha en konstant kø av gjester utenfor som ville inn til alle døgnets tider. Jeg gikk forbi denne restauranten mange ganger på forskjellige tider av døgnet og på forskjellige dager over et lengre tidsrom. Alltid kø. Alltid.

China is facing the prospect of an increasingly ageing and obese population that could adversely affect the country's economy, according to new reports.

A newspaper report on Monday blamed the Communist government's one-child policy for labour shortages that could undermine the so far endless supply of cheap workers that has underpinned China's extraordinary economic boom.

About 25 percent of boys between the ages of seven and 18 in urban China are overweight, up from just 0.2 percent in 1985, the China Daily said, citing a survey of 400,000 students across the country.

Link



[Endret 22.08.06 17:07 av grong2]
grong2
22.08.2006 17:23
#1120

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China's quest for oil in the Middle East is threatening US energy and security interests in the region and increasing the risk of a conflict between both nations, analysts say.

Flynt Leverett, senior fellow at the New York-based Saban Centre for Middle East Policy, told Aljazeera.net: "There’s a force of increasing tensions in the Sino-American relationship and if you carry that trend out long enough, you do begin to run a more serious threat."

As the dominant geopolitical power in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf, America's main concern is not only the acquisition of cheap fossil fuel but also the growing involvement of China's energy sector in a number of ''problem" states such as Iran, Sudan and lately, Syria.

Link
grong2
22.08.2006 18:05
#1122

Endre
China water projects to get big investment

BEIJING The Chinese government plans to spend 1 trillion yuan by 2010 to build waste-water treatment plants and upgrade water distribution systems around China, the Ministry of Construction said Tuesday.

Of that amount, which is equivalent to $125.5 billion, as much as 330 billion yuan will be spent on the water projects in urban centers. As many as 278 cities lack proper treatment facilities and at least 30 cities have plants that operate at less than 30 percent capacity, the ministry said.

"We welcome water companies from all over the world to participate in the Chinese market," Qiu Baoxing, deputy minister for construction, said Tuesday at a press briefing in Beijing. "Companies including Veolia and Suez have already done very well in China's water treatment and recycling sector. This is proof that China's water sector is open."

China's biggest water shortages may still be ahead because its urban population is expected to continue growing by as much as 15 million annually, bringing potential "regional water crises," Qiu said. Urban water users jumped by 78.7 million between 2000 and 2005 to 327 million, the ministry said.

Link
grong2
23.08.2006 10:01
#1129

Endre
China's abject poverty population has been reduced by more than 100 million in the 20-year period from 1985 to 2005, thanks to the country's poverty alleviation efforts, a senior poverty relief official said here on Tuesday.

At the end of last year, China had 23.65 million needy people whose per capita annual income is less than 85 U.S. dollars, a poverty line set by the government. Eighty-five U.S. dollars is just 20 percent of the average annual income of the country's rural population, said Liu Jian, director of the State Council Leading Group Office of Poverty Alleviation and Development.

Link
grong2
23.08.2006 10:04
#1130

Endre
China said on Wednesday that construction of its longest railway tunnel, Wushaoling tunnel in northwestern Gansu Province, had been completed, facilitating trade between Europe and China's booming east coast.

The Wushaoling Tunnel is a 20.05 km dual-bore railway tunnel in Gansu, north-west China.
The tunnel has reduced the distance between Dacaigou and Longgou by 30.4 km. Key to the Asia-Europe Land Bridge, the tunnel is part of the 3,651 km section linking Lianyungang in East China with Ürümqi in Northwest China.
The tunnel consists of two bores with centres separated by 40 m. It is designed to allow speeds of 160 km/h.
grong2
23.08.2006 10:07
#1131

Endre
Chinese commercial banks saw their bad loan ratios drop by 1.1 percentage points in the first half of the year to 7.5 percent end June, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) has announced.

Bad loans owed to Chinese banks totaled 1.28 trillion yuan (160 billion U.S. dollars) at the end of June, according to a report seen Tuesday on the regulator's website.

It is noteworthy that the drop in the bad loan ratio has been achieved during a period of rapid expansion of credit, with excessive investment driving the economy to the brink of overheating.

The latest figures from the central bank show that commercial bank loans increased by 16.3 percent in the first seven months year on year.

Link
grong2
23.08.2006 10:11
#1132

Endre
Tata Motors Ltd will outsource automotive components for its proposed small car project from big vendors, a senior company official said Tuesday.

The Company's deputy chief of the strategic sourcing department B.B. Parekh said Tata Motors is looking for big sized suppliers of auto components so that the vendor can ramp up capacity and invest in technology whenever required.

The company has already reduced its vendor base to 700 vendors from the earlier 1,400 to move away from multiple vendor base system, which was not viable.

The company is outsourcing a major chunk of automotive components and the outsourcing is expected to go up to 80 percent in near future, he said.

India can become the auto component hub with major automotive companies like Toyota, General Motors, Dailmler Chrysler, Hyundai and Ford outsourcing from the country, the official added.

Link
grong2
23.08.2006 11:53
#1140

Endre
LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, Burberry Group Plc and 21 other companies are trying to protect rising sales in China by asking Beijing city officials to force mall owners to shut down traders the second time they are caught selling fakes. Xiushui Clothing Market Co., owner of the 1,000-shop Silk Market, and two other centers agreed in June to enforce the ``two-strikes'' rule.

Paris-based LVMH's sales in China are rising 50 percent a year, Arnault said. Worldwide, profit increased 21 percent to 1.4 billion euros ($1.8 billion) in 2005 from 2004.

``The Silk Market case symbolizes that China can no longer tolerate counterfeit products sold so openly in the capital of a nation that is rising in global importance,'' said Paul Ranjard, a lawyer in charge of intellectual property protection at the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing. ``We have to watch carefully to see if the market actually implements this accord.''

Link
grong2
24.08.2006 10:25
#1163

Endre
HONG KONG - When toxic-chemical spills in its rivers threaten the water supply in neighboring countries, China's lax environmental record becomes a serious regional issue.

However, when researchers in California report that on a given day 25% of the pollution littering the skies above Los Angeles has wafted over from China, the country's battle to clean up its degraded environment turns into a world war. It's not just China's trade imbalance that is commanding international attention these days; the country is also increasingly known as the world's greatest exporter of pollution.

The issue has become so big that Chinese leaders are vowing to do something about it. The government has committed US$162 billion to cleaning up the environment over the next five years.

Overall, SEPA estimates pollution costs China $200 billion a year, or 10% of its GDP. According to the World Bank, 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China, where poisoned air leads to 400,000 premature deaths every year. With car ownership in the country also soaring, experts say China will overtake the United States in the next decade as the world's greatest emitter of greenhouse gases, which scientists link to global warming.

What would truly make an impact on China's efforts at environmental cleanup may be too much to ask right now: freeing up local media to report on the environmental damage that is occurring in their areas, freeing up citizens to protect their property rights through the legal system, and making sure that system has the integrity of the rule of law.

That said, even under the best of circumstances, China will not see blue skies again any time soon. Things may actually get worse before they get better. And that has become a source of worry even for people as far away as California.
grong2
24.08.2006 11:18
#1168

Endre
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- When Rajat Gupta couldn't find a decent job in India after earning a mechanical engineering degree from the Indian Institute of Technology in Delhi in 1971, he did what many compatriots did. He moved to the U.S. He attended Harvard Business School in Boston, then landed a job at the New York office of McKinsey & Co. Inc. in 1973. Twenty-one years later, in 1994, Gupta, 57, became the first foreign-born chief executive officer of the consulting firm, which then had $1.3 billion in revenue.

As Gupta's rise illustrates, PepsiCo Inc., which last week named Indra Nooyi as its next CEO, isn't the first global corporation to recognize the caliber of Indian executive talent. The annual reports of many large companies show Indians are landing big jobs. Like Gupta and Nooyi, most are products of an investment in higher education the country made more than 40 years ago.

``There is a huge demand for Indian executives,'' says Rana Talwar, 58, former CEO of Standard Chartered Plc in London who runs Sabre Capital, a buyout firm. ``The quality of the education is very good. And Indians can adapt to any environment. When we grew up, we got used to adverse conditions such as power outages.''

Link
OldNick
24.08.2006 20:07
#4128

Endre
Asian trade bloc would rival NAFTA, EU

GEOFFREY YORK, Globe and Mail
August 24, 2006

BEIJING — Backed by the economic muscle of Japan and China, a new free-trade zone representing almost half of the world's population could soon be emerging in Asia to challenge the older spheres of the Western world.

The free-trade idea, spearheaded by a Japanese promise of ¥10-billion ($95-million) for a detailed study of how to make it work, won support yesterday from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at a meeting in Malaysia.

Plans for the trade zone, originally aimed for completion in 2020, are now being accelerated. The new goal is to have the trade zone established by 2015. It would cover 16 nations -- the 10 members of ASEAN plus China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.

The zone would have a combined population of 3.1 billion, almost half of the global population. Its total economic output would be almost $10-trillion (U.S.) -- about a quarter of the world's GDP.

It could become a natural rival to the power of the European Union and the North American free-trade agreement. The United States and Canada would be conspicuously absent from the new Asian trade zone, despite their close links to Asian countries and their own status as Asia-Pacific economies.

Japan is pushing the idea hard. It estimates that a free-trade zone would increase the total economic output of the 16 countries by $215-billion. Formal negotiations could begin by 2008.

"ASEAN countries expressed their interest and support," Japanese Economy Minister Toshihiro Nikai told reporters after his talks with ASEAN members in Kuala Lumpur yesterday. "It will be discussed in detail between now and the end of the year."

After unveiling Japan's proposal for the 16-nation free-trade agreement, Mr. Nikai said it was a "main pillar" of Japan's policies in the region. "If we are able to create an amicable grouping for the development progress of Asia, we are certain that this will bring benefit for all the countries in the region."

Some ASEAN countries, however, want the association to focus on its existing talks with Japan over a bilateral deal between the two sides. The association already has trade agreements with China and South Korea, and it doesn't want to lose momentum on its Japan negotiations.

Another potential problem is the rivalry between Japan and China. Although both are in favour of free trade in the region, China has backed a slightly different version of the trade zone. It remains to be seen if both countries will fully throw their weight behind a plan that both can agree on.

The free-trade idea has been gaining political support since last December, when the 16 nations held their first-ever East Asia Summit. The summit heard a growing chorus of support for the idea of an East Asian community, similar to the early phases of the European Union.

The collapse of the World Trade Organization's multilateral trade talks has also bolstered the level of support for an Asian free-trade zone.

But the idea has had economic momentum for much longer. Trade among the 16 nations has been growing steadily for many years. Intraregion trade now accounts for 56 per cent of all trade by the 16 countries, compared with just 33 per cent in 1984.

The member nations of ASEAN include Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.

Proposed Asian group

Members: Japan, China, India, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand and the 10-member ASEAN group: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam

Population: 3.1 billion

Total GDP: almost $10-trillion (U.S.)

NAFTA

Members: Canada, United States, Mexico

Population: 430.5 million

Total GDP: $12.9-trillion

European Union

Members: Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, United Kingdom

Population: 460.1 million

Total GDP: $11.7-trillion
OldNick
26.08.2006 10:33
#4133

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China's economy poised to overtake US: Fischer

Aug 25, 2006
By Tim Ahmann

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - China's economy could be the world's largest within 25 years, although it won't be able to keep up its current break-neck pace forever, Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said on Friday.

Fischer, once the IMF's No. 2 official, said growth was likely to ease when Beijing took the necessary step of letting its yuan currency rise.

"If the Chinese economy were to continue to grow in real terms at a rate 7 percent greater than that of the United States economy at a constant exchange rate -- as it has for over 20 years -- its GDP would indeed overtake that of the United states in about another quarter century," he told central bankers and top academics from around the globe.

"Further, the yuan is likely to appreciate over that period relative to the dollar ... reducing the length of the catch-up period," Fischer added.

He said Beijing could ill afford to let the economy continue to run at a hot 10 percent growth rate indefinitely.

"At some point -- perhaps because of inflationary pressures and the costs of the continuing reserve buildup -- the process of exchange rate appreciation that other countries in the region, including Japan, Korea and others have experienced, will have to begin," he said.

However, Fischer said that even when that happens, the yuan is likely to rise in value at a rate that allows China to continue to run a sizable current account trade surplus.

U.S. businesses have said an undervalued yuan gives Chinese producers an unfair advantage on world markets. Washington has pressed Beijing to allow for more flexibility in its currency as one way to help ease global trade imbalances.

Fischer expressed hope that a disruptive unwinding of imbalances and narrowing of the large U.S. trade gap could be avoided.

"It is easy to describe crisis scenarios, particularly with regard to the unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit -- and many delight from doing so," he said. "But overall it seems that the international economy and its market and governmental organizations have sufficient flexibility, and perhaps even the wisdom, needed to deal with the required adjustments."

[Kommentar: Idag er Kina's GDP målt i "current US$" ca. 2225 mrd. (2005-est.), mens målt i PPP-basert US$ er den ca. US$ 8.860 mrd.

Med sine ca. 1314 mill. innbyggere gir det en GDP/innbygger på ca. 1690 målt i current US$, mens den er ca. 6740 målt pr. PPP-basis.

USA med sine ca. 298 mill. innbyggere har nå en GDP på ca. US$ 12.500 mrd., tilsvarende ca. US$ 41.800/innbygger.

Med 7% høyere vekst pr. år kan man regne ut at Kina (som Fischer stadfester over) kommer til å ta igjen USA's GDP om ca. 25 år.

Med 10%/år fortsatt vekst i Kina (og 3% i USA), vil GDP være ca. $27.000 mrd. i begge land i 2031.

Ref: ''CIA: The World Factbook''

Komplett liste over PPP-faktorer (2003-tall) kan finnes hos World Bank]



[Endret 26.08.06 11:26 av OldNick]
[Endret 26.08.06 11:27 av OldNick]
grong2
28.08.2006 00:01
#1181

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A Thaw Between India and China
The developing relationship between the wary Asian giants could shape the 21st century.

NEW DELHI — High atop a snowy Himalayan pass, a lonely road linking Asia's two giants reopened last month after a 44-year diplomatic roadblock.

Leaders in India and China hailed the event as a sign of the growing rapprochement between neighbors that have eyed each other with distrust since a 1962 border war. Officials say the artery along the fabled Silk Road will invigorate trade between their two booming countries.

But the reopened Nathu La pass is an apt symbol of SinoIndian ties in more ways than one. The rough terrain, icy weather and extremely short list of goods approved for exchange are emblematic of the rocky path of limited engagement that Beijing and New Delhi have embarked on after decades of a political deep freeze.

"They've been a rising power for 20 years, and we didn't notice. We were so obsessed with our little world," said Mohan Guruswamy, head of the Center for Policy Alternatives in New Delhi. "The establishment in India has begun to take note, and it's slowly and lumberingly beginning to change its attitude."

Mention China here and hackles still rise. Official Indian rhetoric on the behemoth to the north remains heavily colored by the 1962 border war that led to the closing of the Nathu La pass, a conflict each side accuses the other of provoking.

In 1998, India's defense minister pointed to China as the country's No. 1 threat. That same year, the Indian prime minister infuriated Beijing by writing a letter to President Clinton citing China as one of two reasons India was conducting nuclear weapons tests.

The other reason was archrival Pakistan, a longtime ally of China whose own nuclear buildup Beijing is accused of aiding.

But demonstrating the wariness with which the two sides still regard each other, Indian merchants are allowed to export only 29 items, such as rice and flour, across the pass, and their Chinese counterparts must stick to a list of 15 approved goods, including goatskins and yak tails, which are used as fly swatters.

In January, Beijing and New Delhi agreed to work together in securing reserves abroad. Putting the deal into practice may be difficult, but analysts say both nations need to cooperate in the face of dwindling supplies.

"There isn't enough if you just go and fight for it. We need to pool our resources," said Acharya of Jawaharlal Nehru University.

"Competition is bound to emerge, particularly since we're looking at the same markets, the same sources of technology and energy," she said. "But this is precisely why [China] is the most important potential partner as well. You could clash on energy if you don't work with China. You could clash on U.S. markets if there's not some kind of understanding there. We are both too big to be competing for the same things, in the same neighborhoods, at the same time."

Link
grong2
29.08.2006 22:46
#1218

Endre
INDIA AND CHINA SAIL IN DIFFERENT BOATS

Measured in terms of purchasing power parity, China now ranks as the second largest economy in the world while India trails at number four. Compared directly, Chinese economy is already three times larger than the Indian one. China has seven times more Internet users and ten times more mobile phone users. While China has a trade surplus amounting to $200 billion with the USA alone, India's entire external trade amounts to the same figure. While China is registering trade surplus every year, India's trade deficits are growing to disastrous levels. And most importantly, Inflation in China is almost zero while in India even the government figures put it at 5+%, while the public estimates are anywhere above ten per cent.

China’s excessive authoritarianism and obsession with state power and control, along with its controlled media, may seem to be stifling settlement of contentious issues, but the fact remains that the system has been working wonders. It has brought prosperity to its citizen, it has kept them happy, and it has allowed them to have dignity of human beings - something often not available in India. No doubt there must be many problems in China as well - there is no Shangri-La in this world - but that doesn't mean the world must equate David with Goliath.

What I wish to achieve by writing this article is simple: India and China cannot be - and should not be - clubbed together. They were in the same boat fifty years back; when India was just freed from the colonial rule and China was reconstructing after the Second World War. But as of today there is only one valid comparison among them: that the two have the largest populations to support. Apart from this there is nothing which forms a common denominator among the two nations. The way things are progressing in India, Bangalore will never become another Beijing and Bombay will never become another Shanghai. It is time the international media readjusts its perspective and present a more honest view to its readers.

This also means that during the coming decades while the Chinese commodity consumption may continue to rise, the Indian one may stagnate and may well fall. After all commodities are getting more expensive, and there will be a time only the highest bidders will be able to lay claim to them.

Link


grong2
30.08.2006 22:32
#1240

Endre
China's greed culture

The growing storm in China over serious misconduct at Shanghai's municipal pension fund is far from the first financial scandal to engulf an arm of its state. Nor, it can be confidently predicted, will it be the last. But in a country where official corruption and malfeasance at all levels are rampant, it is nonetheless particularly striking.

One reason is that the affair has attracted unusually close attention from the central government. The explanation probably has less to do with the scale of wrongdoing, which is still unknown, than with the opportunity it provides China's leadership to discredit and undermine the politically once-powerful "Shanghai faction" linked to Jiang Zemin, the country's former president.

But this incident also stands out because Shanghai is China's financial and commercial capital and a powerful symbol of its economic modernisation drive. The city has made much of its efforts to promote good governance and public probity. If management of its pension fund can be found so badly wanting, what does it say about standards in the rest of China?

The answer is all too clear from the continuing toll of skulduggery and abuses across the country. They range from countless cases of embezzlement and fraud to the predatory excesses of local Communist party officials. Concerned that rising public protests could threaten its grip on power, the party has responded by launching repeated anti-corruption drives and meting out rough justice to suspected offenders.

However, such measures are unlikely to stop the rot, because its causes are systemic. The party's position as the supreme organ of state means all accountability comes from above, while attempts to exert it from below are suppressed. Conduct is subject not to the rule of law, but to the political dictates of those higher up in the hierarchy. While the absence of checks and balances gives the party great power, it inhibits its responsible exercise.

Lack of independent institutions robs China of the disciplines needed to uphold standards in public life. Intolerance of popular scrutiny allows official misdeeds to go undetected and insulates those in power from grassroots pressures. That makes them often slow to recognise and respond to serious threats to national welfare, such as environmental degradation. Furthermore, by making the pursuit of material enrichment the nation's priority above all else, Beijing has sanctioned the growth of a greed-is-good culture in which corruption flourishes.

It would be rash to predict that the tensions between China's embrace of greater economic freedom and its autocratic political system will lead soon to the latter's downfall. But its closed and rigid methods remain a dead weight on the nation's development at a time when it faces growing challenges. If it is to continue to master them, its rulers must start to open up.

Link



[Endret 30.08.06 22:32 av grong2]
grong2
01.09.2006 13:15
#1275

Endre
A less ideological Chinese text puts Mao in his place
By Joseph Kahn The New York Times

Published: August 31, 2006


BEIJING When high school students in Shanghai crack open their history textbooks this fall, they may be in for a surprise. The new standard world history text drops wars, dynasties and Communist revolutions in favor of colorful tutorials on economics, technology, social customs and globalization.

Discussion of socialism has been reduced to a single, short chapter in the senior high school history course. Chinese communism before economic reform in 1979 is covered in a sentence. The text mentions Mao Zedong only once, in a chapter on etiquette.

Nearly overnight, the country's most prosperous schools have s*****d the Marxist template that had dominated standard history texts since the 1950s. The changes passed high-level scrutiny, the authors say, and are part of a broader effort to promote a more stable, less violent view of Chinese history that serves current economic and political goals.

Supporters say the overhaul enlivens mandatory history courses for junior and senior high school students and prepares them better for life in the real world.

Previously, textbooks, not unlike the ruling Communist Party, changed relatively little in a quarter-century of market-oriented economic reforms. They were glaringly out of sync with the realities students face outside the classroom.

But critics say that the new textbooks trade one political agenda for another, that they do not so much rewrite history as diminish it.

For a one-party state that has largely abandoned its official ideology, it is apparently considered better that people think more about the future than the past.

The new text focuses on ideas and buzzwords that dominate the state-run media and official discourse: economic growth, innovation, foreign trade, political stability, respect for diverse cultures and social harmony.

J.P. Morgan, Bill Gates, the New York Stock Exchange, the U.S. space shuttles and Japan's bullet train are all highlighted in the new textbooks. There is a lesson on how neckties became fashionable. The French and October Revolutions, once seen as pivotal turning points in world history, now get far less attention. Mao, the Long March, colonial oppression and the Nanjing massacre are now taught only in a compressed history curriculum in junior high school.

"Our traditional version of history was focused on ideology and national identity," said Zhu Xueqin, a historian at Shanghai University. "The new history is less ideological, and that suits the political goals of today."

The changes are at least initially limited to Shanghai. That elite urban region has leeway to alter its curriculum and textbooks and has in the past introduced practices that the central government subsequently instructed the rest of the country to follow.

But the textbooks have provoked a lively debate among historians in advance of their full-scale introduction in the autumn term. Several Shanghai schools began using the texts on an experimental basis in the last school year.

Many scholars said they did not regret leaving behind the Marxist perspective in history courses (it is still taught in required classes on politics).

But some criticized what they saw as an effort to minimize history altogether. Chinese and world history in junior high school have been compressed into two years from three years, while the single year in senior high school devoted to history now focuses on cultures, ideas and civilizations.

"The junior high textbook castrates history, while the senior high school textbook eliminates it entirely," one Shanghai history teacher wrote in an online discussion on the subject.

Zhou Chunsheng, a professor at Shanghai Normal University and one of the lead authors of the new textbook series, said that his purpose was to rescue history from its traditional emphasis on leaders and wars and make people and societies the central theme.

"History does not belong to emperors or generals," Zhou said in an interview. "It belongs to the people."

"It may take some time for others to accept this, naturally, but a similar process has long been under way in Europe and the United States," he said.

Zhou said the new textbooks followed the ideas of the French historian Fernand Braudel, who advocated including culture, religion, social customs, economics and ideology in a new approach to "total history." That approach that has been popular in many Western countries for more than half a century.

Braudel elevated history above the ideology of any nation. China has steadily moved away from its ruling ideology of communism, but the Shanghai textbooks are the first to try examining it as a phenomenon, rather than preaching it as the truth.

Socialism is still referred to as having a "glorious future." But the concept is reduced to one of 52 chapters in the senior high school text. Revolutionary socialism gets less emphasis than the industrial revolution and the information revolution.

Students now study Mao, still officially revered as the founding father of modern China but no longer regularly promoted as an influence on policy, only in junior high. In the senior high school text, he is mentioned just fleetingly as part of a lesson on the custom of lowering flags to half-staff at state funerals, like Mao's in 1976.

Deng Xiaoping, who began China's market-oriented reforms, appears in both the junior high school text and the senior high school version, with emphasis on his economic vision.

Gerald Postiglione, an associate professor of education at the University of Hong Kong, said the mainland Chinese education authorities had searched for ways to make the school curriculum more relevant.

"The emphasis is on producing innovative thinking and preparing students for a global discourse," he said. "It is natural that they would ask whether a history textbook that talks so muc
grong2
02.09.2006 22:30
#1300

Endre
Revenue of information industry grows 26 percent in first seven months

China's electronic information industry saw a rapid growth in the first seven months of this year, with revenue rising by 26.6 percent over the same period last year to 2.2 trillion yuan (275 billion U.S. dollars).

Data from the Ministry of Information Industry showed the sales income of the manufacturing sector grew 26.6 percent to two trillion yuan, and that of the software industry was up 26.2 percent to 190 billion yuan.

The profit of the manufacturing sector hit 67.7 billion yuan, up 25.7 percent from the same period a year earlier. The ministry said the software industry had maintained a rapid development in both services and exports, with export volume standing at 1.68 billion U.S. dollars from January to July, up 32.2 percent from the corresponding period of 2005.

Sales income from computers was up 19 percent, communications equipment was up 36.3 percent and electronic components up 38.9 percent. The ministry said the industry's profitability had been affected by rising costs of energy and raw materials.
grong2
02.09.2006 22:32
#1301

Endre
The Chinese drank more than 30 million tons of beer last year and consumption per capita reached 24.2 liters, according to the country's alcoholic drinks industry association. China had been the world's largest producer and consumer of beer for four consecutive years, said Wang Yancai, secretary of the association, during the China International Wine Industry Expo 2006 here Friday.

As living standards of ordinary Chinese continued to rise, beer consumption had soared. China had more than two million people working in breweries, with the production value exceeding 400 billion yuan (50.3 billion U.S.dollars) in 2005.
grong2
02.09.2006 22:49
#1303

Endre
Searing growth clashes with a feeble infrastructure

Big as it is, Nhava Sheva is too small to handle the crush of traffic. John Deere tractors already wait as long as four days in containers at the dock before being loaded on a ship.

"If this pace of growth continues, we will see more congestion at the port," said Raj Kalathur, managing director and chief executive of Deere's operations in India.

China has faced capacity problems, too. A surge in steel production in early 2004 overwhelmed Chinese bulk cargo ports. Ships waited at anchor for as long as four weeks to unload iron ore, at a cost of $100,000 a day for the Chinese steel mills that had chartered them. Inflation quintupled in a year, to 5.3 percent, as bottlenecks at ports, highways, railroads and elsewhere in the economy drove up companies' costs.

The Chinese response was swift and decisive. The pace of port investment nearly tripled in six months. Work crews labored around the clock to erect more cranes and expand wharves.
India has struggled to build adequate roads. Four-lane divided highways now crisscross China, rivaling the best-designed superhighways elsewhere and cutting freight costs sharply. But India still has not knitted its four largest cities together with modern roads.

Belatedly, India's roads and ports are improving. Just four years ago, Sona Koyo Steering Systems, an auto parts maker, incurred hefty financing costs to keep a month's inventory on hand in case deliveries were delayed. Now the company's factory in Gurgaon makes six deliveries a day to a nearby Maruti car assembly plant. The 8-mile, or 13-kilometer, drive takes an hour or more because of constant traffic jams, but the deliveries get through.

India is also starting to address chronic power shortages; blackouts are rare now in many cities in central and southern India. Labor costs are often much lower in central and southern India as well, partly because unions tend to be weaker. Foreign manufacturers are directing much of their investment toward central and southern India even as many of the country's old-line industrial companies still depend heavily on factories in the north.

"I'm not going to deny infrastructure is bad," said Surinder Kapur, chairman and managing director of Sona Koyo. "But a lot of our vendors are around us, a lot of our customers are close to us."

For all of India's challenges, many experts say it is well on its way to meeting the government's ambitious target of 8 percent to 9 percent annual growth over the next five years. Despite corruption and inefficiency, the government is easing restrictions and supporting somewhat greater investment in power, export facilities, roads, and other infrastructure.

"There are things happening, and that is with minimal infrastructure," said Narhari Rao, the Asian Development Bank's principal economist in India. "With some quality infrastructure coming in, attaining the government's growth rate shouldn't be a problem."
dow
03.09.2006 21:22
#9897

Endre
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Richard Selby that the likelihood of an economic crisis in China is not great, but that the possibility of a "hard landing" for that economy can not be eliminated, The Washington Post reported Saturday, citing Reuters.
Bernanke's August 30 letter said, "We believe that the chance of a Chinese economic crisis is very low for the foreseeable future."
"Although the banking sector is burdened with an enormous and probably growing stock of problematic loans, the government possesses sizable resources and is unlikely to allow the banking system to fail," Bernanke told the Alabama Republican.
Bernanke also said Beijing's large foreign exchange reserves made a currency crisis unlikely, the newspaper reported.
"However, we do not entirely discount the possibility of a 'hard landing,' in the form of significantly slower growth, as authorities attempt to reduce investment growth from its current rapid pace," he wrote.
The Fed chief said the rapid pace of investment in China was leading to overcapacity in some industries and likely adding to bad loans already on bank books, the report said.
"However, there is less evidence of widespread overheating. Inflation is still quite low," he added.
Bernanke said Beijing had indicated it wanted to rein in the pace of investment spending and reduce its reliance on export-led growth, according to the report.
"They have taken some steps to try to encourage consumption. However, they still have not allowed a substantial appreciation of the renminbi (currency), a step that many analysts argue would be the most effective way to address the imbalances in the economy," he wrote
grong2
04.09.2006 14:32
#1314

Endre
Chinese economy is powered by leading firms



ZHENGZHOU: The top 500 Chinese companies accounted for more than three-fourths of the national economy last year, but have a long way to go to catch up with the Fortune 500 in terms of competitiveness, investment in R&D and energy efficiency.

A report released by the Chinese Enterprise Confederation (CEC) on Saturday said the top players generated 14.1 trillion yuan (US$1.8 trillion) in revenues, which made up 77.6 per cent of the gross domestic product.

Oil and petrochemical giant Sinopec Corp topped the list of the Top 500 with an operating revenue of 823 billion yuan (US$102.9 billion) and a profit of 21.9 billion yuan (US$2.7 billion), up about 30 per cent and 108 per cent over 2004. The company also led the table the previous year.

The State Grid, China National Petroleum Corporation, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Mobile were ranked second to fifth.

Of the top 500, 23 qualify for the Fortune Global 500 in terms of revenues, said Feng Bing, CEC's executive vice-chairman, at a high-profile forum in the capital of Central China's Henan Province. Nineteen of them applied and were listed in Fortune magazine's ranking for 2006.

The Top 500 are mainly in the petroleum, petrochemical, automobile, banking, telecom and metallurgy sectors. On average, they have 16,074 employees.

However, major indices such as size, productivity, profitability, management ability and competitiveness show a significant gap between Corporate China and Fortune 500 companies, experts said.

The combined business income of China's top 500 accounts for only 9.3 per cent of the Fortune Global 500, and 19.4 per cent of the top 500 US firms, according to Feng.

According to the report, petrochemical, natural gas extraction, banking and ferrous metal industries reaped profits of 31.4 billion yuan (US$3.9 billion) in 2005, accounting for nearly half of the total profits of the Top 500.

Most of the global top 500 companies are in competitive sectors like the automobile industry and services, experts said.

"If China does not change the current pattern of economic development, which is dominated by energy-consuming and polluting heavy industries, it would have to compete with other nations for scarce natural resources," said Liu Jisheng, a professor at Tsinghua University's school of economics.

Ma Kai, minister of the State Development and Reform Commission, said that low energy efficiency continues to bedevil Chinese companies, limiting their competitiveness and returns.

Investment in R&D by 411 of China's top 500 enterprises accounts for only 1.45 per cent of their gross sales revenue, much lower than the 5 per cent international standard, Liu said.

Unlike global majors, which make profits through technology and IPR licensing, Chinese firms mainly rely on sales of products, resources and services, said Yang Du, a professor from Renmin University of China.

Liao Xiaoqi, vice-minister of commerce, urged companies to adopt innovation as the key component of their development.

Another strategy to become more powerful is to compete internationally, said Liao.


grong2
04.09.2006 14:36
#1315

Endre
China should transform its foreign trade growth perspectives

Vice Minister of Commerce Wei Jianguo says there is still great potential for China to expand her foreign trade because her trade with developing countries is still very low, however China still needs to speed up her growth of foreign trade.

In an interview with Economic Daily, Wei Jianguo said that by 2010 China's per capita income would reach US$ 2000 predicted that China would become the world's first or second greatest trade power by 2020. However currently, China's trade quality and efficiency are still not good enough, readjustments still needs to be made to growth perspectives.

Wei Jianguo says that there are fewer brand products in China's export which results in lower profit. 55% of export products come from processing and foreign enterprises. China still lacks her own core technology and sales network which can reap abundant profits. China is a big exporter of DVD players, but among the 57 key technologies in DVD, China only controls 9. Only less than 20% of export enterprises have their own trade marks and less than 10% of the enterprises have their own brands. China is strong in production capacity, but weak in exchange capability. Therefore China is a manufacturing center, but the big profit lies in circulation field for which China only occupies a small proportion and lies in the lower end of the international division of labor.

In import, China is a big buyer, but doesn't have the appropriate price setting. Due to this situation, the cost of resources and energy import becomes higher and higher. By November 2005, China had spent an extra US$ 30 billion on 42 types of resources and energy products such as crude oil, steel, plastic and iron ore which are under key supervision by China.

Under such circumstances, China must speed up her means for transforming foreign trade growth. Firstly, core competitiveness should be improved. There must also be independent innovation and international marketing capability. Chinese enterprises must develop their own brand and have their own intellectual property products in order to increase profit. China should develop her own multinational companies. Secondly, China's processing trade should further develop into deep processing and finish machining and change China's position in the international division of labor.

Thirdly, China should develop green trade by restricting export of resources and high energy consuming products in order to protect strategic resources and natural environment while importing resources, energy and technology.

Fourthly, China should strengthen resources import and export coordination mechanism in order to expand the long term trade proportion and complete the future market.

Fifthly, service trade should be developed. China has to adapt to the new trend of the international service trade to contract international service project and improve the domestic service level.

Wei Jianguo says that from this year onwards, trade surplus, frictions and foreign trade relations will be key issues that influence the healthy development of China's international market. China has entered into an area of trade frictions with Europe and America. The main sources of friction are various kinds of international trade protectionism. To deal with the frictions, China should take it as normal but also take it seriously. Chinese enterprises should consolidate their self-discipline, protect workers' and farmers' interests, avoid waging a price war, and when there is a case, they should actively respond to protect their own interests.

Wei Jianguo says China should readjust her relations with major trade partners and international organizations. The basic principle for dealing with such relations is peace, development and cooperation while taking big trade powers as key partners, putting surrounding countries first, taking developing countries as basis and multilateral trade as important platform. "China should be flexible, but also practical".

From now on, trade relations between China and other trade powers including the US, Europe and Japan will continue to be of strategic importance in China's foreign trade, the mainstream of common development will not change and the framework of co-existence of cooperation and competition will not change.

"The relations with developing countries need new adjustment. China and other developing countries will inevitably have a competitive relationship with each other for example in the textile industry. China's development will bring about some pressure for other developing countries. Therefore, we must continue to keep and develop friendly relations with them and promote common development", says Wei Jianguo.

The vice minister says that China will actively expand the integrated effect of policies in foreign aid, resource development, expanding import and debt reduction or cancellation. Trade frictions with developing countries need more attention and trade barriers should be eliminated in order to achieve a win-win situation.

Wei Jianguo says that China needs to have new cooperation with bordering countries. The economic and trade relations should be strengthened and mutual trust be improved.

"In the long run, we should deal properly with relations between economic and political benefit, national and regional benefit, competition and cooperation, bordering countries and other trade partners."

China should also readjust relations with international organizations. With the improvement of China's economic strength, China needs to participate in making the international rules. China should change her passive role of accepting international rules into active participation in order to promote the establishment of a new just and rational international political and economic order.
grong2
07.09.2006 13:37
#1357

Endre
Foreign investors send back profits of 57.94 bln USD from China in five years

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, foreign investors remitted abroad profits of 57.94 billion U.S. dollars from China. Vice Minister of Commerce Yi Xiaozhun made the remarks in Shanghai Wednesday at an international symposium on China's entry into the WTO.

During the past five years, China imported goods worth 2.4 trillion U.S. dollars from other trade partners, he said. The figures show that China's economic growth provided a good opportunity for foreign investors and gave an impetus to the world economy, Yi said.

By the end of last June, 71 overseas banks had built branches in China, and they were allowed to provide Renminbi services for institutional clients in 25 cities, according to figures from the Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, 23 joint-venture fund management companies and seven joint-venture securities companies had been established in the country.

According to China's commitment to the WTO, it will fully open its financial market by the end of this year. Figures from the World Bank show that since China's accession to the WTO, its economy has contributed 13 percent to the global economic growth.
grong2
07.09.2006 13:38
#1358

Endre
China, engine of world economic growth



The world economy is expected to log solid growth, which will be likely to clock in approximately five percent increase in 2006 and 2007, said Rodrigo Rato, chairman of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while addressing the Brookings Institution, a leading think-tank, on Sept. 5. He also referred to China and India in his speech as important "engines" of world economic growth.

A host of growth points have emerged in the world economy, Rato acknowledged, despite a cool-down in the of the U.S. economy. Apart from the "engines" of China and India, Europe and Japan are recovering economically and the areas south of the Sahara Desert in Africa will maintain an economic growth momentum these two years.

IMF projected the world economic growth at 4.9 percent this year and at 4.7 percent in 2007 in its original April report. Rato's September 5 speech, however, has revised the IMF previous prediction with an optimistic outlook for global economic growth.

Meanwhile, Rato warned in his speech that the global economy is facing more challenges than a year ago, resulting mainly from, among other factors, still higher oil prices, greater possibility of inflation pickup and the imbalance between trade and investment. Consequently, Rato prompted all the nations around the world to get prepared to address these challenges.
grong2
07.09.2006 14:40
#1360

Endre
China intervenes in Zambian election

The Chinese government has intervened in Zambia’s upcoming presidential election in a forceful sign of the commodity-hungry country’s growing economic and political clout in Africa.

Li Baodong, China’s ambassador in Lusaka, said Beijing might cut diplomatic relations with Zambia if voters elected Michael Sata, an opposition candidate, as president, Zambian media reported on Tuesday. His remarks are the first sign of overt political. interference by China in African affairs in decades, reflecting Beijing’s rapidly expanding role as an investor on the continent and as a client for long-term supplies of raw materials. China is a leading investor in Zambian copper, the country’s biggest export product by value.

China has invested billions of dollars in Africa in recent years, rivalling the US as it does so, and Chinese trade with the continent has quadrupled since the start of the decade, mainly through purchases of crude oil.

In Zambia alone Chinese companies are believed to have ploughed more than $300m into copper and other industries.

Mr Sata is challenging Levy Mwanawasa, the incumbent president, in the September 28 election. Mr Sata has been quoted calling Taiwan a “sovereign state,” angering China, and has also spoken out against Chinese labour practices in Zambia. Recognition of Taiwan would mean turning away from the country’s ties with Beijing.

Most African countries have thrown in their lot with China, leaving only a handful of governments maintaining official relations with Taiwan. Zambian media also reported that Mr Sata, currently running second to Mr Mwanawasa in opinion polls, had met Taiwanese businessmen.

The Times of Zambia on Tuesday quoted Mr Li saying Chinese investors were “scared” to come to Zambia because of Mr Sata’s “unfortunate” remarks. If Mr Sata won and established relations with Taiwan, Beijing might think of cutting its relations, the newspaper reported.

“Chinese investors in mining, construction and tourism have put on hold further investments in Zambia until the uncertainty surrounding our bilateral relations with Zambia is cleared,” the state-owned Zambia Daily Mail quoted Mr Li as saying.

In Zambia several mineworkers were shot and injured in July after a violent protest at Chinese-owned Chambishi Mining. There are conflicting reports on whether Chinese managers or Zambian police shot the workers.
grong2
08.09.2006 13:19
#1367

Endre
After years of short-term speculation in the financial markets, Chinese are starting to shift toward long-term investment, promising growth for the fledgling fund management industry, the head of a major foreign-invested fund house in China said on Friday.


A bear market in Chinese equities early this decade deterred many people from putting their money in stocks for long periods, said Steve Lee, Chief Executive of HSBC Jintrust Fund Management Co. Ltd.

But he said fund managers see opportunities flowing from the recovery in the the benchmark Shanghai stock index <.SSEC>, which is up 44 percent so far this year, as some investors take a longer view.

"More and more people are now relying on expertise (that) fund managers have, as they start to have a new conception of risk and investment," Lee said.
Authorities' efforts to list some of China's top companies in Shanghai this year, such as financial giant Bank of China (601988.SS: )(3988.HK: ), are helping to attract long-term money to stocks, Lee said.

So is a programme to clear a $250 billion backlog of state-held, non-tradeable shares in listed companies. That backlog is expected to be largely gone by the end of this year.

China, with some $2 trillion in personal savings -- much of it now parked in low-yielding bank deposits -- holds vast potential for the fund management industry. Official data show that funds under management have ballooned to about $65 billion from virtually zero six years ago.
OldNick
09.09.2006 10:07
#4187

Endre
Selv om det slakker litt av på ettersommeren, er bilmarkedet i Kina fortsatt relativt hett. Større konkurranse er med og sørger for det.

Vi har kunnet lese at Kina satser tungt på utbygging av motorveinett, slik Tyskland gjorde for 70 år siden og USA for over 50 år siden. I alle disse case'ene er infrastrukturutbygging motoren i boom'en.

Om 15-20 år har Kina lengre motorveinett enn USA.

Fortsatt er bilparken i Kina relativt beskjeden (25-30 mill. enheter), og årlig salg kun 30% av USA's.

Hvis veksten fortsetter med si 20%/år, vil Kina ta igjen USA om 7 år (årlig salg), mens det vil ta 25-30 år før de tar de igjen i totalt antall (>200 mill.)

Av de 7 mill. fpd råolje Kina bruker, går kun en mindre del til drivstoff, mens i USA går 45% av de 21 mill. fpd de bruker til bensin (ca. 55-60% til drivstoff totalt).


Car sales jump 23.4%

Jin Jing, ShanghaiDaily.com
2006-09-08

CHINA'S car sales picked up 23.4 percent in August year on year after July's slowdown, leading to talk of a possible sales boom in the second half.

Carmakers sold 361,294 units - cars, sports utility vehicles, multipurpose vehicles and mini buses - last month, according to the Union of National Passenger Car Market Information yesterday.

Sales advanced 11 percent over July, which has been the worst month for car purchases thus far this year. With a total of 280,000 units, sales for July dropped 12.3 percent from June.

Total passenger car sales for the first eight months rose 25 percent to 3.05 million from a year earlier, the union said. The increase was 3 percentage points lower than that of the first seven months.

"The sales increase didn't meet carmakers' expectations, and the market continues to see flat sales after a spurt before June," said Rao Da, secretary of the union.

Sales in August were lower than the average monthly sales of about 400,000 units for this year.

"Since sales rebounded at the end of August, we are still optimistic they will increase starting in September before the National Day holiday."

Rao predicted that September sales will jump 10 percent from August and estimated a year-on-year 20 percent sales jump for the month.

Joint ventures grabbed a bigger market share last month with large price reductions.

Price discounts also contributed to the increase during the traditionally weak sales period, Rao said. The prices of Honda's Accord, Passat Ling Yu from Volkswagen, Ford's Mondeo and Nissan's Teana has dropped between 5,000 yuan (US$625) and 15,000 yuan since July.
grong2
09.09.2006 14:55
#1374

Endre
Roughly samme nyheten som over - noe annerledes tall:

China's auto production, sales up 25 pct in first 8 months

China's automobile production and sales both shot up 25 percent in the first eight months of the year, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Friday.

The country produced 4.64 million vehicles between January and August, an increase of 25.37 percent. Sales surged by 24.58 percent in the same period to hit 4.53 million units. The strong growth is mainly driven by dynamic growth in the passenger vehicle market, particularly sedans, the association said.

In the first eight months of the year, China produced 3.33 million passenger vehicles and sold 3.23 million units, rising 33 percent and 32 percent, respectively. The production and sale of sedans grew over 40 percent. The top 10 manufacturers are the Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp, FAW, the Dongfeng Motor Corp, Chang'an, Beijing Automotive Industry Corp, Cherry, Harbin Aircraft, the Guangzhou Automotive Industry Corp, Geely and Brilliance.

They sold a total of 3.80 million units, accounting for 83.83 percent of the market share.
grong2
11.09.2006 13:57
#1376

Endre
Matforsyningen i India og Kina er interessant å holde et øye til. De vil ikke klare å være selvforsynte på alle områder.

India Buys $382 Million of Wheat, to Be Biggest Buyer

India bought $382 million of wheat to plug a domestic shortage, its fifth purchase since February, setting it on course to become the world's biggest buyer of the grain this year.

``Strong demand and thin supplies are expected to keep spot wheat markets bullish,'' Man Financial Commodities India Ltd. said in a note to clients today. ``Most traders indicate that domestic supply is close to over. There will be strong reliance on wheat imports to meet domestic requirement going forward.''

Cargill Inc., the largest U.S. agricultural company, Agrico Trade & Finance SA, Louis Dreyfus Corp. and India's Adani Global were among suppliers that bid for the 1.67 million ton contract. The bidders offered to sell at between $223.75 a ton and $270 a ton, the government official said Sept. 5.

grong2
11.09.2006 20:18
#1381

Endre
Noen interessante linker som belyser Mao og hans arv i Kina:

Link
grong2
12.09.2006 11:23
#1393

Endre
China pledges concrete measures for sustainable water use



Chinese Vice-Premier Zeng Peiyan said on Sunday that the government will make greater efforts to promote water efficiency and control widespread water pollution.

He made the remarks at the opening of the Fifth World Water Congress that attracted over 3,000 policy makers, experts and business leaders from across the world.

Saving and protecting the water resources is particularly important to a nation like China, which holds less water resources per capita than the world average and faces a rising demand from accelerating industrialization and urbanization, the vice-premier said.

Zeng said China needs to step up its water-saving efforts, including widening the use of water-saving irrigation technologies, compulsory promotion of water-saving equipment and utensils and use of recycled water.

Priority will be given to the supply of safe drinking water to China's rural residents, one third of whom are still struggling with water shortages or polluted water sources, he said.

Concrete measures will be taken to tackle water pollution. The vice-premier said China aims to cut its water pollutant discharges as defined by chemical oxygen demand (COD) by at least 10 percent within five years.

By 2010, 70 percent of the waste water in Chinese cities will be treated before being discharged into the environment, he said.

Zeng also pledged further reforms to the water supply systems, a key part of which is to introduce competition in the sector and allow private capital, including foreign capital, to invest in the water supply and sewage treatment facilities.

The Fifth World Water Congress is co-hosted by China's Ministry of Construction and the International Water Association (IWA), the most authoritative association in the world water industry.

The theme of this year's congress is "sustainable management of water resources". It closes on Thursday.
grong2
13.09.2006 12:56
#1419

Endre
Som nevnt tidligere på denne topic'en så er det vondt å se med egne øyne hvordan naturen raseres i Kina. (I Los Angeles, USA, har målinger stadfestet at 25 % av forurensingen i byen kommer fra Kina!)

China ‘faces $136bn pollution clean-up’

China has announced the first results of a long-term project to quantify the impact of growing pollution on the economy, estimating that environmental damage cost the equivalent of 3 per cent of economic output in 2004.

The announcement also said on Thursday it would cost China about Rmb1,080bn ($136bn, €106bn, £72bn) to clean up the deteriorating environment, equal to about 7 per cent of gross domestic product that year.

“As China’s GDP per capita reaches the range of $1,000-$3,000, society has experienced frequent conflicts and can no longer bear the social problems caused by environmental pollution,” said the joint statement announcing the first results of the long-term project.

“Although [China’s] brand of high consumption, high pollution and high-risk development has had a certain historical use, our economy has now hit a bottleneck for resource and energy use.”

Link
grong2
15.09.2006 21:04
#1472

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New Chinese tax rules aim to reduce trade surplus

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China has modified its tax system to promote a transition from simple manufactured exports to more sophisticated ones, according to a media report.
The changes, which go into effect Friday, are intended to "promote balanced development of imports and exports," according to a Finance Ministry statement quoted in a story in The Wall Street Journal's Asian online edition.

The policy appears to be aimed at reducing China's massive trade surplus, which is a source of friction with trading partners including the U.S. and the European Union., and has also been blamed for contributing to excess liquidity in the Chinese economy.
In August, China reported a record trade surplus of $18.8 billion. The 2006 trade surplus is expected to surpass last year's mark of $101.9 billion.
The government aims to encourage higher value-added export industries by changing the way it allocates rebates from a 17% value-added tax which applies to most goods produced in China. Rebates for sectors including textiles, furniture and steel will be slashed, while those for makers of IT products, pharmaceuticals and biotech goods will be raised, the Journal reported.
Under the new rules, steel makers will only be rebated 8% of the 17% levy, compared to 11% before. Textile and furniture makers' rebates will be cut to 11%, from 13%.
Producers of IT products, on the other hand, will now have their entire 17% returned, compared to 13% before. Heavy equipment makers will also receive a full refund.
But experts are skeptical about the effectiveness of the new tax rules. "It won't fundamentally change the issue [of China's trade surplus]," the Journal quoted Frank F.X. Gong, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan Securities, as saying.
grong2
15.09.2006 21:21
#1473

Endre
Paulson: Prosperity of US and China tied together

WASHINGTON: The Bush administration will oppose efforts in Congress to penalize China for a trade surplus with the United States, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson stressed here on Wednesday.

"Protectionist policies do not work and the collateral damage from these policies is high," said Paulson while delivering his first speech on the international economy since he took up the post in July.

"By closing off competition and blocking the forces of change, protectionism reduces the losses of the present by sacrificing the opportunities of the future," he said. "We will not heed the siren songs of protectionism and isolationism."

Paulson said that the prosperity of the United States and China is tied together in the global economy, and "how we work together on a host of bilateral and multilateral issues will have a significant impact on the health of the global economy."

He said that the United States must take a strategic view of its relationship with China.

"Both in China and in the United States, we must not allow ourselves to be captured by harmful political rhetoric or those who engage in political demagoguery," Paulson stated.

"Instead, we must realize that the US-Chinese relationship is truly generational and demands a long-term strategic economic engagement on our common issues of interest," he concluded.

The United States is China's largest export market and the second-largest trade partner. Sino-US trade volume reached US$211.6 billion in 2005 with China registering a surplus of US$114.2 billion.

In his speech, Paulson also said that the United States has nothing to fear from China's emergence as a global economic power.

"The tasks faced by Beijing are so daunting that the biggest risk we face is not that China will overtake the US, but that China won't move ahead with the reforms necessary to sustain its growth and to address the very serious problems facing the nation," he said.

The secretary will visit China next week after attending the September 19-20 annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Singapore.

During his stay in China, Paulson said that he will urge the Chinese Government to move more quickly to adopt economic reforms, including a more flexible currency.

Paulson, 60, was nominated in May to replace John Snow, who resigned on June 29. The former Goldman Sachs CEO, who was sworn in on July 10, has made more than 70 trips to China as head of the investment giant.

grong2
15.09.2006 21:21
#1474

Endre
EU replaces U.S. as biggest trading partner of China: CFIE chief

The EU replaced the United States as China's biggest trading partner last year, said Xu Kuangding, Chairman of the China Federation of Industrial Economics (CFIE) on Thursday.

As one of the keynote speakers at the opening of a Sino- European economic summit, Xu said Sino-European trade, with a volume of 217.3 billion U.S. dollars, has exceeded the Sino-U.S. trade volume by some 5.7 billion dollars.

European companies such as Airbus, Siemens, Nokia and Volkswagen, made the EU the fourth largest investor in China and China's most important supplier of technology, Xu said in a speech at the second Hamburg Summit -- "China meets Europe."

Speaking of EU's concern over intellectual property rights protection in China, Xu asked European business leaders to show a little more patience on this issue.

"Until fairly recently, China had a long history of having a largely agrarian-based economy where it was customary to try and learn from one's neighbors. The concept of intellectual property was therefore quite new to China's burgeoning industrial sector. " he said.

The Chamber of Commerce Hamburg, which initiated the summit, expected more than 350 economic, political and scientific leaders from both China and Europe to attend the event which will run until Friday.
grong2
15.09.2006 21:50
#1478

Endre
U.S. odd man out in China-Latin business

HAVANA (AFX) - China hopes to expand its growing economic and political clout at the Nonaligned Movement summit, influence that analysts say will come at the expense of the United States, which passed up a similar invitation to attend as an observer.

Led by China's Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Yang Jiechi, the Chinese delegation plans to hold bilateral meetings with a number of Latin American countries and strengthen China's ties to the region where its trade has soared. China's imports from Latin America quintupled to $20.3 billion and exports to the region tripled to $15.4 billion from 2000 to 2004, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The administration of President George W. Bush has declined to attend the summit, and a press officer at the U.S. Interests Section in Havana said it wouldn't comment on the Nonaligned Movement.

That's a mistake, according to Latin America analysts who have tracked declining U.S. influence in a region where it can no longer count on the unconditional support of political leaders, even though U.S. trade remains the most powerful engine for their economies.

"Bush likes to use the saying 'You're either with us or against us' and they are writing off the summit because they are non-aligned, which to them means they are not with the U.S.," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C.

The United States is wary of the region's more leftist governments, some of which have openly opposed Washington's economic prescriptions of economic growth through austerity measures, free trade deals and privatization. The region's economies have largely stabilized -- hyperinflation and crippling debts are mostly history. But poverty and unemployment remain huge problems, and many Latin Americans feel the Washington model failed to improve their lives.

Some analysts say the U.S. is out of touch, still trying to impose trade agreements that will make life even more difficult for the poor while raising the rhetoric about the dangers of populism in Venezuela, Bolivia and other countries.

Earlier this year, U.S. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld compared Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez to Adolf Hitler, and Bush worried publicly about the leadership of Bolivian President Evo Morales.

Chavez's response was telling: At an event with Fidel Castro in Havana in February, he noted the waning U.S. influence in the region and echoed Chinese revolutionary Mao Zedong's idea that capitalist countries were "paper tigers" to be challenged.

China paid little attention to Latin America until recently, and its commerce with the region still represents less than one percent of its collosal foreign trade, according to a Harvard University study commissioned by Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington research center. But now China is booming and looking to Latin America for the raw materials it needs to support its growth, and for new markets to sell to.

And unlike the United States, which often uses trade deals as political leverage, China has avoided political meddling, said Weisbrot, who predicts that U.S. commerce may have already peaked as a share of Latin America's economies, while their trade with China will grow substantially.

China, whose domestic consumption is expected to grow by $1.3 trillion in the next decade, is increasingly seen by the world's developing nations as both a source of investment and a mammoth emerging market.

China mainly exports machinery, televisions, computers and automobiles to Latin America. In exchange, it buys about 30 percent of its agricultural imports (mostly soy beans) from Argentina and Brazil, China's largest trading partner in the region, and is one of the top buyers of Chilean copper.

While some Chinese products such as textiles and electronics have made it difficult for some Latin American industries to compete, Chinese investments have made it easier for Argentina, Brazil and other countries to buy political independence with early payoffs of their national debts. "(The U.S. is) refusing to acknowledge the changes that are taking place in Latin America," Weisbrot said. "That's why they are losing influence so rapidly."

While the relationship is purely economic for most developing countries, Cuba, Bolivia and Venezuela see China as a counterweight to U.S. hegemony.

Relations between Cuba and China were tense during the Cold War, when the Caribbean island was strongly allied with the Soviet Union, but warmed after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 and Cuba lost its preferential trade and aid deals with the Soviet bloc. China is now Cuba's third-largest trading partner, with a trade exchange of $985 million in 2005. China invests primarly in Cuba's nickel industry as well as tourism, transportation and telecommunications.

"Without a doubt these relations have developed in the framework of our shared political ideology," Cuba's Economics Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez told reporters at the Nonaligned summit this week.

But Communist Cuba has a unique relationship with China -- which so far seems unwilling to raise political quarrels with the United States over Latin America, said Javier Corrales, a Latin America expert at Ahmerst College in Massachussetts.

"At the moment," he said, "what China is doing is not costly in its relations with the U.S."
dammerud
16.09.2006 21:14
#12678

Endre
Et av de viktigste elementer i utviklingen av Kina som en økonomisk kjempe er noe jeg opplevde da jeg reiste rundt i Kina.

En intens opplæring i engelsk, både rettet mot O.L i Beijing
(funksjonærer,politi,drosjesjåfører og forretningsmenn,skole osv.)

Ca 100 000 kinesiske studenter(utvalgte) som studerer i engelsktalende land.

Kommunistpartiet er ikke lenger et kommunistisk, men et pragmatisk parti med velutdannede teknokrater som må "levere" !!!

Maotiden er over.

Mye henger igjen.

I en båttur i det store Kanalsystemet sør for Shanghai møtte jeg tusener av elvebåter lastet med Kull,kull og atter kull samt sand,murstein osv.

Jan
dow
16.09.2006 21:18
#10088

Endre
Et selskap som hadde IPO på Nasdaq forrige uke spesialiserer seg på å lære kinesere engelsk. Tror den steg 50% første dagen.:-)

Forøvrig har Japanere og Sør Koreanere klart seg bra til tross for at de er håpløse i engelsk, det samme kan vi si om enkelte land i Europa.


[Endret 16.09.06 21:22 av dow]
grong2
17.09.2006 11:39
#1484

Endre
Denne kan sees opp i mot Dow's artikkel fra The Economist postet på Olje topic'en:

Foreign trade in E. China province grows 24.7 percent in Jan.-Aug.

The economically booming Shandong Province in east China recorded 74.83 billion U.S. dollars in foreign trade in the first eight months of this year, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.7 percent.

In August alone, Shandong's foreign trade hit 10.55 billion U.S. dollars, up 28.9 percent. This was the first time for the province's external trade volume to exceed the 10-billion-U.S.-dollars mark, local customs sources said.

The fast growing local economy drove up demand for raw materials. Between January and August, Shandong's arrivals of raw materials, including crude oil, iron ore, cotton and soy bean, went up 40.9 percent year-on-year to 15.37 billion U.S. dollars worth, accounting for 42.3 percent of the province's total imports for the eight-month period.
Utmothavet
17.09.2006 12:37
#7607

Endre
DN
Kina får mer makt i IMF

Kina, Sør-Korea, Mexico og Tyrkia skal få økt innflytelse i Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF), mener IMFs finanskomité.
Alle er lavinntektsland med sterk økonomisk vekst.

Reformen ble vedtatt av finanskomiteen på et møte i Singapore søndag. Ifølge Storbritannias finansminister Gordon Brown er det den største reformen i IMF på 60 år.

Reformen må nå godkjennes av IMFs 184 medlemsland før den kan iverksettes. En endelig avgjørelse er ventet tirsdag.

Enkelte europeiske land og utviklingsland har uttrykt misnøye med reformforslaget. Lørdag varslet også Argentina, Brasil, India og Egypt at de vil ha en utsettelse slik at det kan utarbeides en reform som «virkelig gjenspeiler medlemslandenes økonomiske ståsted».

Til nå har maktfordelingen i IMF vært preget av det økonomiske landskapet som rådet etter annen verdenskrig.

Publisert: 17.09.2006 - 11:20
gazza
17.09.2006 13:40
#1211

Endre
Har bekjentskap som importerer luksusvarer fra Kina. Alt de mottar er innpakt i plast, og det er faktisk et tykt lag med sot som følger med. Før eller siden må de gjøre noe med fritt utslipp der også når de begynner å krepere som fluer!!!
Utmothavet
17.09.2006 14:41
#7608

Endre
gazza
Importerer mye fra Kina - er i Kina flere ganger i året :-)

Har ikke noe av det problemer som du beskriver.
grong2
17.09.2006 16:03
#1486

Endre
Utmothavet [7608] - hvor i Kina er det du har reist hvor forurensing ikke er et problem?
gazza
17.09.2006 18:20
#1213

Endre
Utmothavet, tja, vet ikke mer enn hva jeg er blitt fortalt. De tjener jo sinnsykt med penger på businessen sin. Men når de kommer hjem sier de at vi vet ikke hvor godt vi har det i dette landet. Har sett endel reisebrev fra Kina, og synest det er mye grått og trist og se. Men Kina er jo stort da, så bombastisk er jeg ikke. Jobber sjøl i aluminiumsindustrien og synest det er tragisk at vi taper for land som slipper kyoto-avtaler og kan slippe gørra fritt ut. Vi er faktisk i verdenstoppen i produktivitet og lager verdens "reneste" aluminium, men hva hjelper det når globaliseringen kun gjelder økonomi og ikke miljø? Tror kineserne til slutt sager av den greinen de sitter på, idag er det nemlig slik at direktøren på en fabrikk med 1000 ansatte tjener like mye som alle arbeiderne til sammen. Dette vil man ikke finne seg i i lengden og i hvert fall ikke når man dør av lungesykdommer i ung alder. Idag utnytter vi Kina, vi får billige varer fra dem og de kjøper dyr olje fra oss, vi har bukten i begge ender.........
Utmothavet
17.09.2006 20:25
#7609

Endre
gazza
Skal ikke gå i dybden - men forurensing i Kina er et problem. MEN England hadde for 10 år siden like stort problem som Kina har i dag. Kina har sett størst fokus på spillvann rensing fra industrien (bedre en i Norge) - og mindre på luft rensing.

Varer som står på lager 2-6 mnd før skipning blir "svart" - men varer jeg kjøper, blir skipet innen 1-2 uker. Her kan være en grunn, - men noen plasser i Kina er det opplagt mere "svart industri røyk" en andre plasser. Mest besøker jeg "Shanghai distriktet" (lite i byen).... Vist en kjører 3-4 timer med bil utenfor byen, - er det mere "gammel statlig industri" som ikke her rensing av noen betydning.

Kullkraft er fortsatt stor andel av energi produksjonen, forurensende !!!
I Kina kan du noen steder kjøpe frokost, Lunch og middag "ute" for en timeslønn . Det kan vi ikke i Norge :-0
grong2
18.09.2006 14:00
#1490

Endre
China's B Shares Jump on Speculation of Merger With A Shares

Sept. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Shanghai's foreign-currency B-share indexes surged by the most in more than four years today on speculation the stocks will be merged with local-currency A shares. Shenzhen's had their biggest gain in almost three years.

``There are rumors going around the market that the securities regulator is studying a merger between A and B shares,'' said Zhang Qi, a market analyst with Haitong Securities Co. in Shanghai. ``If a merger takes place, holders of B shares will benefit.''

The Shanghai B-Share Index jumped 8.674, or 9.7 percent, to 98.551 at the 3 p.m. local-time close, the biggest advance since June 24, 2002. The Shenzhen B-Share Index surged 23.372, or 8 percent, to 314.383, the largest gain since Oct. 10, 2003. Both measures had their highest closes since May 22.

China's B shares, which can only be bought and sold by domestic individuals and overseas investors, are traded in U.S. dollars in Shanghai and Hong Kong dollars in Shenzhen. Zhang estimates they trade at an average 50 percent discount to yuan- denominated A shares and predicts a merger will bring B-share valuations more in to line with more liquid A shares.

Liu Fuhua, a media communication official with the China Securities Regulatory Commission, declined to comment.

Among the 109 companies with B shares trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, 70 surged by the 10 percent ceiling limit today.

Shares Surge

Shanghai Zhenhua Port Machinery Co., China's biggest maker of cranes used to load and unload ship container cargoes, surged 9.3 U.S. cents, or 10 percent, to US$1.023. Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., a developer in Shanghai's financial district, soared 6.6 U.S. cents, or 10 percent, to 72.2 U.S. cents.

Shandong Airlines Co., partially owned by China's biggest international carrier Air China Ltd., jumped 14 Hong Kong cents, or 10 percent, to HK$1.49 in Shenzhen.

Zhou Qinye, executive vice president of the Shanghai Stock Exchange said in a January interview that the exchange was looking to merge foreign-currency B shares and yuan A shares this year via share buybacks or stock swaps.

Even after today's surge, B shares are cheaper relative to earnings than their A share counterparts. B shares of Lujiazui are trading at 15 times estimated earnings, compared with 21 times for the company's A shares.

The B-share market, initially restricted to just foreign investors, was opened to locals in 2001 after overseas interest waned, hurt partly by the growth of H shares sold by mainland companies in Hong Kong. In 2003, China allowed selected overseas institutions to start buying A shares under the qualified foreign institutional investor, or QFII, program.
grong2
22.09.2006 11:06
#1555

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Vietnam, With 49 Stocks, Attracts Investors to `Emerging China'

Vietnamese stocks are Asia's best performers this year and the International Monetary Fund's chief economist is touting the country as an ``emerging China.''

International investors, who have had too few stocks to select from, may soon gain choices in Vietnam. Companies are listing as the communist nation expands its two-decade-long move to a capitalist system. Entry into the World Trade Organization this year may encourage companies to follow the lead of Intel Corp. and Ford Motor Co. and invest in Vietnam.

The stock exchange, the six-year-old Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center, lists 49 stocks with a market value of $3.1 billion, according to Vietcombank Securities Co. Neighboring Thailand has 485 listings with a value of $132.3 billion.

``As more companies list on the stock market, I'd expect interest in Vietnam, underpinned by strong growth and foreign direct investment flows, to steadily increase,'' said Brad Aham, who manages the $1.7 billion SSgA Emerging Markets Fund at State Street Global Advisors in Boston.

An average of just $6.6 million worth of Vietnamese shares traded daily in the past three months, compared with $314 million in Thailand and $3.2 billion in Hong Kong, Bloomberg data show.

The Vietnam Stock Index has surged 66 percent this year in dollar terms, the most of 413 Asian indexes tracked by Bloomberg. Chinese indexes are the next-best performers.

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint-Stock Bank, known as Sacombank, in July became the first lender to trade on the stock exchange, raising the market's value by 50 percent. Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam will sell shares next year, followed by Mekong Delta Housing Bank, according to Tran Dac Sinh, director of the Trading Center.

The Next China?

The stock market started in July 2000 with just two listed companies and a total value of 270 billion dong ($16.8 million).

The International Monetary Fund's Chief Economist Raghuram Rajan said at a Sept. 14 news conference in Singapore that Vietnam ``was considered by many to be the `emerging China,''' owing to its ``relatively strong rates of growth.''

The IMF forecasts 7.8 percent growth this year, the fastest of any developing Southeast Asian economy, according to the organization's Web site, while predicting China will grow 10 percent this year. Standard & Poor's this month raised Vietnam's credit rating to two levels below investment grade, citing the nation's economic growth potential and commitment to market- oriented policies.

`Critical Mass'

Christopher Wood, a strategist at CLSA Ltd., recommends investors buy into Vietnam.

``It's a very exciting story,'' Wood, voted the second-best Asian strategist in an Institutional Investor survey this year, said in an interview at a CLSA investor conference in Hong Kong last week. It featured a seminar on investing in Vietnam.

``In the next couple of years, we might see the Vietnamese stock market reach critical mass as more companies are listed,'' Wood said. ``The stock market program is finally coming to fruition.'' He recommends investors put 3 percent of an Asia- excluding-Japan portfolio in Vietnam.

At the moment, though, investing in the nation's stock market remains difficult for international investors, who typically seek companies with enough shares trading so that they can buy and sell without moving the stock price dramatically. By contrast with Vietnam, China has 1,381 listed companies in two markets, with a value of $650 billion.

``Vietnam is not on our radar screen at the moment because there isn't enough liquidity for us,'' said London-based Nick Timberlake, who manages the $221 million HSBC Global Emerging Markets Equity fund.

New Listings

Overseas investors are restricted to a 49 percent stake in companies listed on the Ho Chi Minh City bourse and a 30 percent holding in Sacombank. What's more, investors seeking Vietnamese stocks must do so through a securities company registered domestically and must have local currency bank accounts.

One avenue for foreign investors is through Vietnam funds incorporated outside the country, such as the $193 million Vietnam Growth Fund, which is based in the Cayman Islands, and the $96 million Vietnam Dragon Fund, based in Bermuda. Both are managed by Ho Chi Minh City-based Dragon Capital Management Ltd.

The number of targets on Vietnam's exchange is picking up as the government sells shares in state-controlled companies. Vietnam in the next four years plans to increase the value of its stock market to between 20 percent and 30 percent of gross domestic product from 6 percent, Tran from the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Trading Center said in August.

Foreign Investment

That would lift the stock market's value to as much as $24 billion, based on Sinh's estimate of GDP reaching $80 billion by 2010. Besides Bank for Foreign Trade and Mekong Delta Housing Bank, companies including Electricity of Vietnam and Vietnam Post & Telecommunications Corp. will sell shares by 2010, Sinh said. All the companies are government-owned.

The government, which has cut poverty in half since 1993, is aiming to move the country out of the ranks of the world's lower- income nations by 2010.

Intel, the world's biggest chipmaker, said this year it would invest as much as $605 million in a semiconductor test and assembly plant in the Ho Chi Minh City area, the biggest investment in Vietnam by a U.S. company. Ford, the second-biggest U.S. carmaker by sales, has invested $100 million in an assembly plant in the Hanoi area in the past decade.

Mark Mobius, who oversees about $30 billion in emerging market equities at Templeton Asset Management, said his funds are ready to pour money into Vietnam. Templeton owns an apartment complex in Hanoi.

``If we were to get more involved in Vietnam we would want a purer exposure'' through equities, Mobius said. ``Vietnam is still rath
grong2
26.09.2006 09:44
#1584

Endre
Can China win a Western game?

CAMARET-SUR-AYGUES, France Yi Liu has spent five long years trying to persuade Europeans that Chinese tomatoes can match the quality of produce ripened in the Provencal sun - and at a lower price.

Today, Liu's triumph seems complete: Le Cabanon, a struggling farm cooperative he bought two years ago, turns out ketchups and sauces that sell under French brand names like Ducros and Masque d'Or. And even local chefs agree that the cooperative's products taste as good as ever despite the fact that a crucial ingredient - processed tomato concentrate - is now shipped several thousand kilometers from Liu's factories in the Chinese far west.

Still, the picture of success is not all it seems. Liu's company, Xinjiang Chalkis of Urumqi, China, is losing about €3 million, or $3.8 million, a year on Le Cabanon, his first European acquisition, mainly because efforts to run the factory more efficiently are taking longer than expected. On top of that, Liu already has endured two strikes, negotiations with unions and restrictions on working hours that he says make it impossible to fill some last-minute orders from clients.

"We can try and find a new way for a French company to survive," said Liu, 49. "We don't think that in France we can get too much profit."

Liu's experience sums up the way Chinese owners are struggling to impress their vision of how to do business on skeptical - and sometimes defiant - locals as Chinese businesspeople start out on a period of what is likely to be relentless expansion through mergers and acquisitions. In their eagerness to build global businesses, Chinese industrialists have spent several billion dollars over recent years to buy energy and technology companies - and even food and cosmetics makers.

The numbers are still relatively small: purchases by Chinese companies abroad in 2004 were worth $1.1 billion, about one-tenth of the value of purchases abroad made by Singapore-based companies and about one-fifteenth of the value of purchases made by French companies abroad that year, according to figures from the UN Conference on Trade and Development.

The Chinese effort has been worldwide, but France has been a particular target, as it offers brands with cachet and a large home market at the heart of the world's largest trade bloc, the European Union.

As Chinese entrepreneurs learn how to make everything from tomato sauces to television screens, however, they are encountering challenges less familiar to their home-grown form of capitalism, like labor laws that are relatively generous to employees and workers who challenge superiors. Even as bosses like Liu overcome initial challenges, the lesson from France may be that China's ambitions to be an industrial power beyond its own borders will take more time than people expect.

Chinese companies investing abroad "have everything to learn - it's a kind of apprenticeship," said Jean-François Huchet, an associate professor at the University of Rennes in France.

One thing Chinese executives do not need to learn is mathematics. The cost of tomato concentrate made in China and imported into Europe is about €550 a ton after processing, shipping and taxes, whereas the concentrate produced in France costs more than €650 a ton. The difference is mainly the cost of labor and regulations in France. Because of their access to less expensive raw materials, Chinese owners abroad can often operate at a lower cost than locals.

But low cost is not everything, and one gap in the knowledge of many Chinese executives, management experts say, is a lack of experience at guiding businesses through wrenching transformations. There are not enough of them who really understand countries like France and too few French executives who want to work for Chinese companies, said Bernard Gainnier, who leads the China business group for PricewaterhouseCoopers in Paris.

"The French law is the French law and you're not going to change that," Gainnier said. "But you can change a lot of things if you're very clear about what you want to achieve and you work as a team - but that's definitely more difficult for a Chinese manager than a French manager."

Chinese entrepreneurs are frequently surprised that Europeans often allow workers' rights to trump managers' rights and that many farmers still benefit from quotas and price controls - particularly at a time Europeans are accusing the government in Beijing of meddling in industries from car parts to leather shoes.

"The biggest difficulty has been the culture shock," Liu said during a recent interview, puffing on a Panda cigarette wedged into a polished pipe made from a rare Chinese coral.

"In China the employees hope to work more because if they work more they will be paid more," he said. "But in France, they don't want to be paid more." They want "time to relax, to have holidays," he said.

Mer på denne linken:

Link
OldNick
27.09.2006 08:52
#4345

Endre
Fin oversiktsartikkel over Kina's higen etter oljereserver (klippet fra oljepris-topic)

China's Oil Deals With Iran, Myanmar Put It at Odds With U.S.

By William Mellor and Le-Min Lim

Sept. 27, 2006 (Bloomberg)



[Endret 27.09.06 08:52 av OldNick]
grong2
27.09.2006 11:46
#1601

Endre
China reaps big fruits for future Internet

China has successfully built its next generation Internet with Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPv6), replacing Internet Protocol Version 4(IPv4), to become the world leader in this field.

China's next generation Internet, or CNGI, has proposed a new search system structure and developed a special method for the transition between the two Internet generations. It has present seven draft standards to the International Internet Organization. In developing the CNGI, China built the world's first IPv6-only network and for the first time used domestic IPv6 routers, the core Internet components in the national network.

The CNGI-CERNET2/6IX passed an examination by an expert team organized by the Ministry of Education at Tsinghua University over the weekend. Experts say the network is world standard and its three innovations will give China more clout in this field. China launched the CNGI project in 2003 and in 2005 completed its first next generation internet, the CNGI-CERNET2.

The success of the CNGI's core network has freed China from dependence on foreign key internet technologies and products and ensured national information security.

Proposed in the mid-1990s, it is estimated that the next generation Internet will transmit information 1000 times faster, at a speed of 40 gigabytes per second.
grong2
29.09.2006 23:32
#1627

Endre
NEW DELHI (XFN-ASIA) - India's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.9 pct in the first quarter to June, helped by strong performances in the manufacturing, utility and construction sectors, official data showed.

The fiscal first-quarter growth came in above the forecasts of analysts, which were for a growth of 8.5 to 8.7 pct.
grong2
01.10.2006 12:22
#1639

Endre
Schumer, Graham Drop Legislation to Pressure China With Tariffs

Sept. 29 -- Two senators agreed to drop their legislation to apply tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. under pressure from the Bush administration.

The senators, Democrat Charles Schumer of New York and Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, had been calling for a Senate vote this week on the measure in an effort to force China to raise the value of its currency. A weak currency makes its products cheaper on world markets.

They changed their minds yesterday under urging from President George W. Bush, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and companies such as Citigroup Inc. and General Electric Co., who said they risked provoking retaliation by China and undermining a dialogue with China that Paulson just began.

``It's a win for the secretary of Treasury,'' said Nicholas Lardy, a fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington and an expert on China. Paulson said ``he had to be given an opportunity to produce results,'' Lardy said.

Graham said he was asked by Bush yesterday not to force a vote on his bill. He said he and Schumer will work on a new measure next year to prod the Chinese without running afoul of international trade rules, which prohibit countries from raising duties on any one country. The new legislation would comply with World Trade Organization rules, ``have bite and will become law if China continues down its current path,'' Graham said.

``The bottom line is that this bill was designed as a wake- up call, and in that it has been a rousing success,'' Schumer said at a news conference yesterday. ``We felt it's now time to refine our instrument and pass some legislation that will force the Chinese to go the rest of the way.''

Currency Appreciated

China's currency has appreciated almost 5 percent over the past 15 months, Schumer said. Still, the Chinese understood that Schumer's bill, which would have imposed tariffs of 27.5 percent, would never become law, Lardy said. ``My impression is that they had basically discounted Schumer for months,'' he said.

Schumer and Graham said they will now work with Senators Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican and chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, and Max Baucus of Montana, the top Democrat on the finance committee, to come up with new legislation early next year. They didn't provide details.

Schumer said last week he didn't envision that the tariff bill would become law. Rather, it was meant to protest what the lawmakers call China's policy of artificially depressing the value of its currency, the yuan.

Frist Pledged

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Tennessee Republican, had pledged to allow a vote on the measure this week if Schumer and Graham demanded it after they won a procedural vote on the measure last year. This is the fourth time those senators opted not to force the issue each time a vote neared.

The bill had little chance of becoming a law this year because there was no companion vote scheduled in the House of Representatives. Still, Paulson met this week with Schumer and Graham to try to persuade them to delay a vote.

``I'm doing my best job to make the case to Chuck Schumer and Lindsey Graham that their bill wouldn't help anything, and that's not the right way to negotiate with China,'' Paulson said Sept. 27 in a speech to the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington.

Paulson and Wu Yi, China's vice premier, agreed Sept. 20 in Beijing to meet twice a year for talks on economic relations, the first such arrangement between the two countries. Paulson said he hoped the U.S. could use the dialogue to persuade China to allow the yuan to appreciate and open its capital markets.

Trade Deficit

Representatives for manufacturers say lawmakers need to take some action to counteract a de facto subsidy supporting Chinese exports. The NAM, the largest U.S. manufacturers' group, said yesterday it started a task force focused on China's lack of progress toward establishing a freely traded currency. The U.S. trade deficit surged to an unprecedented $68 billion in July, the Commerce Department said this month. The shortfall with China was $19.6 billion, close to an all-time high.

``The Chinese are driving a truck through a loophole in the global trading system,'' said Peter Morici, an economist at the University of Maryland at College Park. ``The United States and Europeans are not going to put up with it forever.''

China revalued the yuan in July 2005 and allowed it to strengthen or weaken by a maximum of 0.3 percent against the dollar each day. The yuan, a denomination of China's currency the renmimbi, gained 0.07 percent to 7.8965 against the dollar at 5:30 p.m. yesterday in Shanghai, according to the Web site of the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The currency has strengthened 2.6 percent since July last year and 0.7 percent this month. In July of last year, its value was raised 2.1 percent and its peg reworked.
OldNick
02.10.2006 11:38
#4381

Endre
Og veksten fortsetter, foreløpig med uforminsket styrke.

Positivt at innenlands forbruk øker.

Central Bank Forecasts China's Growth

Central Bank Expects China's Economy to Grow by 10.5 Percent in 2006, Stronger Than Predicted


Oct. 1, 2006

BEIJING (AP) -- The central bank says China's economy should grow by 10.5 percent this year, state media reported Sunday, even stronger than the 10 percent predicted last week by the National Bureau of Statistics.

The People's Bank of China also projected growth for the first half of 2007 at 9.5 percent, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

China's economy grew 10.2 percent in 2005 and surged by 10.9 percent in the first half of 2006.

The bank also said China's high rate of domestic spending will continue to grow.

Growth in domestic investment and exports, however, will ease, Xinhua reported, blaming a slowing global economy and "rising trade frictions" for the impact on exports.

The United States has accused China of undervaluing its currency to promote export growth.

The People's Bank report also predicted continuing low Chinese inflation rates -- 1.5 percent in 2006 and 1.8 percent for the first half of 2007.

Last week, the deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics said China's economy would grow by 10 percent in 2006, while inflation would come in at about 2 percent.

The World Bank and other organizations have forecast China's 2006 economic growth at up to 10.4 percent.
OldNick
03.10.2006 19:45
#4391

Endre
China to surpass US in auto sales

PRESS TRUST OF INDIA

Beijing, October 2: China's automobile sales are expected to reach nearly seven million units this year, making up one-tenth of the world's total with the potential to surpass the US as the world's top auto market by 2020, analysts said.

The figure will climb to 10 million by 2010, and 20 million in 2020, overtaking the United States (som har ca. 16 mill biler/år, min komm.) to become the world's top first-hand automobile market, according to a forecast of the State Information Centre.

China will overtake Japan this year to become the world's second largest automobile seller.

The centre predicted that more middle-income Chinese families could afford a car in the coming years due to rising income and falling car prices.

Since China joined the World Trade Organisation five years ago, Chinese consumers' demand for sedans has been growing on an average of 37.5 per cent annually, Xinhua news agency quoted the centre as saying.

This year, the sale of sedans is estimated to hit four million, compared with 800,000 units in 2001.

China's automobile sales stood at 3.24 million units in 2002, ranking fourth in the world. The position rose to third in 2004.



[Endret 03.10.06 19:45 av OldNick]
grong2
20.10.2006 12:22
#1846

Endre
China reforms one-child policy

China has announced that it will reform its one-child policy so that parents in rural areas who reach 60 without having more than one son - or two daughters - will now receive an annual cash reward.


The government is adopting the new policy from next year as part of a new attempt to rein in population increase and relieve poverty in rural areas, state media reported on Monday.

The annual 600 yuan ($75.95) a year stipend is supposed to lessen the burden on single children who have to look after their aged parents, many of whom in rural areas have no health insurance, the official China Daily newspaper said.

China introduced a one-child policy in 1979 but later relaxed it to allow farmers in particular to have more children, especially if they have a daughter first.

The one-child policy however varies from region to region, and is more rigorously enforced in urban areas. Families having more than one child are often fined or denied benefits given to families which have only one child.

China now has 1.3 billion people, making it the world's most populous nation. The government's one-child policy remains in effect in most urban areas, although some exceptions have been allowed.

Parents prefer sons

Chinese parents traditionally prefer sons, who are seen as being able to carry on the family name and provide for them in old age.

"In the policy's early years local governments' main enforcement measure was to impose fines on rural families that violated the policy," the newspaper said.

"Experts said although imposing fines has contributed to the project's success, the policy should be adapted as the nation develops," it added.

"More encouraging measures and public education should be used to raise awareness of the need for family planning," the report said.

It added that about 95 per cent of survey respondents who had either one son or two daughters reported financial problems.

The survey was carried out by a development body under the State Council, or cabinet, in rural areas of Jiangxi, Gansu and Shanxi provinces.

Another change is to give one-off payments to rural families who have been given permission to have a third child but who choose not to have the child, the report said.
grong2
20.10.2006 12:27
#1847

Endre
ICBC Raises $19 Billion in World's Biggest IPO, With Offering Priced at Top End of Range

HONG KONG (AP) -- China's biggest bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, raised $19 billion Friday in the world's biggest initial public offering, pricing its IPO at the top end of expectations, thanks to overwhelming demand.

The stock sale, the first ever for shares to list in both Hong Kong and Shanghai, surpasses the previous record, a $18.4 billion IPO by Japanese mobile phone company NTT DoCoMo Inc. in 1998.

The state-owned bank, called ICBC, priced its Hong Kong offering at 3.07 Hong Kong dollars a share, at the top end of the indicative price range of HK$2.56-HK$3.07 ($0.33-$0.39), Dow Jones Newswires reported, citing an unidentified person familiar with the deal.

At that price, the bank is raising $13.9 billion from the Hong Kong offering.

The Shanghai portion of the offering was priced at 3.11 yuan ($0.39) -- near the top of its price range of 2.60 yuan to 3.12 yuan ($0.33-$0.39), Dow Jones Newswires said. The mainland portion will raise $5.1 billion.

If the so-called greenshoe option is exercised and the bank decides to increase its offering, the entire IPO could grow to $22 billion.

Mainland Chinese banks have a long track record of bad debts and lending scandals, but investors have been keen to buy shares, betting that government support will limit risks while allowing them to tap into China's economic boom.

Like the two other major state banks that have already sold shares in Hong Kong, Bank of China and China Construction Bank, ICBC has restructured and wiped out billions of dollars in bad debts.

ICBC's Hong Kong offering has attracted the largest amount of orders ever from retail investors, drawing orders of more than HK$420 billion ($53.9 billion), The Standard newspaper and the Hong Kong Economic Journal said.

More than 1 million people -- or one in seven of Hong Kong's total population -- placed those orders, the Journal said.

The keen demand surpassed the record set by Bank of China, the mainland's No. 2 lender, whose IPO in June drew HK$280 billion in retail orders.

Meanwhile, the institutional book for the Hong Kong offering was more than 30 times covered, attracting around $325 billion in orders from investors, Dow Jones quoted another person familiar with the deal as saying.
grong2
30.10.2006 22:34
#1964

Endre
Shares in China’s ICBC bank have made a strong start in trading following a world record initial public offering which raised up to $21.9 billion.

Following massive demand from investors, shares jumped as high as 18% above their offer price in Hong Kong as trading opened on Friday. State-owned ICBC is China’s largest bank with assets of more than $800 billion, 360,000 staff and more than 18,000 branches across China. For the first time ever in a Chinese IPO, shares in the bank made a simultaneous debut on the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets.

In both cases the ICBC offering ranked as the most popular ever among investors, attracting $400 of share orders for the Hong Kong portion of the offering and $99 billion for the Shanghai offering. The huge demand for ICBC shares is being seen as a sign of confidence in the continued rapid growth of the Chinese economy. “Investors foresee China’s economy maintaining 10 per cent growth every year before the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, so they’re buying mainland bank shares now to access that growth,” K. C . Chan of financial management firm KDB International told Reuters.
grong2
26.11.2006 14:03
#2172

Endre
China's growth revolution offers potential wins

Despite the cooling efforts of monetary policymakers, China's growth locomotive remains on track, offering potential stock wins for sectors linked to property, banking, basic goods and domestic consumption.
As recently as August, economists said China appeared to be heading for a sharp deceleration in the range of 8% gross domestic product growth next year as the effects of austerity measures at home and the backdrop of a global economic cooling helped tap the brakes.
Desperate to mop up excess liquidity and head off an investment bubble, authorities lifted lending rates twice since March, boosted the deposit ratio for commercial banks in two separate moves, placed curbs on lending to real estate, and loosened controls on capital outflows.

Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 10.4% on the year from a heady 11.3% in the second quarter, but that now looks more like a "soft patch" than a genuine deceleration.
"The tightening-induced slowdown in growth evident since July represents a pause in the China story rather than an end," wrote Paul Cavey, China economist for Macquarie Bank, in a report to clients.
"Given that there has never been a strong consensus in Beijing that the economy was overheating in the first place, a mild slowdown was all that officials ever wanted to achieve," he added. See more global markets coverage.
Cavey and economists at Goldman Sachs (GS), Standard Chartered and other banks have revised upwards their estimates for China growth next year, predicting the economy will expand at about 9.8% in real terms, slightly above its long-term average of 9.5% a year seen over the past 25 years.

Investors jump onboard
Equities investors have been quick to pick up on that growth rebound, recently sending the H-share index, which is Hong Kong's benchmark for China stocks, to 13-year highs. Chinese banking shares have been powering those gains.
The buying interest has been largely driven by institutional fund managers who view position-building in Chinese financials as one of the best ways to play the emerging wealth story.

The banking sector, in particular, is seen as ripe for expansion, with relatively few Chinese holding credit cards, life insurance policies or mortgages.
China Construction Bank (HK:939: news, chart, profile) , one of China's big four state-owned banks, has won favor among investors seeking medium-risk exposure to mainland growth since its listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year.
Its shares have risen 59% so far this year, but analysts see room for further gains, anticipating the bank will be able to sustain double-digit profit growth in coming years. Morgan Stanley recently upgraded CCB to "overweight" with a target price of HK$4.62, saying the bank ranks as the most profitable among mainland lenders listed in Hong Kong.
"Chinese banks, CCB included, are in a sweet spot of low cost of equity and high growth," Morgan Stanley analysts Eric Mak, Shary Wu, and Amit Rajpal wrote in a research report. "We estimate that China banks will deliver average earnings per share growth of 23% over 2006 to 2008, the fastest among Asian banks."
Citigroup this month added China Construction Bank to its list of 10 "China strategy top picks," saying the mainland lender has delivered strong first-half earnings and seems to be on the right footing.
The bank posted first-half pre-tax profits of 32.8 billion yuan ($4.85 billion), up 3% on the year. Looking forward, Citigroup forecasts China Construction Bank will increase its net profit by 25% in calendar 2007 on continued strong operating trends.
Despite its short history as a listed entity, however, CCB trades at a valuation of at least 2.6 times 2006 book value, much higher than HSBC Holdings on 2.1 times book value, even though the global lender has a much more consistent record of earnings growth.
Shares of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong have also been on a major run since the October flotation of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China , the world's largest-ever at more than $19 billion, awakened interest in the sector.
Many fund managers who didn't get their allocation in the hugely popular IPO have also been accumulating shares in ICBC's listed peers.
Shares in Bank of China another of China's top four state-owned lenders, have risen 33% since its June listing in Hong Kong, while shares in peer Bank of Communications have vaulted 105% so far this year.

The telecoms sector, too, is benefiting from China's economic leap forward.Citigroup includes wireless provider China Mobile among its top ten China picks for investors seeking to leverage the rising spending power of consumers on the mainland.
Shares of China Mobile have risen more than 85% year to date. China Mobile is big by any measure. At a market capitalization of $171.1 billion, the telecom ranks behind only HSBC Holdings at $216.5 billion among Hong Kong-listed blue chips. What's more, analysts say, its massive subscriber base of about 270 million, the biggest of any wireless provider, looks set to get bigger.
Last month, China Mobile signed a record 4.59 million new subscribers, roughly the equivalent of New Zealand's entire population. Almost half are coming from rural areas, where rising wages are making cellular ownership more affordable.
Of an estimated 750 million rural dwellers, only 12 in every 100 own a mobile phone. "We foresee rural subscriptions will remain as China Mobile's growth driver in the next eight to 10 years," wrote UOB telecom analysts Kay Hian, who has a HK$77.70 target price on the share.
Despite the recent gains...



[Endret 26.11.06 14:04 av grong2]
grong2
26.11.2006 14:05
#2173

Endre
Despite the recent gains, analysts remain upbeat China Mobile's fast growth rate can compensate for more demanding price-to-earnings multiples. Macquarie Research estimates the wireless operator can sustain earnings growth in the high teens for two to three years.
On an operational level, Citigroup says falling tariff rates are being offset by rising usage levels, while the cost of acquiring new subscribers is on the wane.
The biggest challenges are likely to come from regulatory changes as Beijing seeks to create a more level playing field among large telecom operators while the rollout of 3G services also presents additional risks.
Citigroup telecom analyst Rohit Sobti says changes to the regulatory environment are a worry, but he sees little to disrupt China Mobile's winning streak anytime soon.
"Continued delays and in regulatory changes means China Mobile's window of unchallenged growth is lasting longer and operational trends are strong," Sobti wrote in a research report.
A piece of the patch
An upturn in the credit cycle also bodes well for the property sector, says Henry Chan, head of research at Quam Research, a Hong Kong-based group that focuses on locally listed shares.
Seeking to head off an investment bubble, Beijing introduced a round of tightening measures in late 2004 that were designed to slow the rate of loan issuance from stratospheric-levels of 23% annual growth. New loan issuance fell to 9.5% annual growth in late 2005, but has since reaccelerated to 13% in July, a level Chan believes is in line with Beijing's policy goals for the next several years.
Chan says the best way to play the sector is through any of the blue-chip developers listed in Hong Kong, such as Henderson Land and Cheung Kong Holdings His favored pick is Hang Lung Group , which owns a 51% stake in locally listed developer Hang Lung Properties Ltd.The developer currently has five major projects underway in second-tier mainland cities valued at $2.48 billion and plans to invest an additional $1.3 billion in coming years. Hang Lung's previous Shanghai developments include the commercial complex The Grand Gateway and the mixed commercial and office complex Plaza 66.
Chan estimates fair value for Hang Lung Group shares at HK$26.40, or about 21% above its recent closing price of HK$21.88.
"Historically there is a big discount but we gather that the discount has been narrowing over the years," Chan said.
Retail wonder
The momentum also favors retailers, as increasing flush Chinese go looking to spend.
Food and retail conglomerate China Resources Enterprise Ltd , a component of the Hang Seng Index, is striving to become the largest consumer company in China through a triumvirate strategy focused on breweries, shopping malls and apparel.
Among its core holdings, the group counts majority ownership of CR Snow Breweries, which saw sales of its Snow brand beer soar 91% in the first nine months of the year. CR Snow, which includes 46 breweries across the country, has overtaken long-time market leader Tsingtao as China's top brewer by volume. The brewery has foreign participation in the form of a 49%-ownership stake by the U.K.'s SABMiller Earlier this week China Resources said revenue jumped 26% in the third quarter ending in September on strong growth in its brewery and supermarkets divisions.
Quam Research's Chan says the retailer's strategy of building out its network of hypermarkets in coastal regions looks set to bear fruit, and upgraded his call on the shares to "accumulate" following third-quarter earnings.
Despite China's booming 16% year-on-year growth in retail sales, some analysts caution the sector faces hard times as competition heats up.
Among new players bumping up stakes, Wal-Mart Stores, Incinked an October deal to acquire 100 supermarkets over three years from Taiwan's Trust-Mart, adding to the 66 stores it currently operates.
Shot over the bow
While many investors jump in, some analysts have sounded the warning bell, saying expectations have run ahead of fundamentals.
"I am concerned the share prices have risen too fast and basically I expect some kind of consolidation or correction near term," said Marco Mak, head of research at Tai Fook Securities in Hong Kong.
In spite of the softening export outlook, China appears set to benefit from a self-reinforcing liquidity boom driven by surging trade surpluses, a rebound in bank lending, continuing foreign direct-investment flows and the effects of yuan appreciation.
"For the time being it's not such a bad position for China to be in, growth is strong, you've got lots of liquidity, asset prices are going to rise," Macquarie's Cavey said.
grong2
26.11.2006 19:53
#2176

Endre
China's Economy Unlikely to Slow `Sharply' in 2007

China's economy is unlikely to slow ``sharply'' in 2007 because rising consumer spending and industrial production will underpin growth, said Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics.

``The government's policy to boost consumption will show better results next year,'' Yao said in an interview at a business forum in Beijing today. Consumer spending should make a ``greater contribution to economic growth, even though investment may slow amid the government's curbing measures.''

China has raised minimum wages and increased welfare spending to get households to spend more and make the economy less dependent on investment and exports. As it encourages spending by consumers, China has increased interest rates and ordered banks to set aside more money as reserves to damp business investment and clamp down on wasteful factory expansion.

``Growth will continue to be strong, but weaker than this year,'' Federico Bazzoni, head of Asian equities at BNP Paribas SA, said in an interview in Milan on Nov. 24. ``That's good news, as there are fewer risks of overheating. Growth in 2007 will be less than 10 percent.''

China's economic expansion slowed in the third quarter for the first time in a year as lending curbs damped business investment. The economy grew 10.4 percent in the quarter from the same period a year earlier, compared with 11.3 percent in the prior three months.

The world's fourth-largest economy will maintain ``steady and relatively fast growth'' in 2007, Yao said at today's conference, without providing a forecast.

World Bank Forecasts

The World Bank on Nov. 14 raised its estimate for China's 2007 economic growth for a second time in four months. The World Bank said the world's fastest growing major economy may expand 9.6 percent next year after advancing 10.4 percent in 2006.

China's 2006 growth rate may be as high as 10.7 percent, Yao said yesterday. Gross domestic product will rise between 10 percent and 10.7 percent this year, he said in Shanghai.

Consumer spending is gathering pace as curbs on lending and land use slow business investment, helping China's economy skirt a sharp slowdown. Retail sales jumped in October at the fastest pace in almost two years.

China is planning to increase wages for government employees by the end of the year, a move aimed at raising urban incomes and further stoking household spending, Yao said.

The World Bank has urged China to boost spending on healthcare, education and social security to encourage its 1.3 billion citizens to spend rather than putting their money in bank deposits. China's savings rate is double the world average.

Investment Controls

China needs to continue its economic, monetary and administrative measures to control bank lending and fixed-asset investment, Yao said. Growth in investment spending is still ``relatively high,'' he said.

Eight provinces out of the 31 in China had annual investment growth of more than 35 percent at the end of October, and three of those had investment growing faster than 40 percent annually, Yao said.

Investment growth in China's towns and cities slowed to 26.8 percent in the first 10 months from a year earlier, after rising 28.2 percent through September, a government report on Nov. 16 showed.

``Further tightening is expected since the government has failed to control investment growth to its targeted 18 percent for this year,'' said Zhu Baoliang, chief economist at the State Information Center, an affiliate of the country's top planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission.

``We see next year's economic growth slowing mildly to around 9.5 percent, as investment and trade growth falls after government's curbing measures,'' Zhu said today.
cipo
08.12.2006 21:08
#10042

Endre
Kinesiske prostituerte i gapestokk
Kinesiske prostituerte blir stilt opp i gaten for å statuere et skrekkeksempel.

Send NA til 1984 eller epost.

Av Thomas Paust Den siste uken har kinesisk politi pågrepet 100 kvinner mistenkt for prostitusjon, samt et hundretalls med sex-kunder i Guangdong-provinsen sør i Kina. I et forsøk på å bekjempe prostitusjonen i regionen har politiet gått til et drastisk skritt.

Iført håndjern
Flere hundre prostituerte og sex-kunder ble stilt ut midt i sentrum av byen Shenzhen til skue for alle. Samtlige var iført håndjern og gule gensere. Hundrevis av borgere samlet seg rundt den omfattende «gapestokken» for å høre at dommen til de kriminelle bli lest opp, skriver Ekstra Bladet.

Prostitusjon er forbudt i Kina og er for tiden et hett tema i kinesiske medier. Vanligvis blir de prostituerte straffet med en bot, men denne gangen skulle de virkelig føle det på kroppen.

Forbudt siden 1949
Prostitusjon ble forbudt i Kina i 1949 etter at kommunistene overtok makten i landet. Prostituerte ble før i tiden tvangssendt til skoler hvor de ble utdannet til andre yrker. Men helt siden Mao døde i 1976 har styresmaktene sett gjennom fingrene på prostitusjon, noe som har ført til at sexindustrien har vokst i en eksplosiv fart.

Det finnes rundt 20 millioner prostituerte i Kina, og
industrien står for ti prosent av bruttonasjonalproduktet.




[Endret 08.12.06 21:08 av cipo]
[Endret 08.12.06 21:08 av cipo]
cipo
08.12.2006 21:09
#10043

Endre
er det mulig?
nynatural
09.12.2006 07:36
#2413

Endre
Hvert eneste år er det samme melodien, veksten vil avta dramatisk neste år. Ca 10% annualisert vekst har vel vært fasiten, mens myndighetene forsikrer gang på gang at veksten vil bli langt lavere enn forrige år, og i stabilisert nedtrend, bla..bla..bla.
Veksten i Kina har rom for å holde takten i flere tiår til.
Det må en dramatisk økning i oljeprisen/energiprisen for å bremse særlig på dette.

Det var nå voldsomt til knulling, eller kanskje prisene pr nummer er erigert over evne??


[Endret 09.12.06 07:37 av nynatural]
grong2
29.12.2006 15:41
#2234

Endre
Asian stocks broadly higher in 2006 finale - Among several regional standouts, China's Shanghai Composite jumped 4.2% to a record, tallying its second-biggest single day percentage gain this year bank and airline stocks moved higher.


In China, the Shanghai Composite surged 107.88 points to 2,675.47. For the year, the index has risen 130%.
Although China's growth is likely to have cooled in the fourth quarter, the economy should expand 10.5% in 2007, The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition, citing comments by Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics.
Yao said he expects China's trade surplus to total $170 billion, up from $102 billion in 2005. Industrial output, Yao added, is likely to have grown 17%, up from 11.4% in the previous year, the report said.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index ended 0.2% lower, falling 37.19 points to 19,964.72. The China Enterprises Index slipped 0.2%, giving up 22.92 points to 10,340.36, also retreating from a record close the previous session.
The blue-chip Hang Seng, which had closed above the 20,000-point level for the first time on Thursday, was dragged lower as a result of pressure on index heavyweights HSBC Holdings (HBC HBC91.81, +0.17, +0.2%) (HK:5:) and China Mobile Ltd. (CHL : CHL44.16, +0.61, +1.4%), traders said.
"The market was a bit tentative, testing the 20,000 level," said Howard Gorges, vice chairman of South China Brokerage in Hong Kong.
He added that the ability of the Hang Seng to hold ground near Thursday's record close reflected underlying strength, saying: "The market did run into a bit of profit-taking but firmed up quite quickly, and basically ended up pretty firm. ... The buyers are certainly still around."

Year of the 'China play'

For the year, the Hang Seng posted a 34% gain. The China Enterprises Index, which comprises major Chinese companies, or H shares, such as PetroChina (PTR : petrochina co ltd PTR142.12, +1.70, +1.2%) (HK:857: ) and aluminum maker Chalco (HK:2600: ) , nearly doubled in value.
Gorges added the broader market was stronger than reflected by the blue-chip Hang Seng as investors sought direct stakes in the China growth story.
"There has been pretty strong performance in a lot of China stocks over the last four months or so and quite a few of the Hong Kong stocks haven't performed that well because the interest has been in China," Gorges said.
In Hong Kong trading, shares of CNOOC Ltd. (CEO : CNOOC, Ltd.
CEO92.49, +1.45, +1.6%) (HK:883: ) , China's largest offshore oil producer, rose 3.2%. Index bellwether HSBC fell 0.1% and China Mobile, the nation's biggest mobile operator by subscribers, fell 1.1%.
Chinese financial shares were generally lower as investors booked profits after recent gains. On Wednesday, mainland banking and insurance shares, among other China-focused plays, soared on reports that Beijing may move to trim the corporate tax rate on domestic firms.
Shares of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (HK:1398: ) slipped 1.8%, trimming its gain since its October listing to 38%. China Construction Bank (HK:939: ) , fell 2%; the company's share have risen 87% this year.
Shares of China Life Insurance Co. (HK:2628: ) , which had soared 294% through 2006, fell 1.7%.
Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HK:388: , added 1.2%, becoming the top performing blue chip, rising 162% for the year.
Another Friday standout, shares of Hutchison Telecom (HK:2332: ) gained 3.5% as potential bidders jostled for its 67% stake in India's Hutchison Essar. Recent bids reportedly value Hutchison Essar, the nation's fourth-largest wireless operator, at a minimum of $17 billion.
Shares of mainland carriers Air China (HK:753: ) rose 2.4%, while China Southern Airlines (HK:1055: ) jumped 5.4%. Analysts said gains were driven by an upbeat earnings outlook on a stronger yuan and softer oil prices.



[Endret 29.12.06 15:42 av grong2]
[Endret 29.12.06 15:43 av grong2]
Pickr
08.03.2007 23:43
#246

Endre
Nå skal eiendomsretten vedtas i Kina, dermed er det snart raka vegen for den alminnelige investor. Leve gammelkommunistene og nykapitalistene i Kina.

Regner med deltakerne på Kina-topicen sitter tungt i bulk på OSE? Her skal det fraktes malm og kull!



[Endret 08.03.07 23:44 av Pickr]
highhope
09.03.2007 04:42
#1307

Endre
Håper dere allerede har begynt å sikre dere tilgang til fremtidig lukrative landområder, dersom loven trer i kraft.
edgar
12.03.2007 08:31
#120

Endre
KINA:HANDELSBALANSEN USD +23,8 MRD I FEBRUAR, EKSPORT +51,7% Å/Å

Oslo (TDN Finans): Kinas handelsbalanse viste et overskudd på 23,8
milliarder dollar i februar 2007, mot et overskudd på 15,9 milliarder
dollar måneden før.

Det melder kinesiske statistikkmyndigheter, ifølge Bloomberg News mandag.

Ifølge estimater Bloomberg News hadde innhentet på forhånd var det ventet
et overskudd på handelsbalansen på 7,3 milliarder dollar.

Eksporten steg 51,7 prosent på årsbasis til 82,1 milliarder dollar, mot en
vekst på 33,0 prosent måneden før, og en ventet vekst på 25,2 prosent.

Importen var opp 13,1 prosent til 58,3 milliarder dollar, mot en vekst på
27,5 prosent i foregående måned, og en ventet vekst på 19,8 prosent.

Råoljeimporten steg åtte prosent til 12,1 millioner tonn i februar 2007 i
forhold til samme periode i fjor, mens råoljeimporten steg 5,7 prosent til
25,8 millioner tonn i januar og februar 2007 sammenlignet med samme periode
året før. Kina eksporterte ikke råolje i februar. I de to første månedene
samlet falt råoljeeksporten med 31,1 prosent til 0,3 millioner tonn i
forhold til samme periode året før.

Importen av oljeprodukter falt 1,4 prosent til 5,1 millioner tonn i januar
og februar, mens den var på 2,28 millioner tonn i februar alene. Eksporten
av oljeprodukter steg 12,9 prosent til 2,34 millioner tonn i januar og
februar, og var på
1,41 millioner tonn i februar.

Kulleksporten falt 29,6 prosent til 7,71 millioner tonn i januar og
februar, og var på 4,42 millioner tonn i februar.
--
TDN Finans
OldNick
12.05.2007 14:23
#5518

Endre
Kina's utenrikshandel hadde en svak måned i mars, men tigeren kom brølende tilbake i April.....

China Trade Surplus Widens Ahead of Paulson Summit

By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 11, 2007

(Bloomberg) - China's trade surplus swelled 63 percent in April from a year earlier to $16.9 billion, topping economists' forecasts and adding to tensions with the U.S. as the countries' policy makers prepare for a summit this month.

Exports jumped 26.8 percent and imports climbed 21.3 percent, the General Administration of Customs said on its Web site. The trade surplus for the first four months was $63.3 billion, 88 percent higher than a year earlier.

The gap gives more ammunition to U.S. lawmakers who say China benefits from an undervalued currency, two weeks before Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Vice Premier Wu Yi meet for trade talks in Washington. China this week agreed to buy $4 billion of U.S. technology products and allowed the yuan to have the biggest gain since the end of a dollar link.

``The yuan will have to appreciate further,'' said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong Ltd. ``The pace is already speeding up ahead of Wu's arrival in the U.S.,'' which will ``alleviate tension and create a better atmosphere.''

The yuan rose 0.22 percent to 7.6766 to the dollar at 5:30 p.m. in Shanghai, for the biggest weekly gain since the end of a fixed exchange rate in July 2005. The currency has climbed 7.8 percent since the dollar link was dropped.

April's trade surplus widened from $6.9 billion in the previous month and $10.4 billion a year earlier. Exports grew 6.9 percent in March and 23.7 percent in April 2006.

Les mer her
______

Og her er statistikken for handelsbalansen, hvro bare April-tallene (fra Bloomberg-artikkelen over) ikke er inkludert...

Ministry of Commerce - People's Republic of China.

Statistics of trade, Import and Export in China

Handelsbalansen utløp mars, 2007:






______

China Money Supply Rises 17.1%, Exceeding Target

By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Helen Yuan
May 13, 2007

(Bloomberg) - China's money supply growth exceeded the government target for a third month and lending accelerated, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.

M2, which includes cash and all deposits, rose 17.1 percent in April from a year earlier, the People's Bank of China said on its Web site today, after gaining 17.3 percent in March. That beat the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the central bank's 2007 target of 16 percent.

Les mer her



[Endret 14.05.07 00:18 av OldNick]
OldNick
15.05.2007 07:26
#5530

Endre
China Retail Sales Rise 15.5 Percent as Wages Grow

By Nipa Piboontanasawat
May 15, 2007

(Bloomberg) - China's retail sales accelerated in April, fueled by rising incomes and a stock market boom that threatens to create a bubble.

Sales rose 15.5 percent from a year earlier to 667.3 billion yuan ($86.8 billion) after gaining 15.3 percent in March, the statistics bureau said today. That was the biggest increase since May 2004 after adjusting for seasonal distortions.

"This is encouraging," said Sun Mingchun, an economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. "But it's too early to say whether it can be sustained, because part of the increase was supported by the stock market."

Premier Wen Jiabao's drive to boost consumption and reduce dependence on exports and investment in the world's fourth- biggest economy may be derailed by a share market bust. The benchmark CSI 300 Index has climbed 82 percent this year and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cautioned May 10 that stocks may face a "correction."

The increase in retail sales beat the 15.1 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. For the first four months, sales increased 15.1 percent from the same period last year to 2.8 trillion yuan.

Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., China's biggest electronics retailer, said profit surged 75 percent in the first quarter. Tsingtao Brewery Co., part-owned by Anheuser-Busch Cos., posted an 18 percent increase in net income.

Electronics, Jewelry

Electronics sales increased 13 percent in April from a year earlier, while those of furniture jumped 53 percent. Jewelry sales rose 31 percent.

Among 724 executives in China, 61 percent said they will increase hiring in the second quarter, up from 59 percent in the previous three months, according to a survey by recruitment firm Hudson Global Resources.

China's economy grew 11.1 percent in the first quarter as exports boomed, flooding the financial system with cash. Households have switched money from bank deposits to shares.

"I make about 5,000 yuan a month investing in stocks," said Peng Li, 25, a student eating at the food court of the Mix C Shopping Mall in Shenzhen. "I spend most of my money on eating and shopping with friends."

China will strengthen implementation of minimum wages and improve public welfare to support consumption, Premier Wen Jiabao told lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in March.

Disposable Incomes

Disposable incomes in urban areas jumped 19.5 percent in the first quarter and rural households' earnings climbed 15.2 percent.

"Most Chinese people live in the country and the government needs to further boost rural incomes to expand consumption," said Zuo Xiaolei, chief economist at China Galaxy Securities Co. in Beijing.

Retail spending in towns and cities jumped 16 percent in April from a year earlier. In rural areas, the increase was 14.6 percent.

The increased wealth of China's consumers is leading retailers to boost investment. Suning Appliance Co., China's second-biggest home appliance retailer, last month said it plans to raise about 2.4 billion yuan by selling shares to develop a chain of 250 outlets and two flagship shops in Shanghai and central Wuhan city.

Retail sales increased 13.7 percent in all of 2006. Economists often combine figures for the first two months of each year to eliminate Lunar New Year holiday distortions.
______

I fjor spiste Kina 250.000 tonn av side Cu-lagre, og tilsynelatende sank det kinesiske forbruket av raffinert Cu.

Det førte til at LME-traderne kjørte prisen ned i $2.50/lb.

I år må de istedet bygge lagre, og det fører til en ny eksplosjon i importen.

Er det noen som påstår av bullmarkedet i råvarer er forbi ?

Copper Futures Rise in New York on Surging Chinese Imports

By Millie Munshi
May 15, 2007

(Bloomberg) - Copper rose in New York after imports into China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, surged 61 percent in the year's first four months.

China imported 1.08 million metric tons of copper and copper products from January through April, according to preliminary data issued today by the Beijing-based customs office. Imports in April jumped 68 percent to 304,672 tons from a year earlier. Copper futures have climbed 23 percent this year on speculation that China's economic growth will boost demand.

"Chinese imports have been leading the copper price," said Patrick Chidley, an analyst at Barnard Jacobs Mellet LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. "The real question is whether this demand will continue and where it's going to go from here."

The copper futures dropped 4.1 percent last week amid speculation that China may have an adequate supply of the metal, used in pipes and wires.

April imports were down from a record 307,740 tons in March, an indication that China's demand may be starting to wane, Sahil Kapoor, an analyst at Kotak Commodity Service Ltd. in Mumbai, wrote in a report today.



[Endret 15.05.07 07:25 av OldNick]
[Endret 15.05.07 16:41 av OldNick]
FrodeF
15.05.2007 23:26
#128

Endre
Snart mangel på arbeidskraft i kina
OldNick
30.05.2007 13:34
#5612

Endre
"This is a relatively small casino"


Greenspan's China-Stock `Correction' May Not Spread

By Simon Kennedy and Scott Lanman
May 30, 2007

(Bloomberg) - Even if former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is right, the "dramatic contraction" he predicts for Chinese stocks isn't likely to infect the international economy.

That's the conclusion of a number of international economists and former government officials around the globe. They say China's economy shows little correlation with its stock market, foreigners are mostly excluded from owning shares and Chinese participation is limited to less than 10 percent of the population, reducing the effect of a bursting bubble.

"This is a relatively small casino," said Edwin Truman, a former director of the Federal Reserve's international finance division and now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. "Even the implications for the Chinese economy should be minor"

Les mer her
Coolav1
30.05.2007 13:41
#9

Endre
Som det vert nemnd i denne artikkelen er det uhyre sjeldan at ei boble har vorte spådd i forkant. Greenspan har sjølv oversett to. .

The great wall of money
ch8
30.05.2007 13:54
#112

Endre
Er det en boble da? Eller vokser kinesiske selskapers inntjening og omsetning så fort at P/E 45 er OK? Er vår egen REC en boble, ingen tør si det?
OldNick
14.06.2007 10:43
#5675

Endre
Slowdown i Kina ?

Ikke enda, veksten er formidabel - og India ligger like i hælene...

China's Industrial Output Growth Accelerates in May

By Nipa Piboontanasawat
June 14, 2007

(Bloomberg) - China's industrial production growth unexpectedly accelerated in May, underscoring the government's failure to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy.

Output rose 18.1 percent in May from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said today, after gaining 17.4 percent in April. That compared with the 17 percent median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

China's Premier Wen Jiabao said last night that monetary policy needs a ``moderate tightening'' to prevent the economy from overheating, suggesting the central bank may raise interest rates. Record trade surpluses have pumped money into the financial system, stoking investment, inflation and a stock market boom.

"China has a long way to go in terms of monetary policy tightening and it won't be finished soon," said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice this year and ordered lenders to set aside more reserves five times. The benchmark one-year lending rate is 6.57 percent and the deposit rate is 3.06 percent.

Output growth was the fastest since the 18.5 percent pace of January and February. Figures for those months are combined to eliminate distortions caused by the timing of Lunar New Year holidays.

For the first five months, industrial production climbed 18.1 percent from the same period last year, up from 16.6 percent growth for all of 2006.

Strong Demand

"Strong industrial production in China reflects strong external and internal demand," said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney. "It's also too early for recent monetary tightening to have had an impact."

Retail sales climbed 15.9 percent in May from a year earlier, the biggest increase in three years, and exports jumped 28.7 percent.

"Increases in lending rates and reserve requirements should help stabilize fixed-asset investment and industrial production this year," said Huang Haizhou, an economist at Barclays Capital in Hong Kong.

China Shoto Plc, a provider of batteries and power supply systems, increased production to meet rising demand, the company said this month.

In India, the world's second-fastest growing major economy, industrial production rose 13.6 percent in April from a year earlier.

Investment, Inflation

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas probably grew 25.4 percent in the first five months from a year earlier, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The statistics bureau will release the figures at 10 a.m. tomorrow.

Inflation accelerated in May to 3.4 percent, the highest in more than two years.

Besides monetary policy, the government has tightened approvals of investment projects, curbed land use, increased energy costs, and cut export rebates to discourage wasteful spending on factories.

China last month started a campaign to cool excess growth in industries including iron, steel, copper, aluminum, zinc and cement that pollute and consume energy heavily.



[Endret 14.06.07 10:43 av OldNick]
goofball
21.06.2007 14:01
#111

Endre
Chinese Investors Freed To Play World Markets

Kan ikke dette bli litt spennende da?
OldNick
21.06.2007 14:21
#5706

Endre
Uhyre spennende vil jeg tro.

Men, effekten vil vi vel se først og fremst på de kinesiske børsene.

Fortsetter de opp, går lite utenlands, dropper de, begynner vel folk å flytte pengene sine til Hong Kong til å begynne med.
OldNick
19.07.2007 09:21
#5837

Endre
Og, China som oppskrev veksten i 2006 til 11.1% (fra 10.7%), har fortsatt i samme trend i 2007.

2 kvartals vekst viser en aksellererende økonomi (som sentralbanken har advart om kan løpe løpsk og overopphetes).

Sterk prisvekst, spesiellt for matvarer driver inflasjonen i China. Dette ble anekdotisk rapportert i begynnelsen av juni (Reuters/NYTimes etc.), da spesiellt for grisekjøtt.

China's Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in 12 Years

By Nipa Piboontanasawat
July 19, 2007

(Bloomberg) - China's economy grew at the fastest pace in 12 years in the second quarter and inflation surged, prompting speculation the government will raise interest rates and push the currency higher to cool growth.

Gross domestic product expanded 11.9 percent from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today, exceeding all estimates of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Inflation climbed to 4.4 percent in June, the fastest since September 2004, breaching the central bank's 3 percent target for a fourth month.

Growth was powered by investment in factories and real estate that the government has been unable to cool with two rate increases this year and restrictions on bank lending. Allowing the yuan to strengthen may also help quell tensions with the U.S. and Europe, which say China's record exports reflect the unfair advantage of an artificially low currency.

"Accelerating inflation and a rebound in fixed-asset investment heighten the risk of overheating," said Wang Qing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. "Demand in key sectors is not outstripping supply yet, but the government is concerned." Wang expects an interest-rate increase "any time from now."

The yuan rose to as much as 7.5615 against the dollar, the highest since China abandoned a decade-old peg to the dollar in July 2005. It traded at 7.5637 at 2:10 p.m. in Shanghai, from 7.5639 before the report was released. The currency has climbed 9.4 percent since the link ended.

Clinton, Obama

That isn't enough for some U.S. lawmakers. Presidential candidates Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama plan to co- sponsor legislation pushing for faster gains in the yuan.

"What they really need to do is accelerate the pace of currency appreciation," said Frank Gong, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. "One major reason for the strong growth is the expanding trade surplus."

Liang Hong, senior economist at Goldman Sachs Group in Hong Kong, increased her 2007 GDP forecast to 12.3 percent from 10.8 percent. Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA, raised its forecast to 11.2 percent from 10 percent.

"Our forecasts assume decisive policy tightening taking place in the second half of 2007," said Goldman's Liang, predicting two more 27-basis-point interest-rate increases this year, a reduction in the amount of money available for lending and other measures to restrict investment.

Interest Rates

"China will continue to strengthen and improve macro- economic controls in the second half of this year" to keep money supply and lending under control, said Li Xiaochao, spokesman for the statistics bureau.

The central bank is expected to increase the benchmark one- year interest rate from 6.57 percent and the deposit rate from 3.06 percent at least once this year, according to 21 of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month.

China's economy accounts for about a 10th of global growth and its appetite for commodities drove the prices of nickel and iron ore to records this year. Premier Wen advocates "moderate" measures to cool growth. He wants to avoid a sudden slowdown that could throw hundreds of thousands out of work and ignite social tension in the world's most populous nation.

A shortage of pigs following an outbreak of disease and surging international grain prices were among the main drivers of China's inflation, complicating efforts of the central bank to contain unpopular price increases.

Food Prices

Food inflation accounted for 2.5 percentage points of the overall 3.2 percent inflation for the first half, the statistics bureau said.

Rising food prices, high stock and property prices and excessive liquidity from the nation's record trade surplus ``may in combination push inflation further,'' said Li.

"Tightening monetary policy isn't going to immediately rectify rising food prices," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong. "The government will have to use different methods."

The government will increase the supply of poultry, beef and eggs and tighten controls on corn exports, the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top planner, said this week.

Inflation has fueled some stock-market speculation because it outpaced returns on bank deposits, encouraging households to bet on equities. The key one-year deposit rate is 3.06 percent. The benchmark CSI 300 stock index has gained 87 percent this year.

Stock Market

To make savings more attractive, lawmakers last month passed legislation that will allow the cabinet to scrap or reduce a 20 percent tax on interest income. In May the government raised stamp duty on share trades to cool the stock market.

The CSI 300 has fallen about 11 percent since its June 19 record. The index fell 1.26 points to 3806.31 at 2:12 p.m. in Shanghai.

Fixed-asset investment in urban areas jumped 26.7 percent in the first half from a year earlier, up from 25.3 percent in the first quarter.

China is also trying to encourage consumer spending by raising minimum wages and improving social security. Retail sales rose 16 percent in June from a year earlier after gaining 15.9 percent in May.

"Investment growth is likely to moderate, given continued monetary and administrative tightening," said JPMorgan's Gong.
OldNick
19.07.2007 09:36
#5838

Endre
Og, verdens tredje økonomi (beregnet på offisielle valutakurser), er de blitt.

Bare USA og Japan er foran.

Beregnet på PPP-basis er China like bak USA og langt foran Japan. Om mindre enn 5 år er China foran USA (igjen på PPP-basis).

Der kommer India på 4'dje plass.

Ref: CIA: The World Factbook

Kina har passert Tyskland som verdens tredje største økonomi.

18 juli, 2007 - NTB (dn.no)

Bare USA og Japan har nå en totaløkonomi større enn Midtens rike.

Det skjedde antakeligvis allerede for et par måneder siden, sier sjeføkonom Stephen Green i Standard Chartered Bank i Shanghai.

Vi går ut fra at de offisielle tallene for brutto nasjonalprodukt ligger 10-20 prosent under de virkelige tallene.

Siden 1999 har Kina, med en årlig vekstrate på rundt 10 prosent, tidligere passert store industrinasjoner som Italia, Frankrike og Storbritannia. Nå gjenstår bare Japan og USA.

Veksttallene for 2006 ble for kort tid siden korrigert fra 10,7 til 11,1 prosent.

Allerede i slutten av 2005 overrasket statistikere med å fortelle at Kinas økonomi var 16,8 prosent større enn man til da hadde trodd.

Omregnet per hode kommer imidlertid Folkerepublikken med sine 1,3 milliarder mennesker helt ned på 89. plass i verden.
falitt
19.07.2007 10:38
#12634

Endre
Ingen tvil om at Kina er på vei økonomisk. Det eneste jeg ikke skjønner er at både EU og USA er bekymret over arbeidsplassene forsvinner ?
Det burde jo være tvert imot. Vi har jo fått alle fordeler. Forurensende industri er overlatt til Kina, som produserer varer for oss til slavelønninger, ofte subsidiert av staten gjennom eksportstøtte.
Vår inflasjon er flat, alene takket være billigere import. Prisen på klær og skotøy er latterlig lave. Skulle vi eller Europa produsert dette selv, ville prisene vært 3-4 ganger høyere.
Nei, "stakkars" Kina, der bygger man opp et forurensningsproblem man knapt kan tenke seg. Vann og land forurenses i en skala ingen har sett maken til. Kostnadene dette vil kreve i fremtiden er antagelig astronomisk.
De vestlige land som har begynt en opprydding av gamle synder i så måte, ser jo hvilke kostnader dette innebærer.
Så i sum, hva får vesten. Varer alt for billig. Nesten all skitten produksjon eksportert, mens mesteparten av fortjenesten allikevel havner hos oss.
Kunne vi planlagt det bedre ?
Stakkars Kina (og andre emerging countries)


[Endret 19.07.07 10:39 av falitt]
OldNick
03.08.2007 15:31
#5915

Endre
China overførte i vinter av US$300 mrd. (av sine ca. $1.330 - pr. juli-07 i valutareserver) i et investeringsfond for internasjonale investeringer.

En av de profilerte investeringene de har gjort, er å gå inn med $3 mrd. i Blackstone Group (BX.N), Private Equity-selskapet til Stephen Schwarzman.

Den investeringen har ikke vært særlig gullkantet til nå (p.g.a. tilstrammingen i kredittmarkedet, som slike PE-selskaper lever på), og følgende artikkel i NYTimes.com forteller om hvordan det foregikk, og om kritikk de har fått hjemme.

Feeling the Heat, Not Breathing Fire

By KEITH BRADSHER, NYTimes.com
Aug. 3, 2007

HONG KONG, Aug. 2 — The first purchase by the Chinese government’s new overseas investment fund, a $3 billion stake in the Blackstone Group, has produced an unusual public reaction within China.


Stephen A. Schwarzman, above, and Peter G. Peterson are the founders of the Blackstone Group, which has not done well since going public.


Since Blackstone went public on June 22, the company’s shares have fallen steeply, pushing down the value of the Chinese government’s investment by more than $425 million in just six weeks.

Chinese bloggers, and even some financial media, have not taken the hammering lying down. They are assiduously tracking the dwindling value of the government stake, and some bloggers and postings in Internet chat rooms are bitterly questioning Beijing’s stock judgment — often in particularly Chinese terms.

“O senior officials of the Chinese government, please do not be fooled by sweet-talking wolves dressed in human skin,” said one of seven scathing Internet postings compiled by an anonymous blogger on Sina.com, a Chinese Web site. “The foreign reserves are the product of the sweat and blood of the people of China, please invest them with more care!”

In a sign that the Chinese government may be less comfortable with the marketplace of ideas than they are with the stock market, the blogger’s entry was visible on the Web site on Thursday afternoon, but had disappeared by Thursday night. Access to other entries by the same blogger was blocked, but milder criticisms of the Blackstone investment by others could still be found.

Les mer her



[Endret 03.08.07 15:31 av OldNick]
edgar
15.08.2007 10:20
#145

Endre
Momentum fuels China markets
chateau
25.12.2010 16:36
#4909

Endre
Hvordan vil dagens melding påvirke aksjemarkedet i dagene fremover?

Kina setter opp renten

Sentralbanken i Kina har satt opp utlåns- og innskuddsrentene for å forsøke å bremse inflasjonen.

Sentralbanken i Kina satte lørdag opp utlåns- og innskuddsrentene med 0,25 prosentpoeng for å forsøke å bremse inflasjonen.

Det er andre gang på tre måneder at Kinas sentralbank setter opp renten for å bremse inflasjonen og utlånsveksten.

I en kunngjøring lørdag heter det at den ettårige utlånsrenten settes opp med 0,25 prosentpoeng til 5,81 prosent. Innskuddsrenten settes også opp med 0,25 prosentpoeng, til 2,75 prosent.

Konsumprisindeksen steg med 5,1 prosent fra november i fjor til november i år. Det er første gang på mer enn to år at inflasjonen har økt så mye. En årsak til økningen var at matvareprisene har steget med nesten 12 prosent på ett år. (©NTB)
highlander
12.01.2012 22:41
#2842

Endre
Boligkrakk i kinesiske spøkelsesbyer...
tas1
12.01.2012 23:21
#10603

Endre
Gammelt "nytt" highlander.
OldNick
18.01.2012 21:35
#12898

Endre
China, South Korea Affirm Commitment to Nuclear at Energy Summit

by Timothy Hurst
Jan. 16, 2012

In front of a packed house of dignitaries, delegates and energy industry leaders assembled for the 2012 World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Korean Prime Minister Kim Hwang-sik each independently reaffirmed their country's commitment to nuclear power as an essential part of a low carbon future. Speaking at the opening ceremony of the World Future Energy Summit in Abu Dhabi on Monday morning, the two leaders outlined their country's clean energy and energy efficiency accomplishments over the last several years, and outlined the framework for transitioning to a low carbon energy economy in the years to come.Chinese nuclear power plant

"We will gradually change the current energy mix dominated by coal," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said at the opening session of the 2012 World Future Energy Summit, by raising the output of "natural gas, renewable energy and nuclear energy," referring to nuclear as "safe, reliable and technologically mature."

Premier Wen outlined a long list of Chinese accomplishments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, capping them off by reporting that China now gets 11% of its electricity from renewable energy.

But Premier Wen underscored that the transition to clean energy would not be sudden. "Fossil fuels will continue for a long time," Wen told conference attendees. "So we need to follow a low-carbon approach to carbon-intense technologies," Wen said.

Mer på link over.
OldNick
23.01.2012 22:51
#12906

Endre
Interaktiv database som omfatter China's store utenlands investeringer siden 2005.

Meget bra, man får opp 2 grafer per land;

- Beløp investert i ulike sektorer (9)
- Beløp investert per år.

China Global Investment Tracker Interactive Map

Heritage Foundations 2012


China's investment overseas is increasingly important to the United States and the international community. The China Global Investment Tracker created by The Heritage Foundation is the only publicly available, comprehensive dataset of large Chinese investments and contracts worldwide beyond Treasury bonds. Details are available for almost 500 attempted transactions -- failed and successful -- over $100 million in all industries, including energy, mining, transportation and banking.

For more information on the growing Chinese investments

Chinese Outward Investment: More Opportunity Than Danger
Chinese investment is not taking the world by storm financially, nor will it in the near future. It does not pose a major threat to the U.S., either in the purchase of American assets or expansion of Chinese influence around the globe. At home, U.S. policy concerning Chinese investment should be more transparent. Overseas, the best reply is to expand American commercial influence--for instance, through free trade agreements. These steps will help to create more economic opportunities in the U.S. and enhance America's global position.

China's Investment Overseas in 2010
The dominant feature of Chinese outward investment in 2010 was a rush to South America, particularly Brazil. Overall investment grew only modestly. The energy and power sectors continued to be the most attractive for Chinese enterprises. Troubled or failed investments - a huge problem in 2009 - were much less prominent in 2010. An obvious implication for American policy is to expand trade and investment ties to South America and around the world.

Rebalancing Chinese Investment In The U.S.
Well over 90 percent of Chinese investment in the U.S. goes to low-yield government bonds. Investment is skewed toward the government due to the foolish and destructive American federal budget deficit, but also because political opposition blocks Chinese spending outside bonds. There are certainly sectors important to national security that should be off-limits but, beyond those, the U.S. should accept more non-bond investment.


Deler av databasen (de største transaksjonene >$100m) kan lastes ned i Excel-format her
dow
30.01.2012 14:36
#11620

Endre
While the number is likely influenced by the Chinese Lunar New Year, property consultant Shanghai UWin Real Estate Information Services Co. released an update on the Chinese new home sales market which is, to say the least troubling. Specifically, according to UWin, Shanghai new home prices fell 40.96% in the week ended January 29, compared to the previous week, to 16,144 yuan/square meter. If correct, it means that local homeowner violence is about to come back with a vengeance, as happened back in October when property developer office were stormed by angry mobs of home purchasers who saw an implosion in the indicated values of their purchases. Furthermore, not only has the market stalled, but it appears to be frozen, with just 4,400 square meters of new transactions closing, or an 89.21% drop on the week. And while the holiday has an impact, the volume is 36% of the 7 year average for Chinese holidays, so there is more in play here than just a seasonal grind. So just like the Baltic Dry where everyone is expecting a surge "any minute now" that the Chinese new year is over, nervous China bulls will have this new vertical to keep track of and make sure that it is merely a blip, as the alternative is a full blown Chinese housing bubble collapse.

More specifics from Bloomberg:
New home transactions by area plunged 89% W/w in Jan. 23-Jan. 29 to 4,400 sq/m, Uwin says in e-mailed statement.
Sales during Chinese New Year holiday decline to lowest level since 2006 for same period; volume 36% of 7-yr avg. for CNY holiday
Avg. new home price down 41% W/w
New home supplies plunged 87% W/w
Property developers may have to continue price cuts for cashflow to survive, Uwin analyst Zhijian Huang says
China may remove or relax home purchase restrictions during June-Oct period: Huang
Policy turnaround may boost sales before home prices rebound moderately: Huang
OldNick
30.01.2012 21:15
#12937

Endre
Skrekk og gru.

Kollaps??
OldNick
13.02.2012 20:30
#12995

Endre
After Power Switch, China Market Will Light Up

By LESLIE P. NORTON, Barron's
Feb. 11, 2012

Utdrag>
Hong Kong-based Value Partners' Cheah Cheng Hye says mainland P/Es aren't stretched. Some energy and housing Chinese companies look attractive.

The I Ching, one of China's most ambiguous ancient books, says "in springtime, the dragon is useless." It may well be speaking about Chinese equities. Despite the rally in Chinese bourses early this year, the coming change in Communist Party senior leadership and the uncertain global economy may cap further gains.

That is the view, at least, of Cheah Cheng Hye, who leads Hong Kong-based Value Partners. Cheah, a Malaysian-born former journalist, is a well-regarded investor who focused first on deeply mispriced small-caps, and then widened his net to include all sorts of companies benefiting from China's growth and growth in the Asia-Pacific.

With assets of $7.2 billion, the 19-year-old firm offers a range of funds, including long-only, hedge funds, and private-equity funds. Cheah's 30 co-workers do 2,500 company visits a year in China, and thus have well-founded opinions about the outlook for the economy and markets. As the lunar new-year celebrations ended and the year of the dragon began, we asked Cheah, 58, to share his views.

Barron's: What should we expect for China's economy?

...

In 2012, the economy is on track for growth of 8% to 9%. Last year, growth was estimated at 9.2%. China is in reasonable shape, but the era of double-digit growth-of 10%, 11% a year-is over. The Chinese government doesn't have as many bullets as it did before to stimulate the economy, as it did in 2009. Now, all the senior bankers in China are essentially members of the Communist Party and appointed by the government. The banks were ordered to increase their loans very, very sharply.

Now, there is much less room for loan growth-without running a serious risk of the economy overheating, an unacceptable bubble in the real-estate market and future nonperforming loans.

Also, once every 10 years, there's a big change in Chinese senior leadership. This is the year. Until this happens, there will be a slowdown in Chinese decision-making. Also, the global situation is the first I've faced in my 30-year career where we don't have a V-shaped recovery. This affects China too. Although there's a rally going on, I don't think it has strong legs.

But a hard landing isn't in the cards?

A hard landing in Chinese terms would be growth below the official target, currently set at 7% real gross-domestic-product growth over the next five years. But it's not the number, it's the speed of deceleration. If the Chinese economy decelerated from 11% growth to 7% within 36 months, that would be serious. Fortunately, that's not happening.

Lang artikkel på link.
highlander
27.02.2012 07:06
#2907

Endre
China's massive property supply threatens market

A virtual shutdown of China's new home sales during the Lunar New Year holiday week could signal a major crack in buyer confidence, with some analysts seeing prices heading lower as cash-strapped real-estate developers become more aggressive in their selling...
OldNick
05.03.2012 09:08
#13032

Endre
Kina senker listen

Fornøyd med lavere vekst


NTB, DN.no
05.03.2012

Kina tar sikte på en økonomisk vekst på 7,5 prosent i år, mer beskjedent enn på mange år, sa statsminister Wen Jiabao i sin rapport til kommunistpartiets kongress mandag.

I sin tale ved åpningen av kongressen sa Wen at målet blir redusert for å gi økonomien rom for å svekkes noe mens myndighetene gjennomfører nødvendige reformer.

- Vi tar sikte på å fremme en stødig og robust økonomisk utvikling, holde prisene stabile og vokte oss for finansiell risiko ved holde penge- og kredittstrømmen på et passende nivå. Vi tar en forsiktig og fleksibel tilnærming, sa Wen som går av neste år.

Han sa at den fremste prioriteringen i året som kommer, er å styrke forbruket og den innenlandske etterspørselen.

Ledelsen ser at det er nødvendig å øke etterspørselen på hjemmeplan for å holde produksjonen i gang i en tid da gjeldskrisen i Europa og svak vekst i USA demper etterspørselen etter kinesiske varer i utlandet.

Vil bedre inntektsfordelingen

For å øke etterspørselen hjemme vil partiet gjøre en innsats for bedre inntektsfordeling, økt inntekt for lav- og middelinntektsgruppene og oppmuntre til økt konsum, sa Wen.

Et mål om en vekst på 7,5 prosent er en reduksjon i forhold til det tidligere målet om 8 prosent.

Den faktiske veksten i fjor kom opp i 9,2 prosent, noe som likevel var en nedgang fra året før da veksten var på 10,4 prosent.

Landet har også satt seg som mål at inflasjonen skal ligge på rundt 4 prosent, uendret fra i fjor. Inflasjonen i 2011 endte på 5,4 prosent.

Talen til Wen, der han skisserte opp regjeringens prioriteringer i året som kommer, var første punkt på programmet for den ti dager lange partikongressen i Folkets store hall i sentrum av Beijing.

Wen og partileder Hu Jintao er inne i sine siste år som kinesiske ledere. I løpet av det neste året blir de pensjonister og en ny ledelse overtar.
OldNick
22.03.2012 15:31
#13106

Endre
Politisk uro av dimensjoner i China?

Jotakk, det kan bli interessant.

Går "det kinesiske mirakelet" av sporet pga. opprør elller kupp, går vi rett i en lengre resesjon, kanskje depresjon.

Investorene frykter maktkampen i Kina

DN.no
16.03.2012

Ulike fraksjoner kjemper om kontrollen over det kinesiske kommunistpartiet - og Kinas fremtid, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

Investorer frykter at maktkampen kan ramme de internasjonale finansmarkedene hardt.

Sentralmyndighetene i Beijing har ifølge DN store problemer med å kontrollere den kinesiske storbyen Chongqing, som har over 30 millioner innbyggere. Den lokale kommunistformannen Bo Xilai og Huang Qifan har skapt hva som blant annet Verdensbanken refererer til som «Chongqing-modellen», med høy lokal beslutningsmyndighet og tette partnerskap mellom det offentlige og privat sektor.

Chongqing blir ofte sammenlignet med Chicago ved begynnelsen av forrige århundre: høy økonomisk vekst, høy innflytting, korrupsjon, kriminalitet og en blodig kamp om den politiske makten.

Igår ble Bo Xilai ofret som partileder og leder for Kinas største byområde.

- Intensivert siden ifjor høst

- Det pågår en maktkamp mellom president Hu Jintaos fraksjon i kommunistledelsen og Chongqing-gruppen. Dette har blitt intensivert siden ifjor høst. Hus støttespillere frykter å miste innflytelse når han går av i 2013, sier en kinesisk professor som for tiden gjester et universitet i Singapore til DN.

De nesten 3000 delegatene som deltok på årets folkekongress har svært liten innflytelse på hva som skjer i toppledelsen i kommunistpartiet.

Den amerikanske meglerveteranen Art Cashin, som leder handelsdesken hos UBS ved New York-børsen, er en nestor som kolleger og internasjonale investorer lytter på.

Han frykter at det er konturene av en maktkamp i Kina som foregår på bakrommene.

- Vi vil undersøke dette nærmere da konsekvensene kan bli enorme. En maktkamp i Kina er garantert ikke priset inn i verdens finansmarkeder, sier han i et notat til kundene.
______

Åpenlys maktkamp i Kina

DN.no
22.03.2012

Beijing syder av rykter etter den viktigste politiske utrensningen på flere tiår, skriver Financial Times torsdag.

Avisen skriver at det ryktes at et militært kupp ble igangsatt av sjefen for det statlige sikkerhetsapparatet, Zhou Yongkang, noe som resulterte i skuddvekslinger i kommunistenes hovedkvarter i Beijing, Zhongnanhai.

"At det stadig oppstår motsetninger innenfor kommunistpartiets indre kjerne, er neppe overraskende; men det er høyst uvanlig at maktkampen utkjempes for åpen scene, skriver sjeføkonom Knut Anton Mork i Handelsbankens morgenrapport.

Politbyråets stående komité skal nå være dypt splittet.

- Splittelsene i den stående komiteen er nå like åpenlys som de var under Den himmelske freds plass-perioden, sier USAs ambassadør i Kina Jon Huntsman til Financial Times.

Handelsbanken skriver at saken i stor grad dreier seg om Bo Xilai, en av Kinas mektigste topper, som ble fjernet fra sin stilling forrige torsdag, etter å ha drevet alt for åpenlys valgkamp for seg selv.

"Slikt er ikke populært i utgangspunktet i et system der makta ligger hos partiet, ikke hos folket", skriver Mork.

Som øverste partileder i byprovinsen Chongqing har Bo satt i en kampanje mot korrupsjon, fattigdom og for mer økonomisk likhet.

New York Times beksriver endringene i Kina som det største politiske jordskjelvet på mange år.

Endret 22.03.2012 15:32 av OldNick
OldNick
22.03.2012 15:32
#13107

Endre
"Det som imidlertid gjorde Bos kampanje spesiell, er at han har drevet den fram med "røde" sanger og symboler i samme stil som Maos rødegardister under kutlurrevolusjonen. Kampanjen var rett og slett del av et storstilt forsøk på å bringe Kina tilbake til sin maoistiske opprinnelse og mot markedsliberale idéer. Dette vakte naturlig nok motstand", skriver Knut Anton Mork i morgenrapporten.

Nå skal Bo være under husarrest mens hans kone er anholdt for mistanke om korrupsjon - en anklage som ifølge Financial Times er ofte rettes mot høytstående som har tapt en maktkamp.

Handelsbanken skriver at oppgjøret kommer "på et tidspunkt der kinesisk vekst er i ferd med å dabbe av og det blir mer og mer klart at betydelige reformer i markedsliberal retning må til om ikke Kina skal kjøre seg fast på et middelmådig inntektsnivå i internasjonal sammenheng".

Mork tror statsminister Wen - som i lang tid har snakket om reformer i en markedsliberal og demokratisk retning - nå ser muligheten for å legge en ny kurs, bort fra den tunge maktutøvelsen slik verden så under kulturrevolusjonen og massakren rundt Den Himmelske freds plass i 1989, og over i mer demokratisk og markedsliberal retning.
______

Ekspertene er uenige om Kina

Danske Banks tror at Kina trolig unngår en «hard landing». JP Morgan mener det allerede har skjedd


TDN Finans, DN.no
15.03.2012

Aksjemarkedene ble forrige uke tynget av utsikter til svakere vekst i Kina.

Hard vs. myk landing

Oppfatningene om landet står foran en "nedbremsing", en "hard landing" eller en "myk landing" er delte.

På et frokostmøte i regi av Norske Finansanalytikeres Forening torsdag sa Danske Banks senioranalytiker Flemming J. Nielsen at landet trolig unngår en hard landing, mens JP Morgans sjeføkonom for Asia, Adrian Mowat, mener at landet allerede er inne i en hard landing.

- Dersom du ser på kinesiske makrotall, bør du slutte å diskutere om en hard landing. Kina er inne i en hard landing. Bilsalget er ned, sementproduksjonen er ned, storproduksjonen er ned og entreprenøraksjer er ned. Det er ikke noen debatt lengre, det er et faktum, sa Mowat på en konferanse onsdag, ifølge Bloomberg News.

Lengre artikkel på link

Endret 22.03.2012 15:32 av OldNick
OldNick
22.03.2012 18:25
#13108

Endre
Amerikansk etterretning: Rykter om millitærkupp på kinesisk Twitter

Bilder av tanks utenfor Beijing og rykter om statskupp er slettet av kinesiske myndigheter


Sverre Rørvik Nilsen, E24.no
22.03.2012

Amerikansk etterretning overvåker kinesiske nettsteder og sosiale medier. Den siste uken har utviklingen tatt en uventet og skremmende retning.

En rekke brukere rapporterer om tanks som entrer Beijing og skudd som blir avfyrt i forbindelse med en politisk kamp på aller høyest nivå mellom politiske ledere i Kina - og det snakkes til og med om et mulig militært kupp. Dette skriver Washington Times og China Digital Times.

Internettdiskusjoner skal ha inkludert bilder av tanks og andre militærkjøretøyer som beveger seg innad i Beijing.

Det var på «kinesiske Twitter», Sina Weibo og QQ Weibo, og forum på den kinesiske utgaven av Google, Baidu, at meldingene om «abnormaliteter» begynte å diskuteres 19. mars.

Kommentarene fra brukerne inkluderte rykter om at lederne av Shanghai hadde mistet makten, samt et mulig «militærkupp».

Disse meldingene ble raskt slettet av kinesiske sensur-myndigheter og torsdag var det ikke mulig å lese disse.

Meldingene fortalte blant annet om millitærkjøretøy som kontrollerte en av Beijings mest kjente gater, Changan, samt en betydelige mengde ikke-uniformert politi med metalldetektorer.

En annen melding refererte til «en mystisk atmosfære i Bejing». Denne ble raskt slettet.
______

Inside the Ring: Beijing coup rumors

By Bill Gertz, The Washington Times
Mar. 21, 2012

OldNick
10.04.2012 11:05
#13145

Endre
- Jeg er så negativ til Kina at jeg er en panda

Aksjene i Hongkong og Kina faller og analytiker forklarer E24 hva som egentlig skjer i verdens vekstmotor


Sverre Rørvik Nilsen, E24.no
10.04.2012

I etterkant av finanskrisen har det vært Kina som har sørget for at verdensøkonomien har vokst. Landet har i lang tid bidratt med vekst over åtte prosent.

Men vekstmaskinene begynner å vise tegn til lavere turtall.

Dette reflekteres i en rekke makroøkonomiske tall om den kinesiske økonomien, samtidig som aksjene faller i tirsdagens handel.

Pandaen

Før helgen intervjuet E24 med en Hongkong-basert analytiker i en større bank, som ønsker å være anonym. Han er veldig kritisk til Kina fremover:

- Jeg er så bearish (negativ i finanstermer) til Kina at jeg er en pandabjørn.

En av de negative punktene analytikeren la vekt på, var den manglende forbrukskulturen i Kina, og han meldte om nesten tomme kjøpesentre - selv i metropolen Shanghai.

- Forbrukssamfunnet er overhypet for Kina. Vi er fortsatt veldig langt fra noe slikt, sier han.

Mer på link over
OldNick
31.05.2012 00:06
#13318

Endre
How strong is China's economy?

Despite a recent slowdown, the world's second-biggest economy is more resilient than its critics think


The Economist
May 26th 2012

CHINA'S weight in the global economy means that it commands the world's attention. When its industrial production, house building and electricity output slow sharply, as they did in the year to April, the news weighs on global stockmarkets and commodity prices. When its central bank eases monetary policy, as it did this month, it creates almost as big a stir as a decision by America's Federal Reserve. And when China's prime minister, Wen Jiabao, stresses the need to maintain growth, as he did last weekend, his words carry more weight with the markets than similar homages to growth from Europe's leaders. No previous industrial revolution has been so widely watched.

But rapid development can look messy close up, as our special report this week explains; and there is much that is going wrong with China's economy. It is surprisingly inefficient, and it is not as fair as it should be. But outsiders' principal concern-that its growth will collapse if it suffers a serious blow, such as the collapse of the euro-is not justified. For the moment, it is likely to prove more resilient than its detractors fear. Its difficulties, and they are considerable, will emerge later on.

Lang artikkel paa link over
______

Special Report on China

The Economist
May 26, 2012
OldNick
07.06.2012 17:14
#13377

Endre
China vil stødig og sikkert øke utenlandsinvesteringene, og etterhvert som krisen i Europa utvikler seg, ser de muligheter til å investere i disse regionene som behøver kapital for å komme over krisen.

Kineserne ser etter råvarer, teknologi og (menneskelige) ressurser.

Det er estimert at kinesiske utenlandsinvesteringer vil nå mellom $1000 og $2000mrd. dette 10-året, med 1/4-del kanskje til Europa.

China investment in Europe triples

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing, FT.com
June 6, 2012

Chinese direct investment into Europe tripled in 2011 to $10bn, according to a new study that estimates Chinese companies are in the early stages of a global shopping spree that could see them spend as much as $250bn-$500bn in the region by 2020.

Although total Chinese outbound investment is still small compared to the size of its economy, most analysts believe the country is on the verge of ramping up its spending abroad, with crisis-hit Europe seen as one of the most attractive supermarkets.

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/806f926e-afc7-11e1-a025-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1x7WoCWJu

"Europe is experiencing the start of a structural surge in outbound direct investment in advanced economies by Chinese firms," says the new study, to be published on Thursday by Rhodium Group, an economic consultancy, in partnership with CICC,a Chinese investment bank.

The report predicts Chinese outbound direct investment will reach $1tn to $2tn between 2010 and 2020 and it expects around a quarter of that will go to Europe through mergers and acquisitions or greenfield investments.

Chinese companies are most interested in buying European technology, brands and high-end manufacturing.

Beijing has encouraged Chinese companies to increase their offshore investments to make them more competitive globally and also as a way of securing supplies of natural resources, technology and expertise for China.

The zou chu qu, or "going out" strategy as it is known in Chinese, is also aimed at diversifying the country's $3.2tn in foreign exchange reserves away from low-yielding investments like US Treasuries and into more tangible assets.

"Just as in the case of Japan at an earlier stage, China is trying to switch paper into hard assets and that process is accelerating," a senior executive at one of the world's largest private equity funds told the FT.

Separate studies by A Capital, a private equity firm that helps Chinese companies invest abroad, support Rhodium Group's estimate.

"At current growth rates and without a change in Chinese government policy we expect an additional $800bn in outbound Chinese direct investment in the five years from 2011 to 2016," said Andre Loesekrug-Pietri, chairman of A Capital.

Mer på link over
______

Rentekutt i Kina overrasker

Oslo Børs hopper i likhet med de europeiske børsene på nyheten om det første rentekuttet i Kina siden finanskrisen


TDN Finans, Espen Bjerke, DN.no
07.06.2012

Kina kutter ettårs innskudds- og utlånsrentene med 25 basispunkter med effekt fra fredag.

Dette er første gang den kinesiske sentralbanken kutter rentene siden 2008.

Bankene vil få lov til å tilby 20 prosent rabatt fra nøkkelrentene.

Oslo Børs hoppet et halvt prosentpoeng til 388,50 - en oppgang på totalt 0,65 prosent siden gårsdagens sluttnotering.

"Ikke hver dag med kinesiske rentekutt, faktisk for første gang siden 2008 og finanskrisen. De har heller brukt reservekravene RRR tidligere", skriver porteføljeforvalter Olav Chen i Storebrand Kapitalforvaltning

Endret 07.06.2012 17:22 av OldNick
OldNick
08.06.2012 11:50
#13384

Endre
P[stand om dramatisk nedkjøling i Kina?

Hmm, jeg er skeptisk...


Lite aktivitet: Analytikere i CLSA har vært ute på fabrikkbesøk for å demonstrere hvor lite aktivitet det er i stålsektoren i landet. Bildene øverst er de nye.


Disse bildene kan være bevis på at veksten i Kina bråstopper

Kinesiske analytikere oppsøkte kinesiske fabrikker, som viser at det er omtrent null aktivitet i stålsektoren


Sverre Rørvik Nilsen, Kristin Norli, E24.no
08.06.2012

Aktivitetsnivået i stålsektoren er en meget god indikator for aktiviteten ellers i en fremvoksende økonomi som Kinas.

For å bygge høyhus og gjennomføre store prosjekter, er det et voldsomt behov for stål. Dette har de siste ti årene ført til at det har vært høye priser på råvaren, og høy handelsaktivitet i stål i Kina.

Nå ser dette ut til å ha stoppet opp helt, viser en fersk rapport fra det kinesiske selskapet finansselskapet CLSA, med tittelen «Traders not trading».

Lite aktivitet

I forbindelse med undersøkelsen gjennomført av analytikeren har de reist ut til de forskjellige handelslagrene for stål, som viser at det enten er null eller veldig lav aktivitet.

«Vi så lite forretningsaktivitet i lagrene og etterspørsel fortsetter å være svak. Tradere får mindre kreditt fra bankene. Markedssentimentet er på bunnen og både tradere og sluttbrukere holder et minimalt lager», skriver Scott Laprise og Wenjun Bao i CLSA i rapporten.

Analytikerne påpeker at det er lite aktivitet, lav etterspørsel og en tung tid for metall-tradere.

«Vi besøkte ståltradere og lagre i Shanghai denne uken. Nå så vi et stille marked med lite aktivtiet. Et lager vi brukte å besøke før, var nå stengt ned som følge av lav etterspørsel», skriver Laprise og Bao.

«Et annet lager vi besøkte var omtrent tomt. Det var ingen ansatte som driftet kranene til å laste stål og kuttemaskinene var slått av. I løpet av vårt lager-besøk, var det kun en lastebil parkert hvor vi normalt ser mellom 5 og 6 varebiler».


Stopp: Etter årevis med meget høy byggeaktivitet, viser stålindustrien at denne kan være bremset betydelig ned.


Bremsen på

En Hongkong-basert analytiker E24 har vært i kontakt med, mener dette er et tydelig tegn på lavere aktivitet i Kina:

- Dette virker på meg som et tydelig tegn på at ting bremser i Kina. For produsentene er lagrene breddfulle, men for traderne er de nå helt tomme, sier analytikeren, som ønsker å være anonym, til E24.

Signalene fra den kinesiske stålindustrien stemmer overens med offisiell statistikk publisert tidligere i mai, som viser at den kinesiske industriproduksjonen steg med 9,3 prosent i april, som var mye svakere enn den ventede økningen på 12,2 prosent.

I tillegg var inflasjonen i april på 3,4 prosent, ned fra 3,6 prosent i mars.

Prisene uendret

Kjetil Myhre, daglig leder i Norsk Stålforbund, bekrefter at prisene på verdensmarkedet har vært kraftig preget av den kinesiske byggeaktiviteten i årene etter 2004.

Da gikk kineserne til enorme oppkjøp, og prisene på verdensmarkedet steg opp imot 300 prosent.

- Det siste året har vi imidlertid nesten ikke sett utslag i prisene. Det har kun beveget seg noen få prosentpoeng opp og ned det siste året, sier Myhre.

I dag ligger indeksverdien på stål til bygg (det vil si blant annet bjelker) på 189. Referanseverdi 100 er prisen slik den var i 2003.

Til sammenligning var toppverdien på 298 i april 2009. Siden har prisene altså stabilisert seg. Og i de siste analysene datert april er det ingen indikasjon på et prisfall, ifølge Myhre.

Endret 08.06.2012 11:50 av OldNick
OldNick
10.06.2012 22:47
#13394

Endre
China ruller videre oppover...

Vekst i eksport 15%, importen opp 13% mens inflasjonen er falt til 3%..

China May Export Growth Tops Estimates as U.S. Demand Rises

Paul Panckhurst, Bloomberg
June 10, 2012

China's May exports and imports increased at more than double the pace analysts estimated as trade with the U.S. rebounded, supporting growth in the world's second-biggest economy as domestic demand slows.

Overseas shipments climbed 15.3 percent from a year earlier to a record, the Beijing-based customs bureau said today, exceeding all 29 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Imports rose 12.7 percent compared with estimates for a 5.5 percent gain. The trade surplus also beat projections.

The data indicate Europe's debt woes have yet to produce a collapse in world trade on the scale of the 2008 global recession, even as Spain's request for a bank bailout threatens to deepen the crisis. Stronger exports may prompt Premier Wen Jiabao to be more measured in rolling out stimulus even as weaker-than-estimated output and retail sales data yesterday bolster the case for loosening.

"This shows it's not all doom and gloom," Song Seng Wun, an economist with CIMB Research Pte in Singapore, said after the trade figures were released. "Growth momentum may be slowing, but it's not about to crash."

China cut interest rates three days ago as the government counters the effects of Europe's debt crisis and seeks to engineer a resurgence in an economy that JPMorgan Chase & Co. predicts will grow at the slowest pace since 1999.

Output Moderates

Inflation in May was a lower-than-estimated 3 percent and producer prices dropped for a third straight month, statistics bureau data yesterday showed. Industrial production growth was below 10 percent for a second month, the first time that's happened in three years.

Retail sales, which aren't adjusted for inflation, rose the least in almost six years, excluding the January and February holiday months. Fixed-asset investment, excluding rural households and not adjusted for inflation, rose 20.1 percent in the first five months, the weakest increase for a January-May period since 2001, according to previously released data.

"These data should defeat any remaining complacency that the policy response has been adequate to maintain steady growth," Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong, said yesterday after the statistics bureau reports. "More dramatic easing, especially in housing and local government financing vehicles is urgently needed and necessary to avoid a hard landing in the Chinese economy."

Mer på link
OldNick
14.06.2012 19:31
#13420

Endre
Krise i Kina-klynger

DN.no
14.06.2012

De siste økonomiske statistikkene i Kina har sendt sjokkbølger inn i den politiske ledelsen, noe som trolig fremskyndet rentekuttet forrige uke, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

I storbyen Wenzhou var den økonomiske veksten på under fem prosent i første kvartal.

- Alle jeg kjenner sliter. Omsetningen har falt med 60 prosent i år. Det snakkes om å hjelpe mindre selskaper. Det er tomt prat, sier fabrikkeier Jiang Xiangsong til Bloomberg.

Han har tre uker på seg til å finne to millioner kroner for unngå konkurs.

Mørkt i «lighterbyen»

Wenzhou har siden reformene startet for over 30 år siden vært ett av Kinas kapitalistiske laboratorier med over 400.000 selskaper i byen, hvorav 70 prosent baserer seg på eksport.

Selskaper har etablert seg etter klyngemetoden og er ledende i verden innenfor blant annet fottøy, brilleinnfatninger, kulepenner og lightere.

Fra 3000 til under 100 lighterprodusenter

På det meste var det over 3000 produsenter av engangslightere i byen, som kontrollerte over 80 prosent av verdensmarkedet .

I dag er det under 100 lighterprodusenter igjen. Driftsmarginen har falt fra over 30 prosent for ti år siden til under to prosent i dag.

Mens rentekutt er ment å gi mer fart i verdens nest største økonomi, bidrar det også til å skape en boligboble og forsterke ubalansene i landet, ifølge Financial Times.

- Vi har hatt problemer tidligere, men i år er det fullstendig mørkt. Vi har ingen anelse i hvilken retning økonomien beveger seg i, sier direktør Chen Xijun i byens handelsforening i et intervju med Bloomberg.
OldNick
15.06.2012 09:07
#13425

Endre
Kina med nye tiltak for å få fart på økonomien

For å få fart på den fallende veksten, vurderer kinesiske myndigheter å gjøre det lettere for selskaper å hente finansiering i obligasjonsmarkedet


Marius Lorentzen, E24.no
14.06.2012

Veksten i den kinesiske økonomien har bremset betydelig opp den siste tiden. Den 7. juni valgte den kinesiske sentralbanken å kutte renten for første gang siden 2008.

Utviklingen har ført til bekymringer hos kinesiske myndigheter som nå vurderer flere tiltak for å få fart på veksten igjen.

Et av tiltakene skal være å lempe på reglene som regulerer hvor mye kapital bedrifter kan innhente i obligasjonsmarkedene, skriver Wall Street Journal.

Enklere lånetilgang

Kinesisk lov forbyr selskaper å ha mer enn 40 prosent av sine netto aktiva i utestående obligasjoner, ifølge WSJ.

I praksis kan derimot statseide selskaper med AAA-rating trekke fra obligasjoner med en løpetid på under ett år. Dermed kan de overstige den lovmessige grensen på 40 prosent.

Det konkrete forslaget går ut på å tillate alle selskaper i Kina med en rating på AA eller høyere å kunne bruke det samme unntaket.

Kilder avisen har snakket med forteller at forslaget venter på endelig godkjenning i den kinesiske sentralbanken.

Rimeligere finansiering

- Ettersom flere selskaper har nådd eller passert grensen på 40 prosent obligasjonsgjeld til netto aktiva, vil forslaget gi bedriftene adgang til billigere finansiering og dermed lette kostnadspresset, sa Adam Chen, obligasjonsanalytiker i Hong Yuan Securities til WSJ.

For selskaper med god kredittvurdering kan besparelsene være store.

Ifølge tall hentet inn av WSJ ligger renten på ettårige obligasjoner for AA-selskaper på 3,57 prosent, mens gjennomsnittsrenten for banklån over samme tidsperiode ligger på 6,31 prosent.

Ifølge flere analytikere skal lavere lånekostnader være utrolig viktig for å få fart på den økonomiske veksten.

- Kinesisk økonomi synes å stabilisere seg på at lavere nivå, og veksten i andre kvartal kan komme til å ende på 7 - 7,5 prosent på årsbasis, mener analytikere i Citi, ifølge Marketwatch.
OldNick
16.06.2012 15:12
#13442

Endre
Kinas president tror oppturen vil fortsette

Kinas økonomi utvikler seg i en svært positiv retning, fastslår president Hu Jintao


NTB, E245.no
16.06.2012

Dette året blir et viktig år. Vi starter på en ny femårsplan. Den økonomiske utviklingen i Kina ser positiv ut akkurat nå, sa Hu Jintao da dronning Margrethe holdt bankett i forbindelse med hans statsbesøk i Danmark fredag.

Hu fortalte videre at Kina ville fortsette å gjennomføre reformer for å sikre fortsatt vekst og utvikling i landet. Og reformprogrammet fungerer bra, fastslo han.

- Vi har styrket de makroøkonomiske reguleringene, veksten øker, prisene stabiliserer seg, og effektiviteten er god. Vi har bedret befolknings levekår, sa Hu.

Ifølge ham vil styrkingen av Kinas økonomi også gagne Danmark og andre europeiske land. Han forsikret om at Kina ville legge forholdene til rette for europeiske investorer.
______

China's May Passenger-Car Sales Exceed Analyst Estimates

Bloomberg News
June 9, 2012

China's passenger-vehicle sales rose more than analysts estimated in May as purchases of Toyota (7203) Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. cars recovered from disruptions caused by last year's natural disasters.

Deliveries, including multipurpose and sport-utility vehicles, rose by 22.6 percent to 1.28 million units last month, Chen Shihua, statistics department head at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said today at a briefing in Beijing. That beat the 1.2 million average of seven analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Sales in May beat estimates for a third straight month, with Toyota and Honda leading growth as factories recovered from last year's tsunami in Japan and floods in Thailand. CAAM Deputy Secretary General Yao Jie said at the briefing today that the industry is becoming more stable.

"Last May was pretty bad in terms of the passenger-car sales tally," Harry Chen, a Shenzhen-based analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Co., said before today's release. "Dealers are very cautious about the coming months and eager to find out whether the government will roll out stimulus policies."

Mer på link
OldNick
25.06.2012 10:56
#13472

Endre
Mener Kinas vekst er lavere enn meldt

Offisiell statistikk stemmer ikke med fakta, skriver New York Times


TDN Finans, DN.no
25.06.2012

Kinas økonomi utvikler seg svakere enn det som fremgår av offisiell statistikk. Det vises blant annet til rekordhøye kullagre som følge av lavere elektrisitetsproduksjon.

Det sier direktører i Kina samt vestlige økonomer til New York Times (NYT), i en artikkel publisert fredag kveld.

Ifølge avisens kilder har lokale og regionale myndigheter tvunget direktører innen kraftproduksjon til å ikke rapportere nedbremsingen i sin helhet til sentrale myndigheter.

Overrapportering

Det meldes også om overrapportering av økonomiske nøkkeltall som omsetning, resultat og skatt. Tjenestemenn oppfordrer angivelig selskaper til å ha et sett regnskap som viser bedring i tallene.

Avisens kilder anslår at feil og unøyaktigheter i rapporteringen blåser opp økonomiske indikatorer med 1-2 prosent, noe landets statistikkbyrå avviser.

Lavere strømforbruk

En høytstående direktør i Kina med tilgang til statistikk for nettdata i de industritunge provinsene Shandong og Jiangsu sier at strømforbruket i begge provinser i mai falt over ti prosent fra året før.

- Myndighetene vil ikke se det negative, sier en annen kraftverksdirektør til NYT. Han sier at de har blitt fortalt å rapportere fall som uendret.

Jonathan Sinton, som er IEAs Kina-energispesialist, sier til NYT at han ikke har hørt snakk om uriktig statistikk for Kinas elektisitetssektor. Sinton sier også at han tviler på om det vil være mulig å gjøre det for de fem største elektisitetsprodusentene som samlet produserer rundt halvparten av landets strøm.

Artikkelen virker inkosistent

Analysebyrået High Frequency Economics skriver i en oppdatering mandag at artikkelen fra New York Time virker inkonsistent.

«Samme dag skrev samme journalist om kraftmangel som følge av nedkjølingsbehovet om sommeren. Vi kan ikke forstå anklagene om at det blir produsert mindre kraft med stigende kullagre i havnene samtidig som det angivelig er kraftmangel i sommer», skriver High Frequency Economics
OldNick
29.06.2012 13:16
#13510

Endre
Vi fortjener noe bedre

For 15 år siden ble Hongkong kinesisk igjen. Mange er misfornøyde.


NTB, DN.no
29.06.2012

På søndag er det 15 år siden Hongkong igjen ble en del av Kina. Mange i den tidligere britiske kronkolonien trives dårlig med å bli fjernstyrt stadig strengere fra Beijing og ser ingen grunn til å feire dagen.

Statsviteren Brian Fong ved Hongkongs City University er bekymret for fremtiden. Makthaverne har lovet frie valg i 2017, men observatører frykter at utviklingen går i gal retning og at opposisjonelle i stadig sterkere grad vil bli kneblet.

- Vi fortjener noe bedre enn dagens forhold. Hongkong er en verdensby med høyt utdannede innbyggere, men disse innbyggerne har ikke stemmerett. Det er en tragedie, sier Brian Fong til nyhetsbyrået TT.

«Styrt demokrati»

- Jeg er redd Hongkong vil bli noe i retning av Singapore eller Russland, med såkalt styrt demokrati. Vi ser allerede tendenser til dette, fortsetter Fong, som mener selvstyreregjeringen i Hongkong er svak og bare får halvparten av sine forslag satt ut i livet.

Søndag får selvstyreregjeringen ny sjef, da Leung Chungying erstatter Donald Tsang. Leung betraktes som Beijing-vennlig, og Kinas president Hu Jintao skal være til stede under innsettelsen av Leung.

Forkjempere for menneskerettighetene vil at Hu skal lytte til krav om mer demokrati. Ifølge flere Hongkong-innbyggere som TT har snakket med, har de lokale medienes selvsensur blitt strengere og politiet går hardere til verks mot demonstranter.

Utbredt misnøye

- Den nåværende regjeringen sitter så å si på fanget til makthaverne i Beijing. Mange i Hongkong er misfornøyde med situasjonen, og dette kan føre til sosial uro og omfattende konflikter, mener Brian Fong.

Mer på link over
OldNick
02.07.2012 09:19
#13542

Endre
Nedtur for kinesisk industri

Aktiviteten i kinesisk industri minket i juni for åttende måned på rad, ifølge bankgiganten HSBC


NTB, E24.no
02.07.2012

Banken melder også at ordreinngangen fra eksportmarkedet var den svakeste siden mars 2009.

HSBCs innkjøpsindeks sank fra 48,4 i mai til 48,2 i juni og har nå ligget under den viktige 50-streken, som skiller oppgang fra nedgang i økonomien, siden oktober i fjor.

Også Kinas offisielle innkjøpsindeks, som ble lagt fram søndag, sank i juni til det laveste nivået på sju måneder. Men den ligger fortsatt like over 50-grensen, på 50,2.
______

Veksten i Kina kan være historisk lav

I lang tid har man sett en oppbremsing i Kina ved alternativ måling. Nå viser selv Kinas egen statistikk at dette er tilfelle


Sverre Rørvik Nilsen, E24.no
01.07.2012

Det burde ikke komme som et sjokk, for du har blitt advart mot det i lang tid. Veksten i verdens vekstmaskin, Kina, er i ferd med å bremse kraftig ned.

Dette har vært mulig å se i en rekke alternative makroøkonomiske indikatorer, mens offisiell kinesisk statistikk har holdt seg meget sterk - selv om mange observasjoner skulle tilsi at veksten stanser.

- Vekstdrømmen er død

Frem til nylig holdt den offisielle kinesiske statistikken seg sterk, men nå begynner også denne å vise at Kina bremser.

Søndag ettermiddag presenterte kinesiske myndigheter den offisielle innkjøpssjef-indeksen (PMI), som er en indeks som økonomer benytter seg av for å måle fremtidig etterspørsel i økonomien.

Nå viser denne at veksten er en hårsbredd unna en økonomisk revers.

Indeksen falt i juni til 50,2, som betyr at veksten i Kinas økonomi nå er tilnærmet nøytral, snarere enn å skyte fart (se faktaboks for forklaring på hva indeks-tallet betyr).

Det siste fallet kommer måneden etter det store indeks-fallet fra 53,3 til 50,4 for mai.

E24 snakket søndag med en økonom i en utenlandsk bank i Hongkong, som uttalsr seg med forbehold om å forbli anonym:

- For meg er allerede drømmen om kinesisk vekst død.

- Disse kinesiske politikerne er avhengige av kraftig vekst og inflasjon i økonomien.

Det har vært forventninger om økonomisk vekst på mellom 8,1 og 8,3 prosent i Kina i andre kvartal i år (fra samme periode året før), men disse ser ut til å være for høye.

Sjeføkonomen i Mizuho Securities Asia, Shen Jianguang, anslår til Bloomberg News at veksten i første halvår vil være så lav som 7,2 prosent.

Skulle den kinesiske veksten ende på 7,2 prosent for 2012, vil dette være laveste vekst i nyere historie (se faktaboks).

Fortsatt store forskjeller

Men kinesisk offisiell statistikk kan fortsatt vise et bilde som er for positivt, for private undersøkelser viser langt mindre optimistiske innkjøpssjefer.

Stopp i stål

Aktivitetsnivået i stålsektoren er en meget god indikator for aktiviteten ellers i en fremvoksende økonomi som Kinas, slik E24 nylig skrev.

For å bygge høyhus og gjennomføre store prosjekter, er det et voldsomt behov for stål. Dette har de siste ti årene ført til at det har vært høye priser på råvaren, og høy handelsaktivitet i stål i Kina.

Nå ser dette ut til å ha stoppet opp helt, viser en fersk rapport fra det kinesiske finansselskapet CLSA, med tittelen «Traders not trading».

«Vi så lite forretningsaktivitet i lagrene og etterspørsel fortsetter å være svak. Tradere får mindre kreditt fra bankene. Markedssentimentet er på bunnen og både tradere og sluttbrukere holder et minimalt lager», skrev Scott Laprise og Wenjun Bao i CLSA i rapporten.

Tomme leiligheter

De siste årene har E24 skrevet om Kinas mange spøkelsesbyer. Disse har i lang tid blitt brukt som bevis på total mangel på etterspørsel innad i K
OldNick
10.07.2012 14:27
#13562

Endre
Nedturen fortsetter i Asia

- Kina kommer ikke til å redde verden, sier aksjemegler om ferske kinesiske handelstall


Øistein Svelle, W24.no
10.07.2012

Tirsdag la kinesiske myndigheter frem tall som viste at landet import vokste langt saktere enn analytikere hadde ventet, og det bidro til dårlig stemning på børsene i Asia.

Juni-importen til Kina var 6,3 prosent høyere enn året før, mot en forventet vekst på 11,3 prosent. Det er også langt lavere enn mai-veksten på 12,7 prosent sammenliknet med året før.

- Trenden er at Kinas økonomi bremser opp, og implikasjonen av det er at veksten i andre kvartal vil vise seg å være svak, sier aksjemegler Andrew Sullivan i Hongkong-baserte Piper Jaffray.

Kinas BNP-vekt for årets andre kvartal legges frem fredag denne uken, og spekulasjonene er allerede i gang om at myndighetene snart vil senke kapitalkravene til landets banker ytterligere for å få fart på økonomien igjen.

- Det er åpenbart at den globale nedturen har en effekt på Kina, og Kina kommer ikke til å redde verden, fortsetter Sullivan.
OldNick
13.07.2012 18:43
#13576

Endre
Lavere økonomisk vekst i Kina

Veksttakten i den kinesiske økonomien sank til 7,6 prosent i andre kvartal, ifølge nye tall som ble lagt fram fredag. Nivået er det laveste på flere år


Øistein Svelle, NTB, E24.no
13.07.2012

Nedgangen i veksten betyr at veksttakten i første halvår var på 7,8 prosent. I første kvartal var tilsvarende tall 8,1.

Anslag nyhetsbyrået Bloomberg hadde hentet inn fra økonomer på forhånds viste et medianestimat på 7,8 prosent for veksttakten i andre kvartal, så de offisielle tallene var noe under dette.

Forrige gang veksten i Kinas bruttonasjonalprodukt var like lav som den har vært de siste månedene, var midt under finanskrisen for over tre år siden.

Også veksten i industriproduksjonen og varehandelen er på vei nedover. Veksttakten i industriproduksjonen lå på 9,5 prosent i juni, en liten nedgang sammenlignet med 9,6 prosent i mai.

Investorer og analytikere har ventet spent på de nye kinesiske tallene, siden de kan gi en pekepinn om hvordan økonomien i andre deler av verden vil utvikle seg.

- Fredagens fremleggelse får investorer til å fokusere på et av de største usikkerhetsmomentene i verden i dag: Hvor hard landingen blir i Kina, sa sjeføkonom i Terra, Jan Andreassen til E24 i forkant av at tallene ble lagt frem.
______

På tross av fallende vekst, er innenlandsforbruket i China fortsatt sterkt voksende.

Bilsalget er en utmerket indikator på forbruket.
I China selges nå flere biler enn i USA, og China's bilsalg på 2 måneder tilsvarer hele Norges bilpark (antall).

Fremdeles voldsomt vekst i bilsalget i Kina

Bilsalget i Europa sliter tungt om dagen. Det kan man over hodet ikke si om salget i Kina


Øystein Schmidt, HegnarOnline
11.07.2012

Bilsalget i Kina steg 9,9 prosent i juni, melder landets interesseorganisasjon for bilprodusenter, ifølge Bloomberg og TDN Finans.

Det ble totalt solgt 1,28 millioner biler, litt mer enn ventet.

En undersøkelsen blant 14 analytikere i forkant viste nemlig at man i snitt ventet et salg på 1,27 millioner biler.
OldNick
17.07.2012 14:20
#13599

Endre
Kinas vekst bremser

Laveste på tre år. - Reiser enda flere spørsmål om tilstanden i kinesisk økonomi, mener analytiker.

Einar Takla, NTB, DN.no
13.07.2012


Veksttakten i den kinesiske økonomien sank til 7,6 prosent i andre kvartal, ifølge nye tall som ble lagt fram fredag. Nivået er det laveste på flere år.

Andre kvartal ble det sjette kvartalet på rad med fallende veksttakt. Veksten var hårfint svakere enn analytikerne hadde ventet. Medianen blant analytikernes prognoser var en vekst på 7,7 prosent.

Svakeste på tre år

Nedgangen i veksttakten betyr at veksten i første halvår var på 7,8 prosent. I første kvartal var tilsvarende tall 8,1.

Det er over tre år siden forrige gang veksten i Kinas bruttonasjonalprodukt var like lav som de siste månedene.

- Nedgangen var riktignok godt på linje med forventningene, men reiser enda flere spørsmål om tilstanden i kinesisk økonomi, skriver analytiker Johan JHaveus i en oppdatering fra SEB fredag.

Han mener at det bak totaltallene gjemmer seg en dramatisk forandring der eksportveksten er blitt mer enn halvert i løpet av første halvår sammenlignet med samme periode ifjor - fra 24 til 9 prosent. Samtidig har det skjedd en avmatning i boligmarkedet.

Krisetiltak

For å få fart på veksten nå, har myndighetene iverksatt tiltak for å stimulere økonomien. I forrige uke ble renta kuttet for andre gang på én måned. En kraftig nedgang i inflasjonen, til rundt to prosent fra fjorårets topp på nærmere syv prosent, har åpnet for at sentralbanken kan bruke ytterligere stimulanser. Tall for bankenes utlån bekrefter også at myndighetene forsøker å få fart på økonomien igjen. Nye lån økte til 920 milliarder renmimbi i juni, opp fra 793 milliarder renmimbi i mai.

- De fleste regner med at statsminister Wen Jiabao vil måtte øke stimulansetiltakene gjennom ytterligere pengepolitiske lettelser og økte statlige investeringer for å stabilisere økonomien. Samtidig har han til nå vært tydelig på at regjeringen ikke kommer til å lansere et like omfattende stimulanseprogram som etter finanskrisen i 2008, skriver Javeus i oppdateringen fra SEB.

Mer på link
______

Kinas advarer mot økonomiske vanskeligheter

NTB, DN.no
16.07.2012

Kinas statsminister Wen Jiabao varsler om at Kinas økonomiske styrke ikke er stabil, og at verdens nest største økonomi kan møte på vanskeligheter.

Under et besøk i den sørvestlige provinsen Sichuan oppfordrer han til mer omfattende tiltak for å styrke vitaliteten og dynamikken i den økonomiske veksten.

- Den økonomiske vekstraten er fortsatt innenfor myndighetenes styringsintervall, som ble satt tidligere i år, og stabiliseringspolitikken fungerer, sa Wen ifølge det kinesiske nyhetsbyrået Xinhua.

Laveste på tre år

Men Kinas økonomi vokste i sitt laveste tempo på mer enn tre år annet kvartal i år.

Økningen var på 7,6 prosent, noe som er det laveste siden 6,6 prosent i begynnelsen av 2009 under finanskrisen.

- Når vi møter problemene, vanskelighetene og risikoene, spesielt presset fra en avtakende økonomisk vekst, må vi også erkjenne at grunnen for økonomisk vekst er god, og det er fortsatt en masse drivkrefter for økonomisk vekst, sier Wen.
______

Kina vil gjennomføre tiltak for å stimulere økonomien

TDN Finans, DN.no
16.07.2012

Statsminister Wen Jiabao i Kina vil gjennomføre effektive tiltak for å stimulere den økonomiske veksten i landet. Det skriver nyhetsbyrået Xinhua mandag.

"I andre halvår av 2012 vil myndighetene øke innsatsen for å forhåndsinnstille og finjustere politikken, samt gjøre beslutningene mer målrettet, forutseende og effektiv", sa Wen.

Endret 17.07.2012 14:20 av OldNick
OldNick
17.07.2012 14:21
#13600

Endre
Wen sa videre at Kinas økonomiske fundament fremdeles er bra og at landet fortsatt har stort vekstpotensiale i lys av sommerens avling, avtagende inflasjon og stigende inntekter.
______

IMF: Mister troen på verdensøkonomien

Senker prognoser for økonomisk vekst


Johann D. Sundberg, E24.no
16.07.2012

Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) senker sine anslag for veksten i verdensøkonomien.

- I løpet av de tre siste månedene har veksten i verdensøkonomien, som ikke var sterk i utgangspunktet, vist ytterligere svekkelse, skriver IMF i sin kvartalsvise oppdatering av situasjonen i verdensøkonomien.

Nå mener IMF at verdensøkonomien vil vokse med 3,5 prosent i år. Det er 0,1 prosentpoeng lavere enn i april da pengefondets tallknusere kom med sine økonomiske stalltips forrige gang.

Anslaget for veksten i 2013 er redusert med 0,2 prosentpoeng til 3,9 prosent.

IMF har også nedjustert anslaget for veksten i den amerikanske økonomien. Nå tror de veksten blir 2,0 prosent i år og 2,3 prosent neste år. Det er en nedjustering av prognosen med 0,1 prosentpoeng for begge årene.

Vekstanslagene for Storbritannia blir kraftigere nedjustert. Anslaget er redusert med 0,6 prosentpoeng for begge årene.

tillegg advarte den mektige organisasjonen mot at det kan bli enda verre, om ikke Europas politikere handler raskt og dyptpløyende nok til å temme den økonomiske krisen i regionen.

- Den mest overhengende faren er at eurokrisen øker i omfang fordi politikerne ikke handler tilstrekkelig eller for sent, heter det i rapporten IMF la fram mandag.
______

WTO: Kina bryter med globale handelsregler

Kina bryter med reglene til Verdens handelsorganisasjon (WTO) i deres diskriminering av utenlandske bankkortleverandører, ifølge WTO


NTB, DN.no
16.07.2012

Kina bryter med WTO-reglene når de krever at alle bankkort som utstedes i Kina må samarbeide med det statlige selskapet China UnionPay (CUP) og bære deres logo, var dommen fra et tvisteløsningspanel oppnevnt av WTO mandag.

I tillegg er det imot reglene at alle bankterminaler i Kina må bruke CUPs nettverk, sa panelet.

Amerikanske myndigheter var tidlig ute med å kalle dommen en seier.

- Det viser at vi må fortsette å gå etter Kinas forsøk på å forstyrre globale handelsregler, sa talsmann for Det hvite hus, Jay Carney.
______

Kina dobler infrastruktur-investeringer

Gjentar 2009-stimuleringen med jernbaneinvesteringer


TDN Finans, DN.no
17.07.2012

Kinas infrastrukturinvesteringer i jernbanen vil kunne bli fordoblet i andre halvår i år, sammenlignet med nivået i første halvår. Det skriver Bloomberg News tirsdag.

Nyhetstjenesten fremholder at investeringer i jernbaneutbygging var en sentral del også i Kinas stimuleringspakke i 2009.

Investeringene for hele 2012 ventes å utgjøre 448,3 milliarder yuan, eller 70,3 milliarder euro, ifølge hjemmesiden til Anhui-avdelingen av Den nasjonale utviklings- og reformkommisjonen.

Dokumentet indikerer en økning på ni prosent fra en tidligere investeringsplan på 411,3 milliarder yuan. I første halvår var investeringene på 148,7 milliarder yuan.

- Kinas stimuleringstiltak vil kunne bli kraftigere enn markedet har ventet. Det kan ventes flere positive tegn i kommende måneder, som vil bekrefte at landets vekstfremmende tiltak er i ferd med å gi resultat, sier Zhang Zhiwei, en Hongkong-basert økonom i Nomura Holdings med fortid i Det internasjonale pengefond (IMF), til nyhetstjenesten.
OldNick
18.07.2012 09:09
#13611

Endre
Meget vanskelig arbeidsmarked fremover

TDN Finans, DN.no
18.07.2012

Den kinesiske statsministeren Wen Jiabao sier at situasjonen i arbeidsmarkedet vil bli meget vanskelig fremover.

Det skriver Bloomberg News onsdag.

Statsministeren understreker at den svakeste økonomiske utviklingen siden 2009, vil føre til økende tap av arbeidsplasser.

Wen sa på et regjeringsmøte tirsdag om landets sysselsetting at regjeringen vil fortsette å iverksette en mer proaktiv arbeidsmarkedspolitikk, fremgår det av en erklæring som er lagt ut på regjeringens hjemmeside.

Ifølge erklæringen sier Wen at sysselsettingssituasjonen vil bli mer kompleks.

I en kommentar til en næringslivsdelegasjon fra USA sa Wen tirsdag at det er «flere faktorer av ustabilitet og usikkerhet» i verdensøkonomien, som står overfor «nedadgående press», melder det kinesiske nyhetsbyrået Xinhua.

Wen tok til orde for styrket samarbeid og gjensidig tillit mellom USA og Kina, og at landene «rolig» må håndtere saker som gjelder forbindelsene innen økonomi og handel.
OldNick
12.09.2012 22:07
#13750

Endre
Fra en av Skagens forvaltere...

En sommer er over

Av Tore Bang, Forvalter i Skagenfondene
12.09.2012

Utdrag:
Etter en god sommer for aksjeinvestorene fikk pessimistene igjen overtaket mot slutten av august.

Det var intet nytt under solen, gjeldskrisen i Europa og lavere vekst i Kina "selger" fortsatt godt.

...

Kinasyndromet

Den andre store fryktfaktoren i aksjemarkedene er den svakere veksten for verdenslokomotivet Kina. I et nylig foredrag kunne svenske Klas Eklund, seniorøkonom og Kinaekspert i SEB (ga i 2011 ut boken "Kina, den nygamle supermakten") berolige forsamlingen om at det ikke var så ille i Kina som man kunne få inntrykk av.

Riktignok påpekte han at det på kort sikt var litt grums i maskineriet, med politisk uro på toppen av maktapparatet og bebudede stimulanser som tar lenger tid enn forventet. Så kortsiktig kan veksten få seg en dipp under hva som er sannsynlig vekst de nærmeste årene.

Men som Eklund påpekte; Man blir litt fartsblind når det foreventes at Kina skal fortsette med tosifret vekst år etter år. Det er bare ett land som har klart å opprettholde en så lang årrekke med tosifret årlig vekst som Kina, og det er verken USA eller Japan, men nabolandet Taiwan. Mange ser ikke ut til helt å forstå hvor stor den kinesiske økonomien nå har blitt. En økonomisk vekst fremover på 6-7 prosent er jo et større bidrag til verdensøkonomien enn ti prosent for noen år tilbake.

Den store utfordringen Kina nå står overfor er å øke vridningsfarten fra eksport til en mer innenlands konsumdrevet økonomi. Rammebetingelsene begynner å komme på plass. Helt vesentlig for å lykkes er oppbyggingen av et sosialt sikkerhetsnett, som nå begynner å ta fasong. Selv om konsumet i Kina øker i et bra tempo, øker sparingen enda raskere. I dag ligger spareraten på 40 prosent.

At det befinner seg noen spøkelsesbyer rundt om i de nye byene i Kina, som media er flinke til å belyse, er ikke Eklund så bekymret for. Daglig er flere titalls tusen bønder på vei inn til byene og de tomme leilighetene. Myndighetene har gjennom økte skatter, restriksjoner på kreditt og hvor mange leiligheter man kan eie, klart å kjøle ned eiendomsmarkedet. Det generelle prisnivået er nå fallende, så eiendomsbobler tror Eklund kineserne klarer å styre unna.

For globale aktører innen "harde varer" tror Eklund det kan bli mindre drahjelp å hente fra Kina fremover. Han ser for seg at landet blir verdensledende innen alt fra mobiltelefoner til biler samt grønn teknologi som vindkraft, vannkraft og solenergi. Globale aktører innen "softe varer" kan derimot fortsatt leve godt i Kina.

Mange frykter også de galopperende lønningene i Kina. Disse holdes foreløpig i sjakk ved at produksjonen flyttes fra pressområder langs kysten til innlandet, som fremdeles er rikt på billig arbeidskraft og tomme leiligheter.
OldNick
13.09.2012 20:52
#13760

Endre
SPOTLIGHT: Will Chinese demand start to pick up?

Met.Bull.
Sept. 12, 2012

The sentiment in the Chinese commodity markets, especially that of steel, appeared to have picked up a little after Beijing announced its approval for more than 20 infrastructure projects last week as it moves to revive its economy.

Since Friday, the prices of base metals and steel markets have been on the rebound.

But Chinese commodity prices have been in a downward trend since the beginning of 2012.

Prices appear as if they are stuck in a swamp - their movements causing them to sink even further.

The question on everyone's mind now is whether Chinese demand, the main driving force behind global commodity markets in recent years, will start to pick up.

During a recent tour of nickel pig iron and stainless steel plants in Jiangsu and Shandong provinces, industry insiders gave Metal Bulletin's sister publication Steel First their take on the state of the Chinese economy.

Most of them appeared to have a negative outlook.

While market participants are looking to the Chinese government to support the economy as it did during the 2008 global financial crisis, they recognise that things are different this time.

"In 2008, the crisis passed very quickly and companies did not suffer too much. But the market began to deteriorate from late 2011. Now, very few companies are making money and manufacturers' operation rates have fallen.

"The country's economy took a turn for the worse this year and it will not be easy to turn it around immediately," an official from a stainless steel mill said.

Chinese steel producers could only make 1.68 yuan ($0.27) for every tonne of crude steel produced during the first seven months of 2012, China Iron & Steel Assn (Cisa) deputy chief Wang Xiaoqi said.

An official at Hubao Stainless, a private producer of stainless wire, bar and plate in Jiangsu province's Dainan town, related how the company felt about this year's situation.

"We started our stainless steel business in the 1990s, but it has never been this difficult to make a profit before. The situation is very bad," the company's senior manager said, shaking his head.

Dainan is well known throughout the country as a stainless steel-producing town. There is a large number of small, family-run stainless steelmaking plants here. Their production capacity is over 2 million tpy.

"Our output level in January-August was 30% lower than the same period last year. But even with that, our operation rate was the highest in Dainan because many of the stainless steelmakers nearby suspended production," he said.

"In March and April this year, there was a big pile of stainless plate here, but look at it now," the official said, pointing to a spot where there were just a few pieces of stainless steel plates.

Most of the stainless steelmakers, nickel pig iron producers and nickel ore traders who were part of the entourage also shook their heads and sighed about how difficult it is for them to make a profit.

"We have to be cautious; there are a lot of downward risks. Most of us don't own any stock now. Instead, we are taking orders from nickel pig iron producers before we buy material from nickel ore miners in order to earn some 'safe' agent fees," a major nickel ore trader who used to import nickel ore from Indonesia to China told Steel First.

Signs of trouble

One indication of just how serious things are in China is its official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), which fell to a nine-month low of 49.2 in August.

Another sign of China's troubles is the drop in its consumption of electricity.

Even during the peak summer season, some local governments were giving rebates to producers of ferro-alloy, manganese and nickel pig iron, among others, in a bid to prop up loss-making

Endret 13.09.2012 20:53 av OldNick
OldNick
13.09.2012 20:53
#13761

Endre
plants to save jobs and support the local economy.

China's electricity output fell 2.03% month-on-month in August to 444.5 terawatt hours, according to data from the State Electricity Regulatory Commission.

Lack of funds

Many in the market are expecting the government to announce more stimuli for the economy, especially once the Chinese Communist Party concludes its leadership transition during its 18th national congress in October.

"Once the new group of leaders are confirmed during the conference, and the political situation becomes more stable, I expect the government to start doing something to help domestic enterprises," a second nickel ore trader said.

But will the government be able to do it?

There are even doubts about whether it can afford the roughly 1 trillion yuan ($158 billion) needed to implement the infrastructure plans it announced last week.

"Both the central government and the local government have no money to support these projects. The central government don't have money because it invested too much on railway and infrastructure in previous years.

"The local governments are also short of money, as companies are making less money this year, which translates to lower tax revenues. The local governments have also accumulated a lot of debt due to recent years' spending," an official from a major stainless steel mill said.

"I am deeply worried about the outlook for 2013. There is no way for the demand to pick up."

Inflation

"The government is not able to print money like it did in 2008 to bolster the economy anymore, as the country's inflation rate has gone up to a very high level. It is not only housing costs that are being affected, but also food and other costs," a source from another stainless steel mill said.

"The middle-income group are finding it more difficult to make a living compared with previous years. Simply put, the 100 yuan that you have this year can buy much less than the 100 yuan you have five years ago," he added.

He too does not believe the central government can do anything this time to match what it did in 2008 to bolster the domestic economy.

Real estate

The government is unlikely to make any policy changes for the real estate industry, a market source said.

"Premier Wen [Jiabao] will stick to his commitment of keeping property prices at an 'affordable level' for the Chinese people," he said.

Borrowing woes

Big companies like Baosteel and Taigang have no problems when it comes to borrowing from banks, as they have the backing of the central government, the market source said.

It is a different matter altogether for small and medium-sized private companies, especially those in coastal areas including Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Fujian provinces. These companies tend to have no choice but to borrow from private moneylenders at very high interest rates.

Most of these companies had difficulty turning a profit this year, which resulted in many of them being unable to service their loans. Many absconded after going bankrupt, which resulted in the credit line between the smaller companies and the private lenders being broken.

"While the big, state-owned companies have access to a steady stream of funds from the banks, the small and medium-sized companies are unable to even borrow money to maintain their normal operations.

"As a result, many of them have no choice but to downsize," the market source said.

Judging from the feedback from the industry insiders, this appears to be the start of another long, difficult slog across the marshy swampland.

Endret 13.09.2012 20:53 av OldNick
OldNick
22.09.2012 15:40
#13796

Endre
Et par artikler om den demografiske utviklingen i China.

Det er nå 12 år siden China gikk over til å ha "En aldrende befolkning" (etter FN-definisjon), da passerte de 10+ av befolkningen 60+.




Ageing China: Changes and challenges

By Dr Wei Zhang Senior fellow, China Policy Institute at Nottingham University
Sept. 19, 2012


Hard facts:

- Total population: 1.34 billion
- Fertility rate: In 1967, it was 5.91 children per woman; by 2012 it had dropped to 1.6
- Male/female ratio at birth: 1.19 in 2012, meaning more boys are born than girls. The usual rate is between 1.02 and 1.08.
- Median age: in 2010, it was 34.5, by 2050 it is expected to be 48.7
- Life expectancy: 43 in 1960, rose to 73 by 2010

Source: UN



Utdrag>
There are currently 980 million people in the active labour force in China. According to Professor Zhen Binwen of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, this number will reach its peak in 2015, but then start to decrease dramatically.

End of cheap labour?

Professor Cai Fang, a Chinese labour economist, estimates that the rapid decrease of the labour force will lower China's annual growth rate by 1.5 percentage points from now to 2015, and it will decrease a further percentage point during the period from 2016-2020.

China's demographic dividend will end - the country's fast economic growth in the past three decades has been mainly led by exports, which are dependent on an abundant and cheap labour supply.

A fast decline of the labour force will cause shortages and a rapid increase in wages. Such changes will weaken the competitiveness of China's export industries in the international market, affecting economic growth.

China will need to undertake dramatic economic restructuring to deal with this problem.

______________________




Ageing China: Changes and challenges

China's population is ageing. By 2050 more than a quarter of the population will be over 65 years old and younger generations face an unprecedented burden of care.

BBC News Asia
Sept. 19, 2012


Endret 22.09.2012 15:42 av OldNick
OldNick
09.10.2012 09:34
#13909

Endre
Kinas industri faller videre

Lønnsomheten blant industriselskapene i Kina falt for femte måned på rad i august


TDN Finans, DN.no
27.09.2012

Det melder Kinas nasjonale statistikkbyrå torsdag, ifølge Bloomberg News.

Selskapenes nettoresultat falt 6,2 prosent på årsbasis til 381,2 milliarder yuan, som representerer den største nedgangen hittil i år.

Dagens rapport kan komme til å øke presset på Kinas statsminister Wen Jiabao på å øke tiltakene for å støtte veksten i Kinas økonomi.

- Kinas industrilønnsomhet vil sannsynligvis ikke se noe bedring før tidlig i 2013, eller til og med midten av 2013. Sentralbanken må holde en hensiktsmessig likviditetspolitikk for å støtte vekst, og den kan gjøre det gjennom å tilføre midler gjennom omvendte repo-transaksjoner eller kutte bankenes reservekrav, sier sjeføkonom Joy Yang i Mirae Asset Securities til Bloomberg News.

Mer på link over
______

Kina: - Japan har stjålet våre øyer

NTB, DN.no
28.09.2012

Kina anklager Japan for å ha stjålet den omstridte øygruppen i Øst-Kina-havet.

Japanerne kaller øyene Senkaku mens kineserne kaller dem Diaoyu.

- Japans handlinger er helt ulovlige. De kan ikke på noe vi endre det historiske faktum at de har stjålet øyene fra Kina eller at Kina har suverenitet over dem, sa Kinas utenriksminister Yang Jiechi fra FNs talerstol.

Uttalelsene kom etter at Japans statsminister Yoshihiko Noda sa at Japan ikke vil gjøre noen kompromisser med Kina i striden om øyene i Øst-Kinahavet.

- Øyene er en fast del av vårt territorium i historiens lys og også i henhold til folkeretten, sa Noda under FN-uka i New York.
______

Ser dropp i Kinas vekst

Asian Development Bank kutter sine vekstanslag for Kina og resten av Asia


TDN Finans, DN.no
03.10.2012

Asian Development Bank har kuttet sitt vekstanslag for Kina fra 8,5 til 7,7 prosent i 2012. Det fremgår av en rapport onsdag.

2013-anslaget er kuttet fra 8,7 til 8,1 prosent anslått i april.

«Dempet eksport, svakere investeringer, et soft forbruk og et fall i industriproduksjonen har tynget økonomien i første halvår 2012, med en BNP-vekst på 7,8 prosent mot 9,6 prosent samme periode i fjor», heter det i rapporten, ifølge TDN Finans.

Store risiki

Også vekstanslaget for Asia er nedjustert. Regionen ventes å vokse 6,1 prosent i 2012 (6,9 prosent) og 6,7 prosent i 2013 (7,3 prosent).

«Den pågående gjeldskrisen i euroområdet og den truende fiscal cliff i USA utgjør de største risikoene til tross for stabiliseringseffektene offentliggjort av myndighetene i Europa og USA», heter det.

Endret 09.10.2012 09:35 av OldNick
OldNick
09.10.2012 09:35
#13910

Endre
Kinaekspert: - Det er umulig å kompromisse

Det er umulig for Kina å inngå kompromiss i konflikten om den omstridte grenselinjen i Sør-Kinahavet, ifølge en kinesisk ekspert


NTB, DN.no
04.10.2012

Det omstridte havområdet utgjør rundt 3,5 millioner kvadratkilometer, og enkelte beregninger anslår at Kina krever cirka 80 prosent av området. Flere andre land gjør krav på deler av havet og rettigheter der.

Wu Shicun, leder for Kinas nasjonale institutt for studier av Sør-Kinahavet, fastslår kinesernes kompromissløshet og peker på den såkalte U-linjen, en stiplet strek på et kart som skal vise Kinas krav.

- Det er absolutt umulig for Kina å gi opp U-linjen, sa Wu på et seminar i regi av Institutt for fredsforskning i Oslo (PRIO) denne uka.

Som svar på et spørsmål bekreftet han senere standpunktet: «Det er ikke mulig å kompromisse».

Autoritativt

Instituttet Wu leder er plassert i Haikou, hovedstad i Hainan-provinsen, som har det administrative ansvaret for de store territoriene Kina krever i Sør-Kinahavet.

- Det er liten tvil om at Wus uttalelser er autoritative, sier seniorforsker Stein Tønnesson ved PRIO, som ledet seminaret og selv er en betydelig autoritet på det omstridte havområdet.

Med i den kinesiske delegasjonen var også en representant for Kinas utenriksdepartements grensekontor, med ambassadørtittel. Hun protesterte ikke på instituttlederens framstilling, hvilket hun trolig ville ha gjort om han hadde avveket fra Kinas offisielle standpunkt.

Mer på link over
______

Advarer mot kinesisk økonomi under press

Sentralbanksjefen i Kina, Zhou Xiaochuan, advarer mot at den innenlandske økonomien fremdeles er under press og erkjenner utfordringen med å stimulere veksten


TDN Finans, DN.no
09.10.2012

Det skriver Market News International tirsdag.

Zhou Xiaochuan sa at de globale forholdene fremdeles er alvorlige og advarte samtidig om at innvirkningen på den globale finansielle krisen forverres.
OldNick
16.11.2012 09:56
#14020

Endre
China

15.11.2012

The Communist Party revealed the makeup of the new Politburo Standing Committee (7 members), the most powerful governing body in China, today.

Xi Jinping, 59, will become new general secretary and will take over presidency from Hu Jintao in Mar. The son of one of the revolutionary founders, Xi held top positions in coastal regions, including Fujian, Zhejiang and Shanghai, from 1985 to 2007, implementing pro-market policies.

Li Keqiang, 57, will replace Wen Jiabao as Chinese premier in Mar. Li studied law as undergraduate and received a PhD in economics, writing a doctoral thesis on urbanization. During his term as an executive vice president Li argued Chinese growth model should focus more on consumption and shift away from investment led development. Li's policies are expected to smooth the nation's income distribution to remind an "olive" as he put it in a 2010 speech.

Wang Qishan, 64, currently a vice premier and is a direct counterpart to US Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner. Wang was Beijing's mayor, headed China Construction Bank and served as vice governor of the People's Bank of China.

Yu Zhengsheng, 67, was formerly minister of construction and replaced Xi Jinping as Communist Party secretary of Shanghai, the nation's financial hub.

Zhang Dejiang, 65, became Chongqing party secretary replacing ousted Bo Xilai earlier this year and is currently vice premier overseeing industries including telecoms and energy.

Zhang Gaoli, 65, headed the Communist Party in Tianjin since 2007. He supervised a rise in infrastructure spending near the port area. Zhang studied planning and statistics and worked in the oil sector in the 1970s and 1980s in southern China.

Liu Yunshan, 65, has been minister of the Communist Party's propaganda department since 2002, managing the country's television and radio stations, newspapers, book publishers and internet.

Zhou Xaiochuan, PBoC governor, Chen Deming, Commerce minister, and Xie Xure, Finance minister, were not among named members of the Central Committee (205 members) and are likely to lose their jobs.

- Possible successors of Zhou include Shang Fulin, head of Chinese banking regulator, Guo Shuqing, chief securities regulator, Jiang Jianqing, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China chairman, and Xiao Gang, Bank of China chairman.

Ekstrakt fra en analytiker-rapport
OldNick
22.11.2012 11:22
#14043

Endre

Sjeføkonom Cecilia Hermansson, Swedbank

Kina har lånt av fremtiden

Pyramidespill og byggeboom truer kinesisk økonomi, mener sjeføkonom


Maren Løhre, DN.no
21.11.2012

- Når man kommer til Kina blir man bekymret over hvor anstrengt den kinesiske økonomien er på bunnen, sier sjeføkonom Cecilia Hermansson i Swedbank til Dagens Industri .

Den siste tiden har det kommet signaler om at Kinas økonomi har snudd til det bedre. Kinesisk statistikk rundt eksportvekst og BNP-vekst per kvartal skulle tilsi en bunn rundt august-september.

Men Swedbanks sjeføkonom, som nylig returnerte fra et besøk i Beijing, ser stormskyer på den kinesiske himmelen.

Pyramidespill

Hun peker på store mengder dårlige lån i banksystemet. Under finanskrisen i 2008-2009 ble penger pumpet inn i investeringer som tre-fire år senere viser seg å være feilsatsninger:

- Mellom 15 til 20 prosent av låneporteføljen kan være dårlige lån. I stedet for å utløse lånene, dekker man over situasjonen og ruller lånene videre. Jeg har fått signaler om pågående pyramidespill, der investorer som ber om pengene sine blir i stedet tilbudt høyere avkastning, sier Hermansson.

Kina har lånt av fremtiden

Byggeboom har også ført til en problematisk situasjon med overtilbud i markedet:

- I bygg-og anleggssektoren finnes produksjon som er tilstrekkelig frem til 2020, og det risikerer å holde tilbake veksten i fremtiden. Man må innse at Kina har lånt av fremtiden de siste årene, sier Hermansson.

Krasjlanding

Ser man dette under ett øker nå risikoen betraktelig for en krasjlanding i den kinesiske økonomien på to til tre års sikt, med veksttall på under 7 prosent.

- Selv om man aldri ville få se det i den kinesiske statistikken, som i dårlige tider blir mindre pålitelig, øker nå sannsynligheten for at man havner under 6-7 prosent, sier Hermansson.

Nødvendige reformer

- Jeg har store vansker for å se den tydelige snuoperasjonen, sier hun.

Men til tross for den økte risikoen regner sjeføkonomen med at landets nye politiske ledelse, med den neste presidenten Xi Jinping i spissen, vil lykkes i å lose landet gjennom nødvendige reformer.

Mindre regulering av finanssektoren, bedre vilkår for Kinas migrantarbeidere, som lever som annenrangs borgere, og en skattereform bør ifølge henne prioriteres for å avverge en krasjlanding.

- Satser landet på reformer i stedet for en altfor ekspansiv kredittvekst, regner jeg med en BNP-vekst på 7,7 prosent i år og 7,9 prosent i 2013, sier Hermansson.
OldNick
09.12.2012 20:27
#14115

Endre
Om China's oligarcher...


De kinesiske prinsene lever sine liv i overdådig luksus bak lukkede dører. Det finnes svært få bilder som fanger deres livsstil. Bildet er fra en bilmesse i Shanghai, der den kinesiske luksusbilden Geely vises frem. Foto: Philippe Lopez, AFP/NTB Scanpix


Verdenshistoriens største ran

I Kina finnes det en gruppe kinesiske prinser som har skaffet seg enorme rikdommer gjennom korrupsjon og maktmisbruk. Ingen i Kina prater om dem


Cecilie Langum Becker, DN.no
09.12.2012

- De lever et dobbeltliv.

Trond Einar Jacobsen er en av få som vet hva han snakker om når han forteller om Kinas skjulte elite - den såkalte "Gang of Princelings"; Kinas skjulte prinser.

Takket være sin kinesiske kone og hennes familie har han kommet svært tett på det som i realiteten er et helt lukket miljø for utenforstående. I mange år har han vært i omgangskretsen til Deng Pufang, sønnen til den avdøde kommunistlederen Deng Xiaoping.

Det har ført til utgivelsen av to bøker: "Sønnen", som handler om Deng Pufang, og "Kinas skjulte prinser", som handler om hvordan prinsene har skaffet seg de enorme rikdommene sine.

Jacobsen forteller om en gruppe mennesker som, etter å ha blitt torturert og fysisk skadet under kulturrevolusjonen på 60- og 70-tallet, er så livredde for en ny revolusjon at de har barrikadert seg i lukkede områder der de lever ut sine overdådige luksusliv.

- De lever som rike mennesker andre steder i verden. For ti år siden var de veldig flashy, men nå er de mer diskret. Det skyldes ikke bare at de er redde for en ny revolusjon i Kina. De husker også hvordan de ble anklaget for å være reaksjonære og ha en kapitalistisk tankegang under kulturrevolusjonen. I dag er dette ironisk nok blitt sant.

Livredde for revolusjon

Dette øverste sjiktet i det kinesiske samfunnet har gjerne to pass, med statsborgerskap i land som Canada og Australia i tillegg. Det er helt vanlig at de opererer med to eller til og med tre forskjellige navn - ett i Kina, et annet i Hongkong og et vestlig navn når de reiser til Sydney eller London. De har også gjerne hus i disse landene, og i Kina foretrekker de å bo i kort avstand til flyplassen, slik at de raskt kan komme seg ut av landet.


Trond Einar Jacobsen er forfatteren av boken "Kinas skjulte prinser"


- De er livredde for en revolusjon, og vil ha muligheten til å bare reise. De regner sin rikdom som en form for livsforsikring, sier Jacobsen.

Som barn, svigerbarn eller barnebarn av de gamle toppene i kommunistpartiet har veien til ufattelig rikdom vært kort. Gjennomsnittsformuen til de 70 rikeste i folkekongressen er over én milliard dollar per hode.

- Og da har man ikke tatt med familiemedlemmene, der de største formuene ofte ligger, sier han.

Jacobsen mener det dreier seg om flere tusen mennesker, som har skaffet seg rikdom gjennom posisjoner i det halvstatlige næringslivet eller i partiet.

Først og fremst utenpå

Da Deng Xiaoping overtok makten etter Mao Zedongs død, bygget sønnen Deng Pufang opp sin formue. På slutten av 80-tallet ble han en av de rikeste i Kina. Senere, da store deler av kinesisk næringsliv ble privatisert, fulgte de andre prinsene hans eksempel, og mange av dem ble enda rikere. Dette skjedde i løpet av 90-årene, ikke lenge etter at de store demonstrasjonene på Tiananmen-plassen var blitt knust av Folkets frigjøringshær.


Forfatteren (i midten) sammen med Deng Pufang (t.v.) og Pufangs kone Gao Suning. I bakgrunnen ser vi Pufangs livvakt, He Hansheng.

Endret 09.12.2012 20:27 av OldNick
OldNick
10.12.2012 08:42
#14117

Endre
Nettopp da ingen lenger våget å protestere mot urettferdighet og maktmisbruk, klarte prinsene å sikre seg de mest verdifulle eiendommene i Kina.

De tok også kontroll over de største og viktigste virksomhetene innen bank- og finans, shipping og energi, råvarer og våpen, telekommunikasjon og media. Fordi verdiene egentlig tilhørte det kinesiske folk, kaller Jacobsen dette for verdenshistoriens største ran.

- I dag sies det at de største kinesiske bedriftene er statlige, men det er først og fremst utenpå, mener Jacobsen.

- Innerst inne, der hvor beslutningene tas, sitter det som regel en prins. Eller en prinsesse. Eller familien til en prins eller en prinsesse. De sitter i ledelsen. De sitter i styret. De sitter på store aksjeposter som de ikke nødvendigvis eier direkte, men som de kontrollerer via andre selskaper eller stråmenn som handler på deres instrukser.

Stor luksus

Det nye i 2012 er at prinsene ikke bare har sikret seg økonomisk, men også politisk makt. Fire av de syv nye medlemmene i Kinas mektigste organ, politbyråets stående komité, er i dag prinser. Den nye partisjefen, Xi Jinping, er i tillegg blitt formann i militærkommisjonen, et viktig organ som kontrollerer hæren. Tre av de siste offiserene som er forfremmet til fullverdige generaler i Folkets frigjøringshær, regnes også som prinser.

Prinsene godtar ikke å dele makten med noe organ som er uavhengig av kommunistpartiet, og derfor klarer ikke Kina å få bukt med korrupsjonen. At prinsene neppe vil innlate seg på noen politiske reformer, skyldes blant annet kulturrevolusjonen. Mange av prinsene mener at det som skjedde under kulturrevolusjonen er et argument mot ytringsfrihet og folkestyre.

Sensurer alt

Jacobsen peker på at prinsene er svært upopulære i også innad i kommunistpartiet, men at de smigres fordi de har makt og penger.

Kinesere flest vet at de eksisterer, men få tør å snakke om dem - langt mindre å skrive om dem.

- Alt som har med prinsene å gjøre, kan bli sensurert. Til og med navnene til mange av prinsene blir sensurert. I perioder har faktisk ordet "Ferrari" også blitt fjernet fra internett, av frykt for at folk skal begynne å diskutere livsstilen til visse politikere og barna deres. For hvem er det som kjører Ferrari i Kina?
OldNick
10.01.2013 09:17
#14181

Endre
Interessant!

Et viss økonomisk oppsving i China - drevet av detaljhandelen!

China's consumers driving economic rebound: survey

BEIJING - Reuters (Globe&Mail)
Dec. 26 2012

China's consumers are leading an uneven recovery in the world's second biggest economy that has retailers expecting stronger sales in six months, early results of a national survey showed on Wednesday.

The China Beige Book survey of more than 2,000 executives revealed that the retail sector had the strongest revenue growth and business expectations in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The survey broadly detected a mild economic recovery with the hard-hit sectors of real estate, mining and manufacturing - to a lesser extent - joining retail at the head of the upswing.

"The revenue growth pickup was notable in luxuries and durable goods - furniture, appliances, and autos," said the survey, conducted between Oct. 26 and Dec. 2 by New York-based CBB International and based on the U.S. Federal Reserve's economic report of the same name.

"Retailers' mood remains quite hopeful, with 72 per cent forecasting higher sales in six months, up 4 points on last quarter. A remarkably low 6 per cent foresee declines," it said, adding that 61 per cent of retailers reported higher sales in the fourth-quarter survey than in the third quarter.

The biggest bounces were seen in coastal Guangdong province, Beijing, the northeast and central regions of China - locations which the third-quarter's survey found had the biggest spending falls.

The retail rebound was not evenly distributed, however, with Shanghai and the southwest region recording falls in spending.

The survey's findings are reflected in the most recent raft of economic indicators from China, revealing a mild rebound taking hold in the fourth quarter, and in policy maker comments.

China's retail sales grew 14.9 per cent year-on-year in November, ahead of the 14.6 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll.

China is on course to end 2012 with the slowest full year of growth since 1999 and while the 7.7 per cent rate forecast in a benchmark Reuters poll is way above the world's other major economies, it is far below the roughly 10 per cent annual growth seen for most of the last 30 years.

Weakness in the external environment remains a key drag on an economy in which exports generated 31 per cent of gross domestic product in 2011, according to World Bank data, and where an estimated 200 million jobs are supported by foreign investment, or in factories producing for overseas markets.

The upside to the patchiness of the recovery is that it is being driven by services, which are calibrated more towards domestic demand. Geographic rebalancing away from prosperous coastal areas was also evident in the survey, with firms in the western region recording the highest revenue growth in the fourth quarter.

The survey had mixed findings for labour markets, with a 3-point rise to 34 per cent in the proportion of firms citing an increased availability of unskilled labour, while 20 per cent said shortages had increased.

Some 34 per cent of firms increased their work forces in the fourth from third quarters. Wage rises were reported by 52 per cent of respondents.

Bankers questioned in the survey said credit conditions eased in the fourth quarter, but fewer firms borrowed. Meanwhile, banks and firms said loan rejections rose slightly, to 16 per cent, and exposure to companies with excess production capacity was cut.

"Few corporate loans went to new customers: three-fifths of bankers say under 20 per cent did - an astonishingly small number," the survey said.

"Most were debt rollovers or loan increases for existing clients. This is not yet a period of strong expansion."

The China Beige Book survey of face-to-fac
OldNick
16.01.2013 01:48
#14218

Endre
Fitch mener Kina har et gjeldsproblem

TDN Finans,DN.no
08.01.2013

Anekdotiske bevis peker på at Kina har et gjeldsproblem og at landets økonomi må rebalanseres mot en mer konsumdrevet vekst.

Det sa Andrew Colquhoun i kredittvurderingsbyrået Fitch på en pressekonferanse tirsdag, ifølge Bloomberg News.

Han uttrykte at en vekst på mellom syv og åtte prosent er det beste for Kina.

Kinas skyggebanksystem utgjør dog en bekymring for landets kredittrating ifølge Fitch.
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Kina kan åpne for flere utenlandsinvesteringer

En mulig lovendring sendte kinesiske aksjer kraftig opp mandag


TDN Finans, DN.no
14.01.2013

Aksjer i Kina steg markant etter mulig heving av tak for utenlandske investeringer i landet.

Kinesisk aksjer steg kraftig mandag etter at kinesiske myndigheter kan komme til å øke muligheten for utenlandske investeringer i landet.

Mer på link
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5 faktorer som kan velte Kina

Kina-ekspertene tror på 17 prosent oppgang i Kina-aksjer i 2013, men 5 farer lurer i bakgrunnen


HegnarOnline
15.01.2013

I Økonominyhetene på HegnarTV tirsdag så vi på 5 risikomomenter som kan sette en stopper for optimismen i det kinesiske aksjemarkedet i tiden fremover. Flere ledende Kina-eksperter Reuters har snakket med tror i snitt på 17 prosent oppgang i det kinesiske aksjemarkedet i 2013.

De 5 farene som lurer i bakgrunnen:

1) Dalende profitt

2) Kreativ regnskapsføring (som er lov i Kina, men som avviker fra regnskapsprinsippene det meste av verden forøvrig aksepterer)

3) 800 selskaper står i kø for å bli børsnotert. Det kan føre til kapitaltørke

4) Myndighetenes kamp mot korrupsjon kan komme til å kle av en del kinesiske forretningsmenn.

5) Sentralbanken skrur igjen kranene.

Endret 16.01.2013 01:50 av OldNick
OldNick
24.01.2013 13:58
#14240

Endre
Oljefondet vil få sterkere konkurranse fra kineserne om å akkumulere aksjer i globale selskap innenfor teknologi/IT/elektronikk etc?

Dette kan bli spennende...

Kina vil etablere globale giganter

DN.no
24.01.2013

Det kinesiske industridepartementet har lagt frem en ny plan hvor målet er å skape globale gigantselskaper gjennom fusjoner og oppkjøp, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

Et hundretall kinesiske selskaper har ambisjoner om å bli det neste Apple, Samsung eller Toyota.

Allerede om to år skal disse selskapene være på etablert med en omsetning på minst 100 milliarder kroner hver.

Elektronikkbransjen først

Etter all sannsynlighet er det elektronikksektoren som først vil starte prosessen.

Kinesiske selskaper som TCL, ZTE og BYD, som i det siste har lansert smarttelefoner og nettbrett i internasjonale markeder, er verd å merke seg.

Elektronikkselskapene Huawei og Lenovo har allerede vist at det er mulig; begge selskapene er på få år blitt utfordrere til Nokia, Ericsson og Dell. Lenovo er gjeldfritt og var ifjor verdens nest største pc-leverandør med en markedsandel på 11 prosent.

Overkapasitet

Ni nøkkelsektorer skal gjennomgå sammenslåinger og oppkjøp, blant annet elektronikk, bilproduksjon, farmasi og landbruk.

Kina ønsker at antall lokale bilprodusenter skal reduseres til maksimalt fem. Disse skal konkurrere med sørkoreanske og japanske selskaper internasjonalt.

- Stordriftsfordeler spiller en viktig rolle i disse nøkkelsektorene. Spredt og utdatert produksjonsteknologi fører til overflødige prosjekter og overkapasitet, sier sjefingeniør Zhu Hongren i det kinesiske industridepartementet til China Daily.

Skal kjøpe i utlandet

Myndighetene ønsker også at lokale selskaper skal gjøre internasjonale oppkjøp for å sikre seg tilgang til teknologi og merkenavn.

- Den svake globale økonomien gir kinesiske selskaper gode muligheter til å ekspandere. Dette er riktig tidspunkt, sa direktør Lin Boqiang China Center for Energy Economic Research på en konferanse i Xiamen nylig.
OldNick
08.03.2013 22:28
#14343

Endre
Denne FT-artikkelen kan sees i sammenheng med den glimrende artikkelen i DN om norske Trond Einar Jacobsen (ref. OldNick #14115 fra 9/12 i fjor), som skrev 2 bøker om China's oligarker, nyrike etterkommere fra de gamle som styrte China's kommunistparti sammen med og etter Mao, slik som Deng Pufang, sønnen til Deng Xiaoping.

Chinese parliament holds 83 billionaires

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing, FT.com
Mar. 7, 2012


A picture taken with a fisheye lens shows a general view of the opening session of the National Peoples Congress (NPC) in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, 05 March 2013. The NPC has over 3,000 delegates and is the world's largest parliament or legislative assembly though its function is largely as a formal seal of approval for the policies fixed by the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party. ©EPA


The legislature of the world's last major communist country is almost certainly the wealthiest in the world, according to a popular rich list that names 83 dollar billionaires among the delegates to China's parliament this year.

Meanwhile, in America there is not a single billionaire in the House of Representatives or the Senate while the wealthiest member, Texas Republican Michael McCaul, is estimated to be worth a paltry $500m.

Among the delegates gathered in Beijing this week to attend the National People's Congress, the China-based Hurun Global Rich List identified 31 people with more than $1bn in personal assets.

The richest is Zong Qinghou, founder of Chinese drinks maker Wahaha, with an estimated fortune of $13bn, according to Hurun.

The NPC is tasked with approving legislation proposed by the ruling Communist party but in practice it plays a mostly ceremonial role. Another 52 billionaires are delegates to the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a toothless advisory body that meets at the same time as the NPC for about two weeks each year in early March.

Given the difficulties involved in calculating the hidden wealth of many of China's top leaders and their families, analysts say the Hurun report probably seriously understates the true number of super-wealthy participants in the political sessions.

The number of dollar billionaires identified by the report was up 17 per cent this year from last year, when 28 billionaires attended the NPC and 43 were at the CPPCC.

In China's authoritarian but nominally egalitarian system, the convergence of power and great wealth is a highly sensitive topic and one that Communist leaders themselves regard as potentially destabilising. Xi Jinping, the newly appointed head of the party and military who will formally take over as president by the end of the current NPC session on March 17, launched a campaign against extravagance and corruption immediately upon taking office in November.

But this appears to have convinced China's ultra-wealthy that, now more than ever, they need to be inside the political tent.

"Our government is a totalitarian one with an axe hanging over everybody's head and the decision over whose head it will fall on lies with officials," said Xingyuan Feng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think-tank. "When businesspeople amass a fortune they need to protect it - so they either find an agent to [do so] or they become an official themselves.

"Another popular choice is to acquire a foreign passport and we are already seeing a lot of CPPCC members who have become foreigners."

The top three richest members of the CPPCC are all sons of Hong Kong tycoons, with Victor Li, the son of Asia's richest man Li Ka-shing, coming in first with an estimated family fortune of $32bn.

Endret 08.03.2013 22:28 av OldNick
OldNick
08.03.2013 22:29
#14344

Endre
Hong Kong's relatively smooth transition from a former British colony back to Chinese territory over the last 15 years has been helped by support from the territory's richest citizens, who were mostly co-opted by the Communist party in exchange for business opportunities on the mainland.

The average fortune among the 83 wealthiest NPC and CPPCC delegates is $3.35bn, according to the Hurun report, compared with the average annual wage for Chinese urban workers of less than $7,000.

Each of the 83 richest members of the US House of Representatives and Senate has an average of $56.4m, according to figures from the Centre for Responsive Politics.

At nearly 3,000 delegates, the NPC is the biggest legislative assembly in the world while the CPPCC boasts around 2,200 delegates.
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DN: Folkekongressen fostrer milliardærer

Medlemmene i det kinesiske parlamentet, eller Folkekongressen, er ikke som folk flest


Anne Lindeberg, DN.no
08.03.2013

Det er 83 dollarmilliardærer i Den nasjonale folkekongressen og kongressens underkomité tilsammen. 31 bare i Folkekongressen, skriver FT.com og viser til en uoffisiell liste laget av den kinesiske Hurun Global Rich List.

I USA er det til sammenligning ikke en eneste dollarmilliardær hverken i Representantenes hus eller Senatet.

Den rikeste i Folkekongressen er Zong Qinghou, som er grunnlegger av drikkeprodusenten Wahaha. Han skal ha en formue på 13 milliarder dollar, ifølge Hurun. Gjennomsnittlig er dollarmilliardærene god for 3,3 milliarder. Gjennomsnittslønnen for en kinesisk industriarbeider er 7000 dollar i året.

Folkekongressen består av 3000 medlemmer som møtes en gang i året i rundt 10 dager. Årets kongress varer til 17. mars.

Tar man i betraktning at det er betydelig skjult rikdom blant Kinas ledere og deres familier, anslår analytikere FT har snakket med at Hurun-rapporten trolig undervurderer hvor mange milliardærer det faktisk er.

Xi Jinping, som nylig ble valgt til leder for kommunistpartiet, tar offisielt over ledervervet 17. mars, når årets folkekongress avsluttes. Han annonserte med en gang han var valgt at han skulle sette igang en aksjon mot den omfattende korrupsjonen i landet. Partiledelsen mener korrupsjonen er i stand til å velte partiet.

Men, skriver FT, dette ser ut til å ha overbevist Kinas rikeste om at de må komme seg innenfor den partipolitiske paraplyen.
OldNick
07.04.2013 15:20
#14422

Endre
Selektivt referat fra et toppmøte på Hainan, China.

Xi lover gull og grønne skoger

Kinas president Xi Jinping lover at Kinas økonomiske vekst vil fortsette, være bærekraftig og bringe velstand både innenfor og utenfor Kinas grenser


NTB, E24.no
07.04.2013

Beretningen om Kinas fortsatte vekst kom i en tale han søndag holdt ved åpningen av en årlig konferanse i Boao på øyprovinsen Hainan helt sør i Kina.

Xi understreket at fred er helt avgjørende for veksten i verdens nest største økonomi. Han appellerte til næringslivsledere og politikere til å bruke diplomati og dialog til å løse problemer og la velstanden spre seg for å løse disputter.

- For Asia er utvikling fortsatt hovedspørsmålet for å løse mange problemer og konflikter, sa Xi.

- Uten fred er det ikke behov for å snakke om utvikling tilføyde han i talen til en tilhørerskare som blant annet omfattet Australias statsminister Julia Gillard, Myanmars president U Thein Sein, New Zealands statsminister John Key og sjefen for Det internasjonale pengefondet IMF.

Xi tegnet et bilde av et rikere Kina i 2020, når regjeringen venter at gjennomsnittsinntekten i byer og på landet skal være det dobbelte av hva den var i 2010.

Kina vil i økende grad eksportere sin velstand til nabolandene, hevdet Xi.

Om fem år vil Kina importere varer til en årlig verdi av 10.000 milliarder dollar, sa han, og tilføyde at kinesiske investeringer utenfor landets grenser også vil stige kraftig.

I 2012 importerte Kina varer og tjenester til en verdi av 1.800 milliarder dollar, en økning på 4,3 prosent fra året før. Økningen blir av mange betraktet som beskjeden.
______

Bloomberg er mer balansert, med flere kommentarer fra Xi selv, samt andre foredragsholdere.

China President Xi Says Global Economic Recovery Remains Elusive

Bloomberg News
Apr. 7, 2013

Chinese President Xi Jinping said the global economy has entered a period of "profound readjustment" and recovery remains elusive.

The international financial industry is fraught with risks and protectionism is on the rise, Xi said in a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia in the southern Chinese province of Hainan today. Countries are still facing difficulties in adjusting their economic structure and the global-governance mechanism needs improvement, he said.

Policy makers around the world face growing risks of stagnant or slowing growth. Last week alone, the Bank of Japan said it will start unprecedented stimulus to counter 15 years of deflation, data showed U.S. employers added the fewest workers in nine months and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the institution is prepared to cut interest rates if the economy deteriorates further.

"Achieving common development for all countries remains an uphill battle," Xi said. "Rather than undercutting each other's efforts, countries should complement each other and work for joint progress."

Speaking at the same forum today, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said countries need to "reaccelerate" the process of cooperation that was evident at the beginning of the financial crisis.

"There was a very strong sense of urgency and a massive desire to cooperate," Lagarde said. "But let's be honest about it: That sense of urgency has clearly abated as the crisis has tempered and as recovery has been a bit more patchy."

Full Confidence

The spillover effects of monetary and fiscal policies "have significantly accelerated and heightened," she said, without naming any countries. "This means that all countries and regions need to act with an even greater sense of responsibility -- responsibility not solely for the consequences of their policy for their own nation, for their
OldNick
23.04.2013 09:56
#14489

Endre
Nye advarsler mot Kinas gjeldsfest

DN.no
23.04.2013

Skepsisen er stor til de offisielle statistikkene fra Kina.

Nå er det omfanget av råtne lån i bankene det stilles spørsmål rundt, og vestlige finansinstitusjoner trekker seg ut fra det kinesiske markedet, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

De fem største bankene i Kina er statskontrollerte og gir i hovedsak lån til storselskaper. Andelen misligholdte lån hos de kinesiske bankene ligger offisielt på kun 0,95 prosent av alle utlån.

Dette er svært lavt sammenlignet med andre land, og kun fem land, blant annet Finland, Canada og Luxembourg, har en lavere andel råtne lån, ifølge Verdensbanken.

Gjennomsnittet er på rundt 2,5 prosent.

- Antallet misligholdte lån har økt fra januar til mars. Vi vil overvåke situasjonen. Det er særlig misligholdte boliglån som øker, sier visestyreformann Wang Zhaoxing i det kinesiske banktilsynet til næringslivsavisen Financial News.

Uoppnåelig boligdrøm

Det har kommet en rekke advarsler de siste ukene om den voksende gjelden i Kina, og da spesielt via det uregulerte gråmarkedet og gjeldsforpliktelsene til kommunene.

Varsellampene lyser hos storbankene og eiendomsutviklere.

- Kinesiske banker står foran store utfordringer i år og vil bli testet. Alt dreier seg om soliditet, sa konsernsjef Yang Kaisheng hos Industrial and Commercial Bank of China nylig.

Eiendomsprisene i de kinesiske storbyene har gått rett til værs i mange år. Vanlige lønnsmottagere er priset og skviset ut av markedet. Spekulantene har overtatt. Styreformannen i Kinas største eiendomsselskap er ikke i tvil om at Kina opplever en eiendomsboble.

- Min største bekymring er at prisveksten i Shanghai og Beijing ikke lar seg kontrollere. Det vil resultere i prisvekst i andre byer og det er garantert ikke bra. Hvordan kan dette kontrolleres? Det er der usikkerheten ligger, sier Wang Shi hos Vanke til CNBC.
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Sur stemning etter skuffende Kina-tall

Bred nedgang på det asiatiske børsene


Anders Park Framstad, E24.no
23.04.2013

Den foreløpige kinesiske innkjøpssjefsindeksen (PMI) fra banken HSBC kom tirsdag inn på 50,5, et fall fra 51,6 i mars. Målinger over 50 viser vekst.

50,5 er svakere enn forventede 51,5, ifølge Bloomberg.

- Målingen tegner et bilde av fortsatt smertelig treg vekst for den kinesiske produksjonssektoren. Regjeringen må hjelpe til med å gjøre de gode likviditetsforholdene til reell vekst, sier Yao Wei ved Societe Generales kontor i Hong Kong.

- Det kan hende det har vært en overreaksjon i markedet. Jeg er ikke så bekymret for de svakere økonomiske dataene fra Kina. Regjeringen introduserer politikk som sørger for at økonomien går i riktig retning.
______

Japan anklager Kina for å krenket japansk farvann

NTB, DN.no
23.04.2013

Japans statsminister sier at ingen kinesere skal få gå i land på øyene i japansk farvann som det er strid om.

Åtte kinesiske statsfartøy har tirsdag gått inn i japansk farvann, ifølge japanske myndigheter.

Den japanske statsministeren Shinzo Abe advarer Kina.

- Vi vil avvise ethvert forsøk på å gå in i vårt sjøområde eller på land, sa han.

Mer på link
OldNick
08.06.2013 12:27
#14653

Endre
Kinas økonomi mister dampen

Kinesiske handelstall bekrefter vekstbrems


Johann D. Sundberg, E24.no
08.06.2013

Den økonomiske veksten i verdens største land er på vei ned.

Det blir ytterligere bekreftet av nye kinesiske handelstall som er offentliggjort lørdag morgen.

De offisielle handelstallene viser at eksporten kun økte med en prosent fra mai i fjor til mai i år, skriver nyhetsbyrået Reuters.

Det er den laveste veksten i de offisielle statistikkene siden juli i fjor. På forhånd var det ventet en vekst på hele 7,3 prosent.

EU-ras

I mai falt eksporten til USA med 1,6 prosent. Det er tredje måned på rad med nedgang. Den økonomiske krisen i EU merkes i tallene. Eksporten fra Kina til EU falt med hele 9,7 prosent.

Tallene for Kinas import var enda dårligere. Importen falt med 0,3 proent mens det på forhånd var ventet en økning på seks prosent.

Det overraskende fallet i importen gjør at overskuddet på handelsbalansen var noe høyere enn forventet i mail.

- Handelstallene reflekterer den labre innenlandske og utenlandske etterspørselen noe som signaliserer svakere vekst enn ventet i 2. kvartal, sier økonom Shen Lan i Standard Chartered i Shanghai til Reuters.

Før dagens handelsbalansetall har de offisielle statistikkene ikke vist noen tegn til svakhet i den kinesiske eksporten. Det skyldes at eksport fra Kina til lagre i Hongkon tidligere har blitt regnet som ordinær eksport. Dette er nå tatt ut av tallene.

Nedjusterer vekstanslag

Søndag blir det offentliggjort flere statistikker som kan gi ny næring til de som frykter at veksten i den kinesiske økonomien skal stanse helt opp.

Da offentliggjøres statistikk for detaljomsetningen og industriproduksjonen i mai.

Både IMF og OECD nedjusterte i forrige måned anslagene for årets økonomiske vekst i Kina til henholdsvis 7,75 og 7,8 prosent.

I første kvartal var den økonomiske veksten 7,7 prosent som er ned fra 7,9 prosent i fjerde kvartal i fjor.

Kinas økonomi vokste med 7,8 prosent i 2012. Det var den laveste veksten som er målt siden 1999.

Kinesiske myndigheter har sagt at landet må regne med en veksttakt på syv-tallet.
OldNick
10.06.2013 17:19
#14663

Endre
De siste makrotallene fra China var svake...

Strategien er åpenbart risikabel

Sjeføkonom Knut Anton Mork mener Kinas forsøk på å kvele nye bobler kan forplante seg gjennom hele systemet


Cecilie Langum Becker, DN.no
10.06.2013

- Med bare ett eneste unntak var de alle skuffende svake, skriver sjeføkonom Knut Anton Mork i Handelsbanken i sin morgenrapport mandag.

Ferske tall fra Kina i helgen er nedslående lesing. Et rush av makrotall viser at veksten i den kinesiske økonomien bremser.

Svakhetstegn

Veksten i både Industriproduksjonen og eiendomsinvesteringer dabber av, samtidig som at eksportveksten også er langt lavere enn ventet. Eksportveksten var på kun én prosent i mai, etter en oppgang på 14,7 prosent i april.

- Dette var den laveste vekstraten på nesten et år. Svekkelsen skyldes spesielt at eksporten til EU, USA og Japan fortsetter å falle. Det er også et svakhetstegn at importen faller, og det var nedgang for viktige råvarer som kopper, aluminium og kull, skriver seniorøkonom Knut A. Magnussen i DNB Markets i sin morgenrapport.

- Den kinesiske økonomien kommer til å holde seg nær bunnen av den u-formede gjeninnhentingen resten av året, skriver senioranalytiker Amy Y. Zhuang i Nordea i en morgenrapport.

Også kredittveksttallene var svake. Utestående lån var opp 14,5 prosent i mai, ned fra 14,9 prosent i april. Ifølge businessinsider.com er en av hovedbekymringene nå at det krever mer og mer kredittvekst i Kina, for å levere mindre og mindre vekst.

Spektakulært element

Knut Anton Mork mener at nettopp kredittinnstrammingen er det mest «spektakulære elementet» i helgens nøkkeltall.

- Det er tydelig resultat av myndighetenes innstramming, noe som også er blitt merket ved at sentralbanken har holdt tilbake på tilførselen av likviditet, slik at pengemarkedsrentene har steget til rekordnivå. Ved å stramme inn til tross for det høye gjeldsnivået ser myndighetene ut til å forsøke å sette noen eksempler ved å la noen lån bli misligholdt slik at risiko kan bli priset bedre, skriver Mork, og fortsetter:

- På den måten søker de å forhindre at nye bobler bygger seg opp. Men strategien er åpenbart risikabel fordi mislighold av enkeltlån raskt kan forplante seg gjennom systemet som helhet og gjøre det sårbart.

Mer på link
______

China Export Growth Plummets Amid Fake-Shipment Crackdown

Bloomberg News
June 9, 2013

______

China's economy stumbles in May, growth may fall in Q2

Reuters
June 10, 2013
OldNick
08.07.2013 16:03
#14733

Endre
China's langsiktige plan om å gjøre Renminbi'en konvertibel, går sin gang...

Bundesbank Warns China's Currency 'On Its Way To Becoming Global Reserve Currency'

by Tyler Durden, ZeroHedge.com
07/06/2013

Following the most recent shift 'away' from a USD-centric world (with the China-Australia direct currency convertibility), it seems the possibility of China's Yuan as the next global reserve currency is getting closer. The Brits, Germans, and now the Swiss (who just signed a free-trade-agreement with China) are all actively vying to become Europe's Yuan trading hub as it seems the long line of developments to internationalize the currency over the past two years. As Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel noted in a speech entitled "Reniminbi as a potential reserve currency" this week, "the Chinese currency is well on its way to becoming one of the future global reserve currencies." He noted that, although the USD is still the most commonly-used currency for settling trade with China; from virtually zero in 2010, the Yuan is used to settle over 12% of trading transactions now - and is likley to increase further.

Remember, nothing lasts forever:



This latest development in global currency relations should come as no surprise to those who have followed our series on China's slow but certain internationalization of its currency over the past two years. To wit: "World's Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade", "China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade", "China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System", "India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement", "Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says", "India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees", "The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap", and "Thanks, World Reserve Currency, But No Thanks: Australia And China To Enable Direct Currency Convertibility."

Via Deutsche Bundebank (Dr. Joachim Nagel),

Renminbi as a potential reserve currency

According to Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Nagel, the Chinese currency is well on its way to becoming one of the future global reserve currencies. This potential stems from the renminbi's increasing convertibility, he said at a con
OldNick
13.07.2013 11:58
#14767

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OldNick
16.07.2013 08:24
#14780

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JPMorgan: Varsler ubehagelige måneder

DN.no
16.07.2013

Tross fortsatt fall i veksttakten greide Kina å berolige markedene igår med en vekst i andre kvartal på 7,5%.

Sjefstrateg Daniel Morris hos JP Morgan Asset Management sier de kinesiske tallene er usikre, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

Kina beregner den økonomiske veksten annerledes enn de fleste land. Med vestlig beregningsmetode var veksten på under syv prosent allerede i forrige kvartal.

Forventningene til Kina er for høye. Europa står foran noen ubehagelige måneder. Særlig Tyskland har nytt svært godt av Kinas vekst. Dette har bidratt til å gjøre Tyskland til et europeisk lokomotiv. Den kinesiske justeringen som pågår vil fortsette, og vil gjøre ting ubehagelig for Tyskland og Europa, sier Morris til DN.

Flere dårlige nyheter

Det har vært en rekke dårlige nyheter fra Kina de siste månedene.

Ikke minst for bare tre uker siden da landet skremte vannet av finansmarkedene da sentralbanken prøvde å bremse kredittveksten.

Daniel Morris mener en styrt lavere vekst er bedre enn en overstimulert opptur.

På lang sikt er verden bedre tjent med en kinesiske vekst på 6,5 prosent, enn en vekst på syv-åtte prosent, basert på overinvesteringer i Kina.

Han tror aldri mer at vi vil se vekstrater i Kina på over åtte prosent.

Prøver å få kontroll

President Xi Jinping og statsminister Li Keqiang har brukt de siste månedene på å prøve å få kontroll med det uregulerte utlånsmarkedet.

De første par årene vil Li Keqiang prøve å unngå en hard landing og en finanskrise. Dette er årsaken til at vi tror Li Keqiang vil komme med tiltak for å stoppe nedturen i løpet av de neste par kvartalene, sier Ting Lu hos Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Tiden hvor de statskontrollerte bankene fikk marsjordre om å stille med billig finansiering og massive offentlige investeringer er over.

Strukturelt har Kina nådd et punkt hvor fundamentale reformer er nødvendig for å takle landets økende problemer med overkapasitet i industrien og kredittrisiko i finanssektoren, sier senioranalytiker for Asia hos Nordea, Amy Yuan Zhueng til Dagens Næringsliv.

Gjeldskaos

Daniel Morris sier manglende kunnskap om det som faktisk skjer i Kina gjør det ekstremt vanskelig å forberede seg på hva som kommer.

Noen spår Kinas kollaps i morgen. Andre spår ti prosent vekst i neste måned. Det er vanskelig å vite hva som skjer i andre vekstøkonomier også, men Kina er i en særstilling. Det er et veldig vanskelig marked å analysere, sier Morris.

Det er fryktet at myndighetene skal miste kontrollen i forsøket på å redusere gjelden.

Går dette for raskt, kan det føre til en ødeleggende svekkelse i økonomien. Likviditetskrisen i juni viser hvor lett innstramminger kan ha utilsiktede konsekvenser, ifølge Zhiwei Zhang hos Nomura.
______

Analysis: Sting in dragon's tail for foreign companies in China

Sujata Rao, Reuters/Chicago Tribune
July 14, 2013

London - China's vast market for foreign goods and services, once seen by global companies as a modern-day El Dorado, is becoming a weight around their necks as its growth slows.

The rise of the Chinese economic "dragon" over the last two decades has transformed international business. But now the country is in the grip of a slowdown due to a slump in exports and banking sector excesses, as recent data has shown.

That has led fund managers worldwide to re-assess their investments in companies with a focus on the world's No.2 economy.

"Anything China-sensitive is performing poorly and the trend will not go away because there is no sign of growth recovery," said Maarten-Jan Bakkum, investment strategist at

Endret 16.07.2013 08:39 av OldNick
OldNick
16.07.2013 08:38
#14781

Endre
ING Investment Management, which has cut its holdings of China-exposed stocks.

Markets are already braced for slower commodity demand. But Beijing's recent moves, from an anti-corruption drive that has dented luxury demand to a crackdown on shadow banking, will hurt domestic demand too, Bakkum said.

Indeed, investors fear a full-blown banking crunch that could derail credit and consumption growth for years more than they fear sub-7 percent economic growth.

"Even if part of the China fears is correct, consumption will also be hit," he added.

MSCI's China Exposure Index, made up of about 50 companies that derive a significant portion of revenues from China, has fallen around 10 percent this year. Two-thirds of the losses have come in the past quarter with the darkening growth outlook.

In contrast, a similar MSCI list of stocks with exposure to developed economies has gained over 12 percent in 2013, trading off the improving outlook for the West and Japan.

Amit Lodha, portfolio manager of the Fidelity Global Real Assets Securities fund, said he favors stocks such as Volkswagen, whose China exposure is effectively hedged by its sales back to a recovering Europe.

The German carmaker's luxury division, Bentley, this month reported a 23 percent fall in Chinese sales while U.S. and European deliveries rose 12-22 percent.

"Over the longer term, consumption growth in emerging markets like China remains the theme to play. Nearer term, with some resurgence in the United States and signs of bottoming in Europe it would be better to focus on names which have exposure to growth here," Lodha said.

SEMICONDUCTORS AND CEMENT

For two decades China's 10 percent-a-year growth rates allowed foreign companies to enjoy fat profits and surging share prices. Its multi-trillion dollar infrastructure projects sucked in commodities from Brazil and Russia, as well as semiconductors and construction equipment from Germany and the United States.

Companies selling cars, clothing and cosmetics meanwhile benefited from the growing wealth of China's 1.2 billion people, whose per capita incomes have quadrupled since 2000.

China directly accounts for 5-6 percent of U.S. and European company earnings, banks reckon. The indirect share, due to Beijing's influence on commodity prices, is probably far bigger.

It economic slowdown has already hit commodities trade.

"We are not interested in investing in companies that have exposure to commodities and raw materials, goods that China has historically stockpiled. At the end of the day there is a clear reduction of demand from China," said David Bailin, global head of managed investments at Citi Private Bank.

Consumer plays may have more traction, he says.

Consumption makes up just 35 percent of China's economy, almost half the level in neighboring India. And with 300 million-plus people deemed to be part of the middle class, the bet is that smartphones and designer gear will not lack buyers.

But prosperity and employment in China are still closely tied to trade. So the export slump along with rising inflation and higher borrowing costs caused by the crackdown on so-called shadow banking may already be biting into disposable income.

Take Swiss watch exports. These fell 25 percent in the first quarter of 2013. Sales to Hong Kong, where many Chinese shop to avoid import duties, fell 9 percent.

European luxury firms, chipmakers, energy and auto companies all derive over a tenth of their revenues from China, according to Morgan Stanley, which advised clients in a note last week to "be wary of China and emerging markets exposure".

Roughly 5 percent of U.S. earnings come from China but for some, such as restaurant chain Yum, owner of Pizza Hut and KFC, the figure is as high as 50 percent, Deutsche Bank data shows.

So a slower China is bad for company earnings and for emerging markets who rely on its custom.

But the implications stretch further still - right to the

Endret 16.07.2013 08:39 av OldNick
OldNick
04.08.2013 17:42
#14832

Endre
Finansfolk begynner å stille seg i kø for "å telle China ut".

Det tror jeg er alt for tidlig.

China har tross alt et handlingsrom som er unikt i verden, med overskudd på handelsbalanse og statsbudsjett, en befolkning som vil ha en bedre levestandard og jobber for det, og er en eldgammel kulturnasjon.

På tross av et autoritært styringssystem, så har de fungerende institusjoner som holder relativt god kontroll med samfunnet og utviklingen.

Mye kan sies om China's politiske system, men det er mye mer handlinskraftig enn mange land "vi ønsker å sammenligne oss med". Så de kan få gjennomført reformer som bedrer økonomiens funksjon.

Men, samtidig bør man være noe skeptisk til de offisielle tallene. Det går begge veier. De fleste antyder vekst-tallene er for høye, men de diskuterer sjelden den skjulte (svarte) økonomiske aktiviteten. Den er betydelig, estimert til mellom 1-2000 mrd USD/år.

En annen viktig fokus for Chinesiske myndogheter er å få valutaen konvertibel. Det pågår en rekke tiltak, de fleste gjennom bilaterale avtaler om at handel skal gå med lokal valuta, f.eks. med Japan (Yen og Yuan).

Mye vil være gjort i en 10-20 års periode.

Det fokuseres på risiki i chinesisk økonomi, så de skal ikke gjentas, men den viktigste er hvordan landet kan gå fra et autoritært 1-partisystem til et mer demokratisk system med flere partier og demokratiske institusjoner.

Den økonomiske utviklingen kan stoppe opp dersom China ikke får ordnet opp med problemer som:

- Et demografi-problem som kan bli formidabelt (om ingenting gjøres)
- En økende forskjell mellom massene og "de rike" (vi har lest om en lang rekke entrprenører som har blitt steinrike, mindre kjent er hva partitoppene har ranet til seg, det er potensielt "dynamitt"). GINI-koeffisient er angitt til 47.4 for China, til sammenligning har USA 45 og EU 30.7 (ref: CIA WFB).
- Et enormt korrupsjonsproblem
- Skyggebank systemet
- Forurensingsproblemer (smog, støv, forurenset vann etc.)

Kina ruller mot stupet

DN.no
31.07.2013

Utfordringene og problemene i den kinesiske økonomien har blitt stadig tydligere den siste tiden.

Over 1400 selskaper i Kina ble forrige uke beordret om å kutte overflødig produksjonskapasitet, mens det ble kunngjort at det ikke skal bygges et eneste nytt offentlig bygg i Kina de neste fem årene.

Økonomer advarer nå om at Kinas økonomi, som er bygd på eksport og kredittvekst, ligner den japanske økonomien i 1989 - to år før krisen kom med et brak.

I Japan endte massiv overinvestering i eiendomsmarkedet med en gedigen eiendomsboble og flere årtier uten vekst.

Kina er foreløpig et stykke unna den onde deflasjonsspiralen med fallende priser, redusert forbruk og økt gjeldsoppbygging som red Japan som en mare fra tidlig på 90-tallet.

Inflasjonen i Kina er nå 2,7 prosent mens veksten er rundt 7,5 prosent, som er den laveste siden 1990. Veksten i Kina har falt ni kvartaler på rad.

Smertegrense

Storbanken Morgan Stanley advarer imidlertid ifølge Reuters om at det nå finnes deflasjonstendenser i Kina, skriver di.se.

Avkastningen for hver eneste yuan som investeres i Kina blir dårligere og dårligere, og produsentprisene i landet har falt 16 måneder på rad.

Samlet kreditt i Kina har fra 2000 til 2012 vokst fra 105 prosent av bruttonasjonalproduktet (BNP) til 187 prosent. Og stadig mer av utlånene går ifølge Morgan Stanley til vanskjøttede statlige selskaper og pressede låntakere som ruller gjelden fremfor seg, i stedet for at det lånes ut til lønnsomme prosjekter som kan sette fart på veksten.

Et annet problem i Kina er at andelen av folket i arbeidsfør alder nå faller som en følge av ettbarnspolitikken, noe som vil ramme det innenlandske forbruket.

Endret 04.08.2013 17:43 av OldNick
OldNick
04.08.2013 17:45
#14833

Endre
Sjeføkonom Robert Bergqvist hos SEB sier til di.se at smertegrensen for Kinas vekst er rundt seks prosent fordi det da vil bli vanskelig å skape tilstrekkelig mange nye jobber, noe som vil medføre sosial uro og politisk usikkerhet.
______

Spøkelsesbyer i China, det kan bli et problem (om ingen bosetter seg der).

Et spørsmål om marked, tilbud og etterspørsel. Prisene må kanskje ned?


Forstaden Kangbashi i byen Ordos. Det nye sentrumsdistriktet er bygget for 300.000 personer, men så få som 28.000 mennesker rapporteres å bo der. Foto: Reuters/David Gray


Kina gransker forlatte gjeldskommuner

DN.no
30.07.2013

______

Et velkjent problem for China er demografi utviklingen - delvis forårsaket av 1-barns politikken.

1-barns politikken har vært en stor restriksjon for chineserne (selv om den langt fra har vært total), men ble satt igang for å stoppe "befolkningeksplosjonen" og mulige problemer med å fø langt mer enn 1 mrd mennesker.

Den problemstillingen er fortsatt tilstede, men den fører også til en meget skjev og spesiell aldersfordeling (sultkatastrofen under Mao's kulturrevolusjon - over 30 mill sultet igjel, har også satt sine spor).


China's befolkningspyramide

På tross av 1-barns politkken, vokser fortsatt China's befolkning med 6-7 mill/år. Det skyldes hovedsaklig en økende levealder på tross av babyunderskudd.

FN har anslått at China når befolkningstoppen i 2025 med ca. 1.4 mrd, deretter ventes den å krympe til ca. 940 mill i 2100 (snitt -6 mill/år).

Dersom ikke China endrer politikk, noe de kanskje er i ferd med for på lengre sikt å stabilisere befolkningen.

China: Measures to 'Improve' One-Child Policy Are Under Review

Beijing Faces Calls for More Personal Freedom


WSJ
Aug. 4, 2013

Beijing - China's authorities are studying measures to "improve the one-child policy" by allowing some families to have a second child, the official Xinhua News Agency reported late Friday, citing an official with the national family planning agency.

"Our commission is organizing research on the size, quality, structure and distribution of the population so that we can propose plans to improve the [one-child] policy," Mao Qun'an, director of the propaganda office at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, told Xinhua.

"We'll have to move cautiously and coordinate between current situations and long-term objectives," said Mr. Mao, without elaborating.

Beijing is under pressure to ease its grip on child birth in response to calls for more personal freedom in an increasingly affluent society. Such a move is also aimed at offsetting the financial effects of an aging society and addressing potential labor shortages in the years ahead. The nation's working population declined for the first time in decades last year due to the nation's tight controls on child birth.

Despite Mr. Mao's cautious rhetoric, expectations are building for Beijing to loosen controls on the nation's decadeslong one-child policy.

The 21st Century Business Herald on Friday cited unnamed sources with the national family planning agency as saying such moves could be expected either late this year or next year.

Some economists agree. The window for population-policy reform could be around the Communist Party's annual meeting in the fourth quarter of this year or around the National People's Congress meeting early next year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said in a note released Saturday.

An estimated 9.5 million "incremental babies" will be born if such a move takes place as

Endret 04.08.2013 17:46 av OldNick
OldNick
04.08.2013 17:47
#14834

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expected, Mr. Lu said.

China limits couples to only one child. Violators can face financial penalties. Minority groups are exempt, and anyone with enough money can get around penalties for having a second child. Rural families whose first child is a girl may have a second child, as can married couples who are both themselves only children.

In many rural areas, the restrictions are routinely ignored, though policies in the cities have been more tightly enforced.
______

China's Infamous 'One-Child Policy' Is About To Become A 'Two-Child Policy'

Matthew Boesler, Business Insider
Aug. 3, 2013

Since 1979, China has maintained a population control program known as the "one-child policy," in most cases limiting families living in urban areas to only one child.

The country just completed a once-in-a-decade leadership transition earlier this year, though, and the new management is eager to show its reform-minded stripes amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.

As a result, the "one-child policy" may be set to become a "two-child policy" fairly soon.

"According to the 21st Business Herald which cited sources close to the National Population and Family Planning Commission, China may significantly relax its one-child policy at end-2013 or early-2014 by allowing families to have two children if at least one parent is from a one-child family," writes BofA Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu in a note to clients. "A plan for allowing all families to have two children after 2015 is also being reviewed. We believe the news to be reliable and is in line with our view."

Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma says a transition to a "two-child policy" would be something of a long-term stimulus package.

"As tens of millions of sibling-less people in China are now entering their child-bearing age, we expect this policy shift would induce the fourth baby boom of the country," writes Jun in a note. "This projected baby boom, although in smaller scale than the previous three, would reverse the declining trend of newborn babies since 1990s and would eventually help mitigate the negative impact of aging population on economic growth and financial sustainability of the pension system."

BofA's Ting calculates around 10 million new babies as a result of the proposed policy shift:

If the 21st Business Herald news is confirmed, the demographic reform path (which we called "piecemeal path" in our earlier report) is more conservative than our baseline "middle path", which is defined as allowing all families to have two children without any restrictions. So is this a big disappointment? Not really. This is because the one child policy now is only strictly enforced in urban areas and some developed rural areas where most couples of child-bearing age have at least one singleton (note China's one-child policy started in the late 1970s).

According to the 2005 population survey, singletons account for 29.3% of Chinese aged 30 or under (the generation affected by the one-child policy). The ratio should be significantly higher in urban areas. Assuming 60% of people of child bearing age in urban areas are singletons, on top of the 36% families which are already allowed to have two children, we estimate 48% of urban families of child bearing age could benefit from the coming reform. Using census data, there are 79mn women of child bearing age (23 to 42) this year. 48% of 79mn is 38mn. Assuming 25% of them choose to have a second child, about 9.5mn babies would be born as a result of this reform to one-child policy.


"We believe that the reform-minded president Xi and premier Li will use the opportunity of abolishing the one-child policy to build up their authority, show their determination in making changes and convince the Chinese people that they do have a roadmap for reforms," says Ting.

Endret 04.08.2013 17:48 av OldNick
OldNick
19.08.2013 11:51
#14886

Endre
Fagfolk sår tvil om kinesisk vekst

Fagøkonomer sår tvil om holdbarheten i kinesiske BNP-tall - og skepsisen deles av ingen ringere enn kinesernes egen statsminister Li Keqiang


NTB, E24.no
19.08.2013

Tvilen har ulmet i lang tid, sier økonomer og peker på sprikende statistikk.

Motstridende opplysninger gjør det vanskelig å anslå hvor mye Kinas brutto nasjonalprodukt BNP - den samlede verdien av varene og tjenestene landet produserer - egentlig vokser.

Tidligere i år ble det reist kritikk mot de månedlige handelstallene, som viste en helt annen utvikling enn alle hadde ventet.

Det er også uklart hvordan industriproduksjonen utvikler seg, og det rettes kritikk mot måten lønns- og prisveksten beregnes på.

«Menneskeskapt»

Tvilen er ikke noe nytt fenomen. Allerede i 2007 skal Li Keqiang, som da var leder for den høyt industrialiserte Liaoning-provinsen nordøst i Kina, ha sagt til USAs daværende Beijing-ambassadør at veksttallene var «menneskeskapte», det vil si ikke til å stole på.

I de seks årene siden da er denne uttalelsen blitt bekreftet gang på gang, sier professor Michael Pettis, som foreleser om finansspørsmål ved universitetet i Beijing. Han peker på at både månedlig og årlig statistikk legges fram tidligere i Kina enn for eksempel i Frankrike.

- Og da lurer man jo litt på hvordan kineserne er i stand til å gjøre dette raskere enn franskmennene, sier Pettis til nyhetsbyrået AFP. Dette er ett av mange spørsmål rundt Kinas økonomi som står ubesvarte, tilføyer han.

Tøv?

- Hvis det fantes en indeks for mistanker rettet mot Kinas offisielle statistikk, ville kurven ha gått gjennom taket. For å bruke et teknisk amerikansk begrep, handler det om avsindig tøv, sier den amerikanske analytikeren Stephen Green sarkastisk.

Den kinesiske økonomen Wang Qinwei, som arbeider i London, mener bruk av uholdbar statistikk vil slå tilbake på kineserne selv.

- Hvis tallene ikke er til å stole på, vil det kunne føre til gale beslutninger om politikk og reformer, sier Wang.

Kinas toppledere har sagt at de ønsker å endre landets kommunistiske økonomiske modell til et system som ligner mer på det man finner i USA og Japan. Innenlands forbruk skal bli den viktigste vekstskapende faktoren, og gi en langsommere, men mer stabil vekst.
OldNick
20.08.2013 19:16
#14894

Endre
Avviser kontant en hard landing i Kina

Verdens nest største økonomi tøffer videre i høyt tempo, insisterer Kinas sentralbanksjef


Odd S. Parr, HegnarOnline
20.08.2013

I et intervju med den statlige TV-kanalen China Central Television mandag avviste Kinas sentralbanksjef Zhou Xiaochuan mulighetene for en hard landing for verdens nest største økonomi.

- Kinas iboende vekstmomentum er ennå veldig sterkt. Vi vil ikke se en trend med vedvarende nedbremsing, sa han i intervjuet ifølge Wall Street Journal.

Xiaochuan signaliserte dermed tillit til Kinas økonomiske utsikter, uten behov for store endringer i pengepolitikken.

Samtidig økte han forventningene til at myndighetene vil øke tempoet på reformene i finanssektoren. Planer om å heve taket på innskuddsrenten er allerede kjent, uten at en tidsplan foreligger.

- Jeg tror at liberaliseringen av innskuddsrenten går som vi har planlagt, sa Xiaochuan ifølge avisen i intervjuet
OldNick
25.09.2013 17:30
#15037

Endre
Derfor unngår Kina en hard landing

Kinas skyggebankvirksomhet utgjør én av verdens største nedsiderisikoer


Marit Tronier Halvorsen, DN.no
25.09.2013

Den internasjonalt anerkjente økonomen Douglas Elliott mener frykten for en hard landing i Kina er overdreven.

Ifølge Elliot, som har jobbet over 20 år i ulike internasjonale investeringsbanker, undervurderer markedene størrelsen på musklene til de kinesiske myndighetene.

Det er liten tvil om at veksten vil bli avdempet. Spørsmålet er om dette skjer plutselig og dramatisk eller sakte og moderat, sier Elliott.

Jeg mener en hard landing i Kina er lite sannsynlig, sier han.

Myndighetenes krefter

DN.no møter den amerikanske toppøkonomen i Sparebank 1 Markets lokaler i Oslo. Her holdt han onsdag seminar om Kinas gjeldsoppbygging og landets uoversiktlige og underkapitaliserte finanssystem.

I det siste har den voksende gjelden, og da spesielt via det uregulerte gråmarkedet og gjeldsforpliktelsene til kommunene, fått mye oppmerksomhet. Ikke minst blinker varsellampene hos storbankene og eiendomsutviklere, som har stått for en betydelig del av utlånsveksten.

Det avgjørende er om disse ubalansene er så alvorlige og så vanskelige å håndtere at det vil føre til en hard landing, sier Elliott.

Han peker på at spekulasjonene i hvorvidt Kina er på vei inn i en liten finanskrise, samt at stadig flere markedsaktører peker på bobletendenser, har ført til investorflukt fra landet.

I den sammenheng er det viktig å merke seg at den kinesiske regjeringen både er veldig pragmatisk og veldig smart. Myndighetene har vist at de har enorme krefter til å kunne drive veksten fremover. De har vært gjennom 30 år med store utfordringer og likevel klart å oppnå svært høy vekst. Det gjør meg ganske sikker på at de også klarer å håndtere dagens utfordringer, sier han.

Skyggebankvirksomheten

Kinas skyggebanksektor har de siste årene skutt fart som en alternativ finansieringskilde for små og mellomstore bedrifter. Det offisielle banksystemet har hovedsakelig finansiert statlige virksomheter.

Utviklingen har ført til en uoversiktlige situasjon, som i dag regnes som en av de største nedsiderisikoene for både markedet og det globale makrobildet. Ettersom SMB-bedriftene har vært en viktig bidragsyter til veksten i Kinas økonomi, har imidlertid myndighetene enn så lenge sett gjennom fingrene på virksomheten.

Det hindrer dem riktignok ikke for å agere overfor systemet dersom de ønsker det, påpeker Elliott.

Han trenger bare å minne om sommerens store bankthriller. Da kinesiske banker sto i fare for å gå tom for kontanter i juni, nektet den kinesiske sentralbanken - People's Bank of China - først å komme dem til unnsetning. Dermed løp den korte referanserenten i det kinesiske pengemarkedet, det såkalte interbankmarkedet, nærmest løpsk i løpet av få timer.

I ettertid har handlingen blitt tolket som et planlagt grep for å begrense veksten i det finansielle systemet utenom de statlige bankene.

Endret 25.09.2013 17:30 av OldNick
OldNick
25.09.2013 17:31
#15038

Endre
Viktige poenger

Sjeføkonom Shakeb Syed i Sparebank 1 Markets var onsdag svært fornøyd med å ha fått hanket inn den internasjonale økonomistjernen. Han mener amerikaneren er inne på noen svært viktige poenger.

At vi ikke skal undervurdere det arsenalet Kina har med tanke på å drive med stimulerende politikk, har jeg selv nevnt i mine analyser, sier Syed til DN.no.

Elliott drar dette videre og spesifiserer det på skyggebanksystemet. I mine øyne er dette noe som positivt nyansererer nedsiderisikoen, sier sjeføkonomen.

Syed støtter også Elliott når han understreker at Kinas finanssystem fortsatt er underutviklet - og at det i tiden fremover vil vokse og utvikle seg i et raskt tempo

Når økonomien har blitt så stor og har begynt å åpne seg mer, kreves det et finanssystem som bygger opp under dette. Jeg mener at potensialet for at finanssystemet i Kina fortsatt skal kunne drive veksten i Kina er stort på oppsiden. Det er riktignok ikke uten risiko, og den største risikoen er kanskje den ekstreme gjeldsgraden og skyggebankvirksomheten, sier han.

FAKTA: Kinas skyggebanker

- Ikke-regulerte banker som hovedsakelig har finansiert kommunale prosjekter i provinsene. Da staten lanserte en redningspakke på 4000 milliarder yuan (3990 milliarder kroner) under finanskrisen i 2008, tilførte sentralbanken dessuten ytterligere likviditet i markedet for å støtte bankenes utlånsvekst. De siste to årene har denne likviditeten strømmet videre til skyggebankene.

- Noen av lånene er dessuten pakket med andre utlån og statsobligasjoner i kompliserte strukturer og solgt videre gjennom banker som spareprodukter til vanlige kinesere. Disse produktene ligger utenfor bankenes balanse.

Kilde: Dagens Næringsliv

Endret 25.09.2013 17:30 av OldNick
OldNick
01.10.2013 21:32
#15061

Endre
Mer om Elliott (se over), fra Prof. Amdam, BI

Et potensielt bonanza for de som gjør de rette trekkene

Her er internasjonal toppøkonom overbevist om at det er store penger å tjene. BI-professor stiller seg bak rådet


Marit Tronier Halvorsen, DN.no
30.09.2013

Den anerkjente økonomen Douglas Elliott er overbevist om at Kina unngår den harde landingen mange i dag frykter. Da amerikaneren i forrige uke gjestet et seminar i regi av Sparebank 1 Markets presenterte han en prognose som viste en noe avdempet økonomisk vekst på rundt syv prosent i årene fremover.

Toppøkonomen mener dette i kombinasjon med en stadig privatisering av næringslivet samt en finanssektor under rask utvikling vil åpne flere og flere muligheter for investorer utenfra.

Dette betyr et potensielt bonanza for de som gjør de rette trekkene, sier amerikaneren.

Mulighetene for å tjene store penger er der. Lettjente er de riktignok ikke, sier han.

Risikovurdering

Elliott, som kan vise til over 20 år i ulike internasjonale investeringsbanker, er i dag ansatt i den politiske tankesmien Brookings Institute i Washington D.C.. Overfor DN.no forteller han at han tidlig forsto viktigheten av å forstå Kina, og ikke minst hvordan landets finanssystem egentlig fungerer.

I dag mener han dette er selve nøkkelen til Kina-suksess.

I Kina kan man egentlig tenk på staten som en seniorpartner i en familiebedrift. Det betyr at investeringen innebærer en risiko for at avgjørelser kan komme raskt og plutselig og endre hele bildet. Denne risikoen må alltid vurderes, sier han.

Samtidig er det slik at kineserne også vil at du skal tjene penger. Kina ønsker seg de vestlige investorene, understreker Elliott.

Stiller seg bak

Professor i International Management og Kina-ekspert Rolv Petter Amdam på Handelshøyskolen BI kan ikke annet enn å stille seg bak rådene.

Dette er spesielt viktig for norsk næringsliv i Kina. I motsetning til for eksempel svenskene som med Ikea og Hennes & Mauritz retter seg mot forbrukerne, er norske bedrifter i all hovedsak rettet mot sektorer der den kinesiske staten står sterkt, for eksempel, shipping, offshore og maritimt, sier Amdam til DN.no.

Han mener energisektoren i Kina i dag er et godt eksempel for å illustrere hvordan ulike prosesser og interesser driver utviklingen fremover.

Sektoren er i dag dominert av gigantiske statlige og halvstatlige selskaper som står i en fase der de skal internasjonaliseres sterkt. Dette er planer som er forankret i kommunistpartiets sterke tro på at Kina må få mer kontroll og bli sterke på energisektoren for å kunne vokse og utvikles industrielt, sier han.

Det er klart at de må tjene penger og at det derfor er en bedriftsøkonomisk logikk i dette. Samtidig er det en planøkonomi som sier at disse sektorene skal utvikles over lang tid og vokse så så mange prosent, nesten koste hva det koste vil. Denne strategiske tenkningen gjør at kommunistpartiet og staten handler ut i fra langsiktig strategisk planlegging, sier BI-professoren.

Flytter egne rundt

Elliott er opptatt av at ikke minst et raskt voksende finanssystem innebærer mange muligheter, også for investorer fra Norge. Også her er kommunistpartiets rolle avgjørende, understreker han.

Det er blant annet verdt å merke seg at toppfolkene som har mest innflytelse kommer fra Kommunistpartiet og flyttes rundt i systemet hele tiden, sier han.

Dette tror Amdam ved BI at mange i denne delen av verden kan ha vanskelig for å ta inn over seg.

Kommunistpartiet er representert i de store finansielle institusjonene, selv om vi kanskje ikke ser dem. Det betyr at disse toppsjefene kanskje har en mer generalistkunnskap fremfor at de er eksperter på området. De er imidlertid eksperter på statlig styring og tar hele tiden avgjørelser i tråd med de planer og mål Kommunistpartiet har bestemt, sier han.
OldNick
11.11.2013 23:50
#15156

Endre
Et par artikler om China, Yuan og det kinesiske lederskapet og planene fremover

How China Can Cause The Death Of The Dollar And The Entire U.S. Financial System

Guest post at ZeroHedge
Nov. 8, 2013

______

Det største spørsmålet i Kina akkurat nå

I disse dager avgjøres Kinas skjebne de neste ti årene


Fredrick Chr. Ekeseth, E24.no
07.11.2013

I helget innledet sentralkomiteen i det kinesiske kommunistpartiet og dets 376 medlemmer et tredagers møte som avgjør Kinas retning de neste ti årene.

BI-professor og Kina-ekspert Jon Arne Isachsen tror dagens regjering vil skjele til Deng Xiaopings "reformere og åpne opp"-program i perioden 1978 til 1993.

Kun signaler

Det blir likevel vanskelig for utenforstående å tolke utfallet av toppmøtet, selv om det vil bli skrevet "side opp og ned" om resultatet, påpeker han.

Det vil ende opp som signaler, og det som kommer ut er svært vanskelig å tolke, sier professoren.

Det han håper på, er signaler om endringer i eiendomsretten til jordbrukseiendom på landsbygden.

En stor pott

De tidligere kollektivene har blitt familiedrevne og økt produktiviteten med femti prosent, men staten eier fortsatt eiendommene og de lokale myndighetene nyter godt av inntektene.

Den private eiendomsretten testes allerede ut i enkelte deler av landet.

Tilflyttede arbeidere tillates i økende grad bostedstilhørighet og tilknyttede offentlige ytelser (hukou) der de jobber fremfor der de kommer fra, samt at bønder i visse områder gis større innflytelse ved salg av jordbrukseiendommene sine.

Dette ventes å bli ekspandert til flere kinesiske provinser.

Isachsen ser eiendomsretten på landsbygden som den største utfordringen i Kina, ved siden av dominansen til de statlige virksomhetene.

Det er en stor pott som ligger der, og ikke er fordelt, sier han.

Varsler maktkamp

Signaler i retning av mer privat eiendomsrett vil imidlertid utfordre dem som nyter godt av slik det er i dag.

Lokale myndigheter har beriket seg direkte og personlig gjennom dype lommer. Og der det kun er ett parti som har makten, blir det korrupsjon, påpeker han.

Det er en maktkamp som må komme, sier professoren.

Forbereder befolkningen

Kinas tilnærming til utfordringene er imidlertid alt annet enn vestlig.

Og med en flere årtusen gammel sivilisasjon i ryggen der historien er full av statlige overgrep og forsøk på statskupp, trør myndighetene varsomt.

I forrige måned uttalte Kinas nye president Xi Jinping til China Daily at landet måtte øke sin bevissthet "om uventede utfordringer og gripe mulighetene i den vitenskaplige og teknologiske revolusjonen".

Samtidig advarte han om at "vi kan ikke vente, nøle eller slakke av".

Kan dere tenke dere vestlige politikere si noe sånt, sier Isachsen retorisk.

Føler seg frem

Det er ikke bare kulturforskjeller.

Ordvalget skal gå hjem hos 1,3 milliarder mennesker.

Tilnærmingen er at "vi føler oss frem på steinene mens vi krysser elven", siterer professoren.

Motstridende interesser

Hvem som skal eie hva er et fordelingsspørsmål, presiserer han.

Men situasjonen er låst, og hvordan det skal kunne løses opp ér det store spørsmålet.

De etablerte i provinsene er veldig lite interessert i dette, sier Isachsen.

Får ikke lån

Samtidig sluses overskuddene fra Kinas 120 statseide selskaper, der mange er monopoler, vekk fra statskassen og fellesskapet, påpeker han.

Fire statseide banker kontrollerer også halvparten av markedet.

Vanlige foretak får ikke finansiert, fordi markedet er monopolisert, sier professoren.

Selv om han mener at flere alternativer må på banen, fny
OldNick
13.11.2013 11:20
#15160

Endre
Om resultatet fra toppmøtet i Sentralkomiteen i China's kommunistpasrti om planene fremover.

Kina har godkjent reformplanene

Kinesiske myndigheter legger frem planene for det neste tiåret


TDN Finans, NTB, Marit Tronier Halvorsen
12.11.2013

Den 18. sentralkomiteen i Kinas kommunistiske parti har godkjent reformplanene ved slutten av et firedagers møte tirsdag.

Det melder det statlige kinesiske nyhetsbyrået Xinhua tirsdag, skriver TDN Finans.

Bærekraftig vekst

Det har vært ventet at en ny 10-årig reformplan vil handle om hvordan økonomien skal rebalanseres for å få til en mer bærekraftig vekst fremover.

Detaljene er ikke gjort kjent, men ifølge det statlige nyhetsbyrået Xinhua innbærer planene at Kinas regjerende kommunistparti vil la markedet spille en avgjørende rolle i fordelingen av ressurser. Målet er å oppnå avgjørende resultater innen år 2020, het det i en offisiell melding fra nyhetsbyrået.

Xinhua opplyser at Kina blant annet skal reformere systemet for inntektsdistribusjon, samt gjennomføre skattereformer og finanspolitiske reformer. Barrierene mot markedene skal tas bort, samtidig som at systemet for budsjetthåndtering skal forbedres. Det vises også til viktigheten av å balansere utgifter og inntekter. Videre skal man fremskynde utviklingen av handelsfrie områder.

Nyhetsbyrået opplyser at landets myndigheter i tillegg vil etablere en statlig sikkerhetskomite for å bedre systemene og strategiene som skal ivareta den nasjonale sikkerheten, samt bedre den sosiale utviklingen og stabiliteten.

Bærekraftig vekst
DNB Markets analytikere skriver i sin morgenrapport at reformen «vil kunne innebære tiltak for å øke urbaniseringen, bl.a. ved å gjøre det lettere for bønder å selge sine eiendommer når de forlater landsbygda».

«Det er også ventet at man vil løsne på registreringssystemet for husholdningene, som hindrer tilgang til utdanning og velferdsgoder utenfor deres hjemsted», påpeker meglerhuset, som videre viser til at det er ventet at målet for BNP-veksten neste år vil bli satt til 7,0 prosent.
______

Slik skal Kina sikre det økonomiske mirakel

Kommunistpartiet har vedtatt nye reformer etter fire dager langt toppmøte


Even Landre, Jo Andre Aakvik, E24.no
12.11.2013

I etterkant av toppmøtet i sentralkomiteen varsles det reformer innenfor en lang rekke områder - alt fra forsvar via eiendomsrett til økonomisk politikk skal overhales.

- Kinas mål er å oppnå avgjørende resultater innen år 2020, heter det i en melding det offisielle nyhetsbyrået Xinhua refererer fra møtet.

Sentralkomiteen er det øverste organet i det kinesiske kommunistpartiet - utenom partikongressene som avholdes hvert femte år.

Helgens toppmøte er det første siden Xi Jinping overtok som president i Kina etter Hu Jintao for et år siden.

Reformkomité

Så langt er det ikke kommet detaljer om hva de 370 medlemmene i sentralkomiteen har vedtatt, men av de viktigste hovedpunktene som gjengis av det statlige nyhetsbyrået Xinhua og internasjonale media er:

- Stimulere til økt vekst i privat næringsliv
- Redusere kontrollen av kapital og investeringer
- Det skal gjennomføres en større skattereform
- Det skal gjennomføres en landreform, blant annet gjennom økte eiendomsrett for bønder
- Skillet i inntektsnivåene i Kina skal reduseres
- Det skal gjennomføres politiske reformer
- Det skal gjennomføres reformer av forsvaret

Til å lede de store reformene skal det utpekes en egen reformkomite, opplyser myndighetene.

Det er så langt ikke kjent hvordan denne komiteen skal organiseres og settes sammen.

Ifølge et kommunikéet har sentralkomiteen vedtatt «omfattende dypere reformer».

- Kina vil utdype sin økonomiske reformer for å sikre at markedet vil spille

Endret 13.11.2013 11:20 av OldNick
OldNick
13.11.2013 11:21
#15161

Endre
en «avgjørende» rolle i tildeling av ressurser, heter det i uttalelsen fra kommunistpartiets komitè.

Det har vært knyttet stor spenning til at ledelsen i Kommunistpartiet vil presentere en ny reformagenda for de neste ti årene.

Partiet har avholdt toppmøte for lukkede dører siden lørdag.

Et mirakel

Xinhua skriver tirsdag at Kommunistpartiet nå satser på å blåse nytt liv inn i det økonomiske mirakel nasjonen har gjennomlevd de siste 20-30 årene.

- Kinas økonomiske reformer har nå nådd en kritisk fase, og landet må skape ny begeistring om reformene hvis det skal klar å opprettholde en raskt og bærekraftig økonomisk vekst, etter år hvor landet er åpnet opp og reformert, skriver det statlige nyhetsbyrået.

Xinhua peker på at kinesisk økonomi har vokst i rekordfart, fra en årlig verdiskapning på 364,5 milliarder yuan i 1978 til 52 billioner i 2012.
______

Asia stocks fall as China meeting disappoints

By Daniel Inman, Marketwatch
Nov. 13, 2013

Asian stocks moved lower after China's leaders failed to provide a clear direction on policy over the coming decade, while the Nikkei's strong upward streak in the last two sessions came to a halt.

Stocks in China in particular reacted badly to Tuesday's conclusion of the Third Plenum - a four day meeting that will set the course for the world's second-largest economy for the coming 10 years. The communique that followed the meeting called for fewer investment restrictions and greater rights for farmers, but was lacking in specific details.

mer på link
______

Hong Kong posisjon som finanssenter kan være truet av at kinesiske ledere prioriterer Shanghai.

Asia i dag: Hong Kong frykter Kina-reformer

Morten Iversen, DN.no
13.11.2013

Kina har ambisjoner om å gjøre Shanghai til et av de største og viktigste finansmarkedene i verden. Dette truer posisjonen finansbyen Hong Kong har hatt i over 60 år.

Det var store forventninger til at den kinesiske kommunistledelsen skulle legge frem planer etter det økonomiske toppmøtet som også ville få fart på kinesiske aksjer. Shanghai-børsen faller fra morgenen av. Det lyser rødt på alle de største aksjemarkedene i Asia fra morgenen av.

«Til tross for at de har satt en frist i 2020 for å oppnå avgjørende resultater, mangler kommunikeet detaljer og målbare indikatorer», skriver HSBC Global Research i en rapport.

MSCI Asia Pacific-indeksen har falt med 0,7 prosent i dag.

KINA: Det sies at når Kina nyser pådrar Hong Kong seg en lungebetennelse. Hong Kong-børsen har falt med 1,5 prosent i dag - et halvt prosentpoeng mer enn nøkkelindeksen ved Shanghai-børsen. Det er stor usikkerhet rundt hva kinesiske myndigheter planlegger av reformer, når dette skal skje og hvordan det vil påvirke Hong Kong.

Den kinesiske kommunistledelsen la frem en vag plan etter firedagersmøtet i den tredje plenumkonferansen av den 18. partikongressen siden etableringen av dagens Kina. Det viktigste som kom ut fra kommunikeet er at markedet skal få spille en viktigere rolle fremover på å fastsette priser.

Dette vil bli en gradvis prosess frem mot 2020, men det er også et veikart for den kinesiske økonomien for de neste 15 årene. Hong Kong har i alle år etter kommunistrevolusjonen i 1949 hatt en svært viktig rolle for Kina.

Fortsatt er finansmarkedet i Hong Kong en viktig tilrettelegger for kinesiske selskaper som har behov for kapital og en inngangsdør til Kina for utenlandske selskaper.

Hong Kong vil møte nye utfordringer hvis Kina åpner grensene mer til de internasjonale markedene, slik president Xi Jinping og resten av kommunistledelsen ønsker. Nye frihandelssoner skal etter planen ha mange av de samme rettighetene og fordelene som Hong Kong har i dag. Forskjellen er at de vil bli

Endret 13.11.2013 11:21 av OldNick
OldNick
13.11.2013 11:22
#15162

Endre
plassert på det kinesiske fastlandet.

Hong Kong, som har en viss grad av selvstyre fra Kina, frykter å bli isolert når Kina bygger opp Shanghai som et finanssenter. Svaret er å knytte sammen Hong Kong med Macau og Guangdong i Sør-Kina.

- Hong Kong har ingen fremtid hvis vi ikke kan fusjonere Perledeltaregionen i Sør-Kina, sa direktør Justin Chiu hos Cheung Kong Holdings, som kontrolleres av Asias rikeste mann, på et seminar på tirsdag.
______

Stort sett alle utenlandske kommentarer til kommunikeene og statspressen i China er tilbakeholdne med skrytet.

Signalene er uklare.

China Vows Bigger Role for Markets as Party Closes Summit

Bloomberg News
Nov. 13, 2013

China elevated the role of markets while maintaining the state's dominance in the nation's economic strategy, seeking to balance finding new sources of growth with sustaining the Communist Party's grip on power.

The nation will make markets "decisive" in allocating resources, according to yesterday's communique from the third full meeting, or plenum, of the party's 18th Central Committee in Beijing, which stopped short of unveiling detailed policy shifts. The state will remain "dominant" in the economy, indicating limits on reducing government involvement.

The statement from the President Xi Jinping-led session suggests freer pricing on interest rates, farmland and energy without changing the central role of state-owned enterprises, according to Bank of America Corp. The party will set up a team to coordinate and supervise policies under the updated principles and more specific measures may follow in the coming weeks or months.

"It remains to be seen whether actions are as loud as words," Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said in a note. "There will be reforms but they will not go far enough to break many old state-owned entity interests."

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) fell 0.8 percent at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was down 1.3 percent as the statement disappointed investors looking for specifics on policy shifts to combat cooling growth in the world's second-largest economy. Hao Hong, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Bocom International Holdings Co., said yesterday that the meeting "underwhelms in details."
Regional Debt

China's leaders are under pressure to revamp the nation's finances as swelling local-government debt highlights the risk of a buildup of bad loans and state businesses' access to bank funding crowds out small firms. The document didn't explicitly discuss specific issues such as regional borrowing, interest rates or the one-child policy, while referring generally to giving farmers more property rights.

"It's going in the right direction is the most you can say," said Louis Kuijs, chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong. "Even though some of the phrasing is new, the ideas are not so new."
______

China Made Decisions About Market Reforms. We Think

By the Editors, Bloomberg
Nov. 13, 2013

The meeting of China's leaders that just wrapped up in Beijing was possibly the most important economic-planning session the world has seen in years. Or perhaps it wasn't. This being China, it's hard to say.

By now, China's leaders understand the reforms the economy needs, and they presumably spent the past few days discussing them -- but you'd hardly know it from the leaden communique issued after the gathering.

Endret 13.11.2013 11:22 av OldNick
OldNick
13.11.2013 11:23
#15163

Endre
Traditionally, after each handover of power, the third full meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's central committee is a big deal. Before this latest Third Plenum, the government was letting it be known that the session would stand in comparison with the one in 1978 that's widely -- if misleadingly -- credited with introducing China's program of market-oriented reforms and delivering more than three decades of astonishing economic growth.

As usual, though, the statement released after the meeting left analysts struggling to uncover meaning in commitments that could turn out to mean nothing. China will henceforth give markets a "decisive" role, the committee said -- albeit in a system in which the state will still be "dominant." To some commentators, that signaled an acceleration of pro-market reform; to others, a stalling. Another approach was to count the number of times the words "reform" and "socialism" appeared in the statement. (Respectively, 59 times and 28 times: Draw your own conclusion.)

The leadership's inability to speak plainly to the country about its plans shows how far China's system still has to travel before it achieves anything resembling political legitimacy: In this regard, in fact, the ruling elite has lately been moving backward -- for instance, by tightening its repression of dissident voices. On the other hand, invoking China's pro-market revolution of the late 1970s hardly signals complacency, let alone a desire to turn back the clock.

President Xi Jinping and his comrades plainly understand that China's growth will fade and resistance to their leadership will increase unless corruption is curbed and the economy is rebalanced away from unprofitable state-directed investment and toward higher consumption and faster improvement of living standards. A growing role for market forces would achieve these shifts -- but it would also undermine the power and privileges of the elite and risk short-term economic disruption.

Beijing is aware. A recent report co-written by the World Bank and China's state-sponsored Development Research Center channeled advice that might have come from any champion of market capitalism. It called on the government to "implement structural reforms to strengthen the foundations for a market-based economy by redefining the role of government; reforming and restructuring state enterprises and banks; promoting competition; and deepening reforms in the land, labor and financial markets." Yet China's leaders have conservative instincts. They seek stability first. It's a matter of (their own) survival.

It's quite a dilemma. The government needs rapid growth to contain what would otherwise be increasing discontent; however, rapid growth, by its very nature, is politically destabilizing. The compromise lately has been cautious, sometimes grudging economic reform.

Over the coming weeks and months, as specific policies are announced, the intended pace of the next phase of political and economic reform will become clearer. For the country's sake, there's little question that faster would be best. For the sake of the country's current leaders, that isn't so obvious.
highlander
16.11.2013 14:35
#3443

Endre
Dette vil på sikt bidra til ytterligere BNP-vekst i Kina:

Nå skal flere kinesere få lov til å få flere barn...
OldNick
25.02.2014 09:18
#15464

Endre
Nedbremsing i eiendoms-sektoren.

Sikkert smart å dempe veksten (og prisveksten) i denne sektoren, gjør det hele mer håndterbart...

Kina strammer inn

Morten Iversen, DN.no
24.02.2014

Eiendomsfesten har fortsatt inn i 2014 i Kinas største byer med en prisoppgang på over 20 prosent i Shanghai. Myndighetene prøver å stramme inn og få kontroll med utlån til eiendomssektoren.

Med en innskuddsrente på et par-tre prosent og en tilsvarende inflasjon jakter likvide kinesere på alternative investeringer. Eiendomssektoren har gitt en langt høyere avkastning gjennom mange år.

Spekulativ kapital har stått bak mye av prisveksten som har utestengt svært mange fra drømmen om å eie egen bolig.

De siste prisstatistikkene viser at eiendomsprisene økte med i gjennomsnitt 9,6 prosent i 69 av Kinas 70 største byer i januar. I Shanghai har eiendomsprisene steget med 20,9 prosent det siste året. Beijing ligger like bak med en oppgang på 18,8 prosent.

Ifølge næringslivsavisen Shanghai Securities News har flere banker, blant annet Industrial Bank, innført lånestopp til kinesiske eiendomsutviklere de siste ukene. De har også strammet inn overfor blant annet sement- og stålprodusenter.

«Den kinesiske gjelden vokser for raskt. Spesielt veksten fra skyggebankvirksomheten medfører risiko. Myndighetene prøver å bremse veksten og risikoen bør være håndterlig», skriver strategisjef Shane Oliver hos AMP Capital i en ny analyse.

De regulerte bankene følger marsjordrer fra kinesiske myndigheter når de stoppet nye utlån.

- Eiendomsprisene er på et høyt nivå og eiendomssektoren kan gå inn i en korreksjonsfase. Gitt at eiendomsbransjen er en av søylene som støtter opp den kinesiske økonomien vil veksten miste litt av dampen når bransjen lider. Det er også dårlige nyheter for den globale veksten, sier analytiker Wei Wei hos West China Securities til Bloomberg.

Investorer har kvittet seg med eiendomsaksjer i dag ved børsene i Shanghai og Hong Kong. Aksjekursen på eiendomsgiganten China Vanke falt med 6,3 prosent etter tre timers handel. Siden juni har kursen falt med 44 prosent.

Nøkkelindeksen ved Shanghai-børsen har falt med over to prosent i dag. Dette er den kraftigste nedgangen på en dag siden minikrakket i juni i fjor. Det siste året har Shanghai-børsen falt med 11 prosent.

China Vanke, som er Kinas største eiendomsselskap, fikk i januar en omsetningsvekst på 45 prosent. De største eiendomsselskapene har ikke mistet troen på nybygging. I årets seks første uker foretok de tomtekjøp i Kinas største byer på over 60 milliarder kroner, ifølge Securities Daily.

Det er begrensninger på utførsel av kapital fra Kina, men det finnes omveier. De foretrekker vestlige markeder hvor de føler seg trygge. I Sydneys forsteder er det kinesiske investorer som står bak nye prisrekorder på boliger, ifølge eiendomsselskapet Ray White Real Estate.

- Den kinesiske eiendomsboomen stemmer. Mange kinesere er opptatt av å balansere investeringsporteføljen da kinesiske myndigheter forsøker å kjøle ned markedet. I mange tilfeller kjøper de en bolig til barn som sendes til Australia for å få en utdannelse, sier styreformann Brian White hos eiendomsselskapet til den australske avisen Herald Sun.

85 prosent av 750 leiligheter som det australske eiendomsselskapet Billbergia har lagt ut for salg på et eiendomsprosjekt har blitt solgt til kinesiske investorer.

Mer på link
OldNick
27.02.2014 00:16
#15480

Endre
Kinas skyggebankvirksomhet ikke stor

Sentralbanksjef Zhou Xiaochuan i Kina sier imidlertid at virksomheten vokser relativt fort. Sentralbanken vil håndtere situasjonen nøye, forsikrer han om


TDN Finans, DN.no
24.02.2014

Sentralbanksjef Zhou Xiaochuan i Kina sa på G20-møtet i Sydney at Kina vil håndtere skyggebankvirksomheten i landet nøye, melder Market News International (MNI) mandag.

- Skalaen på Kinas skyggebankvirksomhet er ikke stor, men vokser relativt sett raskt og vi vil håndtere den nøye, sa Zhou, og presiserte at systemet blir effektivt overvåket.

På G20-møtet sa han at arbeidet med rebalanseringen av økonomien vil fortsette.

- Økonomisk vekst på rundt syv til åtte prosent passer Kina og støtter global vekst og stabilitet, sa Zhou.

Ifølge ham står tjenestesektoren for en større andel av den innenlandske økonomien samtidig som industriandelen reduseres.

-Dette er en trend vi håper vil fortsette, sa han.

Sentralbanksjefen mener reduksjonen innen industrisektoren er et resultat av høyere kostnader som en følge av myndighetenes økte fokus på å redusere forurensing i landet. Han legger til at dette fokuset også fører til en negativ effekt på den økonomiske veksten i det kortsiktige bildet.
______


Forbruksvare. En statue av Folkerepublikken Kinas største kommunistleder Mao Zedong hilser innbyggere i Beijing på vei gjennom forurenset smog. Det er nå blitt vanskelig å få tak i maskene, ble det meldt onsdag. Foto: KIM KYUNG-HOON


Som en atomvinter

Den sterkt reduserte solstrålingen på grunn av den voldsomme luftforurensningen i Kina kan sammenlignes med effekten av en nukleær vinter, mener kinesiske forskere


NTB, DN.no
26.02.2014

Kinas største nettbutikk for salg av ansiktsmasker melder samtidig at lageret er tomt.

Den mørkleggende og avkjølende effekten av jordens atmosfære som man vil få fra støv og røyk etter en atombombeeksplosjon, får plantene også gjennom redusert sollys som skyldes smog. Dette vil føre til at avlingene i alle fall vil bli redusert, sier dosent He Dongxian ved Kinas landbruksuniversitet til det tyske nyhetsbyrået DPA i Beijing.

Mindre lys

På en smogdag blir sikten redusert. Det innebærer at lysstyrken som når plantene blir svekket, forklarer den kvinnelige forskeren.

Fotosyntesen blir svekket, noe som har stor innflytelse på plantenes vekst, ikke bare på bladene, men også på frøene og fruktene, sier hun.

Et resultat er mindre mengde og dårligere kvalitet, understreker hun.

He påpeker at smogen er særlig tett om vinteren og tidlig på våren, noe som særlig har stor betydningen for drivhusproduksjonen av planter.

Sammen med andre forskere driver He Dongxiang eksperimenter med smogens virkningen på såkorn.

Fordi vi hadde så mange dager med smog i januar, har såkornet vi sådde da, ennå ikke begynt å spire, sier hun.

Tomt for masker

Kinas største onlineforretning for salg av ansiktsmasker som brukes mot forurenset luft, meldte onsdag at de er gått tom. Folk har bestilt i store mengder etter at smog har lagt seg over store deler av Nord-Kina denne uken.

Beijings myndigheter opplyste onsdag at luftinnholdet av PM2,5, som er en betegnelse på små, skadelige partikler som trenger ned i lungene, var på 501 mikrogram per kubikkmeter.

Verdens helseorganisasjon (WHO) mener at et trygt nivå er 25 mikrogram.

En alternativ måling som USAs ambassade foretar og offentliggjør, var på 542 mikrogram.

I byen Shijiazhuang i Beijings naboprovins Hebei ble den offisielle målingen oppgitt til 661 mikrogram.

I Beijing var det sjette dag på rad med «oransje» varselnivå for luftforurensning. Sikten er redusert til noen få hundre meter.
OldNick
27.02.2014 23:17
#15491

Endre
Wow, China skal sette på bremsene i stålindustrien, nekte nye stålprosjekter til 2017.

Det vil legge press på både jernmalm, metallurgisk kull og relaterte industrier.

Gruvegiganter som VALE, Rio Tinto og BHP vil få føle dette gjennom lavere priser på jernmalm.

Hebei Iron & Steel says new project ban to help relieve oversupply

David Stanway, Reuters
Feb. 26, 2014

A vow by China to ban new steel projects until 2017 will help to relieve oversupply in the bloated sector but the policy will take time to have an effect, China's top steel maker said on Wednesday.

New steel capacity addition in China is still exceeding the tonnage due to be shut this year, Wang Jiguang, director of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's sales unit, told a Metal Bulletin conference in Beijing.

Overcapacity has dogged China's steel sector for years, wasting resources and causing big losses at heavily indebted mills, forcing them to rely on government subsidies.

Beijing has vowed to tackle the problem and said last week that it will ban new projects in industries such as steel and cement until 2017, while gradually eliminating existing operations that are below-standard.

"The government has put new capacity construction under strict controls and from now on the amount of additional capacity will be very small," Wang said.

But there would be a lag before the policy started to bite.

Wang said 30 million tonnes of production capacity was currently under construction nationwide, having been approved before the ban was put in place. Top producing Hebei province will only close about 15 million tonnes of capacity this year, he said, without giving figures for the rest of China.

China has around 300 million tonnes of surplus steel capacity, equal to nearly twice the European Union's total output last year. Still, mills have continued to expand, adding 69.2 million tonnes of new capacity in 2013, according to a report this month by consultancy CUsteel.

Wang said state-owned Hebei Group's utilisation rate for crude steel production capacity stood at about 80 percent in 2013, but the rate for some steel products was as low as 60 percent.

China's top steel association said this week the industry will not see a quick end to its troubles due to the level of overcapacity.

Efforts to consolidate the industry have also been hampered by corruption and heavy losses.

Hebei Iron and Steel, mired in losses, replaced its chairman in December. The firm's new chairman Yu Yong said profits and resources in some of its subsidiaries had been embezzled, according to a statement on the group's website.

Local media reported last month the company was undoing a government-backed consolidation that saw it take stakes in 12 private firms because it wanted to focus on managing its own assets to return to profit. Difficulities in consolidating the fragmented industry would make the market more competitive and more difficult to control.

Hebei province, which has an annual steel production capacity of 250 million metric tonnes, accounts for about a quarter of China's capacity, which stood at 1.04 billion tonnes last year.

As part of a broader plan to tackle overcapacity and clean up the environment, the government will shut 89.3 million tonnes of outdated steel mills in the northern cities and provinces by 2017 at the latest.
OldNick
28.02.2014 00:11
#15494

Endre
Nå som byggeboom'en i China bremses, satser Chinesiske myndigheter på å hjelpe eksportindustrien, og som vi vet, et middel som virker raskt er å svekke valutakursen.

Og det er akkurat det sentralbanken, som er gitt oppgaven med denne styringen, har startet å gjøre.

As Rest of Economy Weakens, Chinese Exports Surge

By KEITH BRADSHER, NYTimes.com
Feb. 25, 2014

OldNick
02.03.2014 22:06
#15500

Endre
Som også norske analytikere er enige om.

Derfor svekker Kina valutaen

Sentralbanken vil spekulantene til livs, mener analytiker


Marit Halvorsen, DN.no
28.02.2014

Kinesiske yuan viser fredag sitt største kursfall mot dollar siden revalueringen av valutaen i 2005, som følge av spekulasjoner om at landets myndigheter vil utvide kursbåndet i yuan.

Valutaen har den siste uken svekket seg mer enn én prosent mot dollaren. Svekkelsen kan bety at den nesten kontinuerlige styrkingen av den kinesiske valutaen siden sommeren 2005 være over.

Den kinesiske yuan er under streng kontroll av den kinesiske sentralbanken (PBoC). Bakgrunnen for svekkelsen er at sentralbanken ønsker økt volatilitet, noe som medfører høy risiko, skriver Wall Street Journal torsdag. Hensikten er å skvise ut kortsiktige spekulanter som satser på fortsatt oppgang, skriver avisen.

Ønsket

Valutaanalytiker Ole Håkon Eek-Nilsen i Nordea Markets er ikke i tvil:

Å svekke valutaen er en ønsket politikk fra sentralbanken, slår han fast.

Han tror først og fremst valutasvekkelsen henger sammen med at myndighetene ser svakhetstegn i vekstbilde i Kina.

Det å la valutakursen svekke seg litt, vil være veldig fint for eksporten, påpeker han.

Samtidig avfeier ikke valutaanalytikeren muligheten for at det kan ligge en annen strategi bak:

At svekkelsen kommer nå, kan være relatert til at man faktisk ønsker et litt mer balansert risikobilde rundt kursen, mener valutaanalytikeren.

Mye spekulasjon

Ifølge Eek-Nilsen er bekymringen til den kinesiske sentralbankens knyttet til at «alle verdens hedgefond spekulerer i valutakursen deres».

Det at resten av verden er ekstremt «long» yuan mot dollar, er uheldig for stabiliteten, sier han.

Når investorene har såkalte long-posisjoner vedder de på at valutakrisen kommer til å stige.

Får Kina en hard landing kan det føre til at alle spekulantene trekker seg ut på en gang. Da vil valutakursen svekke seg ekstremt mye, noe som kan gi høy inflasjon. De problemene vil man absolutt ikke vil ha, og da er det kanskje bedre å kontrollere seg ut av det, sier valutaanalytikeren.

Veddemålet mindre attraktivt

Valutaanalytikeren peker også på ikke minst såkalte «carry trades» har gjort markedet attraktivt.

I slike handler kjøper investorene yuan og finansierer dette med lån i eksempelvis dollar. På denne måten kan de bokføre renteforskjellen som profitt dersom valutakursen holder seg stødig.

Valutamarkedet går veldig mye etter «carry», altså hvor rentedifferansen er høyest. Det liker imidlertid enda bedre der det er mye rentedifferanse og små svigninger. Det forrholdstallet er «by far» best i kinesiske yuan, sier Eek Nielsen.

Torsdag skriver imidlertid Bloomberg News at yuan de siste månedene har gått fra å være det mest attraktive til det minst attraktive «carry trades»-veddemålet i fremvoksende økonomier.

Ikke siden høsten 2011 har valutakursen svekket seg så mye som den gjorde tirsdag denne uken, påpeker finansnettstedet i den sammenheng.

Ifølge DNB Markets er insentivet bak sentralbankens politikk opplagt.

Klarer man å overbevise markedet om at det er slutt på at yuanen kun vil styrke seg, vil man kunne redusere omfanget av spekulative kapitalstrømmer inn til Kina. Forventninger om en stadig sterkere valuta har ført til at slike strømmer til tider har vært svært store. Det har gitt økt press i en økonomi som har operert nær, om ikke over, full kapasitet, skriver meglerhusets analytikere i en rapport onsdag.
______

Produksjonen bremser opp i Kina

Produksjonsveksten i kinesisk industri fortsetter å avta og var i februar på det laveste på åtte måneder, viser tall fra myndighetene


NTB, HegnarOnline
01.03.2014

Den såkalte PMI-indeksen, som er en indikasjon på
OldNick
03.03.2014 08:07
#15504

Endre
aktiviteten innen kinesisk industri, falt i forrige måned til 50,2, viser tall fra landets statistiske sentralbyrå.

Indeksen har falt jevnt de siste månedene, fra 51,4 i november til 51 i desember og 50,5 i januar.

PMI på over 50 indikerer vekst i produksjonen, mens PMI på under 50 viser at det produseres mindre enn tidligere.

Kinesisk industri har rett nok økt produksjonen 17 måneder på rad, men veksten ser nå ut til å stanse helt opp.

Kinesisk økonomi vokste med 7,7 prosent i fjor, og dette var det laveste siden 1999.

Ekspertene spår en vekst på 7,5 prosent i inneværende år, men myndighetene har varslet reformer for å gjøre landet mindre avhengig av eksport og i stedet øke den innenlandske etterspørselen.

______

Asia i dag: Mot svakere vekst i Kina

Morten Iversen, DN.no
03.03.2014

En knapp måned før første kvartal skal avsluttes tyder foreløpige statistikker på at det blir en lavere enn forventet økonomisk vekst for Kina. Denne uken må kommunistledelsen forsvare seg til 3000 delegater i Folkekongressen.

Innkjøpssjefsindeksen (pmi) har historisk vist seg å ta pulsen på den kinesiske økonomien bedre enn noen andre undersøkelser siden årtusenskiftet. Innkjøpssjefer ved kinesiske fabrikker blir bedt om å vurdere ordreinngang og sammenligne denne med eksisterende budsjetter 24 ganger i året.

Februarmålingen fra den internasjonale finansinstitusjonen HSBC, som står bak en av de to kinesiske målingene, viser en pmi-måling på 48,5. En måling på under 50 viser at aktiviteten faller.

Den endelige målingen bekrefter svekkelsen i produksjonsindustrien. Det har blitt klart at det er en risiko for at bruttonasjonalproduktet vil vippe nedover. Dette krever finjustering av politikken for å stabilisere markedsforventningene og få en jevn veksttakt de neste kvartalene, sier sjeføkonom Hongbin Qu for Kina hos HSBC.

Den offisielle målingen viser en litt høyere pmi-måling, men det er usikkerhet rundt alle kinesiske statistikker i årets to første måneder. Årsaken er feiringen av kinesisk nyttår, som er på forskjellige tidspunkter hvert år.

Den økonomiske veksten i Kina havnet på 7,6 prosent i 2013. I år er målet på 7,5 prosent, ifølge den kinesiske næringslivsavisen Caixin. Dette kan vise seg å bli vanskelig.

- Vi tror nedgangen i Kina er reell. En strammere pengepolitikk de siste månedene har veid på produksjonsaktiviteten, sier Julian Evans-Pritchard hos Capital Economics.

Selv hvis årets to første måneder slås sammen er det en lav aktivitetsvekst i den kinesiske industrien.

- Det skjer større endringer i den økonomiske politikken i Kina for tiden. Vi ser antikorrupsjonskampanjene og økt fokus på forurensning. For øyeblikket er det ikke innkjøpssjefsindeksen som opptar kinesiske politikere mest. Det er andre ting de må forholde seg til, sier investeringsdirektør Yoon-Chou Chong hos Aberdeen Asset Management Asia til CNBC.

Delundersøkelser tegner et alvorlig bilde av aktiviteten i fabrikkene. Færre ordrer har gjort at fabrikkene har redusert antall ansatte de siste fire månedene. Sist dette skjedde var under finanskrisen for fem år siden da det var en kraftig lavere ordreinngang fra vestlige markeder.

Den årlige folkekongressen åpner i Kina denne uken. Det er det nærmeste landet kommer en demokratisk forsamling. Rundt 3000 delegater samles i Beijing for høre kommunistledelsens planer og strategier for det neste året.

Det økonomiske vekstmålet for 2014 vil formelt bli vedtatt under møtene de neste to ukene.

- En økonomisk vekst på syv prosent vil være mer i samsvar med Kinas langsiktige utviklingsplaner. Argumentet om hvorvidt målet bør være syv eller 7,5 prosent dreier seg mer om hvordan man skal vurdere konsekvensene av reformene - om reformer kan hjelpe den kortsiktige veksten eller ofre den, sier sjeføkonom for Kina hos JPMorgan Chase, Zhu Haibin, til Bloomberg.

Endret 03.03.2014 08:06 av OldNick
OldNick
07.03.2014 09:37
#15530

Endre
Kina vil vokse som ifjor

NTB, DN.no
05.03.2014

Kina tar sikte på at den økonomiske veksten blir på 7,5 prosent i år. Det er samme målsetting som i fjor.

Målsettingen tyder på at Kina vil legge mer vekt på reformer og en balansering av økonomien framfor en sterkere vekst. I 2013 vokste den kinesiske økonomien 7,7 prosent.

Årets målsetting ble kunngjort av statsminister Li Keqiang i en rapport til Folkekongressen årlige sesjon.

Li opplyste også at inflasjonen ventes å holde seg på 3,5 prosent, og at underskuddet på statsbudsjettet blir på 2,1 prosent av BNP.

Mer til forsvar

Det statlige nyhetsbyrået melder at forsvarsbudsjettet for 2014 øker med 12,2 prosent etter en økning året før på 11,2 prosent.

Bak tallene for den økonomiske veksten ligger en omprioritering av målsettingen for Kina i årene som kommer, fra en eksportdrevet økonomi over mot en langsommere og mer balansert vekst, basert mer på hjemmemarkedet.

Utfordringen blir å få til et skifte uten at det fører til nedleggelser av bedrifter og økt arbeidsløshet, med sosial uro som konsekvens.
______

PMI-indeks stiger i Kina

PMI-indeksen for tjenestesektoren fra HSBC/Markit økte fra januar til februar


Øyvind L. Knudsen, HegnarOnline
05.03.2014

Ferske tall viser at den kinesiske PMI-indeksen for tjenestesektoren fra HSBC/Markit endte på 51,0 i februar, sammenlignet med 50,7 måneden før.

Under 50 poeng indikerer en nedgang i sektoren.
______

Fredag kan Kinas finanskrise starte

Solcelleprodusent er tuen som kan velte Kina-lasset


Johann D. Sundberg, E24.no
06.03.2014

Merk deg firmanavnet Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology. For går det som pessimistene spår kan dette egentlig ganske ubetydelige selskapet starte spiralen som endre i full kinesisk finanskrise.

Fredag skal dette selskapet, som produserer solcellepaneler, etter planen betale 89,8 millioner yuan i renter på et obligasjonslån.

Men allerede tirsdag innrømmet selskapet at de pengene har de ikke. Shanghai Chaori har bare fire millioner yuan på konto og de tror ikke de klarer å skrape sammen resten i tide.

Småpenger

Det burde ikke være noen stor sak, kanskje. 89,8 millioner yuan tilsvarer tross alt ikke mer enn knappe 60 millioner norske kroner.

Det er bare det at misligholdet som høyst sannsynlig skjer fredag er det første misligholdet i et kinesiske obligasjonsmarkedet, ifølge Moody's Investor Service.

Varslet fra Shanghai Chaori har allerede skapt rystelser ved at obligasjonskurser har falt. Planlagte låneopptak er utsatt.

Spenningen er knyttet til hvordan kinesiske investorer vil reagere.

Vi tviler på at det finansielle systemet i Kina vil få en umiddelbar likviditetskrise som følge av dette misligholdet, men vi tror det vil starte en kjedereaksjon, skriver Bank of America-strategene David Cui, Tracy Tian og Katherine Tai i et notat tidligere i uken.

Sammenligner med finanskrisen

De sammenligner situasjonen med forløpet til finanskrisen i USA som eksploderte da Lehman Brothers gikk konkurs og ingen ønske å låne penger til noen lengre.

Krisen i USA startet egentlig i 2007 da pakkene med boliglån til lite kredittverdige kunder ikke ga den forventede avkastningene fordi lånekundene ikke betalte for seg.

Etterhvert førte misligholdene til at to av fondene som investeringsbanken Bear Stearns forvaltet gikk konkurs. Det førte i sin tur at Bear Stearns fikk alvorlige problemer og måtte bli reddet av sentralbanken som bidrog til at banken ble solgt til JPMorgan Chase & Co i mars 2008.

Men redningen av Bear Stearns løste ikke det underliggende problemet som bare vokste seg større inntil Lehman
OldNick
10.03.2014 08:13
#15537

Endre
Sjokktall for Kinas eksport

Eksporten fra Kina falt hele 18 prosent i februar. Selv om sjokktallet kan være kunstig lavt er eksporttrenden svært negativ for Kina


Vegard Røneid Erikstad, DN.no
08.03.2014

Folk ser mange negative nyheter fra Kina om dagen. Veksttakten går ned og når et selskap ikke klarer å betjene lånet sitt kan de tenke at det kommer til å bli et systemisk problem som smitter over på resten av økonomien, sier Ding Shuang, senior Kina-økonom i Citigroup i Hong Kong, til Bloomberg.

Nylig ble selskapet Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy det første kinesiske selskapet som ikke klarer å oppfylle forpliktelsene i et lokalt obligasjonslån.

Han tror de svake eksporttallene for februar kan forsterke en slik frykt.

Disse tallene kan underbygge det negative inntrykket og skape inntrykk av at den eksterne etterspørselen ikke er så stor, sier Shuang.

Som grafen under viser føyer februartallene inn i en mønster om at måneden kineserne feirer nyttår generelt er svakere enn de andre. Men årets tall er det svakeste på mange år.



Stort handelsunderskudd

Statistikken, som ble lagt frem lørdag, viser også at importen også økte med omtrent 10 prosent. Derfor hadde Kina et underskudd på handelsbalansen på 23 milliarder dollar i februar, som er det største på to år.

I forkant hadde 45 analytikere Bloomberg snakket med forventet en eksportvekst, med en medianforventning på 7,5 prosent.

De svake tallene blir forklart med den kinesiske nyttårsfeiringen som var i begynnelsen av måneden. Dessuten peker flere analytikere på at den samme måneden i fjor ikke er sammenlignbar pågrunn av oppblåste tall.

Men også når man ser på tolvmånedersveksten (se graf under) er den svakere enn på lenge. Den gjennomsnittlige veksten i eksport fra Kina fra februar 2012 til februar 2013 var bare fire prosent, mens den til sammenligning var på 34 prosent i januar 2011. Ikke siden oktober 1999 har tolvmånedersveksten vært like lav som nå.



Avventer neste måneds tall

Dariusz Kowalczyk, seniorøkonom i Credit Agricole SA i Hong Kong, mener handelsstatistikken kan være med å forklare at den kinesiske valutaen yuan har svekket seg den siste tiden. Men de fleste analytikerne vil avvente kommende måneds statistikk før de trekker noen konklusjoner om den økonomiske utviklingen.

Handelstallene vil bli mer reelle de neste månedene. Valutaen har blitt mer variabel og er dermed mindre forutsigbar enn før, skrev ANZ China i en rapport lørdag.
Graastein
12.03.2014 14:40
#599

Endre
I desember 2013 var jeg en tur i Kina, bla i Shanghai.

I Shanghai ruslet jeg rundt i et strøk som ble kalt noe slikt som the French Concession, her så jeg på eiendommer som var lagt ut til salgs i meglervinduer. The French Concession, ligger meget sentralt, og skal være et "hipt"? sted å bo.

Selvfølgelig gir min lille vandring i strøket bare et meget omtrentlig og høyst overfladisk grunnlag for å mene noe, men det som slo meg var følgende:

Prisen var betydelig høyere en i Oslo, kanskje rundt det dobbelte, det vil si rundt, kr 100 000 metern.

Selve bygningsmassen var imidlertid i nokså dårlig stand, mye så rett og slett litt ut som rønner. Videre virket det som omsetningen i mange av butikene lå på et beskjedent nivå. Folk så ikke velstående ut, bilparken, med en del unntak, var skranglete.

På bakgrunn av disse overfladiske observasjoner tenker jeg at eiendomsprisene ikke sto i forhold til nivået på resten av økonomien i sammfunnet.

Dette taler for at det er en bobble.

Endret 12.03.2014 14:40 av Graastein
OldNick
21.05.2014 07:48
#15724

Endre
Begynner det å blåse betydelig motvind for den kinesiske vekstmaskinen?

Det indikeres i denne artikkelen.

Even optimistic investors are starting to lose faith in China

David Berman, Globe and Mail
May 20, 2014

China has a problem: It is losing its supporters.

As the country's once-stellar economic growth slows to levels once deemed unacceptable among economists, a number of investors had been maintaining bullish views on the country and its long-term potential.

Now, some of these views are starting to shift, raising concerns that the former engine of the global economy is becoming one of its key risks.

Mark Mobius, manager of the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund and for decades one of the top names in global investing, has lowered his exposure to China to below 16 per cent, as of the end of March.

That's down significantly from a weighting of more than 22 per cent a year ago and below China's 18.5-per-cent weighting in the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

As well, none of the top 10 holdings in Mr. Mobius's fund are based in China, versus four Chinese companies that crack the index's top 10.

To be sure, China has long attracted its share of skeptics who saw a toxic mix of local-government debt, entrenched corruption and massive overbuilding.

For example, famed short-seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates has been warning of a real estate bubble in China since 2009 and has been betting against Chinese banks.

China's stock market has been feeding much of the broader investor skepticism. The Shanghai stock exchange composite index has fallen more than 40 per cent since 2009 and is no higher today that it was six years ago. Investors have been pulling money out of Chinese equity funds at a brisk pace, suggesting that small investors are losing patience.

But now, China is even starting to weigh on the optimists.

"Over the past year, we've written that Chinese growth was more stable than the market believed," said strategists at Pavilion Global Markets, in a note. "Over the past several months, however, we've grown increasingly concerned that the housing pillar is becoming shakier."

The strategists contend that China's property market is much more difficult to manage than many of the country's other financial challenges. Price increases within leading cities are slowing, which suggests that property growth has peaked. Among less-developed cities, prices are rising at an even slower pace.

Things could get worse: Sales volume has fallen 19 per cent over last year and "floor space" construction has fallen 23 per cent, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"To be clear, our view is not that this is China's property bubble day of reckoning and that prices will never accelerate again," the Pavilion strategists said. "Rather, we feel we have reached a downturn in this highly cyclical property market."

That raises two big concerns.

First, the property market has deep ties to China's financial sector - local governments rely upon property to repay debt and the banks accept it as collateral - which means that a sharp downturn will raise the chances of wider financial instability.

Policy makers can help alleviate the situation, but their choices aren't good ones. Broad support will hurt the credibility of recent financial reforms, while supporting only the more important financial institutions will make any rescue look disorderly.

Second, the Pavilion strategists believe that a property market downturn will affect China's broader economic growth. That's because 13 per cent of urban workers are employed in the construction sector and urban residential investment accounts for nearly 12 per cent of China's gross domestic product.

"One of the pillars of our view over the year has been that property was still growing strongly and that it would help stabilize growth," the strategists said. "A downturn in property changes that tailwind into a headwind."
OldNick
29.05.2014 08:21
#15761

Endre
JP Morgan - skeptisk til China og eiendomsmarkedet.


Asia i dag: Peker på største makrorisiko i Kina

Morten Iversen, DN.no
28.05.2014

Den svakere utviklingen på det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet utgjør den største makrorisikoen for den kinesiske økonomien, mener JP Morgan. En eiendomsmagnat sammenligner markedet som Titanic på vei mot isberget.

Amerikansk bekymring

Den amerikanske finansinstitusjonen JP Morgan satt et team økonomer og analytikere til å vurdere den kinesiske økonomien. De er bekymret over hva de ser.

«En justering i boligmarkedet kan utgjøre den største makrorisikoen i Kina de neste kvartalene. Dette skyldes hovedsakelig en svekkelse i eiendomsinvesteringer og en nedgang i inntektene fra tomtesalg», skriver analytikerne i en ny rapport.

Alle finansinstitusjoner, som følger Kina, frykter at et prisfall i eiendomsmarkedet kan få alvorlige konsekvenser for den kinesiske økonomien. Disse advarslene har kommet i mange år, men uten at dette har utløst en panikk.

Ifølge JP Morgans beregninger vil en fem prosent svekkelse i nye eiendomsinvesteringer redusere den økonomiske veksten med 0,6 prosentpoeng. De har liten tro på at eiendomsmarkedet står foran en kollaps.

JP Morgan deler det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet inn i tre grupper - basert på størrelsen på byene. I storbyer som Shanghai og Beijing tror de prisene vil øke det neste året med rundt fem prosent. Det er i provinsbyene det er alvorligst.

Den amerikanske finansinstitusjonen utelukker ikke at prisene vil falle med ti prosent i noen av disse byene, men mener at dette ikke vil spre seg til bankene og finanssektoren, slik blant annet styreformannen i Soho China advarte mot.

«Det kinesiske finanssystemet er mindre utsatt for eiendomsmarkedet enn hva de fleste tror. Årsaken er at finansproduktene er ganske enkle. Hvis eiendomsprisene kollapser vil dette først og fremst svekke den økonomiske veksten og ikke påføre finanssystemet problemer», skriver JP Morgan-analytikerne.

Storhetsperioden over

Prisstatistikkene for april viser at det er prisfall i eiendomsmarkedet i en rekke provinsbyer. Rundt ti millioner boligenheter, i hovedsak leiligheter, som står tomme. Nyinvesteringene har falt kraftig i 2014 og dette forventes å fortsette de neste kvartalene.

Konsernsjef Yu Liang i eiendomsselskapet Vanke sa denne uken at den gylne storhetsperioden for det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet er over.

- Nå er det den hvite sølvperioden som innledes. Bransjen jakter på kvalitet og reell etterspørsel. Eiendomsmarkedet var verdt 8100 milliarder yuan (7900 milliarder kroner) i fjor og vokser fortsatt. Det er fortsatt stort nok for oss, sa Yu Liang i den kinesiske byen Dongguan igår, som mente det ikke er en boble i eiendomsmarkedet.

- Rett inn i et isberg

Pan Shiyi er styreformann for et av Kinas største eiendomsselskap. Under en lukket konferanse advarte han om at situasjonen i det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet er svært alvorlig.

- Jeg mener det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet er som Titanic. Snart vil det seile rett inn i et isberg. Etter kollisjonen vil det ikke bare være eiendomsmarkedet som står i fare for å synke, men også finanssektoren, sa han under et seminar, ifølge China Business News.

Før styreformannen for Soho China kom med de kritiske kommentarene spurte han om det var journalister i forsamlingen. Journalister som var tilstede gav seg ikke til kjenne.

Han fortsatte med svært åpenhjertige og kritiske bemerkninger om det kinesiske eiendomsmarkedet.

- Først når prisene synker med 20 til 30 prosent vil disse problemene komme frem til overflaten. Avanserte spare- og låneprodukter i finanssektoren er eksponert mot eiendomssektoren på en uoversiktlig måte. Dette er farlig og utgjør en betydelig risiko, sa Pan Shiyi.

Sammen med sin kone var blant de første til å bygge luksuseiendommer for den

Endret 29.05.2014 08:22 av OldNick
OldNick
02.06.2014 05:29
#15786

Endre
Om dete er realiteten, er det kun et spørsmål om tid før China får en politisk omveltning.

Vil "det økonomiske mirakelet" gå med i dragsuget?

Kinas suksess kan koste regimet dyrt

Verden lar seg fascinere av Kinas utrolige forvandling de siste 25 årene. Men kommunistpartiets eliter lar seg bare motivere av personlig vinning


Aftenposten kommentar Minxin Pei, professor ved Claremont McKenna College i California
31 mai, 2014

Mange kan la seg friste til å beundre kommunistpartiets motstandskraft. Partiet var i nærheten av å kollapse, men gikk likevel videre til å styre over den største økonomiske boomen i verdenshistorien.

Et spørsmål få stiller, er hvordan partiet selv er blitt forandret. Den vanlige oppfatningen er at partiet dyktig har tilpasset seg utfordringene etter 1989.

Fire pilarer

Partiets overlevelsesstrategi er tuftet på fire pilarer, robust vekst, sofistikert undertrykkelse, statsstøttet nasjonalisme og å ta opp i seg sosiale eliter.

Partiets hell med å holde på makten har gitt næring til en populær teori om «autoritær motstandsdyktighet». Den forsøker å forklare overlevelsen av en ettpartistat som i kjølvannet av hendelsene på Den himmelske freds plass, så ut som et nederlagsdømt regime. Dette synet har noen holdepunkter.

Perioden etter 1989 har vært gyllen for kommunistpartiet. Men teoriens tilhengere har oversett én kritisk faktor: Forfallet i partiet som en styrende institusjon. I dag er det umulig å overse bevisene for korrupsjonen som har spredd seg gjennom hele partiet (og dermed staten).

Fritt frem

Forråtnelsens kilde ligger, ironisk nok, i den suksessen partiet har hatt med å oppnå to sentrale mål, nemlig økonomisk vekst og undertrykkelse av demokratiske krefter.

25 år med sterk økonomisk vekst har skapt enorm velstand, en velstand som inviterer de styrende elitene til plyndring. Samtidig har partiets undertrykkelse av opposisjonen og det sivile samfunn skapt et ideelt klima, der det kan plyndres uten tilbakeholdenhet.

Sjokkerende historier

Endemisk korrupsjon er det mest synlige tegnet på regimets forfall. Vi har hørt sjokkerende historier om tyveri og lovløshet som involverer høytstående medlemmer av kommunistpartiet, som Bo Xilai, den tidligere partisjefen i Chongqing. Man kan argumentere for at kleptokratiet har slått rot i Kina.

Organisasjonsmessig har medlemmene av dette kleptokratiet privatisert partistatens makt og skapt beskyttende nettverk basert på personlig lojalitet og utveksling av tjenester. Ifølge rapporter i mediene gjennomsyrer slike nettverk nå Kinas politiske system og landets økonomi.

Familievelde

I den økonomiske verdenen dominerer mektige politikere, deres familier og businesspartnere - kjent som «familier» - lukrative sektorer som eiendom, energi, telekommunikasjon og natur- ressurser.

Statseide selskaper er degenerert til mekanismer for familiene, som kan tuske til seg, enten gratis eller svært billig, eiendeler som på papiret tilhører det kinesiske folk. Dette kleptokratiet etter 1989 har skadet det folket. Men også kommunistpartiet lider under tyvenes herjinger.

Egoismen rår

Privatiseringen av statens makt og berøvelsen av partiets autoritet til fordel for beskyttelsesnettverk undergraver partiets integritet. Partiets eliter er blitt så gjennomgående kyniske og egoistiske at de bare lar seg motivere av personlig vinning, ikke partiets interesser eller langsiktige tilstand.

Den underliggende dynamikken inviterer til sammenligning med «allmenningens tragedie». Enhver som går inn i partiet og klatrer i hierarkiet, kan vente seg en del av gevinstene. Slike lukrative goder og muligheter for berikelse frister de opportunistiske elementene i det kinesiske samfunnet. Den vanlige tilnærmingen er å oppsøke en beskytter og velgjører.

Endret 02.06.2014 05:30 av OldNick
OldNick
02.06.2014 05:33
#15787

Endre
Tyver med hastverk

Langt fra å være motivert av partiets nå bankerotte maoistideologi, forsøker slike individer å maksimere avkastningen på sine politiske investeringer så fort som overhodet mulig.

Likevel, med gjeld utelukkende til sine beskyttere, har disse personene liten lojalitet til partiet.

Intellektuelt kan det være at de forstår at partiets langsiktige overlevelse som Kinas sentrale politiske kraft krever at de følger partiets regler og implementerer politikken.

De vet at partiet trenger at de holder seg til simpelt tyveri fremfor regelrett plyndring. Men i den virkelige verden er slike pragmatiske sjeler altfor bevisste på at festen snart kan være over. Alle rundt dem er opptatt med å stjele. Tenker de seg om to ganger før de casher inn, risikerer de å bli seende ut som idioter.

Siden 1989 har slik dynamikk - og to generasjoner med opportunister som har kolonisert det kinesiske regimet - forvandlet det en gang så mektige kommunistpartiet til et hult kjempeuhyre.

Kort etter utnevnelsen til ny partisjef i 2012 klaget Xi Jinping over at ikke et eneste partimedlem rykket ut til forsvar for det gamle regimet da Sovjetunionen kollapset.

Det er umulig å vite hva han hadde i tankene. Alt vi kan gjette på, er at Xi Jinping etter å ha sett forråtnelsen internt i kommunistpartiet, frykter for at partiet kanskje ikke vil overleve et nytt Himmelske freds plass.

Denne kommentaren har stått på trykk i Financial Times.
OldNick
03.11.2014 14:03
#16271

Endre
AP Survey: China Slowdown To Bruise Global Economy

Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer
Nov. 2, 2014

Washington - China's roaring economy for years has pulled much of the rest of the world with it, soaking up oil, iron ore and other commodities from developing countries and autos and luxury goods from Europe.

But its role as a global engine is fading as its economy slows - and many other nations, in the view of economists, will feel the pain. An Associated Press survey of 30 economists has found that 57 percent of them expect China's decelerating economy to restrain growth in countries from Brazil and Chile to Australia and South Korea.

A notable exception is the United States, which the economists see as largely insulated from China's troubles.

China's once-explosive growth has slowed in part because of its government's efforts to restrain its speculative real estate sector and shift its economy toward consumer spending. China's economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, its slowest pace since 2009. A growth rate above 7 percent would be the envy of most major economies. But for China, it marked a sharp slowdown after three decades of double-digit expansion.

Last week, the Conference Board, a business group, forecast that China's growth would slump to 4 percent by 2020.

China's deceleration is rippling around the world. Brazil and Australia are selling it less iron ore, a key ingredient in steel, as China's construction boom slows. Chile is exporting less copper to China. Indonesia is selling it less oil and lumber.

And South Korea's electronics exports have faltered, hampering its growth, as Chinese consumers buy fewer smartphones or choose cheaper domestic alternatives.

China is also cracking down on corruption, which threatens European designer brands. Sung Won Sohn, an economist at California State University's Smith School of Business, estimates that one-third of luxury Swiss watches are exported to China. In addition, China is the fastest-growing market for Mercedes-Benz and BMW.

U.S. automakers, particularly General Motors, also sell lots of cars in China. But nearly all are built in China and don't contribute much to the U.S. economy, Sohn said. That's true of many other U.S. goods sold in China, including electronics. As a result, weaker sales in China wouldn't much hurt the United States. Capital Economics, a forecasting firm, calculates that only 6.5 percent of U.S. exports go to China - equal to just 0.9 percent of the U.S. economy.

"It's hard to see a slowdown in China having a really significant impact on the U.S. economy, barring a complete collapse," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

The AP surveyed a range of corporate, Wall Street and academic economists from Oct. 24 through 29. Among their other views:

- If Republicans wrest control of the Senate from Democrats in Tuesday's elections, it would probably cause political gridlock but would have little effect on the U.S. economy. A few economists said such an election result might lead to tax reforms that would boost long-term growth.

- Retail sales will pick up during this holiday shopping season. The economists think sales will rise 4.1 percent from a year ago, up from 3.8 percent in 2013. Lower gas prices and greater hiring should boost Americans' spending power.

- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has done a better job than her counterpart at the European Central Bank, President Mario Draghi. The economists gave Yellen an average score of 3.8 on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 the best and 1 the worst. Draghi earned 3.2. Most economists say they wish the ECB would take bolder steps to spur growth in the 18-nation eurozone, which may be on the brink of its third recession in seven years.

Endret 03.11.2014 14:03 av OldNick
OldNick
03.11.2014 14:03
#16272

Endre
Most of surveyed economists think the U.S. economy can expand at a respectable annual rate of 2.5 percent to 3 percent through next year even if Europe, Japan and China stumble.

On Friday, Japan's central bank unexpectedly intensified its stimulus efforts to try to invigorate its chronically anemic economy. The Bank of Japan will buy more government bonds and other assets lift inflation and spur more spending. That announcement helped lift financial markets around the world.

Oil prices have fallen more than 25 percent since summer, partly because China is using less of it and thereby reducing global demand for oil. With demand slowing, the national average price of gasoline in the United States fell 33 cents in October to $3.00 even, according to AAA. The average dipped below $3 this weekend for the first time in four years.

Robert Johnson, an economist at Morningstar, an investing service, noted that the United States has been recovering steadily from the Great Recession even as China's economy has weakened. China was growing at a double-digit pace in 2010, when the U.S. was still struggling to escape the recession. Now, the U.S. economy has expanded at a 4 percent annual pace over the past six months.

Still, if China's growth does slow significantly, eventually it could diminish growth in the United States.

"China is such a big market," Sohn said. "Sooner or later, we will feel the impact."
OldNick
24.12.2014 19:41
#16428

Endre
Den nye presidenten Xi Jinping har programfestet å rense opp i korrupsjonen i parti-apparat.

Her er et eksempel på hva de finner av eksempler, rapportert av Reuters.

Special Report: Depleted oil field is window into China's corruption crackdown

Charlie Zhu, David Lague, Fergus Jensen, Reuters
Dec. 19, 2014

Limau, Indonesia - In a muddy clearing in southern Sumatra, a portable diesel power plant hammers away alongside a wellhead, struggling to extract crude from a depleted reservoir that lies below farmland and rubber plantations.

It was much easier to extract cash from a state-owned Chinese oil giant.

A subsidiary of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), PetroChina Daqing Oilfield, paid $85 million to pump from three blocks in the ageing Limau field under a 2013 contract with Indonesia's state-owned oil company, Pertamina, according to senior Chinese oil industry officials with knowledge of the transaction.

Today, the three Limau blocks squeeze out less than three percent of the oil pumped when output peaked in the 1960s. When PetroChina Daqing announced the deal, it didn't disclose the seller, the price or any other financial details.

"We all know it is a ridiculous investment, but I have no idea where the money has actually ended up," says a senior Chinese oil industry official who has seen budget figures for the Limau wells.

The management at CNPC is now investigating the deal as part of a sweeping crackdown on official graft by Chinese President Xi Jinping that has destroyed a powerful political rival who once ran the oil giant - Zhou Yongkang. The anti-corruption campaign is cutting a swathe through the senior management ranks at CNPC, with at least a dozen former top managers under arrest.

There is vast scope for corruption inside the CNPC empire, which includes its huge listed subsidiary PetroChina Company Ltd and hundreds of other units, say company officials familiar with the investigation. The group is one of the world's biggest corporations, last year reporting revenues of $432 billion. Current and former senior company officials say it is difficult to keep track of all the businesses and deals underway.

`THIS IS CRAZY'

Indonesia's anti-graft watchdog told Reuters last month that it plans to probe the country's oil sector. Satoto Agustono, director of development at Pertamina EP, a unit of Pertamina, said he had no knowledge of the price of the Limau deal but said oil companies sometimes paid top dollar for risky investments.

"The oil and gas business is really crazy," he said. "We do not know why they want to buy at high prices when production is low. But, some people, they buy it. This is crazy."

Chinese oil industry officials say they have identified two other suspect deals in Indonesia in which the CNPC group paid a combined $350 million to buy assets from little-known private companies. "Basically, they are worthless," says the same oil industry official who has seen the budgeting figures for the Limau deal. "It has caused heavy losses for the state."

CNPC chairman Zhou Jiping told an internal meeting in August that the company would "actively explore" new ways of conducting investigations in its overseas operations as part of its crackdown on corruption, the company said in a statement on its website. A CNPC group spokesman in Beijing declined to answer questions from Reuters about the suspect deals.

The story of the Limau transaction provides a window into the mechanics of what Chinese oil industry officials say is one suspect deal.

Endret 24.12.2014 19:43 av OldNick
OldNick
24.12.2014 19:41
#16429

Endre
Interviews with CNPC officials, searches of company filings and documents related to the agreement reviewed by Reuters show PetroChina Daqing paid for control of a shell company registered in a tax haven, the British Virgin Islands (BVI). This transaction allowed PetroChina Daqing to take over the operation of the three Limau blocks.

Only a trickle of oil has been pumped since the deal was announced in March 2013, according to Chinese and Indonesian oil industry officials with knowledge of the field.

TARGETTING ZHOU

The probes into the Indonesian deals are part of a much wider corruption investigation in China that has sparked the biggest political upheaval since the 1989 Tiananmen protests.

Zhou Yongkang, born in 1942, was a member of China's elite Politburo Standing Committee until his retirement in 2012. A former head of China's feared internal security apparatus, he is now almost certain to become the most senior leader to be prosecuted since the 1981 trial of the Gang of Four, driving figures behind the Cultural Revolution.

On December 6, the official Xinhua News Agency said Zhou had been expelled from the ruling Communist Party. The statement accused him of corruption and leaking state secrets. Zhou's case has been handed to judicial authorities, it said - terminology that usually means criminal charges will follow. It is not known if he has a lawyer.

Zhou built an extensive power base at CNPC as he rose to the top of the oil giant in the 1990s. At least 11 other former top CNPC group officials are under arrest. Two - former CNPC vice president Wang Yongchun and the former head of the group's Indonesian operations, Wei Zhigang - were involved in assessing the Limau investment, according to Chinese oil industry officials. Wang Yongchun was also president of PetroChina Daqing Oilfield.

"The investigations into Wang and Wei are linked to but not limited to the Limau acquisition," said one of the Chinese oil industry officials.

Two months before he was arrested in August last year, Wang said the company was keen to expand in Indonesia, according to the company's website. Wang was quoted hailing the Limau deal as an example of deepening cooperation.

In a November 28 report, the Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's Daily newspaper, confirmed that graft busters were probing Zhou's network in the petroleum industry. It was the first official acknowledgement the CNPC arrests were tied to him.

CNPC has disowned Zhou. "We will never provide shelter for corrupt elements," the company pledged in a statement coinciding with the news of his arrest.

Under former CNPC head Jiang Jiemin, who was arrested last year, the group launched a headlong spending splurge, heeding a political command to secure more offshore oil reserves. In the five years to 2013, the company spent $25 billion on overseas assets and $241 billion on capital expenditure.

Investigators are now scrutinizing the group's domestic and offshore spending on oilfields, oil service contracts and equipment supply deals.

Jiang and Wang Yongchun have been expelled from the party and are under investigation for "taking huge bribes," according to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). Calls to the Beijing numbers for the CCDI spokesman on the agency's website were not answered.

As is routine in Chinese corruption cases, Jiang, Wang and Wei couldn't be reached for comment nor could their lawyers be identified.

SHELL COMPANIES

Indonesia has been a key target for the CNPC group's expansion plans. Once self sufficient in oil, output in the Southeast Asian nation has declined since its 1995 peak. Jakarta has been anxious to attract foreign investment to arrest falling production.

Endret 24.12.2014 19:41 av OldNick
OldNick
24.12.2014 19:42
#16430

Endre
Some of CNPC's early investments in Indonesia, made when oil prices were lower, have paid off. Its listed unit, PetroChina, bought the Indonesian assets of U.S. oil producer Devon Energy Corp in 2002. CNPC was the country's seventh-ranked producer in 2011 with 3,500 employees and an annual output of about 40 million barrels.

The Limau deal was a departure from PetroChina Daqing Oilfield's normal business model. The oil services company hailed the 2013 agreement as its first "technology-for-resources" deal, having traditionally relied on fees for its income. In this deal, it would trade its expertise in extracting oil from mature fields in return for a share of any increased output, it said in a statement.

In a subsequent statement in June last year, the company said it had completed an "equity acquisition related to the Limau project," without disclosing the seller or the price.

Interviews with Chinese oil industry officials and documents related to the transaction show PetroChina Daqing actually bought Vision Horizon Holdings Ltd., a company registered in the British Virgin Islands. A company search shows that Vision Horizon was registered in May 2009. BVI companies are not required to disclose directors and shareholders.

Through other shell companies registered in the tax haven, Vision Horizon is linked to BVI-registered Indospec Energy Limau, the company that holds a joint operating contract for the three Limau blocks. In an interview with Reuters in his Jakarta office, the chief executive of Indospec Energy Limau, Indra Wijaya, confirmed that the company had won the contract from Pertamina through a tender.

A draft of the 91-page contract reviewed by Reuters shows that Indospec Energy Limau is scheduled to invest another $50 million in the first three years of a 20-year operating agreement.

Wijaya, who said he had earlier worked for Pertamina for more than 20 years, confirmed that Vision Horizon was involved in the Limau deal but declined to provide details. Wijaya also declined to discuss PetroChina's $85 million payment. "This is about our business," he said. "I am not going to give any answer."

UNLIKELY TO MEET TARGET

Like many of Indonesia's mature oilfields, Limau has been in decline since it peaked in the 1960s. The field covers more than 200 square kilometers of forest and farmland, including patches of rubber and palm oil plantation, in South Sumatra Province.

In a 2013 technical paper, Wijaya and two Pertamina experts advocated using advanced recovery methods to boost output. They reported that production from the three blocks had peaked at 46,000 barrels a day in 1960. A report by Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, showed that by the 1990s, water injection and other recovery methods were needed to keep the field pumping.

A company that earlier operated Limau, Hong Kong-listed South Sea Petroleum Holdings Ltd, said in a stock exchange filing that output for the entire field in 2007 was about 7,000 barrels a day. The combined output from the three blocks is now about 1,200 barrels a day, according to Pertamina's Agustono.

In its 2013 statement announcing the deal, PetroChina Daqing said it aimed to boost production of the three Limau blocks to about 7,300 barrels a day. Upstream industry experts familiar with the Limau field say it is highly unlikely that PetroChina will ever meet this target.
highlander
13.01.2015 09:30
#3682

Endre
China 2014 trade surplus rockets to record high

...og enda bedre vil det gå for verdens nest største økonomi pga den lave oljeprisen...
highlander
20.01.2015 08:51
#3757

Endre
Kina, verdens nest største økonomi, vokste med 7,3 prosent i det siste kvartalet i 2014, sammenlignet med tilsvarende kvartal året før.

Det viser tall fra Kinas nasjonale statistikkbyrå.

Veksten er dermed den samme som i det foregående kvartalet. På forhånd var det ifølge Bloomberg ventet hakket lavere vekst på 7,2 prosent.

For hele 2014 var Kinas økonomiske vekst på 7,4 prosent, på linje med myndighetenes vekstmål på 7,5 prosent, men den svakeste veksten siden 1990.

Samtidig viser nye tall at veksten i Kinas industriproduksjonen steg til 7,9 prosent på årsbasis i desember fra 7,2 prosent måneden før.

I samme periode økte veksten i detaljhandelen til 11,9 prosent fra 11,7 prosent.
Graastein
21.01.2015 22:15
#626

Endre
Nedenfor finner dere linken til professor Michael Pettis blogg. Det er rent gull.

http://blog.mpettis.com

Jeg vet Ikke om noen som er bedre på Kina.

Endret 21.01.2015 22:18 av Graastein
Graastein
21.01.2015 22:24
#627

Endre
Jeg har også meget sans for hans generelle makrobetraktninger.
highlander
21.01.2015 22:41
#3790

Endre
Tusen takk for tipset, Graastein. Mye interessant lesning på den siden. Jeg har nå lagt Michael Pettis' blogg til blant mine favoritter.
highlander
15.04.2015 12:15
#4202

Endre
Kina bremser ned:

Svakeste vekst siden 2009 i verdens nest største økonomi...

Et knippe nye nøkkeltall fra Kina viser at verdens nest største økonomi saktner farten.

Ifølge statistikk fra det nasjonale statistikkbyrået vokste Kinas økonomi med 7 prosent i årets tre første måneder, ned fra veksten på 7,3 prosent i det foregående kvartalet.

Det er på linje med forventningene i en undersøkelse utført av Bloomberg, men den tregeste veksten siden 2009.

BNP-veksten er også på linje med myndighetenes mål for hele året.

- Risikoen ligger da på nedsiden, ettersom den faktiske veksten allerede har bremset ned til nettopp 7,0 prosent, samtidig som utviklingen gjennom første kvartal indikerer en videre avmatning inn mot andre kvartal, skriver Handelsbanken i en morgenrapport.

Der vises det til at Kina frykter spesielt konsekvensene av den lavere veksten på arbeidsmarkedet.

- Dette begynner å bli et meget aktuelt tema nå som veksten er på vei til å falle klart under 7 prosent. Derfor ventes det nå at myndighetene vil komme på banen med ytterligere ekspansive tiltak. Trolig vil dette dreie seg om en kombinasjon av ulike tiltak, hvor myndighetene kan velge blant videre rentekutt, kutt i bankenes reservekrav, samt målrettede finanspolitiske stimulanser.

Mer skuffende er tallene for industriproduksjonen. Mens det var ventet en oppgang på 7 prosent i mars fra mars i fjor, viser fasiten en lavere oppgang på 5,6 prosent.

Veksten i detaljomsetningen for samme måned falt til 10,2 prosent. Også veksten i investeringene bremser.
highlander
27.05.2015 08:39
#4427

Endre
- Boblelignende kinesisk aksjemarked

Aksjene i Shanghai er fortsatt opp mer enn 50 prosent i år. I en morgenrapport påpeker DNB Markets at «Shenzhenbørsen, som er noe mer en noe mer teknologi- og SME-orientert børs enn Shanghai, har nå steget med mer enn 100 prosent i 2015».

- Oppgangen i Shenzhen og Shanghai har vært drevet av en kombinasjon av markedsliberalisering, som større tilgang på marginhandler og bedre kapitalflyt mellom Kina og Hong Kong, mer likviditet gjennom sentralbankens reservekravkutt, skriver DNB Markets-økonom Ole André Kjennerud i en morgenrapport.

- I tillegg har det blitt fullstendig stopp i gråmarkedet. Dette har naturlig nok hatt en innstrammende effekt på BNP, men pengene som ellers ville ha gått i gråmarkedet - som hovedsakelig er husholdningers sparepenger - har i stedet strømmet inn i det boblelignende kinesiske aksjemarkedet, der omsetningsvolumet har økt med tregangeren det siste året, fortsetter Kjennerud.

Han mener utviklingen ikke er bærekraftig.

- Prisingen er ett problem, men det er enda mer urovekkende at vi får dette samtidig med at Kinas økonomi viser såpass mange svakhetstegn. Veksten bremser opp, og i deler av økonomien er det fall, skriver Kjennerud.
Graastein
27.05.2015 23:25
#636

Endre
Så nylig, husker ikke hvor, at snitt PE skulle ligge på rundt 60 for selskapene på Shanghai børsen. Alt ligger dermed til rette for et krakk, men som kjent, jo større boble, jo lenger tid tar det før den sprekker.

Selv har jeg lenge hatt tro på at Kina vil ha lavere vekst enn konsensus og, til dels, latt den vurderingen styre investeringsvalgene, dermed har det blitt lite av råvarerrelaterte selskaper i porteføljen.



andy30
03.06.2015 03:14
#727

Endre
Men har du ikke mer tro på Kina nå?
Graastein
03.06.2015 23:32
#639

Endre
Nei - Jeg tror Kina kommer til å fortsette og skuffe.

Veksten de siste årene har vært, til dels, drevet av store investeringer i infrastruktur og eiendom, samt at samfunnet har utviklet seg fra et jordbruk- til et industrisamfunn. For tredve år siden jobbet de fleste kinesere i jordbruket og bodde på landet. Nå bor i alle fall de fleste unge i byer og har en jobb som ikke er knyttet til landbruk.

Når folk urbaniseres og begynner å jobbe i industrien, skjer det en voldsom økning i produktiviteten og dette gir seg utslag i økt vekst og velstand. Kina har også, frem til nå, nytt godt av en teknologiutvikling som andre land har tatt kostnadene ved.

Jeg tror en sentralistisk ettpartistat, som Kina er, har hatt gode forutsetninger for å kunne drive gjennom en slik utvikling av samfunnet. I en dominerende og sentralistisk stat kan myndighetene kanalisere store ressurser målrettet til områder der investeringene kaster mye av seg, som veier, flyplasser, utdanning og bygging av infrastruktur i forbindelse med urbanisering. Andre sentralistiske samfunn, som Sovjet, hadde også mange år med voldsom vekst når landet gikk fra bondesamfunn til industrisamfunn.

Når et land har kommet opp på et visst økonomisk nivå vil økonomien vris mot næringer som krever innovasjon, selvstendighet og kreativitet. Jeg tror det er vanskligere å utvikle denne type næringer i autoritære samfunn. Det er ikke det at jeg ikke tror kreativitet og inovasjon ikke også kan skje i ikke-demokratiske land, men det skjer i mindre grad og denne type næringer vil slite med å hevde seg i konkurransen. Hvor mange merkenavn som forbindes med status har vi hørt om som er kinesiske? Ikke mange.

Selv om det finnes mange demokratiske samfunn som ikke er rike, kan jeg ikke komme på et eneste land som har en autoritær styreform og som også har høy levestandard. Her gjør jeg unntak for råvareprodusenter (oljerike sjeikedømmer). Jeg tror Kina aldri vil komme tilbake til en tosifret vekst og jeg tror veksten vil komme ned til under fire prosent i løpet av dette tiåret, kanskje også lavere.

Endret 03.06.2015 23:44 av Graastein
Graastein
03.06.2015 23:44
#640

Endre
Stimulipakker fra myndighetene, som skal få fart på økonomien vil sikkert kunne føre til perioder med økt vekst. Jeg tror imidlertid dette vil være blaff. Kina kommer aldri opp på vestlig nivå, uten først å gjennomføre en rekke vansklige reformer.
blåball
04.06.2015 08:34
#1718

Endre
En skal ikke undervurdere KINA som økonomisk stormakt , en årilg vekst på rundt 7 % er formidabelt.
Nye innfrastruktur prosjekter i KINA og ASIA danner en ny " Silkevei" , men marginhandel på Shanghai Børsen er vel drøy for tiden .

Hong Kong Børsen er mer "edrulig" priset.
OldNick
21.06.2015 18:12
#16975

Endre
Kinesiske aksjer har i vår gått bedre enn de fleste andre børser.

Er det blåst opp en boble?

Svakeste uke på syv år for kinesiske aksjer

Det brennhete kinesiske aksjemarkedet bråstoppet denne uken. Er en boble i ferd med å sprekke?


Anders Park Framstad, E24.no
19.06.2015

Etter å ha gått som bare juling i store deler av 2015, har børsen i Shanghai denne uken falt mer enn 13 prosent. Dette er dermed den svakeste uken for kinesiske aksjer siden 2008, ifølge nyhetsbyrået Reuters.

Fredag alene bragte med seg en solid nedtur på 6,42 prosent, etter flere nynoteringer og meldinger om at de kinesiske myndighetene strammer til regelverket for marginhandel.

Shanghai-børsen er imidlertid fortsatt opp over 33 prosent så langt i år. Forholdet mellom pris og forventet inntjening de nesten 12 månedene på Shanghai SE Composite-indeksen er hele 41. Til sammenligning er tilsvarende nøkkeltall for Oslo børs 13,18 og Dow Jones 16,52.

Følger med på bobletendenser

Den bratte børsoppturen har ført til spekulasjoner om det finnes en boble i kinesiske aksjer.

Senior porteføljeforvalter Olav Chen i Storebrand påpeker imidlertid at børsoppgangen ser ut til å ha vært i tråd med ønskene til myndighetene i Beijing.

Det er absolutt grunn til å følge med på mulige bobletendenser, men jeg tror dette er noe villet fra myndighetenes side, sier Chen til E24.

Han minner om at det så sent som i fjor var knyttet stor usikkerhet til boligmarkedet i Kina og landets såkalte skyggebankmarked, og mener at myndighetene har tatt grep for å kanalisere folks sparepenger til andre investeringer.

Kombinert med lavere renter utgjør dette bakteppet for den solide oppgangen i aksjemarkedet i første halvdel av 2015.

Det som har bekymret meg, har vært at deler av oppgangen har vært lånefinansiert. Men det er nettopp dette kinesiske myndigheter har tatt tak i i dag, og innført strengere regler for lånefinansierte aksjekjøp, sier Chen.

Fredag skriver Financial Times at de kinesiske myndighetene er i ferd med å stramme inn regelverket rundt lånefinansierte aksjekjøp, såkalt marginhandel. I et utkast legges det opp til at landets finansinstitusjoner skal måtte begrense denne typen utlån til fire ganger egenkapitalen.

Åpner markedet

Chen tviler på at den videre markedsutviklingen i Kina vil bli like eksplosiv som i første halvår, men tror likevel at det er for tidlig å trekke seg ut av kinesiske aksjer eller spekulere i en dypere nedgang.

Det er nok litt tidlig fortsatt. Kongstanken til de kinesiske myndighetene er å åpne landets kapitalmarkeder for omverdenen.

Chen trekker frem at store leverandører som FTSE Group er i ferd med å hente inn kinesiske aksjer i sine indekser. Dette vil kunne gi en nærmest mekanisk effekt, da det er mange større, internasjonale fond som følger disse (deriblant det norske oljefondet).

FTSE besluttet nylig å ta opp kinesiske a-aksjer i sin verdensindeks, og utenlandske investorer er fortsatt underinvestert i Kina, sier den norske forvalteren.

Chen kom for få uker siden tilbake fra en rundreise i Asia, der han besøkte børsene i Shanghai, Hongkong og Tokyo. Hans inntrykk etter besøket er ikke at «kinesere flest» - enkelte av dem med begrenset grunnlag for sine investeringer - har gått hals over hode, slik det har blitt antydet i internasjonale medier.

Men alt i Kina blir stort. Selvfølgelig er det folk uten tilstrekkelige kunnskaper som prøver seg i markedet, men dette finnes overalt. Og jeg tror ikke at den prosentvise andelen av befolkningen er større i Kina enn
OldNick
23.06.2015 12:22
#16984

Endre
andre steder, sier Chen.
______

Shanghai-børsen kan få en skikkelig smell

Shanghai Composite falt på det meste 17,6 prosent, før det snudde opp igjen tirsdag


Stein Ove Haugen, Hegnar.no
23.06.2015

Shanghai Composite har stupt de siste to ukene, men steg 2,2 prosent tirsdag og berget med det foreløpig den stigende hovedtrenden.

På det meste var den viktige indeksen ned 17,6 prosent fra toppen intradag den 12. juni, på 5.178,19. Etter tirsdagens oppgang er nedgangen på 11,6 prosent.

Tirsdag steg Shanghai Composite tilbake til sitt 50-dagers glidende gjennomsnitt, men det er ennå for tidlig å slå fast at faren er over.

Indeksen kan være i ferd med å utvikle en større hode-skulder formasjon, som kan signalisere fall til 3.600, 3.400 og kanskje 3.000. I så fall kan Shanghai Composite stå foran et fall fra toppen på henholdsvis 30-, 34- og kanskje hele 42 prosent.

RSI ligger under 50-nivået og det chartet signaliserer at stigningstakten er på vei ned.

Faren for en kraftig nedtur vil ikke være over før den fallende trenden i RSI-chartet blir brutt og indeksen bryter tilbake over 5.000-nivået på stigende omsetning.

highlander
26.06.2015 09:53
#4582

Endre
Er tidenes bullmarked historie i Kina? Panikken sprer seg, og Shanghai-børsen stuper fredag, skriver HO med henvinsing til Bloomberg. Large cap-indeksen CSI 300 og Shanghai Composite faller hhv. 6,3 og 6 prosent. Mer enn 21 aksjer faller for hver aksje som stiger.

Frykten går ifølge Bloomberg på at tidenes bullmarked i Kina har toppet ut. Teknologi og mindre selskaper fører an i fredagens nedtur. Spekulanter frigjør nå sine lånefinansierte posisjoner, mens et voksende antall analytikere advarer om at verdsettelsene har kommet for høyt.

Morgan Stanley anbefaler ifølge nyhetsbyrået fredag sine kunder til å holde seg unna aksjer på det kinesiske fastlandet, med henvisning til at 12. juni trolig var toppen av bullmarkedet. - Denne dippen er sannsynligvis ikke en kjøpsmulighet, skriver strateg for Asia og emerging markets, Jonathan Garner, hos Morgan Stanley i Hong Kong.
OldNick
26.06.2015 10:15
#17000

Endre
DN hadde (nok) en fin artikkel om China og deres utfordringer for 2 dager siden.

Nå må alle forberede seg på Kina-sjokk

Morten Iversen, DN.no
24.06.2015

Den svakere veksten i Kina skaper nervøsitet over hele verden. Råvareleverandører er allerede hardt rammet. Nå er det industrilandene som vil få merke Kina-sjokket mest fremover.

Råvareleverandører som Australia, Brasil og Indonesia har merket den svakere etterspørselen fra Kina siden 2013. Byggevirksomheten i nye infrastrukturprosjekter er lavere og dette har ført til mindre etterspørsel etter blant annet australsk jernmalm enn forventet.

Storbanken UBS har analysert hvordan endringene i den kinesiske økonomien vil påvirke verdensøkonomien. Frem til nå har det i hovedsak vært fremvoksende økonomier som er blitt rammet av den svakere etterspørselen fra Kina.

Amerikanske, tyske og japanske selskaper har i liten grad blitt rammet. Noe av årsaken er at Kina fortsatt har hatt behov for roboter, maskiner og annen avansert teknologi som de selv ikke produserer, blant annet til elektronikkfabrikker og bilproduksjon.

UBS-økonomene mener at det kommer et nytt Kina-sjokk. Nå er det de store industrilandene som kan bli hardest rammet - og ikke råvareland.

«Den flerårige nedgangen i eiendomssektoren vil fortsette og vi kan se en mer langsiktig nedgang i den kinesiske etterspørselen etter utenlandsk industriimport», skriver analytikerne.

Avhengig av Kina

Det siste tiåret har antall land som har Kina som sin viktigste handelspartner blitt mer enn firedoblet. Målt mot sine egne lands bruttonasjonalprodukt, ble den kinesiske eksporten fordoblet for land som Japan, Sør-Korea og USA.

For Tyskland, EU og Australia har det vært tre- og firedoblinger sammenlignet med for ti år siden. Australia har ikke vært inne i en økonomisk resesjon siden begynnelsen av 1990-tallet.

«Alle land, også industriland og råvareavhengige produsentland, må forberede seg på hva svekkelsen i Kina vil bety for etterspørselen - uavhengig av om et blir økt etterspørsel fra USA eller EU», mener UBS.

Den økonomiske veksten forventes å havne på rundt syv prosent i år. Dette vil øke størrelsen på den kinesiske økonomien med rundt 800 milliarder dollar. Dette er nesten like mye som bruttonasjonalproduktet for Norge og Danmark til sammen, som i 2014 var på 840 milliarder dollar, ifølge Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF).

Flykter fra USA-børsen

Kinesiske internett- og teknologiselskaper angrer på at de er blitt børsnoterte i USA. Det kinesiske børsrallyet det siste året har gitt langt større verdivurderinger av sammenlignbare selskaper i Kina.

Internettselskapet Momo, som har en børsverdi på 3,3 milliarder dollar, er det siste i rekken av kinesiske selskaper hvor eksisterende aksjonærer vil bli løst ut. Grunnlegger Yan Tang har fått med seg Sequoia Capital til å betale 20 prosent over siste omsetningskurs.

De blir ikke satt pris på av amerikanske investorer. De forventer å ha en bedre dialog og kommunikasjon med kinesiske investorer. Memos forretningsmodell er helt unik og det er vanskelig for amerikanske investorer å skjønne den. Det gjør det fornuftig å dra til Kina, sier analytiker Henry Guo hos Summit Research Partners til Bloomberg News.

Hittil i år har 24 kinesiske selskaper ved amerikanske børser blitt strøket fra notering og privatisert med hjelp av store investorer. Verdien på disse privatiseringene ligger på rundt 25 milliarder dollar (195 mrd. kroner).

Endret 26.06.2015 10:15 av OldNick
OldNick
26.06.2015 10:15
#17001

Endre
Lavere valutareserver

Valutareservene i fremvoksende land falt med over 220 milliarder dollar i første kvartal - en nedgang på tre prosent sammenlignet med fjorårets siste kvartal, ifølge Wall Street Journal. Dette er det største fallet i valutareservene siden finanskrisen i 2009.

Hvis dette fortsetter vil landene være mer sårbare når USA, EU og Japan begynner å sette opp renten.

Det er ingen krise. De totale valutareservene er nok til å finansiere i gjennomsnitt 11 måneders import for de berørte landene. Før Asia-krisen i 1997 anbefalte Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) at land måtte ha tre måneders reserver. Nå er anbefalingen seks måneders buffer.

Fremvoksende land har valutareserver på 7500 milliarder dollar.

Markedene

Det er en bred oppgang ved de asiatiske aksjemarkedene på onsdag formiddag. Den japanske Nikkei-indeksen ligger på det høyeste nivået siden 1996 etter en nesten sammenhengende oppgang siden Shinzo Abe ble valgt som statsminister i 2012.

Også ved de kinesiske børsene er optimismen tilbake etter minikrakket i forrige uke da Shanghai-indeksen falt med over 13 prosent - over seks prosent på fredag. Småinvestorer står bak rundt 90 prosent av alle aksjetransaksjoner ved kinesiske børser.

«Det er interessant hvordan kinesiske medier angivelig fikk beskjed om å unngå overdreven rapportering av de massive korreksjonene ved børsene i forrige uke. Kommentarartikler ble kastet ut fra avisene for å berolige investorer. Det virker som det har fungert», skriver markedsstrateg Bernard Aw hos finansinstitusjonen IG i en morgenkommentar.
______

NRK har hatt en ny China-dokumentar på programmet, som forteller om den ekstreme gjeldsoppbyggingen som ahr skjedd siden finanskrisen i 2008.

NRK dokusommer: Korleis Kina lurte verda (TV-video)

Denne er bare tilgjengelig på NRK.NO frem til neste onsdag (1. juli)

Tekst:
Br. dokumentar. Den økonomiske giganten Kina er i alvorlege vanskar. Sidan finanskrisa i Vesten i 2008 har Kinas investeringar vore enorme: Dei har bygd 30 nye flyplassar, over 40 000 kilometer motorveg og har hatt ein ny skyskrapar ferdig kvar femte dag. Men det aller meste av dette har vore bygd på kreditt, og ein spør seg no om kinesarane nokon sinne kan betale tilbake. Robert Heston intervjuar kinesiske og internasjonale ekspertar og avslører korleis Kinas gjeld fører med seg ein trugsel om økonomisk kollaps med uoverskuelege konsekvensar for oss alle. (How China Fooled the World)
skipper*
27.06.2015 00:09
#11477

Endre
Når vi i Vesten snakker om 40 nye flyplasser og 40 000 kilometer motorveg, så menes det oppsving i økonomien... i China sier enkelt at dette er en boble...

Jeg tror ikke det, klart det er en konsolideringsfase som nå vil skape mer vekst, men muligens på andre premisser enn et vi har sett til nå...

Men det er klart det gir mer vekst å gi en kineser på landsbygda en traktor enn å gi en norsk bonde samme utstyr.. selv om traktoren utfører samme arbeid .. det er jo gammel økonomi...
highlander
28.06.2015 14:46
#4592

Endre
Vil dette kunne bidra til at "boblen" blåses enda større i Kina... eller vil det "kun" bremse fallet...?

China's central bank cuts lending, deposit and reserve ratios

China's central bank cut its benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 4.85 percent on Saturday, the fourth reduction since November, as it gears up to lower borrowing costs and support a slowing economy.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) also reduced one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points to 2 percent, it said in a statement on its website, adding that the reductions would take effect on Sunday.

Why China's RRR cut reeks of desperation
The PBOC last cut interest rates on May 10, lowering one-year benchmark lending rates by 25 basis points to 5.1 percent, and lowering one-year benchmark deposit rates by 25 basis points, to 2.25 percent.

Weighed down by a property downturn, factory overcapacity and local debt, growth in China's economy is expected to slow to a quarter-century low of around 7 percent this year. That is down from 7.4 percent in 2014, even with expected additional stimulus measures.

While more cuts had been expected as economic growth sputters, Saturday's changes follow a plunge of 20 percent in China's stock market in the last two weeks.
highlander
08.07.2015 11:14
#4660

Endre
For å sette Kina-nedgangen i perspektiv:

Shanghai Composite endte ned over seks prosent til 3.504 i dag, og har dermed falt mer enn 32 prosent siden toppen den 12. juni, og det samme har indeksen CSI 300.

Dette innebærer at nesten hele oppgangen i år er borte (SHCOMP sluttet på 3.234,68 den 31/12 2014), men indeksen er fremdeles opp 70 prosent det siste året.
OldNick
09.07.2015 01:43
#17064

Endre
Michael Pettis, prof. ved Peking Univ. tror myndighetene i China trenger et sterkt aksjemarked slik at private investorer kan øke sitt private forbruk og dermed bidra til å tranformere økonomien til mer konsumerdrevet.

Og han tror fortsatt har myndighetene muligheter til å støtte aksjemarkedet, slik at det kan komme et nytt rally før det ebber ut og prisingen blir mer fundamental.

80% Chance China Will Rally. Before Final Crash, Says Pettis

Michael Ide, Valuewalk.com
July 06, 2015

Utdrag:
Even after crashing last week, the Shenzhen Index has returned an amazing 87% over the last year. The big question is whether the market finds a floor (with lots of government assistance) or just keeps sliding toward some level where fundamentals matter, wherever that might be. Michael Pettis, professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, offers his self-described copout prediction.

"The Chinese stock markets probably have at least one more good rally in them before they come crashing down, but I wouldn't bet the farm. I would especially distrust owning shares in the big banks," he writes.



Two factors that made a Chinese crash likely

Although Pettis hadn't predicted a looming market crash, he wasn't surprised by it when it came either. He says that the combination of unprecedented margin debt and strategic convergence created the potential for a violent break.

...

That's more widely understood now than it was before the global financial crisis, but what people may not know is the extent of margin debt in China. David Keohane at The Financial Times reports that margin debt as a percentage of market cap has reached 3.4%, which is probably too high (it's about 2% in the US) but also understates the problem. Margin debt has reached 8.5% of free float, which is apparently without precedent.





Speculative herding in the Chinese stock market

The other factor is strategic convergence or herding: since a lot of investors are thinking about the Chinese market in the same way, they are likely to respond to the bad news in the same way as well. Specifically, Pettis says that the broad consensus is that Chinese equities are "a totally bullshit market" but that the government will continue to support it for a while longer.

So if the most recent money flowing into the market (it doesn't even have to be a majority of investors) is made up of people looking to cash in on the bubble and then dash out when the government either loses patience with or control of the situation. Like margin debt, this mentality is pro-cyclical and can unwind a lot faster than it pushes prices up.

Why Pettis thinks we'll see another rally

The Chinese government has cut interest rates and relax the margin lending rules it had been tightening, while Chinese brokers have pledged billions of dollars to shore up the stock market. Even though he doesn't think the Chinese government is happy about high stock prices, Pettis argues that it still needs the bull market to boost consumption spending by re

Endret 09.07.2015 01:47 av OldNick
OldNick
13.07.2015 10:33
#17077

Endre
retail investors who feel wealthy, to give state owned enterprises (SOE) a way to raise money without having to issue even more debt, and even to privatize some SOEs down the road (IPOs are being pared down for now). As long as they believe that the stock market can help them achieve more important policy goals, transitioning to a consumer society while getting debt under control, China's leaders may be willing to put up with a stock market cut loose from fundamentals.

Even if official support isn't enough, he says that the government still has other options at its disposal.

"Wealthy Hong Kong investors can also be induced to buy under arrangements in which Beijing guarantees losses - and there have been credible rumors in the past of such arrangements," Pettis writes.

So Pettis expects that the Chinese government will be able to stabilize the stock market, but only temporarily. At some point the high prices, detached from economic reality, will have to come down, and when they do the fallout will be severe.
______

Permabear Albert Edwards, analytiker hos SocGen, om det kinesiske aksjemarkedet.

ALBERT EDWARDS: China's stock market crash foreshadows how the 'global equity Ponzi scheme' will fall apart

Akin Oyedele, BusinessInsider.com
July 10, 2015

Societe Generale's Albert Edwards thinks there's much more at stake with what's happening to Chinese stocks.

In a note to clients Friday, Edward writes that apart from the stock market, what could also suffer is the reputation of Chinese authorities, who are taking drastic steps in what's meant to be a free market.

Edwards notes, via Templeton Investment's Mark Mobius, that what the government is doing would end up inspiring fear, not confidence, in the market, because it shows desperation.

And that loss of confidence could spread to the rest of the world, because the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have created similar stock bubbles, according to Edwards.

Here's Edwards, who said his views are not shared by Societe Generale (emphasis added):

The same loss of confidence in the omnipotence of the Chinese authorities will surely ultimately swirl westward. The Fed and the ECB have created similarly grotesque stock market bubbles in an effort to shore up their anemic economic expansions. Do not be surprised when the S&P collapses in exactly the same way as the Shanghai stock exchange, and don't expect the panic monetary measures that will be enacted (more QE) to prevent the ultimate denouement of this global equity Ponzi scheme.

The steps that Chinese authorities have taken seem to be working, for now. Chinese stocks had a second strong day on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite index gaining 6.4%. Thursday was its strongest day in six years.

Last weekend and early this week, Chinese authorities strongly intervened to arrest the plunge of the stock market. Some of their steps include a ban on major sales by shareholders for six months and forcing students to chant slogans praising the market.

But this will ultimately end badly, Edwards says.

He recalls that Pakistan did something similar in 2008, by putting a floor on the Karachi SE100 to arrest its plunge. When trading resumed, the market continued its free fall.

Edwards again:

It is not just that the authorities are thrashing around with various extreme measures to prevent the ongoing stock market collapse, and that the state-run media are blaming short sellers and foreigners for the free-fall. The wholesale suspension of stock trading will inevitably only temporarily prevent further collapse.

Via Edwards, this is what has happened to the Chinese stock market when the government stepped in:



Endret 13.07.2015 10:33 av OldNick
Graastein
13.07.2015 19:37
#657

Endre
Kapitalflukten fra Kina har vært enorm den siste tiden.

Tipper den ikke vil bli mindre nå, etter myndighetenes tiltak. Særlig forbudet mot å selge aksjer for de som eide mer enn 5 % av et selskap virker inngripende og svekker tilliten til systemet.

Kanskje er fallet stoppet for denne gang, men til en skyhøy pris.
Graastein
02.08.2015 22:29
#663

Endre
Tre norske Kina-eksperter utalte seg nylig i DN om landets fremtidig økonomiske utvikling.

En av dem, Hogne Tyssøy, i Holbergfondene tror kommunistpartiet har viljen og midlene til å styre landet i riktig retning. Forskerne fremhever fordelene med autoritært styresett i dagens situasjon og tror mange har vært for negative til Kina.

Jeg har en annen oppfatning enn de tre og har lenge ment at Kina vil overaske på nedsiden, slik landet også har gjort den siste tiden.

Jeg tror Hogne Tyssøy legger for mye vekt på virkemidlene kommunistpartiet har. Utfordringen, og det sentrale, er nemlig ikke hva myndighetene har av virkemidler, men hvordan virkemidlene brukes. Se eksempelvis på tiltakene myndighetene har innført for å hindre børsfallet. Jo da, kanskje har de klart å stoppe børsfallet, men til hvilken pris?

Slik jeg ser det er ikke tilliten til den kinesiske økonomien styrket selv om børsfallet kanskje er stoppet. Tilliten er grunnleggende blitt svekket av myndighetenes inngripen. For hvorfor er myndighetene i Kina plutselig blitt redde for et børsfall fra et latterlig høyt nivå? Står det så dårlig og skralt til i Kina at et børsfall truer stabiliteten? Hvis svaret er nei, hvorfor har de da innført de svært inngripende tiltakene, der viktige prinsipper, som respekten for privat eiendomsrett, settes på spill?

Kina har en historie der omveltninger ofte har kommet raskt og forutberegneligheten for den enkelte borger har vært minimal. Den erfaringen må prege den kinesiske pengeeliten i dag. Myndighetenes inngripen vil dermed skremme mange og føre til en ytterligere kapitalflukt.

Kapitalstrømmen inn/ut av Kina tror jeg kan være en god indikasjon på hvordan ting egentlig går.

Endret 02.08.2015 22:30 av Graastein
highlander
11.08.2015 15:39
#4796

Endre
- Nå er det bortimot full krise i kinesisk økonomi

Med nattens devaluering av yuanen gjør Kina gjør det største valutagrepet på flere tiår, i kjølvannet av en bremsende økonomi og fallende eksport.

Sjeføkonom Jan Andreassen i Eika-gruppen, som forventet en devaluering, tror grepet bare er starten på en større valutasvekkelse.

- Grunnen til at jeg trodde en devaluering var uunngåelig er at det ser ganske ille ut i kinesisk økonomi, og jeg tror markedsreaksjonen viser at folk har fått øynene opp for det. Nå er det alvor i Kina, sier sjeføkonomen til Nettavisen Stocklink.

Valutagrepet fra den kinesiske sentralbanken innebærer ifølge WSJ at den daglige fastsatte kursen ble satt til 6,2298 per dollar, mot 6,112 per dollar dagen før.

- Jeg tror yuanen er på vei mot syv blank mot dollar. Jeg er ganske sikker på at dette bare er begynnelsen, selv om de sier klart at dette er engangstiltak, sier Andreassen.

- Bortimot full krise
I oljemarkedet trekker prisene nedover etter valutasvekkelsen, med bidrag fra bekymring for effekten på Kinas etterspørsel, og også i aksjemarkedene er reaksjonen negativ.

- Dette bidrar til lavere råvarepriser. Samtidig skrur Japan på atomkraftverkene igjen og da vil Japan importere mindre energi av den typen vi eksporterer. Dette er nok en deflatorisk dreining, det betyr at våre eksportvarer vil fortsette å være svake. Før eller siden vil det tyte ut i mer anstrengte statsbudsjett og lavere kjøpekraft for nordmenn, mener Andreassen.

I Kina har inflasjonen målt ved konsumprisene trukket markant nedover. Samtidig er det deflatoriske tilstander for produsentene. I juli falt produsentprisindeksen med hele 5,4 prosent, den 41. måneden på rad med prisnedgang.

Sjeføkonomen frykter at Kinas deflasjon vil smitte over på resten av verden, noe som i så fall kan bli en hodepine for sentralbankene som styrer etter inflasjonsmål, deriblant Norges Bank.

- Deflasjonen i Kina kommer til å ha en enorm kraft i resten av verden. Det blir ikke flere rentehevinger i Norge i vår levetid. Kinas glansperiode er over, og nå er det bortimot full krise i kinesisk økonomi. Nå må de forsøke å gjøre hva de kan. Dette er bare begynnelsen.

- Det store for Norge er hva dette gjør med norske inflasjonsforventninger. Det inflasjonsmålet vi har er dødt, og farlig å tro på for en investor. Det som har skjedd i natt, med at Kina devaluerer og Japan skrur på denne reaktoren, en av mange som nå blir skrudd på, er bare et tegn i tiden, sier Andreassen.

- Overrasket markedene
Handelsbanken påpeker at Kina har holdt yuanen «relativt sterk den siste tiden i et forsøk på å forhindre kapitalflukt og for å oppfordre til økt internasjonal bruk av yuan», i tillegg til at sentralbanken ønsker en godkjennelse fra IMF av yuan som en offisiell reservevaluta.

Sterk valutakurs har imidlertid bremset Kinas eksport. Senest i juli viste handelstallene fra verdens nest største økonomi et fall i eksporten på 8,3 prosent.

- Den kinesiske sentralbanken oppga da også en for sterk yuan-kurs som årsaken bak devalueringen. Kinesiske myndigheter har den siste tiden tatt i bruk flere tiltak for å stimulere den økonomiske veksten i landet, og det var ventet at valutakursen kunne bli neste middel tatt i bruk. Gårsdagens betydelige devaluering overrasket likevel markedene, skriver sjeføkonom Kari Due-Andresen i Handelsbankens morgenrapport.
OldNick
12.08.2015 08:56
#17165

Endre
Kinesiske Yuan svekkes ytterligere, og mer ventes.

Yuan Drops in 'Vicious Cycle'; China's Central Bank Gives Market More Sway

Bloomberg
Aug. 12, 2015

The yuan sank for a second day, spurring China's central bank to intervene as the biggest rout since 1994 tests the government's resolve to give market forces more sway in determining the exchange rate.

The currency weakened as much as 2 percent to a four-year low of 6.4465 per dollar in Shanghai, after a 1.8 percent tumble yesterday that marked the steepest slide in two decades. While the People's Bank of China followed through on a pledge to align its fixing more closely with the previous day's closing level, people familiar with the matter said it intervened to prevent the currency from dropping too much.

China's surprise change to its currency regime on Tuesday rippled through global markets as investors speculated the move was timed to combat a deepening slowdown in the world's second-largest economy. The yuan's tumble roiled Asian currencies and equities again today, even after policy makers said there's no economic basis for a continuous fall.

The yuan is facing "a vicious cycle of depreciation," said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Credit Agricole CIB. "At some point they'll either abandon the implementation of the new fixing mechanism and stabilize the fixing, or they'll intervene heavily."
New Method

The PBOC lowered the yuan's daily fixing by 1.6 percent on Wednesday, after Tuesday's 1.9 percent reduction. Under the new methodology, market makers who submit contributing prices have to consider the previous day's closing spot rate, foreign-exchange demand and supply, as well as changes in major currency rates. Previous guidelines made no mention of those criteria. The fixing limits the onshore yuan's moves to 2 percent on either side.

Agent banks sold the dollar around the 6.43 level on behalf of the PBOC on Wednesday, said one person familiar with the matter. The central bank didn't immediately reply to a fax seeking comment.

The authority said earlier that current fluctuations are "normal" and that its daily fixings will "gradually move towards stability." It reiterated that the currency will be kept basically stable, highlighting the nation's trade surplus and $3.65 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves.
Old Ways

If the yuan drops too quickly, the PBOC could be forced to return to its old method of setting the fixing closer to where it wants the currency to trade, said Zhang Ming, director of international investment research at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. That's cheaper than using foreign-exchange reserves to influence the market, he added.

Tuesday's devaluation suggests policy makers are now placing a greater emphasis on supporting exports after overseas shipments declined the most in four months in July. A freer exchange trade will support China's campaign to gain entry into the International Monetary Fund's basket of reserve currencies.

In recent months, authorities propped up the yuan to deter capital outflows, protect foreign-currency borrowers and encourage greater global usage.

The Chinese currency fell 2.5 percent to 6.5580 per dollar in offshore trading as of 2:08 p.m. in Hong Kong, after a record 2.8 percent slide on Tuesday. The current level is 1.8 percent weaker than the spot rate in Shanghai, a gap that's widened from 0.1 percent at the start of the week.

Asian currencies tumbled amid concern a weaker yuan will reignite a currency war. South Korea's won, Malaysia's ringgit and Indonesia's rupiah all declined at least 0.9 percent against the dollar. The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index fell as much as 1 percent to a six-year low. Vietnam cited the PBOC's action as it widened the trading band on its own currency on Wednesday.

mer på link

Endret 12.08.2015 08:56 av OldNick
highlander
12.08.2015 15:11
#4800

Endre
- Primært en utfordring for råvarenæringer

- Jeg er ikke så veldig urolig over dette, sier investeringsdirektør Stig Myrseth til Nettavisen Stocklink.

Onsdag faller verdens børser videre, etter at Kina har devaluert for andre gang på to dager, med store utslag for selskaper som konkurrerer mot kinesiske selskaper eller selger varer til Kina.

- Min syn er at dette primært er en utfordring for råvarenæringer. Kina er en stor importør av råvarer, en import som blir dyrere når valutaen svekkes. De er også en stor eksportør av enkelte råvarer, som aluminium, sier investeringsdirektøren i Dovre Forvaltning.

På Oslo Børs får valutagrepet konsekvenser for aluminiumsprodusenten Norsk Hydro, som faller mer enn fire prosent.

- Det skyldes selvsagt at når valutaen faller så styrkes konkurranseposisjonen til kinesiske aluminiumsprodusenter. Man ser at dette har ført til en del frykt i selskaper som konkurrerer med Kina, det gjelder særlig råvarebransjen, sier Myrseth.

- Kina-grep skaper frykt
Kinas valutagrep, med en svekkelse av den offisielle yuan-kursen på 1,8 prosent i går og 1,6 prosent onsdag, har gitt omfattende utslag i markedene - i både aksjer, valuta og renter.

- Det kan være litt frykt for Kinas økonomi, siden de er nødt til å ty til dette grepet. Alle ble nok noe overrasket og det har skapt usikkerhet. Det er også generell deflasjonsfrykt. Inflasjonen er lav mange steder og skulle det bli en større devaluering i Kina frykter man at verden vil oversvømmes av billige kinesiske varer, slik at inflasjonen faller ned i negativt terreng, sier Myrseth.

I en morgenrapport påpeker DNB Markets at Kinas valuta nå er sitt svakeste mot dollar på fire år, Meglerhuset mener det ligger an til at kursen svekkes videre i morgen.

- Kina avviser at devalueringen er et ledd i en valutakrig, men at den er en del av en pågående liberalisering av markedene. Men med en svakere innenlandsk vekst, børsfall og netto kapitalutgang som er større enn overskuddet på driftsbalansen, er det et gunstig tidspunkt å «liberalisere» markedene, skriver DNB Markets-økonom Kyrre Aamdal.

- Kan forlenge bullmarkedet
Tross bekymringer for en bremsende kinesisk økonomi, tror ikke Myrseth på noen «hard landing».

- For det første kommer ikke den kinesiske økonomien til å gå inn for en hard landing. Kina har for mange muligheter til å stimulere, de har fortsatt verdens største valutareserver. For det andre betyr det at renten og inflasjonen kommer til å være lav. Jeg tror den viktigste drivkraften i aksjemarkedet har vært de lave rentene. Jeg tro dette kanskje til og med kan bety at bullmarkedet forlenges. Rentehevinger skyves frem i tid og blir mindre enn hva de ellers ville vært.

Investeringsdirektøren lar seg bekymre mer over den varslede renteøkningen i USA i år, den første siden før finanskrisen.

- Det har vært diskutert om det vil skje i september eller desember, og aksjemarkedet er rentesensitivt. Men det som skjer nå i Kina, tror jeg øker sannsynligheten for at det blir desember heller enn september. Årsaken er at fallet i råvaremarkedene vil virke dempende på prisstigningen og gjøre at sentralbankene kan ta seg bedre tid.

- Nå gjør egentlig kapitalmarkedet jobben for den amerikanske sentralbanken. Dollaren går opp i verdi, amerikansk eksport blir mindre konkurransedyktig. Det bidrar til å bremse amerikansk økonomi. Samtidig blir importerte varer billigere som bidrar til å holde prisstigningen nede. Da er spørsmålet om det er så mye behov for at Federal Reserve skal bremse økonomien og prisstigningen ytterligere gjennom å heve renta, sier Myrseth.
OldNick
12.08.2015 21:58
#17173

Endre
Denne ble skrevet før China begynte direkte devaluering...

Quantitative Easing With Chinese Characteristics Takes Shape

Bloomberg News
Aug. 9, 2015

______

Here's What China's Rescue Fund Is Buying to End the Stocks Rout

Bloomberg News
Aug. 9, 2015

China Securities Finance Corp. has quickly become one of the most influential investors in the Chinese stock market, with $483 billion of firepower and the potential to add $322 billion more.

As a linchpin of the government's market rescue effort, the agency has almost unmatched ammunition to move mainland share prices. So what exactly is it buying with all that cash?

CSF's silence on its strategy means the full picture is unclear. The agency is, however, leaving behind a few clues. Thanks to Chinese disclosure rules for large shareholders, exchange filings reveal the stocks in which CSF has built a major stake.

The disclosures show a preference for large-cap companies, and a particular affinity for railway shares. Outside that industry, CSF has positions in health care, food and technology stocks. The agency may also be investing through intermediaries, with the state-run China Securities Journal reporting last week that it plowed the equivalent of $32 billion into mutual funds.

"CSF has become the biggest player in this market," said Steve Wang, the chief China economist at Reorient Financial Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. "Investors should follow what the agency has bought, and at least avoid getting on its opposite side by shorting."

Here's a look at some of the biggest CSF positions tracked by Bloomberg, all of which the agency has initiated or increased since June 30:
- China Railway Group Ltd.
- China Railway Construction Corp.
- Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.
- TCL Corp.
- Guanghui Energy Co.
- Beijing Sanju Environmental Protection & New Material Co.
- Humanwell Healthcare Group Co.
- Nanjing Gaoke Co.
- Shanghai 3F New Materials Co.
- Guangdong Meiyan Jixiang Hydropower Co.
______

Lengre artikkel på E24, baserer seg på FT-artikler og DNB-analyser.

Kinas sorte hull

Meglerhus estimerer at rundt halvpartene av midlene til å holde oppe børsmarkedet, er brukt opp. Gjeldsnivået øker og myndighetenes intervesjon ser ikke ut til å gi makroøkonomiske effekter. Det koster penger å drive sorte hull


Susanne Klungtveit, E24.no
10.08.2015

Kinas historiske vekst de siste ti årene gjør at storøkonomien befinner seg i et slags limbo mellom et utdatert og moderne marked.

PMI-tallene som kom inn forrige uke, er kanskje det beste bildet på det. Den tradisjonelle industrinæringen leverte en innkjøpssjefindeks på 47,8, godt under 50 som er terskelen for om farten i industrien øker eller synker. Det står i motsetning til servicenæringens innkjøpssjefindeks som ble 53,8 i juli, den høyeste på 11 måneder. Det gir et godt bilde på overgangen fra sekundær til tertiær industri som landet nå går gjennom.

Denne endringen går derimot ikke smertefritt.

Høy prislapp på børskontroll

Financial Times skriver torsdag om Goldman Sachs' estimater som viser at de kinesiske myndighetene har brukt 144 milliarder dollar, svimlende 1.200 milliarder norske kroner, til å holde Kinas børsmarkeder oppe. Meglerhuset tror det totale fondet som brukes til å regulere markedet, er på rundt USD322 milliarde

Endret 12.08.2015 22:00 av OldNick
OldNick
12.08.2015 21:59
#17174

Endre
Den endelige prislappen får vi nok ikke se før de skal selge seg ut igjen. Det var flere som var skeptiske da «the Fed» (sentralbanken i USA red.anm.) kjøpte seg inn for å tilføre likviditet, men de har endt med å tjene gode penger på det. I Kina kan vi nok ikke si det samme, og de vil mest sannsynlig sitte med et tap, sier Ole André Kjennerud, seniorøkonom i DNB Markets.

Nøyaktig hvor stort dette fondet er, det imidlertid ingen som vet.

I prinsippet kan sentralbanken fortsette å trykke penger og pøse disse inn i markedet, sier Kjennerud til E24.

Børsene stabiliserte seg noe forrige uke etter en turbulent periode uken før. Shanghais A-aksjer endte opp 3,35 prosent, mens den mindre Shenzhen-indeksen var opp 3,15 prosent for uken. Mandag fortsetter oppturen: Shenzhen er opp 2,92 prosent og Shanghai er opp 3,20 litt over klokken seks mandag morgen. Det betyr imidlertid ikke at den kinesiske befolkningen har fått tro på markedet igjen.

Alt av bevegelser er styrt av myndighetene. At vi nå ser en oppgang, er, etter all sannsynlighet, myndighetenes kjøp av aksjer, sier Kjennerud som kaller det «et ikke-marked».

Litt over 12 prosent av selskapene på Shanghai-børsen er fremdeles suspendert. Shenzhen har fremdeles rett over 23 prosent suspendert fra børshandel.

Råtne lån øker

Kun forbigått av land i eurosonen som har hatt behov for kriselån, har Kina latt sin gjeldsbyrde vokse til rekordhøye 250 prosent av brutto nasjonalprodukt (BNP). 26.000 milliarder dollar er den estimerte summen på det gigantiske gjeldsfjellet ifølge Business Insider. Til sammenligning har USA 18.000 milliarder dollar i statsgjeld, hvor 7,2 prosent er eid av kinesiske investorer. Kinas statsgjeld er imidlertid langt lavere og estimeres til rundt 64 prosent av BNP i en rapport fra McKinsey.

I første halvår økte kinesiske bankers råtne lån med 35,7 prosent grunnet lavere økonomisk vekst og problemer for industriselskaper.

Misligholdte lån (Non-performing loans, NPLer) økte med 322,2 milliarder yuan, eller 52 milliarder dollar til 290 milliarder dollar ved utgangen av juni måned ifølge et notat Reuters har fått tilgang på. Disse lånene skal nå utgjøre 1,82 prosent av bankenes utlånsportefølje, en økning på 0,22 prosentpoeng.

Nivået er fremdeles veldig lavt, og langt lavere enn hva bankene hadde rapportert dersom de hadde benyttet samme standarder som vestlige banker, sier Kjennerud og utdyper:

For en økonomi som har bremset veksten fra tosifrede tall til 7 prosent, hvor 1 av 5 industriselskaper går med underskudd, er det kunstig at vi ikke har en større andel råtne lån enn det som er rapportert.

På samme tid har kinesiske bankers resultater bremset 13 prosent i første halvår sammenlignet med samme tid i fjor.

I det store bildet, som viser nedbremsingen i Kinas økonomiske vekst, begynner sannheten om banksektorens risiko og komme frem, skal Shang Fulin, leder av Kinas bankreguleringskommité, ha sagt i notatet nevnt ovenfor.

De største statlige eide bankene vil rapportere sine halvårsresultater de førstkommende ukene.

Det svarte hullet

Et bedre bilde på summen av dårlige gjeldseiendeler får vi dersom vi legger til en tilleggsfaktor.

«Speical mentions loans» er lån som nesten har fått status som råtne. Dersom vi legger de til de som faktisk er råtne, vil summen bli rundt 5 prosent, noe som trolig er mer representativt. Andelen har økt fra 3,5 prosent i begynnelsen av 2014, forklarer Kjennerud som tror de forfalte lånene vil fortsette å stige i fremtiden.

Gjeldsveksten i privat sektor har økt dobbelt så mye i Kina og Hongkong som neste på listen, Sverige og Singapore, og det kan tyde på at bankene står ovenfor problemer i

Endret 12.08.2015 21:59 av OldNick
OldNick
12.08.2015 22:01
#17175

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tidene som kommer.

- Utviklingen er litt vanskelig å tolke for tiden. På den ene siden ser vi rask vekst i bankenes utlån, som har økt med 12-13 prosent høyere fra samme tid i fjor. Samtidig faller innskuddene i banksystemene, og vi ser i stedet at gjeldsopptaket kun går til å betale andre lån utenfor Kinas grenser, sier Kjennerud.

Samtidig faller innskuddene i banksystemene, noe som tyder på at gjeldsopptaket kun går til å betale andre lån utenfor Kinas grenser.

Dette viser at den stimulerende politikken, som har inkludert lettelse på reservekrav, rentekutt, og tilførsel av likviditet ikke vil ha noen innvirkning på realveksten fremover, konkluderer Kjennerud.

Kinas sentralbanks kvartalsundersøkelse viser at bankene rapporterer om en svekket låneetterspørsel. Det indikerer at oppbremsingen i investeringer ikke vil avta med det første.

Vi vet ikke nok om soliditeten til bankene, og det forblir det svarte hullet i Kinas økonomi, sier Kjennerud og peker på at myndighetene tidligere har styrket balansen deres og sikret utlånsveksten.

Kina selv sier er at de har en gjeld på 20 prosent av bruttonasjonalprodukt (BNP), men om potensielle tap og statsgjeld legges til, tror Kjennerud den reelle gjeldsbyrden er på rundt 60 prosent og advarer:

Dersom vi tar med alle potensielle tap som ligger i banksystemet, vil gjelden kunne hoppe ganske mye. Erfaringsmessig er det lite gunstig å ha en statsgjeld som nærmer seg 100 prosent av BNP, særlig dersom veksten i økonomien er avtagende, slik Kina opplever nå.
______

China har oppfordret IMF til å inkludere Yuan blant de valutaene som inngår i det utvalget de har for sin egen "IMF-valuta" - Special Drawing Rights.

Foreløpig har IMF sagt de mener Yuan ikke er klar for å inkluderes, og vil utsette avgjørelsen et år.

Vi har jo sett de siste dagene at det nok er et klokt forslag.

Delaying yuan debut as IMF reserve currency not a bad thing

The Standard, HK
Aug. 10, 2015

______

Det kinesiske bilsalget har vært den store driveren i verdens bilindustri.

Nå har det hatt en foreløpig topp i vinter, og denne trenden kan ha flere årsaker, kanskje den viktigste er usikkerheten om veksttakten fremover.



Kina's totale salg av kjøretøyer (private+kommersielle, ca. 0.3m per måned er kommersielle).
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Vi ser at salget falt videre i Juli, helt ned til 1.5m kjørtetøy (kommersielle inkl.), det er en formidabel kontraksjon fra 2.4m i Des. 2014!

China Auto Sales Fell Again in July

Car makers that have profited from Chinese demand could soon feel squeeze on profit and growth


Rose Yu in Shanghai, Friedrich Geiger in Berlin, Eric Pfanner in Tokyo, In-Soo Nam in Seoul, WSJ
Aug. 11, 2015

China passenger-vehicle sales fell for a second consecutive month in July, registering a 6.6% year-over-year decline that heightens concern about price cuts and excess inventory in the world's largest auto market.

The bulk of cars sold in China are built locally, so the global auto industry could avoid material losses tied to Tuesday's yuan devaluation by China's central bank. Still, soft demand presents a hurdle for auto giants in North America, Europe and Asia that have come to depend on the Chinese market for a big chunk of their profit.

Volkswagen AG, China's top auto maker by sales volume, said weakness in China dented second-quarter earnings, offsetting a stronger Western European market. Rival BMW AG warned that a further softening in China could crimp the company's outlook. General Motors Co. said that in
OldNick
12.08.2015 22:03
#17176

Endre
China industry pricing-the closest-watched indicator of industry health-will decline more than anticipated this year.

Long the fastest-growing major automobile market, China has stalled amid a slower economy, a government crackdown on corruption and curbs on car ownership as cities aim to reduce congestion and pollution.

Combined sales of passenger and commercial vehicles in the country fell 7.1% in July, to about 1.5 million vehicles, the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Tuesday. Sales of passenger cars slipped to 1.27 million vehicles, after falling 3.4% in June.

Even as car markets in Europe and North America post strong growth, tough conditions in an array of emerging markets presents a sizable pothole for auto makers. Sales in Russia fell by more than a third in the first half, while Brazil light-vehicle sales are off 19%, according to researcher WardsAuto.com.

Many market participants remain optimistic concerning a rebound. At a conference in Michigan last week, a senior analyst with Beijing-based State Information Center said growth will return in coming months, buoyed by pent-up demand and a recovery of the stock market.

"The stock-market volatility has a bigger impact on car sales than the economic slowdown," said Yale Zhang, head of Shanghai-based researcher Automotive Foresight. "Most people who piled into the stock market in the second quarter are also the target of car makers."

Commenting on preliminary results in a note sent to investors on Friday, Credit Suisse auto analyst Dan Galves said the decline is actually a "decent result" relative to expectations, and said the softer environment may reflect moves by auto makers to address dealer inventory levels that have risen.

A recent survey of China's more than 20,000 dealers by the China Automobile Dealers Association, a government-backed trade group, showed that at the end of June dealers on average had inventories equal to 1.68 months' sales, virtually unchanged from 1.7 months in May and 1.67 months in April. In China, analysts regard 1.5 months of sales on lots as the "alert level" at which dealers should begin to be concerned about high inventory.

By contrast, dealers in more developed automotive markets like the U.S. can hold larger inventories mainly because they profit by selling used cars, financing, service and insurance products.

Large numbers of unsold cars at Chinese dealerships sparked a new round of price cuts last month, increasing the likelihood that earnings from joint-venture operations will be clipped in the near term.

South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. cut the price of two sport-utility vehicles in China by as much as 12% in response to rising competition from Chinese brands; Nissan Motor Co. last week unveiled a new Murano SUV with a smaller engine and a 34% lower price.

Most car makers reported weak China sales for July. GM's vehicle sales were down 4% from a year earlier, Ford Motor Co. 's were off 6% and Nissan's fell 14%. Toyota Motor Corp. was an exception; its sales were up 24% due to strong gains in compact sedans.

As the world's second-largest economy continues to sputter, China's central bank on Tuesday devalued the country's currency against the U.S. dollar by nearly 2%, its biggest one-day decline in more than two decades.

"If the move is limited to just a few percent, it will have a minimal impact, even for the American auto makers, who are most vulnerable," said Janet Lewis, an analyst at Macquarie Securities.

China is the largest market for German car makers BMW, Daimler AG and Volkswagen-all of which locally produce many of the cars they sell in China. Analysts said the three companies' results also are largely hedged against exchange rates.

A 1.9% devaluation of the yuan, were it to last, would shave about ?135 million ($149 million) off BMW's earnings before interest and tax next year, said Evercore ISI analyst Arndt Ellinghorst, amounting to a 1.2% slice.

Endret 12.08.2015 22:03 av OldNick
OldNick
12.08.2015 22:04
#17177

Endre
It would cut EBIT at Volkswagen and Daimler by under 1% at each.

For Japanese car makers, the cost of Japanese-made parts might rise slightly, but since the devaluation also dragged down the yen against the dollar, the effects would be minimal.
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FT hadde for en tid siden en interessant blogartikkel om China's bilmarked, med øyne på et bruktmarked som til nå har vært relativt marginalt.

China's new car market goes ex-growth as used car sales take off

Paul Hodges, International eChem
June 30, 2015

Major structural change is under way in China's passenger car market. New car sales grew just 1.2 per cent in May, as the country develops a used car market for the first time in its history. Buyers in the world's largest auto market now have much more choice when it comes to buying a car, and are no longer forced to buy a new car.



Chart 1 highlights the impact of this change, which is yet to be fully appreciated by many investors and suppliers to the industry. It shows new and used passenger car sales from 2000 - 2014, with our forecasts to 2020:

- The used car market only began to develop very recently (green area), but China's Automotive Dealers Association (CADA) currently forecast that its volume will double to 11m this year

- In turn, this means that the ratio of used to new car sales (red area) is set to rise very sharply, towards the 2x - 3x levels typical in most car markets. The CADA forecast means China's ratio will double from the 0.22x level seen in 2010 to 0.5x in 2015, and we expect it to reach 0.75x in 2017 and 1x by 2020

- At the same time, the end of China's stimulus programme means that growth rates for the total car parc will continue to decline in line with recent trends

- Growth dropped from 19 per cent in 2010 to 12 per cent in 2014, and we assume this will fall to 8 per cent in 2017 and 6 per centy by 2020

Alternate scenarios are, of course possible. But common to all of them is the emergence of the used car market as a major alternative to the purchase of a new car. This has not been possible before, and will create new income streams for dealers and manufacturers. It will also make car purchase more affordable for ordinary Chinese, as older and cheaper used cars will become available as reliable 'entry level' vehicles for the first time.

The shift is also supported by the increasing difficulty of obtaining a new licence plate in China's tier 1 cities. Introduced as a measure to combat pollution, this means that Beijing, for example, now issues only 240,000 new license plates each year, and plans to cap the number of vehicles at 6m by 2017. One key advantage of a used car is that it comes with a licence plate.

China's stimulus programme rescued the global auto market after the global financial crisis. Its new car sales trebled from 6.3m in 2007 to 19.4m last year. As Chart 2 shows, sales in the other 6 major markets increased by just 600,000, from 40.8m to 41.4m over the same period. Sales in Q1 2015 would also have been flat without China's 300,000 gain.



Critical to this development was the fact that bicycles and motorbikes had been the main form of personal transport until very recently. In 2000, China's total car parc was just 16m cars, and it was still only 24m cars in 2004. Equally important was that most of these cars were poor quality. Thus their average lifespan was relatively short, only around a third of today's US lifespan of 11.4 years.

But the post-2008 stimulus programme changed these dynamics, as China's market became a magnet for foreign manufacturers. German brands alone took 27 per cent market share in 2014, reducing domestic brands to just 22 per cent

Endret 12.08.2015 22:04 av OldNick
OldNick
13.08.2015 11:11
#17185

Endre
market share. As a result, the quality of cars in China has seen rapid improvement. The average age of the auto fleet is expected to rise from 3 years in 2012 to 4.5 years in 2017, and to 10 years by 2020, thereby creating the basis for a major increase in the size of the used car market.

In turn, business models are changing in the industry. Major foreign manufacturers such as BMW, Audi and Volvo have begun to introduce western-style certification services to guarantee the quality of used cars. These will cover 30 cities by next year. They have realised that used car sales are already providing an attractive revenue stream, with Audi seeing 34 per cent growth last year.

Dealers can also gain good profits from used car sales and servicing. These areas are proving far more attractive than new car sales, where 70 per cent of dealers were reportedly unprofitable last year. Chinese investors have been quick to pick up on this shift in demand patterns. Online used car retailer Uxin easily raised $170m in March, and its service-led business model based on the internet is expected to prove very popular.

Change on this scale in the world's largest auto market will create winners and losers. Even on our rather optimistic assumptions above, annual new car sales volume will rise by only 6m between 2014 - 2020. This will be a dramatic change from the 2008 - 2014 picture, when annual volumes rose by 13m. Investors and industry suppliers are likely to find that past performance is not a reliable guide to the future.

Paul Hodges is chairman of International eChem, a London-based strategy consultancy, and co-author of "Boom, Gloom and the New Normal".
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Enorm industriulykke i China i natt.

17 rapport døde så langt iflg. BBC, men tallet er sannsynligvis langt, langt høyere enn dette.

China blasts: Tianjin port city rocked by explosions

BBC News
Aug. 13, 2015

Utdrag:
Massive explosions have hit China's northern city of Tianjin, leaving at least 17 people dead and hundreds more injured.

State media said the blasts happened in a warehouse storing "dangerous and chemical goods" in the port area of the city.

Pictures and video on social media showed flames lighting up the sky, and buildings are said to have collapsed.

Hospitals are reported to be overwhelmed with casualties.

President Xi Jinping has urged "all-out efforts" to rescue victims and contain the fire, Xinhua state news agency said.



State broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) said a shipment of explosives had detonated but this was not confirmed.

State media also said senior managers of Ruihai Logistics, which owned the warehouse where the explosion took place, were being questioned by authorities.

The first explosion at about 23:30 (15:30 GMT) on Wednesday was followed by another, more powerful blast, seconds later. Shockwaves were felt several kilometres away.

BBC Chinese Service editor Raymond Li says all indications are that it was an industrial accident.



mer bilder, videoer og tekst på link

Endret 13.08.2015 11:11 av OldNick
skipper*
26.08.2015 07:06
#11618

Endre
Panikk og panikk handel..

Fra artikkelen:
Wang ved Fudan University mener det ikke bør overraske noen at veksten faller fra et nivå som har vært oppe i ni prosent. Kina har lenge varslet reformer og omstrukturering av økonomien, påpeker han.

- Veksten avtar, men dette betyr ikke slutten på verden, sier professoren.

Endret 26.08.2015 07:07 av skipper*
Graastein
30.08.2015 19:00
#664

Endre
Den siste tiden har det vært en del motstridende informasjon om hva som er det sannsynlige nivået på BNP veksten for 2015. Noe av spekulasjonene går på om myndighetene har justert litt på statistikken eller om tallene som gis ut, mer har karakter av svindel. De fleste har lat tvilen komme myndighetene til gode og falt ned på at de offisielle tallene kanskje er litt for høye, men ikke grunnleggende feilaktige. The Economics mener i siste utgave eksempelvis at 5% vekst er i den lave enden av det som er realistisk. Jeg tror IMF hadde et anslag rundt 7%, og dermed nokså nærme de offisielle tall.

I dag leste jeg imidlertid en oppsiktsvekkende artikkel på Alphaville av Christopher Balding, en Beijing professor. Balding har tatt utgangspunkt i produksjonsdata "output" for enkelte deler av økonomien. Tallene er hentet fra Wind. Så langt har jeg ikke funnet noen som mener dataene fra Wind ikke gir riktig uttrykk for hva som er realiteten i de enkelte sektorer.

Sektorene som Balding så på, dekket ikke hele økonomien, men rundt 2/3 deler. Resultatet fra Baldings analyse indikerer at det ikke er noen vekst i økonomien i det hele tatt. Nullvekst i BNP, i beste fall. Samtidig vet vi at importen og eksporten heller ikke øker og at det er en nettoflom av kapital ut av landet. Fra hvor i økonomien kommer da veksten på 7 %?

Urovekkende fra Baldings tall er også at vi ikke ser noen økningen i forbruket, vekst i privatkonsum, skal jo være vekstmotoren når investeringene i infrastruktur faller.


Nedenfor finner dere link til Baldvins blogg, hvor samme artikkel er lagt ut.


http://www.baldingsworld.com
Graastein
30.08.2015 19:02
#665

Endre
Dersom Baldings data er holdbare burde saken vært på førstesiden i all finanspresse.
Graastein
31.08.2015 10:18
#668

Endre
Artikklen lå ikke på bloggen, klipper den inn under:

By Christopher Balding, Professor of Economics at Peking University, HSBC Business School, and blogger at Balding's World.

Throughout the Chinese stock market run up and subsequent collapse, the most fundamental question revolved around the robustness of the overall economy.

Though officially Chinese growth rates remain buoyant at 7 per cent, scepticism runs deep due to apparent inconsistencies between government and industrial data as well as technical issues over how GDP is calculated. Beijing, and those who have faith in Beijing, continue to insist that growth figures are accurate, though providing little supporting evidence.

The most basic problem with analysing the Chinese economy is that data is difficult to obtain. To better understand the current state of the Chinese economy, I looked at output data from the Chinese data provider Wind. As well as official data, Wind provides a wide variety of financial, industrial, and pricing data that allows us to move beyond official sources to begin to understand the real Chinese economy.

Before presenting and analyzing the data, there are numerous issues that need noting.

First, this is not intended to replicate or reconcile with GDP figures. GDP accounting requires compensating for numerous other factors, such as qualitative differences in goods and productivity which are omitted here. Thus - due partly to the length of time required to do so, and no official guidance on methodological issues - I am focusing on presenting output data.

However, specific product output is in many ways a better metric of economic activity than GDP anyway, as firms receive cash flow and employees are paid for production. In other words, there is a much closer link between specific product output and economic activity. However, one remaining shortcoming is our inability to weight the output data based upon output.

I'll also add a brief word about the variety of data before I properly begin. The output data which covers a large variety of industries from primary to services, is comprehensive but definitely not exhaustive. For instance, there is no data on financial intermediation. For reasons that will be explained, this is not a major problem. However, from ore production to transportation and other services, this data presents a comprehensive picture of the Chinese economy. To provide some perspective, the 33 industries directly represent approximately two thirds of the Chinese economy and indirectly an even higher percentage.

The picture of the Chinese economy we receive from output data through July 2015 is unequivocal weakness.

There are a number of specific points that should be highlighted from our survey.

First, average year to date output between 2014 and 2015 declined 1.5 per cent. The average median year to date industry output decline from 2014 to 2015 was actually slightly worse at 1.7 per cent. In other words, output across sectors was very weak and even declining by most measures.

Second, output weakness was widespread throughout industries and not confined to a few special cases. For instance, of the 33 industries and sub-industries covered, two had average year to date output growth in excess of 10 per cent and only two witnessed output growth exceeding 5 per cent. Nor does this weakness appear to be a short lived phenomenon. Only a quarter of industries saw two year output growth exceed 15 per cent. The weakness of Chinese economic activity was not limited to select industries but was widespread and appears longer lasting than believed.

Third, if we zoom in on specific industries the output weakness tells us how broad based it is, about changes to the historical drivers of growth, and current Chinese consumption.

For instance, everything related to real estate - from real estate investment, iron and steel, and building materials - demonstrates real weakness. The weakness is not limited to industries we already knew were weak but i
Graastein
31.08.2015 10:23
#669

Endre
Den var for lang for ST, Alphaville blir kanskje heller ikke happy hvis jeg legger den ut i sin helhet, jeg lar det derfor bli med dette.
OldNick
31.08.2015 13:12
#17260

Endre
Men en link til artikkelen er veldig nyttig dog.


Guest post: Trying to throw our arms around the (sick) Chinese economy

Christopher Balding, FT Alphaville
Aug. 28, 2015


Christopher Balding, Professor of Economics at Peking University, HSBC Business School, and blogger at Balding's World
______

Sannelig meg en interessant artikkel.

OECD's composite leading indicators viser samme trend, sterk avmating i China, nå nede på 97.4 i Juni-2015, fallende fra 100.23 i Jan-2014 via 99.42 i Juli-2014 og 98.14 i Jan-2015.

Vil kunne gi en hard landing i China dette.
______

Men, alt trenger ikke vært hel-svart.

The 21 commodities that say China isn't the problem: Russell

Clyde Russell, Reuters
Aug. 25, 2015

______

China's richest man says time for government to abandon high growth rate 'fantasy'

Shu Zhang, Matthew Miller, Reuters
Aug. 27, 2015

highlander
08.09.2015 17:09
#4904

Endre
Vil stenge børsene hvis de stiger eller synker for mye.

Det går fram av en uttalelse fra børsene i Shanghai og Shenzhen tirsdag.

Hvis indeksen CSI 300 svinger mer enn 5 prosent, skal aksjehandelen opphøre i en halvtime. Og hvis oppgangen eller nedgangen er på mer enn 7 prosent, skal børsene stenges resten av dagen.

Formålet med tiltaket er «langsiktig stabilitet og en sunn utvikling i markedet for verdipapirer», heter det i uttalelsen. Kinas aksjemarkeder har de siste månedene vært preget av kraftige fall, og den viktigste indeksen ved Shanghai-børsen har sunket om lag 40 prosent siden midten av juni.

Regelen om midlertidig børsstenging er godkjent av kinesiske finansmyndigheter, men børsene oppfordrer likevel folk til å komme med innspill og si hva de mener om det foreslåtte tiltaket. (©NTB)
OldNick
08.09.2015 17:31
#17304

Endre
A False Alarm About China

Shang-Jin Wei, Project-Syndicate.org
Sept. 4, 2015

Manila - To hear some pundits tell it, China's economic miracle - one that lifted 300 million people out of poverty and shifted the world's geopolitical center of gravity - is coming to a tumultuous end. The volatile stock market and the renminbi's "surprise" depreciation are signs of imminent economic collapse, according to this view, as risky investments and high levels of government debt put the brakes on decades of turbo-charged output growth.

Fortunately, there is little reason to believe such dire predictions, or that the market gyrations that have been driving recent headlines represent anything more than short-term volatility. After all, equity-price movements are a poor predictor of the real economy's performance.

Indeed, when Chinese GDP was growing strongly during 2010-2013, stock prices were falling. More recently, when stock prices began soaring during the first half of 2015, the economy's slowdown had already begun. As the American economist Paul Samuelson famously quipped, "The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions."

China's growth has slowed largely as a result of changes in its fundamentals: less favorable demographics, a shift in emphasis from exports and public investment to the service sector and domestic consumption, and lower demand from advanced economies. But China's past success also contributed to this slowdown, in the form of higher wages, which narrow the scope for rapid growth based on low-cost labor and technological catch-up.

Additional signs of weakness, including soft data on exports and investment, emerged in the first half of 2015. But other important indicators - like retail sales and housing - show upticks. And, perhaps most important, the country's labor market remains healthy, creating some 7.2 million new urban jobs - many of them in services - in the first half of 2015. Meanwhile, wage growth remains strong and uninterrupted. China's growth rate may be lower than 7% this year, but I do not believe that it will end up very far from the government's target of "about 7%."

The volatility in equity prices in recent months has more to do with the peculiarities of China's stock markets than with the country's underlying economic fundamentals. In more developed economies, such as the United States and Europe, many institutional investors - who tend to be focused on long-term fundamentals - help stabilize stock markets. By contrast, the Chinese markets are dominated by retail investors, who are more likely to pursue short-term gains and engage in momentum trading, thereby exacerbating volatility and creating a greater disconnect between equity prices and real economic growth.

Moreover, the firms listed on China's stock exchanges are not representative of the country's companies. Majority state-owned firms account for two-thirds of the market value of the country's exchanges, for example, though they are responsible for no more than one-third of Chinese GDP and an even smaller share of employment.

The rise and fall of the Chinese stock market should also be understood in the context of Chinese households' limited options for storing savings. The run-up in prices took place at a time when deposit interest rates were officially capped. When the alternatives are few and provide only low returns, the equity market looks more attractive, especially if - as was the case - the country's major newspapers are running bullish editorials about stock prices.

More recent developments may have contributed to the downward pressure on prices, including discussion about abolishing interest-rate ceilings on deposits (the cap on term deposits of one year or more was removed on August 25). The greater ease with which wealthy households can move savings out of the country, along with an an
OldNick
08.09.2015 17:31
#17305

Endre
More recent developments may have contributed to the downward pressure on prices, including discussion about abolishing interest-rate ceilings on deposits (the cap on term deposits of one year or more was removed on August 25). The greater ease with which wealthy households can move savings out of the country, along with an anticipated increase in interest rates in the United States, was likely another contributing factor.

Furthermore, as Harvard's Jeffrey Frankel has pointed out, regulators increased margin requirements several times this year, making it harder to buy stocks with borrowed money. And, as with all stock markets, shifts in sentiment that are not connected to fundamentals can also drive volatility.

Whether China's economy can continue to grow rapidly will depend far more on its ability to reform than on how its stock markets perform. If China is to thrive in the long term, raising its aggregate productivity is key. This means that it will need to overhaul its state-owned firms and the financial sector so that resources can flow to the most productive investment projects. Lowering the tax burden on firms - including the payroll tax - would also be useful.

Reforms that increase the flexibility of the labor market are also in order. While China used to have a relatively flexible labor market in the manufacturing sector, firms' reallocation of workers based on market needs has become more difficult in recent years. Greater flexibility might not stimulate short-term growth, but it would improve resilience to future negative shocks, whether they originate at home or abroad.

As long as China continues to pursue pro-market reforms, it will remain the largest single-country contributor to global GDP growth over the medium term - unperturbed by stock-market volatility. If reforms stall, falling stock prices are likely to be the least of China's worries.
______


Shang-Jin Wei

Shang-Jin Wei is Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank and the head of its Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department.
OldNick
14.09.2015 15:20
#17333

Endre
China planlegger en ny stimuleringspakke, denne gangen mer enn Yuan 1 000 mrd. (= ca. US$160 mrd)

China mulls trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus: report

Sara Sjolin, Marketwatch
Sept 11, 2015

Beijing is considering injecting more than 1 trillion yuan ($160 billion) into the Chinese economy over the next three years, state news agency Xinhua said on Friday, citing a report from the China International Capital Corporation. According to the CICC report, the stimulus package will be between 1.2 trillion and 1.5 trillion yuan and is likely to drive a total potential investment of 5 trillion to 7 trillion yuan in the next three years. That's as much as 3.4% of the 2015 gross domestic product each year. The investment projects will be funded by commercial lenders, private investors and policy banks, the report said. Earlier this week, China's finance ministry said the country will roll out a "more forceful" fiscal policy to stimulate growth.
______

China to roll out trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus: report

Xinhua
Sept. 11, 2015

BEIJING -- China is considering more than 1 trillion yuan in fiscal stimulus over the next three years, according to a latest report from the China International Capital Corporation (CICC).

A total of 1.2 trillion yuan (188 billion U.S. dollars) to 1.5 trillion yuan may be taken from the government coffers to replenish the capital for investment projects, mainly those already approved by the authorities, the investment bank estimated.

The stimulus is likely to drive a total potential investment of 5 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan in the next three years, or 2.5 percent to 3.4 percent of the 2015 GDP each year, it said.

Investment projects will be funded by not only policy banks but also commercial lenders and private investors via the public-private partnership.

The report came after the Ministry of Finance put forward multiple fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth on Tuesday, such as coordinating funds to accelerate project construction, activating idle money and widening tax breaks.

The move indicated that China's fiscal policy will be "firing on all cylinders to support growth", the CICC said.

China is battling a property downturn, industrial overcapacity, sluggish demand and struggling exports, which dropped growth to 7 percent for the first half of the year.

Fiscal policy has moved to center stage in growth stabilization, as the room for monetary loosening became more constrained after several interest rate cuts and fiscal deposits continued to increase, according to the CICC.
______

De nyeste nøkkeltallene fra Kina skuffer på noen punkter.

Shanghai-børsen falt 3.6% idag morges (på det kanskje?).

Kina-tall skuffer: Vitner om en økonomi som går langsommere

Nøkkeltall viser at den kinesiske økonomien går noe tregere enn ventet


Sophie Lorch-Falch, E24.no
13.09.2015

Søndag morgen kom tall som gir ytterligere indikasjoner på den økonomiske utviklingen i verdens nest største økonomi. Flere økonomer har varslet at tallene kan skape mer børsuro i et allerede nervøst aksjemarked.

** Det som overrasker mest på nedsiden er veksten i investeringer i faste eiendeler/infrastruktur. De viste en nedgang til 10,9 prosent. Det var på forhånd ventet en oppgang til 11,2 prosent, sammenlignet med samme periode i fjor.

** Industriproduksjonen steg til 6,1 prosent. Konsensusestimatene som på forhånd var hentet inn tilsa en vekst på 6,3 prosent.

Endret 14.09.2015 15:20 av OldNick
OldNick
14.09.2015 15:20
#17334

Endre
** Detaljhandelstallene viste derimot en oppgang til 10,8 prosent. Det er en oppgang fra 10,5 prosent måneden før, og 0,2 prosentpoeng høyere enn forventningene.

Positivt

Det var litt lavere enn ventet. Der er ikke dramatisk lavere, men noe lavere, sier sjeføkonom Steinar Juel i Nordea Markets til E24.

Det føyer seg inn i rekken av tall som tyder på en svakere utvikling i landet.

Han mener det er positivt investeringene i faste eiendeler ikke vokser mer, og peker på at tallene har vært for høye over tid.

Det langsiktige behovet er å få det ned, fordi de investerer i mye ulønnsom virksomhet, sier Juel.

Da bør også forbruket øke en del, og det har det ikke gjort. Det vitner hele veien om en økonomi som går langsommere.

Han tror likevel ikke tallene er egnet til å skape de store svingene når markedene åpner mandag.

Det kan bli litt negativt, men ingen voldsom reaksjon, sier Juel.

Kan være de formelt når 7 prosent

Han fester imidlertid sviktende lit til troverdigheten til kinesiske myndigheter, som slipper tallene.

Et generelt problem med Kina, er hvor mye man kan stole på tallene, sier han.

Kinas økonomi vokste med 7,0 prosent i hver av årets første to kvartaler, noe som var den svakeste veksten siden 1990. I samme periode i fjor vokste økonomien med 7,4 prosent, ifølge kinesiske myndigheter.

Det kan være de formelt når 7 prosent vekst i år, men jeg tror ikke på de tallene i det hele tatt. Jeg tror ikke den underliggende veksten i Kina er syv prosent. Om det er seks eller fire prosent, som Citibank hevder, er umulig å si, sier Juel.

mer på link
______

En fin artikkel med fine chart og fremstillinger som viser noen av China's utfordringer fremover.

The Chinese Growth Engine is Sputtering

Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist blog
Aug. 11, 2015


Eks.





______

En annen fra samme side:

China Consumes Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials

Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist blog
Aug. 11, 2015




Med noe tekst til - på link

[Min kommentar:

Vi har det siste året sett hvor risikabelt det er for en så stor industri som råvare-industriene at det er et land (= "1 kunde") som er så dominerende på kundesiden.

Ikke noe nytt, men diagrammet er illustrerende.]

Endret 14.09.2015 15:23 av OldNick
Graastein
25.10.2015 18:33
#675

Endre
Den siste tiden har det negative fokuset på kinesisk økonomi stilnet litt, men jeg tror ikke dette er over og at oppmerksomheten igjen snart vil rettes mot skuffende lav kinesisk vekst.

Jeg vil driste meg til å komme med to langsiktige spådommer:

1 Kinesisk økonomi kommer til å skuffe i flere år.
2 Det kinesiske samfunnet kommer til å bevege seg til venstre (mindre marked).

Når det gjelder spådom en om lavere vekst, synes jeg professor Michel Pettis, som det finnes link til på denne tråden, har redegjort for det på en utmerket måte, så jeg går ikke inn nærmere inn på det her.

Jeg vil imidlertid si et par ord når det gjelder fremtidige ideologiske strømninger.

Dersom mesteparten av den økonomiske veksten forsvinner, må vi regne med at frontene vil hardne til og at kampen om makten internt i partiet, og i samfunnet ellers, vil intensiveres. Da kan ideologi bli viktigere enn det er i dag.

Historisk er det en god del eksempler på at det i samfunn som gir svært lite rom for frihet og opposisjon lett kan oppstå sterke ideologisk strømning som er dogmatisk, antiliberal og konservative.

Saudi Arabia kan være et god eksempel i så måte. Den innflytelsesrike opposisjonen i Saudi Arabia kommer ikke fra liberalere, men fra fundamentalister.

Jeg tenker at noe lignende kan skje i Kina, men her vil det være de ideologiske elementer fra kommunismen, som de misfornøyde vil søke seg til.

Egentlig mener jeg at en dreining alt har skjedd, og man skal være klar over at offisielt fremstår Xi som tilhenger av kommunistiske idealer. Jeg har selv lest en av talene til Xi, som var beregnet på partimedlemmer, og den var gjennomsyret av gammeldags marxistisk terminologi.

Timer i kommunistisk lære, er for øvrig, tilbake som en del av den obligatorisk undervisningen som studenter må gjennom på universitetene.

Den vestorienterte opposisjonen er knust og den fremstår ikke lenger som noe alternativ.

Det er også et moment at i undervisningen, fra barneskolen, er et hovedfokus historier om alle ugjerninger vesten (og Japan) har begått mot Kina, før kommunistpartiet tok makten. Kommunistpartiet satte en stoppe for ydmykelsene og har bygget Kina sterkt, lærer kinesiske barn. Denne propagandaene er nok mesteparten av befolkningen preget av.

Med dette som bakteppe vil kanskje den venstreorienterte del av partiet fremstå som et tiltrekkende alternativ for de misfornøyde, for de som står utenfor og for mange med et sosialt engasjement. Denne retningen vil også kunne hevde at den tar vare på partiets røtter, kommunismen.

Dette er selvfølgelig temmelig løse refleksjoner, og jeg understreker at denne type ideologiske endringer ikke skjer raskt. Jeg tror selvfølgelig heller ikke på noen full tilbakevending til klassisk kommunisme, til det er nok den kinesiske erfaringen med Mao og hans vanstyre alt for grunnleggende negativ.

Endret 25.10.2015 18:37 av Graastein
blåball
26.10.2015 09:30
#2040

Endre
Lønnskostnader i KINA har steget en del mer , enn andre land i ASIA .

Selv USA begynner å nærme seg KINA i lønnskostnader .

Men nå , er ikke bare KINA en fremvoksende økonomi , men også " långiver til andre økonomier i Verden .
blåball
26.10.2015 09:52
#2041

Endre
Og en lavere Styrings rente i KINA kan sees i sammenheng med denne utviklingen ?
Videre Handelsavtaler mellom flere land i ASIA , er på gang ?

Større " regioner " for økonomisk samarbeid i Verden , gir også handel av varer og tjenester , ett mere preg av produksjon av råvarer til ferdige sluttprodukter , innenfor disse regioner .

Norsk Hydro har imidlertid sikret seg råvarer fra Brasil , for lange tider , godt gjort så langt........( Multinasjonale selskaper posisjonerer seg for mere konkuranse på råvaretilgang til gode priser , dernest til sluttprodukter med god fortjeneste ? )

Kan f.eks Afrika få ett økonomisk løft med Kinesisk Kapital ?

blåball
26.10.2015 10:03
#2042

Endre
I så fall er det på høy tid att fornybar energi , får en større plass i Global økonomi , da olje og gass er en begrenset ressurs på lengre sikt . Og det er vel ingen som vil ha oljepriser tilbake til 120 Dollar fatet eller mer i fremtiden ?
OldNick
31.10.2015 15:19
#17495

Endre
re. Graastein,

Interessante tanker.

Jeg er i stor grad enig, men vil i tillegg tro at den meget raske utbredelsen av moderne IT/internett-teknologi kan fremskynde endringer.

Også de store forurensingsproblemene som mange byer og regioner opplever kan fremskynde endringer raskere om ikke myndighetene greier å finne løsninger.

Og den sise nyhetene om opphevelsen av 1-barns regelen (se under) vil på sikt øke China's økonomiske og politiske styrke og betydning i verden, men her snakker man om en generasjon.
______

Som et tillegg til mitt innlegg #17334 lenger tilbake, så limer jeg inn igjen det hele (siste art).

China Consumes Mind-Boggling Amounts of Raw Materials

Jeff Desjardins, Visual Capitalist blog
Aug. 11, 2015






Størrelseorden for de viktigste mineral-industriene:
Betong er et ~20 mrd t/a marked world-wide
Kull er et ~8 mrd t/a marked world-wide
Olje er et ~4 mrd t/a marked world-wide
Stål er et ~1.5 mrd t/a marked world-wide
Al er et ~60 mill t/a marked world-wide
Cu er et ~20 mill t/a marked world-wide
Zn er et ~15 mill t/a marked world-wide
Ni er et ~2 mill t/a marked world-wide


[Min kommentar:

Vi har det siste året sett hvor risikabelt det er for en så stor industri som råvare-industriene at det er et land (= "1 kunde") som er så dominerende på kundesiden.

Ikke noe nytt, men diagrammet er illustrerende.]
______

Verdsettelsen av ulike børser world-wide.
Betydningen av børsene i China er relativt ubetydelig.




Per Sept. 2015
______

China ends one-child policy after 35 years

Government to allow all couples to have two children as 'response to an ageing population' and amid concerns over economy


Tom Phillips, Guardian
Oct. 29, 2015

China has scrapped its one-child policy, allowing all couples to have two children for the first time since draconian family planning rules were introduced more than three decades ago.

The announcement followed a four-day Communist party summit in Beijing where China's top leaders debated financial reforms and how to maintain growth at a time of heightened concerns about the economy.

China will "fully implement a policy of allowing each couple to have two children as an active response to an ageing population", the party said in a statement published by Xinhua, the official news agency. "The change of policy is intended to balance population development and address the challenge of an ageing population,"

Some celebrated the move as a positive step towards greater personal freedom in China. But human rights activists and critics said the loosening - which means the Communist party continues to control the size of Chinese families - did not go far enough.

"The state has no business regulating how many children people have," said William Nee, a Hong Kong-based activist for Amnesty International.

"If China is serious about respecting human rights, the government should immediately end such invasive and punitive controls over people's decisions to plan families and have children."

For months there has been speculation that Beijing was preparing to abandon the divisive family planning rule, which was introduced in 1980 because of fears of a population boom.

Demographers in and outside China have long warned that its low fertility rate - which experts say lies somewhere between 1.2 a

Endret 31.10.2015 15:20 av OldNick
Graastein
28.12.2015 14:36
#682

Endre
Mitt syn på Kina er nokså avgjørende for investeringsvalg for neste år. Kina med sin voldsomme vekst de siste 20 år har vært den viktige drivern på råvare og olje. Selv om de kinesiske myndighetene med pengepolitikk og andre virkemidler kan stimulere til økt vekst på kort sikt, tror jeg de fundamentale forhold i Kina gjør at landet kommer til å fortsette å overaske på nedsiden. Holder meg derfor fortsatt unna alt som har med råvarer å gjøre.
OldNick
14.01.2016 00:59
#17714

Endre
Det skrives mye om tumultene i kinesisk økonomi for tiden, noe mange får en uggen følelse ved å følge børsen dramatiske fall de siste dagene og ukene.

Her er 2 seriøse økonomers kommentarer om hva som skjer og kan skje fremover, og mulige konsekvenser for resten av verden.

The Chinese Economy's Great Wall

Mohamed El-Erian, Project-Syndicate
Jan. 11, 2016

Utdrag:
The recent decline in China's currency, the renminbi, which has fueled turmoil in Chinese stock markets and drove the government to suspend trading twice last week, highlights a major challenge facing the country: how to balance its domestic and international economic obligations. The approach the authorities take will have a major impact on the wellbeing of the global economy.

...in pursuing its domestic objectives, China risks inadvertently amplifying global financial instability. Specifically, markets worry that renminbi devaluation could "steal" growth from other countries, including those that have far more foreign debt and far less robust financial cushions than China, which maintains ample international reserves.

This concern speaks to the even more challenging balancing act that China must perform as it seeks to play the role in global economic governance that its economic weight warrants. After all, China is now the world's second-largest economy (and, by some non-market measures, the largest).

...

There will come a time when China's domestic and international responsibilities will again be relatively well aligned. But that time is not now; and, given the country's tricky ongoing structural transition, it probably will not come anytime soon. In the meantime, it seems likely that China will continue to feel compelled to place its domestic obligations first, but in a nuanced way aimed at avoiding large disruptive tipping points for the global economy. Whether that will be enough to avoid disorderly outcomes, however, is not totally assured.

mer på link
______

China Not Facing 'Cataclysmic' Economic Slow Down, Says Stiglitz

Bloomberg News
Jan. 11, 2016

Utdrag:
China isn't facing a "cataclysmic" economic slowdown and last week's market turmoil was more about badly designed stock market circuit breakers, said Nobel-prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.

"There's always been a gap between what's happening in the real economy and financial markets," said Stiglitz. "What's happening in China is a slowdown by all accounts. It's a slow process of slowing down. But it's not a cataclysmic" slowdown.

Stiglitz said the government's new focus on supply-side economic reforms could precipitate a deeper downturn if not accompanied by measures to boost demand. Policy makers plan supply-side reforms to deal with issues including overcapacity and excess labor in state-owned industries.

'Immersed Itself'

"The focus just on supply measures doesn't pick up what's happening in the global economy," said Stiglitz. "What's going on is a shortfall in global demand. China has immersed itself in this global economy. There are domestic things that are affecting it and exacerbating it, but if they don't have enough demand-side measures there could be a deeper downturn."

Stiglitz said the tumultuous start to 2016 supports his belief there's no reason to expect the global economy will be any stronger this year than in 2015. Even before the market turmoil erupted last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve was set to pause on further interest rates rises anyway because the "American economy is not back to health," he said.

mer på link

Endret 14.01.2016 00:59 av OldNick
OldNick
14.01.2016 01:01
#17715

Endre
Selv om eksporten falt i 2015, så tar China fortsatt andeler i global handel.

Og eksporten vris mot produkter med høyere verdi og større egenproduksjon.

There's Good News Buried in China's Export Drop

Julie Verhage, Bloomberg
Jan. 13, 2016

While Chinese exports shrunk for the first time in six years in 2015, some bright spots are buried beneath the otherwise dour headline number, according to research from Fielding Chen and Tom Orlik of Bloomberg Intelligence.

"Looking beyond that headline figure, there are signs that export competitiveness remains resilient, the share of domestic value added is growing and the export mix is shifting toward high-technology products," they said in a recent report. "All of that is positive for the 2016 outlook. Concerns about weak demand from emerging markets and data reliability cloud the picture."

mer på link
______

China's egne forecast over energiforbruk i 2016 er ihvertfall positive.

China sees energy consumption rising in 2016: Xinhua

Adam Rose, Reuters
Dec. 29, 2015

China expects its energy consumption to grow in 2016, the official Xinhua news agency of the world's largest energy consumer said on Tuesday.

China's apparent demand for crude oil will reach 550 million tonnes (11 million barrels per day) and apparent demand for natural gas will hit 205 billion cubic meters, Nur Bekri, head of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said, according to Xinhua.

Electricity consumption will rise to 5.7 trillion kilowatt-hours and coal consumption will be 3.96 billion tonnes.

Non-fossil fuels will also make up 13.2 percent of primary energy needs in 2016, up from 12 percent this year, while coal will fall to less than 62.6 percent from 64.4 percent, he said.

Natural gas will account for 6.2 percent, while non-fossil fuels including nuclear and renewables will account for 35.7 percent. Renewable power will account for 1.7 trillion kwh in 2016, with more than 20 gigawatts of wind and 15 GW of photovoltaic solar capacity being added.

Overall growth in energy consumption this year was its lowest since 1998, at 0.9 percent, he added.

This year, China will have imported 330 million tonnes (6.6 million bpd) of oil and 60 bcm of natural gas. Installed energy capacity will have reached 1.47 billion kilowatts, up 7.5 percent.

In principle, China will stop approving coal mining projects for three years starting in March, and aims to close more than 1,000 mines that have "lagged behind," Xinhua cited Nur Bekri as saying.

Crude oil production is expected to rise to 220 million tonnes (4.4 million bpd), even as global prices near 11-year lows. Natural gas production, including shale gas and coal-bed methane, is expected to rise to 140 bcm, he said.
Graastein
14.01.2016 22:17
#685

Endre
Interessant dette OldNick, men forskerne fra Blomberg bruker myndighetenes tall, og de peker selv på at det er usikkert hvor riktige disse er.
highlander
19.01.2016 10:35
#5430

Endre
Kinas økonomiske vekst var på 6,9 prosent i fjor. Det er den svakeste veksten siden 1990.

Myndighetene slapp natt til tirsdag tall for den økonomiske utviklingen i fjerde kvartal i fjor, og for året som helhet.

Selv om veksten er lavere enn på lang tid, er den i tråd med myndighetenes mål om en vekst på «rundt 7 prosent» i løpet av året.

Tallene er også på linje med det mange analytikere hadde ventet på forhånd.

Veksten i årets siste kvartal var på 6,8 prosent sammenlignet med samme periode året før og marker også en bunnotering: Den laveste kvartalsmessige veksten siden første kvartal i 2009.

Sammen med veksttallene slapp det kinesiske statistikkbyrået også en rekke andre nøkkeltall for den økonomiske utviklingen. Tallene viser at den kinesiske industriproduksjonen økte med 6,1 prosent, mens detaljhandelen hadde en vekst på 10,7 prosent.

Investeringene i fast investert kapital - en viktig drivkraft i økonomien - økte med 10 prosent i løpet av året, lavere enn forventningene i markedet.

Eiendomsinvesteringene falt med 1 prosent i 2015 sammenlignet med året før.
Graastein
20.01.2016 20:20
#686

Endre
De fleste som har gått i dybden og har analysert tallene fra myndighetene er rimelig sikre på at de
er bøff.
Beins
04.02.2016 09:30
#8625

Endre
Fra dagens DN:

Kinesiske banker har ekspandert kraftig med store utlån til eiendomssektoren og zombie-selskaper som taper penger. Det kan være et tidsspørsmål før Kina står foran en av tidenes største bankkriser.

Morten Iversen
Publisert: 04.02.2016 - 05:37 Oppdatert: 04.02.2016 - 06:20
Investoren Kyle Bass hos Hayman Capital Management var blant de første som identifiserte problemer i den amerikanske boliglånsmarkedet før 2008. Dette tjente han gode penger på.

I 2011 spådde han at den japanske yenkursen ville falle kraftig når landets sentralbank ville komme med nye tiltak for å støtte opp rundt regjeringens økonomiske tiltak. Han fikk rett. Den japanske yenkursen falt fra 78 til 120 mot en dollar på kort tid.

Venter store tap

Nå er det den kinesiske banksektoren Bass ser kommende problemer for. Den kinesiske banksektoren har vokst til å ha en forvaltningskapital på rundt 35000 milliarder dollar - tre ganger større enn Kinas bruttonasjonalprodukt.

Kyle Bass mener at bankene vil bli tvunget til å bokføre store tap på utlån om kort tid. Når dette skjer må myndighetene komme raskt på banen med frisk kapital. Dette er penger som vil komme fra valutareservene.

De kinesiske valutareservene har falt fra over 3900 milliarder dollar i juni 2014 til 3300 milliarder dollar ved utgangen av 2015. Det har vært stor kapitalutførsel på rundt 100 milliarder dollar i måneden fra Kina siden ifjor høst.

I et intervju med CNBC sier Bass at den kinesiske økonomien er avhengig av å opprettholde valutareserver på minimum 2700 milliarder dollar for å kunne ha normal drift for økonomien. Dette skal være basert på anbefalinger fra Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF).

- De vil nå dette beløpet i løpet av de neste fem månedene. Det er mange som tror de kan bruke fra valutareservene inntil det ikke er noe igjen. Det stemmer ikke. De har kun noen få måneder igjen før de er inne i et virkelig farlig område, sier han til CNBC.

- På krisenivåer

Like etter årtusenskiftet ble kinesiske banker tilført frisk kapital og fjernet store tapsbomber fra balansene i forkant av delprivatisering og børsnotering. Den kinesiske økonomien har hatt en gjennomsnittlig vekst på rundt ni prosent de siste 15 årene.

Banksektoren har gått fra å tildele statskontrollerte banker kapital til å konkurrere om kundene. Dagens eiendomsmarked har vokst opp de siste 15 årene med massiv nybygging - som regel finansiert av storbankene.

- Altfor få er opptatt av den kinesiske banksektoren. Det vil endres i år. Industriproduksjonen er på krisenivåer og Kina hadde den laveste nominelle veksten i bruttonasjonalproduktet på 40 år i fjerde kvartal, sier han.

Kinesisk devaluering

Han tviler ikke på at den kinesiske sentralbanken vil klare å tilføre bankene nødvendig kapital, men han tror dette vil føre til en kraftig devaluering av den kinesiske yuanen.

- Når du ser på ubalansene og størrelsen på økonomien deres vil det bli en devaluering på 30 til 40 prosent til slutt, sier han til CNBC.

Han er ikke den første som har kommet med dommedagsprofetier for den kinesiske økonomien. De fleste som har satset penger mot Kina har tapt stort. I intervjuet sier Bass at det er satset milliarder av dollar på å shorte den kinesiske yuanen - en metode som gjør at investorer vil tjene penger hvis valutakursen faller.

- Dette er ikke en overdrivelse og det er ingen fartsdump for den kinesiske økonomien. Dette dreier seg om feilallokering av kapital og at konsekvensene viser seg. Du kan ikke la banksektoren vokse med 1000 prosent på ti år uten å ha en runde med tap. Og valutaen din kan ikke forbli sterk hvis du må foreta justeringer i bankbalansene, sier han.

Markedene
skipper*
04.02.2016 09:39
#12009

Endre
I intervjuet sier Bass at det er satset milliarder av dollar på å shorte den kinesiske yuanen - en metode som gjør at investorer vil tjene penger hvis valutakursen faller.

.

Investors Shorting the Yuan

Endret 04.02.2016 09:39 av skipper*
Beins
05.02.2016 10:44
#8631

Endre
Mer om Kinas store utfordringer innen bank. De skyver på ting og prøver å reparere, men til slutt vil det smelle grunnet de enorme låneopptakene. Dette ligner en typisk boom and bust syklus tatt ut av lærebøkene til von Mieses og Hayek.


- Frykter det vil rakne

De kinesiske bankene mistenkes for å skjule store potensielle gjeldsbomber. Det er ikke første gang. Myndighetene har tidligere foretatt redningsoperasjoner av storbankene - senest like ved årtusenskiftet da de ble tilført flere hundre milliarder dollar. Som sjefanalytiker for Kina hos ratingselskapet Fitch i 2011 advarte Charlene Chu mot den uregulerte delen av den kinesiske bank- og finanssektoren og store låneforpliktelser. Myndighetene ble tvunget til å rydde opp og flyttet risikoen over til bankene. Hun mener det ligger store tapsbomber i bankenes utlånsporteføljer.

Den regulerte delen av finanssektoren har økt utlån fra 9000 milliarder dollar i 2009 til rundt 30000 milliarder dollar ved utgangen av 2016. «Verden har aldri tidligere sett en kredittvekst i et slikt omfang. Vi tror dette har påvirket alle prisene på aktiva i verden - direkte eller indirekte. Dette er grunnen til at markedet er så nervøst; det frykter at kredittproblemene i Kina vil rakne», skriver Chu, som nå er analytiker hos Autonomous Research i Hong Kong i en epost til New York Times.

Hun anslår at 22 prosent av Kinas totale lån vil være i mislighold ved slutten av 2016. Hvis dette stemmer vil det utgjøre 6600 milliarder dollar. Av dette vil 4400 milliarder dollar kunne være tap for bankene. Andre anslag ligger på rundt 5000 milliarder dollar. - Som en skremt hjort Førsteamanuensis Christopher Balding ved Peking University har foretatt en analyse som viser at åtte prosent av alle lån gitt til næringslivet har problemer. Han avviser ikke at det kan være høyere. Balding frykter at myndighetene ikke har den fulle oversikten. - Min oppfatning er at kinesiske beslutningstakere er som en hjort som har forvillet seg inn på veien. Den blir skremt når den ser frontlyktene på en bil. De vet virkelig ikke hva de skal gjøre, sier Balding til New York Times.
Graastein
05.02.2016 23:59
#689

Endre
Jeg leser jevnlig Baldings blogg. Blir spennende å se om myndighetene snart sparker han ut av landet.
Graastein
05.02.2016 23:59
#690

Endre
Balding er meget frittalende.
blåball
06.02.2016 10:06
#2259

Endre
Er det ikke slik att mye av den såkalte kapitalflukten fra KINA , også blir investert i utenlandske foretak / bedrifter / Amerikanske Statsobligasjoner / Dollar , dernest også utvidelse av " multinasjonale Kinesiske selskaper " både i ASIA og ellers i Verden ? ( OPERA i Norge blir neste , oljeselskaper også ? ).

Indonesia , India har også god vekst , og fortsatte nye infrastruktur prosjekter legge grunnlag for ett sterkt Asia økonomisk sett fremover .

For lave oljepriser er ikke bra over for mange år , kapital disiplin hos oljeselskapene er stor nå , stålpriser går ned , og Dolleren og rentene i USA blir satt på hold .

OPEC og Russland med tiltak for å stabelisere oljeprisen , ligger i kortene .
blåball
06.02.2016 10:27
#2260

Endre
Med andre ord er dagens utvikling " made for KINA " og i litt mindre grad : " made in KINA ".

KINA bruker også gradvis mer gass som energi , på bekostning av kullindustri og bruk der .

Olje er KINA storforbruker av , i en gradvis mer forbruker rettet økonomi .
highlander
17.02.2016 07:54
#5684

Endre
Marketwatch: China's central bank injects another 10 billion yuan into system

China's central bank injected an additional 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) in short-term loans into the banking system Wednesday, in a move aimed at ensuring liquidity after the Lunar New Year.

The People's Bank of China pumped 10 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements into the money market, its third such operation this week.

It injected a total of 40 billion yuan via similar tools in the previous two days. A net of 595 billion yuan worth of reserve repos will mature this week, according to Wind Information.

In addition, China's central bank set the yuan weaker Wednesday, shifting the daily U.S. dollar-yuan benchmark upward to 6.5237 from yesterday's 6.5130, representing a 0.16% depreciation of the yuan. The adjustment of Wednesday's yuan midpoint was the second in a row that weakened the currency.
Graastein
22.02.2016 20:17
#691

Endre
Det strammer seg til, ser det ut som:
https://www.chinafile.com/conversation/rule-fear

Dette er en bra blogg.
Graastein
23.02.2016 23:48
#692

Endre
Kina har egentlig et handelsunderskudd, hevder Balding:

http://www.baldingsworld.com

På grunn av triksing med faktura og rapportering til myndighetene er den reelle importen større enn de offisielle tall.

Her er visstnok også noe av forklaringen på den voldsomme kapitalstrømmen ut av landet.
highlander
24.02.2016 10:38
#5739

Endre
Ser på Xi at Barclays er bekymret for valutaflommen ut av Kina og tror en betydelig devaluering er et alternativ.

I så fall antas dette føre til valutakrig og en betydelig risiko for de globale finansmarkedene. Barclays mener at risikoen for slik devaluering er økende...
highlander
25.02.2016 09:41
#5743

Endre
For å sette Kina i perspektiv:

I løpet av årene 2011 og 2012, altså to år, produserte Kina mer sement enn USA gjorde under hele det tjuende århundre.

Analytikere anslår at mer enn 60 prosent av banklån i Kina er direkte/indirekte knyttet til eiendomsmarkedet...
Beins
22.03.2016 18:44
#8809

Endre

Johan Hammerstrøm(E24) Publisert: 09:24 - 22.03.2016
- Risikoen for at det kan gå galt, er veldig, veldig stor, sier Kina-ekspert Ole André Kjennerud hos DNB Markets.

Grunnen til Kjenneruds og mange andre økonomers voksende uro er at gjeldsveksten til Kina nå har krysset et finansielt Rubicon.

Den samlede gjeldsbelastningen for staten, privat sektor og husholdningene i Kina er nå på over 250 prosent av bruttonasjonalproduktet. Alle andre land som har opplevd en like raskt gjeldsvekst opp til dette nivået, har like etterpå blitt styrtet ut i større økonomiske kriser.

Gjeldsgraden i seg selv er ikke det alarmerende, til sammenlikning hadde Norge en total gjeldsbelastning på 244 prosent av BNP i 2014, men Kina har de siste årene opplevd en nesten årlig fordobling av den totale gjelden.


I selskap med konkursland
Listen over land som har hatt samme eksplosive gjeldsøking som det Kina nå har, er ikke lystig lesning:

Spania og USA rett før finanskrisen i 2008, Thailand før den asiatiske kollapsen i 1997, Japan på starten av det tapte tiåret i 1989 og Argentina like før landet gikk dundrende konkurs i 2001.


http://e24.no/utenriks/kina/kina-balanserer-paa-kanten-av-gjeldsstupet-risikoen-for-at-det-kan-gaa-galt-er-veldig-veldig-stor/23643710
OldNick
28.03.2016 12:21
#17920

Endre
Fra E24-artikkelen linket inn i beins innlegg over:

Risikoen for at det kan gå galt, er veldig, veldig stor

Gjeldsveksten i Kina er blitt rekordhøy. Alle andre land som har opplevd det samme har gjennomgått en krise like etterpå






I dårlig selskap: Kina er i ferd med å ta igjen en rekke historiske eksempler på land som har opplevd alvorlige gjeldskriser. Grafen viser forandring i gjeldsnivå som andel av BNP.

Endret 28.03.2016 12:21 av OldNick
highlander
26.04.2016 10:27
#6112

Endre
Kinesiske myndigheter prøver nå å bremse spekulasjonen i råvarer.

Innføringer av begrensninger i aksjehandel har gjort at innenlandske investorer har flyttet kapital til råvarespekulasjon med følge at sterk økning i kontraktshandel og oppgang i priser. Råvarebørsene må nå øke transaksjonskostnadene og marginer samt sette grenser for daglig på handel på visse type kontrakter.

(Kilde: Financial Times/Xi)
OldNick
27.06.2016 23:31
#18172

Endre
Hva betyr Brexit for China?


Brexit: The View from China

With Britain voting to leave the European Union, China should be prepared for globalization setbacks.

Xu Sitao, Caixin
June 24, 2016
highlander
12.07.2016 09:26
#6238

Endre
Ni av verdens femten største finansinstitusjoner og banker mener at den kinesiske staten må komme på banen med en redningspakke til de kinesiske storbankene innen to år grunnet den store andelen misligholdte lån. Misligholdet estimeres til over 500 milliarder dollar. (Kilde: Bloomberg News)
highlander
09.08.2016 16:44
#6303

Endre
Ser i DN at Fitch mener at Kina vil ha stort behov for å bygge nye boliger, til tross for at det finnes flere tomme nybygg i landet. De fleste andre som har laget analyser på det kinesiske boligmarkedet har derfor et helt annet syn.

Kredittvurderingsbyrået er imidlertid mer optimistisk, og begrunner dette med at de tror at 40 % av behovet fremover vil komme fra en stor andel bygninger bygget før 1990 som vil bli revet.
OldNick
09.08.2016 18:10
#18219

Endre
En litt datert blog-artikkel, men såvidt interessant at den bør inn.

Where Does Beijing's Pollution Come From?

David Wertime, David M. Barreda, Chinafile.com
Feb. 3, 2013

In January alone, a stifling and noxious haze twice enveloped the Chinese capital of Beijing, pushing air quality indexes literally off the charts and inciting widespread outrage both on-line and off. Pollution-and the outcry surrounding it-has gotten so severe that, according to The New York Times, Beijing has taken emergency measures which "include temporarily shutting down more than 100 factories and ordering one-third of government vehicles off the streets."

But China's Web users continue to search for answers. Sohu Business recently released an infographic which seeks to explain the origin of Beijing's airborne pollutants, on Sina Weibo, a Chinese micro-blogging platform. Tea Leaf Nation translates.

Although the image's inclusion of Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in China's territory are sure to rankle some readers, its core insight is a powerful one. It points a finger squarely at China's state-run oil companies, in particular their failure to invest in desulphurization. The graphic has been shared by more than 10,000 Weibo users since its January 29 release-and on February 2, oil giant Sinopec announced plans to upgrade twelve of its refining facilities by the end of 2013.










Endret 09.08.2016 18:20 av OldNick
Beins
29.09.2016 22:23
#8891

Endre
Intervju med eiendomsmagnat Wang Jianlin:

(DN) Eiendomsprisene øker igjen i de 70 største byene etter å ha falt ifjor. I Shanghai, Shenzhen og Beijing økte prisene med mellom 20 og 40 prosent i august sammenlignet med ifjor.

- Jeg ser ingen god løsning på dette problemet. Myndighetene har forsøkt å komme opp med alle mulige tiltak, blant annet å begrense tilgangen på lån, men det har ikke fungert, sier han.

Den kinesiske banksektoren er nedsyltet i skjulte misligholdte lån, blant annet gitt til eiendomsutviklere og boligkjøpere. Kredittvurderingsselskapet Fitch skriver i en ny rapport at misligholdte lån kan være 10 ganger høyere enn offisielle estimater - inntil 21 prosent av samlede utlån.

Det internasjonale pengefondet (IMF) advarer om at en «uryddig gjeldsnedbygging» i den kinesiske økonomien kan føre til smitte over til verdensøkonomien. IMF utelukker ikke en hard økonomisk landing for den kinesiske økonomien.

- Problemet er at den kinesiske økonomien ikke har nådd bunnen. Hvis det foretas en for rask nedbygging av gjeld vil økonomien lide mer. Vi må vente til økonomien er tilbake på sporet før det gradvis foretas en gjeldsreduksjon, sier Wang Jianlin.

Capital Economics anslår at det er gitt rundt 30000 milliarder kroner i direkte lån til den kinesiske eiendomssektoren.

- Selv om vi ofte undervurderer statens evner til å redde banksektoren betyr ikke det at vi skal overse kredittrisiko. Kinesiske husholdninger er ikke så gjeldsbelastede. Vi er mer opptatt av selskapenes gjeldsbelastning, sier analyseselskapets Kina-økonom Julian Evans-Pritchard til BBC.

Dobbeltsjekket prisen

I de største kinesiske byene er det fortsatt høy etterspørsel etter boliger. Andre steder står hele boligkomplekser tomme som spøkelsesbyer.

I forrige uke ble det solgt «hybler» på mellom 5,7 og 7,5 kvadratmeter i Shenzhen for over en million kroner stykket, ifølge Guangzhou Daily.

Toalett og kjøkken står ved siden av hverandre. Dette gir en kvadratmeterpris på 170.000 kroner.

Endret 29.09.2016 22:23 av Beins
OldNick
13.10.2016 10:23
#18426

Endre
Det har vært betydelig bevegelser i noen valutaer de siste månedene.

Chinesiske Yuan er en av disse.



Gamle høyder: Ikke på seks år har den kinesiske valutaen vært like svak mot amerikanske dollar.


Dette har ikke skjedd på seks år

Den kinesiske valutaen er på sitt svakeste siden høsten 2010. Ekspert ser fem grunner til at yuan-fallet ikke er over


John T. Aarø, Asgeir Aga Nilsen, E24.no
12.10.2016

På den første handelsdagen etter en ukelang høytid i Kina, skjedde det.

For en amerikansk dollar måtte man ut med mer enn 6,70 yuan, nærmere bestemt 6,72 yuan.

Dette er sett på som et symbolsk viktig nivå, og det har vært forventninger om at Kinas sentralbank kunne komme til å forsvare valutaen dersom yuan nådde 6,70 mot dollar.

Det at ingen grep ble tatt i etterkant av svekkelsen, gjør at Asia-sjefanalytiker Amy Zhuang i Nordea Markets mener at nivået «ikke er en ubrytelig terskel sentralbanken vil forsvare for enhver pris».

Hun ser for seg at den kinesiske valutaen vil svekkes til 6,75 prosent om tre måneders sikt, men tror samtidig at sentralbanken vil stå rede til å ta grep dersom valutaen svekkes kraftig.

Det skapte stor ståhei i finansmarkedet da kinesiske myndigheter i august i fjor besluttet å løsne sitt harde grep om kinesiske yuan (se faktaboks).

Kapitalstrømmer svekker yuan

Asia-økonom Ole André Kjennerud i DNB Markets er ikke overbevist om at 6,70-nivået har noen større betydning ut over den rent symbolske.

- Jeg ser noen har hevdet dette er slags terskelbarriere, og at det åpner opp for at det kan gå mye ned. Men jeg vet ikke om det har noe større viktighet enn den symbolske verdien, sier seniorøkonom Ole André Kjennerud i DNB Markets til E24.

Kjennerud peker på både politiske årsaker og mer markedsmessige årsaker til svekkelsen i kinesernes valuta.

Fellesnevneren er at kapitalstrømmene har blitt mer negative. Det skyldes igjen oppkjøp i utlandet og tilbakebetaling av selskapenes valutagjeld, som har vært ønsket av myndighetene.

- Men fordi disse strømmene etter hvert har blitt så store har det dratt med seg en rekke spekulative strømmer. Og det har ikke vært ønsket av myndighetene at det spekuleres i kursen, sier han.

Allerede har Kina tatt grep for å forsvare yuanen.

- Spesielt i år har vi sett masse intervensjoner i valutamarkedet, som har gjort at kursen ikke har svekket seg mer og raskere. Enten er sentralbanken selv inne og kjøper yuan, eller så gir den direktiver, den ber kommersielle banker, om å kjøpe yuan, sier Kjennerud, som har en prognose om at yuan vil svekke seg til 6,90 mot dollar på 12 måneders sikt.

mer på link

Endret 13.10.2016 10:23 av OldNick
highlander
20.10.2016 01:45
#6497

Endre
BNP-veksten i Kina i 3.kvartal ble oppgitt til 6,7 % som viser at økonomien er i god rute til å nå vekstmålet på minst 6,5 % vekst. Nordea Markets mener dette ikke er bærekraftig. «Det kinesiske veksten for tredje kvartal var som forventet. Den var støttet av hissige tiltak, noe som ikke vil være bærekraftig. Forholdene vil begynne å forverres mot slutten av året på grunn av mindre støtte og en nedkjøling i boligmarkedet. Svekkelsen i veksten vil fortsette inn i neste år», skriver senioranalytiker med ansvar for Asia hos Nordea, Amy Yuan Zhuang i en morgenrapport, ifølge Xi.
OldNick
23.10.2016 15:36
#18458

Endre
China facing full-blown banking crisis, world's top financial watchdog warns

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, Telegraph, UK
19.09.2016

China has failed to curb excesses in its credit system and faces mounting risks of a full-blown banking crisis, according to early warning indicators released by the world's top financial watchdog.

A key gauge of credit vulnerability is now three times over the danger threshold and has continued to deteriorate, despite pledges by Chinese premier Li Keqiang to wean the economy off debt-driven growth before it is too late.

The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly report that China's "credit to GDP gap" has reached 30.1, the highest to date and in a different league altogether from any other major country tracked by the institution. It is also significantly higher than the scores in East Asia's speculative boom on 1997 or in the US subprime bubble before the Lehman crisis.

Studies of earlier banking crises around the world over the last sixty years suggest that any score above ten requires careful monitoring. The credit to GDP gap measures deviations from normal patterns within any one country and therefore strips out cultural differences.

It is based on work the US economist Hyman Minsky and has proved to be the best single gauge of banking risk, although the final denouement can often take longer than assumed. Indicators for what would happen to debt service costs if interest rates rose 250 basis points are also well over the safety line.

China's total credit reached 255pc of GDP at the end of last year, a jump of 107 percentage points over eight years. This is an extremely high level for a developing economy and is still rising fast .

Outstanding loans have reached $28 trillion, as much as the commercial banking systems of the US and Japan combined. The scale is enough to threaten a worldwide shock if China ever loses control. Corporate debt alone has reached 171pc of GDP, and it is this that is keeping global regulators awake at night.

The BIS said there are ample reasons to worry about the health of world's financial system. Zero interest rates and bond purchases by central banks have left markets acutely sensitive to the slightest shift in monetary policy, or even a hint of a shift.

"There has been a distinctly mixed feel to the recent rally - more stick than carrot, more push than pull," said Claudio Borio, the BIS's chief economist. "This explains the nagging question of whether market prices fully reflect the risks ahead."

Bond yields in the major economies normally track the growth rate of nominal GDP, but they are now far lower. Roughly $10 trillion is trading at negative rates, and this has spread into corporate debt. This historical anomaly is underpinning richly-valued stock markets at time when profit growth has collapsed.

The risk is a violent spike in yields if the pattern should revert to norm, setting off a flight from global bourses. We have had a foretaste of this over recent days. The other grim possibility is that ultra-low yields are instead pricing in a slump in nominal GDP for years to come - effectively a trade depression - and that would be even worse for equities.

"It is becoming increasingly evident that central banks have been overburdened for far too long," said Mr Borio.

The BIS said one troubling development is a breakdown in the relationship between interest rates and currencies in global markets, what it describes as a violation of the iron law of "covered interest parity".

The concern is that banks are displaying a highly defensive reflex, and could pull back abruptly as they did during the Lehman crisis once they smell fear. "The banking sector may become an amplifier of shocks rather than an absorber of shocks," said Hyun Song Shin, the BI
blåball
24.10.2016 09:50
#2891

Endre
Stadig større og bedre utviklet infrastruktur i KINA og Asia , lange veier med mye bedre standard mellom landene i Asia , mer flyplasser og økt turisme og økt næringsliv , bedre levestandard gir økt oljeforbruk i mange år fremover .

Kina bygger flere olje lagre og ekspoterer mer olje enn noen gang til Asia region . Samtidig produserer KINA stadig mindre olje.

OPEC sørger da også for moderate oljepriser fremover . Vinn situasjon for Kina og Opec .

En fremtidig oljepris kan da settes til 70 Dollar fatet , i ett fremtidig oljemarked .
highlander
27.10.2016 15:58
#6533

Endre
IMF anser kredittveksten i Kina som svært høy:

Kreditt som andel av BNP har steget fra 150 % til over 200% de siste 5 år. Iht IMF's undersøkelser har historisk 38 av 43 økonomier (eller 88 %) hvor dette forholdstallet har steget mer enn 30% på 5 år opplevd finanskrise, kraftige fall i BNP-veksten eller begge deler. (Kilde: FA/Xi)

Endret 27.10.2016 15:58 av highlander
highlander
25.11.2016 03:42
#6622

Endre
Kina sitter på et trumfkort som gjør det vanskelig for Donald Trump å igangsette sine trusler om tøffe handelsrestriksjoner.

Kina står nemlig for 95 % av verdens leveranser av såkalte sjeldne jordmetaller som er nøkkelkomponenter i produkter som mobiltelefoner, elbiler, vindturbiner, raketter og en rekke andre høyteknologiske produkter. Skulle Kina stanse slike leveranser til USA som svar på handelsrestriksjoner ville USA få store problemer. (Kilde: di.se/Xi)

I tillegg sitter de på masse amerikansk gjeld, og kan virkelig lage store problemer for de amerikanske finansmarkedene om Trump ypper til handelskrig...
highlander
02.12.2016 01:28
#6643

Endre
For kinesiske småinvestorer, som er villige til å ta en høy risiko, har råvaremarkedet blitt en ny favoritt. Prisen på jernmalm har i løpet av et knapt år steget fra nesten 50 dollar for et tonn til over 80 dollar på mandag.

De siste døgnet har imidlertid prisene på jernmalm, stål, kopper, sink og aluminium falt kraftig.

Årsaken er Kina. Dalian Commodity Exchange har nemlig økt egenkapitalkravene ved marginhandel for kinesiske råvareinvestorer som investerer i råvarer - for å unngå nye bobler. (Kilde: DN/Xi)
skipper*
02.12.2016 08:41
#12377

Endre
.
Chinese TV
Hoder nå på å bli verdens beste TV kanal for internasjonal nyheter
OldNick
03.01.2017 12:53
#18687

Endre
President Xi har åpnet første toget på den "moderne Silkeveien", som kan gå fra China helt til London (hvis ønskelig, vet ikke hvor mange togbytter som må til dog).


China to London Freight Train Kicked Off as Xi Boosts Trade

Bloomberg News
03.01.2017
highlander
07.01.2017 15:47
#6776

Endre
Kina forsøker å forsvare valutaen med alle midler. Det kan ramme verdens aksjemarkeder og råvareøkonomier hardt. Ingen tror at det kinesiske valutaen ikke vil svekkes og alle forsøker derfor å få ut penger fra landet iht analysesjef Anne Stevenson-Yang hos J Capital Research. Stevenson-Yang tror at myndigheten etter hvert blir nødt til å la valutaen flyte fritt pga de raskt fallende valutareservene selv om det vil ødelegge vekstmulighetene og føre til krasj på aksjemarkedene. Spørsmålet er når. (Kilde: DN/Xi)
skipper*
28.01.2017 08:23
#12456

Endre
Vil gale som gal

De som er født i hanens tegn er kjent for å være modige, selvsikre, eventyrlystne og være risikovillige.

- Dette er egenskaper som investorer garantert trenger når de skal forsøke seg på et marked som Kina, skriver forvalter Matthew Vaight hos M & G Global Emerging Markets Fund i en rapport.

Analytikere som dekker Kina har de siste dagene publisert rapporter, spådommer og analyser hvor de legger til side de finansanalytiske kriteriene og tar i bruk den tradisjonelle kinesiske kalenderen.

«Vi ser betydelig oppsidepotensial i kinesiske aksjer i hanens år i 2017. Vi anbefaler investorer om å posisjonere seg for en hane som vil gale som en «galning». Husk at Kina-kartet ser ut som en hane», skriver de to Deutsche Bank-strategene Yuliang Chang og Joseph Huo i en rapport.

Deutsche Bank anbefaler investeringer innenfor finans, energi og industri i Kina i hanens år.

Credit Suisse er av samme oppfatning og mener at bransjer som tilhører den «gamle økonomien» i Kina er å foretrekke fremfor teknologi og tjenesteytende sektor.
OldNick
25.02.2017 09:02
#18861

Endre
China skifter ut topp-økonomer (posisjoner).

Og samtidig styrker president Xi Jinping posisjonen sin.

He Lifeng appointed NDRC director

Xinhua
24.02.2017

Beijing - He Lifeng was appointed director of the National Development and Reform Commission, replacing Xu Shaoshi, China's top legislature said Friday.

Zhang Jun was named Minister of Justice to replace Wu Aiying.

Zhong Shan was appointed Commerce Minister to replace Gao Hucheng.

The appointments were announced at the closing meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee, which opened Wednesday.
______

Bloomberg's vurdering

China Promotes Former Xi Colleagues in Economic Team Revamp

He Lifeng, who oversaw One Belt One Road, taking over NDRC

Zhong Shan, a deputy to Xi in Zhejiang, is commerce minister


Bloomberg News
24.02.2017

China chose former associates of President Xi Jinping to lead the commerce ministry and top economic planning body, shaking up his economic team as trade tensions rise with the U.S.

He Lifeng was appointed director of the National Development and Reform Commission, which sets macroeconomic policy, according to a statement released after the standing committee session of the National People's Congress on Friday. Zhong Shan will lead the Ministry of Commerce, it said.

He was the third-highest ranking member of the NDRC, overseeing Xi's signature "One Belt, One Road" initiative to build an intercontinental web of infrastructure and trade links with China. Before moving to NDRC, He was deputy party chief of the northern port city of Tianjin.

He's ties to the president date back to the mid-1980s, when he ran the fiscal affairs of Xiamen while Xi was deputy mayor of the southeastern port. He was among a handful of guests invited to the low-key wedding in 1987 when Xi and People's Liberation Army singer Peng Liyuan tied the knot, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Zhong served as the Ministerial-level international trade representative and vice commerce minister before the promotion. He previously oversaw international trade negotiations and anti-monopoly investigations.

China Hardliners

Zhong became deputy governor of Zhejiang province in 2003 and worked under Xi, the then-party chief. In 2008, he went to Beijing to assume the post of vice commerce minister, and then added a new role of China's trade representative in 2013.

In another move, Ding Xuedong, chairman and chief executive officer of China Investment Corp., the nation's $810 billion sovereign wealth fund, has stepped down, according to a person familiar with the matter. He left for another job, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing personnel issues.

China's exports have remained subdued as soft global demand weighed on sales. Last year, the country's trade surplus decreased for the first time since 2011. In the meantime, it has faced increasing trade disputes across the globe, and failed to obtain "market economy status" from developed countries 15 years after joining the World Trade Organization.

In his new role, Zhong will be among officials dealing with potential U.S. counterparts of Wilbur Ross, Trump's nominee for commerce secretary, Robert Lighthizer, his pick for U.S. trade representative, and trade adviser Peter Navarro -- all hardliners on China.

Endret 25.02.2017 09:07 av OldNick
highlander
28.02.2017 14:07
#6982

Endre
Dette er vel bull...? I hvert fall kan det gi bidrag til BNP på noe sikt... :)

China considers baby bonus for couples to have second child
blåball
28.02.2017 15:26
#3213

Endre
Det er mega bull for Norge også , mer turister og økt handel , ny handelsavtale .
India og Kina er i god vekst , ASIA som kontinent øker forbruket av energi , gass og olje .
OldNick
17.04.2017 13:36
#19012

Endre
Skal vi tro kinesiske myndigheter, vokste økonomien med 6.9% i Q1-2017

Dette er høyeste veksten på 5 kvartaler iflg. Bloomberg.

Og egentlig fantastiske tall, skal vi tro dem (og noen er skeptiske til hvor gode de er).

China's Economy Accelerates as Retail, Investment Pick Up
Bloomberg News


- Credit surge fuels stronger investment and industrial activity
- Faster growth is a very positive signal for global growth: IHS


Bloomberg
17.04.2017

China's economy accelerated for a second-straight quarter as investment picked up, retail sales rebounded and factory output strengthened amid robust credit growth and further strength in property markets.

Gross domestic product increased 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 6.8 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. It was the first back-to-back acceleration in seven years.



Other indicators released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics showed:

- Fixed-asset investment excluding rural areas expanded 9.2 percent for the first three months, accelerating from 8.1 percent growth last year
- Retail sales increased 10.9 percent from a year earlier in March, compared with a median estimate of 9.7 percent in a Bloomberg survey
- Industrial output rose 7.6 percent last month from a year earlier, compared with an estimated 6.3 percent rise




mer på link, bl.a. en Bloomberg-video

Endret 17.04.2017 13:38 av OldNick
highlander
19.04.2017 10:56
#7131

Endre
Kina hadde sterk vekst i første kvartal, men Ole André Kjennerud i DNB Markets tror de fleste positive driverne nå er i ferd med å gå i revers. Fire av oppsvingets fem drivere er på vei inn i revers, argumenterer han i et notat. - Det gjelder især finanspolitikken, i og med at målet for investeringene er tatt ned i 2017 enn i 2016, og pengepolitikken, sier han. (Kilde: FA/Xi)



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