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Oljepris VI
olejoerg
08.08.2017 10:54
#5095

Fortsetter med ny tråd, den gamle er full.

Virker som noen over dammen også begynner å forstå at shale er avhengig av stadig økende investeringer bare for å opprettholde produksjonen. Se vedlagt link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Nothing-To-See-Here-Frackers-Ignore-Rising-Well-Decline-Rates.html

Dette passer dårlig overens med påstandene om stadig lavere kostnader, ser ut som det stikk motsatte for meg. Høyere kostnader og lavere inntekter..
renud
08.08.2017 11:26
#16363

Link til forrige tråd: Oljepris V
teo
08.08.2017 19:11
#11490

Nabour Drilling er USA sin største landrigg eier og operatør og burde ha bedre oversikt over framtidens riggmarked enn de fleste. Litt overraskende at de forventer en fortsatt markant økning i aktive landrigger nå i høst.

Nabors says about 15 percent of customers to reduce drilling rig count
HOUSTON (Reuters)


Drilling contractor Nabors Industries Ltd said about 15 percent of its U.S. customers outside of Alaska have indicated plans for a "light reduction" in rig counts in the second half of the year, according to a survey of its customers.
A third of those surveyed plan to add rigs during in the same period, the company said on a conference call after it posted on Thursday a larger-than-expected second-quarter loss.

Nabors shares fell 4 percent to $7.38 in afternoon trade.
The company reported a net quarterly loss from continuing operations of $117 million, or 41 cents a share, narrower than its year-earlier loss of $184 million, or 65 cents per share. Analysts had expected a 35 cent loss per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Nabors, the owner of the largest land drilling fleet in the United States, said its second-quarter revenues stood at $631 million, beating estimates of $592.2 million, according to I/B/E/S. The company said it expects to add about eight to 10 rigs in the lower 48 states in the third quarter and a similar figure in the fourth quarter.

Nabors estimated that U.S. companies will add 30 to 40 rigs in the second half of the year, based on indications from their customer survey.
The company said margins in its U.S. drilling business rose by about $600 per rig in the second quarter versus the first quarter, averaging $5,071 per rig per day.

It averaged around 100 working rigs in the latest quarter, up from an average of around 89 in the preceding three-month period.

Endret 08.08.2017 19:14 av teo
teo
08.08.2017 19:18
#11491

EIAgov still sees an oversupplied market in 2018



Forecast Highlights

Global liquid fuels
North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $48 per barrel (b) in July, $2/b higher than the June average and almost $4/b higher than in July 2016. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $51/b in 2017 and $52/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX contract values for December 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 3 suggest that a range of $37/b to $68/b encompasses the market expectation for December WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.30 per gallon (gal) in July, down 5 cents/gal from the average in June but 6 cents/gal higher than in July 2016. During the April-through-September summer driving season of 2017, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.37/gal, 14 cents/gal higher than last summer. Annual average U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to be $2.33/gal in both 2017 and 2018.

U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA forecasts crude oil production to average 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.

EIA forecasts that global petroleum and liquid fuels inventories will be largely unchanged in 2017 and then increase by an average of 0.2 million b/d in 2018.

Endret 08.08.2017 19:33 av teo
olejoerg
08.08.2017 20:14
#5096

teo

Det er kanskje ikke så overraskende, med de decline-rates det snakkes om kan man ikke hvile lenge. Jeg tror det har blitt slik for mange aktører at verdien av å kunne legge frem tall som viser økende produksjon er viktigere enn hvorvidt de tjener penger eller ei. De vet godt at de aldri vil klare å både drifte og betale tilbake gjeld på dagens prisnivå, derfor er prioritet nummer en å "pynte brura" for investorer slik at de fremdeles får tilgang til fersk kapital. Selvfølgelig i håp om at noe skal endre seg i prisbildet slik at det kan bli lønnsomt på sikt.

Den store stygge ulven som kan velte lasset ordentlig selv ved økende riggcount er økende decline-rates og økt gassandel. Indikasjoner på at begge disse faktorene er i spill kommer hyppigere og hyppigere nå i artikler fra flere og flere, og da spesielt i Permian. Den neste lakmustesten blir når de beste "hot-spots" er utviklet og man enten må finne like gode lokasjoner eller må gå til mindre produktive lokaliteter. Da strammes beltet ennå et hakk og utfordringen med å øke produksjonen blir større!
teo
08.08.2017 21:48
#11492

olejoerg,

Jeg ville trodd at oljeselskapene nå heller brukte tilgjengelig likviditet på å sette brønnene i produksjon i stedet for å øke ytterligere med flere rigger.
Långiverne krever prissikring og kontantstrøm som sikkerhet for lånene de gir derfor øker også forward salget fra Shale oil aktørene nå med WTI forward priser på over 50 USD/fat.

Men når långiverne har fått sitt blir det nok ingenting igjen til aksjonærene som av uforståelige grunner stadig tilfører egenkapital til industrien.
renud
08.08.2017 22:30
#16376

Så når et rent shale-play selskap skryter på seg og lokker inn nye investorer på påstått selvkost på $30 (Permian), er det fullstendig uten kostnader for kapitalen?

Det er jo en elegant investor fraude.
teo
09.08.2017 14:42
#11493

En av USA sin "ledende" Shaleoil aktør kutter investeringene

US shale firm Continental Resources (Harold G. Hamm's company) slightly cuts 2017 capex guidance but also ups oil output target



Endret 09.08.2017 14:43 av teo
Beins
09.08.2017 15:37
#10962

Stort lagertrekk iflg API.
'
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a major draw of 7.839 million barrels in United States crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations of a modest draw of 2.272 million barrels for the week ending August 4.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.529 million barrels for the week ending August 4, compared to analyst expectations that inventories for the fuel would fall by 1.5 million barrels.
Beins
09.08.2017 15:41
#10963

Fra Oilprice - høy decline-rate på Permian og andre shale felt. Mange brønner tett sammen fører til lavere gasstrykk og enda sterkere decline.

Other shale basins are seeing their decline rates rise as well. The Eagle Ford's legacy decline rate has jumped from 80,000 bpd a few months ago to 136,000 bpd in August.

Of course, legacy decline rates always increase when more shale wells come online. It's just a numbers game. More wells in production means that there are more wells that will enter into decline. In that sense, the higher rates overall decline in the U.S. shale patch are predictable and understandable.

But a new report from Horseman Capital Management Ltd., and cited by Bloomberg, says the decline rates are deeper than usual because drillers are placing too many wells in close proximity to one another. The wells then kill pressure in each other, lowering the amount of oil that can be recovered from them. "New well production is increasingly cannibalizing legacy production," Russell Clark, investment manager at Horseman Capital Management, wrote in a new report, cited by Bloomberg. "The decline rate looks to be accelerating."

Shale companies often trumpet their ability to tweak their drilling practices in order to cut costs, boasting about "drilling efficiencies" that have allowed them to lower their breakeven prices over the last three years. But one of those practices is putting so many wells close together, a practice that was thought to squeeze more oil out of the ground at lower cost. However, while the costs might indeed remain low, this new evidence suggests that cramming wells close too close together could be eating into their own potential production levels.

Related: Barclays: Oil Prices To Drop This Quarter

More evidence of trouble in the Permian came from the quarterly data from Pioneer Natural Resources, considered one of the top drillers in the Permian. Pioneer reported higher natural gas-to-oil ratios in its production than it expected. As oil fields age, Reuters reports, they tend to produce relatively more gas than oil. Pioneer's surprise at the higher gas coming from its wells raised some alarm from investors, who questioned company executives on a conference call about falling well pressure. Pioneer's management tried to assuage investors by saying that the higher gas-to-oil ratio has more to do with simply more gas coming out of the ground, rather than less oil. In other words, they say, there's nothing to see here.

Perhaps. But the legacy decline rates are accelerating at a dizzying pace. Across the top shale basins in the country, including the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Marcelles, Niobrara and Utica shales, the oil legacy decline rate has hit 350,000 bpd. Again, that means, from July to August, those basins lost 350,000 bpd of production. Of course, the rate of drilling is so aggressive that the industry still added 113,000 bpd of production on net, but it took a lot of new wells to more than offset the decline.

Shale output is still on an upward trend, but if the industry can't keep up on this accelerating treadmill, the legacy decline rates will catch up to them.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Nothing-To-See-Here-Frackers-Ignore-Rising-Well-Decline-Rates.html

Endret 09.08.2017 15:43 av Beins
teo
09.08.2017 17:53
#11494

U.S. shale breakeven price revealed around $50

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - U.S. shale producers need a WTI oil price around $50 per barrel to break even, according to an analysis of financial statements for the second quarter.
Fifteen of the largest shale oil and gas producers reported total net losses of $470 million for the three months between April and June when benchmark WTI prices averaged $48. Total losses were down from $3.7 billion in the first three months of the year and $7.4 billion in the same period in 2016, according to earnings statements published in the last week. Nine of the companies in the sample reported positive net income in the second quarter, down from 10 in the first quarter, but well up from none in the same period last year.

Shale companies have staunched the losses thanks to a combination of cost cutting, improved efficiency and the rise in oil prices. But there is considerable controversy about how high prices need to be for shale producers to cover all their costs and earn a return for their investors. Some firms claim they can break even and even make large profits with benchmark WTI prices below $50 or even $40 per barrel.

It remains unclear if these figures apply to full lifecycle costs (including overheads) and all the parts of all the shale plays (or just the most productive sweet spots). However, Harold Hamm, chief executive of Continental Resources, a large shale producer in North Dakota and Oklahoma, has said prices need to be above $50 to be sustainable. Prices below $40 would cause drillers to idle rigs again, Hamm said in a television interview earlier this summer ("Harold Hamm warns oil prices below $40 will idle U.S. drilling", CNBC, June 28).

Following a cyclical downturn between the middle of 2014 and the middle of 2016, the oil market has discovered the breakeven price for the U.S. shale sector. Some shale producers have lower breakeven prices than the average, and some higher, but the sector as a whole seems to need around $50 to grow production profitably.

BREAKEVEN PRICE
Empirical evidence suggests Hamm's figures are roughly correct, with shale producers making small losses just under $50 per barrel. The number of active drilling rigs has levelled off in recent weeks after benchmark WTI prices declined from $54 in late February to just $43 in late June (tmsnrt.rs/2hJXkZG).

Changes in the rig count tend to follow changes in benchmark WTI prices with a lag of around 16-20 weeks In recent weeks, many shale producers have also announced small reductions in capital spending for the second half of 2017 as they tighten budgets in response to the fall in oil prices.

Taken as a whole, the indications are that the sector's average breakeven price is close to $50, plus or minus a few dollars per barrel, which should also act as a floor for oil prices going forward. Some shale producers managed to hedge their production for this year late in 2016 or early in 2017 when benchmark oil prices were slightly higher than $50. In most cases the realised post-hedging price is a few dollars below $50 as a result of hedging and transportation costs.

Pioneer Resources, one of the most active hedgers, realised a price of $45 per barrel during the second quarter of 2017, or $46.59 including other derivative items, compared with a benchmark WTI price of $48.28. But most shale producers have so far hedged only a relatively small proportion of their anticipated production for 2018. Pioneer has hedged around 90 percent of its output for the rest of the year, but only 50 percent for 2018, according to its most-recent investor presentation.

Shale producers still have some time to decide whether to hedge more production for 2018, and at what price level, which leaves them with some valuable optionality. WTI futures prices for calendar 2018 are trading around $50, up from $45 in June, posing a question for shale firms about whether to hedge now or wait and hope for still higher prices (tmsnrt.rs/2hJqhVw). For the last we
teo
09.08.2017 18:23
#11495

Shale producers still have some time to decide whether to hedge more production for 2018, and at what price level, which leaves them with some valuable optionality. WTI futures prices for calendar 2018 are trading around $50, up from $45 in June, posing a question for shale firms about whether to hedge now or wait and hope for still higher prices (tmsnrt.rs/2hJqhVw). For the last week, WTI prices have traded in a relatively narrow range around $50, supported from below by the breakeven needs of the shale firms, but capped from above by the threat of renewed producer forward sales.




Endret 09.08.2017 18:23 av teo
blåball
11.08.2017 12:46
#3583

Stigende olje etterspørsel , mer enn forventet , estimater for olje etterspørsel har vært for lave , og korrigeres opp i ettertid .

Oljetilbud er på det jevne frem til år 2020 , OPEC ved Saudi Arabia kutter mest i eksport .

Strategiske oljelager bygges opp og ikke ned . ( Nord Korea og Midtøsten er grunnlaget for det. )

55 Dollar for Brent Oljen er neste motstand , WTI olje på 53 Dollar .

Bull .
OldNick
13.08.2017 12:17
#19406

Ferie-tid for undertegnede.

Data for the week ending Aug. 04, 2017

Estimater fra Platts, Reuters, WSJ:
Crude: +x.x, -2.8, +x.x
Gasoline: +x.x, -1.5, +x.x
Distillates: +x.x, -0.1, +x.x
______

API Aug. 08, 2017

Crude: -7.84 mb
Gasoline: +1.53 mb
Distillates: -0.16 mb
Cushing: +0.32 mb
______

EIA Aug. 09, 2017

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Aug. 04, 2017

EIA: Details of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Aug. 04, 2017
______

Crude: -6.50 mb
Gasoline: +3.40 mb
Distillate: -1.70 mb
Total petroleum: -4.6 mb
______

Stockpiles: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate, Total (mb)

05/19/2017: 516.3, 239.9, 146.3, 1336.2
05/26/2017: 509.9, 237.0, 146.7, 1331.0
06/02/2017: 513.2, 240.3, 151.1, 1346.5
06/09/2017: 511.5, 242.4, 151.4, 1353.3
06/16/2017: 509.1, 241.9, 152.5, 1351.4
06/23/2017: 509.2, 241.0, 152.3, 1352.2
06/30/2017: 502.9, 237.3, 150.4, 1338.8
07/07/2017: 495.4, 235.7, 153.6, 1334.9
07/14/2017: 490.6, 231.2, 151.4, 1324.7
07/21/2017: 483.4, 230.2, 149.6, 1315.3
07/28/2017: 481.9, 227.7, 149.4, 1316.4
08/04/2017: 475.4, 231.1, 147.7, 1311.8
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Gasoline and total products supplied (4-week running average, mb/d, % y-o-y change)

05/19/2017: 9.4, -1.9%, 20.2, -0.8%
05/26/2017: 9.4, -0.7%, 20.4, +0.1%
06/02/2017: 9.6, -0.7%, 20.1, -1.2%
06/09/2017: 9.5, -1.2%, 20.1, -1.2%
06/16/2017: 9.6, -1.6%, 20.2, -0.4%
06/23/2017: 9.5, -2.4%, 19.9, -2.7%
06/30/2017: 9.6, -1.8%, 20.6, +0.5%
07/07/2017: 9.7, -0.3%, 20.7, +2.8%
07/14/2017: 9.7, -0.8%, 20.8, +2.1%
07/21/2017: 9.7, -0.3%, 21.2, +4.8%
07/28/2017: 9.8, +0.1%, 20.8, +1.4%
08/04/2017: 9.8, -0.1%, 21.2, +2.3%
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Cushing Storage (mb, w-o-w)

05/19/2017: 65.6, -0.7
05/26/2017: 64.8, -0.8
06/02/2017: 63.4, -1.4
06/09/2017: 62.2, -1.2
06/16/2017: 61.1, -1.1
06/23/2017: 60.8, -0.3
06/30/2017: 59.5, -1.3
07/07/2017: 57.6, -1.9
07/14/2017: 57.5, -0.1
07/21/2017: 55.8, -1.7
07/28/2017: 55.8, +0.0
08/04/2017: 56.4, +0.6
______

Domestic production (mb/d Lower-48, Alaska, total, w-o-w total)

05/19/2017: 8.815, 0.505, 9.320, +0.015
05/26/2017: 8.835, 0.507, 9.342, +0.022
06/02/2017: 8.815, 0.503, 9.318, -0.024
06/09/2017: 8.840, 0.490, 9.330, +0.012
06/16/2017: 8.865, 0.485, 9.350, +0.020
06/23/2017: 8.810, 0.440, 9.250, -0.100
06/30/2017: 8.915, 0.423, 9.338, +0.088
07/07/2017: 8.940, 0.457, 9.397, +0.059
07/14/2017: 8.970, 0.459, 9.429, +0.032
07/21/2017: 9.005, 0.405, 9.410, -0.019
07/28/2017: 9.030, 0.400, 9.430, +0.020
08/04/2017: 9.045, 0.378, 9.423, -0.007
______

Crude Oil Input to Refineries (mb/d, w-o-w), refinery utilization (%)

05/19/2017: 17.281, +0.159, 93.5%
05/26/2017: 17.510, +0.229, 95.0%
06/02/2017: 17.227, -0.283, 94.1%
06/09/2017: 17.256, +0.029, 94.4%
06/16/2017: 17.152, -0.104, 94.0%
06/23/2017: 16.890, -0.262, 92.5%
06/30/2017: 17.141, +0.251, 93.6%
07/07/2017: 17.244, +0.103, 94.5%
07/14/2017: 17.119, -0.125, 94.0%
07/21/2017: 17.285, +0.166, 94.3%
07/28/2017: 17.408, +0.123, 95.4%
08/04/2017: 17.574, +0.166, 96.3%
______

Net Imports, Imports, Exports of Crude (mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w)

05/19/2017: 7.669, +0.165
05/26/2017: 6.682, -0.987
06/02/2017: 7.784, +1.102
06/09/2017: 7.303, -0.481
06/16/2017: 7.359, +0.056
06/23/2017: 7.488, +0.129
06/30/2017: 6.974, -0.514
07/07/2017: 6.692, -0.282
07/14/2017: 7.268, +0.576
07/21/2017: 7.014, -0.254
07/28/2017: 7.551, +0.537
08/04/2017: 7.055, -0.496, 7.662, -0.491, 0.707, +0.005
______

Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products (mb/d, w-o-w)

05/19/2017: 5.227, +0.596
05/26/2017: 3.989, -1.238

Endret 13.08.2017 12:17 av OldNick
OldNick
13.08.2017 12:18
#19407

06/02/2017: 5.516, +1.527
06/09/2017: 4.646, -0.870
06/16/2017: 5.245, +0.599
06/23/2017: 4.233, -1.012
06/30/2017: 4.917, +0.684
07/07/2017: 3.701, -1.116
07/14/2017: 4.435, +0.634
07/21/2017: 4.588, +0.153
07/28/2017: 5.000, +0.412
08/04/2017: 5.478, +0.478
______

Råolje- (-6.5m fat), destillat- (-1.7m fat) og totale petroleums-lagre (-4.6m fat) falt, mens bensin-lagrene (+3.4m fat) steg. Cushing-lagrene (+0.6m fat) steg også forrige uke. OK overenstemmelse mellom API og EIA's tall denne gangen, dog har API et høyere råolje-lager enn EIA.

Fallet i rå-olje lagre forrige uke skyldes en kombinasjon av lavere netto-import og høyere råolje-inntak til raffineriene. Ingen endring i SPR-lager forrige uke.

Produktlagrene sank noe, på tross av at bensin økte, noe som skyldes at volumene levert til markedet var høyere enn summen av økt netto-import av produkter og økt produksjon fra raffineriene. Oppsummert så var sum av rå-olje, bensin og destillat-lagrene ned med -4.8m fat ift. uken før (inkludert SPR).

EIA's produksjonsestimat var forrige uke NED (-7k f/d). "Lower-48" steg (+15k f/d) mens Alaska falt (-22k f/d).

Forrige uke var etterspørselen etter totale petr.produkter kraftig opp (på nivå med 2 uker siden), mens den var nesten uendret for bensin. 4 ukers snitt y-o-y er positivt for totale petr.produkter, svakt negativ for bensin.

Forrige uke var råolje-importen fra OPEC kraftig ned fra uken før, -0.8m f/d (til 2.8m f/d summert). Nigeria, Angola og Kuwait var (betydelig) opp, mens S.Arabia (-0.62m f/d), Iraq (-0.57m f/d), Venezuela og Equador var ned. Importen fra "non-OPEC" var svakt opp (Mexico). Import av ukjent opprinnelse var noe opp forrige uke.

Rapporten var svakt bullish.








Produksjons- og forecast-chart, oppdatert med ukens produksjonstall, samt nytt forecast fra STEO-rapporten (ref. teo #11491). Ser ut som forecast-tallene er justert svakt lavere (ift. forrige STEO).

______

BMO: Crude and Refined Petroleum Storage Charts (PDF)
______

EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for week ending Aug. 04, 2017

Aug. 10, 2017

Totalt US-lager: 3 038Bscf
Endring w-o-w: +28Bscf






______

BMO: US Natural Gas Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Dagens nord-Amerikanske riggstatistikk fra Baker Hughes

Nord-American Rotary Rig Count Summary, Aug. 11, 2017 (PDF)

I gårsdagens rapport fra Baker Hughes falt antall rigger i nord-Amerika med -2 enheter i uke 32-2017, av disse falt antallet med -5 i USA og steg med +3 i Canada.

I USA falt antall landrigger med -6 enheter, mens antall offshore-rigger steg med +1 enhet.

I USA steg antall oljerigger +3 enheter, mens antall gassrigger falt med -8. Antall horisontale rigger falt med -6 enheter, mens antall vertikale rigger falt med -1. Antall oljerigger i USA er nå 768 enheter, mens antall gassrigger er 181. Antall landrigger er 928 enheter, mens antall rigger offshore er 18 i USA.

Endret 13.08.2017 12:18 av OldNick
OldNick
13.08.2017 12:18
#19408

I Canada steg antall oljerigger med +3 enheter, mens antall gassrigger var uendret. Antall rigger offshore er 1.

Av stater i USA utmerket Texas seg med et fall på -7 rigger. For de andre var det ingen eller (+/-) 1 rigg endring. Av felt i USA falt Eagle Ford og Permian med -3 og -2 rigger hver mens Bakken var uendret.

Denne rigg-rapporten var nokså nøytral og markedet reagerte lite.

Vi ser fortsatt utflating i de viktige skifer-feltene selv om både Permian og E.Ford viste små fall.
______

BMO: Rotary Rig Count charts per 11Aug2017 (PDF)
______

Interessant artikkel, men vær obs på at andre artikler fra samme mann ikke alltid har vært etterrettelige.

Moscow and Riyadh Move Closer to Accord

Dr. Kent Moors, Energy Capital Research Group
Aug. 08, 2017

______

EN interessant artikkel som diskuterer de dårlige resultatene fra ulike skifer-selskaper, og spesielt problemene med vannforbruket i tørre området som mye av Permian-området dekker.

U.S FRACKING OIL INDUSTRY IN TROUBLE: Investors Losing Faith??

POSTED BY SRSROCCO
Aug. 9, 2017

______

IEA Monthly Oil Market Report

Aug. 11, 2017

Highlights

New data for non-OECD countries for 2015 reduces global oil demand by an average 330 kb/d in 2015-2018. For 2017, growth has been revised up to 1.5 mb/d, with demand reaching 97.6 mb/d. In 2018, growth slows slightly to 1.4 mb/d when demand will be 99.0 mb/d. In Q4-2018, demand will reach 100.1 mb/d.

In July, global oil supply increased by 520 kb/d versus June. It was the third consecutive monthly increase. Global supply is up 500 kb/d on a year ago.

Non-OPEC output is expected to expand by 0.7 mb/d in 2017 and 1.4 mb/d in 2018, including 0.6 mb/d and 1.0 mb/d, respectively, for the US. The ten non-OPEC countries cooperating with OPEC saw their compliance rate improve to 67% in July.

OPEC crude output rose by 230 kb/d in July to a 2017 high of 32.84 mb/d, led by a strong recovery in Libya. Output from the 12 members included in the output pact edged up, eroding the compliance rate to 75%, the lowest this year. Year-to-date compliance is 87%.

OECD industry stocks fell in June by 19.3 mb to 3 021 mb on strong refinery runs and oil product exports, but are still 219 mb above the five-year average. In Q2-2017, global oil stocks drew by 0.5 mb/d, including 0.2 mb/d in the OECD. Provisional data shows further falls in July, including the largest monthly US crude stock draw for more than three years.

Benchmark crude prices rose by $1-2/bbl in July with higher crude demand from refiners and anticipated oil field maintenance. Sweet-sour spreads widened for the first time in four months. Strong demand and refinery outages in Europe boosted diesel and gasoline prices.

Refining throughput is expected to reach its annual peak in August, with runs at 81.4 mb/d. Q3-2017 throughput is forecast to grow 0.9 mb/d y-o-y. Global refining activity will seasonally decline in September and October, before bouncing back in November.








mer på link

Endret 13.08.2017 12:28 av OldNick
OldNick
14.08.2017 21:23
#19414

Bjarne Schieldrop, SEB Markets om siste IEA-rapport.

Råvareanalytiker ler av IEA-anslag

Sebs analytiker mener IEA har gått seg vill i sine egne regneark.

Johan Sundberg, E24.no
11.08.2017

______

OPEC kom også med sin månedsrapport for oljemarkedet i forrige uke.

I likhet med IEA, så økte OPEC etterspørselsforecastet for 2018 (med +100k f/d).

OPEC Boosts Oil-Demand Outlook While Its Production Rises

Grant Smith, Bloomerg
10.08.2017

______

Opinion: Stop believing these 5 oil myths and start buying energy stocks

Michael Brush, columnist, Marketwatch
Aug. 10, 2017

______

Så en kommentar til denne artikkelen at de fleste Venezuelanske generalene var satt i fengsel, og at de var erstattet av kubansk personell.

Noen som har bedre info?

5 Reasons Why Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro Won't Last Much Longer

Ian Bremmer, TIME Magazine
Aug 11, 2017

______

Saudi's råolje-lager falt til nesten 5-års lav på 259m fat i mai.





Og eksporten ser også ut til å ha falt i 2017 (iflg. disse tallene)





JODI-data
______

Hedge funds gamble for a third time on oil rebalancing

John Kemp, Reuters
Aug. 14, 2017



Kemp's chart-samling (PDF)
______

Phil nevner nyheter fra China som indikerer at raffineri-aktriviteten i CHina er tilbake på Sept. 2016 nivå.

Wow, er det grunnen til nesten $1.50 fall i oljeprisene i ettermiddag?

Were Still Standing

The Energy Report 08/14/17

Phil Flynn, Price Futures Group blog
Aug. 14, 2017

______

EIA kom ut med sin månedlige Drilling Productivity Report i dag.

Den viste:

- EIA forventer at skifer-olje produksjonen øker +117k f/d fra Aug. til Sept.
- Drøyt 1/2-parten av dette (+64k f/d) i Permian, resten fordelt på E.Ford, Bakken og de andre feltene som inngår i undersøkelsen.
- "New-well oil production per rig" sank i Permian og Eagle Ford (som forrige måned), men steg svakt i Bakken.

Endret 14.08.2017 21:25 av OldNick
blåball
14.08.2017 23:58
#3587

" Wow " , Dollaren styrket seg i verdi mot det fleste valutaer , olje og gull pris litt ned .

Trekk i oljelager ned til 5 års snitt i Saudi Arabia ?

Børsnotering i USA : for det Statlige Oljeselskapet i Saudi Arabia ? ( Og dermed kan Saudi Arabia investere gradvis i andre oljeselskaper og fornybar energimix , ikke ulikt Statoil strategi . )

Bull .
blåball
15.08.2017 17:34
#3588

Dollaren styrket seg mot det fleste valutaer i dag også , olje og gull pris litt ned .
highlander
16.08.2017 11:29
#7362

Pareto Securities har kuttet i sine oljeprisestimater fremover, ifølge en analyseoppdatering.

Meglerhusets nye estimater for Brent:

2017: 53 USD/fat (tidl. 60 USD/fat)
2018: 60 USD/fat (tidl. 70 USD/fat)
2019: 65 USD/fat (tidl. 72,5 USD/fat)
2020: 70 USD/fat (tidl. 75 USD/fat)

Som en følge av nedjusterte oljeprisestimater kutter meglerhuset samtidig i kursmålene for følgende oljeaksjer, men opprettholder allikevel kjøpsanbefalingene:

Statoil: 185 kr (vs. tidl. 200)
DNO: 12 kr (vs. tidl. 14)
Aker BP: 160 kr (vs. tidl. 180)
OldNick
16.08.2017 18:27
#19422

Data for the week ending Aug. 11, 2017

Estimater fra Platts, Reuters, WSJ:
Crude: +x.x, -3.2, +x.x
Gasoline: +x.x, -1.5, +x.x
Distillates: +x.x, -0.6, +x.x
______

API Aug. 15, 2017

Crude: -9.16 mb
Gasoline: +0.30 mb
Distillates: -2.07 mb
Cushing: +1.71 mb
______

EIA Aug. 16, 2017

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Aug. 11, 2017

EIA: Details of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Aug. qq, 2017
______

Crude: -8.90 mb
Gasoline: +0.00 mb
Distillate: +0.70 mb
Total petroleum: -7.3 mb
______

Stockpiles: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate, Total (mb)

05/26/2017: 509.9, 237.0, 146.7, 1331.0
06/02/2017: 513.2, 240.3, 151.1, 1346.5
06/09/2017: 511.5, 242.4, 151.4, 1353.3
06/16/2017: 509.1, 241.9, 152.5, 1351.4
06/23/2017: 509.2, 241.0, 152.3, 1352.2
06/30/2017: 502.9, 237.3, 150.4, 1338.8
07/07/2017: 495.4, 235.7, 153.6, 1334.9
07/14/2017: 490.6, 231.2, 151.4, 1324.7
07/21/2017: 483.4, 230.2, 149.6, 1315.3
07/28/2017: 481.9, 227.7, 149.4, 1316.4
08/04/2017: 475.4, 231.1, 147.7, 1311.8
08/11/2017: 466.5, 231.1, 148.4, 1304.5
______

Gasoline and total products supplied (4-week running average, mb/d, % y-o-y change)

05/26/2017: 9.4, -0.7%, 20.4, +0.1%
06/02/2017: 9.6, -0.7%, 20.1, -1.2%
06/09/2017: 9.5, -1.2%, 20.1, -1.2%
06/16/2017: 9.6, -1.6%, 20.2, -0.4%
06/23/2017: 9.5, -2.4%, 19.9, -2.7%
06/30/2017: 9.6, -1.8%, 20.6, +0.5%
07/07/2017: 9.7, -0.3%, 20.7, +2.8%
07/14/2017: 9.7, -0.8%, 20.8, +2.1%
07/21/2017: 9.7, -0.3%, 21.2, +4.8%
07/28/2017: 9.8, +0.1%, 20.8, +1.4%
08/04/2017: 9.8, -0.1%, 21.2, +2.3%
08/11/2017: 9.7, -0.3%, 21.2, +2.0%
______

Cushing Storage (mb, w-o-w)

05/26/2017: 64.8, -0.8
06/02/2017: 63.4, -1.4
06/09/2017: 62.2, -1.2
06/16/2017: 61.1, -1.1
06/23/2017: 60.8, -0.3
06/30/2017: 59.5, -1.3
07/07/2017: 57.6, -1.9
07/14/2017: 57.5, -0.1
07/21/2017: 55.8, -1.7
07/28/2017: 55.8, +0.0
08/04/2017: 56.4, +0.6
08/11/2017: 57.0, +0.6
______

Domestic production (mb/d Lower-48, Alaska, total, w-o-w total)

05/26/2017: 8.835, 0.507, 9.342, +0.022
06/02/2017: 8.815, 0.503, 9.318, -0.024
06/09/2017: 8.840, 0.490, 9.330, +0.012
06/16/2017: 8.865, 0.485, 9.350, +0.020
06/23/2017: 8.810, 0.440, 9.250, -0.100
06/30/2017: 8.915, 0.423, 9.338, +0.088
07/07/2017: 8.940, 0.457, 9.397, +0.059
07/14/2017: 8.970, 0.459, 9.429, +0.032
07/21/2017: 9.005, 0.405, 9.410, -0.019
07/28/2017: 9.030, 0.400, 9.430, +0.020
08/04/2017: 9.045, 0.378, 9.423, -0.007
08/11/2017: 9.070, 0.432, 9.502, +0.079
______

Crude Oil Input to Refineries (mb/d, w-o-w), refinery utilization (%)

05/26/2017: 17.510, +0.229, 95.0%
06/02/2017: 17.227, -0.283, 94.1%
06/09/2017: 17.256, +0.029, 94.4%
06/16/2017: 17.152, -0.104, 94.0%
06/23/2017: 16.890, -0.262, 92.5%
06/30/2017: 17.141, +0.251, 93.6%
07/07/2017: 17.244, +0.103, 94.5%
07/14/2017: 17.119, -0.125, 94.0%
07/21/2017: 17.285, +0.166, 94.3%
07/28/2017: 17.408, +0.123, 95.4%
08/04/2017: 17.574, +0.166, 96.3%
08/11/2017: 17.565, -0.009, 96.1%
______

Net Imports, Imports, Exports of Crude (mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w)

05/26/2017: 6.682, -0.987
06/02/2017: 7.784, +1.102
06/09/2017: 7.303, -0.481
06/16/2017: 7.359, +0.056
06/23/2017: 7.488, +0.129
06/30/2017: 6.974, -0.514
07/07/2017: 6.692, -0.282
07/14/2017: 7.268, +0.576
07/21/2017: 7.014, -0.254
07/28/2017: 7.551, +0.537
08/04/2017: 7.055, -0.496, 7.662, -0.491, 0.707, +0.005
08/11/2017: 7.249, +0.194, 8.126, +0.364, 0.877, +0.170
______

Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products (mb/d, w-o-w)

05/26/2017: 3.989, -1.238
06/02/2017: 5.516, +1.527

Endret 16.08.2017 18:27 av OldNick
OldNick
16.08.2017 18:28
#19423

06/09/2017: 4.646, -0.870
06/16/2017: 5.245, +0.599
06/23/2017: 4.233, -1.012
06/30/2017: 4.917, +0.684
07/07/2017: 3.701, -1.116
07/14/2017: 4.435, +0.634
07/21/2017: 4.588, +0.153
07/28/2017: 5.000, +0.412
08/04/2017: 5.478, +0.478
08/11/2017: 4.633, -0.845
______

Råolje- (-8.9m fat), destillat- (-0.7m fat) og totale petroleums-lagre (-7.3m fat) falt, mens bensin-lagrene (+0.0m fat) var uendret. Cushing-lagrene (+0.6m fat) steg forrige uke. OK overenstemmelse mellom API og EIA's tall denne gangen, dog har API et høyere råolje-lager enn EIA.

Fallet i rå-olje lagre forrige er vanskelig å forklare, siden netto-importen og produksjonen innenlands økte og råolje-inntak til raffineriene var nesten uendret. Det synes nok også EIA, som endret justeringsfaktoren tilsvarende (for å få regnestykket i balanse). Ingen endring i SPR-lager forrige uke.

Produktlagrene sank noe, noe som at nettoeksporten økte mer enn volumene levert til markedet sank. Oppsummert så var sum av rå-olje, bensin og destillat-lagrene ned med -9.6m fat ift. uken før (inkludert SPR).

EIA's produksjonsestimat var forrige uke opp (+79k f/d). "Lower-48" steg (+25k f/d) mens Alaska steg (+54k f/d).

Forrige uke var etterspørselen ned både for totale petr.produkter og bensin. 4 ukers snitt y-o-y er positivt for totale petr.produkter, svakt negativ for bensin.

Forrige uke var råolje-importen fra OPEC opp fra uken før, +0.3m f/d (til 3.2m f/d summert). S.Arabia, Iraq, Angola, Equador, Venezuela og Kuwait var alle opp, mens kun Nigeira (-0.37m f/d) var ned. Importen fra "non-OPEC" var opp (Columbia). Import av ukjent opprinnelse var noe ned forrige uke.

Rapporten var bullish, men markedet sendte allikevel oljeprisene ned $0.5.










Endring i US kommersielle råolje-lagre fra 1/1.
______

BMO: Crude and Refined Petroleum Storage Charts (PDF)
______

BofA-ML sitt syn på oljemarkedet pr. 14 Aug.:




______

S.Arabia vil favorisere NYSE-listing for Aramco fremfor LSE.

Begrunnelse: politisk
Risiko: NYSE kan forlange mer data frigjort enn S.Arabia og Aramco er villige til å gi fra seg. (Aramco reserve-data har hittil vært en stathemmelighet)

Saudi Arabia may favour New York for Aramco listing despite risks: sources

Reuters
Aug. 11, 2017

______

Oljeprisen har falt mandag ettermiddag grunnet svake etterspørselstall fra China.

Oil prices fall 2.5 percent on strong dollar, weak China data

Jessica Resnick-Ault, Reuters
Aug. 14, 2017

______

SPR (under DOE i USA) planlegger å selge ytterligere 14 mill. fat råolje fra strategiske lager i løpet av 2018.

DOE Plans Sale of Crude Oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve

PR
Aug. 15, 2017

______

LEAKED EMAILS: SAUDI POWER BEHIND THE THRONE "WANTS OUT OF YEMEN"

Ryan Grim
Aug. 14, 2017


Endret 16.08.2017 18:46 av OldNick
olejoerg
17.08.2017 21:04
#5098

Mulig jeg misforstår noe, men det virker som vi snart kan få et stemningsskifte innen olje. Det kan se ut som propaganda nå overdøver signaler markedet absolutt burde fange opp. Personlig tror jeg en del hedge-fond og andre allerede har oppfanget signalene og agerer på dem men fremdeles synes det er greit at den rådende stemningen får fortsette en stund til. Signalene jeg snakker om er disse:

1. Oljeprisen er i ferd med å gå fra contango til backwardation, dette vil medføre fallende lagre da det i en slik setting ikke er lønnsomt å lagre.
2. Saudi Arabia har ikke hatt lavere lagre siden 2012 selv om de eksporterer mindre enn tidligere. Hva betyr dette mon tro, har de ikke den produksjonskapasitet de påstår? Eller er det noe i disse ryktene om store korrosjonsproblemer på betydelige felt i SA?
3. Jeg leser hver dag artikler om den fantastiske produksjonsøkningen til shale, men finner ikke disse tallene igjen i Weekly Status Report. Faktisk har lower-48 bare økt produksjonen med ca 270 i/fat på 3 måneder ifølge rapportene. Og når det på høsten kommer reviderte tall for de siste månedene så vil nok dagens påståtte produksjon bli justert ned (sånn har det alltid vært de siste årene).
4. Veldig liten interesse for lisensrunder i GOM, som deepwater de fleste andre steder i verden.
5. IAE har nedjustert anslagene for Iraks produksjonsøkning, landet har ikke råd.
6. Irans håp om produksjonsvekst henger også i en tynn tråd, Trumps innstilling skremmer mange vekk.
7. Det er tendenser til litt uro i Nigeria.
8. I Russland er det tegn til at de modne feltene er nettopp det, russerne ser ut til å revurdere mer investeringer på disse og heller bruke kapitalen til å lete etter nye forekomster andre steder.
9. Alle har etter hvert landet på konsensus om "lower for longer", hvis historien innen råvarer har lært oss noe så er det dette: Når alle aktører i et råvaremarked er enige om fremtiden så er det eneste du kan være sikker på at sånn blir det ikke. Alle kutter og utsetter investeringer og plutselig så ble realiteten en helt annen.

Endret 17.08.2017 21:12 av olejoerg
olejoerg
17.08.2017 21:37
#5099

I tillegg så glemte jeg følgende:

10: Økt gassandel i shale brønner i Permian. Det hevdes at dette er midlertidig uten at jeg forstår hva som menes med det. Kanskje man må være mindre aggressive med fracking eller øke spacingen mellom brønnene eller begge deler. Uansett vil dette virke begrensende på produksjonsveksten.
11: Venezuela er godt og vel i knestående. Det går bare en vei og det vil påvirke oljemarkedet betydelig.
OldNick
18.08.2017 16:07
#19429

EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for week ending Aug. 11, 2017

Aug. 17, 2017

Totalt US-lager: 3 082Bscf (* figure have been revised/EIA)
Endring w-o-w: +53Bscf



Stocks were 254Bscf less than last year at this time and 55Bscf above the five-year average of 3 027Bscf.




______

BMO: US Natural Gas Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Saudi Crude Exports Fall Just as Domestic Stockpiles Dwindle

- Shipments drop to lowest since September 2014: Jodi data
- Energy Minister Al-Falih promised even deeper cuts for August


Claudia Carpenter, Bloomberg
17.08.2017

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, shipped the least oil in almost three years in June, just as domestic stockpiles are dwindling.

Exports fell to 6.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since September 2014, from 6.92 million in May, according to data Thursday on the Joint Organisations Data Initiative website. Domestic stockpiles stood at 256.6 million barrels, the lowest since January 2012, the data show.

"You can assume exports will fall even further going forward because they can't keep running down stockpiles," said Amrita Sen, an analyst at Energy Aspects in London. "It is clear that the rebalancing process is in full swing, we are drawing down stockpiles everywhere."



Saudi Arabia's Energy and Industry Minister Khalid Al-Falih last month promised even deeper cuts to crude exports for August, with shipments capped at 6.6 million barrels a day. The kingdom and Russia are leading the charge of major oil producers seeking to curb a global glut of crude by cutting output through the end of the first quarter of 2018. Benchmark Brent crude prices have dropped 11 percent since the cuts took effect on Jan. 1.


______

Crude Market Shows Enduring Strength Beyond Usual Seasonal Peak

- WTI barrels surge to levels not seen in more than a year
- Middle East, Latin American crudes also trading strongly


Javier Blas, Bloomberg
18.08.2017

The market for physical barrels of crude from places as far apart as Oman and Colombia is strengthening beyond the traditional seasonal peak in demand, a positive indicator for global benchmark futures prices that remain stuck near $50.

Physical differentials -- the price gap between individual grades of crude and widely traded markers like Brent or West Texas Intermediate -- have strengthened over the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's happening even for barrels due to be shipped in late September and October, typically a period of weaker demand due to seasonal refinery maintenance.

"The improvement seen in the physical crude market is persisting beyond the usual summer demand season," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd.



The relative prices of crudes such as Nigeria's Forcados or Norway's Ekofisk are rarely a topic of discussion outside the oil industry, but they are an important indicator.

mer på link

Endret 18.08.2017 16:11 av OldNick
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