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Sjømat på Oslo Børs (3)
chateau
06.07.2017 16:31
#8026

Kraftig norsk laksevekst i USA
Eksporten av norsk laks til USA har økt med over 50 prosent. Amerikanerne vil ha stadig mer laks, men en proteksjonistisk Trump kan stoppe veksten.

Kraftig norsk laksevekst i USA
chateau
06.07.2017 16:33
#8027

- Blir fort et par hundre millioner
Mens Europa-ferien kan bli dyr for nordmenn denne sommeren, er den svake kronekursen godt nytt for oppdrettere som selger laks til markedene i eurosonen.
delta
06.07.2017 19:24
#22382

4-5 omsettes spot for NOK 60 i dag. 3-4 et par kr lavere. Så får vi se hvordan det blir for neste uke. EURNOK hele 9,53 nå med Brent under USD 50/fat.

Oppsummert ser snittprisene spot for 2. kvartal (og 1. kvartal) slik ut:
Norge NSI All Size: NOK 67,70/kg (NOK 65,40), dvs. +3,5% fra 1. kvartal
Seattle Urner Barry 10-12 lb whole fish: USD 3,38/lb (4,00/lb), dvs. -15% fra 1. kvartal
Miami Urner Barry 3-4 lb fillet D-trim: USD 12,75/kg (USD 13,68/kg), dvs. -7% fra 1. kvartal

Det ser ut til at norsk slaktevolum for 2. kvartal ble lavere enn prognosen til f.eks. Kontali Analyse.

Endret 06.07.2017 19:27 av delta
chateau
11.07.2017 14:44
#8029

ErEr Giskeødegård begynt å fossro?
chateau
12.07.2017 17:57
#8031

Fra og med i dag kan Atlantic Sapphire handles på OTC-listen til Verdipapirforetakenes Forbund.

Det markerer en milepæl da det er første gang landbaserte lakseaksjer kan bli omsatt, ifølge en tweet fra gründer og styreleder Johan E Andreassen.

Atlantic Sapphire vil drive landbasert oppdrett av laks i Miami, og har de siste seks årene drevet landbasert lakseoppdrett i Danmark.

Fredag for 1,5 uke siden fullførte selskapet en emisjon på 70 millioner dollar tilrettelagt av DNB Markets og Arctic Securities.

Ifølge prospektet utarbeidet i forbindelse med emisjonen, skrev selskapet: «Landbasert oppdrett er fremtiden for laks, og er en disruptiv og miljøvennligere måte å oppdrette laks på»

Atlantic Sapphire registrert på OTC-listen
uturen
13.07.2017 20:19
#8532

Nok en gang ble et stort fall i spotprisene raskt snudd til ny oppgang. Nå er Pareto sin forventning om spotpris rundt 65kroner for neste uke en forventning, men ettersom den kom på Pareto sin hjemmeside kl 18.35 bør den være velfundert.

Denne spotprisforventningen bekreftes forøvrig av julikontrakten på Fishpool som er 65,25

Litt tidlig å avlyse det store prisfallet som er innbakt i dagens aksjekurser for sjømatselskapene, men når både slaktevolum og spotpris stiger samtidig er iallefall min kursoptimisme stigende.

"Salmon price NOK 66/EUR 7 next week (+5)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 66/kg, which is NOK 5/kg higher than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 1/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-1%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 0.1/kg lower (-1%). The export volume was 20,909 tonnes last week, 23% higher than the corresponding week last year. The higher volume is the main reason for the lower prices this week and last week, compared to the same weeks last year. YTD export volumes are down 2% and the spot price in EUR is up 10%.

Other salmon and white fish prices

Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 65/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)
2018: NOK 62/kg (+0.1/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 12/kg fillets (-0.2/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.1/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)
NE: USD 7.7/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 17.7/kg week 26, +5% from same week last year. Average price YTD is USD 19.8/kg, +19% from same period last year.

Trout price NOK 75.7/kg week 26, -1.7/kg from the week before and +12/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30/kg week 25, +1.9/kg from the week before and +2.1/kg from the corresponding week last year.

Achieved salmon prices and price estimates for week 26, 27 and 28
Week 27: Price reported at NOK 63.54/kg (PAS est. NOK 66/kg)
Week 28: We expect NOK 61/kg (prev. est. NOK 60/kg)
Week 29: We expect NOK 66/kg

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2018e

2017e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.6) o Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2) o Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2) o Q3 17e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9) o Q4 17e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2)
2018e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4)"
OldNick
17.07.2017 11:04
#19324

Interessant artikkel om overfiske av villfiks i verdenshavene

Legger inn den mest interessante delen av artikkelen, da Economist er betalingstjenste.

Improving the ocean

Getting serious about overfishing

The oceans face dire threats. Better regulated fisheries would help


Economist
May 27, 2017

Even the names at Sutton Harbour give it away. While the pleasure boats, including Windfall and Felicity, gleam in the sunshine, the light warms rust on the decks of craft such as Pisces. The fishing industry is struggling to stay afloat in Plymouth, a port in Devon. Locals grumble about regulation, fuel costs and the dearth of crew. Revenues are stagnant and the facilities ageing. But if times are tough for the fishers, they may be tougher for the fish.

The world currently consumes more fish per person than ever before-about 20 kilos a year. But almost all the recent gains in production have been down to farmed fish. Aquaculture has grown remarkably in the past decades, especially in China; in 2014 it accounted for half of all the fish people ate. But that does not mean that the pressure on the open seas has eased.

In 2013, the most recent year for which full data are available, 32% of the world's fish stocks were being exploited beyond their sustainable limit, up from 10% in the 1970s, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation. The amount of fish caught at sea has been pretty much flat for the past three decades, but the share of the world's fish stocks that are being plundered unsustainably has continued to increase.



Overfishing is not the only problem. Pollution, notably fertiliser run-off, damages a lot of marine ecosystems. There are estimated to be 5trn bits of plastic in the ocean, with over 8m tonnes of the stuff added every year. By the middle of the century the sea could contain more plastic than fish by weight, according to research done for the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

...

Losing Nemo

Overfishing is bad for fish; it is also, in the long run, bad for those seeking to catch them. The goal of sound management is to have a stock that is harvested at the same rate that it replenishes itself-which might typically be a stock about half the size of what would be there if there were no fishing at all. If fishers take more than this "maximum sustainable yield"-as they do in many fisheries today-then in the long run they will get less out of the resource than they could, quite possibly imperilling its future. If stocks were allowed to rise back up far enough for the world's fisheries to reach their maximum sustainable yield, the industry would increase production by 16.5m tonnes-about a fifth of the current total-and bring in an extra $32bn a year.

Good management could in principle get the stocks back up through the use of quotas, property rights and other constraints on untrammelled exploitation. Quotas and similar controls have worked well in some cases. In American waters 16% of stocks were overfished in 2015, down from 25% in 2000. But they have drawbacks. Because they want to land the largest fish they can find, fishers throw back undersized specimens, which often die as a result. And because fish mix, species caught by accident are thrown back if a fisher has no quota for them.

Quotas are also often badly set. Regulators and politicians pander too much to powerful fishing interests, according to Rainer Froese of the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany. Lobbies, which often benefit from the importance of fishing to specific places, push for short-term profit over long-term sustainability. "They harvest the apples by cutting the tree branches," says Mr Froese.

Endret 17.07.2017 11:05 av OldNick
OldNick
17.07.2017 11:06
#19325

The problem is exacerbated by a lack of evidence, which makes overly permissive quota-setting easier. More investment in research and monitoring could help. But in developing countries, where the need is often dire, there are frequently no resources to meet that need, and in many rich countries fishing is not a big enough industry to make such research a national priority. "We are not good value for the taxpayer, but how can you have an island nation without a fishing fleet?" asks Pete Bromley, a former fisherman who is now master of Sutton Harbour.

Aquaculture boosters might answer that fleets are simply no longer needed. But farmed fish, particularly salmon and their ilk, are fed on smaller fish that themselves are caught at sea. Insects or algae might provide alternative fodder, but the companies involved are slow to embrace such novelties, according to Ari Jadwin of AquaSelect, which provides advice to Chinese fish farms. One issue, he says, is that Chinese consumers are not moved by sustainability arguments. But he thinks that concerns over food safety will lead to better practices in the long run.

...

Fixed assets



Faced with chronic problems and hard-to-quantify future crises, the sea's resources need to be looked after better by all those-countries, consumers, companies and fishers-with a stake in their survival.

Much of that needs to be done in national jurisdictions. Though overfishing means that many fleets now head farther from home than before, about 90% of the catch is from the "exclusive economic zones" (EEZs) that countries are entitled to claim out to as far as 200 nautical miles (370km) from their shores. What counts as a shore, and a claim, though, can be disputed: China's assertion of fishing rights in the South China Sea, which contains a tenth of the global fish catch, sets its neighbours on edge (though it is hardly the only thing that does). Russia, America and other Arctic states argue over new access to fish stocks in the melting north.

Though what goes on in EEZs is largely a sovereign matter, there are some levers available to outsiders. The World Trade Organisation (WTO) hopes to introduce new rules on fishing subsidies at its next ministerial jamboree in December. These come to $30bn a year, with seven in every ten dollars handed out by comfortably-off countries. The WTO first started discussions on fishing subsidies back in 2001; Pascal Lamy, formerly its director-general, says a great deal of effort has gone into working out which subsidies are contributing to harmful fishing practices. The reckoning now is about 60% of them do so.

China, which gets far more fish from its EEZ than any other country does from theirs (as well as fishing, by agreement, the EEZs of other countries), seems open to action on subsidies if some unrelated anti-dumping measures are loosened. But how to bring poor countries on board remains a thorny issue. Although coastal African states want change, many inland ones fret over the higher cost of fish. "The whole point is to make fish more expensive," explains Mr Lamy, "so as to internalise the cost of environmental depletion." Sensible stewardship, but not necessarily an easy sell in countries where fish from elsewhere are a cheap source of protein for the poor.

Establishing more protected areas both within EEZs and on the high seas beyond would be another way to help, particularly if they were to contain "no-take" zones where fishing is completely barred. Such zones provide breathing spaces, or breeding spaces, in which stocks can recover. Crow White from California Polytechnic State University and Christopher Costello from the University of California, Santa Barbara have calculated that if such an approach was taken to its extreme and the high seas were closed to fishing, then yields elsewhere could rise by 30%, with fisheries' profits doubling because fish closer to shore

Endret 17.07.2017 11:06 av OldNick
OldNick
17.07.2017 11:07
#19326

become cheaper to catch.

The countries that dominate fishing in international waters (see chart 2) would never stomach such a ban; they prefer the often inadequate regulation offered by regional fisheries-management organisations. But even in these regimes, temporary and rolling closures have been tested. In the Antarctic permanent ones have proved successful.



Spotting boats that misbehave on the high seas (or indeed in EEZs) is getting easier. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) requires ships over 300 tonnes to have an Automatic Identification System (AIS), a radio transmitter which tells anyone in the vicinity the boat's position, speed and identity so as to avoid collisions. "In the vicinity", though, now includes "up above"; various satellites can use AIS transmissions to track ships. Spire, an American startup, is building up a constellation of tiny spacecraft with which it hopes to log 10m AIS transmissions every day by the end of this year.

Global Fishing Watch, an online platform created by Google, Oceana, a marine charity, and Sky Truth, which uses satellite data to further environmental causes, is a keen user of AIS transmissions. They do not just let it locate fishing vessels; they let it take a good guess as to what they are doing (boats long-lining for tuna, for example, zigzag distinctively). The platform currently follows 60,000 vessels responsible for 50-60% of the world's catch, according to Brian Sullivan from Google. Indonesia is planning to use the platform to make public data that it gathers through "vessel monitoring systems"-information which can reveal more about what is actually happening on-board than AIS location data do, and as a result is often jealously guarded. The more other countries follow suit, the better the picture will be.

The Port State Measures Agreement, which came into force in 2016, means that if such monitoring leads a country to suspect that a foreign vessel is doing something dodgy, it does not have to go out and inspect it in order to take action. The agreement's clever construction means that poor countries without much by way of navy or coastguard can deny a suspicious foreign vessel entry to their ports and pass its details on to other countries that might have the wherewithal to check it out.

Endret 17.07.2017 11:07 av OldNick
OldNick
20.07.2017 17:27
#19348

Ikke Giskeødegaard denne gangen som kom med en generell salgsanbefaling på laksesektoren.


Spår prisknekk i laks

Sjefanalytiker øyner en trigger


Odd S. Parr, Hegnar.no
20.07.2017

Sjefanalytiker Karl-Johan Molnes i Norne Securities synes torsdag det er på sin plass å gjenta sine «trading sell»-anbefalinger på seks av børsens lakseaksjer.

Molnes peker først og fremst på at norsk eksport fortsatt er 10-15 prosent under normalnivå på denne tiden av året, og spår prisfall de neste ukene.

Øyner lavt 50-tall

- Nå er prisene 10 kroner kiloen lavere enn i Norge både for Skottland og Chile, og nå begynner det å dukke opp mange biler med småfisk rundt tre kilo for salg, noe som tyder på at det har oppstått en biologisk situasjon denne uken hvor en oppdretter har valgt å slakte ned, skriver han i en oppdatering Hegnar.no har fått tilgang til.

Molnes tror dette kan trigge et sesongmessig fall i lakseprisene.

- Lakseprisen vil sannsynligvis falle fra det høye 60-tallet til det lave 50-tallet i løpet av august. Historisk har det alltid vist seg at aksjekursene i lakseoppdrett svinger med spotprisen på laksen, fortsetter han.

Vente på oppkjøp?

Sjefanalytikeren mener vi fortsatt i et laksemarked hvor det er vanskelig å vite hvilken side av toppen vi er på.

- Og det vil forekomme oppkjøp. I aksjene der du tror oppkjøp kan komme, kan det være verdt å vente med å selge til slutt. I selskaper man vet ikke kan bli kjøpt opp - som Bakkafrost - er det mindre grunn til å være forsiktige med å selge, avslutter Molnes.

Nornes nedsider

Norne Securities har et kursmål på 130 kroner i Marine Harvest, som utgjør en nedside på rundt 10 prosent fra dagens nivåer.

40 kroner i Lerøy Seafood indikerer en nedside på rundt 13 prosent, mens 180 kroner i Salmar indikerer en nedgang på rundt 12 prosent.

Den største nedsiden ser Molnes i Bakkafrost. Kursmålet på 250 kroner peker mot en nedgang på rundt 19 prosent.

Med kursmål på 55 og 135 kroner i Grieg Seafood og Norway Royal Salmon øyner Norne nedsider på rundt hhv. 16 og to prosent (sistnevnte har fått seg et oppsving på Oslo Børs torsdag ettermiddag, etter at styreleder har kjøpt aksjer).
uturen
21.07.2017 09:29
#8533

Lett å spå den årlige prisknekken for laks, men når kommer den?

Spotprisene holder forbausende godt mot forventningene om økt volum og priser ned om lavt 50

Kan komme.men inntil videre har oppdretterne fortsatt gode tider og perioden med sesongmessig lave priser kan også i år bli kortere enn pessimistene venter.

Her er Pareto sin ukesoppdatering:


"Salmon price NOK 63/EUR 6.7 next week (-2)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 63/kg, which is NOK 2/kg lower than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 3/kg higher than corresponding week last year (+4%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 0.3/kg higher (+5%). The export volume was 19,371 tonnes last week, 5% higher than the corresponding week last year. YTD export volumes are down 2% and the spot price in EUR is up 9%.

Other salmon and white fish prices Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 65.2/kg (+0.2/kg from last week)
2018: NOK 61.9/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)


US prices:
Miami: USD 11.4/kg fillets (-0.5/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 6.9/kg (-0.2/kg from last week)
NE: USD 7.7/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 20.3/kg week 28, +6% from same week last year. Average price YTD is USD 19.8/kg, +18% from same period last year.

Trout price NOK 75.2/kg week 28, -0.4/kg from the week before and +11/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.3/kg week 28, +0.4/kg from the week before and +2.4/kg from the corresponding week last year.

Achieved salmon prices and price estimates for week 28, 29 and 30
Week 28: Price reported at NOK 60.88/kg (PAS est. NOK 61/kg)
Week 29: We expect NOK 65/kg (prev. est. NOK 66/kg)
Week 30: We expect NOK 63/kg

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.6)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2)
Q3 17e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9)
Q4 17e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2)

2018e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4)
2019e :NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5)"

OldNick
24.07.2017 09:39
#19353

Nordisk oppkjøpsfond vil bli verdens største på laks

Summa Equity kjøper laksefabrikk og vil bli verdensledende på videreforedling av laks


Are Strandli, Hegnar.no
24.07.2017

Det nordiske oppkjøpsfondet Summa Equity som ble startet av blant annet Reynir Indahl i fjor, gjør nå sitt inntog i laksenæringen.

Fondet kjøper 75 prosent av det polske selskapet Milarex som nylig har åpnet en stor fabrikk for videreforedling av laks nordvest i Polen, skriver Dagens Næringsliv.

- Fabrikken har i dag en produksjon på 5000 tonn ferdigvare og vi venter å doble dette det kommende året. På sikt er målet å bli den største på videreforedling av laks i verden, sier Reynir Indahl til avisen.

Fabrikken som pr i dag har produksjonslinjer som gir en total produksjonskapasitet på 17.000 tonn per år, er bygget for å kunne produsere så mye som 35.000 tonn ferdigvare.

Indahl sier til DN at fabrikken derfor enkelt kan skaleres opp til å bli det største i verden.

Jon Hindar, tidligere sjef i lakeselskapet Cermaq, og nå påtroppende styreleder i Milarex, sier til DN at målet er å få utnyttet fabrikkens potensielle i løpet av 5 til 6 år.

- Selskapet vil i år omsette for rundt én milliard kroner. Vi kommer til å gradvis oppskalere produksjonen, og målet er å nå maks kapasitet innen fem til seks år. Da vil omsetningen være på over fem milliarder kroner, sier han til avisen.

Morpol-gründer Jerzy Malek er mannen bak Milarex, og etter salget til Summa Equity vil han sitte på de resterende 25 prosentene av selskapet.
chateau
28.07.2017 11:48
#8034

2% økning i Norge vil ikke sette lakseprisene under press.
Presset må i så tilfelle komme fra Chile / Canada.


Innkommet 28.07.2017 09:33
OSLO, July 28 (Reuters) - The volume of salmon in cages at
Norwegian fish farms, as measured by weight, was up by seven
percent year-on-year in June, industry lobby Seafood Norway said
in a statement.
Also known under the term biomass, the quantity was
estimated at 605,000 tonnes of salmon, it added.
Seafood Norway represents about 500 Norwegian seafood
companies.
Big Norwegian salmon producers, including Marine Harvest
, Leroey , Grieg and Norway Royal
Salmon expect Norwegian production volumes to rise by
around 2 percent in 2017 after falling 5 percent in 2016.
Norway is the world's top salmon producer, followed by
Chile.
In May, salmon biomass was up 5 percent year-on-year.


(Reporting by Ole Petter Skonnord, editing by Alister Doyle)

Endret 28.07.2017 11:51 av chateau
enzo
28.07.2017 12:05
#2301

Studerer en akvafaktas junioversikt, 4% økningt i antall fisk og 7% økning i biomasse, bør dette kunne tas av økning i etterspørsel, markedet er i positiv utvikling. Presset på prisene må derfor i første rekke komme fra CHILE.
Antar at prisene vil kopiere kurven for 2016.
2017 vil bli et kjempeår for oppdrettere som unngår sykdom.
chateau
01.08.2017 11:37
#8035

Marine Harvest slakter nesten like mye fisk årlig som de tre neste oppdretterne på tabellen til sammen

Dette er verdens 20 største lakseoppdrettere
uturen
03.08.2017 23:43
#8534

Ettersom ukesoppdateringen fra Pareto kom utpå kvelden bør spotprisanslaget for neste uke være rimelig sikkert.

Gjennomsnittsprisen så langt i Q3 ligger godt over 55 kroner som er Pareto sitt estimat for Q3-17.

"Salmon price NOK 57/EUR 6.1 next week (unch.)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 57/kg, which is the same as our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 2/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-4%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 0.2/kg higher (-4%). The export volume was 20,259 tonnes last week, 1% lower than the corresponding week last year. YTD export volumes are down 2% and the spot price in EUR is up 5%.

Other salmon and white fish prices
Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 64.8/kg (-0.2/kg from last week)
2018: NOK 62.3/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 10.8/kg fillets (-0.5/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 6.9/kg (unch. from last week)
NE: USD 7.8/kg (+0.1/kg last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 21/kg week 29, +3% from same week last year. Average price YTD is USD 19.9/kg, +18% from same period last year.

Trout price NOK 71.6/kg week 30, -3/kg from the week before and +9/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 28.8/kg week 28, -0.6/kg from the week before and +1/kg from the corresponding week last year.

Achieved salmon prices and price estimates for week 30, 31 and 32
Week 30: Price reported at NOK 59.68/kg (PAS est. NOK 60/kg)
Week 31: We expect NOK 57/kg
Week 32: We expect NOK 57/kg

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.6)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2)
Q3 17e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9)
Q4 17e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2)
2018e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4)
2019e :NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5) "
chateau
09.08.2017 10:28
#8036

ikke alle som er like negative til næringen som Nordea og deres "supermann" Giskeødegård.

LAKS:CARNEGIE OPPGRADERER MHG, LSG, AUSS TIL KJØP

Oslo (TDN Finans): Carnegie oppgraderer sitt syn på laksesektoren og oppgraderer anbefalingen på både Marine Harvest, Lerøy Seafood og Austevoll Seafood fra hold til kjøp, ifølge en oppdatering fra meglerhuset onsdag.
Carnegie mener at tilbudsveksten av oppdrettslaks vil forbli moderat.
Meglerhuset trekker også frem at et fall i lakseprisen på kortsikt er ventet og at dette prisfallet er priset inn i aksjekursene.
Sektoren handles rundt historiske nivåer, ifølge Carnegie, som viser til at pris/inntjening-multipler er akkurat på det historiske gjennomsnittet.
Carnegies toppvalg i sektoren er Bakkafrost med kursmål på 385 kroner, Grieg Seafood med kursmål på 88 kroner og Norway Royal Salmon med kursmål på 190 kroner.
KO, finans@tdn.no
chateau
10.08.2017 11:40
#8037

Genmanipulert laks.....er det fremtiden?


A genetically-modified AquAdvantage salmon and a non-GM farmed salmon at the same age.

Endret 10.08.2017 11:42 av chateau
uturen
10.08.2017 12:47
#8535

Spotprisen faller ventelig litt, slik augustkontrakten på Fishpool varslet i går.

Ikke godt å forstå om det er det verntede fallet i spotprisen eller retorikken mellom DT og KUJ som sender sjømataksjene ned ca 1 % i dag.


"Salmon price NOK 55/EUR 5.9 next week (-2)



We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 55/kg, which is NOK 2/kg below our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 4/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-6%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 0.45/kg higher (-7%). The export volume was 21,757 tonnes last week, 4% higher than the corresponding week last year. YTD export volumes are down 2% and the spot price in EUR is up 8%.

Other salmon and white fish prices

Fishpool forward prices:

2017: NOK 64.6/kg (-0.2/kg from last week)

2018: NOK 62.6/kg (+0.3/kg from last week)


US prices:

Miami: USD 10.3/kg fillets (-0.1/kg from last week)

Seattle: USD 6.9/kg (unch. from last week)

NE: USD 7.8/kg (unch. fom last week)


French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 21.1/kg week 30, +5% from same week last year. Average price YTD is USD 19.9/kg, +17% from same period last year.

Trout price NOK 68.5/kg week 31, -3/kg from the week before and +10.6/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.4/kg week 31, +1.6/kg from the week before and +1.8/kg from the corresponding week last year.

Achieved salmon prices and price estimates for week 31, 32 and 33

Week 31: Price reported at NOK 57.61/kg (PAS est. NOK 57/kg)

Week 32: We expect NOK 57/kg (Prev. est. NOK 57/kg)

Week 33: We expect NOK 55/kg

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e

2017e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.6/kg)

Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)

Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)

Q3 17e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)

Avg. QTD have been NOK 60/kg

Our estimate implies NOK 50/kg remaining weeks Q4 17e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)

2018e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)

2019e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"
chateau
14.08.2017 11:38
#8038

iFarm kan revolusjonere oppdrettsnæringen og bli lakselusens nemesis.

lakselusens nemesis
highlander
19.08.2017 07:01
#7366

Forskere har påvist at lakselusen kan bli motstandsdyktig mot dagens medikamentfrie varmtvanns- og fersktvannsbehandling.

Administrerende direktør Stein Lier-Hansen i Norsk Industri kaller funnet ekstremt alvorlig for sektorens vekstmuligheter og påpeker at lakselusen allerede nå påfører næringen 15 milliarder kroner i produksjonstap hvert år. (Kilde: DN/Xi)
highlander
22.08.2017 09:40
#7380

ABG Sundal Collier har snudd og er nå mer positiv til et par av lakseaksjene:

Meglerhuset oppgraderer både Marine Harvest og Grieg Seafood til kjøp fra henholdsvis hold og selg.

Kursmålene oppgis til henholdsvis kr. 185 (tidl. 160) og kr. 90 (tidl. 70).
chateau
23.08.2017 10:40
#8041

Sakset fra DNB morgenrapport

Rundt tyve selskap legger frem sine Q2-rapporter i det norske markedet i morgen
tidlig. Vi kan forvente at oppdateringen fra Marine Harvest Group vil være blant dem
som tiltrekker seg mest oppmerksomhet. På solid volum er aksjen opp mer enn 10%
den siste måneden og den stengte i går på NOK 158.30 pr aksje. Allerede 14. juli
sendte selskapet ut foreløpige tall for Q2 og vi venter ingen betydelige endringer i
forhold til den oppdateringen. Vi har en kjøpsanbefaling og med utgangspunkt i
estimatene for 2017 får vi ved et kursmål på NOK 165 pr aksje en P/E på 11.9x og
en direkteavkastning på 7.4%. Våre volumestimater ligger imidlertid under selskapets
guiding og det innebærer at vi ser en viss risiko for at de nedjusterer denne i
forbindelse med Q2- eller Q3-rapporteringen. På helt kort sikt vil dette da kunne
påvirke konsensus negativt. Etter gårsdagens rapporter fra Bakkafrost og Norway
Royal Salmon justerer vi kursmålet i førstnevnte fra NOK 350 til NOK 360 pr
aksje, mens kursmålet i sistnevnte justeres fra NOK 180 til NOK 185 pr aksje. Vi
beholder samtidig kjøpsanbefalingen i Norway Royal Salmon, men tar
anbefalingen ned fra Kjøp til Hold for Bakkafrost.
uturen
24.08.2017 13:56
#8536

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Salmon price NOK 52/EUR 5.6 next week (-1)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 52/kg,
which is NOK 1/kg lower than our estimate for this week. The spot
price next week will be NOK 4/kg lower than corresponding week last
year (-8%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 0.5/kg lower (-8%). Export
volumes were 22,568 tonnes last week, in line with the corresponding
week last year. YTD export volumes are down 1.6% and export price
in EUR is up 12%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 51.7/kg (PAS est: NOK 51/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 53/kg (prev est: NOK 52/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 52/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 64.1/kg (+0.1/kg from last week)
2018: NOK 62.4/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 58/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
o Miami: USD 10.3/kg fillets (unch. from last week)
o Seattle: USD 6.9/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 20.9/kg in week 32, +3% from
the week before and +12% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 60.1/kg last week, -6.9/kg from the week before and
+1.1/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 27.9/kg last week, -1.6/kg from the week before and -
0.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.6/kg)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q3 17e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
Avg. QTD have been NOK 57.6/kg
Our estimate implies NOK 50/kg remaining weeks
Q4 17e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
2018e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2019e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"
highlander
24.08.2017 16:47
#7384

Etter tallslippene har Pareto økt kursmålet i Bakkafrost fra 360 til 365 kr og i Norway Royal Salmon fra 180 til 185 kr.

Meglerhuset gjentar kjøp av begge aksjene.

Sparebank 1 Markets opprettholder nøytral-anbefaling på Bakkafrost, men har oppjustert kursmålet fra 330 til 340 kr.

Nordea Markets nedgraderer Bakkafrost til salg, kursmål 310 kr, og gjentar salg på Norway Royal Salmon med kursmål 130 kr.

DNB Markets justeringer på bakgrunn av kvartalstallene fremgår av chateau 23.08.2017 10:40 #8041.
Varsling på tema     Varsling på stikkord




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