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Oljepris VI
olejoerg
14.09.2017 13:10
#5116

teo

Djevelen ligger som vanlig i detaljene, det man skal bite seg merke i uttalelsene fra OPEC er dette: "Non-OPEC supply growth is slightly decelerating".

Det er ikke noe godt tegn for fremtidig supply da vi egentlig ikke skulle sett denne effekten riktig ennå da supplysituasjonen i dag reflekterer investeringene som var banket før oljeprisfallet. Med en ledetid som gjennomsnittlig ligger mellom 3 og 7 år innen segmentet er dette et varsel.
Dette betyr i realiteten at vi allerede nå begynner å se effekten av lavere investeringer post 2014 og denne trenden vil øke kraftig de neste 3-5 år. Når man gjør opp status i 2022-2023 og utover tipper jeg konklusjonen vil bli at non-OPEC de siste 4-5 år ikke bidro til økt supply og at OPEC måtte ta opp slakken. Spørsmålet er da selvfølgelig om de heller evner å gjør det fullt og helt i årene som kommer.
CandC
14.09.2017 19:12
#14

Her er det bare å like. Jeg kjøpte de første riggaksjene i sommer(Borr) og XOM denne uk. IEA har estimert verdens daglige oljekonsum til å passere 100 millioner fat i Q3 neste år.
teo
14.09.2017 20:29
#11507

olejoerg,

Det forandrer lite på realitetene. Som jeg skrev forventer IEA et lite lagertrekk på de globale oljelagrene det kommende år. Sannsynligvis er IEA litt konservative slik de ofte er.

I 2019 vil nok investeringsmangelen i ny kapasitet begynne å gi store utslag på supply/demand balansen. Men markedet er nok stadig for optimistisk. I januar spådde de fleste en stor underbalanse i andre halvår 2017. Nå er dette forskjøvet minst 1 år. Oljemarkedet er som en VLCC, det tar lang tid å vende kursen.
olejoerg
14.09.2017 22:08
#5119

Det vet ingen i dag, historisk sett har man aldri klart å forutse balansen mellom supply og demand i råvaremarkedet så nøyaktig at analysene i ettertid har vist seg å gi forutsigbarhet. Det har alltid vært sånn at man ikke har forutsett skiftet fra overproduksjon til undersupply og motsatt før en god stund etter at det har skjedd.

Jeg tror dette skyldes flere forhold i oljemarkedet som hverken IEA eller andre har oversikt over, nevner noen av de viktigste faktorene her:

1. Når det gjelder mange nasjoner er oljeproduksjonens fremtidige utvikling statshemmeligheter. Man kan derfor ikke stole på de ambisjoner disse kommuniserer, man kan derimot være helt sikker på at de ikke vil kommunisere eventuelle fremtidige produksjonsfall før dette har skjedd. Slikt kan skape uro i befolkningen, derfor vil man ofte også fornekte dette etter at det har skjedd.
2. Noe av det samme gjelder private oljeselskaper. Disse vil heller ikke offentliggjøre eventuelle analyser som konkluderer med produksjonsfall fremover før de absolutt må. Dette har med frykt for reaksjonen i aksjemarkedet å gjøre, lavere kurs øker risikoen for fiendtlige oppkjøp.
3. Den type mennesker som driver i E&P selskaper er av natur uforbederlige optimister, det må man være for å drive i en bransje med såpass risiko. Gitt at det også er rom for tolkning, håp og drømmer tror jeg ofte mange faktisk tror at de vil lykkes bedre fremover enn man virkelig gjør.

Etter min mening ser vi tegn til dette hver uke i USA nå. Innenlandsk produksjon stipuleres konsekvent høyere i de ukentlige rapportene enn det fasiten blir når justerte tall kommen noen måneder senere.

Det er for mange agendaer og særinteresser til at man får de korrekte data man trenger for å analysere fremtiden riktig. I tillegg er det som konsekvent omtales som en "glut" absolutt ikke som det fremstilles. Det høyeste tallet som har versert er ca 2 millioner fat, det er ca 2% overproduksjon. Det gir ikke mye rom for feil i analysene før resultatet blir noe helt annet enn analysen konkluderer med. Så lite overproduksjon er i et historisk perspektiv meget meget tight. På sent 80 tall var overproduksjonen potensielt 10 mill fat på et mye lavere forbruk enn i dag. Det er virkelig ikke mye slingringsmonn.

Endret 14.09.2017 22:19 av olejoerg
OldNick
18.09.2017 19:26
#19494

Forsinket pga. reise.

Data for the week ending Sep. 08, 2017

Estimater fra Platts, Reuters, WSJ:
Crude: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
Gasoline: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
Distillates: +x.x, +x.x, +x.x
______

API Sep. 12, 2017

Crude: +6.18 mb
Gasoline: -7.90 mb
Distillates: -1.81 mb
Cushing: +1.32 mb
______

EIA Sep. 13, 2017

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 08, 2017

EIA: Details of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 08, 2017
______

Crude: +5.90 mb
Gasoline: -8.40 mb
Distillate: -3.20 mb
Total petroleum: +1.7 mb
______

Stockpiles: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate, Total (mb)

06/23/2017: 509.2, 241.0, 152.3, 1352.2
06/30/2017: 502.9, 237.3, 150.4, 1338.8
07/07/2017: 495.4, 235.7, 153.6, 1334.9
07/14/2017: 490.6, 231.2, 151.4, 1324.7
07/21/2017: 483.4, 230.2, 149.6, 1315.3
07/28/2017: 481.9, 227.7, 149.4, 1316.4
08/04/2017: 475.4, 231.1, 147.7, 1311.8
08/11/2017: 466.5, 231.1, 148.4, 1304.5
08/18/2017: 463.2, 229.9, 148.4, 1304.5
08/25/2017: 457.8, 229.9, 149.2, 1303.4
09/01/2017: 462.4, 226.7, 147.8, 1310.4
09/08/2017: 468.2, 218.3, 144.6, 1312.2
______

Total products, gasoline and distillate supplied (4-week running average, mb/d, % y-o-y change)

06/23/2017: 19.9, -2.7%, 9.5, -2.4%
06/30/2017: 20.6, +0.5%, 9.6, -1.8%
07/07/2017: 20.7, +2.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/14/2017: 20.8, +2.1%, 9.7, -0.8%
07/21/2017: 21.2, +4.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/28/2017: 20.8, +1.4%, 9.8, +0.1%
08/04/2017: 21.2, +2.3%, 9.8, -0.1%
08/11/2017: 21.2, +2.0%, 9.7, -0.3%
08/18/2017: 21.0, +1.4%, 9.7, -0.4%, 4.2, +14.4%
08/25/2017: 21.2, +3.4%, 9.7, +0.2%, 4.2, +11.1%
09/01/2017: 20.8, +0.2%, 9.5, -1.0%, 4.1, +9.9%
09/08/2017: 20.4, -0.8%, 9.6, +0.2%, 4.0, +10.4%
______

Cushing Storage (mb, w-o-w)

06/23/2017: 60.8, -0.3
06/30/2017: 59.5, -1.3
07/07/2017: 57.6, -1.9
07/14/2017: 57.5, -0.1
07/21/2017: 55.8, -1.7
07/28/2017: 55.8, +0.0
08/04/2017: 56.4, +0.6
08/11/2017: 57.0, +0.6
08/18/2017: 56.5, -0.5
08/25/2017: 57.2, +0.7
09/01/2017: 58.0, +0.8
09/08/2017: 59.1, +1.1
______

Domestic crude production (mb/d Lower-48, Alaska, total, w-o-w total)

06/23/2017: 8.810, 0.440, 9.250, -0.100
06/30/2017: 8.915, 0.423, 9.338, +0.088
07/07/2017: 8.940, 0.457, 9.397, +0.059
07/14/2017: 8.970, 0.459, 9.429, +0.032
07/21/2017: 9.005, 0.405, 9.410, -0.019
07/28/2017: 9.030, 0.400, 9.430, +0.020
08/04/2017: 9.045, 0.378, 9.423, -0.007
08/11/2017: 9.070, 0.432, 9.502, +0.079
08/18/2017: 9.082, 0.446, 9.528, +0.026
08/25/2017: 9.070, 0.460, 9.530, +0.002
09/01/2017: 8.287, 0.494, 8.781, -0.749
09/08/2017: 8.869, 0.484, 9.353, +0.572
______

Crude Oil Input to Refineries (mb/d, w-o-w), refinery utilization (%)

06/23/2017: 16.890, -0.262, 92.5%
06/30/2017: 17.141, +0.251, 93.6%
07/07/2017: 17.244, +0.103, 94.5%
07/14/2017: 17.119, -0.125, 94.0%
07/21/2017: 17.285, +0.166, 94.3%
07/28/2017: 17.408, +0.123, 95.4%
08/04/2017: 17.574, +0.166, 96.3%
08/11/2017: 17.565, -0.009, 96.1%
08/18/2017: 17.461, -0.104, 95.4%
08/25/2017: 17.725, +0.264, 96.6%
09/01/2017: 14.472, -3.253, 79.7%
09/08/2017: 14.078, -0.394, 77.7%
______

Net Imports, Imports, Exports of Crude (mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w)

06/23/2017: 7.488, +0.129
06/30/2017: 6.974, -0.514
07/07/2017: 6.692, -0.282
07/14/2017: 7.268, +0.576
07/21/2017: 7.014, -0.254
07/28/2017: 7.551, +0.537
08/04/2017: 7.055, -0.496, 7.662, -0.491, 0.707, +0.005
08/11/2017: 7.249, +0.194, 8.126, +0.364, 0.877, +0.170
08/18/2017: 7.854, +0.605, 8.790, +0.664, 0.936, +0.059
08/25/2017: 7.003, -0.851, 7.905, -0.885, 0.902, -0.034

Endret 18.09.2017 19:26 av OldNick
OldNick
18.09.2017 19:27
#19495

09/01/2017: 6.930, -0.073, 7.083, -0.822, 0.153, -0.749
09/08/2017: 5.706, -1.224, 6.480, -0.603, 0.774, +0.621
______

Imports from OPEC, S.Arbia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Angola, Equador, Nigeria, Venezuela, Other OPEC, Sum OPEC (mb/d)

07/07/2017: 0.851, 0.428, 0, 0.251, 0, 0.159, 0.046, 0.081, 0.823, 0, 2.693
07/14/2017: 0.524, 0.493, 0, 0.556, 0, 0.019, 0.176, 0.241, 0.624, 0, 2.633
07/21/2017: 0.932, 0.823, 0, 0.056, 0, 0.275, 0.143, 0.319, 0.669, 0, 3.217
07/28/2017: 1.174, 1.096, 0, 0.000, 0, 0.200, 0.235, 0.093, 0.820, 0, 3.618
08/04/2017: 0.554, 0.524, 0, 0.191, 0, 0.334, 0.109, 0.586, 0.507, 0, 2.805
08/11/2017: 0.813, 0.716, 0, 0.226, 0, 0.390, 0.145, 0.214, 0.648, 0, 3.152
08/18/2017: 0.987, 0.685, 0, 0.066, 0, 0.192, 0.256, 0.400, 0.987, 0, 3.530
08/25/2017: 0.785, 0.458, 0, 0.012, 0, 0.116, 0.244, 0.072, 0.572, 0, 2.259
09/01/2017: 0.719, 0.240, 0, 0.116, 0, 0.214, 0.159, 0.469, 0.510, 0, 2.427
09/08/2017: 0.663, 0.424, 0, 0.108, 0, 0.066, 0.112, 0.436, 0.640, 0, 2.449
______

Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products (mb/d, w-o-w)

06/23/2017: 4.233, -1.012
06/30/2017: 4.917, +0.684
07/07/2017: 3.701, -1.116
07/14/2017: 4.435, +0.634
07/21/2017: 4.588, +0.153
07/28/2017: 5.000, +0.412
08/04/2017: 5.478, +0.478
08/11/2017: 4.633, -0.845
08/18/2017: 5.323, +0.690
08/25/2017: 5.085, -0.238
09/01/2017: 6.733, +1.648
09/08/2017: 4.698, -2.035
______

Råolje- (+5.9m fat) og totale petroleums-lagre (+1.7m fat) steg, mens bensin- (-8.4m fat) og destillat-lagrene (-3.2m fat) falt. Cushing-lagrene (+1.1m fat) steg forrige uke. OK overenstemmelse mellom API og EIA's tall denne gangen.

Økningen i rå-olje lagre er ikke helt enkel å forklare, siden summen av netto-import, uttak fra SPR og råolje-produksjon falt mer enn hva inntaket til raffineriene falt. Det synes nok også EIA, som endret justeringsfaktoren kraftig også for forrige uke for å få regnestykkene til å gå opp. 0.3m fat levert fra SPR-lager forrige uke (og ikke 5.3m fat, som en melding jeg la inn for noen dager siden stadfestet).

Produktlagrene sank betydelig denne uken, et resultat av "Harvey". Raffineriene leverte betydelig mindre produkter, leveransene til markedet sank litt samtidig med at nettoeksporten ut av USA også steg igjen. Oppsummert så var sum av rå-olje, bensin og destillat-lagrene ned med -7.3m fat ift. uken før (inkludert SPR).

EIA's produksjonsestimat var forrige uke opp (+572k f/d). "Lower-48" falt (+572k f/d) mens Alaska falt (-10k f/d).

Forrige uke var etterspørselen etter totale petr.produkter litt ned, mens bensin var betydelig opp. 4 ukers snitt y-o-y er negativt for totale petr.produkter, mens den er positivt for bensin og destillater.

Forrige uke var råolje-importen fra OPEC nesten uendret fra uken før, +0.02m f/d (til 2.4m f/d summert). Dataene er gitt i tabellen over. Importen fra "non-OPEC" var litt ned (pga. Colombia).

Import av ukjent opprinnelse var betydelig ned forrige uke.

Det er ikke lett å karakterisere rapporten. Ødeleggelse fra orkanen "Harvey" fortsatte å dominere nyhetene. Spread'en mellom Brent og WTI har fortsatt å stige noe (ca. US$5.7 i øyeblikket).







Produksjons-chart, oppdatert med EIA's ukes-tall og STEO's siste forecast for neste år.

______

BMO: Crude and Refined Petroleum Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Once in a Lifetime Opportunity to Profit in Commodities

Endret 18.09.2017 19:47 av OldNick
OldNick
18.09.2017 19:27
#19496

EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for week ending Sept. 08, 2017

Sept. 14, 2017

Totalt US-lager: 3 311Bscf
Endring w-o-w: +91Bscf






______

BMO: US Natural Gas Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Fredagens nord-Amerikanske riggstatistikk fra Baker Hughes

Nord-American Rotary Rig Count Summary, Sep. 15, 2017 (PDF)

I fredagens rapport fra Baker Hughes steg antall rigger i nord-Amerika med +2 enheter i uke 37-2017, av disse falt antallet med -8 enheter i USA og steg med +10 enheter i Canada.

I USA falt antall landrigger med -10 enheter, mens antall offshore-rigger steg med +1 enhet.

I USA falt antall oljerigger med -7 enheter, mens antall gassrigger falt med -1. Antall horisontale rigger steg med +2 enheter, mens antall vertikale rigger falt med -8. Antall oljerigger i USA er nå 749 enheter, mens antall gassrigger er 186. Antall landrigger er 915 enheter, mens antall rigger offshore er 17 i USA.

I Canada steg antall oljerigger med +10 enheter, mens antall gassrigger var uendret. Antall rigger offshore er 1.

Av stater i USA utmerket Louisiana og Texas seg med en endring på -3 rigger hver respektive. For de andre var det ingen eller (+/-) 1 rigg endring. Av felt i USA falt Permian, Eagle Ford og Bakken med -2, -2 og -1 rigg hver.
______

BMO: Rotary Rig Count charts per 15Sep2017 (PDF)

Endret 18.09.2017 19:27 av OldNick
Beins
20.09.2017 17:04
#11173

Brent-prisen over 56 USd per fat. Det er ei sterk utvikling som setter Barclays til veggs og som er mer i tråd med Kjus og Omdal.
Stadig flere analytikere blir positive til oljerelaterte aksjer, men det gjelder å være selektiv.

Endret 20.09.2017 17:04 av Beins
OldNick
20.09.2017 21:38
#19502

Data for the week ending Sep. 15, 2017

Estimater fra Platts, Reuters, WSJ:
Crude: +x.x, +2.9, +x.x
Gasoline: +x.x, -2.0, +x.x
Distillates: +x.x, -1.2, +x.x
______

API Sep. 19, 2017

Crude: +1.44 mb
Gasoline: -5.06 mb
Distillates: -6.13 mb
Cushing: +0.42 mb
______

EIA Sep. 20, 2017

EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 15, 2017

EIA: Details of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending Sep. 15, 2017
______

Crude: +4.60 mb
Gasoline: -2.10 mb
Distillate: -5.70 mb
Total petroleum: -6.6 mb
______

Stockpiles: Crude, Gasoline, Distillate, Total (mb)

06/30/2017: 502.9, 237.3, 150.4, 1338.8
07/07/2017: 495.4, 235.7, 153.6, 1334.9
07/14/2017: 490.6, 231.2, 151.4, 1324.7
07/21/2017: 483.4, 230.2, 149.6, 1315.3
07/28/2017: 481.9, 227.7, 149.4, 1316.4
08/04/2017: 475.4, 231.1, 147.7, 1311.8
08/11/2017: 466.5, 231.1, 148.4, 1304.5
08/18/2017: 463.2, 229.9, 148.4, 1304.5
08/25/2017: 457.8, 229.9, 149.2, 1303.4
09/01/2017: 462.4, 226.7, 147.8, 1310.4
09/08/2017: 468.2, 218.3, 144.6, 1312.2
09/15/2017: 472.8, 216.2, 138.9, 1305.6
______

Total products, gasoline and distillate supplied (4-week running average, mb/d, % y-o-y change)

06/30/2017: 20.6, +0.5%, 9.6, -1.8%
07/07/2017: 20.7, +2.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/14/2017: 20.8, +2.1%, 9.7, -0.8%
07/21/2017: 21.2, +4.8%, 9.7, -0.3%
07/28/2017: 20.8, +1.4%, 9.8, +0.1%
08/04/2017: 21.2, +2.3%, 9.8, -0.1%
08/11/2017: 21.2, +2.0%, 9.7, -0.3%
08/18/2017: 21.0, +1.4%, 9.7, -0.4%, 4.2, +14.4%
08/25/2017: 21.2, +3.4%, 9.7, +0.2%, 4.2, +11.1%
09/01/2017: 20.8, +0.2%, 9.5, -1.0%, 4.1, +9.9%
09/08/2017: 20.4, -0.8%, 9.6, +0.2%, 4.0, +10.4%
09/15/2017: 20.4, +0.5%, 9.5, -0.2%, 4.1, +14.5%
______

Cushing Storage (mb, w-o-w)

06/30/2017: 59.5, -1.3
07/07/2017: 57.6, -1.9
07/14/2017: 57.5, -0.1
07/21/2017: 55.8, -1.7
07/28/2017: 55.8, +0.0
08/04/2017: 56.4, +0.6
08/11/2017: 57.0, +0.6
08/18/2017: 56.5, -0.5
08/25/2017: 57.2, +0.7
09/01/2017: 58.0, +0.8
09/08/2017: 59.1, +1.1
09/15/2017: 59.8, +0.7
______

Domestic crude production (mb/d Lower-48, Alaska, total, w-o-w total)

06/30/2017: 8.915, 0.423, 9.338, +0.088
07/07/2017: 8.940, 0.457, 9.397, +0.059
07/14/2017: 8.970, 0.459, 9.429, +0.032
07/21/2017: 9.005, 0.405, 9.410, -0.019
07/28/2017: 9.030, 0.400, 9.430, +0.020
08/04/2017: 9.045, 0.378, 9.423, -0.007
08/11/2017: 9.070, 0.432, 9.502, +0.079
08/18/2017: 9.082, 0.446, 9.528, +0.026
08/25/2017: 9.070, 0.460, 9.530, +0.002
09/01/2017: 8.287, 0.494, 8.781, -0.749
09/08/2017: 8.869, 0.484, 9.353, +0.572
09/15/2017: 9.048, 0.462, 9.510, +0.157
______

Crude Oil Input to Refineries (mb/d, w-o-w), refinery utilization (%)

06/30/2017: 17.141, +0.251, 93.6%
07/07/2017: 17.244, +0.103, 94.5%
07/14/2017: 17.119, -0.125, 94.0%
07/21/2017: 17.285, +0.166, 94.3%
07/28/2017: 17.408, +0.123, 95.4%
08/04/2017: 17.574, +0.166, 96.3%
08/11/2017: 17.565, -0.009, 96.1%
08/18/2017: 17.461, -0.104, 95.4%
08/25/2017: 17.725, +0.264, 96.6%
09/01/2017: 14.472, -3.253, 79.7%
09/08/2017: 14.078, -0.394, 77.7%
09/15/2017: 15.172, +1.094, 83.2%
______

Net Imports, Imports, Exports of Crude (mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w, mb/d, w-o-w)

06/30/2017: 6.974, -0.514
07/07/2017: 6.692, -0.282
07/14/2017: 7.268, +0.576
07/21/2017: 7.014, -0.254
07/28/2017: 7.551, +0.537
08/04/2017: 7.055, -0.496, 7.662, -0.491, 0.707, +0.005
08/11/2017: 7.249, +0.194, 8.126, +0.364, 0.877, +0.170
08/18/2017: 7.854, +0.605, 8.790, +0.664, 0.936, +0.059
08/25/2017: 7.003, -0.851, 7.905, -0.885, 0.902, -0.034
09/01/2017: 6.930, -0.073, 7.083, -0.822, 0.153, -0.749

Endret 20.09.2017 21:42 av OldNick
OldNick
20.09.2017 21:40
#19503

09/08/2017: 5.706, -1.224, 6.480, -0.603, 0.774, +0.621
09/15/2017: 6.440, +0.734, 7.368, +0.886, 0.928, +0.154
______

Imports from OPEC, S.Arbia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Angola, Equador, Nigeria, Venezuela, Other OPEC, Sum OPEC (mb/d)

07/07/2017: 0.851, 0.428, 0, 0.251, 0, 0.159, 0.046, 0.081, 0.823, 0, 2.693
07/14/2017: 0.524, 0.493, 0, 0.556, 0, 0.019, 0.176, 0.241, 0.624, 0, 2.633
07/21/2017: 0.932, 0.823, 0, 0.056, 0, 0.275, 0.143, 0.319, 0.669, 0, 3.217
07/28/2017: 1.174, 1.096, 0, 0.000, 0, 0.200, 0.235, 0.093, 0.820, 0, 3.618
08/04/2017: 0.554, 0.524, 0, 0.191, 0, 0.334, 0.109, 0.586, 0.507, 0, 2.805
08/11/2017: 0.813, 0.716, 0, 0.226, 0, 0.390, 0.145, 0.214, 0.648, 0, 3.152
08/18/2017: 0.987, 0.685, 0, 0.066, 0, 0.192, 0.256, 0.400, 0.987, 0, 3.530
08/25/2017: 0.785, 0.458, 0, 0.012, 0, 0.116, 0.244, 0.072, 0.572, 0, 2.259
09/01/2017: 0.719, 0.240, 0, 0.116, 0, 0.214, 0.159, 0.469, 0.510, 0, 2.427
09/08/2017: 0.663, 0.424, 0, 0.108, 0, 0.066, 0.112, 0.436, 0.640, 0, 2.449
09/15/2017: 0.758, 0.400, 0, 0.072, 0, 0.309, 0.350, 0.389, 0.442, 0, 2.720
______

Net Imports of Crude and Petroleum Products (mb/d, w-o-w)

06/30/2017: 4.917, +0.684
07/07/2017: 3.701, -1.116
07/14/2017: 4.435, +0.634
07/21/2017: 4.588, +0.153
07/28/2017: 5.000, +0.412
08/04/2017: 5.478, +0.478
08/11/2017: 4.633, -0.845
08/18/2017: 5.323, +0.690
08/25/2017: 5.085, -0.238
09/01/2017: 6.733, +1.648
09/08/2017: 4.698, -2.035
09/15/2017: 4.005, -0.693
______

Råolje-lagrene (+4.6m fat) steg, mens bensin- (-2.1m fat), destillat- (-5.7m fat) og totale petroleums-lagre (+6.6m) falt. Cushing-lagrene (+0.7m fat) steg forrige uke. OK overenstemmelse mellom API og EIA's tall denne gangen.

Økningen i rå-olje lagre skyldes at summen av økt netto-import og innelandsk produksjon, sammen med økt uttrekk fra SPR var høyere enn hva inntaket til raffineriene økte. 1.6m fat levert fra SPR-lager forrige uke.

Produktlagrene sank betydelig også denne uken, fortsatt et resultat av "Harvey". Raffineriene leverte mer produkter enn uken før, men netto-eksporten økte mer, samtidig som leveransene til markedet også økte betydelig. Oppsummert så var sum av rå-olje, bensin og destillat-lagrene ned med -4.8m fat ift. uken før (inkludert SPR).

EIA's produksjonsestimat var forrige uke opp (+157k f/d). "Lower-48" steg (+179k f/d) mens Alaska falt (-22k f/d).

Forrige uke var etterspørselen etter totale petr.produkter betydelig opp, mens bensin var litt ned. 4 ukers snitt y-o-y er positiv for totale petr.produkter og destillater, mens den er negativ for bensin.

Forrige uke var råolje-importen fra OPEC opp fra uken før, +0.27m f/d (til 2.7m f/d summert). Dataene er gitt i tabellen over. Importen fra "non-OPEC" var litt ned (pga. Canada).

Import av ukjent opprinnelse var betydelig opp forrige uke.

Det er fortsatt ikke lett å karakterisere rapporten. Orkanen "Harvey" hindret en lang rekke tankskip fra å losse, og fortsatt må det være mange som ikke har fått losset (ihvertfall ikke kommet inn i EIA's statistikk), og jeg venter fortsatt økte lagertall i EIA's ukesrapporter. Spread'en mellom Brent og WTI er fortsatt høy (ca. US$5.5 i øyeblikket).

Markedet sendte dog oljeprisene opp, og WTI spot er nå over $50, og Brent over $56. Begge nærmer seg tekniske motstandsnivåer.







______

BMO: Crude and Refined Petroleum Storage Charts (PDF)

Endret 20.09.2017 21:42 av OldNick
OldNick
20.09.2017 21:43
#19504

IEA Sees Risk of Volatile Oil Prices on Weak Upstream Investment

- Lag in investment raises risk of tightened market: Atkinson
- IEA failed to foresee 'technical ingenuity' of U.S. shale


Vivian Nereim, Bloomberg
17.09.2017

A dearth of new investment in oil production is stoking a risk of tighter crude supply and unstable prices, even as demand growth is expected to slow over the next five years, according to a senior International Energy Agency official.

The worldwide cushion of spare production capacity will shrink without further investment in exploration and output, Neil Atkinson, the head of the IEA's oil markets and industry division, said at a conference in Manama, Bahrain.

"There are still not enough signs of investment beginning to return, and that raises the risk of tightening of the market in the next five years and a risk to the stability of oil prices," he said Sunday. "There is at least a possibility of going back to the situation we had 10 years ago where oil prices were very, very high at a time when demand was growing."

The IEA, which advises most major economies on energy policy, increased its estimate for demand growth in 2017 by 1.7 percent, it said Wednesday in a report. Atkinson said the pace of growth will slow but possibly from a higher base than the agency thought a few months ago.

mer på link
______

EIA kom med sin Drilling Productivity Report mandag, hvor de forsøker å forecaste produksjonen i Oktober basert på bore-aktiviteten som foregår.

Fornuftig nok, så forecaster de reduksjon i E.Ford, mens de tror Permian og Niobrara vil vokse bra, fulgt av Anadarko og Bakken.

Sum vekst Oct vs. Sept.: +79k f/d

EIA: Drilling Productivity Report

18.09.2017

______

Den samme DPR-rapporten viste dog også at Sept. vil vise produksjonstap i skifer vs. Aug.


______

Ser ny oppgang for olje

SEBs årlige rapport om oljebransjen konkluderer med at alle ingredienser som har skapt vekstsykler i oljebransjen er til stede.

Marianne L. Skarsgård, hegnar.no
19.09.2017

______

Barclay's er bearish til oljeprisen fremover, hovedsakelig pga. forventninger til skifer-produksjonen og derav økning i lagrene igjen i 2018.





______

Mens analytikerne hos den australske banken ANZ er bullish, derimot.

De tror Brent skal holde $60 som snitt i 2018.
Dette pga. av lagertrekk, som illustrert i chartet under.


______

Iraq forteller at OPEC-medlemmer diskuterer om kutt-avtalen skal;

- Økes, og/eller
- Forlenges

Iraq Says OPEC Mulls Deeper, Longer Oil Cuts to End-2018

Anthony Dipaola, Bloomberg
19.09.2017

______

Men de ser ingen grunn til selv å binde seg nå til hva som skal skje etter Q1-2018 ang. avtale-forlengelse.

Iraq oil min says premature to decide on future of output deal

Rania El Gamal, Nawied Jabarkhyl, Reuters
Sept. 19, 2017


Endret 20.09.2017 21:45 av OldNick
blåball
21.09.2017 10:42
#3658

Beins .
Ja , en bør være selektiv , i valg av oljeaksjer , terminpriser er lave frem til år 2020 , dette passer OPEC godt , spotprisen er like høg , det gir fremdeles stort press på høykostprodusenter . ( Så dagens oppgang i riggmarkedet er preget av obligasjonseigere , spesielt i Seadrill . )

Bull på moderate oljepriser fremover , rundt 60 Dollar fatet på Brent Olje .
OldNick
21.09.2017 18:35
#19509

Flere ANZ-grafer.



OECD-lager, days-of-consumption (har toppet ut)




Industry cost curve.




Skifer-olje produksjon USA ut H1-2018
______

EIA: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for week ending Sept. 15, 2017

Sept. 21, 2017

Totalt US-lager: 3 408Bscf
Endring w-o-w: +97Bscf



Stocks were 136 Bcf less than last year at this time and 67 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,341 Bcf.




______

BMO: US Natural Gas Storage Charts (PDF)
______

Refiners on the Run

The Energy Report 09/19/17.

Phil Flynn, egen blog
Sept. 19, 2017

______

Tallene i overskriften og artikkelen er basert på BNEF-anslag (som er betydelig mer aggressive enn IEA og andre anslag).

What If Big Oil's Bet on Gas Is Wrong?

- Global gas-fired generation capacity to decline after 2031
- Energy giants plan shift from producing oil toward natural gas

Jack Farchy, Kelly Gilblom, Bloomberg
July 17, 2017

______

Oil Tarries Around $50 as Bearish U.S. Crude Supply Report Looms

- U.S. crude stockpiles seen rising for third straight week
- Iraq, others want additional 1 percent in supply curtailments

Jessica Summers, Bloomberg
19.09.2017

______

Backwardation's back, alright

Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects
Sept. 18, 2017


Utdrag:
As the entire Brent curve tilts towards backwardation, proof that the oil market is rebalancing is obvious. We estimate that the global overhang relative to the five-year average has now fallen below 200 mb, from a peak of 600 mb.

resten er betaltjeneste.
______

Industriens majors satser primært på NG fremover, og produsere LNG for shiping.

LNG growth to propel oil and gas industry's carbon emissions -WoodMac

- Carbon emissions for top 25 companies to grow by 17% by 2025
- LNG to be biggest driver of emissions growth, study says
- Around $45bln of projects at risk of not going ahead

Ron Bousso, Reuters
Sept. 20, 2017





______

Report: LNG Demand to Grow at Fastest Rate since 2011, Global Glut Shrinking

Matt Mandel, Energy Depth
Sept. 15, 2017




______



End of contango (diff. første - andre måneds Brent futures-pris)
______



EIA's long term global oil forecast

Endret 21.09.2017 18:50 av OldNick
OldNick
21.09.2017 18:57
#19510

Det er for tiden OECD-land som driver veksten i olje-etterspørselen, skal vi tro denne artikkelen.

Det er lave priser som endrer forbrukernes oppførsel, hvor de i stadig større antall kjøper bensin- (og diesel-) hungrige SUV'er.

Thirst for oil returns in wealthy nations

Crude crash reverses decade of oil conservation as consumers return to gas guzzlers


David Sheppard, Anjli Raval, FT.com in London
21.09.2017

A decade's worth of efforts to cut oil consumption in industrialised countries is at risk of being reversed, as low fuel prices boost demand and send motorists flocking back to larger gas-guzzling cars.

Figures from the International Energy Agency and other forecasters show OECD oil demand, which declined between 2005 and 2014, has been growing rapidly for the last three years after oil prices crashed from above $100 a barrel to about $55 today.

If the trend continues, roughly 62 per cent of the reduction in OECD oil consumption since 2008 will have been reversed by the end of next year, despite governments targeting fuel efficiency, alleviating air pollution and cutting reliance on foreign crude.

Robust oil use in the developed world, which for years had been expected to decline, just as emerging markets consume more, has cast uncertainty around when global demand will peak. Some energy companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, had warned this could happen as soon as next decade.

"This period of lower oil prices has slowed the energy transition, no doubt about it," said Cuneyt Kazokoglu, head of oil demand at energy consultancy FGE.

"If crude stays around today's [price] level the structural demand decline that everyone is expecting will be pushed further out."

The oil demand turn round has been marked. Oil use in the OECD peaked at 50.4m barrels a day in 2005 before falling by almost 10 per cent up to 2014 as higher prices crimped consumption.

Since then demand in these wealthier countries has expanded at an average annual pace of about 400,000 b/d, IEA data show, and it is forecast to reach 47.4m b/d next year. This is approaching a level seen a decade ago, before an oil spike to a record level near $150 a barrel led governments to prioritise fuel efficiency.

Michael Cohen, an energy analyst at Barclays in New York, said while demand was growing alongside a broader economic pick-up in North America and Europe, lower prices had played the biggest role in the shift by influencing consumer behaviour.

"The steady improvement we were seeing for a number of years in average vehicle fuel efficiency has largely stopped," Mr Cohen said.

"While not every motorist is buying a SUV (sport utility vehicle) they're certainly not choosing the super-efficient vehicles they may have picked when oil was above $100 a barrel."

While global emissions have flat lined, led by the US because of coal-to-gas switching, rising oil usage could pose a potential threat to this trend.

The rise of electric cars and hybrids, from Tesla's Model X to the Toyota Prius, have generated headlines for their potential to overhaul the relationship between motor cars and oil use. But many analysts say it is overshadowing today's reality.

FGE says that in the first half of 2017 for every new electric car that came on to the road in the US, Americans bought 60 new fuel-hungry SUVs. In China the ratio was 30 new SUVs to every electric car, and 25 in Europe.

In 2009 BP's then chief executive, Tony Hayward, forecast US gasoline demand would never again top the level seen the previous year before prices hit almost $150. But this August the US energy department estimated it had reached a new record of 9.9m b/d.

For oil producers and refiners, stronger demand has been a boon.

Total demand growth, which includes the more than 1m b/d of annual consumption increases seen from emerging markets, have helped the Opec oil cartel and allies such as Russia in their efforts
OldNick
21.09.2017 19:02
#19511

to tighten up oil supplies.

US shale output, which propelled the 2014 crash, again threatened to swamp the market in early 2017, but international crude prices have since stabilised above $50 a barrel - a move many analysts attribute to evidence of growing consumption.

Oil refineries, rushing to turn the crude glut into higher demand for fuels, have seen profit margins rise.

Some environmental groups say governments should have used the period of lower crude prices to introduce higher retail taxes at the pump to combat the negative effects of rising oil use.

Others are relatively sanguine, arguing that the rebound is likely just a blip given other longer term trends.

Charlie Kronick, senior campaigner at Greenpeace, said a push by big Asian consumers in China and India to ban petrol and diesel cars would do more than any western policy to "tilt the global marketplace in favour of electric vehicles".

"The real issue isn't what happens in 2018, but what happens in the decades after 2020," said Mr Kronick.

But for an energy industry still adapting to the end of the $100 oil era, some analysts warn they cannot be complacent or ignore the significant shift in OECD consumption and its implications today, including the eventual need for more supply.

"The problem with the oil market right now is that while it seems to want to trade the next decade's potential slowdown in demand, it is ignoring the fundamental reality that exists today," said London-based consultancy Energy Aspects.

"Investors remain transfixed by an as-yet unrealised energy revolution."
______

Oil Traders Empty Key Crude Storage Hub

- Companies said to be selling crude from Saldanha Bay in Africa
- Brent crude time-structure strengthens, encouraging sales

Rupert Rowling, Javier Blas, Bloomberg
20.09.2017


Utdrag:
Oil traders are emptying one of the world's largest crude storage facilities, located near the southernmost tip of Africa, as the physical market tightens amid booming demand and OPEC production cuts.

Total SA, Vitol Group and Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. are selling crude they hoarded in Saldanha Bay, South Africa, during the 2015-2016 glut when the market effectively paid traders to store oil, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named discussing private operations.

...

"The market is selling inventories from everywhere," Mercuria Chief Executive Officer Marco Dunand said in an interview in Geneva.

Although largely unknown outside the oil trading industry, Saldanha Bay is one of the world's largest crude storage facilities, with the capacity to hold 45 million barrels in just six gigantic, partially-buried concrete tanks. By comparison, Cushing, the better-known U.S. oil storage center in Oklahoma that serves as the pricing point for the West Texas Intermediate oil benchmark, can hold about 75 million barrels in more than 125 tanks.

mer på link
______

Begynner sentimentet mot Permina å endres?

The booming Permian Basin could reach its zenith early if oil stays cheap

Collin Eaton, Houston Chron./Bloomberg
Sept. 20, 2017

The West Texas drilling frenzy that sparked one of the biggest oil booms in U.S. history could fizzle out in just four years if crude prices stay too low to spur innovations needed to overcome the region's geological constraints.

For months, oil has gushed from newly drilled wells and pump jacks erected across the plains of the Permian Basin, a prolific shale play that has drawn billions of dollars of investment from major energy companies and speculators, and become the epicenter of the oil industry's recovery.

forts.

Endret 21.09.2017 19:02 av OldNick
olejoerg
21.09.2017 20:53
#5121

Omsider begynner vi å se at flere og flere begynner å stille kritiske spørsmål angående shale, hittil har det ikke virket som om praktiske og tekniske spørsmål har vært av interesse. Det har virket som ekspertene har vært økonomer som har trodd på evig vekst i stedet for fagfolk.

Den enkleste måten å se for seg shale forekomstene med dagens fortetting er å forestille seg en stor tank med olje. Så borer man stadig flere hull i tanken i ulike høyder og tapper fra denne. Slik øker man uttaket pr minutt, time og døgn uten å tenke så mye over det. Plutselig en dag så slutter det å renne fra de øverste hullene samtidig som det kommer mindre fra de lavere hullene også fordi trykket har sunket.
Dette bør ikke komme som en overraskelse for noen, det eneste som overrasker meg er at det ser ut som mange ikke har skjenket dette en tanke..
Stockamateur
22.09.2017 10:50
#12162

Brent møter kraftig motstand ved $56ish.
teo
22.09.2017 19:28
#11508

US shale oil and gas investors are on a 'road to ruin,' warns renowned short-seller Jim Chanos

Renowned short-seller Jim Chanos is betting against a number of U.S. shale oil and gas drillers.Chanos says Wall Street is overly focused on certain valuation metrics, which hide problems with the fundamental business model in the American oil patch. Jim Chanos' Kynikos Associates is betting against a number of U.S. shale oil and gas stocks, saying Wall Street analysis of the sector is deeply flawed.

Investors are taking for granted accounting methods that mask problems with the fundamental business model in the U.S. shale patch, Chanos warned during a speech Tuesday at CNBC's and Institutional Investor's Delivering Alpha conference. Their focus on certain metrics is causing them to overlook hidden threats that will leave drillers with skimpier returns than investors are anticipating, he said."In our view, people have been looking at this industry through the rose-colored glasses of Wall Street. And this is the inherent problem with the North American shale business," he said.

Chanos is not the first to sound the alarm about accounting and business practices in the sector. Analysts have long warned about drillers' persistent and unfulfilled promises to generate positive cash flow, especially as oil prices remain at less than half of their 2014 peak.

But Chanos' remarks add an influential voice to the chorus of skeptics. Chanos, who foresaw the spectacular downfall of disgraced energy titan Enron, is renowned for scrutinizing accounting methods and spotting trouble on the horizon. He has now set his sights on the U.S. shale oil and gas industry, which uses expensive drilling methods to extract oil and gas from rock formations. Frackers typically rely much more on debt than big, integrated oil companies like Exxon Mobil.

Chanos focused on Continental Resources during his presentation, but said Kynikos is not singling out the shale oil drilling pioneer. Kynikos has taken a short position against a number of frackers in addition to Continental Resources, he said. Notably, it has not bet against those in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, where producers can plumb oil at relatively low costs.
But Chanos' remarks add an influential voice to the chorus of skeptics. Chanos, who foresaw the spectacular downfall of disgraced energy titan Enron, is renowned for scrutinizing accounting methods and spotting trouble on the horizon. He has now set his sights on the U.S. shale oil and gas industry, which uses expensive drilling methods to extract oil and gas from rock formations. Frackers typically rely much more on debt than big, integrated oil companies like Exxon Mobil.

Chanos focused on Continental Resources during his presentation, but said Kynikos is not singling out the shale oil drilling pioneer. Kynikos has taken a short position against a number of frackers in addition to Continental Resources, he said. Notably, it has not bet against those in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico, where producers can plumb oil at relatively low costs.
As drilling activity picks up, so do service costs. Those expenses get capitalized, or spread out over the life of the asset, on income statements. That's where the problem lies, Chanos said. Many companies will simply never be able to generate enough cash to pull themselves out of the vicious cycle and deliver acceptable returns to investors.

Capitalizing expenses in other businesses can be acceptable, Chanos said, but it is a problem in the oil and gas industry because drillers have to constantly reinvest in new wells to replace cash flow from depleted ones. "The way to think about it is that unlike other businesses, your assets literally get burned up," he said.

Chanos also takes issues with drillers using the so-called full-cost accounting method, which allows them to capitalize costs whether or not exploration projects are successful. This is tied to reporting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortiz

Endret 22.09.2017 19:28 av teo
teo
22.09.2017 19:30
#11509

Chanos also takes issues with drillers using the so-called full-cost accounting method, which allows them to capitalize costs whether or not exploration projects are successful. This is tied to reporting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

EBITDA allows investors to compare profits from drillers' operations without accounting for the other expenses, essentially giving them a view into how their assets stack up against another fracker's wells. Reporting EBITDA is not unusual, but Chanos believes shale investors are too focused on it.

"A reliance on that EBITDA number for valuation metrics, which an awful lot of people on Wall Street still do, is going to be the road to ruin for lots of investors," he said. "This has attracted a lot of capital on the Street, in private equity and elsewhere, and we still think they're being mesmerized by a metric that is going to lead to problems for returns on capital in this industry."
OldNick
24.09.2017 16:43
#19514

Fredagens nord-Amerikanske riggstatistikk fra Baker Hughes

Nord-American Rotary Rig Count Summary, Sep. 22, 2017 (PDF)

I fredagens rapport fra Baker Hughes steg antall rigger i nord-Amerika med +7 enheter i uke 38-2017, av disse falt antallet med -1 enhet i USA og steg med +8 enheter i Canada.

I USA falt antall landrigger med -2 enheter, mens antall offshore-rigger steg med +2 enheter.

I USA falt antall oljerigger med -5 enheter, mens antall gassrigger steg med +4. Antall horisontale rigger falt med -4 enheter, mens antall vertikale rigger steg med +1. Antall oljerigger i USA er nå 744 enheter, mens antall gassrigger er 190. Antall landrigger er 913 enheter, mens antall rigger offshore er 19 i USA.

I Canada steg antall oljerigger med +10 enheter, mens antall gassrigger falt med -2 enheter. Antall rigger offshore er 1.

Av stater i USA utmerket Louisiana, Oklahoma, N.Dakota og Colorado seg med en endring på +3, -3, -3 og -2 rigger hver. For de andre var det ingen eller (+/-) 1 rigg endring. Av felt i USA steg Permian med +6 rigger, mens Eagle Ford og Bakken falt med -3 rigger hver.

Rapporten så ikke ut til å ha noen innvirkning på WTI spot.
______

BMO: Rotary Rig Count charts per 22Sep2017 (PDF)
______


______

Verden er short på raffineri-kapasitet, skal vi tro denne artikkelen.

Det er påvist nå når nesten 1/4-del av USA's kapasitet er ute etter orkanen "Harvey".

Stormy weather exposes shortcomings of world's oil refineries

Libby George, Ron Bousso, Reuters
Sept. 21, 2017


Brussels/London - Hurricane Harvey's crippling impact on U.S. oil refinery operations this month and the challenge buyers faced in filling the gap in gasoline supplies has exposed a shortage of spare refining capacity around the globe.

Nearly a quarter of U.S. refining capacity was knocked out by the storm this month, driving U.S. gasoline prices to two-year highs above $2 a gallon. Many plants are still struggling to resume normal operations, prompting other refineries around the world to crank up output to fill the gap.

Global refining is considered to be running at its maximum when capacity utilization is 85.5 percent, the highest level reached in the modern era, BP's head of refining economics Richard de Caux said.

Today the utilization level is 83 percent, he told the Platts Refining Summit in Brussels, suggesting a very slim buffer.

"The spare capacity is not really there," said Dario Scaffardi, general manager of Italian refiner Saras. "In as much as consumption worldwide is growing, refinery capacity is not long at all."

Spare capacity is needed to meet demand when refineries undergo maintenance or face unexpected outages. Too much in reserve is costly for refiners. But Hurricane Harvey has shown the world may not have enough.

Consultant JBC Energy said refiners could process 83 million bpd of crude by the end of 2017. In 2016, BP data showed processing at roughly 80.6 million bpd.

Energy consultancy FGE estimates spare global refining capacity, based on official or nameplate numbers, stands at 14 million bpd, down from 18 million bpd earlier this decade.

But nameplate figures can be misleading, as they are based on capacity of a refinery when built or refurbished. Many cannot match those levels due to years of underinvestment. So actual spare capacity may only be a fraction of that 14 million bpd.

forts.

Endret 24.09.2017 16:43 av OldNick
OldNick
24.09.2017 16:44
#19515

For example, Venezuela's four refineries have run at record lows this year as they lack spare parts. Plants in Mexico, Brazil and Nigeria have also suffered poor investment for years.

At the same time, demand for oil and its products is climbing, led by China and India, and more developed economies.

mer på link
______

Oil Market Balance in an Unbalanced World

Phil Flynn, The Energy Report
Sept. 22, 2017

______

Inneholder bl.a. et video-intervju med Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects.

US crude ticks up 11 cents, settling at $50.66 for third straight weekly gain

- A meeting of major oil producers ended without the group extending their deal to cut output
- U.S. drillers pulled 5 oil rigs from fields, putting the national total at 744
- Oil prices have gained more than 15 percent in the last three months

CNBC.com/Reuters
Sept. 22, 2017

______

OPEC og Russland kan utsette avgjørelsen om å forlenge kutt-avtalen til Jan.

De ser positivt på lagernedbyggingen så langt.

OPEC says winning battle to end oil glut

Alex Lawler, Shadia Nasralla
Sept. 22, 2017

______

No OPEC-Russia Deal Extension, But These Moves Suggest 'Orderly' 2018

Gillian Rich, Investors.com
Sept. 22, 2017

______

Nigeria er klar til å delta i OPEC's kutt-avtale når produksjonen når 1.8m f/d.

Nigeria ready to play OPEC ball, Russia says

Nigerian crude oil production in August was the highest it's been in two years.

Daniel J. Graeber, UPI.com
Sept. 22, 2017

______

JMMC reports highest ever conformity level

OPEC PR
Sept. 22, 2017

______

OPEC and Russia Hold Steady on Cuts as Oil Market Improves

- Talks in Vienna end without recommendation on cuts extension
- Oil prices have risen, but concerns remain about 2018 outlook

Grant Smith, Elena Mazneva, Angelina Rascouet, Bloomberg
22.09.2017

______

Rabah Arezki, IMF.

- Liquid etterspørsel vil toppe i ca. 2037.
- Kan skje 10 år tidligere dersom stater strammer til politikken.


______

Australske Macquarie Group Ltd. investeringsbank inntar 3'dje plassen globalt i trading-omsetning innenfor råvarer (etter MS og Citi), og skyver JPM og Goldman ned på 4 og 5-plass.

Exclusive: Macquarie leapfrogs Goldman to join top tier of commodity banks

Eric Onstad, Reuters
Sept. 21, 2017

______

OPEC, non-OPEC producers must work on longer-term oil strategy: Russia

Reuters Staff
Sept. 22, 2017

______

Refinery demand, not OPEC, is the key to keeping oil prices above $50 a barrel, analysts say

- Oil exporters meet in Vienna on Friday to discuss their agreement to cut output.
- Analysts say they are more focused on the demand outlook, which has grown stronger.
- Sustained high

Endret 24.09.2017 16:46 av OldNick
eshuse
25.09.2017 15:47
#2564

Høyeste oljepris på åtte måneder
Stockamateur
26.09.2017 13:33
#12164

Ja, noe overraskende skled Brent gjennom motstand ved $56. Bullish.
highlander
26.09.2017 14:23
#7487

Oljeprisen (Brent) nådde sitt høyeste nivå på over to år etter at den steg til USD 59 per fat. Etterspørselen i både de industrialiserte land og emerging markets ser nå ut til å øke samtidig som lagrene reduseres.

Samtidig medfører uavhengighetsavstemmingen i de kurdistanske områder viss uro der Tyrkias president Erdogan advarer at de kan komme til å stenge rørledningen som hovedsakelig eksporterer olje fra Kurdistan. Det antas at avstemmingen vil medføre et klart ja til uavhengighet noe myndighetene vil bruke som et mandat til å igangsette uavhengighetsforhandlinger med Irak. (Kilde: Financial Times/Xi)
OldNick
26.09.2017 15:29
#19529

BP tror USA's vekst i oljeproduksjon peaker mellom 2025 og -35.



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Bloomberg NEF:

- EV's vil ta mer enn 50% av bilmarkedet (enheter solgt/år) i ca. år 2038.
- Og det vil ta vekk 8m f/d olje-etterspørsel

How Electric Cars Can Create the Biggest Disruption Since the iPhone

- Combination of self-driving, on-demand tech could boost growth
- Big Oil may take a hit as people choose new ways to travel

Jess Shankleman, Hayley Warren, Bloomberg
22.09.2017







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Economist om Aramco, deres IPO-planer og fremtid.

Rise of the Aramcons

Behind the veil of Saudi Aramco

The biggest oil company has a good story to tell-if it can disentangle its image from that of the kingdom.

Economist
Sept. 21, 2017

______

Noe data og statistikk ang. USA

Oil Prices Plateau After OPEC Meeting

Tom Kool, Oilprice.com
Sept. 22, 2017

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HURRAY! Nigeria to enjoy 7-month unlimited crude sales

The Cable
Sept. 22, 2017

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Japan

Expect A Flurry Of Oil Deals In This Asian Nation

Dave Forest, Oilprice.com
Sept. 22, 2017

______

En kort gjennomgang av årsaken til at Rosneft har blitt Russland's største olje-selskap.

Why Russia's State-Owned Oil Company Always Wins: QuickTake Q&A

Jake Rudnitsky, Bloomberg
25.08.2017


Sidekommentar:
Historien om Evtushenkov, Sistema og Bashneft var en av årsakene til Skagen fondene's fall i 2013-2014, hvor de fikk flere slike smeller i aksjer de eide som nærmest kollapset.

Har tittet litt tilbake i Skagens rapporter, og høsten 2013 eide de ca. NOK 2 mrd. i Sistema-aksjer (i 3 fond). Høsten 2014, etterat Evtushenkov var satt i husarrest, skriver de at markedet har redusert prisingen av Sistema til under det som ville bli tapet om både Bashneft blir tatt tilbake, sammen med at alle utbyttebetalingene skulle bli beslaglagt.

To av fondene (Vekst & Global) solgte seg litt senere helt ut av selskapet, men det meste etterat skaden var skjedd. Kon-Tiki satt på en ikke-ubetydelig post (håpet på mirakler?) til i sommer. De solgte seg ut i juni - pga. stort søksmål mot Sistema fra Rosneft.
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Tungolje-produsenter nyter nå godt av en historisk lav spread mot lettolje-prising, pga. at OPEC og andre land har stengt ned/redusert produksjonen av disse kvalitetene.

Heavy Crude Production Hit Hard By OPEC Cuts

Oil & Gas 360
Sept. 23, 2017

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Oil hits highest since July 2015; producers say market rebalancing

Jessica Resnick-Ault, Reuters
Sept. 25, 2017

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Saudi finance minister tells bond investors Aramco IPO to go ahead in 2018

Reuters Staff
Sept. 25, 2017

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APPEC: Iraq may sue KRG over oil exports pending independence referendum: official

Platts
Sept. 25, 2017

Endret 26.09.2017 15:31 av OldNick
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