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Norsk Hydro III
kjello3
15:44
18.08.2012
#7269

Yahoo - antakelig under NHY.OL
gorwell
16:37
18.08.2012
#20718

Takker for svar. Er ikke ute etter daglige noteringer. Trenger alle intradag-handler for de to månedene.

Av den typen man finner på Netfonds

gorwell

Endret 18.08.2012 16:39 av gorwell
sjakkmatt
12:17
21.08.2012
#1627

Her har vi en omvendt Hode-Skulder formasjon hvor halslinjen er brutt i dag. Kursmål: kr. 30

Hydro chart

Endret 21.08.2012 12:17 av sjakkmatt
sjakkmatt
12:20
21.08.2012
#1628



Her ses en omvendte Hode-Skulder forhåpentligvis tydelig
OldNick
21:52
29.08.2012
#13696

Chalco swings to first-half loss on lower aluminium prices

Met.Bull.
Aug 27, 2012

Aluminium Corp of China (Chalco), the country's biggest producer of the lightweight metal, swung to a loss in the first half of 2012 due to lower metals prices and higher raw materials and power costs.

Chalco's net loss for the first half of 2012 was 3.25 billion yuan ($513 million), compared with a net profit of 413 million yuan a year earlier, the company said.

"This was mainly attributable to the continuous decline in sales prices of major products and an increase in costs attributable to the surge in the cost of raw materials, fuels and power," the company said.

Aluminium prices in China have slumped this year on lower demand, making a large portion of the country's highest-cost smelters unprofitable.

Chalco said the cost of servicing its debt also ate into profits, as interest rate increases by banks pushed up financing costs.

In the first half of 2012, Chalco produced 5.97 million tonnes of alumina, an increase of 11.2% year-on-year, 2.04 million tonnes of primary aluminum, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and 290,000 tonnes of aluminum fabricated products, a decrease of 9.4% from a year earlier.

The company increased the supply of bauxite from self-developed mines to 7.44 million tonnes, representing an increase of 12.4% year-on-year, "to mitigate the impact arising from the restriction on the bauxite export imposed by the Indonesian government", it said.

"With a keen eye on the changes in Indonesia's bauxite export policy, the group will proactively strive for the export quotas of bauxite from Indonesia through a variety of approaches, including correlating the bauxite export quotas to cooperative bauxite suppliers with a view to resuming the supply of exported bauxite as soon as possible,'' it added.

To combat higher electricity costs, Chalco said it will secure the coal resources and mining rights for integrated projects in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia and speed development of its existing coal projects.

As an example, Chalco pointed to an agreement between its trading subsidiary and coking coal supplier Mongolia Erdenes MGL LLC for supply of coal from the Tavan Tolgoi mine.
______

Rusal posts 72% slump in Q2 profit, will cut capacity

Met.Bull.
Aug 27, 2012

Rusal's second-quarter net profit slumped by 72% year-on-year, as it pared its demand forecast and announced plans to curtail more capacity this year.

Recurring net profit, which includes Rusal's share of Norilsk Nickel's earnings, dropped to $143 million, from $502 million a year earlier.

"During the first half of 2012, continuing financial problems in the eurozone and slower-than-expected growth in emerging economies resulted in a further weakening of the global economic recovery," chief executive Oleg Deripaska said in a statement.

"These challenging market conditions put a significant pressure on the aluminium industry, especially in the second quarter of 2012, leading to a sharp downturn in the price of aluminium on the [London Metal Exchange]," he added.

Three-month LME aluminium prices were on average about 24% lower year-on-year in the April-June period, leaving many smelters struggling to remain profitable.

The company's revenues fell 15% on the year to $2.83 billion in the second quarter, but Rusal said the difficulties were compounded by higher costs for raw materials and transportation.

The company said it would cut 275,000 tpy of its highest-cost smelter capacity up to 2018, with 150,000 tpy of curtailments being implemented this year.

More than 4.5 million tpy of worldwide aluminium production will be idled in 2012 as alu
bustenskjold
22:44
29.08.2012
#54

Kursmål 18 kr.fortsatt.
highlander
10:59
04.09.2012
#2965

Norsk Hydro effektiviserer i Tyskland...
gorwell
18:55
04.09.2012
#20800

Aluminiumsprisen har bunnet ut og er så vidt på vei opp. Over 2000 dollars ser det bærre lækkert ut.

Ad Chalco ser det ut til at de får lav yield av sin alumina, den burde kunne gitt nærmere 3.000 kilotonn.

gorwell
gorwell
17:01
07.09.2012
#20820

Har vært heldig med calls i denne.

Sitter på litt OTM calls med forfall neste måned. Etter Alcoa å dømme som ser ut til å tegne bullish`e three whites, og aluminiumsprisen som løper beina av seg, etter sigende på short-posisjoner som dekkes inn...

Kan også NHY tegne sin tredje soldier og deretter gå til strike`en på 29 og vel så det.

gorwell
gorwell
12:58
09.09.2012
#20824

Griseheldig!

AA fortsetter opp sammen med aluminiumsprisen. Det blir vel kanskje en 3-4 prosenter også for NHY til mandags. Skal vi si at det er muligheter for 27,50-28,00 kroner?

gorwell
nerden
17:18
09.09.2012
#28166



Det steg på nyhetene natt til fredag om at de skulle bygge veier og baner til alle disse ubebodde spøkelsesbyene som er bygget, i natt kom det dårlige tall fra Kina og da spørs det:-)

svan
19:23
09.09.2012
#190

Nå må du slutte med tullpratet ditt nerden.
gorwell
15:19
11.09.2012
#20843

Liten dupp for aksjekursen. Aluminiumsprisen fortsetter opp. AA ser ut til å åpne opp. CAR tabber seg forhåpentlig ut med megasalget sitt?

gorwell
gorwell
16:00
11.09.2012
#20844

AA er pent opp og nærmer seg gårsdagens intraday high, aluminiumsprisen går så det griner. NHY passerer nok 28 kroner i inneværende uke. Og tar kanskje ut gårsdagens intraday high i dag?

Fikk ikke postet før den spratt og etablerte ny IDH....

gorwell
OldNick
20:48
12.09.2012
#13747

VALE, det nest største gruveselskapet i verden (etter børsverdi) er i relativt store problemer.

90% av profitten kommer fra jernmalm, og det var begrunnelsen for å diversifisere portefølgen.

Derfor så begynte de å kjøpe alt fra utviklingsprosjekter til gruver og smelteverk i drift innen nisjer som kull, Ni, Cu og andre mineraler. Eksempel på siste var oppkjøpet av INCO Ltd, det Canadiske Ni-selskapet som da var verdens nest største (etter Norilsk). De hadde en rekke utviklings- og investeringsprosjekter som flere i ettertid har gått riktig ille for. Det er en antall mrd. USD investert de aldri kommer til å få noe avkastning på (dessverre).

Nå da jernmalmprisene kollapset de seneste ukene, ser de seg nødt til å kutte utgiftene og slanke balansen. En av eiendelene som kommer til salg, er deres 21.7% eierandel i Hydro ASA.

De fikk utstedt 447 834 465 NHY-aksjer som delbetaling for Al-verkene Hydro kjøpte fra VALE for 2 år siden. Disse har nå verdi: ca. 12.1 mrd. NOK.

Bindingstiden for aksjene går ut 1/3-2013. Det spekuleres da i om VALE vil selge disse snarest etter den datoen.

Avhengig av børsklimaet kan det bli en betydelig utfordring å få avhendet disse i et krympende norsk marked.

Staten er den åpenbare kjøperen av (ihvertfall) deler av disse.
Staten sitter idag på 708 865 253 aksjer, som tilsvarer 34.26% andel av de utstedte aksjene, og kan dermed ha muligheten til å øke til over 50% igjen dersom de kjøper alt (eller det meste). Det ville vært minst destruktivt for markedet.

Dette mulige overhenget kan legge en betydelig demper på NHY-kursen utover vinteren.

(Alle %-andeler er tatt fra 2011 årsrapporten. Vet ikke om NHY har gjort noe tilbakekjøp i år.)

Vale Seen Cutting Budget as Iron Ore Collapses: Corporate Brazil

By Juan Pablo Spinetto, Bloomberg
Sept. 10, 2012

Utdrag:

Vale SA (VALE), the worst performer among major mining companies this quarter, is poised to reduce investments to the lowest in three years as prices for iron ore slump on slowing Chinese demand.

The biggest producer of the steel-making ingredient will approve a 2013 budget of $16.8 billion, 22 percent less than this year's $21.4 billion, according to the average estimate from six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Analysts cut estimates for Rio de Janeiro-based Vale's 2013 adjusted profit by 19 percent in the past four weeks, more than BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Sales Continue

The Brazilian company will continue selling assets, including its oil and gas business and a stake in aluminum producer Norsk Hydro ASA, said Marcos Assumpcao, an equity analyst at Banco Itau BBA SA.
______

Økende etterspørsel etter alumina (Al2O3).
Hydro er "long" alumina (og blir stadig med long?). Det burde styrke alumina-prisene.

MB 27th Intl Al conf: China, Middle East vie for alumina

Met.Bull.
Sept. 6, 2012

Aluminium producers in both China and the Middle East have two things in common: both are rapidly expanding their production, and both need to source raw materials externally.

The UAE's Dubai Aluminium (Dubal) and Emirates Aluminium (Emal) together need about 5 million tpy of alumina, which will increase to 6-7 million tpy on completion of Emal's second phase.

Meanwhile, Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) buys about 1.7 million tpy of alumina to feed its smelter in the island state, which is boosting aluminium capacity by 400,000 tpy to 1.3 million tpy.

In China, alumina imports more than doubled to 715,837 tonnes in May - more than five times the amount imported a year previously - due to the implementation of Indonesia's export ban on bauxite that fed the ma

Endret 12.09.2012 21:04 av OldNick
OldNick
21:14
12.09.2012
#13748

Og kineserne subsidierer...

China's aluminium output hits new high in August

Met.Bull.
Sept. 11, 2012

China's aluminium output jumped to a record high in August, as local government energy subsidies kept smelters in production during the traditionally quiet summer period.

Daily output averaged 56,452 tonnes, up 4.7% from July's level and 12.7% higher year-on-year, according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures.

Output in all of August was 1.75 million tonnes, 65,000 tonnes more than the previous monthly record of 1.685 million tonnes in June 2012.

Some local governments in China have been subsidising power tariffs for smelters to help them stay in production and competitive against new capacities in northwest regions since June.

Total production for the first eight months of 2012 was 13.098 million tonnes, representing year-on-year gains of 10.6%.
______

Det betales betydelig premiums for Al i Europa, >10% av LME-prisen.

European aluminium premiums resume climb

Met.Bull.
Sept. 10, 2012

Aluminium premiums resumed their climb last week after staying mostly flat over the northern summer months, as market tightness reasserted itself ahead of Metal Bulletin's conference and the start of 2013 contract negotiations.

MB's European duty-paid aluminium premium rose to $270-290 per tonne on Friday September 7, from $265-285 the previous week, while the mid-point of MB's European duty-unpaid premium ended the week at $214.20 per tonne, from $208.56 at the start of the week.

"It's picked up [since the slow summer period], and there are more and more requests from customers for the fourth quarter," a trader said. "Some are still quiet though, and are still waiting to see the rumours and gossip."

Demand is slowly increasing as consumers look to secure fourth-quarter volumes, but there has been little progress in discussing contract business for 2013 with European customers.

Mer på link
Babylon
21:53
12.09.2012
#2570

oldnick
hva er din vurdering av nhy? er man konk.dyktig med det meste av kapasitet i europa? er valere ett ess mhp at kina er short bauxitt? mener aa huske at du hadde god innsikt i bransjen, gjennom din jobb?
OldNick
13:09
14.09.2012
#13765

re. babylon,

jeg vil svare de litt senere.
______

Men, NHY's kraftige oppgang idag er nokså uventet.

Men, ute i resten av verden er det nesten like kraftige oppganger.

BHP, Rio, Anglo, Xstrata, Glencore, alle de store er opp 5-8% idag.

I Hong Kong var Rusal opp 9%.

Her er Rusal og Alcoa sammenlignet med NHY siste året. Rusal har virkelig lidd av den depressive Al-prisen.



Men, Hydro har fordeler:

- Kraftbiten (verdsatt til nesten 15/aksje)
- De er long Al2O3, motsatt for Rusal
- De har kuttet kapasitet hardere enn Rusal (og Alcoa)

Rusal er imidlertid optimister

Rusal sees aluminum premiums rising in next 18 months

By Polina Devitt (Reuters)
Sept. 13, 2012

MOSCOW - Russia's RUSAL (0486.HK), the world's largest producer of primary aluminum, said it expects aluminum premiums paid over the London Metal Exchange price to keep rising over the next year and a half.

"There are different scenarios of market development, including a decline, but we do not expect this during the next 18 months. Premiums will continue to rise," RUSAL First Deputy Chief Operating Officer Vladislav Soloviev told the Metal Bulletin aluminum conference in Moscow.

RUSAL also said it expected a shift in aluminum supply contracts away from fixed cash premiums to a floating premium that would allow producers to lock in their margins.

"We expect to see a tendency to have floating premiums related to the underlying commodity contract, where producers are able to fix the margin over casthouse costs," Steve Hodgson, RUSAL's director of international sales, said in a presentation at the conference.

Hodgson said cash premiums over prices on the London Metals Exchange had risen to 10-12 percent of underlying prices. In the past, RUSAL had offered fixed premiums when the premium-to-price ratio was much lower.

Mer på link

Endret 14.09.2012 13:13 av OldNick
gorwell
14:35
14.09.2012
#20857

Har vært ekstremt heldig med denne. Avhendet noen oktober 29 calls til 9 ganger innsatsen og har kjøpt litt 32 calls for å ta del i en ytterligere oppside.

Det er IKKE å håpe på at Moder Stat sikrer seg Vale`s aksjer. Selskapets aksjekurs har nok allerede reagert på Vale`s problemer. Den lagger i alle fall betydelig ift aluminiumsprisen.

Hydro har en syndikert 7-års flervaluta kredittfasilitet på 1,7 milliarder USD (~10 milliarder kroner) med utløp i juni 2014. Ikke trukket på per 31. desember 2010.

Da er det bedre at selskapet vurderer å låne litt pæng for å kjøpe aksjen til å ha på egen bok for oppgjør ved innfusjonering av interessante eiendeler og/eller til sletting etterhvert som cashflow`en tillater?

gorwell
nettopen
15:47
15.09.2012
#3004

Det som er driveren er vel at prisen på lme har steget med nesten 10% SISTE to ukene'
highlander
09:24
24.09.2012
#3067

Hydro taper 60-80 mill kr på salg
gorwell
10:35
28.09.2012
#20933

Jeg fortsetter å være ekstremt heldig med denne. Put-opsjoner er avhendet med innkjøp av noen dypere av samme forfallsmåned, så er gevinst sikret om det fortsetter nedover.

Det er også rullert calls, dvs kjøpt calls med lavere strike etterhvert som kursen har falt av. Og lagt ut noen høyere calls om det skulle være noen som vil prøve seg på en billig, spekulativ sak. Ikke det, legger man ut et lavere bud enn mitt ask, vil man nok kanskje bli hit`a, ja.

Aluminiumsprisen ser ut til å ha snudd nordover, fallet i aksjekursen ser ut til å være tatt ut. Jeg tror denne kommer til å gå nordover igjen herfra. Etter aluminiumsprisens utvikling å dømme (russer-fut`en), nokså kraftig og nokså snart.

Tipse, tipse om muligheten for OTM calls som kan gå mange, mange ganger innsatsen. Tar dere mine, all the better. Tar dere andres, so be it.

gorwell

Endret 28.09.2012 10:35 av gorwell
OldNick
21:08
28.09.2012
#13834

Limer inn en artikkel fra Metal Bulletins Aluminium Supplement magasin 2012, et spesialmagasin for Al-industrien utenom de daglige/ukentlige nyhets-magasinene.

Artikkelen er en status-rapport av Al-industrien pr. H1-2012

Hovedpunkter:
- Forbruker vokser fortsatt, 7.5% i 2011, 3.4% H1-2012
- China er altoverveidende dominans i Al-markedet med 40% smelter produksjon, og 42% av verdens Al-forbruk.
- Det har vært noe nedstengning, men forbausende lite. Kinesiske produsenter beskyttes av import-toll og subsidier, selv om de har blant den høyeste cash cost'en.
- Selv om børslagrene (LME++) er høye, er det meste låst i futures og andre finansielle avtaler
- De kortsiktige utsiktene er usikre, mens de lange er lyse...

Calling a messy primary market

Aluminium price falls over the past year have increased pressure on high-cost smelters, relieved in part by higher physical premiums. Production cuts have been lower than expected, while China's capacity climbs. Stocks stay high. Richard Barrett asks leading analysts what will happen next


Metal Bulletin Al supplement
September 2012

If any reminder were needed of the importance of China to world refined aluminium production, even the briefest glance at statistics for global production and consumption readily provides it. The nation produced more than 18 million tonnes last year - over 40% of the world total - according to WBMS data. It also accounted for about 42% of consumption. By contrast, Russia and Canada, the second and third largest producers, refined 16% of world primary production between them in 2011 (see tables).

Global output last year was 7.5% higher than in 2010 and, despite falling LME aluminium prices this year, production in the first half of 2012 was still over 3% greater than for the equivalent period in 2011. China's output climbed to a record rate of production during the first half of this year. It was up by almost 10% over the figure for January-June 2011 - at 800,000 tonnes more for the comparable period, roughly equivalent to Iceland's entire 2011 production.

Total world consumption is lagging production, but while European demand in the first half of this year was lower than for the first half of 2011, Asia's and the Americas' has climbed. China's consumption in that comparison period grew by 1 million tonnes according to the WBMS data - actually notably more than its production increase for the comparable periods.

Stocks on exchange remain high. Metal in LME-approved warehouses has stayed above 4.5 million tonnes for the past 12 months (see graph). Much of it remains locked up in financial deals, however, and with availability constrained, physical premiums have soared.

"The aluminium market is one of the most complex and confused of the base metal markets at present in terms of the relationship between fundamental dynamics and price performance," observes Nicholas Snowdon, base metals analyst, Barclays, New York.

Cutbacks falter

While high physical premiums have insulated high-cost smelters from lower LME aluminium prices to a degree, there have been one or two casualties of curtailment, such as Hydro's Kurri Kurri smelter in Australia. Overall though, production cutbacks have not been as sharp as expected early this year.

INTL FCStone analyst Ed Meir is sceptical about the depth of much-reported global cuts in primary aluminium production. "The pace of shutdowns has not been as great as you might think. While there have been little cuts made by western world smelters, China has not made significant cutbacks in the interests of supporting existing stimulus measures and maintaining employment." Smelting capacity is actually growing through China's investment in coal-based energy generation in the west of the country, he notes.

David B. Wilson, director, Metals Research and Strategy, Citi Research, concurs that there have not been sufficient production cuts: "While there has been much talk of cutbacks in Europe

Endret 28.09.2012 21:13 av OldNick
OldNick
21:17
28.09.2012
#13835

the US, and Australia, where Kurri Kurri has now actually closed, a combination of political negotiations and high physical premiums for ingot have helped to keep smelters earmarked for curtailment running."

"China has been a disappointment in terms of supply constraint this year," says Snowdon. "Given the cost structure of the Chinese market, we would have anticipated greater cutbacks in the country's major areas of aluminium smelting, such as in Henan Province." He adds that provincial governments have stepped in to support their local smelters in the interests of supporting their industrial base and employment.

Costs and prices

Wilson cautions against comparing Chinese smelter costs against LME aluminium prices. "The fact is that the world does not have just one cost curve to consider because China's smelters price against Shanghai prices which are typically $300/tonne higher than LME levels due to the impact of VAT on imported metal." With Shanghai prices averaging $2,450-$2,500/tonne this year, few Chinese smelters have been under significant cost pressure, he notes.

Meir points out that a $100/tonne fall in the aluminium base price has been more than offset by a $150/tonne increase in premiums. Queues at some LME-approved warehouses and metal tied up in financing deals have further served to cloud the market, he says. "The premium play is offsetting the market evolution based on supply-demand balance, making the whole process a bit slower."

Snowdon reminds that low interest rates are a key driver of the continuation of large amounts of aluminium inventories being tied up in financing deals. "Even when we have seen some metal being released from financing deals in the past when LME time spreads have tightened, the record size of the inventories acts as a counterbalancing mechanism, re-strengthening the contango and the economics of financing deals."

The upward trend in physical premiums is a consequence, which has in turn held back a supply response by smelters, he explains. "They typically receive as much as half of the premium, compensating to some extent for falls in the LME base price for aluminium."

Another impact there is new significant supply of bids from financiers for new metal produced, creating a constant demand. "Consequently some smelters that would otherwise be uneconomic, with production costs higher than LME metal prices, still don't have trouble selling their production," says Snowdon.

Macroeconomics matter

Overshadowing traditional supply-demand fundamentals, the macroeconomic picture is having a big influence on aluminium. "That will result in sluggish growth this year and next. The European situation has not been resolved yet and may well reach a crescendo when patchwork remedies fail to be enough," says Meir. "EU politicians will probably decide eventually that Greece has to leave the euro, give the Greek government some collateral to get their own independent currency going, but then hold the line on the rest of the countries affected by the euro debt crisis. All the signals seem to be pointing in that direction." Until the European situation resolves, a cloud will hang over all the metal
markets for a while, he concludes.

Wilson also links aluminium's prospects with the wider global economic situation: "It's difficult to be optimistic for aluminium at present, with US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke neither ruling out nor confirming the likelihood of further quantitative easing and little sign of expectations for a firm Chinese economic stimulus programme being fulfilled."

Meir says that the Chinese have excess production capacity in aluminium and simply not enough homes for it: "China's export markets are drying up and there simply isn't sufficient domestic demand to soak up that demand locally." He also points out that further central government infrastructure development plans are not coming forward.

He does not see any immediate drivers to get out of these macroeconomic problems: "We
OldNick
21:22
28.09.2012
#13836

already have zero interest rates. We've had the internet, real-estate and Chinese growth bubbles, but they are all behind us now. We're not sinking, but we're also not growing."

China's output climbs

Paul Adkins, managing director of China aluminium consultants AZ China, gives a clear view of the Chinese part of the aluminium equation.

In the last 12 months, China's state-owned smelters produced around 35% of the country's primary aluminium output (7 million tonnes), according to AZ China's Red Book. Adkins notes that official production numbers do not include all smelters. Privately owned smelters produced 7.5 million tonnes, publicly listed businesses produced 4.3 million tonnes and joint ventures around 0.6 million tonnes. Total output of a little over 19 million tonnes contrasts with estimated installed capacity of 23 million tpy.

State-owned smelters comprise Chalco and a couple of enterprises primarily concerned with energy production, but which have smelters as a secondary activity, Adkins points out. "Other smelters are owned by provinces, but of course no smelter in China is immune from some degree of central or local government intervention - not least through power prices - and consequently none can operate entirely independently."

Although government-owned smelters are inclined to get preferential power tariffs and tax incentives and include some of the 'star' smelters in their portfolios, they also include a few of the less efficient. China's rate of growth in capacity for primary aluminium smelting is forecast to be around 10% per annum - roughly in line with demand by AZ China's estimates. Almost all of the growth will be in Northwest China, where costs are low.

AZ China estimates that an additional 900,000 tonnes of aluminium will be produced by new Chinese smelters in Q3 2012, 800,000 tonnes in Q4 and an extra 250,000 tonnes in Q1 2013. The final additional capacity provided by these smelters (nine starting up in Q3 2012, two in Q4 and another two in Q1 2013) when they are fully operational will be considerably greater.

Snowdon says that in the western Chinese provinces, most notably Xinjiang, the pace of smelting capacity growth this year has actually been slower than initially anticipated, but production is still expected to climb in the region. "Overall, we are unlikely to see any significant constraint on Chinese production going forward given lower cost of production for this new capacity. The country is unlikely to see a sustained period of deficit because it has more than enough capacity. Some imports of primary metal may be drawn in by a price arbitrage window, but there is no real fundamental support for imports to rise. We are still seeing semis exports from China, so there is a counterbalancing trade flow there."

China is largely a neutral factor over the next 12 months, says Snowdon.

Adkins says that Western world smelters have little immediate cause to fear ingot exports from China's expanding aluminium smelter base since present economics simply do not encourage them while Shanghai (SHFE) prices are $200-$300/tonne higher than LME, even after differences between Chinese and European premiums, and would demand a significant government subsidy to make it happen.

He says that is not the central government's goal - providing more jobs is - and that there are other steps it would be likely to take to promote the aluminium industry before providing such export subsidies: "they might offer low-interest loans or forgive bad debts for example."

Aluminium exports as semis or finished products, such as in extrusions or alloy wheels - both of which have already attracted WTO attention - are a more "insidious" threat, but European and US trade bodies are keeping a close eye on Chinese exports and are poised to jump on anything that looks like dumping.

A lacklustre outlook

The consensus view of analysts from Metal Bulletin's quarterly Apex update is for aluminium prices to drift upwards (see graph), b
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