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KINA - En økonomisk kjempe
08:20 12.06.2006

Lang artikkel i NYTimes om forurensingen fra Kina's vanvittige kullforbruk, verdens strste (selvsagt)...

The Energy Challenge
Pollution From Chinese Coal Casts a Global Shadow

Published: June 11, 2006

Coal has given parts of China a Dickensian feel, with miners coated with black soot and air that is thick with pollution.

HANJING, China One of China's lesser-known exports is a dangerous brew of soot, toxic chemicals and climate-changing gases from the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants.

In early April, a dense cloud of pollutants over Northern China sailed to nearby Seoul, sweeping along dust and desert sand before wafting across the Pacific. An American satellite spotted the cloud as it crossed the West Coast.

Unless China finds a way to clean up its coal plants and the thousands of factories that burn coal, pollution will soar both at home and abroad. The increase in global-warming gases from China's coal use will probably exceed that for all industrialized countries combined over the next 25 years, surpassing by five times the reduction in such emissions that the Kyoto Protocol seeks.

The sulfur dioxide produced in coal combustion poses an immediate threat to the health of China's citizens, contributing to about 400,000 premature deaths a year. It also causes acid rain that poisons lakes, rivers, forests and crops.

The sulfur pollution is so pervasive as to have an extraordinary side effect that is helping the rest of the world, but only temporarily: It actually slows global warming. The tiny, airborne particles deflect the sun's hot rays back into space.

But the cooling effect from sulfur is short-lived. By contrast, the carbon dioxide emanating from Chinese coal plants will last for decades, with a cumulative warming effect that will eventually overwhelm the cooling from sulfur and deliver another large kick to global warming, climate scientists say. A warmer climate could lead to rising sea levels, the spread of tropical diseases in previously temperate climes, crop failures in some regions and the extinction of many plant and animal species, especially those in polar or alpine areas.

Coal is indeed China's double-edged sword the new economy's black gold and the fragile environment's dark cloud.

Already, China uses more coal than the United States, the European Union and Japan combined. And it has increased coal consumption 14 percent in each of the past two years in the broadest industrialization ever. Every week to 10 days, another coal-fired power plant opens somewhere in China that is big enough to serve all the households in Dallas or San Diego.

To make matters worse, India is right behind China in stepping up its construction of coal-fired power plants and has a population expected to outstrip China's by 2030.

Les mer her
08:54 12.06.2006

Et innlegg på Cnn forteller at at selveste Kina er blitt et forbruksland.
Bedre personøkonomi fører til et internt kjøpepress og valg av kvalitet.

Re det med kull så har jeg kjørt på den store kanalsystemet hvor 10 000 vis av elvebåter lastet med kull dominerte trafikkbildet.

Kinaforum, en flott info link og portal på norsk om Kina..

[Endret 12.06.06 09:02 av dammerud]
18:51 12.06.2006

Et resultat av sentralmyndighetenes forsøk på utjevning ?

China Begins Ambitious Rural Road Upgrading Program

2006-06-09, Xinhua

China has begun the implementation of an ambitious program that will see the building or upgrading of 1.2 million kilometers of rural highways before the end of 2010.

The country's top planning body, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said the central government would this year provide a subsidy of 17.5 billion yuan (2.2 billion U.S. dollars) for 28,008 rural roads totaling 119,200 kilometers.

These roads will cost a total of 45 billion yuan (5.6 billion dollars). They include 27,012 roads in east and central China and 996 in the west, the NDRC said on its website.

The upgrading of rural roads would help create favorable conditions for developing the rural economy, improving the living standards of rural residents and building the Socialist new countryside, said the NDRC.

The 11th five-year-plan adopted by the National People's Congress in March says all Chinese villages and townships will be accessible by highway by 2010.

Official statistics show that by the end of 2005, China had three million kilometers of rural roads, including 980,000 kilometers of sealed roads.

Currently 99.8 percent of China's townships and 94.3 percent of its villages are served by highways.

[Endret 12.06.06 18:53 av OldNick]
18:44 15.06.2006

Er Kina på vei mot en virkelig overoppheting ?

Med de vekstratene som nå vises, og en eventuelle avmating i deres viktigste markeder, så har de vel ikke innenlandsk konsum til å ta unna for produksjonskapasiteten ?

China Steps Up Efforts to Cool Investment Expansion (Update6)

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- China's government stepped up efforts to cool the world's fastest-growing major economy as a report showed investment in manufacturing and real estate unexpectedly accelerated.

Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said he'll curb money supply, a day after Premier Wen Jiabao told local governments and banks to limit lending. Urban investment in fixed assets jumped 30.3 percent in the first five months from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said today.

``The risks to the economy are from the investment boom turning to bust,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics in London. ``The best way to avoid a hard landing in 2007 or 2008 is to start deflating that investment bubble now.''

China is producing more manufactured goods than markets require, causing profits to slump in some industries and threatening to cause an abrupt slowdown in the economy, according to the World Bank. Growth averaged 9 percent in the past decade as companies including Ford Motor Co. and Baosteel Group Corp. built factories, straining supplies of raw materials and energy.

The central bank will ``step up open market operations,'' including selling more bills to banks, to adjust money in the financial system, Zhou said at a conference in Beijing today. On June 13, the People's Bank of China convened a meeting of the nation's commercial banks to enforce curbs on lending, the bank said on its Web site yesterday.

Les mer her
10:26 16.06.2006

Med 9,4 prosent i gjennomsnittlig årlig vekst i kinesisk økonomi de siste 25 årene, kan man glede seg over en nær ti-dobling av produksjonen i denne perioden.

Om lag en tredjedel av denne veksten skyldes bedre utnyttelse av gitte ressurser, såkalt TFP-vekst (for Total Factor Productivity). Resten av veksten skyldes økt tilgang på arbeidskraft og kapital.

Men veksten har ikke kommet gratis. Her er to kostnader som begge vekker dyp bekymring i det kinesiske lederskapet:

Inntektsfordeling er blitt så skjev at den truer stabiliteten i samfunnet
Forurensningen har fått et omfang som truer naturens bærekraft

04:47 17.06.2006

Shenhua, Kina's største kullgruveselskap, satser hard på CTL.

Shenhua Group Has 8 CTL Projects in Pipeline; Targeting 30M Tons per Year by 2020

16 June 2006

Shenhuas first direct coal liquefaction train is due to come online in 2007.

China Daily. Shenhua Group. Chinas biggest coal producer (and the third-largest in the world) is planning eight Coal-to-Liquids projects that will produce some 30 million tons per year (about 600,000 barrels per day) of synthetic oil and products by 2020.

The first three of the eight projects will have a total capacity of 4 million tons per year, and are due to be completed by 2010. The eight plants will be built in Shaanxi, and the autonomous regions of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang Uygur and Ningxia Hui. Shenhua is building both direct and indirect liquefaction projects.

The State-owned energy conglomerate is partnering with international companies, such as Royal Dutch Shell and Sasol on technology transfers.

We have almost finalized talks with South Africa and will possibly sign a deal with them sometime next week, Zhang [Yuzhuo] said, declining to give details of the accord.

China is forecasting that its oil consumption will increase to about 450 million tons (about 9 million barrels per day) by 2020with 6062% of that imported. Of that increase, China projects using 216 million tons of gasoline and diesel (about 4.7 million barrels per day) by 2020.

In 2005, China consumed 6.988 million barrels of oil per day, according to BPs Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
15:41 17.06.2006

Blikket blir nok flyttet hit og bort fra USA lagertall og annet.
20:42 17.06.2006

grong2 [742]
Sitter nå igjen på hotellet i en by like utenfor Shanghai - i dette landet som endres i rekord fart.
Foruresning og intektsfordeling er et par problem områder. Først nevnte kan hindre sist nevnte - og da kan et opprør komme fra bøndene (som en gang tidligere). Det er ikke noen overhengede fare, - men Mao kom vel til makten med et slikt opprør.

Det som skremmer mest og kan skape vansker, - er økning av privat biler (ikke frma og stats eide). Infrastrukturen kan slå sprekker allerede i 2007, - med økende trafikk av varer til eksport havner - og masse "ny rike" som skal vise sin status med egen bil. Det bygges veier med stor hastighet, - men ny bil salget er nok større !!!!
09:23 19.06.2006

Utmothavet - jeg skal straks til bl.a. Kina selv. Har du noen tips for særlige interessante ting å fokusere på der? Send gjerne en privat melding.

09:24 19.06.2006

Even if you've never been to India, eaten its food or watched its movies, there is a good chance you interact with it every day of your life.

That's because India -- the second most populous nation in the world, and projected to be by 2015 the most populous -- is itself being transformed. In the tradition of writers citing Asia's "tiger" economies and the Chinese "dragon," now comes the elephant.

Last year per capita income in India was $3,300; in China it was $6,800. Prosperity and progress haven't touched many of the nearly 650,000 villages where more than two-thirds of India's population lives.

Backbreaking, empty-stomach poverty, which China has been tackling successfully for decades, is still all too common in India. Education for women -- the key driver of China's rise to become the workshop of the world -- lags terribly in India.

The nation has more people with HIV/AIDS than any other in the world, but until recently the Indian government was in a disgraceful state of denial about the epidemic. Transportation networks and electrical grids, which are crucial to industrial development and job creation, are so dilapidated that it will take many years to modernize them.

Yet the litany of India's comparative shortcomings omits a fundamental truth: China started first. China's key economic reforms took shape in the late 1970s, India's not until the early 1990s.

But India is younger and freer than China. Many of its companies are already innovative world beaters. India is playing catch-up, for sure, but it has the skills, the people and the sort of hustle and dynamism that Americans respect, to do so. It deserves the new notice it has got in the U.S.

09:28 19.06.2006


Hva i fanden gjør du i China dersom du ser slike store vanskeligheter ?????
Da bør du holde deg med steinrøyse !
Var selv i China i 1967og 1975 da MAO var hersker , tror aldri det chinesiske folk ønsker seg tilbake til den tiden...

04:25 20.06.2006

cimg src=http://pub.tv2.no/multimedia/na/archive/00253/ol__nedtelling_253358c.jpg>

04:25 20.06.2006

16:35 30.06.2006

Kina sliter med å nå sine ambisiøse mål om å redusere energiintensiteten med 20% innen 2010.

Helt utrolig vekst i kull- og oljeforbruket fortsatt. Mye CO2 og annen forurensing dette.

China struggling to reduce energy consumption

June 30, 2006, english.people.com.cn (Source: Xinhua)

China will be struggling to meet targets for reducing energy consumption unless it takes serious measures to change its economic growth patterns,experts said.

While China's GDP growth continues at around 10 percent this year, the country is striving to reduce its energy consumption.

The aim is to reduce energy consumption by 20 percent for every 10,000yuan (1,250 US dollars) of GDP between 2006 and 2010.

However, considering the current economic situation, the goal of reducing energy consumption by four percent this year does not look like being reached easily unless China makes great changes in its macro-economic policy," said Zhou Dadi, Director General of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.

China saw sharp growth in energy consumption this year. According to statistics, in the first four months, China's coal consumption rose by 13.8 percent over the same period of last year, coke, 11 percent and electricity, 12.5 percent.

China produced 60.55 million tons of crude oil in the first four months with a year-on-year growth of 1.9 percent while its imports of crude oil rose by 17.3 percent to 49.15 million tons.

China's energy consumption is increasing due to two factors, said Zhou.

According to Zhou, the Chinese economy will continue its high-speed growth inherited from the five-year period from 2001 to 2005 and this will not cool down in the short term.

Heavy industrial sectors such as metallurgy, chemicals and building materials continue to grow rapidly. Investment is still hot and economic growth is still the index local governments place the most importance on, he said.

On the other hand, the goal of reducing energy consumption requires fundamental changes in China's energy consumption methods, he said.

China's energy problems cannot be solved independently and it is a matter of the macro economy of the country, said Tao Dong, economist with Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

It depends on changes in China's economic growth mode, said Zhou.

Five industrial sectors - iron and steel, chemicals, building materials, oil and coke refining and electricity and heat generation - use over half of the country's total energy consumption.

Experts agree that the first step should be pricing reform.

Les mer her
11:33 05.07.2006

Mer om bil salg statistikk i Kina, første halvår 2006.

GM: 453852 / 12.5% = ca. 3.6 mill. biler solgt Jan-Juni i år. Jepp, salget øker utrolig.

GM sales in China surge 47 per cent in first half; VW sales up 30 per cent

July 4, 2006 - 11:55


SHANGHAI (AP) - Despite its woes in the U.S. auto market, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) reports business in China is booming.

The world's largest automaker said Tuesday its sales in China during the first half of this year jumped 47 per cent over a year earlier, helped by stronger than expected demand.

GM and its joint ventures sold 453,832 vehicles in China in the January-June period, compared with 308,722 in the same period of 2005, the company stated.

GM claims a 12.5 per cent share of China's quickly growing auto market, up from 10.8 per cent a year earlier, making it the No. 1 foreign automaker in the country.

Last year, its sales in China surpassed those of longtime leader Volkswagen AG of Germany, which also reported strong sales growth in the first half.

Beset by declining profits and growing competition back home, General Motors has sought to cash in on a rebound in auto sales in China by rolling out new and upgraded models under several brand names.

Sales of the Buick Excelle sedan climbed 38.7 per cent year-on-year in the first half to 145,786 units, while sales of the Sail and other Chevrolet models surged 81.4 per cent to 75,710.

"We capitalized by rolling out a series of new and upgraded products under several brands to complement our existing lineup of vehicles," said Kevin Wale, president of GM China Group.

China reported that overall auto sales rose 30.8 per cent in the January-May period to 2.97 million units, while output rose 32 per cent to three million units.

That followed a 21 per cent increase in passenger car sales during 2005.

GM's flagship joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. Group saw sales rise 49 per cent in the first half to 201,901, while sales of its minivan and commercial joint venture, SAIC-GM-Wuling, climbed 45 per cent to 250,066, GM said.

Meanwhile, Volkswagen reported Tuesday that its sales in China jumped 30 per cent in the first half amid launches of several new models.

Volkswagen said it sold 345,375 units in China in the six-month period, including imports and Audi-branded vehicles.

VW was the first major foreign automaker to enter the China market in 1984 through a joint venture. Its sales fell about 15 per cent last year to 564,306, while GM sales climbed 35 per cent to 665,390.

Les mer her
12:47 20.07.2006

Har med egne øyne sett hvordan miljøet i Kina er tildels totalt ødelagt. Men myndighetene tar visse grep for å gjøre noe med det. Noen økonomer har anslått at Kinas vekst ville vært 4 prosentpoeng lavere om de hadde gjennomført alle "nødvendige miljøtiltak". Det sier i alle fall noe om skalaen på problemene...

China's Big Clean-Up Sparks Business Boom

JINSHAN, China (AP) -- China has budgeted some 1.3 trillion yuan (US$162 billion; euro127 billion) for environmental protection in 2006-2010. At the same time, its more than 600 big cities are belatedly tackling long-neglected sewage treatment and searching for ways to restore depleted aquifers and purify tainted rivers and lakes.

The country's 27-year-old economic boom has left its waterways and coastlines severely polluted by industrial and farm chemicals and domestic sewage. Its countryside is littered with garbage and construction waste, and its cities suffocated by smog.

Having long failed to enforce its own environmental safeguards, China lacks the expertise to clean up its own mess. Contracts for such work often go to foreign companies like Suez, which has a 50-year contract to provide water treatment and supplies for the Shanghai industrial zone.

China's market for environmental goods and services is about $32 billion (euro25.6 billion) annually, according to the U.S. government's Office of Energy and Environmental Industries. Almost $20 billion (euro16 billion) of that involves water treatment.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank have announced new loans for almost $750 million (euro600 million) in new cleanup projects in just the past month. Some involve simple approaches such as building terraces for fields and replanting forests. But many others will require advanced technology.

"China now realizes that environmental cleaning is part of development," said Jean-Louis Chaussade, executive vice president of Suez SA in charge of Suez Environment. "It's an enormous objective. It's huge and it will take a generation," he said.

14:27 27.07.2006

Kina: Oppgradert til stabil.

- 21-25% "bad loans",
- reservene av utenlandsk valuta runder snart US$1.000 mrd (beregnet, ikke alt er US$).

S&P upgrades China on growth outlook, bank reforms

Jul 26, 2006

HONG KONG, July 27 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's raised China's long-term sovereign credit rating on Thursday, rewarding Beijing for cleaning up its banking sector and liberalising the world's fourth-largest economy.

S&P upgraded China by a single notch to A from A-minus, bringing it into line with the assessment of rival Moody's Investors Service. S&P has a stable outlook on China's rating, whereas Moody's on July 7 raised its outlook to positive.

"The upgrade on the ratings on China reflects China's persistent efforts to strengthen the banking sector to reduce the future fiscal burden, as well as China's continuing economic liberalisation and reform that will further entrench excellent growth prospects," S&P said.

The ratings agency, which last upgraded China on July 19, 2005, also raised its rating on Hong Kong to AA from AA-minus.

"The higher credit rating on China reduces the likelihood of potential negative developments in China spilling over to Hong Kong and adversely affecting its credit standing," S&P said.

Andrew Freris, chief Asia-Pacific economist for BNP Paribas, said the upgrade was no surprise given that China has a huge external surplus and is a booming economy with low inflation.

"The most important thing is China's external debt is around $318 billion and they have foreign exchange reserves of $941 billion. China is a net lender to the world to the tune of $623 billion -- primarily to the U.S.

"The reserves have been continuously increasing, while foreign debt has been modestly stable with small rises," he said.

China's economy grew 11.3 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1995. Its trade surplus hit a record $14.5 billion in June.

This high growth rate has given China the fiscal firepower to clean up its banking system, where non-performing assets have fallen to a range of 21 to 25 percent of total loans, a proportion that S&P said was likely to fall further.

"Foreign participation in China's financial system will also help to spread best practices, which in turn will improve the performance of the banking sector's credit underwriting," the agency said.
14:49 27.07.2006

Oil Is Like Milk; China Has No Need to Buy Cows: Andy Mukherjee

Andy Mukherjee

July 27 (Bloomberg) -- If your life depended on drinking a glass of milk every day, would you buy a cow?

That's the question Chinese planners must ask themselves as they evaluate their push to buy energy assets from Sudan and Angola to Iran, an effort that has prompted the country's state- owned oil companies to spend $15 billion in the past five years.

Agreed, the world's second-biggest auto market after the U.S. needs every drop of oil it can get. And China isn't the only country that has begun to equate energy security with physical possession of oil-producing assets.

On July 18, I wrote about a copycat drive by India.

Whereas the Chinese have bought more than 100 oil fields and companies in the past five years, the Indians have been largely unsuccessful in their quest. In the past year alone, state-owned Indian oil companies have lost at least five deals to their Chinese and Korean counterparts.

The issue, however, is more complex than who's succeeding and who's not. What needs to be considered is whether it makes sense for any Asian nation to make the purchase of energy- producing assets a cornerstone of its foreign policy when the economics of this global oil-hunt may itself be dubious.

According to three McKinsey & Co. consultants, if China manages to keep domestic production from its aging fields at the current level, it will need to buy 3 percent of the world's proven petroleum assets -- more than the combined reserves of BP Plc, Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA -- to meet projected demand until 2025.

"Even if it were possible to buy all the reserves China is likely to need, the investment probably wouldn't be a smart one," Ivo Bozon, Subbu Narayanswamy and Jonathan Woetzel wrote in a special China edition of the McKinsey Quarterly.

Paying Premium Prices

``A much more efficient and less costly strategy would be to reform the state-controlled petroleum sector, open it to foreign investment, and integrate the country into the global system that supplies Japan, the U.S. and other big energy consumers,'' Bozon, Narayanswamy and Woetzel said.

According to the McKinsey consultants' estimates, Chinese national oil companies pay at least a 10th more than their international rivals for foreign reserves.

Why are they paying this premium? How does buying oil fields in Sudan -- and risking relations with the U.S. in the bargain -- secure China's energy supplies?

Of what use would China's overseas investments be if, say in the event of a world war, its enemies gained control of the Straits of Malacca, the chokepoint through which four-fifths of the oil used by China passes?

Value and Vulnerability

Even if China were promised home delivery of all the overseas crude it needed, where would it receive the commodity and how would it be refined?

"To keep up with surging demand, the country needs to build a large, technologically world-class refinery every year for the next 15 years, at a cost of about $2 billion apiece," the McKinsey researchers said.


Real Security

For Asian nations, buying oil assets is a political project. Perhaps politicians have a sharper assessment of future security risks than the market. Or, what's more likely, they are just being overanxious and bidding up prices of even marginal assets.


The world has invested significant resources in creating a global energy network that makes oil a traded commodity.

There's nothing to be gained in bypassing the network, even if it could be done. The idea should be to find the most efficient way to embrace it.

If you need milk every day, you should buy a refrigerator. A cow in the backyard would be too much.

(Andy Mukherjee is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
11:57 28.07.2006

In India, 'next great' industrial story - "Made in China" may be getting a new rival

As global manufacturers seek new places to plant their flags, India - where factories have long been conspicuous for their relative absence - is seeing early stirrings of an industrial renaissance. The effects could be profound for India's vast number of poor people, and for the international sourcing of goods from cars to bras.

For decades, manufacturing in India has been hobbled by antiquated labor laws, creaking infrastructure and paperwork. The new economy of call centers and software campuses arrived to buoy the relatively privileged, but for many of the three-quarters of Indians with less than middle-school education, few factories meant few jobs.

Across India, total exports - mostly manufactured goods - are rising at a 26 percent annual clip, the Commerce Ministry reported recently. The manufacturing sector is growing at 9.4 percent annually, compared with 6 percent a year from 1991 to 2004, according to the Finance Ministry.

Special economic zones - the same enclaves of relative economic freedom that spearheaded China's export-led industrialization - are now spreading here, providing tax holidays, more control over infrastructure like water and power and less regulation. At least 75 zones are in the works, with more than a dozen already operating.

This kind of pilot-project recalls how China once tested new policies and created an appetite for them nationwide, said Li Kui-wai, an economist at Hong Kong University.




[Endret 28.07.06 12:11 av grong2]
22:22 31.07.2006

China, India moving ahead of the pack

HONG KONG - The United States, China and India will together account for more than 50% of global economic growth between 2005 and 2020, with Asia's overall share of the world economy rising to 43% from its current 35%, according to the "Foresight 2020" study conducted by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and sponsored by Nasdaq-listed Cisco Systems.

The next 15 years will see a significant outpacing by Asia, and particularly the powerhouses of China and India, of the rest of the developing world in gross domestic product (GDP), wages and consumption power. The Foresight 2020 study projects the continued rapid growth of China, with it matching the US as the world's largest consumer market in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) by 2020.

However, the report also projects continued economic primacy for the United States, saying: "The US will remain the most important single country across all the dimensions of power as [the] result of the size of its GDP, its military might, internal cohesion and persistent technological lead."

10:42 01.08.2006

China, Largest Command Economy, Isn't Responding to Commands

July 31 (Bloomberg) -- China's leaders are finding that the world's largest command economy no longer responds to their commands.

Growth is hurtling along at the fastest pace in a decade, defying official efforts to curb investment in unneeded factories and real-estate projects. The government's immediate concerns are that overheated growth will saddle China with excess capacity, create more asset bubbles, and increase friction with the U.S. and other trading partners.

In Beijing, an airport terminal under construction will be bigger than all five terminals at London's Heathrow Airport combined. The capital will also add an estimated 1 billion square feet of high-end property by 2008, according to Jack Rodman, a partner at Ernst & Young in Beijing.
``I keep wondering where all the demand is going to come from for all this expensive office space,'' says Rodman.

In the banking system, measures taken so far to curb lending ``are like taking a spoonful of water from an overflowing swimming pool,'' says Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong.

Outstanding yuan-denominated loans on June 30 stood at 21.5 trillion yuan ($2.7 trillion), 15.2 percent higher than a year earlier. New yuan lending in the first half totaled 2.18 trillion yuan, approaching the central bank's full-year target of 2.5 trillion yuan.

China's banks carry more than 1.3 trillion yuan ($163 billion) of non-performing loans, exceeding 8 percent of those on their books, according to Moody's Investors Services. Moody's rates the financial strength of Chinese banks E+, on par with Pakistan's and Ukraine's.

18:50 02.08.2006

Emerging Giants

These new contenders hail from seemingly unlikely places, developing nations such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and even Egypt and South Africa. They are shaking up entire industries, from farm equipment and refrigerators to aircraft and telecom services, and changing the rules of global competition.

Unlike Japanese and Korean conglomerates, which benefited from protection and big profits at home before they took on the world, these are mostly companies that have prevailed in brutally competitive domestic markets, where local companies have to duke it out with homegrown rivals and Western multinationals every day.

As a result, these emerging champions must make profits at price levels unheard of in the U.S. or Europe. Indian generic drugmakers, for example, often charge customers in their home market as little as 1% to 2% of what people pay in the U.S. Cellular outfits in North Africa, Brazil, and India offer phone service for pennies per minute. Yet these companies often thrive in such tough environments. Egyptian cellular operator Orascom boasts margins of 49%; Mahindra's pretax profit rose 81% last year.

Some already are marquee names. Lenovo Group, the Chinese computer maker, made waves last year by buying IBM's $11 billion PC business. Indian software outfits Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, and Wipro have revolutionized the $650 billion technology services industry. Johannesburg brewer SABMiller PLC is challenging Anheuser-Busch Cos.' leadership right in the U.S.

These companies are just the first wave. The biggest international cellular provider? Soon it may be Mexico's América Móvil, which boasts more than 100 million Latin American subscribers and led BusinessWeek's latest rankings of the world's top information technology companies. Never heard of Hong Kong's Techtronic Industries Ltd.? If you buy power tools at Home Depot Inc., where its products now fill the aisles, you probably know some of the brands it manufactures: Ryobi, Milwaukee, and RIDGID.

That leaves the new multinationals in a strong position. Over the next decade, the World Bank projects, developing nations' share of world gross domestic product is expected to grow from one-fifth to one-third. During the next two decades, predicts Goldman, Sachs & Co., China, India, Brazil, and Russia alone will add to their populations some 225 million consumers who earn at least $15,000 a year. That's more than the combined population of Germany and Japan.

How can Western multinationals respond? The first step is to begin respecting the new competition. That is the attitude David C. Everitt, president of Deere's $10.5 billion agricultural division, is adopting toward Mahindra. Everitt concedes the Indian rival could someday pass Deere in global unit sales. Mahindra dominates the Indian market, which is bigger even than America's, and is especially strong in the small tractors that account for two-thirds of U.S. sales.

No matter how the big U.S. companies respond, gone is the era when they could afford to wait for an emerging market to ripen, then count on their ability to roll over the unsophisticated local players. "If you don't participate in these markets, you not only miss opportunities but also are cut out of all the innovation that comes from competing there," says University of Michigan management strategist C.K. Prahalad. "Then you won't be able to withstand the pressure when these companies come and hit you here." Whether one chooses to confront or collaborate, the new multinationals are set to change the rules in industry after industry.


Slideshow versjon
19:03 02.08.2006

China and India Tech Plays: An S&P Roundup

19:16 02.08.2006

re. grong [939],

morsom artikkel. Tar et annet klipp:

Emerging Giants

By Pete Engardio, with Michael Arndt in Chicago and Geri Smith in São José dos Campos, Brazil
BusinessWeek Online

Like other rural residents of southern Mississippi, Jamie Lucenberg, 35, faced a huge cleanup job last fall in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. He needed a tractor fast to clear debris and trees from his 17-acre family farm, just 16 miles north of devastated Biloxi. "We literally had to cut our way up and down the blacktop roads," recalls Lucenberg.

But rather than buy an American-made John Deere or New Holland, brands he grew up with, Lucenberg chose a shiny red Mahindra 5500 made by India's Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. "I have been around equipment all my life," says Lucenberg, who also used the tractor to earn extra money clearing destroyed homes along the Gulf Coast.

But for $27,000, complete with a front loader, the 54-hp Mahindra "is by far the best for the money. It has more power and heavier steel," Lucenberg says. "When you lock it into four-wheel drive, you can move 3,000 pounds like nothing. That thing's an animal." The local dealership in nearby Saucier, Miss. (population 1,300), figures it has sold 300 Mahindras in the past four months.

Surprised that a company from India is penetrating a U.S. market long dominated by venerable names like Deere & Co.? Then it's time to take a look at how globalization has come full circle. A new breed of ambitious multinational is rising on the world scene, presenting both challenges and opportunities for established global players.

Mahindra & Mahindra er et av Stensrud nøkkelselskap i Kon-Tiki fondet.

Aksjen må ha 3-4 doblet seg siden han begynte å kjøpe.

Dette indiske selskapet er sidenotert på LSE, London.

De er ikke "helt borte" i Stavanger, nei.
15:26 03.08.2006

Ja, jeg har endel felles synspunkter og vurderinger med noe av det Skagenfondene gjør. De er flinke på flere områder. Morsom traktor historie ja :)

China asserts itself as leader of Third World

Harare - On a parade ground in the Zimbabwean capital the national commissioner of police recently told police academy graduates that they should learn Chinese.

And why not? African regimes such as Zimbabwe, largely shunned by the West, are turning to China for economic and political salvation.

Trade between China and Africa has increased more than 300 percent since 2000.

John Robertson, an independent economist in Harare.
"My biggest fear is that Zimbabwe has become so weakened that at some stage the Chinese will say: 'We can bail you out,' and in exchange we not only will repay money but sell their products in the region.
In December, Nigerian officials shut down several shopping centres run by Chinese traders in Lagos.

Even in South Africa, unions, fearful of job losses, especially in the clothing and textile industries, are pressing the government to renegotiate trade agreements with China.

But Friedman believes that despite any resentment in the streets, corrupt and repressive African governments that have nowhere else to turn will look more and more to China for political legitimacy and protection.

Even if China has offered little political help so far, it presents itself as a leader of the third world.

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