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Avance Gas Holding
22.05.2015 15:16

I andre kvartal føler vi ikke at det er noe usikkerhet i det hele tatt. Det ser veldig hyggelig ut, sa adm. direktør Christian Andersen under dagens kvartalspresentasjon.

- Utbyttet i første kvartal var lavere enn det burde ha vært. Dersom markedet i andre kvartal blir likt som i første, vil utbyttet gå opp fordi vi har flere skip i drift. Hvis markedet i tillegg er sterkere er det definitivt oppsidepotensial, påpekte han.
22.05.2015 16:44

Så er det en -1- interessent som har kjøp seg inn og ikke to som har redusert sin eksponering. Det er positivt.

25.05.2015 00:42

Avance Gas tas ut av Dovreporteføljen kommende uke. Dermed kan det være duket for en aldri så liten "Myrseth-effekt" rett over pinse.
26.06.2015 17:02

Fearnleys Weekly - Gas - week 26


The direction of the VLGC freight curve was already set when June started, and this week the Baltic freight index has moved into the USD 120's and corresponding daily returns exceeding USD 110,000. Between now and the middle of July tonnage availability is very, very scarce (everywhere) and those unfortunate charterers, if any, who are caught short freight over the next 3 weeks will have to put much higher levels on the table. The arbitrage from the West to the East was for a while open even considering the current high spot rates, and those with cheaper TC tonnage as well as COAs have been drawing a lot of freight capacity out of the market under these circumstances. On top the Indian charteres have been busy floating spot freight inquiries which has supported the strong freight momentum through the month. The last couple of days the cargo market seems to have cooled off a bit, and we could have a period of freight slowdown coming - now the gas appetite in the East is not what it was the last couple of weeks. Do we think VLGC spot rates will come off ? No, we foresee a continued strong market until the 2015 newbuildings start to impact the fleet balance some time towards the end of 3rd quarter. Spot rates have peaked in the mid USD 120's MEG/Far East for now, though.

26.06.2015 17:04

Research Report - 26 Jun 2015
Sector: Shipping
Analysts Eirik Haavaldsen, Øystein Dalby

BUY them for their dividends
We argue that the yields are more sustainable than current share prices suggest, and reiterate our positive outlook on the VLGC-market. We expect a strong market through the summer season, as the newbuild delivery pace has been slower than expected (so far) and commodity prices (and price spreads) are moving in the right directions. Import data from China is particularly encouraging so far this year, and with no imminent effect from Indian infrastructure investments we expect congestion there to continue to contribute positively to fleet utilization as well. We are starting to see term-charters that are bridging the supply overhang in 2016/17 at supportive levels, and expect rates to average USD 50,000/day (45,000) and 35,000/day in 2017 - still a level that provides solid equity return. Reiterate BUY on VLGC-players, AVANCE and AURLPG as top picks.

US propane flowing quicker and longer than we expected
The VLGC market is to a large extend becoming a bet on continued US LPG production. The collapse of oil prices and onshore rig count has so far not succeeded in bringing the resilient shale gas production down, and based on our in-house oil price view of USD 75/bbl we expect production to continue to be strong. Exports have actually been on a declining trend this spring, but we expect volumes to return as newbuild deliveries start to increase - and spot rates inevitably correct downwards. The main risk to our thesis in the near term is a significant softening of oil prices, which again would harm sentiment and US production.

"Chindia" absorbing more than expected - the propane finds a home
May-imports were up 30% and 17% y/y for India and China respectively, and year-to-date imports from the two booming countries are up 16% and 60% respectively. Retail-demand is the driving force in India, while PDH-plants in China are resulting in a sharp increase in imports as well. While India will struggle due to limited port infrastructure, this is not expected to be a bottle-neck in China. Should the trend continue, the two countries with more than 25% of the world's population will see increased demand of ~5m tons in 2015 compared with 2014. We believe the propane will flow - with the only dark cloud being a potential issue on the supply side in the US as this is the only region where exports can increase enough to satisfy the Asian hunger.

BUY the sector but favour the spot-focused dividend-chasers
2015 is proving to be the second year of true super-profits for the VLGCs, and as we expect 2016 to pose solid returns as well. We value the shares based on 2015/16 direct return potential, and apply a longer term multiple on 2017 (more normalized) earnings. Avance Gas stands out as the spot player with the visible dividend strategy, and we expect a total of NOK 65 of dividends through 2016. Reiterate BUY with TP unchanged at NOK 188. Aurora LPG has outperformed virtually all of its peers so far, but the share price has been held back due to lack of dividend-potential. We believe this could be changed and see potential for newbuild-divestments, which could unlock a special dividend of large size. We like their "strong-balance-sheets-are-for-lazy-management" approach and reiterate BUY with TP of NOK 95 (104). BW LPG is the long-term long candidate, with contract coverage and a solid organization behind them. Their chartering-strategy is not ideal for a 100k/day+ market, and the company will continue to struggle with the "black-box"-stamp in this booming market. Yet, we see ~NOK 18 paid out as dividend through 2016, and applying a 6x multiple on 2017e EPS of NOK 10 then gives us a TP of NOK 79 (84). Dorian LPG has now started the quest to put a significant part of their state-of-the-art fleet on TCs to oil majors, and we calculate a fully invested EPS of USD 1.9 on conservative rate estimates. Reiterate BUY TP USD 21 (27)
29.06.2015 22:26

DnB Markets omrokerer i porteføljen av foretrukne aksjer denne uken.

Ut av porteføljen går bilskipsrederiet Wilh. Wilhelmsen ASA, mens gassrederiet Avance Gas slippes inn.

- Vi oppgraderte fredag anbefalingene innen LPG-sektoren og blant aktørene i dette segmentet venter vi spesielt stigende fokus på utbyttepotensialet i Avance Gas. Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling på Avance Gas med et kursmål på 182 kroner per aksje, skriver DNB Markets i en aksjerapport.
23.07.2015 11:30

Fearnleys Weekly - Gas - week 30


The activity level in the VLGC market East has eased off and again the Baltic freight index has corrected down for as long as it may last. The arbitrage for current spot rates in the West is fully closed and the USG/Atlantic market has been very calm, and again talks of USG cargo cancellations have surfaced, however, no cancellations are confirmed. A few freight inquiries for September loading in the USG has been floated, but most likely will/can only be fixed on relet vessels offering well below current spot market. In the East there have been some Indian enquiries even one for prompt loading following a machinery breakdown on a vessel fixed earlier. A few charterers have been offering their vessels as August relets and have signalled freight rates lower than the Baltic, and this has had a negative impact on the index. The reason for the relets being floated is obvious when FOB MEG versus obtainable CFR prices is way below the current spot rates i.e. there could be more money to be made on freight than on trading own tonnage. The number of August spot cargoes that need freight from the market will decide how the Baltic and the actual rates go from here, at the moment it is somewhat unclear how many inquiries there will be. Another NB VLGC was added to the fleet a few days ago, that was number 13 of this year.

27.08.2015 11:23

Avance Gas leverte Q2-2015 resultat idag.

Gode resultater, og godt utbytte: US$1.20/aksje

AVANCE: Avance Gas Holding Ltd Reports Unaudited Results For Q2-2015


Bermuda - Avance Gas Holding Ltd (OSE: AVANCE) today reported unaudited results for Q2-2015.

Freight rates continued to strengthen in Q2; the Board declares dividend of $1.20 per share:

- The average time charter equivalent (TCE) rate for the fleet in Q2-2015 was $86,938/day, up from $64,832/day in Q1-2015.

- TCE earnings in Q2-2015 were $59.1 million, compared with $40.0 million in Q1 2015 reflecting the stronger market and an increase in operating days following the return to service of Monsoon and Breeze.

- Average daily operating expenses for Q2-2015 were $7,447/day, down from $9,053/day in Q1 2015. The average OPEX for H1-2015 was $8,177/day.

- The Avance Gas Board declares dividend of $1.20 per share. The shares will trade ex-dividend on and after 31 August 2015.

Significant recent events

- Monsoon and Breeze both completed warranty repairs to their stern tube bearings and re-entered service in mid-June and are now employed on their second voyages since the repairs.

- On 1 June 2015, Avance Gas was added to the Oslo Børs Benchmark Index, which comprises the most liquid stocks on the Oslo Stock Exchange.

- On 29 June 2015, Avance Gas took delivery of Passat, the fourth of the company's eight newbuildings. In early August, she loaded her first cargo in the Middle East for discharge in India.

- Sirocco, the fifth newbuilding from Jiangnan Shipyard, was delivered on 17 July 2015 and was fixed on her first voyage, loading in the Middle East at the end of August for discharge in India.

- The sixth ship in the series, Levant, was delivered on 18 August 2015 and is expected to complete gassing up operations in Indonesia in mid-September.

The Sunoco/Lone Star terminal in Nederland, Texas, commenced LPG exports in February 2015, becoming the third VLGC export terminal in US Gulf, in addition to Enterprise and Targa. The increased LPG exports improved global VLGC utilization, causing the LPG freight market to strengthen. The Avance Gas Spot VLGC Index averaged $84,531/day in Q2-2015, up from $71,231/day in Q1-2015.

The full report and interim financial statements is attached to this press

For further queries, please contact:
Christian Andersen, President, Tel: +47 2200 4805, E-mail: c.andersen@avancegas.com
Peder C. G. Simonsen, CFO, Tel: +47 2200 4815, E-mail: p.simonsen@avancegas.com

Avance Gas: Q2-2015 Financial Result (PDF)

Avance Gas: Q2-2015 Interim Financial Statments (PDF)
27.08.2015 12:52

Rundt 10 kr aksjen i kvartalsvis utbytte høres helt utrolig ut, men AVANCE tjener penger som gress. Dog er ratene sesongmessig på hell, og de skal nok svekkes videre fram mot jul. Og så kommer nykontraheringene som fyller opp markedet framover.

Følgelig ikke så positive utsikter som ved første øyekast. Kursen ligger på 121 kr. Etter en dobbel topp på 147 har det gått nedover.

Så selv om man får et gigantisk utbytte , ville jeg ikke kjøpt denne aksjen nå.

Man bør i stedet vurdere situasjonen ut på vinteren. Om markedet klarer å absorbere den store flåteveksten.
21.12.2015 15:21

Nedgraderer tre gassrederier

Etter kursoppgang i 2015 nedgraderer DNB Markets anbefalingene på tre gassrederier.

- Så langt i år er kursene i Avance Gas, BW LPG og Aurora LPG opp henholdsvis 58 prosent, 74 prosent og 26 prosent. Verdsettelsene ligger nå tett opp mot våre estimater for netto underliggende verdi, påpeker meglerhuset i en aksjerapport.

DNB Markets ser på kort sikt fortsatt potensial for stigende rater innen LPG-shipping, men venter redusert tonn-mil etterspørsel inn i andre halvår 2016.

- Både flåtevekst i dette segmentet og utvidelsen av Panamakanalen vil på mellomlang sikt kunne gi noe dempet kapasitetsutnyttelse. Når det gjelder risiko for nedside i aksjene mener vi denne er begrenset som følge av de forventede attraktive utbyttenivåene.

- Vi har dermed tatt anbefalingene på Avance Gas, BW LPG og Aurora LPG ned fra kjøp til hold. Kursmålene er justert til henholdsvis NOK 126 pr aksje, NOK 79 pr aksje og NOK 73 pr aksje, fortsetter DNB Markets.
23.02.2016 18:34

Nå har kursen halvert seg, high !
Hvorfor har du sluppet taket?
30.03.2016 16:16

Nordea Markets reduserer sine estimater på LPG eksport fra USA og kutter antatte spotrater og skipsverdier for LPG-flåten betydelig.

Som en følge av dette har meglerhuset nedgradert Avance Gas fra hold til salg, og reduserer samtidig kursmålet fra 82 til 55 kr pr aksje.
01.04.2016 10:33

Carnegie er uenig med Nordea, og er meget positiv til ratene fremover grunnet antatte prisøkninger på LPG i Østen og dermed høyere fraktrater.

Meglerhuset har et kursmål på 100 kr pr aksje i Avance gas.
02.04.2016 09:41

Da må en bare tenke selv- noen må tape for at andre skal vinne , high 😏
27.04.2016 19:53

Ser de betaler bra utbytte og ratene forventes opp.
Dessuten var vel 1. Kvt bra?

Har tatt litt her .
02.05.2016 09:17

Godt poeng, Profitt #14866.

Nordea Markets fortsetter imidlertid å være negativ til aksjen; i en oppdatering i forrige uke gjentok de salg og nedjustererte kursmålet i Avance Gas fra 53 til 48 kr pr aksje.
20.09.2016 14:23

Sparebank1 Markets opererer nå med en kjøpsanbefaling på Avance Gas og kursmål på 39 kr pr aksje.
07.10.2016 17:58

Basert på DNB Markets estimater for 2018 prises LPG-selskapene Avance Gas og BW LPG til en P/E på henholdsvis 4,1 og 4,5. Videre fremholder DNB at selskapene hhv. noteres til pris/bok på 0,35 og 0,41 (da analyseoppdateringen kom for et par dager siden)

Meglerhuset anbefaler kjøp av begge rederiene med kursmål på hhv. 41 kr og 43 kr pr aksje.
26.10.2016 00:34

I en analyseoppdatering er Norne Securities positiv til LPG-segmentet.

Meglerhuset anbefaler kjøp av Avance Gas og BW LPG, med kursmål henholdsvis 35 og 40 kr.
11.11.2016 14:04

Nordea Markets, som tidligere reduserte kursmålet til 17 kr pr aksje, øker det nå til 20 kr i en analyseoppdatering, der meglerhuset gjentar hold-anbefalingen.
25.11.2016 03:54

DNB Markets reduserer kursmålet i BWLPG fra 43,00 til 37,50 i en analyseoppdatering og gjentar kjøp, mens kursmålet i Avance reduseres fra 33 til 28 kr.

Meglerhuset fremholder at BWLPG på de fleste verdsettelsesmetoder er om lag like billig som Avance, men er mer solvent og således mindre risikofylt.
22.12.2016 13:09

DNB Markets kom i går med sin shippingrapport hvor de foretrekker tørrbulk, LPG og LNG, mens meglerhuset fortsatt mener at man bør holde seg unna tank.

DNB Markets anbefalte i denne rapporten kjøp av følgende aksjer:
Golden Ocean (kursmål: 45 kr), Avance Gas (28 kr), Høegh LNG (125 kr) og Stolt Nielsen (142 kr).
24.12.2016 01:15

LPG-rederiene har steget kraftig den siste måneden etter voldsomt kursfall tidligere i år. Avance Gas-sjef Christian Andersen er likevel litt skeptisk til markedet neste år ettersom det kommer 26 nye skip på markedet mot 44 skip levert i år. Han er dog optimistisk for det første kvartalet av det nye året da økt USA-eksport vil medføre en knapphet på skip. (Kilde: FA/Xi)
05.01.2017 15:56

Nordea Markets spår en gjeninnhenting i LPG-markedet.

Som en følge av dette oppgraderer meglerhuset både BW LPG og Avance Gas fra hold til kjøp.

Samtidig oppjusterer Nordea kursmålene hhv. fra 28 til 46 kr og fra 20 til 39,50 kr.
10.01.2017 14:15

Avance Gas-sjef Christian Andersen tror VLGC-markedet vil falle tilbake fra senere tids rateoppgang når årets nybygg leveres , særlig i slutten av første og begynnelsen av andre kvartal. (Kilde: Xi)
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