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Norsk Hydro III

Det er nok nedsalg fra investorer som deltok i emisjonen, og pynting av fondsporteføljen fra enkelte fondsforvaltere. Det ser ikke pent ut å ha Nhy med negativ avkastning i porteføljen over nyttår, når børsen ellers har steget.
I tillegg kan det jo være litt skattemotiverte nedsalg.

Tipper Nhy kommer kraftig bilbake fra slutten av desember og ut på nyåret.
Kjøpte i dag, og kommer til å kjøpe mer til midten av måneden.

Mvh tybring

Ok men alt i alt så gikk jo d meste ned i dag.
Tenker også vi får en pen stigning men kanskje ikke før i romjula.
Aksjen er jo passe traust så spørsmålet blir om man skulle satset på noe snnet som har ramlet mye i år og som mest sansynlig kommer til å synke videre ned når d skattemotiverte salget starter.
Et godt eksempel et SBX.
Kanskje vi ser 30 tallet ila de par første ukene i januar

Det er "håp i hangande snøre", som de sier.

Ihvertfall i følge Rusal, om man har litt is i magen.

Rusal Sees 2017 Aluminum Deficit Exceeding 2 Million Tons

By Yuliya Fedorinova, Bloomberg
Dec. 4, 2013

Output of aluminum outside China will trail demand by 2.4 million metric tons in 2017, eroding stockpiles and reversing a decline in prices, said United Co. Rusal, the largest producer of the metal.

"We already see the aluminum market falling into deficit due to curtailments and strong consumption," Deputy Chief Executive Officer Oleg Mukhamedshin said in an interview in Moscow. "Rising aluminum premiums are a good sign of this. We expect the market deficit, excluding China, will only grow until at least 2017 due to increasing demand and capacity cuts."

Prices for aluminum, used in products from beverage cans to aircraft, have slumped 16 percent in 2013, heading for the second annual drop in three years. The metal is trading at the lowest level since 2009, with stockpiles of aluminum stored in warehouses tracked by the London Metal Exchange close to the record reached in July. The aluminum price declined 0.2 percent yesterday to $1,739 per ton.

Rusal has joined Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO) in reducing production. The Russian company intends to cut 324,733 tons in 2013 compared with 2012 levels and 647,504 tons in 2014, it said in October. Demand is forecast to rise by 6 percent to 6.5 percent annually from 2013 through 2017, as the impact of any new plants is more than outweighed by increased consumption and shutdowns, Mukhamedshin said.

The result is a deficit, which Rusal already sees at 429,000 tons, outside China, according to a presentation to analysts handed to Bloomberg. The gap may be 1.3 million tons in 2014 and 2015, growing to 1.9 million tons in 2016 and 2.4 million tons the following year.

Price Outlook

"We already see about 1.7 million tons of ex-China capacity being closed and we expect another 1 million tons to be idled or delayed next year," Mukhamedshin said. That should "sooner or later" start affecting the price as global aluminum stockpiles shrink, he said.

Prices have bottomed out, according to Rusal. Taking only supply and demand factors into account, prices may be around $2,000 a ton next year, $2,250 in 2015 and $2,400 ton in 2016.

About 9 million tons of aluminum is in storage outside of China, Rusal estimates. That covers about 2.2 million tons at warehouses not tracked by the LME, and 6.7 million tons of reported stocks, including 5.3 million tons at the London bourse, according to Mukhamedshin.

The total may decline to 5 million tons to 6 million tons, excluding China, by 2016 because of a widening gap between production and demand, Mukhamedshin said.

"It is clear that China won't export the primary metal," he said. "As a result, any capacity imbalance in China only affects the Chinese physical market."

Less Visibility

Rusal hasn't seen China increasing exports of semi-finished aluminum product, he said. "It remains at more or less the same level of the past several years," Mukhamedshin said. Most Chinese aluminum-producing provinces planning new projects have decided not to proceed with them.

The LME's decision to change its warehousing rules isn't expected to have any impact on the market, according to Rusal. The LME altered the terms in November to speed up withdrawals from warehoused stockpiles. The amendments will affect depots where waiting times exceed 50 calendar days.

The premiums paid by clients on top of the LME price to get the metal delivered promptly have returned to their levels before the bourse announced the changes and continue to rise, Mukhamedshin said. While premiums may start to decline after April 1, that should be accompanied by an increase in LME prices, he said.

The LME's steps,

intended to speed up deliveries from warehouses, may have the undesired effect of making it harder to track global levels of aluminum in storage, Mukhamedshin said.

"The new rules will force the transfer of additional amounts of metal into non-regulated zones, which will reduce transparency in aluminum stocks," he said.

Hydro-sjefen Brantzæg er fokusert og optimist, men markedet er avmålt. Show me the money?

NHY: Norsk Hydro Capital Markets Day 2013: Lifting the bar


Hydro's Capital Markets Day 2013 is focused on the improvement efforts being implemented throughout the value chain, encompassing all business areas, plants and units in an all-Hydro drive to continuously lift the bar.

Hydro's main ambitions are to

- Deliver on dedicated improvement programs in all business areas
- Capitalize on attractive positions across the value chain
- Maintain a strong financial position
- Lift unsatisfactory returns to a competitive level

Improvement programs are now being implemented in all business areas, tailored to the specifics within each step of the value chain from bauxite to rolled products and based on well-established production systems for each area. In line with the company culture of continuous improvements, Primary Metal has established a new program for its joint-venture smelters and is concluding its USD 300 program, while Bauxite & Alumina has re-confirmed the overall 2015 improvement targets for its "From B to A" program following setbacks earlier
this year.

"We are of course very pleased to deliver the USD 300 program as planned, but even more importantly at this stage is our ability to re-confirm the overall ambition to deliver NOK 1 billion in improvements from the 'From B to A' program, just months after the production setbacks we experienced earlier this year," says President and CEO Svein Richard Brandtzæg. "We are already seeing our efforts and actions paying off, lifting the average production for the first two months of the fourth quarter at Alunorte to an annualized level of 5.6 million metric tons."

Primary Metal has now delivered the USD 300 per mt improvement program, significantly strengthening the competitive position and the viability of Hydro's fully owned Norwegian smelters. The company has also established a separate program for its joint-venture smelters, targeting average improvements equivalent to USD 180 per mt to be delivered by the end of 2016.

Based on a strong customer focus, Rolled Products is continuing its drive to become the global leader within innovation. The business area aims to increase value creation by high-grading its product portfolio, further strengthen its position as a preferred partner among its customers and raise competitiveness through innovation. The market for rolled products is gaining momentum from substitution, where the penetration in automotive is generating solid demand growth.

Energy has successfully delivered several growth projects, which together with the Vigeland acquisition, improved operational performance, and increased precipitation has lifted normal production in Energy from 9.5 TWh to 10.0 TWh per year. Energy continues to support the other business areas in sourcing of energy, as in the process leading up to the signing earlier this year of a new power contract for the joint-venture smelter Slovalco.

"In a cyclical business such as aluminium, it is highly important to maintain a financial robustness to meet the low point of the cycle from a position of strength and flexibility. The current price level for many of our products remains challenging, and does not generate sustainable returns," Brandtzæg says. "The aluminium price is weighing on both Bauxite & Alumina and Primary Metal, although strong premiums offset some of the effect in Primary, showing how important our ability to maintain a solid financial position has been over the last years."

Endret 05.12.2013 10:01 av OldNick

World aluminum demand outside China is estimated to grow 2% in 2013 and 2-4% in 2014. Aluminium fundamentals remain promising due to the metal's many positive qualities, including its light weight and recyclability, and the global aluminium market is expected to show solid long-term growth of 4-6% annually over the next 10 years.

While energy-intensive to produce the first time, aluminium's strong user-phase qualities and ability to be infinitely recycled without any quality degradation makes aluminium the material of choice for a wide range of products and applications from a climate perspective. Hydro aims to capture the full potential of aluminium's climate qualities, and has an ambition to become climate neutral from a life-cycle perspective by 2020, based on production-phase energy-efficiency improvements, user-phase benefits and increased recycling capacity to bring more metal back to the loop.

Capital expenditures (capex) in 2014 are expected to be around NOK 4.3 billion, up from an estimated NOK 3.1 billion in 2013. Sustaining capex is estimated to increase from NOK 2.9 billion in 2013 to NOK 3.9 billion in 2014, partly driven by accounting effects in Rolled Products and higher than average pot relining in Primary Metal. Longer-term sustaining capex is estimated at NOK 3.5 billion. Growth capex for 2014 is expected to amount to NOK 0.4 billion.

Investor contact
Contact: Rikard Lindqvist, Cell: +47 41751199, E-mail: Rikard.Lindqvist@hydro.com

Press contact
Contact: Halvor Molland, Cell: +47 92979797, E-mail: Halvor.Molland@hydro.com

Norsk Hydro CMD 05.12.2013


DN.no: Hydro lover milliardforbedring

E24: Norsk Hydro: - Vi hever lista

Hydro fortsetter med omfattende forbedringstiltak, og vil investere 1,2 milliarder mer i 2014.

Stine Grihamar

Hegnar: Hydro-sjefen ønsker å heve listen

Vi ser Hydro er betydelig mer dempet mhp. optimisme mot et bedret Al-marked ift. hva Rusal uttrykte for 2 dager siden.

Men, et stemningskifte i markedet har de sett.

Hvordan skal man tolke dette tro?

Hydro: Ser ingen dramatiske forbedringer

Konserndirektør Arvid Moss i Norsk Hydro tror produksjonsveksten vil komme i Midtøsten

TDN Finans, DN.no

Torsdag sier Moss til TDN Finans at han ikke ser noen betydelig bedring i den globale tilbud- og etterspørselssiden på flere års sikt.

Vi ser ingen dramatiske forbedringer på flere års sikt, sier Moss til TDN Finans i forbindelse med selskapets kapitalmarkedsdag torsdag.

Begrenset vekst

Han ønsker ikke å kommentere på aluminiumsprisutviklingen fremover. Moss peker imidlertid på at det er begrenset med kapasitetsvekst de kommende årene.

Vi vurderer det slik at Kina har en helt klar politikk internt om å være selvforsynt og de balanserer det på grensen gjennom skatter og avgifter. Vi legger dermed til grunn at de vil bruke de virkemidlene de har for å kunne styre i den retningen, sier Moss.

I den grad det er endringer i sentrale lagre i Kina, spiller det dermed liten rolle, ifølge direktøren.

Ser til Midtøsten

Nye prosjekter man ser i dag, som vil komme i produksjon, er i Midtøsten, ifølge ham. I tillegg er det andre som er under bygging, som Hydro har regnet med

Men utover det er det veldig begrenset med hva som blir satt i gang av nye studier og prosjekter siden man ser et stort lager, lav pris, og mye kapasitet som er tatt ut, og som kan starte opp igjen først, sier han.

Her skal Hydro vokse

Setter av 400 millioner kroner til investeringer i økt kapasitet

Anders Park Framstad, E24.no

Vi prøver å holde investeringsnivået så lavt som mulig for å sikre vår finansielle styrke og fleksibilitet, sier konsernsjef Svein Richard Brandtzæg i Norsk Hydro til E24.

Likevel skal aluminiumsprodusenten ut med mer penger neste år.

I forbindelse med selskapets kapitalmarkedsdag torsdag ble det kjent at Hydro skal investere rundt 4,3 milliarder kroner i 2014. Dette er en økning på rundt 1,2 milliarder fra i år.

Av disse utgjør vedlikeholdsinvesteringer rundt 3,9 milliarder. Det øvrige, rundt 400 millioner, omtales som vekstinvesteringer.

Blant sistnevnte inngår oppgraderinger av fasiliteter i Brasil og Luxembourg.

De siste årene har Hydro også investert i økt resirkuleringskapasitet i Tyskland, og også her skal det puttes penger i ytterligere kapasitet.

Resirkuleringsanlegget for aluminiumsbokser i Tyskland er veldig lønnsomt. Det reduserer metallkostnadene for valseverket der nede, sier Brandtzæg.

I tillegg skal det utføres vedlikehold ved aluminiumsverket i Sunndal. Dette er arbeid som typisk må gjøres hvert femte år ved nyere smelteverk.

På Sunndalsøra får vi en bølge av katoder som skal skiftes ut. Det gjør at det blir veldig rolig etterpå, men de andre generasjons katodene må skiftes ut fordi levetiden er fullført, sier Brandtzæg.


Under kapitalmarkedsdagen fremgikk det ellers at Hydro venter bedring i aluminiumsmarkedet, etter fem år med svake aluminiumspriser.

Det har vært et stemningsskifte i markedet utenfor Kina, sa konserndirektør for energi og forretningsutvikling, Arvid Moss.

Mer på link

Endret 05.12.2013 17:52 av OldNick

Greenshoe ute?



Resultatene fra November-møtene i Kina's sentralkomite, hvor det faktisk ble vedtatt betydelige endringer for basemetall-industrien i China (ikke minst Al som er blitt "en forvokst gjøkunge" som de må fore med subsidier for å holde flytende), indikerer bedre tider for industrien.

China's non-ferrous metals sector faces regulatory changes

David Green, Editorial Metal Bulletin
Dec. 31, 2013

The non-ferrous metal sector in China is bracing itself for significant changes in regulation in 2014 as a result of November's third plenary session of the 18th central committee of the ruling Communist Party of China.

The meeting agreed a sweeping reform agenda, the implications of which are already being felt.

While the initial communiqué issued following the meeting on November 9-12 meeting was light on specifics, and met with collective shoulder shrugging, the subsequent release of a detailed resolution offered detail on the policy direction of President Xi Jinping's new administration.

Its text was notable for promising a shift to allow markets a "decisive" rather than "basic" role in the allocation of resources, which at the very least means changes to the pricing systems for key resources used in non-ferrous metals production, such as electricity, water and land.

"The consequences of shifting to a market-based economy will have a pronounced effect on the metals sector, with resource and interest rate liberalisation raising costs across the board and pushing many companies into a loss-making position," China-focused investment bank North Square Blue Oak (NSBO) said in a client note.

"In addition, the reduction in government intervention, SOE [state-owned enterprise] reform, lower credit and fiscal support, and stricter environmental standards will mean that those loss-making enterprises will be closed or merged into larger entities," Beijing-based NSBO analyst Frank Tang said.

The aluminum industry offers an interesting case study for third plenum-inspired reforms. For example, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) last week issued an edict indicating smelters will eventually be allowed to negotiate power contracts with power stations directly, but those operating above 13,700 kilowatt hours per tonne will be subject to a 10% electricity price hike.

"It's a clear signal that the central government is beginning to quantify and show its determination on coping with oversupply," said Yuan Ji, an analyst at China-based aluminium consultants AZ China. "The government wants to reduce administrative influence, and we think the entire market will be more competitive and information transparency will become more important," Ji said.

"At the same time, the government also emphasised environmental protection, which is a challenge for high-pollution industries, including aluminium. Both are negative for the industry, but also offer opportunities for domestic smelters to build more capacity in the west [where energy prices are cheaper] and [for Chinese companies] to invest overseas."

Indeed, the ministry of environmental protection last week revised pollutant emission standards permissible for the aluminium industry, which Ji highlighted as likely to raise costs and increase the appeal of shifting smelting capacity to western China.

"The government also stated China's economy will maintain stabilised growth, which will affect lending policies for some industries," Ji said. "For aluminium, banks may increase money supply or provide new loans to existing smelters that have advanced technology or excellent management and need to be saved in the current soft market situation. Meanwhile, private capital will provide aluminium smelters with more financing channels."

Meanwhile, China's commitment to balanced growth, written into the third plenum decision, could boost demand for indu

Endret 06.01.2014 11:40 av OldNick

industrial metals.

"Renewed emphasis on urbanisation, coupled with efficiency improvements and greater market focus, are expected to increase the demand for raw materials. Rising energy requirements and more stringent pollution standards are likely to support the development of natural gas fields and alternative energy sources, while increasing the utilisation of platinum and palladium in vehicles' catalytic converters," said Simona Gambarini, associate director of research at ETF Securities.

"Alongside indications of rising growth in the country, industrial activity should remain a buoyant source of demand for industrially-linked metals such as copper, platinum and palladium," she added.

"On the demand side, the Third Plenum emphasised urbanisation again, and no doubt the demand from the construction sector will grow steadily," added AZ China's Ji. "Demand from the packaging and auto industries will also be boosted, indicating that the demand side will collectively offset oversupply across many sectors."

Mr Tang added that copper will be among the metals least affected by the third plenum reforms as the consolidation of state-owned players is already well underway, while mid-term demand will probably be sustained by clean-tech investment and increased purchases of consumer items, such as household appliances and cars.

From bad to worse for China's aluminium sector

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 3, 2014

The Chinese aluminium market is bracing itself for what could potentially be its worst year in a decade as continuous capacity expansions and lower production costs put pressure on an already oversupplied market.

Capacity and prices

The country's aluminium capacity is expected to reach 32 million tpy by the end of 2013, Wen Xianjun, vice general secretary of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Assn, said in December. This is an 18.5% jump from 2012's 27 million tpy and nearly six times the capacity of a decade ago.

In 2014, capacity is expected to reach over 34 million tpy.

"Capacity will expand especially quickly in the low-cost regions of western China and Shandong province," Sang Yongliang, analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, said in research note. "New facilities tend to have better technology and thus reduce unit costs," he said.

Capacity expansion has in fact beaten the government's plan for an annual output of 24 million tonnes by the end of 2015.

"Chinese aluminium prices won't be able to see gains next year as capacity increases," an analyst from Beijing said.

"Supply will remain tight for the first half on the global market but will loosen somewhat in the second half as a major smelter in the Middle East resumes production, while the LME rule changes may also prise some aluminium out of the warehouses," a major trader said.

Most imports of aluminium in China are used for toll trade, as there is more than abundant aluminium supply in the domestic market and processors use imported aluminium mainly for its better quality or to meet requests from clients.

A dearth of metal outside of China is unlikely to buoy up prices because of the 15% export tax imposed on Chinese aluminium and Beijing's policy reforms that may tend to reduce costs for local producers.

Production costs

As part of China's electricity policy reforms, major power consumers such as steel mills and aluminium smelters should be able to buy electricity directly from power generators, instead of buying from the state power grid.

This will effectively lower power costs for smelters. The idea was mooted in 2002 and has taken a decade to be implemented as it involves the reallocation of interests among power generators, state power grids and consumers.

A number of provinces including Jilin, Guangdong, Liaoning, Anhui, Fujian, Jiangsu and Heilongjiang have started

Endret 07.01.2014 16:39 av OldNick

trial runs of the reforms, and more are expected to come up with their plans in the coming year.

To understand how this will work, consider the aluminium production hub of Henan. Implementing the reform would lower power rates for smelters by about 0.1 yuan per kWh, which is a worthwhile cut in costs since it takes about 13,000-14,000 kWh to produce one tonne of aluminium.

Before Christmas, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced that aluminium smelters will be charged power rates based on their energy consumption in 2014.

A smelter will be charged a normal power rate if it consumes less than 13,700 kWh to produce one tonne of aluminium; smelters consuming 13,700-13,800 kWh to produce one tonne of aluminium will be charged 0.02 yuan more for each kWh. Those consuming more than 13,800 kWh to produce each tonne of aluminium will have to pay 0.08 yuan more for each kWh, according to the regulator.

The NDRC also requested local governments to regulate transactions between power generators and aluminium smelters - those consuming more than 13,700 kWh to produce each tonne of aluminium, for example, will not be allowed to trade with power generators directly.

It is still unclear how effectively the policies will be carried out, though they do underscore the government's efforts to check outdated capacity. If the policy is implemented, more smelters will be forced to reduce or halt production in the face of losses in 2014.

Bauxite and alumina

Chinese buyers of Indonesia's bauxite will keep a close eye on how the country implements its proposed minerals exports ban.

Indonesia's largest bauxite miner, PT Antam's 300,000-tpy chemical grade alumina plant in West Kalimantan province is expected to start full operation in March.

"Chalco, Nanshan, Weiqiao and others have invested in or plan to invest in Indonesia and are likely to ship out raw materials through their joint ventures in Indonesia," the Beijing analyst said.

Indonesia accounts for about 70% of China's bauxite imports.

"While there is ample bauxite around the world and in China, Indonesian bauxite contains less silicon and [its use] can lower smelting costs," Yang Xiaoguang, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in Shenzhen, said.

Smelters based in Shandong may bear the brunt of the Indonesian ban.

"Most Shandong smelters produce alumina using the Bayer process, which requires Indonesian bauxite and consumes less energy," Yang said, adding that Shandong smelters cannot use domestic bauxite, 90% of which is controlled by Aluminium Corp of China (Chalco), due to lower quality.

Shandong companies make up eight of China's top ten bauxite importers.

Freight costs for bauxite imports from countries such as India and Australia are also higher.

"The ban is all right for the short term, as it will take a while for Chinese smelters to digest the large inventories they built up in 2013," another Beijing aluminium analyst said.

China's bauxite imports recorded historic highs in 2013, with many alumina smelters sitting on stocks that could last for at least six months, with some having sufficient supplies for 8-10 months of production, according to analysts. This is a much higher level than the usual inventory, capable of lasting for about four to five months.

In the first ten months of 2013, China imported 60.3 million tonnes of bauxite, up 85.9% year-on-year.

Analysts have also raised doubts about the duration of the ban, given the weakness of the Indonesian economy.

Hopes after 2014

The only positive for China's aluminium market next year could be China's capacity expansion reaching a peak and then ebbing from 2015.

"As the central government tightens control over new capacity, there will be fewer new projects coming on stream in 2015. 2014 could therefore be the tou

Oslo) TDN Finans: Norsk Hydro mener utsiktene for aluminiumbransjen er bedre ved inngangen til 2014 enn ved inngangen til 2013, og ledelsen tror Europa nå har nådd en bunn samtidig som det er ventet at Kina vil fortsette å være en drivkraft for verdensøkonomien.
Det sier konsernsjef Svein Richard Brandtzæg i Norsk Hydro til TDN Finans onsdag.
-Det har lenge vært en situasjon med overproduksjon av aluminium og med mye investeringer i ny kapasitet med svake priser, men aluminiumsindustrien har ingen grunner til å klage på etterspørselen, sier Brandtzæg til TDN Finans.
Konsernsjefen er optimistisk med tanke på utsiktene for bransjen.
-Nå er det et balansert marked mellom tilbud og etterspørsel, og situasjonen med overproduksjon er over, men det er fortsatt høye lagre av aluminium, sier han.
Ifølge Brandtzæg er det ventet at aluminiumlagrene vil bli bygget ned over tid, og han mener bransjens utsikter er bedre i 2014 enn 2013.
-Grunnlaget for en mer positiv utvikling er i større grad tilstede ved inngangen til 2014 enn ved inngangen til 2013, sier han.
Han tror mange land i Europa nå har nådd en bunn.
-Bunnen er nådd for mange land i Europa og regionen beveger seg sidelengs med et lite positivt fortegn, noe som er et godt signal fordi regionen har svekket seg over lengre tid, men vi venter ikke en betydelig vekst i regionen, sier han.
Brandtzæg mener veksten i USA er godt i gang, og ser nå tegn på positive utviklingstrekk.
-I USA er veksten i gang og vi ser positive utviklingstrekk for både økonomien som helhet og aluminiumsmarkedet, sier han.
Veksten i Asia beskriver konsernsjefen som "veldig positiv".
-I Asia er det en veldig positiv utvikling, men mange stiller nå spørsmål rundt den videre utviklingen i Kina, sier han, og legger til:
-Basert på våre observasjoner har det vært en positiv utvikling i Kina og vi venter en "soft landing", sier Brandtzæg.
Ifølge ham er økonomien i et skifte fra å være eksportdrevet til å bli forbruksdrevet, noe som gjør at man burde forvente lavere vekst i landet, men han venter at Kina vil fortsette å være en drivkraft for verdensøkonomien.
-Jeg tror Kina vil være en drivkraft i verdensøkonomien i mange år fremover, sier han

Fort. fra OldNick #15296

2014 could therefore be the toughest year for the industry," Guotai Junan's Sang said.

Take Xinjiang, where aluminium capacity has been surging in recent years. "We understand that those who have already got approvals but haven't started construction will not be able to start their projects as the local government of Xinjiang has decided to toe Beijing's policy on curbing capacity," a market source said.

Being an autonomous region, Xinjiang usually enjoys more freedom in terms of approvals for new projects.

Many smelters may have to reduce or halt production, or even close shop next year in the face of continuous losses if demand does not pick up substantially.

In Henan, all aluminium smelters recorded losses for the first half of 2013 and are expected to remain loss-making for the full year too, according to Henan Nonferrous Metals Assn.

"During the past decade, Chinese aluminium market participants have been hoping that growth in China's investment and demand will digest the aluminium oversupply and underpin prices. Now, the situation is different. It is not sustainable for companies to keep suffering losses for long," Sang said.

Pan Jiazhu, vice director of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Assn, has predicted that only 20-30 aluminium smelters of the more than 100 now will be able to survive in the coming years.

Alcoa fikk et svakt Q4-2013 resultat, hovedsaklig pga. nedskrivninger på $1.72b, men også pga. solide bøter til SEC/DoJ på totalt $384m pga. bestikkelser ifm. med en kontrakt med Barhain's statskontrollerte smelteverk Alba.

Utbetalingene ble gjort fra et Alcoa datterselskap i Bahrain, og Alcoa har ikke erkjent at noen i morselskapewt visste om dette, ei heller er det dokumentert fra myndighetene.

Omsetningen falt 5.3%, mens leveransene falt 3%. Selv om topplinjen var sterkere, var driftsmarginene svakere enn forventet, og aksjen falt over 4% AH.

Alcoa forventer, som Hydro jevn vekst fremover, ca. 7% globalt i 2014.

Dette burde ikke tynge Hydro.

Alcoa Reports Steep Loss on Impairment Charge

Aluminum Maker Sees Global Industry Demand Rising This Year at Same Pace as 2013



E24: Hydro-konkurrent skuffet. Alcoa leverte svakere enn ventet i det fjerde kvartalet

DN: Som ventet fra Alcoa

Kan Indonesias stopp av eksport bidra positivt for Hydro?
Kjell T. Ringen


"Den franske storbanken Societe Generale oppgraderer anbefalingen på Norsk Hydro til kjøp fra hold og høyner samtidig kursmålet til 33 fra 26 kroner.

Det skriver Dow Jones Newswires torsdag. Oppgraderingen kommer som følge av forventninger om at Hydro vil doble driftsresultatet i 2014.

Banken øker estimatet for driftsresultatet i 2014 med 46 prosent til 6 milliarder kroner. Societe Generale venter nå en gjenhenting i aluminium-premiene, lavere produksjonskostnader for alumina og en svakere norsk krone."

NHY stiger i dag med 3,74% i øyeblikket. Det er bra!


Endret 16.01.2014 12:54 av CptWinters

Fra TDN Finans: Hydro markert opp, DNO trakk ned


Norsk Hydro-aksjen steg markert på høy omsetning torsdag, mens DNO International gikk i motsatt retning.

Société Générale oppgraderer Hydro fra hold til kjøp og høyner kursmålet fra 26 kroner til 33. Meglerhuset trekker frem oppgang i premien på aluminium, lavere produksjonskostnader for alumina og svakere norsk krone som positive momenter.

Premiene som betales for umiddelbar leveranse av aluminium har steget markert i flere markeder i Asia denne uken, og følger dermed etter en lignende utvikling i Nord-Amerika og Europa.

Alcoa meldte onsdag kveld at det permanent stenger ned to produksjonslinjer på Massena East-verket i New York i første kvartal. Nedstengningen vil redusere Alcoas aluminiumkapasitet med 84.000 årstonn.

-Noen av våre kunder har kjøpt på nivåer med premie på nær 300 dollar tonnet, og dette skyldes høye premier i Midtvesten i USA og i Vest-Europa, og nedstengningen på Alcoas Massena, sier en Japan-basert aluminiumtrader til Metal Bulletin.

Han legger imidlertid til at det ikke er snakk om store volumer som har blitt handlet i Japan.

Analytiker Anne Gjøen i Handelsbanken Capital Markets viser blant annet til den seneste tidens betydelige oppgang i premiene, spesielt i USA, som en årsak til kursoppgangen for Hydro.

Ifølge henne kan aksjen være spennende for investorer ettersom kursen har gått sidelengs i lang tid, samtidig som aluminiumprisen nå ligger på et nivå som ikke vedvare.

-Den seneste tiden har det vært en positiv utvikling for bauksitt og alumina, men det vil fortsatt ta tid før dette kan ses i Hydros inntjening, sier hun til TDN Finans.

Handelsbanken Capital Markets tror ikke på en fundamentalt bedre markedsbalanse for aluminium før i 2015 eller 2016, og problemet er at det er store lageroverheng.

Handelsbanken har en akkumuler-anbefaling på Hydro-aksjen.

Hydro endte opp 5,4 prosent til 29,33.

Better second half expected for mining equities - Citi analysts

Metal Bulleting
Jan. 14, 2014

The mining sector could deliver a strong second half in terms of equity prices, analysts at Citigroup said in a note on Monday January 13.

"While we remain neutral on the metals and mining sector on a six-month view, we think the sector can potentially deliver a strong second-half 2014 performance based on free cash flow, cost cutting and volume growth as the market looks into 2015," they said.

"In 2013 the mining companies changed ceos, cut capex plans and focused on costs but, despite this, the sector underperformed the FTSE 100 by [about] 24%," they added.

Last year was the third year in a row that the sector underperformed, according to the analysts, following 19% underperformance in 2011 and 12% in 2012.

Into 2014, meanwhile, they believe the sector will perform in line with markets during the first half of the year, driven by a near-term slowdown in China and a "muted" commodity price outlook.

In the second half, the analysts said, they believe the sector will benefit from better free cash flow yields and improving balance sheets, thanks to lower capital spending and cost cutting.

"We see 2015 as a potential fillip year for the mining industry and we think that investors should position themselves for this by mid-2014," the analysts said.

"We forecast the sector to deliver a [compound annual growth rate] in earnings of [about] 7% until the end of the decade, driven principally by volume growth and cost cutting rather than by commodity prices," they added.

Importantly, they are predicting free cash flow yield to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23.9% until 2020, which is a function of reductions in capital expenditure.

Overall, they estimate that the sector is trading at a price to earnings discount of about 10% against the UK market, and Rio Tinto remains the cheapest name on a relative basis on the London Stock Exchange.

Endret 16.01.2014 20:03 av OldNick

Interessant nyhet fra Detroit bilutstilling som pågår.

Ford har bygd en F-150 modell med hovedsaklig Al (bortsett fra rammen), noe som skal sørge for vektbesparelse på ca. 2-300 kg per bil.

F-serien (F-150 - F-750) er Ford's mestselgende bil i Nord-amerika (selv om jeg tror deres Focus-modell er større i antall solgte worldwide), og derfor Ford's viktigste modell til overskuddet.

F-serien ble introdusert i 1948, og F-150 kom første gang i 1975, en kompromiss-modell i F-serien etter oljekrisen i 1973 og påfølgende innstramming i brenselsforbruk-standard fra myndighetene.

Dagens F-serie er den 12 modellserien i rekken.

Ford F-150 har 3 og 6-seters kabin, med en modellrekke av bensin-motorer (USA) med V6-V8 på 302-411 HP. Vekten er mellom 2.3 og 2.8 tonn for 2014-modellene.

Vekt-reduksjonen kan altså utgjøre ca. 10-12%. Ikke mye for en bil, men dette er et "monster" og kan bety noe allikevel, hvis slike kontruksjoner blir standarden i fremtiden. iflg. info'en gitt, skal "mileage" for F-150 bedres ra typisk 17 til 25 miles/gal (som tilsvarer fra 1.4 til 1.0 liter/mil), et resultat ved at Ford også skraper den største motorutgaven og setter inn mindre, turboladede bensin-motorer.

Ford solgte 763 402 i USA og ca. 900 000 av F-serien (ikke bare 150, men 250 til 750 også) worldwide i 2013, den 4'dje mest selgende "bilen" worldwide i fjor (om man inkluderer trucks blant personbiler).

Ford's Aluminum F-150 Marks New Era

Design of Mass-Market Pickup Signals Lengths Auto Makers Will Go to Meet Fuel

Mike Ramsey, WSJ
Jan. 12, 2014

When Ford Motor Co. F +0.18% unveils its new, aluminum F-150 pickup truck on Monday, it will do more than reveal a critical new product. It will mark a new era for the auto industry in which successfully managing big technological risks will separate winners from losers.

Six years after the financial crisis, oil prices have stabilized and the U.S. auto industry has rebounded from depths not seen since the Great Depression. Short-term survival is no longer a question.

But car makers still face challenges as consumers and policy makers pressure the industry to throw off its conservative approach to innovation. The new F-150 shows how auto makers will need to take dramatic steps to meet demands to more than double gas mileage in the world's major markets by the middle of the next decade.

"I've looked back at other periods where we have come off periods of success and then we stagnate and stumble, and I think it's because we stopped making big bets," says Ford Chairman Bill Ford Jr. "If anything, I've learned you have to go faster and bet bigger when You are doing well".

Mer på link

Endret 17.01.2014 00:42 av OldNick

Det strømmer på med oppgraderinger innenfor Al-industrien.

Denne gangen Alcoa, som er opp 7%.
Drar med seg NHY også - opp 3.6%. NHY har steget 22% siden VALE solgte seg ut på NOK25.

UPDATE: JPMorgan Upgrades Alcoa

David Johnson, Benzinga
Jan. 21, 2014

In a report published Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Brian Ossenbeck upgraded Alcoa (NYSE: AA), raising its price target to $15.00 from $9.00.

According to the report, the upgrade reflects the impact of tightening aluminum markets and rising regional aluminum premiums on earnings.

"Our Global Commodities Research team revised their aluminum supply/demand model on January 17th following recent producer capacity curtailments and changes to their view of China's likely production profile, which reduced the team's 2014 global primary surplus estimate by 364k tonnes to a 435k tonne surplus," the report noted.

"While China should see a 1.5mm tonne surplus this year, the rest of the world should actually have a 1.1mm tonne deficit in 2014.

We believe it is important to split Chinese supply from the rest of the world as we think it is unlikely that China will export a significant amount of primary metal given its 15% export tax and the central government's redoubled focus on increasing pollution controls and reducing excess industrial capacity.

Additionally, the recent ban by Indonesia of bauxite exports could push Chinese primary aluminum costs (and thus prices) higher as China sourced roughly 70% of its bauxite imports from Indonesia during 2008-2011.

China began building inventory and diversifying away from Indonesia since 2012 when the country's export ban and tax increase was originally slated for implementation. Current estimates place Chinese bauxite inventories at roughly one year of demand."

Historier om høyere premiums i mange markeder...

Swaps traders drove US midwest aluminium premiums higher in scramble to close shorts

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 21, 2014

London - Swaps dealers at banks and trading houses who were scrambling to close out loss-making positions helped drive the unprecedented spike in the US Midwest aluminium premium, banking and trading sources told Metal Bulletin.

The near-doubling in the Midwest premium has been largely attributed to a confluence of fundamental triggers including capacity cuts, stronger physical and financial demand and the concentration of stocks in strong hands.

But the near-doubling in the Midwest aluminium premium over the past fortnight cannot be explained solely by reference to those stronger fundamental conditions, sources said on Monday January 20.

Higher premiums in the USA have sharpened the price rises seen in other regions too.

Some of the most frantic bidding on the Midwest premium has come from bankers and traders who sold swaps referencing the benchmark last year, banking and trading sources told Metal Bulletin.

"Whenever there are violent moves, there are always winners and bleeders. [The swaps traders] are the bleeders [in this case]," a source at a physical trading house told Metal Bulletin.

Endret 21.01.2014 18:15 av OldNick

Further short-term rises expected for Al premiums in Europe

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 21, 2014

Aluminium premiums are soaring ever higher in Europe on tight nearby supply and high levels in the USA, and there are no signs that they will slow down imminently.

Duty-paid premiums are climbing towards $350 per tonne and beyond, market participants said, while duty-unpaid premiums could easily break through $300 on average in the coming days.

"The US [premium] is at 20.5 cents per lb and there are rumours that Vlissingen material is going into the States," a trader said.

"There's also structural shortness in Europe, and premiums there have to trade at a premium to the USA. The London Metal Exchange price is not the real aluminium price anymore - the all-in price is a physical price now and volatility is reflected in the premium."

In terms of the prospects for the rest of the year, market participants have been loath to make any assertive predictions, but have said they believe the upward rush in premium levels has further to run before it shows signs of waning.

"It's so unprecedented that it's difficult to say where numbers will be on a forward basis. I would argue that they should probably be higher, given what's happened in the States," the trader said.

2 min video om Al-markedet på link under.

Den slår fast at LME-prisen er frakoblet det fysiske markedet, og at realiteten reflekteres i de raskt økende premiums fysiske kunder må betale for å få kjøpt Al...

VIDEO: Al premiums smash records

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 20, 2014

Aluminium premiums rocketed to new record highs in the first weeks of 2014, making a mockery of earlier forecasts for falling numbers.

Jethro Wookey examines the trend that has seen premiums reach as much as 20% of the "all-in" aluminium cost.

HOTTER ON METALS: Aluminium's polar vortex

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 20, 2014


Aluminium premiums

Metal Bulletin
Jan. 21, 2014

Metal Bulletin's artikkel-arkiv om Al-premiums

Fra 22Aug2012 til 16Jan2014. Mer enn 100 artikler (gadd ikke å telle)

Endret 21.01.2014 18:26 av OldNick

Ref. innlegg OldNick #15330 lenger tilbake, hvor jeg omtalte Ford's nye F150-serie pickup's med Al-karosseri.

Her er industriens estimater for økt Al-behov.

Al demand may get push from Ford's F-150, market participants say

Jan. 24, 2014

Chicago - The new Al-intensive body enclosure of the Ford F-150 pickup truck could use about 1 000 lbs of the light metal per vehicle, boosting total demand by at least 500m lbs (230 000t) annually, according to industry analysts.

O'Carroll estimated that the 2015 F-150 will use about 1 000 lbs of Al per vehicle and that 700 000 to 750 000 vehicles could be produced annually, creating new demand for as much as 750m lbs per year (340 000t), including Al that becomes scrap in the stamping process.

Ford Motor Co said that almost all of the body structure, closures and cargo box of the F-150 will be made with Al but did not provide a specific amount of Al per vehicle. The automaker also declined to provide a production forecast for the vehicle.

Richard Schultz, managing director of the materials practice at market research firm Ducker Worldwide LLC, said the 1 000 lbs of Al expected to be used on each F-150 would include about 600 lbs for the vehicle's Al body enclosure versus about 350 lbs of total Al on the 2014 F-150.

Those 600 lbs will require roughly 1 000 lbs of Al input per vehicle for sheet and extrusions in the body enclosure alone, or roughly 500m lbs of new incremental demand assuming 500 000 vehicles are produced per year, Schultz said.

About 5.1b lbs of Al are expected to be shipped to the automotive industry in the USA and Canada in 2015, up 10.9% from the 4.6b lbs Hayes estimates was shipped to the sector in 2014. The double-digit growth comes even as auto production is expected to increase only 3% to 16.6m vehicles in 2014, he said.

Mer på link

Goldman Sachs anbefaler å kjøpe Hydro-aksjen

Løfter kursmålet med 12 kroner

TDN Finans, DN.no

Goldman Sachs oppgraderer Norsk Hydro fra hold til kjøp og oppjusterer kursmålet fra 26 til 38 kroner pr aksje.

Det fremgår av en analyserapport tirsdag, skriver TDN Finans.

Ifølge meglerhuset har det vært tre år med svake Al-priser, men etter 2014 venter analytikerne begrenset tilbudsvekst kombinert med sterk global etterspørselsvekst.

«Sterk global etterspørsel kombinert med begrenset tilbudsvekst utover 2015 samt en mer aggressiv holdning mot lagerkapasitet fra produsentenes side, kan føre til en gjeninnhenting for prisene i 2015 og 2016», heter det.

Goldman Sachs mener Hydro har «signifikant giring» mot høyere Al-priser, og meglerhusets råvareteam har derfor endret sine resultat pr aksje (eps) estimater for aksjen.

For 2013 høyner analytikerne eps-estimatet fra 0,66 til 0,74 kroner pr aksje, fra 0,79 til 0,59 kroner for 2014 og fra 1,34 til 1,46 kroner for 2015.

Vanskelig 2014 for Al-prisene

Goldman Sachs venter et vanskelig år for Al-prisene i 2014 på grunn av fortsatt sterk vekst i tilbudet fra Kina.

«Vi reduserer vårt ebitda-estimat for 2014 fra 7.413 til 6.797 millioner kroner som et resultat av at vi tar høyde for lavere Al-priser», heter det.

Meglerhuset har nedjustert sitt prisestimat fra 1.758 til 1.700 dollar pr tonn for 2014.

China's Al-output up 9.7% in 2013

Jan. 27, 2014

China's refined Al-production was up 9.7% year-on-year at 22m tonnes in 2013, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. Output is likely to rise further this year.

"Many ongoing projects will complete construction and commence production this year in a row," Wang Rong, analyst of Guotai Junan Futures in Shanghai, sai

Endret 27.01.2014 17:24 av OldNick

AA suser videre. Opp 3,3% (15 min forsinket)

The annual growth in 2013 was slower than the 13% rise seen in 2012, as "production cuts in the first half and ongoing outdated capacity cuts had an effect to a certain extent," Wang pointed.

The annual output was about 69% of China's total capacity of 32 million tpy, a clear indication of overcapacity in the sector.

"The consensus is that capacity would peak in 2014," Wang added.


Brazil er blitt betydelig verre å drive gruveindustri i etterat Lula ga seg som President.

Dilma Rousseff, den ny epresidenten, kom fra samme patrti, men har dreid politikken betydelig mot venstre, og oppviser en mye mindre pragmatisk politikk, dessverre.

NHY: Norsk Hydro - ICMS-skatt har innvirkning på bauksitt og alumina-virksomheten


Norsk Hydro ASAs aluminaraffineri Alunorte i Brasil vil være gjenstand for ICMS-beskatning på fyringsolje fra 1. februar, som følge av den brasilianske delstaten Pars beslutning om å endre innsamlingspunktet for ICMS-skatt på kjøp av fyringsolje.

Forutsatt at vedtaket opprettholdes, vil den estimerte effekten for Hydro være en økning i kostnader på ca. 60 millioner brasilianske real (150 millioner kroner) i kvartalet for Hydros forretningsområde Bauksitt & Alumina.

Vi er bekymret for den plutselige endringen i skattelovgivningen som påvirker vår virksomhet i delstaten Pará, og vi gjør det vi kan for å forsøke å få reversert denne beslutningen, i dialog med lovgivere i Pará, sier konserndirektør Johnny Undeli, leder for Bauksitt & Alumina i Hydro. Hydros ambisjon er å utvikle robuste og levedyktige virksomheter i Pará, samt bidra til bærekraftig vekst for denne ressursrike regionen. For å forfølge denne ambisjonen trenger vi stabile og forutsigbare rammebetingelser.

ICMS er en skatt på varer og tjenester, som samles inn av de brasilianske delstatene. Aluminiumindustrien har en ICMS-utsettelse, som må fornyes innen juli 2015 i delstaten Pará, som gir dispensasjon på kjøp av varer og tjenester innenfor delstaten. De siste endringene på ICMS-beskatning av fyringsolje vil derimot flytte innsamlingspunktet for ICMS til oljeraffinerier som er plassert utenfor delstaten Pará.

Avgjørelsen er lik den som ble fattet i 2012, da Alunorte midlertidig betalte ICMS-skatt på fyringsolje i tre kvartaler. Denne avgjørelsen ble senere reversert.

I tillegg har Hydro og selskapets leverandør av elektrisitet akseptert å betale ICMS-skatter ved kjøp av elektrisitet ved Alunorte og bauksittgruven Paragominas i tiden etter fullføring av Vale-transaksjonen 28. februar 2011. Oppgjøret beløper seg til 280 millioner kroner, hvorav 170 millioner kroner relaterer seg til ICMS-skatt på elektrisitetskjøp for perioden og 110 millioner kroner er knyttet til straffeskatter.

Forpliktelsen til å betale ICMS-skatter på elektrisitet var tidligere bestridt av selskapene, men i lys av en nylig ufordelaktig rettsavgjørelse mellom en
leverandør av elektrisitet og statsmyndigheter, ble det akseptert å foreta betalingen, og dermed muliggjøre deltagelse for leverandøren av elektrisitet i Parás skatteamnesti. Amnestiet ga mulighet til å avgjøre skattesaken med betydelig reduserte straffeskatter.

Fremover vil ICMS-kostnader belastes kjøp av elektrisitet med 8 millioner brasilianske real (20 millioner kroner) per kvartal, og i hovedsak øke kostnadene ved Paragominas.

Straffeskatter vil bli behandlet som poster ekskludert i resultatene for fjerde kvartal 2013, mens ICMS-kostnaden vil bli inkludert i det underliggende resultatet i samme kvartal.

Kontakt: Rikard Lindqvist, Mob +47 4175 1199, E-mail: Rikard.Lindqvist@hydro.com

Kontakt: Halvor Molland, Mob +47 9297 9797, E-mail: Halvor.Molland@hydro.com

Endret 13.02.2014 20:54 av observer

Oppløftende utvikling for Norsk Hydro

Investorpresentasjon Q4 2013

Conference call Q4 2013

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