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Avance Gas Holding
highlander
21.05.2015 15:54
#4396

Oppdatert teknisk analyse fra Aksjeanalyser.com:



"Avance Gas Holding viser en positiv utvikling, og har etablert en stigende trend hvor videre oppgang for aksjen signaliseres i tiden fremover.

Etter å ha konsolidert i det korte bildet så vender aksjen nå oppover igjen, og har nå brutt opp gjennom et viktig teknisk motstandsnivå rundt 123,00 kroner.

Det er nå støtte ned mot 120,00-123,00 kroner ved korreksjoner ned for aksjen.

Både RSI og Stochastics momentum-indikatorer signaliserer nå videre oppgang for aksjen i tiden fremover.

MACD momentum-indikator har også nylig utløst nytt kjøpssignal for Avance Gas Holding, og er således med og underbygger de øvrige positive tekniske signaler for aksjen.

Potensialet for aksjen i henhold til den langsiktige stigende trenden vurderes til å være opp mot 150,00 kroner på 3-6 måneders sikt.

Basert på dette samlede positive tekniske bildet for Avance Gas Holding så vurderer vi aksjen som en interessant kjøpskandidat på dagens kursnivå.

Vi har kursmål for Avance Gas Holding ved 150,00 kroner på 3-6 måneders sikt. Vi ser altså en oppside for Avance Gas Holding på rundt 20 prosent opp fra dagens kursnivå på 3-6 måneders sikt. "
Beins
22.05.2015 12:54
#7283

Avance er optimistisk trass i den noe absurde ordreboken i bransjen på 50% av nåværende tonnasje.

OUTLOOK

VLGC shipping demand continues to be driven by exports from the Middle East and increased exports from the United States.
The Sunoco/Lone Star terminal in Texas commenced exports in February and reached volumes of eight cargoes in February 2015, or an estimated 3.6 million tons annually. The second new US export facility
planned for 2015, the new Enterprise terminal, will commence operations in early Q3 2015. The added volumes are expected to maintain fleet utilization above 95%, which normally supports strong freight rates.
A key driver of the freight market is the volume of exports from the US Gulf to Asia. In 2014, Asia received 23% of US Gulf direct export volumes, and increased exports from the US Gulf to Asia will support continued
high utilization rates. The orderbook remains high, with about 50% of the existing fleet on order for delivery in 2015 and 2016. The
growth in US LPG production, and the continued growth in Asian imports, is expected to absorb the fleet
growth and support healthy utilization rates for the next 12-to-18 months.
Avance Gas is employing the fleet in the spot market and on spot-indexed time charters. As ships are
generally fixed 4-to-6 weeks prior to loading, the freight market will at any given time need similar time to
be reflected in the Company's financial accounts.
gorwell
22.05.2015 15:08
#21942

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20150522.OBI.20150522S32

Veldig rundt nummer, kan være en interessent -1- som har kjøpt seg inn. Det vil i så fall være positivt. Trenger ikke være en -1- interessent. Er aksjene spredt for alle vinder, vil jeg holde det som ytterst negativt.

gorwell
oppside
22.05.2015 15:15
#1164

Og de som eier aksjen natt til onsdag 27. mai, får ca 5.- i utbytte for ET kvartal. Så blir det bedre :)

Avance Gas ser positivt på andre kvartal, og gitt et likt marked vil utbytte bli høyere grunnet flere skip i drift, melder TDN Finans.

Cash maskin.

oppside
22.05.2015 15:16
#1165

I andre kvartal føler vi ikke at det er noe usikkerhet i det hele tatt. Det ser veldig hyggelig ut, sa adm. direktør Christian Andersen under dagens kvartalspresentasjon.

- Utbyttet i første kvartal var lavere enn det burde ha vært. Dersom markedet i andre kvartal blir likt som i første, vil utbyttet gå opp fordi vi har flere skip i drift. Hvis markedet i tillegg er sterkere er det definitivt oppsidepotensial, påpekte han.
gorwell
22.05.2015 16:44
#21944

Så er det en -1- interessent som har kjøp seg inn og ikke to som har redusert sin eksponering. Det er positivt.

gorwell
highlander
25.05.2015 00:42
#4414

Avance Gas tas ut av Dovreporteføljen kommende uke. Dermed kan det være duket for en aldri så liten "Myrseth-effekt" rett over pinse.
Utmothavet
26.06.2015 17:02
#11546

Fearnleys Weekly - Gas - week 26

Chartering

The direction of the VLGC freight curve was already set when June started, and this week the Baltic freight index has moved into the USD 120's and corresponding daily returns exceeding USD 110,000. Between now and the middle of July tonnage availability is very, very scarce (everywhere) and those unfortunate charterers, if any, who are caught short freight over the next 3 weeks will have to put much higher levels on the table. The arbitrage from the West to the East was for a while open even considering the current high spot rates, and those with cheaper TC tonnage as well as COAs have been drawing a lot of freight capacity out of the market under these circumstances. On top the Indian charteres have been busy floating spot freight inquiries which has supported the strong freight momentum through the month. The last couple of days the cargo market seems to have cooled off a bit, and we could have a period of freight slowdown coming - now the gas appetite in the East is not what it was the last couple of weeks. Do we think VLGC spot rates will come off ? No, we foresee a continued strong market until the 2015 newbuildings start to impact the fleet balance some time towards the end of 3rd quarter. Spot rates have peaked in the mid USD 120's MEG/Far East for now, though.


Utmothavet
26.06.2015 17:04
#11547

Research Report - 26 Jun 2015
Sector: Shipping
Analysts Eirik Haavaldsen, Øystein Dalby

BUY them for their dividends
We argue that the yields are more sustainable than current share prices suggest, and reiterate our positive outlook on the VLGC-market. We expect a strong market through the summer season, as the newbuild delivery pace has been slower than expected (so far) and commodity prices (and price spreads) are moving in the right directions. Import data from China is particularly encouraging so far this year, and with no imminent effect from Indian infrastructure investments we expect congestion there to continue to contribute positively to fleet utilization as well. We are starting to see term-charters that are bridging the supply overhang in 2016/17 at supportive levels, and expect rates to average USD 50,000/day (45,000) and 35,000/day in 2017 - still a level that provides solid equity return. Reiterate BUY on VLGC-players, AVANCE and AURLPG as top picks.

US propane flowing quicker and longer than we expected
The VLGC market is to a large extend becoming a bet on continued US LPG production. The collapse of oil prices and onshore rig count has so far not succeeded in bringing the resilient shale gas production down, and based on our in-house oil price view of USD 75/bbl we expect production to continue to be strong. Exports have actually been on a declining trend this spring, but we expect volumes to return as newbuild deliveries start to increase - and spot rates inevitably correct downwards. The main risk to our thesis in the near term is a significant softening of oil prices, which again would harm sentiment and US production.

"Chindia" absorbing more than expected - the propane finds a home
May-imports were up 30% and 17% y/y for India and China respectively, and year-to-date imports from the two booming countries are up 16% and 60% respectively. Retail-demand is the driving force in India, while PDH-plants in China are resulting in a sharp increase in imports as well. While India will struggle due to limited port infrastructure, this is not expected to be a bottle-neck in China. Should the trend continue, the two countries with more than 25% of the world's population will see increased demand of ~5m tons in 2015 compared with 2014. We believe the propane will flow - with the only dark cloud being a potential issue on the supply side in the US as this is the only region where exports can increase enough to satisfy the Asian hunger.

BUY the sector but favour the spot-focused dividend-chasers
2015 is proving to be the second year of true super-profits for the VLGCs, and as we expect 2016 to pose solid returns as well. We value the shares based on 2015/16 direct return potential, and apply a longer term multiple on 2017 (more normalized) earnings. Avance Gas stands out as the spot player with the visible dividend strategy, and we expect a total of NOK 65 of dividends through 2016. Reiterate BUY with TP unchanged at NOK 188. Aurora LPG has outperformed virtually all of its peers so far, but the share price has been held back due to lack of dividend-potential. We believe this could be changed and see potential for newbuild-divestments, which could unlock a special dividend of large size. We like their "strong-balance-sheets-are-for-lazy-management" approach and reiterate BUY with TP of NOK 95 (104). BW LPG is the long-term long candidate, with contract coverage and a solid organization behind them. Their chartering-strategy is not ideal for a 100k/day+ market, and the company will continue to struggle with the "black-box"-stamp in this booming market. Yet, we see ~NOK 18 paid out as dividend through 2016, and applying a 6x multiple on 2017e EPS of NOK 10 then gives us a TP of NOK 79 (84). Dorian LPG has now started the quest to put a significant part of their state-of-the-art fleet on TCs to oil majors, and we calculate a fully invested EPS of USD 1.9 on conservative rate estimates. Reiterate BUY TP USD 21 (27)
highlander
29.06.2015 22:26
#4599

DnB Markets omrokerer i porteføljen av foretrukne aksjer denne uken.

Ut av porteføljen går bilskipsrederiet Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA, mens gassrederiet Avance Gas slippes inn.

- Vi oppgraderte fredag anbefalingene innen LPG-sektoren og blant aktørene i dette segmentet venter vi spesielt stigende fokus på utbyttepotensialet i Avance Gas. Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling på Avance Gas med et kursmål på 182 kroner per aksje, skriver DNB Markets i en aksjerapport.
Utmothavet
23.07.2015 11:30
#11549

Fearnleys Weekly - Gas - week 30

Chartering

The activity level in the VLGC market East has eased off and again the Baltic freight index has corrected down for as long as it may last. The arbitrage for current spot rates in the West is fully closed and the USG/Atlantic market has been very calm, and again talks of USG cargo cancellations have surfaced, however, no cancellations are confirmed. A few freight inquiries for September loading in the USG has been floated, but most likely will/can only be fixed on relet vessels offering well below current spot market. In the East there have been some Indian enquiries even one for prompt loading following a machinery breakdown on a vessel fixed earlier. A few charterers have been offering their vessels as August relets and have signalled freight rates lower than the Baltic, and this has had a negative impact on the index. The reason for the relets being floated is obvious when FOB MEG versus obtainable CFR prices is way below the current spot rates i.e. there could be more money to be made on freight than on trading own tonnage. The number of August spot cargoes that need freight from the market will decide how the Baltic and the actual rates go from here, at the moment it is somewhat unclear how many inquiries there will be. Another NB VLGC was added to the fleet a few days ago, that was number 13 of this year.




OldNick
27.08.2015 11:23
#17237

Avance Gas leverte Q2-2015 resultat idag.

Gode resultater, og godt utbytte: US$1.20/aksje

AVANCE: Avance Gas Holding Ltd Reports Unaudited Results For Q2-2015

Børsmelding
27.08.2015

Bermuda - Avance Gas Holding Ltd (OSE: AVANCE) today reported unaudited results for Q2-2015.

Freight rates continued to strengthen in Q2; the Board declares dividend of $1.20 per share:

- The average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate for the fleet in Q2-2015 was $86,938/day, up from $64,832/day in Q1-2015.

- TCE earnings in Q2-2015 were $59.1 million, compared with $40.0 million in Q1 2015 reflecting the stronger market and an increase in operating days following the return to service of Monsoon and Breeze.

- Average daily operating expenses for Q2-2015 were $7,447/day, down from $9,053/day in Q1 2015. The average OPEX for H1-2015 was $8,177/day.

- The Avance Gas Board declares dividend of $1.20 per share. The shares will trade ex-dividend on and after 31 August 2015.

Significant recent events

- Monsoon and Breeze both completed warranty repairs to their stern tube bearings and re-entered service in mid-June and are now employed on their second voyages since the repairs.

- On 1 June 2015, Avance Gas was added to the Oslo Børs Benchmark Index, which comprises the most liquid stocks on the Oslo Stock Exchange.

- On 29 June 2015, Avance Gas took delivery of Passat, the fourth of the company's eight newbuildings. In early August, she loaded her first cargo in the Middle East for discharge in India.

- Sirocco, the fifth newbuilding from Jiangnan Shipyard, was delivered on 17 July 2015 and was fixed on her first voyage, loading in the Middle East at the end of August for discharge in India.

- The sixth ship in the series, Levant, was delivered on 18 August 2015 and is expected to complete gassing up operations in Indonesia in mid-September.

The Sunoco/Lone Star terminal in Nederland, Texas, commenced LPG exports in February 2015, becoming the third VLGC export terminal in US Gulf, in addition to Enterprise and Targa. The increased LPG exports improved global VLGC utilization, causing the LPG freight market to strengthen. The Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index averaged $84,531/day in Q2-2015, up from $71,231/day in Q1-2015.

The full report and interim financial statements is attached to this press
release.

For further queries, please contact:
Christian Andersen, President, Tel: +47 2200 4805, E-mail: c.andersen@avancegas.com
Peder C. G. Simonsen, CFO, Tel: +47 2200 4815, E-mail: p.simonsen@avancegas.com

Avance Gas: Q2-2015 Financial Result (PDF)

Avance Gas: Q2-2015 Interim Financial Statments (PDF)
Beins
27.08.2015 12:52
#7651

Rundt 10 kr aksjen i kvartalsvis utbytte høres helt utrolig ut, men AVANCE tjener penger som gress. Dog er ratene sesongmessig på hell, og de skal nok svekkes videre fram mot jul. Og så kommer nykontraheringene som fyller opp markedet framover.

Følgelig ikke så positive utsikter som ved første øyekast. Kursen ligger på 121 kr. Etter en dobbel topp på 147 har det gått nedover.

Så selv om man får et gigantisk utbytte , ville jeg ikke kjøpt denne aksjen nå.

Man bør i stedet vurdere situasjonen ut på vinteren. Om markedet klarer å absorbere den store flåteveksten.
highlander
21.12.2015 15:21
#5200

Nedgraderer tre gassrederier

Etter kursoppgang i 2015 nedgraderer DNB Markets anbefalingene på tre gassrederier.

- Så langt i år er kursene i Avance Gas, BW LPG og Aurora LPG opp henholdsvis 58 prosent, 74 prosent og 26 prosent. Verdsettelsene ligger nå tett opp mot våre estimater for netto underliggende verdi, påpeker meglerhuset i en aksjerapport.

DNB Markets ser på kort sikt fortsatt potensial for stigende rater innen LPG-shipping, men venter redusert tonn-mil etterspørsel inn i andre halvår 2016.

- Både flåtevekst i dette segmentet og utvidelsen av Panamakanalen vil på mellomlang sikt kunne gi noe dempet kapasitetsutnyttelse. Når det gjelder risiko for nedside i aksjene mener vi denne er begrenset som følge av de forventede attraktive utbyttenivåene.

- Vi har dermed tatt anbefalingene på Avance Gas, BW LPG og Aurora LPG ned fra kjøp til hold. Kursmålene er justert til henholdsvis NOK 126 pr aksje, NOK 79 pr aksje og NOK 73 pr aksje, fortsetter DNB Markets.
Profitt
23.02.2016 18:34
#14849

Nå har kursen halvert seg, high !
Hvorfor har du sluppet taket?
highlander
30.03.2016 16:16
#5981

Nordea Markets reduserer sine estimater på LPG eksport fra USA og kutter antatte spotrater og skipsverdier for LPG-flåten betydelig.

Som en følge av dette har meglerhuset nedgradert Avance Gas fra hold til salg, og reduserer samtidig kursmålet fra 82 til 55 kr pr aksje.
highlander
01.04.2016 10:33
#5994

Carnegie er uenig med Nordea, og er meget positiv til ratene fremover grunnet antatte prisøkninger på LPG i Østen og dermed høyere fraktrater.

Meglerhuset har et kursmål på 100 kr pr aksje i Avance gas.
Profitt
02.04.2016 09:41
#14866

Da må en bare tenke selv- noen må tape for at andre skal vinne , high 😏
Profitt
27.04.2016 19:53
#14867

Ser de betaler bra utbytte og ratene forventes opp.
Dessuten var vel 1. Kvt bra?

Har tatt litt her .
highlander
02.05.2016 09:17
#6128

Godt poeng, Profitt #14866.

Nordea Markets fortsetter imidlertid å være negativ til aksjen; i en oppdatering i forrige uke gjentok de salg og nedjustererte kursmålet i Avance Gas fra 53 til 48 kr pr aksje.
highlander
20.09.2016 14:23
#6429

Sparebank1 Markets opererer nå med en kjøpsanbefaling på Avance Gas og kursmål på 39 kr pr aksje.
highlander
07.10.2016 17:58
#6464

Basert på DNB Markets estimater for 2018 prises LPG-selskapene Avance Gas og BW LPG til en P/E på henholdsvis 4,1 og 4,5. Videre fremholder DNB at selskapene hhv. noteres til pris/bok på 0,35 og 0,41 (da analyseoppdateringen kom for et par dager siden)

Meglerhuset anbefaler kjøp av begge rederiene med kursmål på hhv. 41 kr og 43 kr pr aksje.
highlander
26.10.2016 00:34
#6521

I en analyseoppdatering er Norne Securities positiv til LPG-segmentet.

Meglerhuset anbefaler kjøp av Avance Gas og BW LPG, med kursmål henholdsvis 35 og 40 kr.
highlander
11.11.2016 14:04
#6589

Nordea Markets, som tidligere reduserte kursmålet til 17 kr pr aksje, øker det nå til 20 kr i en analyseoppdatering, der meglerhuset gjentar hold-anbefalingen.
highlander
25.11.2016 03:54
#6626

DNB Markets reduserer kursmålet i BWLPG fra 43,00 til 37,50 i en analyseoppdatering og gjentar kjøp, mens kursmålet i Avance reduseres fra 33 til 28 kr.

Meglerhuset fremholder at BWLPG på de fleste verdsettelsesmetoder er om lag like billig som Avance, men er mer solvent og således mindre risikofylt.
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