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DNO - betaling og reprising (25) XXV
Beins
23:21 28.07.2017
#10908

RAKP virker svært lite likvid.

Har RAKP større utslag på oljeprisen enn DNO - eller hur?
eshuse
08:59 09.08.2017
#2545

DNO Reports Payment for Tawke Deliveries




Oslo, 9 August 2017 - DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, today
reported receipt of USD 39.59 million from the Kurdistan Regional Government as
payment towards May 2017 crude oil deliveries to the export market from the
Tawke license. The funds, to be shared pro-rata by DNO and partner Genel Energy
plc, include USD 33.21 million towards monthly deliveries and USD 6.39 million
towards recovery of outstanding receivables.
Fanatic
12:21 09.08.2017
#28058

Estimatet mitt på ca 39 fra 28. juli var ikke aå langt unna. :-)
javelda
12:28 09.08.2017
#6016

Allikevel er dno i minus, til tross for ny betaling. Hadde trodd det motsatte, med også oljeprisen i pluss.

Endret 09.08.2017 12:32 av javelda
enzo
12:45 09.08.2017
#2302

Betaling har liten virkning på kursen, den er nå så regelmessig at den er "inne", skulle den uteblitt blir det noe annet.
javelda
16:18 09.08.2017
#6017

enzo
Du har sikkert rett i det. Ser DNO er litt opp og det er da sannsynligvis oljeprisen sin fortjeneste.
javelda
05:25 11.08.2017
#6018

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq's parliament agreed a 17 percent share of the national budget for the autonomous Kurdistan region on Wednesday, despite efforts by former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite Dawa party to cut the annual allocation.

"The Iraqi parliament passed and fixed the Kurdistan region's 17 percent budget share," Sarhan Ahmed, a Kurdish MP in the Iraqi parliament, told Rudaw.

He explained that the proposal to keep the allocation at 17 percent - as specified in the Iraqi constitution - was accepted despite opposition by the Dawa bloc, which on Monday had proposed a reduction to 13 percent.

Ahmed said Maliki's bloc had asked for yet another hearing on the proposal, but "the parliament speaker rejected their call and considered it illegal."

The proposal to cut Kurdistan's share of the budget was condemned by Kurdish MPs in the Iraqi parliament at an emergency session on Tuesday.

Iraq's Minister of Finance Hoshyar Zebari has warned that "reducing Kurdistan's share of the budget would dismantle Iraq's political process."
teo
13:48 14.08.2017
#11496

Oslo (TDN Finans): Oljeselskapet DNO skal ha levert utviklingsplan for oljefeltet Changuleh i Iran sammen med den lokale partneren Dana Energy. Det melder det iranske nyhetsbyrået Mehr, ifølge bransjeavisen Upstream. Førstefaseutviklingen planlegges til 15.000 fat pr dag, men dette planlegges utvidet til 50.000 fat pr dag i den andre utviklingsfasen. Mehr opplyser ingen detaljer om tidsplanen for utviklingen. Changuleh estimeres å inneholde over to milliarder fat olje «in place».
teo
20:01 14.08.2017
#11497

Norway's DNO, Russia's Gazprom Neft PJSC, and Thailand's state-owned PTTEP have submitted the result of their technical studies on Changuleh Oilfield west of Iran to the National Iranian Oil Company. According to the NIOC news portal, each company conducted surveys on the field for about six months.

DNO handed in its findings last week while Gazprom and PTTEP reportedly presented their master plan on Monday.

According to Ali Abbas Lorki, director of the Changuleh oilfield, the surveys will be examined by separate technical teams at the NIOC and "once preliminary assessments are over, NIOC's Reservoir Management Committee will make a decision on developing the field."

"Plans are in place to develop the field in two phases," Lorki said, noting that in the first phase, which is scheduled to last 36 months, production will reach 15,000 barrels per day by drilling four and repairing two wells. Laying a 100-kilometer pipeline and installing a gas-oil separation unit are also part of the first development phase.

The second phase calls for drilling 13 wells along with extending the pipelines, with the field's output to increase to 50,000 barrels a day.
The oilfield is located near the Iraqi border in the western Ilam Province. It is estimated to hold over 3 billion barrels of oil in place. Officials forecast that production could reach as high as 75,000 barrels per day.

The field was discovered nearly two decades ago but development has been next to nothing.Changuleh was discovered in 1999 as a result of explorations conducted by a consortium comprising Russia's Lukoil and Norway's Statoil. The field's development is estimated to require an investment worth $2.2 billion.
Officials in Tehran have already speculated that Changuleh could be linked to another major nearby field named Azar which is believed to be shared with Iraq's Badra field.

According to Gholamreza Manouchehri, the deputy for development and engineering at the NIOC, Iran is also studying a proposal by DNO to develop Hengam oil and gas field in the Persian Gulf, the only shared field between Iran and Oman.
Manouchehri noted that DNO is interested in developing Hengam based on a practice known as "unitization"-the joint development of a hydrocarbon reservoir extending across two countries-based on which the two sides split production and profit.

Iran is pushing for major deals with multinationals to raise crude production. It is now pumping close to 4 million barrels a day, a level last seen before the tightening of sanctions in 2011.
javelda
09:14 15.08.2017
#6019

Oslo (TDN Finans): Canaccord Genuity nedgraderer sin anbefaling på DNO-aksjen til hold fra kjøp, og oppjusterer kursmålet til 10 kroner fra tidligere 9, ifølge Bloomberg News tirsdag.
olejoerg
10:08 15.08.2017
#5097

Jeg tror DNO gjør helt rett i å satse tungt i Iran i disse dager. Usikkerheten rundt Trumps Iran-politikk holder oil-majors unna Iran og da er konkurransen mye mindre.

Dette kan bli meget lukerativt på sikt.
enzo
10:19 15.08.2017
#2303

Risiko med Iran,
Skulle vi få en tilspisset situasjon, vil vi DNO måtte trekke seg ut... med tap.
Trump er uberegnelig, men makta vil rå.
Fanatic
13:30 15.08.2017
#28059

No guts, no glory. DNO har alltid tatt politisk risiko, og de kommer neppe til å satse noe gigantbeløp med det første. Bare bra å få en fot inn i Iran før de fleste andre. Hengam-feltet er forøvrig samme felt som DNOs West Bukha i Oman, det ligger på grensen med halve feltet i Iran.
highlander
11:29 16.08.2017
#7361

Pareto Securities har kuttet i sine oljeprisestimater fremover, ifølge en analyseoppdatering.

Meglerhusets nye estimater for Brent:

2017: 53 USD/fat (tidl. 60 USD/fat)
2018: 60 USD/fat (tidl. 70 USD/fat)
2019: 65 USD/fat (tidl. 72,5 USD/fat)
2020: 70 USD/fat (tidl. 75 USD/fat)

Som en følge av nedjusterte oljeprisestimater kutter meglerhuset samtidig i kursmålene for følgende oljeaksjer, men opprettholder allikevel kjøpsanbefalingene:

Statoil: 185 kr (vs. tidl. 200)
DNO: 12 kr (vs. tidl. 14)
Aker BP: 160 kr (vs. tidl. 180)
teo
17:53 17.08.2017
#11498

Iraq output drop likely reflects methodology shift - 16 Aug 2017, 2.23 pm GMT

London, 16 August (Argus) - Iraqi field-level production data appears to show it has deepened crude output cuts, but methodology changes are the more likely explanation. And data from international oil firms show output from the semiautonomous Kurdistan region to be much higher than the federal government's estimate.

Baghdad is facing pressure to improve its compliance with the production deal struck between Opec and several non-Opec countries. Argus estimates Iraqi output has been 4.45mn b/d so far this year, making it just over 50pc compliant, compared with Opec's overall 101pc compliance rate. Iraq agreed to cut output by 210,000 b/d from an October 2016 baseline figure determined by secondary sources, including Argus, to 4.35mn b/d until March next year. Production data from the federal government in Baghdad put output at 4.54mn b/d this year.

Iraq's low compliance led to an appearance before a joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting earlier this month to discuss its future production plans. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid al-Falih made comments after a meeting with his Iraqi counterpart Jabbar al-Luaibi on 8 August that could be interpreted as a public hint that Iraq needs to improve its compliance.
Iraq's production published two days later in Opec's latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) showed output at 4.4mn b/d in July, down by 150,000 b/d from June. A regional breakdown for July, provided by the oil ministry, shows a decline of 374,000 b/d when compared with the previously-published breakdown for September 2016, before the Opec agreement. The biggest fall comes from state-owned North Oil, (NOC) followed by the Kurdistan region (see table).
An explanation for the large drop from NOC could be a methodology change. The ministry's September figure for NOC included production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome, in Kirkuk, even though these fields were taken over by the KRG in 2014 to prevent them falling to Islamist group Isis. Production from the two fields totalled 275,000 b/d in September last year.

Data from the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) placed the region's output at just over 560,000 b/d for the same month in 2016, similar to the federal government's estimate but including production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome.
This raised a question whether production at Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome was being counted twice by the federal government. It was a possible reason behind the large differences in Iraq's production according to the government and according to estimates from secondary sources used by the Opec secretariat.
While Iraq says NOC output has dropped to 161,000 b/d in July this year, a senior NOC official said this excludes production from Bai Hassan and Avanah Dome. Excluding those fields would place NOC production 10,000 b/d higher than in September last year. In addition, the federal government does not appear to have reallocated the production from the two fields to Kurdistan's total - the ministry says the northern region's production has fallen by 139,000 b/d since September last year.

The Kurdistan region is responsible for much of Iraq's apparent production fall. But Baghdad admits the KRG ministry of natural resources (MNR) refuses to provide it with production data. The MNR has not published its monthly output report since November, citing an audit process.

Information from foreign firms operating in northern Iraq show Kurdistan's production is fairly flat, if not higher than in September last year, at over 560,000 b/d. This excludes production from NOC fields.

Output at the Taq Taq field, operated by independent Genel Energy, has declined by almost 40,000 b/d between September 2016 and July this year. But production began at Abu Dhabi-listed Taqa's Atrush block in July, and this is scheduled to reach 30,000 b/d in 2017. Production has also increased at independent Gulf Keystone's Shaikan field, at Kar's three Kirkuk fields, and at No
teo
17:55 17.08.2017
#11499


Output at the Taq Taq field, operated by independent Genel Energy, has declined by almost 40,000 b/d between September 2016 and July this year. But production began at Abu Dhabi-listed Taqa's Atrush block in July, and this is scheduled to reach 30,000 b/d in 2017. Production has also increased at independent Gulf Keystone's Shaikan field, at Kar's three Kirkuk fields, and at Norwegian DNO's Tawke field.

The KRG exported just over 550,000 b/d of crude in July from Turkish ports, including shipments from Shaikhan through the Turkish port of Dortyol. This includes exports from NOC fields in Kirkuk.

Iraq has occasionally muddied the waters over its compliance levels. Officials have suggested it could increase production, keep exports the same and still remain committed to the Opec/non-Opec deal, although exports are not a factor in compliance. According to Argus tracking, Iraq's exports totalled 3.995mn b/d in October 2016, hit record levels of just above 4mn b/d in November-December, and averaged 3.83mn b/d in January-July.

The IMF forecasts Iraqi exports to fall by just 40,000 b/d in 2017 compared with a year earlier to 3.75mn b/d. It expects a rise to 3.89mn b/d in 2018.
Iraq is facing what the IMF calls "double shock" as a result of the conflict with Isis and persistent lower oil prices. This has contributed to a decline in international reserves to $45bn at the end of 2016 from $54bn at the end of 2015. The IMF expects this to fall to $41.4bn this year and to continue falling into 2022. These factors have also caused a rise in the government deficit to 14pc of GDP last year from 12pc in 2015. The IMF says with the current outlook for oil prices and production, the budget deficit could be eliminated by 2021 should fiscal reforms be implemented.

If IMF projections prove to be correct, Iraq's crude production will have to increase for the remainder of this year. Baghdad has sent mixed signals on this. Officials in the country's economic committee continue to stress a need for exemption from the Opec deal, despite minister al-Luaibi reaffirming Iraq's commitment. Iraq has said it should be exempt from the deal because of the strain caused by over a decade of war.

The IMF forecasts Iraq's crude production will be 4.57mn b/d in 2017, up from a previous estimate of 4.5mn b/d. Iraq's output would have to increase to 4.61mn b/d in August-December for the IMF figure to be reached.

But the IMF does not expect Iraq to increase oil production rapidly after this year. It says putting output and exports on a steeper upward trend would require significantly higher investment than is affordable. Iraq has a stated aim to reach production capacity of 5mn b/d by the end of this year. The IMF is much more cautious, seeing Iraq's production reaching 4.91mn b/d by 2022.
The IMF has said the financial pressure on Baghdad could be eased through structural reforms. The World Bank has said that investing $500mn to capture flared gas for electricity generation could yield about 1.4 trillion dinars ($1.2bn) in budget savings per year, and free more crude for exports. But the IMF said Iraq's ministry of finance has weak control over investment expenditure by other ministries.

It said the implementation of the budget-sharing agreement between Baghdad and the KRG would put benefit both. The agreement, reached in the third quarter of last year, allowed for the export of 150,000 b/d from NOC-controlled fields in Kirkuk through the Turkish port of Ceyhan, and to divide revenues equally. But Iraq's state-controlled marketer Somo has not exported any Kirkuk crude from Ceyhan since the end of June. KRG plans for a a referendum on independence next month are likely to further hinder the formation of good relations.
ingfa
10:59 22.08.2017
#5028

Rudaw

Iran
Zangeneh, a Kurd, confirmed as Iran oil minister
By FUAD HAQIQI 13 hours ago


Iran's oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh. Photo: Atta Kenare/Getty Images

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Bijan Namdar Zangeneh is the only Kurdish minister in the cabinet of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Experts say his reappointment is not because of his Kurdish ethnicity. Rather, it is because of his experience in the area of energy. Due to his role as minister in twelve cabinets of the Islamic Republic of Iran, he is known as the sheikh of ministers. Rouhani has described him as an international brand.

Zangeneh was born in June 1951 in the city of Kermanshah in east Kurdistan. He is from the Zangeneh tribe who live in the Kurdistan Region and Kurdistan areas of Iran. He went to university in Tehran in 1971 and completed his master's in reconstruction engineering in 1975. He was then employed as a member of the scientific body at the Khwaja Nasiruddin Toosi University of Technology.

He is a reformist in his political vision, the reason he did not hold a ministerial position during the terms of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Forts.

Klipp:
-Zangeneh was the architect behind the oil pipeline between the Kurdistan Region and Iran.

-"We want someone for the ministry who is credible to the outside world, someone known to foreigners. Bijan Namdar Zangeneh has this characteristic and is a brand," he added.

http://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/21082017
chateau
11:00 22.08.2017
#8040

Nærmer seg Q2

Oslo (TDN Finans): DNO ventes å legge frem et driftsresultat på 42 millioner dollar for andre kvartal 2017.
Det fremgår av gjennomsnittet av estimater innhentet av SME Direkt for TDN Finans blant elleve meglerhus.
Ebitda ventes til 58 millioner dollar i kvartalet, mens omsetningen å bli 82 millioner dollar.
DNO ventes å ha en produksjon på W/I-basis på 74.223 fat pr dag i 2017, økende til 82.112 fat pr dag i 2018, og deretter fallende til 80,501 fat pr dag i 2019. Produksjonsanslaget for 2017 er oppjustert med 2,8 prosent fra før forrige kvartalsrapport, mens 2018-prognosen er i snitt oppjustert med 4,9 prosent. 2019-anslaget er oppjustert med 1,8 prosent.
Ebitda ventes til 234 millioner dollar i 2017, økende til 296 millioner dollar i 2018. I 2019 ventes ebitda i snitt til 292 millioner dollar. Ebitda-estimatet for 2017 er nedjustert 0,2 prosent siden før forrige kvartalsrapport, mens for 2018 er ebitda-estimatet nedjustert med 7,2 prosent.
Av ni analytikere, anbefaler seks kjøp av DNO-aksjen, to har hold-anbefaling, mens én anbefaler salg. Gjennomsnittlig kursmål på aksjen er 10,3 kroner, varierende mellom 8 og 12 kroner.
Deltagere: ABG Sundal Collier, Barclays Capital, Danske Bank Markets, Deutsche Bank, DNB Markets, Fearnley Securities, Pareto Securities, RBC Capital Markets, Sparebank 1 Markets og UBS.
ØT, finans@tdn.no
ingfa
11:23 22.08.2017
#5029

Klipp fra HO:

-En som også er meget positiv til DNO-aksjen er forvalter Martin Mølsæter i First Fondene.
-Selskapet har cirka 2 kroner i fri kontantstrøm pr. aksje med dagens oljepris, mens aksjekursen står i 8,80 kroner. I tillegg er selskapet i ferd med å utvikle et nytt oljefunn i nærheten av sitt hovedfelt som jeg tror er undervurdert blant investorer, sa han i et intervju med Finansavisen fredag.
Mølseter fortalte videre til Finansavisen at det er betydelig økt interesse blant olje- og gasselskaper for denne regionen.
- En annen betydelig oppside som ikke er priset inn i aksjen er fordringenDNOhar mot de kurdiske myndighetene på over 8 kroner pr. aksje, sa han til avisen, og la til:
- Jeg tror at kurderne vil honorere kravet hovedsakelig i form av oppgjør i andeler i oljefelt, en løsning som trolig vil bli godt mottatt i aksjemarkedet.
Analytikerne i DNB Markets skriver følgende i en oppdatering om hva de forventer blir fokus på i rapporten.
«Her vil både resultatene, utsiktene for at kurdiske myndigheter i tillegg til å betale løpende forpliktelser også betaler ned på tidligere etablerte fordringer og utviklingsplanene for Peshkabir-feltet være i fokus», skriver DNB-analytikerne.
DNO-aksjen har hatt en beskjeden utvikling så langt i år.
Mens Oslo Børs er opp 6,71 prosent, er DNO opp 2,65 prosent siden årsskiftet.

http://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2017/08/Seks-av-ni-anbefaler-kjoep-foer-kvartalstall-fra-DNO
Beins
15:19 22.08.2017
#11019

DNO-aksjonærene får ikke betalt i aksjekursen for den inntjeningen som selskapet oppviser og den posisjonen de har spesielt i KRG men og IRan.
Men vi ser at kursen gradvis har bedret seg noe i forhold til oljeprisen, slik at potensialet ved en pris på 60 USD/f nå er blitt bedre.

Jeg tror at >58 USD som vi så i vinter vil gi en kurs på 12 kr.
Fanatic
16:32 22.08.2017
#28062

Har flytta litt av beholdningen min fra DNO til RAKP de siste tre ukene. Salgssnitt på DNO på 9,21, kjøpssnitt på RAKP på 7,42 på like mange aksjer. Syns det er en god deal, utelukkende grunnet den ene store selgeren av RAKP (ryktet sa en enkelt selger skulle ut med 2 mill for noen uker siden). Men har fremdeles 86% DNO og 14% RAKP som fordeling. Må ha mestedelen i DNO grunnet den lave likviditeten i RAKP når den ene selgeren er ferdig. Men verdimessig snakker vi om underliggende DNO-aksjer på 5-tallet eller noe sånt med RAKP på disse nivåene.

Endret 22.08.2017 16:32 av Fanatic
olejoerg
18:24 22.08.2017
#5101

Det er virkelig en god deal, men illikvid som pokker. Regner derimot med at dette vil endre seg når stigningen kommer.
Det er ikke bare DNO blant oljeselskaper som sliter med å oppnå fair value. Hele bransjen har kommet i en merkelig situasjon der markedet ser ut til å tro at olje fases ut i løpet av kort tid, fremtiden er ikke lystelig. Dette skyldes selvfølgelig hypen rundt alternativ energi som etter sigende skal ta over. I et kortsiktig marked gjelder det selvfølgelig å følge trenden så utviklingen er egentlig ikke så overraskende.
Men fakta vinner alltid over hype over tid, og det er noen faktorer markedet ikke tar inn over seg. De viktigste er disse:
1. Alternativ energi subsidieres, det betyr utgifter for staten samtidig som avgifter inn reduseres. Desto høyere alternativ andel jo høyere utgifter og lavere inntekter. På et tidspunkt blir det slutt på dette og hva skjer da?
2. Alternativ energi har p.t fortrinnsrett på strømgriden. Dette er et problem for tradisjonelle energiprodusenter da det betyr mindre omsetning og høyere kost pr produsert enhet. Dette skjer i et prisklima der subsidieringen av deres konkurrenter senker prisen på det de selger. Konsekvensen er åpenbar, lavere investeringer innen tradisjonell energi og lavere produksjon på sikt.
3. Ovennevnte betyr i praksis at infrastrukturen må håndtere store fluktuasjoner i energiproduksjon. Systemet er ikke forberedt på dette, ustabil energiforsyning vil bli konsekvensen og da blir det lett misnøye.

Når dette sammenfaller med lavere oljeproduksjon p.g.a prisfallet siste 3 år vil markedet forstå at man har solgt skinnet lenge før bjørnen er skutt. Da vil man atter bli minnet på hvor avhengig vår økonomi er av olje. Da vil man få en ny vår for oljeselskapene.
DNO er i den sammenheng blant de absolutt beste med kostnader de fleste andre oljeselskaper bare kan drømme om. Ser også positivt på tilnærmingen til Iran, det er DNO's forte å gå inn før andre kan og få lukerative avtaler. P.t tør mange andre ikke å satse p.g.a USA samtidig som Iran er veldig ivrige etter å vise fremgang. Kan bli en svært god deal for DNO, og det skader ikke å ha en deal med Iran ovenfor de som sitter i Bagdad heller..

Endret 22.08.2017 18:34 av olejoerg
yemaya 2
20:37 22.08.2017
#8649

Har man langsiktig tro på DNO er RAKP et meget godt alternativ. Ikke langt fra en dobling av verdiene.
Beins
20:53 22.08.2017
#11025

Hadde fornybart vært den største utfordreren for DNO og olja, hadde det vært oppløftende. Men oljeforbruket vokser i sterkt omfang år for år.

I 2004 var forbruket ca 79 mill fat/d, i 2015 ca 95 mill fat/d og nå ligger vi omtrent på 97,5 mill fat/d.

Det er tilbudet av olje som er for stort - slik blir det gjerne når ting betales godt. Alle vil produsere olje og tjene mye penger.

Nå får vi håpe på en bust-syklus der oljeprisen går kraftig opp og gjør både DNO og fornybar mer verdt.
OldNick
11:06 24.08.2017
#19432

DNO kom med Q2-rapport idag.
Jeg synes ikke rapporten var dårlig, men markedet var misfornøyd og sendte aksjen ned over 5% etter børsstart.

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20170824.GlobeNewswire.HUG2128970

DNO: DNO Reports Strong Half-Year 2017 Performance

Børsmelding
24.08.2017
______

Så ba DNO om børspause, hvor de publiserte denne meldingen:

http://www.netfonds.no/quotes/release.php?id=20170824.GlobeNewswire.HUG2128956

DNO: DNO Increases Tawke Stake; Announces Settlement of Kurdistan Receivables

Børsmelding
24.08.2017
______

Der står det at KRG vil gjøre opp gjelden sin til DNO (også Genel PLC), ved å overføre KRG's eierandel på 20% til DNO, i tillegg får de også en liten andel av KRG's lisens-inntekt i 5 år fremover.

http://e24.no/energi/olje/dno-oeker-i-tawke-feltet/24125080

DNO øker i Tawke-feltet

Oljeselskapet DNO øker andelen i sitt viktigste felt, Tawke i Kurdistan. Det er resultatet av en avtale hvor regjeringen gjør opp sin oljegjeld til DNO.

K.M.Hovland, E24.no
24.08.2017

Endret 24.08.2017 11:08 av OldNick
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