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Oljepris VI
OldNick
26.09.2017 17:35
#19533

Singapore -
Iraq's federal government may sue the Kurdistan Regional Government to block its crude exports "as soon as today," a senior oil ministry official told S&P Global Platts on Monday, pending the results of the semi-autonomous region's independence referendum.

Dheyaa Jaafar Hajam al-Musawi, minister councilor for energy affairs at the Iraqi oil ministry, said negotiations, both "public and hidden," were continuing between the federal government and the KRG, but that if the referendum passes today, as expected, a legal battle over the oil province of Kirkuk may follow.

"The conflict would be about Kirkuk, and we hope that will be solved smoothly," he told Platts on the sidelines of the APPEC conference in Singapore. "We hope that Iraq will stay one Iraq."

Over the years, officials in Baghdad have encouraged the KRG to either participate within a federal Iraq or to exit, but oil-rich disputed territories including Kirkuk remain an unresolved flashpoint that is likely scuttle any negotiated separation.

Baghdad has said the referendum, which is non-binding, is unconstitutional, and the international community has largely urged the KRG to call it off.

The referendum is expected to pass, providing the KRG with public backing to launch negotiations with Baghdad for secession.

As for crude exports, the Iraqi government says only the federal government has the right to export oil, while the KRG claims the country is decentralized and authority over oil along with it.

"Only through independence we can secure our future," the KRG's acting president, Masoud Barzani, said in a news conference on Sunday, according to reports.

Most revenue sharing between the federal government and the KRG ended after the KRG began independent oil exports in 2014.

Baghdad in July of that year sued the KRG in a US District Court in Texas to block the unloading of a 1 million barrel cargo that the KRG sent in the United Kalavryta tanker to Galveston.

The KRG five months later redirected the tanker to offload in Israel, where Baghdad has no diplomatic relations, after the district court rejected the KRG's attempt to have the case dismissed.

More recently, in July, Iraqi officials threatened similar legal action against a cargo loaded by the KRG onto the tanker Neverland that appeared off the coast of Canada, before turning off its transponder and reappearing near Malta.

mer på link
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Iflg. denne pressemeldingen fra IHS Markit Research, så har de anslått utvinnbare ressurser i "Permian" området til mellom 60 og 70 mrd. fat olje. Dette etterat området allerede "har produsert ca. 39 mrd. fat rå-olje over de siste ca. 100 årene, fra over 440 000 brønner".

Markedsverdien av all denne oljen vil være i området US$3 300 mrd. på (gårs) dagens WTI-pris

Fra beskrivelsen ser dette ut til å være basert på et meget solid arbeid fra IHS.

Sakser: "To our knowledge, this is the most ambitious, comprehensive Permian Basin geologic interpretation analysis and modeling project of its kind to date



The Permian Basin is Headed for a Second Peak. Source: IHS Markit 2017


'Game-Changing' New Research on Prolific Permian Basin Estimates 60 Billion to 70 Billion Barrels Remain, IHS Markit Says

Comprehensive 3D modeled interpretation delivers corrected producing formations for more than 70 Permian Basin plays.

John Roberts, Prithiraj Chungkham, IHS Markit
Sept. 25, 2017


Endret 26.09.2017 17:36 av OldNick
OldNick
26.09.2017 18:17
#19534

Canadiske Dennis Gartman har av en del tradere blitt sett på som en kontra-indikator.

Regelen har vært:
- Gartman er bearish, kjøp olje-futures
- Gartman er bullsih, selg/short olje-futures

Nå er han etter flere år bearish, blitt bullish.

Dennis Gartman turns a little bullish on oil, thinks crude could hit $55

- Gartman said the term structure of oil is "yelling" and "screaming" at him that something is happening
- The one thing that can keep people from being too bullish on the oil market is there are many uncompleted wells out there, he said

Angelica LaVito, CNBC.com
Sept. 25, 2017


ca. 3 1/2 min intervju på link. Han ser helt edru ut også :-)
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Rystad Energy er uenig med EIA's nye estimater fra deres måendsrapport STEO.

- Rystad mener EIA overestimerer produksjonen i Q3 og Q4 (særlig Aug-2017, hvos de ser EIA's estimat ca. 0.5m f/d for høyt!), mens
- de underestimerer (kraftig) forventet olje-produksjon i 2018 (særlig H2-2018)

RYSTAD ENERGY'S OIL MARKETS VIEW ON US OIL SUPPLY AND EXPLANATION OF RECENT EIA DATA REVISIONS

Author: Rystad Energy
Sept. 14, 2017



Illustrert på grafen under.



mer på link
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Soørs om vi nå har fått et fundamentalt løft i oljeprisingen pga. EIA's blundere?

Og at T.Kjus av de norske analytikeren igjen har hatt de beste dataene?

Harold Hamm Says EIA Shale Forecast Is 'Flat Wrong'



Bloomberg Video (ca. 10 min)
Sept. 21, 2017

Harold Hamm, Continental Resources chief executive officer, discusses the state of the U.S. energy industry with Bloomberg's Alix Steel on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

[Kommentar:

Hamm sier i intervjuet at EIA var ca. 0.5mm f/d for høyt for US-produksjon i sommer.

Han (og CLR/Continental) delte sine data med EIA, og han opplevde at EIA korrigerte sine data noe, men mener de fortsatt er ca. 0.36m f/d for høyt.]
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Oil Trader Trafigura Heralds End of 'Lower for Longer' Crude Era

- Global market could face a crude shortage by 2019: Ben Luckock
- Trading company is bullish on oil demand, especially in India


Dan Murtaugh, Javier Blas, Heesu Lee, Bloomberg
26.09.2017

The age of persistently weak oil prices is nearing its end, with demand booming and a supply squeeze in the offing, according to Trafigura Group.

The global market could face a shortage by 2019, Ben Luckock, co-head of Group Market Risk at the third-largest independent oil trader, said at the S&P Global Platts APPEC conference on Tuesday. As much as 9 million barrels a day of supply could be lost to crude-well declines by 2019, and the company is bullish on demand, he said, especially in India, the world's fastest growing oil consumer.

"We are nearing the end of 'lower for longer' oil," Luckock said, referring to a term used as far back as April 2015 by BP Plc boss Bob Dudley as a global glut wreaked havoc on crude prices worldwide.

The forecast was made as the who's who of the oil industry gathered in Singapore for the annual Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference, where participants turned bullish and executives pointed to strong demand and falling inventories. If proven right, it would brighten t

Endret 26.09.2017 18:19 av OldNick
eshuse
27.09.2017 16:47
#2566

Oljelagrene fortsetter å falle i USA:

Totale lagre ned 5,8 millioner fat (råolje ned 2,6 millioner fat)
Forbruk siste uke på sterke 21,1 millioner fat/dag
eshuse
27.09.2017 16:47
#2567

.

Endret 27.09.2017 16:46 av eshuse
eshuse
27.09.2017 16:47
#2568

.

Endret 27.09.2017 16:47 av eshuse
Beins
27.09.2017 17:12
#11195

Vi har sett en stadig diskrepans mellom EIAs Weekly og Monthly produksjonstall der gapet bare har økt, jfr OldNicks innlegg. Det er så opp i dagen at det er rart EIA bare har fortsatt omtrent som før med veldig høye uketall.

Rystads tall er dog ganske bearish da de legger opp til en formidabel US vekst nå utover høsten der man kan komme opp i 9,6 - 9,7 mill fat/d. Dette skal så fortsette inn i 2018. Kompletteringstakten for DUCs er ganske voldsom, jfr artikkelen som Old Nick refererer fra. Hva med kapasitetsbegrensingene alle har snakket om, ikke minst oljeservicebedrifter?

Endret 27.09.2017 17:27 av Beins
OldNick
28.09.2017 09:57
#19542

Data for the week ending Sep. 22, 2017

Estimater fra Platts, Reuters, WSJ:
Crude: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
Gasoline: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
Distillates: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
______

API Sep. 26, 2017

Crude: -0.46 mb
Gasoline: +1.47 mb
Distillates: -4.53 mb
Cushing: +1.06 mb
______

EIA Sep. 27, 2017

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 22, 2017

EIA: Details of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 22, 2017
______

Crude: -1.85 mb
Gasoline: +1.11 mb
Distillate: -0.81 mb
Total petroleum: -5.1 mb
______

Stockpiles: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate, Total (mb)

07/07/2017: 495.4, 235.7, 153.6, 1334.9
07/14/2017: 490.6, 231.2, 151.4, 1324.7
07/21/2017: 483.4, 230.2, 149.6, 1315.3
07/28/2017: 481.9, 227.7, 149.4, 1316.4
08/04/2017: 475.4, 231.1, 147.7, 1311.8
08/11/2017: 466.5, 231.1, 148.4, 1304.5
08/18/2017: 463.2, 229.9, 148.4, 1304.5
08/25/2017: 457.8, 229.9, 149.2, 1303.4
09/01/2017: 462.4, 226.7, 147.8, 1310.4
09/08/2017: 468.2, 218.3, 144.6, 1312.2
09/15/2017: 472.8, 216.2, 138.9, 1305.6
09/22/2017: 471.0, 217.3, 138.0, 1300.5
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Total products, gasoline and distillate supplied (4-week running average, mb/d, % y-o-y change)

07/07/2017: 20.7, +2.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/14/2017: 20.8, +2.1%, 9.7, -0.8%
07/21/2017: 21.2, +4.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/28/2017: 20.8, +1.4%, 9.8, +0.1%
08/04/2017: 21.2, +2.3%, 9.8, -0.1%
08/11/2017: 21.2, +2.0%, 9.7, -0.3%
08/18/2017: 21.0, +1.4%, 9.7, -0.4%, 4.2, +14.4%
08/25/2017: 21.2, +3.4%, 9.7, +0.2%, 4.2, +11.1%
09/01/2017: 20.8, +0.2%, 9.5, -1.0%, 4.1, +9.9%
09/08/2017: 20.4, -0.8%, 9.6, +0.2%, 4.0, +10.4%
09/15/2017: 20.4, +0.5%, 9.5, -0.2%, 4.1, +14.5%
09/22/2017: 20.3, +1.3%, 9.4, +0.6%, 4.0, +13.9%
______

Cushing Storage (mb, w-o-w)

07/07/2017: 57.6, -1.9
07/14/2017: 57.5, -0.1
07/21/2017: 55.8, -1.7
07/28/2017: 55.8, +0.0
08/04/2017: 56.4, +0.6
08/11/2017: 57.0, +0.6
08/18/2017: 56.5, -0.5
08/25/2017: 57.2, +0.7
09/01/2017: 58.0, +0.8
09/08/2017: 59.1, +1.1
09/15/2017: 59.8, +0.7
09/22/2017: 61.0, +1.2
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Domestic crude production (mb/d Lower-48, Alaska, total, w-o-w total)

07/07/2017: 8.940, 0.457, 9.397, +0.059
07/14/2017: 8.970, 0.459, 9.429, +0.032
07/21/2017: 9.005, 0.405, 9.410, -0.019
07/28/2017: 9.030, 0.400, 9.430, +0.020
08/04/2017: 9.045, 0.378, 9.423, -0.007
08/11/2017: 9.070, 0.432, 9.502, +0.079
08/18/2017: 9.082, 0.446, 9.528, +0.026
08/25/2017: 9.070, 0.460, 9.530, +0.002
09/01/2017: 8.287, 0.494, 8.781, -0.749
09/08/2017: 8.869, 0.484, 9.353, +0.572
09/15/2017: 9.048, 0.462, 9.510, +0.157
09/22/2017: 9.064, 0.483, 9.547, +0.037
______

Crude Oil Input to Refineries (mb/d, w-o-w), refinery utilization (%)

07/07/2017: 17.244, +0.103, 94.5%
07/14/2017: 17.119, -0.125, 94.0%
07/21/2017: 17.285, +0.166, 94.3%
07/28/2017: 17.408, +0.123, 95.4%
08/04/2017: 17.574, +0.166, 96.3%
08/11/2017: 17.565, -0.009, 96.1%
08/18/2017: 17.461, -0.104, 95.4%
08/25/2017: 17.725, +0.264, 96.6%
09/01/2017: 14.472, -3.253, 79.7%
09/08/2017: 14.078, -0.394, 77.7%
09/15/2017: 15.172, +1.094, 83.2%
09/22/2017: 16.174, +1.002, 88.6%
______

Net Imports, Imports, Exports of Crude (mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w)

07/07/2017: 6.692, -0.282
07/14/2017: 7.268, +0.576
07/21/2017: 7.014, -0.254
07/28/2017: 7.551, +0.537
08/04/2017: 7.055, -0.496, 7.662, -0.491, 0.707, +0.005
08/11/2017: 7.249, +0.194, 8.126, +0.364, 0.877, +0.170
08/18/2017: 7.854, +0.605, 8.790, +0.664, 0.936, +0.059
08/25/2017: 7.003, -0.851, 7.905, -0.885, 0.902, -0.034
09/01/2017: 6.930, -0.073, 7.083, -0.822, 0.153, -0.749

Endret 28.09.2017 09:57 av OldNick
OldNick
28.09.2017 09:58
#19543

09/08/2017: 5.706, -1.224, 6.480, -0.603, 0.774, +0.621
09/15/2017: 6.440, +0.734, 7.368, +0.886, 0.928, +0.154
09/22/2017: 5.936, -0.504, 7.427, +0.059, 1.491, +0.563
______

Imports from OPEC, S.Arbia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Angola, Equador, Nigeria, Venezuela, Other OPEC, Sum OPEC (mb/d)

07/07/2017: 0.851, 0.428, 0, 0.251, 0, 0.159, 0.046, 0.081, 0.823, 0, 2.693
07/14/2017: 0.524, 0.493, 0, 0.556, 0, 0.019, 0.176, 0.241, 0.624, 0, 2.633
07/21/2017: 0.932, 0.823, 0, 0.056, 0, 0.275, 0.143, 0.319, 0.669, 0, 3.217
07/28/2017: 1.174, 1.096, 0, 0.000, 0, 0.200, 0.235, 0.093, 0.820, 0, 3.618
08/04/2017: 0.554, 0.524, 0, 0.191, 0, 0.334, 0.109, 0.586, 0.507, 0, 2.805
08/11/2017: 0.813, 0.716, 0, 0.226, 0, 0.390, 0.145, 0.214, 0.648, 0, 3.152
08/18/2017: 0.987, 0.685, 0, 0.066, 0, 0.192, 0.256, 0.400, 0.987, 0, 3.530
08/25/2017: 0.785, 0.458, 0, 0.012, 0, 0.116, 0.244, 0.072, 0.572, 0, 2.259
09/01/2017: 0.719, 0.240, 0, 0.116, 0, 0.214, 0.159, 0.469, 0.510, 0, 2.427
09/08/2017: 0.663, 0.424, 0, 0.108, 0, 0.066, 0.112, 0.436, 0.640, 0, 2.449
09/15/2017: 0.758, 0.400, 0, 0.072, 0, 0.309, 0.350, 0.389, 0.442, 0, 2.720
09/22/2017: 0.637, 0.133, 0, 0.188, 0, 0.109, 0.249, 0.119, 0.492, 0, 1.927
______

Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products (mb/d, w-o-w)

07/07/2017: 3.701, -1.116
07/14/2017: 4.435, +0.634
07/21/2017: 4.588, +0.153
07/28/2017: 5.000, +0.412
08/04/2017: 5.478, +0.478
08/11/2017: 4.633, -0.845
08/18/2017: 5.323, +0.690
08/25/2017: 5.085, -0.238
09/01/2017: 6.733, +1.648
09/08/2017: 4.698, -2.035
09/15/2017: 4.005, -0.693
09/22/2017: 4.257, +0.252
______

Råolje-lagrene (-1.8m fat), destillat- (-0.8m fat) og totale petroleums-lagre (-5.1m) falt, mens bensin- (+1.1m fat) steg. Cushing-lagrene (+1.2m fat) steg også forrige uke. OK overenstemmelse mellom API og EIA's tall denne gangen.

Fallet i rå-olje lagre skyldes en kombinasjon av inntak til raffineriene øte betydelig, sammen med at netto-importen av råolje sank, noe motvirket av økt, innenlandsks pproduksjon. 0.8m fat levert fra SPR-lager forrige uke.

Produktlagrene sank denne uken. Litt vanskelig å forklare, siden både raffineri-produksjon og produkt-importen økte betydelig mer enn forsyningen av produkter til markedet. Oppsummert så var sum av rå-olje, bensin og destillat-lagrene ned med -2.3m fat ift. uken før (inkludert SPR).

EIA's produksjonsestimat var forrige uke opp (+37k f/d). "Lower-48" steg (+16k f/d) mens Alaska steg (+21k f/d).

Forrige uke var etterspørselen etter totale petr.produkter og bensin betydelig opp, mens destillat var litt ned. 4 ukers snitt y-o-y er positiv for alle.

Forrige uke var råolje-importen fra OPEC ned betydelig fra uken før, -0.99m f/d (til 1.7m f/d summert). Dataene er gitt i tabellen over. Importen fra "non-OPEC" var betydelig opp (pga. alle 3, Canada, Mexico og Colombia).

Import av "ukjent opprinnelse" (mindre eksportører) var også betydelig opp forrige uke.

Det er fortsatt ikke lett å karakterisere rapporten. Spørsmålet er om det fortsatt ligger tankskip fra før "Harvey" som ikke har losset. Spread'en mellom Brent og WTI er fortsatt høy, men er stabilisert og har sluttet å utvide seg (ca. US$5.6 i øyeblikket).







______

BMO: Crude and Refined Petroleum Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Quiz blant deltakerne på Platt's APPEC olje-konferanse i Singapore.

Spørsmålet var: Hva vil oljeprisen (les: Brent) være om 1 år (Sep-2018)?




Endret 28.09.2017 09:59 av OldNick
Beins
28.09.2017 22:21
#11198

DN:

- Prisfallet skyldes gevinstsikring
Torsdag kveld falt prisen på nordsjøoljen Brent mer enn 1,50 dollar fatet, og vippet under 57-tallet.

Oljeanalytiker i DNB Markets Torbjørn Kjus antar at de siste timenes prisnedgang skyldes gevinstsikring.

- Brent var jo overkjøpt rent teknisk. Det steg for fort, da blir det nesten alltid gevinstsikring fra aktører som har vært med opp, kommenterer Kjus til DN torsdag kveld. Han tror prisfallet er en kortvarig dip:

- Mitt prismål for fjerde kvartal er fortsatt 60 dollar fatet.
LinPiao
29.09.2017 11:48
#2967

Om spørreundersøkelsen over her der 68 prosent tror oljeprisen vil holde seg mellom 50 og 60 dollar fatet i september 2018. Men er det ikke det nesten alle undersøkelser viser? At dagens pris vil gjelde om ett år enten dagens oljepris er 35 eller 90 dollar fatet.
Beins
29.09.2017 16:49
#11201

32 dollar fatet i negativ kontantstrøm.

DN: Oljepriser under 50 dollar fatet vil ikke være til å leve med for amerikanske skiferoljeprodusenter, ifølge kredittvurderingsbyrået Moody's. Selskapene har klart å kutte kostnader etter oljeprisfallet i 2014, men analytikerne i byrået tror det blir vanskeligere å kutte noe mer. Og derfor vil ikke selskapene kunne nå break-even-nivå med oljepris under 50 dollar per fat, ifølge byrået. Dette melder CNBC.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) ligger per dags dato like under 52 dollar per fat.

«Til tross for substansielt forbedrede kostnadsstrukturer, vil utforsknings- og produksjonsselskaper bare være i stand til å generere meningsfull kapitaleffektivitet om WTI-prisen er over 50 dollar per fat», skriver analytiker Sreedhar Kona i Moody's, og legger til at prisen på naturgass også må være høy.

Så langt i år er snittprisen på WTI 49,34 dollar per fat, skriver CNBC. Nylig gikk prisen over 50 dollar for første gang på fire måneder, og torsdag var den på sitt høyeste punkt på fem år. Da var prisen 52,86 dollar per fat. Det amerikanske energidepartementet venter at prisen på den amerikanske oljen i gjennomsnitt vil være 48,83 dollar i 2018 og 49,58 i 2018.

Les også: DNB Markets meldte om tørr brønn lenge før selskapet
Også prisen på nordsjøolje har gått opp i den siste måneden. Mandag steg prisen på nordsjøoljen Brent til sitt høyeste nivå på over to år.

Bidro til fallet

Den kraftige produksjonsøkningen fra skiferoljefelter i USA var med å bidra til oljeprisfallet i 2014. Siden den gang har det lenge vært usikkerhet om hvor lav oljepris skiferoljeprodusentene kan leve med. Enkelte anslag har anslått at felter kan være lønnsomme med oljepriser under 30 dollar takket være ny og effektiv teknologi.

Aksjeanalytiker Teodor Sveen Nilsen fortalte nylig til DN at skiferoljeselskapene trenger en oljepris på over 60 dollar fatet for å få en positiv kontantstrøm.

- Det er et eller annet jeg ikke skjønner med den amerikanske skiferoljeindustrien. Den har generert enorme mengder negativ kontantstrøm. Produksjonen har vokst, men de nye fatene har generert 32 dollar i negativ kontantstrøm per fat. Det er helt greit å ha negativ kontantstrøm så lenge man vokser mye, men lønnsomheten for disse selskapene ser ut som den er for dårlig, sa Nilsen.

https://www.dn.no/nyheter/2017/09/29/1103/Olje/moodys-sa-hoy-oljepris-trenger-amerikanske-produsenter
Beins
29.09.2017 17:01
#11202

Citi bank ser strammere oljemarkedet neste år.

Oilprice.com: Now Citi has joined in with a warning: whatever OPEC does, supply will likely get tighter next year.

That's in stark contrast with the general mood, which is a constant worry that the moment OPEC announces the end of its deal, its members will turn the taps back on and start pumping that oil to levels well above the current quotas. According to Citi's Ed Morse, the head of the bank's commodity research, five OPEC members are already pumping at capacity, and a production increase is therefore unlikely.

The members that Morse believes will lead the supply crunch are Iraq, Iran, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya. All of these, bar Venezuela, have announced plans for a ramp-up of their oil output. All of these, at the same time, face problems in ramping up production, but these problems don't all come down to insufficient investment, which Morse blames for the pumping-at-capacity scenario.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Citi-An-Oil-Supply-Squeeze-Is-Inevitable.html

Bjørnene håper likevel på at de mange DUC'er i shale-områdene pluss Russlands ledeige kapasitet skal holde tilbudet så mye oppe at tilstrammingen ikke blir kraftig eller langvarig.

Endret 29.09.2017 17:01 av Beins
Eid
29.09.2017 21:02
#308

Denne uken gikk brent fra å være i moderat backwardation, kun gjeldene for de nærmeste månedene, til å bli veldig markant også langt frem i tid. Det kan bare bety en ting; reell knapphet på olje, lagertrekk og stødig oljeprisøkning.

Link med "bevis":
Futures Brent

Endret 29.09.2017 21:02 av Eid
OldNick
30.09.2017 13:05
#19551

EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for week ending Sept. 22, 2017

Sept. 28, 2017

Totalt US-lager: 3 466Bscf
Endring w-o-w: +58Bscf



Stocks were 127Bscf less than last year at this time and 41Bscf above the five-year average of 3 425Bscf.




______

BMO: US Natural Gas Storage Charts (PDF)
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Fredagens nord-Amerikanske riggstatistikk fra Baker Hughes

Nord-American Rotary Rig Count Summary, Sep. 29, 2017 (PDF)



I gårsdagens rapport fra Baker Hughes falt antall rigger i nord-Amerika med -2 enheter i uke 39-2017, av disse steg antallet med +5 enheter i USA og falt med -7 enheter i Canada.

I USA steg antall landrigger med +3 enheter, det samme med antall offshore-rigger, +3 enheter.

I USA steg antall oljerigger med +6 enheter, mens antall gassrigger falt med -1. Antall horisontale rigger steg med +4 enheter, mens antall vertikale rigger også steg med +4. Antall oljerigger i USA er nå 750 enheter, mens antall gassrigger er 189. Antall landrigger er 916 enheter, mens antall rigger offshore er 22 i USA.

I Canada falt antall oljerigger med -9 enheter, mens antall gassrigger steg med +2. Antall rigger offshore er 1.

Av stater i USA utmerket Utha, Louisiana, Texas og Oklahoma seg med en endring på +4, +2, -2 og -3 rigger hver. For de andre var det ingen eller (+/-) 1 rigg endring. Av felt i USA steg N.Dakota med +1 rigg, Eagle Ford var uendret mens Permian falt med -1 rigg.

Rapporten så ikke ut til å ha noen innvirkning på WTI spot.
______

BMO: Rotary Rig Count charts per 29Sep2017 (PDF)
______

The Long Arm of OPEC

Alison Jones, Duke Univ.
Sept. 11, 2017

______

Russia's Rosneft Expects $40 Oil In 2018

Tsvetana Paraskova, OilPrice.com
Sept. 11, 2017

______

Oil Traders Empty Key Crude Storage Hub

- Companies said to be selling crude from Saldanha Bay in Africa
- Brent crude time-structure strengthens, encouraging sales

Rupert Rowling, Javier Blas, Bloomberg
Sept. 20, 2017

______



EIA's long term global oil forecast
______

Permian could top out in 2021 unless tech overcomes geology, Wood Mac says

Collin Eaton, ouston Chronicle
Sept. 20, 2017

______

Saudi Aramco could reveal accounts in early 2018: report

Argaam
Sept. 20, 2017

______

Exclusive - India's Reliance plans major expansion at world's largest oil refinery complex

Promit Mukherjee, Nidhi Verma, Reuters
Sept. 20, 2017

______

Saudis May Raise Domestic Gasoline Prices by 80%

- Plan would boost gasoline to parity with international prices
- Increases in other Saudi energy prices seen early next year

Wael Mahdi, Vivian Nereim, Bloomberg
Sept. 18, 2017


Endret 30.09.2017 13:07 av OldNick
OldNick
30.09.2017 14:37
#19554


______

Crude oil and petroleum product exports reach record levels in the first half of 2017

EIA
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Can Oil Prices Hit $60 In 2018?

By Nick Cunningham, Oilprice.com
Sept. 20, 2017

______

Venezuela scraping by on dwindling gasoline supply

Argus Media
Sept. 20, 2017

______

Is The EIA Forecast Suppressing The Oil Price?

Michael Lynch, Forbes.com
Sept. 24, 2017

______

Saudi Arabia to allow women to obtain driving licences

King Salman ordered the reform in a royal decree delivered on Tuesday night, requesting that drivers' licences be issued to women who wanted them.

Martin Chulov, Guardian
Sept. 26, 2017

______

California Considers Following China With Combustion-Engine Car Ban

- Countries setting sales end dates pique governor's interest
- Annual state vehicle registrations top France, Italy or Spain

Ryan Beene, John Lippert, Bloomberg
Sept. 26, 2017

______

Analysts Diverge On The Permian's Outlook

Nick Cunningham, EnergyFuse
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Saudi Aramco to venture into non-Saudi crude oil trading: sources

Rania El Gamal, Reuters
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Saudi Aramco said to finish first shale gas project

Aargam
Sept. 27, 2017

______

US drillers won't generate 'meaningful' returns unless oil stays above $50 a barrel, says Moody's

- Drillers need prices to stay above $50 a barrel for oil and $3 per mmBtu for natural gas in order to make a significant return on capital, Moody's says.
- Producers have driven down costs, but capital efficiency now depends on higher oil and gas prices, the ratings agency concludes.

Tom DiChristopher, CNBC.com
Sept. 29, 2017

______

U.S. fuel exports recover after Harvey, offering buyers respite

Ron Bousso, Marianna Parraga, Reuters
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Uganda plans to join OPEC after first oil fields flow in 2020: minister

Platts
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Oil shortages could push prices all the way to $80, commodities expert says

- "The fundamentals are changing and the market is rebalancing," Jodie Gunzberg said.
- Brent closed as $59.02 per barrel on Monday, its highest since July 2015.

Luke Graham, CNBC.com
Sept. 27, 2017

______

Crude oil markets show how to be bullish, but not really

Clive Russell, Reuters columnist
Sept. 28, 2017

______

Platt podcast

KURDISTAN'S INDEPENDENCE POLL RAISES THE HEAT IN IRAQ BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR OIL?

Sept. 28, 2017


(9min varighet)
______

Aramco listing reshapes Saudi Arabia's OPEC oil policy

Rania El Gamal, Alex Lawler, Reuters
Sept. 28, 2017

______

World needs new offshore oil investments to avoid shortages: Hess

Rod Nickel, Reuters
Sept. 28, 2017
Endret 30.09.2017 14:37 av OldNick
OldNick
30.09.2017 14:39
#19555

OPEC Deal With Russia Is Showing Signs of Strain

A failure to renew the oil accord would add further oversupply.

Robin Mills, Bloomberg
Sept. 25, 2017

______

U.S. Fuel Demand Hits Highest Level in a Decade for August

Nico Grant, Bloomberg
Sept. 28, 2017

______

It'll Take Oil Above $50 for Shale Boom, Oil Sands to Pay Off

- Moody's report shows most producers not making enough cash
- Study used measure known as leveraged full cycle ratio

Carlos Caminada, Bloomberg
Sept. 28, 2017

______

Platt podcast

HOW IS US OIL RECUPERATING FROM HARVEY, FROM WELLHEAD TO MIDSTREAM TO REFINING?

Sept. 28, 2017

______

Want to bet on $100 oil in 2018? Some investors already have

- Open interest trebles in December 2018 $100 calls
_ $100 calls now largest strike by open interest for 2018
_ Interest rising in bullish 2018 calls above $75

Amanda Cooper, Reuters
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Video: What will happen with Russia and Saudi Arabia when oil output curbs...

Ed Morse, global head commodities research, Citi, says that Saudi Arabia and Russia need to orchestrate production increases even after the output curbs end.

CNBC.com
Sept. 26, 2017

______

Mideast OPEC producers fret oil price rally may burn out

Rania El Gamal, Reuters
Sept. 28, 2017

______

Video: Here's why crude could rally to $60 by the end of the year

Phillip Streible of RJO Futures says crude oil prices could reach $60 per barrel by the end of this year, despite geopolitical tension.

CNBC.com
Sept. 28, 2017

______

Exxon's big bet on Brazil oil could signal major pre-salt role

Alexandra Alper, Ernest Scheyder, Reuters
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Slideshow (PDF) fra John Kemp

Sept. 29, 2017

______

U.S. shale hinders hopes for oil market rebalancing: Reuters poll

Karen Rodrigues, Sethuraman N R, Reuters
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Dette får vi håpe får gjennomslag.

Investors push U.S. shale firms to separate executive pay from drilling

Ernest Scheyder, Reuters
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Can OPEC Control The Oil Bulls?

Tom Kool, Oilprice.com
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Ny frcking-teknologi som kan "ta av med et smell"?

Startup Aims To Advance Rocket Fuel Technology for Fracturing

Stephen Whitfield, Senior Staff Writer JPT
Sept. 26, 2017

______

U.S. crude exports to Asia may shake up global oil pricing

Clyde Russell, Reuters
Sept. 26, 2017

______



IEA's tall for flytende lager er nå nede på 5-års snittet.
______

South Korea Looks For New Oil Supplier in Canada

Tsvetana Paraskova, Oilprice.com
Sept. 27, 2017


Endret 30.09.2017 14:39 av OldNick
OldNick
30.09.2017 15:03
#19556

Torbjørn Kjus: Dette har gitt oljeprisen et løft

Oljeprisen faller noe tilbake etter den seneste tids oppgang.

Marianne L. Skarsgård, Hegnar.no
27.09.2017

______

U.S. data show petroleum supply and consumer demand dropped

U.S. crude oil exports hit a record recently, but industry data show U.S. crude oil production also declined.

Daniel J. Graeber, UPI
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Russia: Sept crude #oil production to average 10.9m b/d. Interfax.

OPEC: Reuters survery, sept. crude oil production 32.86m b/d, +50k b/d, m/m. cuts compliance 86%, -3% m/m.
______

Middle East oil producers turn to crude trading to boost incomes

- Saudi Aramco unit to trade non-Saudi crude
- Iraq creates trading venture with Russian firm
- Kuwait and Abu Dhabi study trading operations

Rania El Gamal, Reuters
Sept. 29, 2017

______

EIA's månedlige produksjonsrapport

EIA-914 for July showed US oil prod. rising 141k b/d to 9.24m b/d. Gap to weekly est. reduced to 192k from 242k in June





______

Saudi Arabia Is Ceding Oil Market Share To Support Prices And That's Good For U.S. Oil Plays

Jim Collins, Forbes.com
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Commodities - Crude Oil Prices Remain Supported Near Multi-Month Highs

Investing.com
Sept. 19, 2017

______

U.S. Second Largest Oil Field Production Falls As Decline Rates Rise

SRSRoccoreport
Sept. 29, 2017

______

Socialism: Venezuela Could Soon Run Out of Gasoline Despite World's Largest Oil Reserves

Ben Kew, Breitbart
Sept. 29, 2017

The oil-rich nation of Venezuela could soon run out of gasoline due to a chronic lack of production and a failure to pay shipping costs for imports, according to an industry leader.
Iván Freites, a representative of the Movement for Technical and Oil Workers, said in a press conference that the country could soon run out of gasoline because the government is refusing to pay the necessary shipping cost in order to refine their oil.

"There is only one more day's worth of gas and two and a half days worth of diesel," Freites said. "At the Cardon refinery, ships have been stationary since June because they do not pay the shipping costs."

Freites added that Venezuela now imports just 150 barrels of gasoline a day, given that major refinery plants are running below capacity or not at all due to soaring production costs. As a result of this lack of production, Venezuela's state oil company has already lost $5 billion worth of oil exports.

mer på link

Endret 30.09.2017 15:03 av OldNick
Beins
30.09.2017 16:50
#11207

Jeg så i tabellen at Mexicogolfen sto for nesten hele veksten i amerikansk oljeproduksjon fra juni til juli. Det er noe som ikke vil fortsette.

Så blir det opp til shale om vi får den projiserte vektsen til EIA.
olejoerg
30.09.2017 17:44
#5126

Ja, nesten all projisert vekst i årene som kommer er innen shale i USA, oljeskifer i Canada og offshore i Brasil.

Hvis en av disse skuffer så blir det store konsekvenser.

Shale kommer til å skuffe, man begynner etter hvert å slite på en del områder som vil vanskeliggjøre vekst. Noen eksempler:

1. Mindre produksjon fra nye brønner p.g.a effekten av fortetting. Dette påvirker også eksisterende brønner.
2. Høyere gassandel, sannsynligvis av samme grunn som ovennevnte.
3. Høyere kostnader på tjenester innen oljeservice.
4. Investorene i USA begynner å kreve at det fokuseres på return til investorer og at incentivene for lederne i E&P selskapene reflekterer dette fokus. Det har hittil vært sånn at toppledelsen i selskapene premieres med bonuser basert på produksjonsvekst og ikke inntjening. Dette ønsker mange investorer å endre slik at man premierer økonomiske resultater i stedet.
5. Til slutt det store spørsmålet, finner man nye sweet-spots som kan erstatte de man nå har drillet aggressivt på? Hvis ikke det skjer i stort nok omfang blir kampen for å øke produksjonen veldig vanskelig.
OldNick
01.10.2017 12:15
#19563

Oil's September Surge Propels Bull Market Run on Demand Optimism

- IEA, OPEC this month boosted global consumption forecasts
- Turkey threatens Kurdish exports after independence vote

Meenal Vamburkar, Bloomberg
29.09.2017

______

Å bruke "oljevåpenet", hva kan det bety nå?

Er det å bryte avtalen som ble inngått for 2 år siden?

Sammen med ny produksjonsøkning for å tvinge oljeprisen og dermed Iran's eksportinntekter ned igjen?

Vel, samarbeid med S.Arabia kan vel bli litt vanskeligere denne gangen?

Landet har ikke mer en ca. 0.5m f/d ledig kapasitet, sammen med at landet trenger mer inntekter kjapt, og det får de lettest ved å fortsette kuttavtalen med Russland, heller enn å øke produksjonen litt til.

Snart er decline i de gamle feltene så betydelig at markedet vil rebalansere uten påtvunge kutt fra noen, og da vil prisene komme opp uavvendelig.

Ryan Zinke hints at using U.S. oil against Iran

John Siciliano, Washington Examiner
Sept. 29, 2017

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke called Iran a grave threat on Friday, saying the administration's energy dominance plan will help address the Mideast power's development of nuclear missiles economically by cutting the country's oil profits.

"I'm concerned about Iran. I'm concerned about their development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear capability," Zinke said at the Heritage Foundation.

"And Iran is a grave threat. And it is better to have options to address Iran economically and not just militarily," he said.

Zinke said U.S. "economic leverage" would work to "supplant every drop of crude that Iran produces ... and energy dominance is part of that."

The U.S. has become one of the largest producers of natural gas and crude oil in the world, which has made the country less dependent on oil from the Middle East. That leverage gives the U.S. the ability to begin exporting more oil to reduce the amount on the market from countries such as Iran. At the same time, President Trump is considering whether to pull out of an Obama administration deal with Iran that lifted sanctions on its oil exports as a concession for its promise to curtail its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Zinke is a former Navy SEAL commander and said he wants to use the nation's oil wealth to keep America's sons and daughters from going to war.

Zinke used the speech to lay out Trump's vision on energy, saying the nation stands at an energy "crossroads," where there are "two visions for our future in energy," he said.

"One side believes we should retreat into a fortress of regulation and red tape, where foreign nations take the lead as America drowns itself in process and procedure. This is not the vision of President Trump," Zinke remarked.

Zinke added that the nation's participation in the global energy market will work to protect "America's sovereignty and not surrender it."
______

Unstoppable Force Meeting Immovable Object Stumps Oil Market

- U.S. shale acts as a counter to OPEC output and surging demand
- APPEC oil conference ends with bullish outlook for 2018 prices

Javier Blas, Serene Cheong, Sharon Cho, Bloomberg
28.09.2017

______

Saudi GDP Shrinks for Second Quarter in a Row Amid OPEC Cuts

- Kingdom's GDP falls 1.03% after shrinking 0.5% in 1st quarter
- Non-oil sector grows as government seeks to transform economy

Dana Khraiche, Alaa Shahine, Bloomberg
30.09.2017

Endret 01.10.2017 12:20 av OldNick
OldNick
01.10.2017 12:48
#19565

Interessant historie om hva som (muligens) foregår inne i "the House of Saud".

Wheels and deals: trouble brewing in the House of Saud

Saudi women being allowed to drive is a smokescreen - Salafi-jihadism is alive and well inside the Kingdom. What's more, another coup may be along shortly


Pepe Escobar, Asia Times
Sept. 29, 2017

Suddenly, the ideological matrix of all strands of Salafi-jihadism is being hailed by the West as a model of progress - because Saudi women will finally be allowed to drive. Only next year. Only some women. And still subject to many restrictions.

What's certain is that the timing of the announcement - which comes after years of liberal American pressure - was calculated with precision, arriving only a few days before House of Saud capo King Salman drops in for a chat at Trump's White House. The soft power move was coordinated by the 32-year-old Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, a.k.a. MBS, the Destroyer of Yemen; the king merely added his signature.

The diversionary tactic masks serious trouble in the court. A Gulf business source with intimate knowledge of the House of Saud, having held a number of personal meetings with members, told Asia Times that "the Fahd, Nayef, and Abdullah families, the descendants of King Abdulaziz al Saud and his wife Hassa bin Ahmed al-Sudairi, are forming an alliance against the ascendancy to the Kingship of the Crown Prince."

No wonder, considering that the ousted Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef - highly regarded in the Beltway, especially Langley - is under house arrest. His massive web of agents at the Interior Ministry has largely been "relieved of their authority". The new Interior Minister is Abdulaziz bin Saud bin Nayef, 34, the eldest son of the governor of the country's largely Shi'ite Eastern Province, where all the oil is. Curiously, the father is now reporting to his son. MBS is surrounded by inexperienced thirty-something princes, and alienating just about everyone else.

Former King Abdulaziz set up his Saudi succession based on the seniority of his sons; in theory, if each one lived to the same age all would have a shot at the throne, thus avoiding the bloodletting historically common in Arabian clans over lines of succession.

Now, says the source, "a bloodbath is predicted to be imminent." Especially because "the CIA is outraged that the compromise worked out in April, 2014 has been abrogated wherein the greatest anti-terrorist factor in the Middle East, Mohammed bin Nayef, was arrested." That may prompt "vigorous action taken against MBS possibly in early October." And it might even coincide with the Salman-Trump get together.

mer på link
______

Why The U.S. Exports Oil

Robert Rapier, Forbes
Sept. 30, 2017

______

Shell's new energies unit invests in innovation for the energy transition

Courtney Goldsmith
Sept. 28, 2017

______

UAE to cut oil exports further in November

Jerusha Sequeira, Argaam
Oct. 01, 2017

______

What Sanctions? Russian Oil Knocks Exxon Off Its Pedestal

Kenneth Rapoza, Forbes
Sept. 26, 2017


Endret 01.10.2017 12:49 av OldNick
Beins
03.10.2017 15:07
#11219

E24 - aksjelive:

Rapport: Amerikansk lettolje gjør det dårligere enn hva det ser ut som
en time siden Sindre Hopland

Ifølge en ny rapport fra Moodys er det kun høyere oljepriser som kan gjøre oljesektoren i Amerika sterkere, skriver Investing.com.
USAs skiferoljeindustri har gjort en god innsats når det kommer til kostnadsreduksjon og tiltak for høyere effektivitet, skriver Moodys, men nå er det ikke mer sektoren kan gjøre for å levere maksimal inntjening.
Moodys studerte 37 olje- og gasselskaper i USA og Canada og konkluderte med at oljeprisen på WTI-olje må holde seg over 50 dollar fatet for å tjene penger, og langt høyere for å se det de betegner som god inntjening.
blåball
04.10.2017 09:33
#3708

Fortsatt lav aktivitet innen rigg , supply , og seismikk på Verdensbasis .

Skiferolje i USA og Canada sliter med inntjening , og er i minus selv ved 50 Dollar WTI olje . ( Fokus til nå har vært volum , på bekostning av inntjening ) .

OPEC og 11 samarbeidende land fortsetter sine produksjons begrensninger , det vil fortsette , og senere en gradvis økning i produksjon .

Liten grunn for markert olje pris økning ennå , men oljelager blir stadig mindre , og etterspørsel er sterk .

Bull .

Endret 04.10.2017 09:46 av blåball
blåball
04.10.2017 09:44
#3709

Videre er det tendenser til att Big Oil selskaper som Statoil beveger seg vekk fra høykost oljefelt , og er gradvis inn i fornybar , det går seint , men Statoil med 200 milloner kroner i Solindustri i Brasil er en start .

Oljefelt i Brasil er alikevel prioritet for Statoil . ( Når ser en salg i skiferolje og oljesand ? )

Bull på oljepris , mot 60 dollar fatet ( Brent Olje ) .
blåball
04.10.2017 09:56
#3710

Høyere råvarekostnader for solcelleprodusenter og batteriprodusenter , kan gi en brems i markedet der , samtidig som LNG gass til motorer er i fremgang og diesel teknologi er markert bedre fremover .

28 % økt energiforbruk på Verdensbasis det neste tiårene .

Er fremdeles Bull for olje og gass .
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